politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is a good bet at current odds
Those who have followed PB for four years and more will remember some of the tips from Labour insider, Henry G Manson, and I am amongst a number who have benefitted from them.
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Quelle fucking surprise.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1212725650878017536?s=20
The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
This provides further evidence that many (if not most) members not voting on ideological lines.
People worried about NEC - I'm not sure any action by NEC will make any difference.
https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/detectives-probing-attempted-murder-duty-17504633
1.) Unlike in 2016, when they were out of the gate quickly and had both Eagle and Smith on the back foot before they've started, the Corbynistas aren't totally in sync this time, for a number of reasons. One big one is the scale of the defeat and the fairly strong evidence Brexit wasn't the main factor behind it. They haven't quite nobbled Starmer as they might have hoped and RLB has been more tepid in the strength of her early interventions, almost as if she is a bit worried she'll drive away some remainy Corbyn supporters. There's also just the fact that Corbyn's personality and bromide-filled rhetoric had the unintended, or otherwise, effect of uniting groups of people on the Labour left who rarely agree on anything. A vegan Glastonbury-goer with his own line of hemp cycling clothes from Dalston is not going to agree with Ian Lavery, or even RLB in the same way they did peace-loving Saint Jez of Islington.
2.) This might almost make the contest pretty open as there will be big push back against Starmer at some point. They're not giving up the party without a fight, which will mean he doesn't walk it, and could mean a Nandy gets a look in if she (as expected) gets on the ballot and he falters a bit.
Going forward, Labour's big problem is that to solve their ills Labour almost need three leaders doing different, and actually contradictory things. One to tell hard truths, kick out or deter the cranks that have poisoned the party, one to try and unify and avoid an out and out civil war, another to convince the public it has changed. Good luck with all that - but Nandy may ultimately come closest to fitting the bill as a refusenik who isn't as abrasive to members as Philips, and slightly more pugnacious and willing to challenge members' received views on issues than Starmer.
https://dominiccummings.com/
People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates but more genuine cognitive diversity.
So yes, Cummings should have some things that are somewhat more useful than that.
"Great project managers", "Communicators", "Policy experts". He's on the money with those, I think. I imagine it could be an interesting challenge for people with those skills. I get the impression Cummings is actually quite a good project manager.
Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.
Re-inventing government wholesale..... ?
I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’
Good night.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/02/next-labour-leader-lets-do-the-time-warp-again/
Few of those people are actually open minded. I hope I'm wrong, and Cummings is coming in and saying "I don't know what the best way to structure education/prison/etc is, but let's run a series of trials and see what works."
I hope I'm wrong.
Wrong-Daily is the dream opposition leader, but Starmer vs Boris would I suspect be no contest either.
What a job it would be though, helluva ride and you'd make a fortune on the book/film deal afterwards.
https://twitter.com/sportingintel/status/1212856034135564289
And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.
I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.
His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.
Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.
He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.
I think Nandy has a chance.
Even though she is well to the right of the Membership her Brexit views are attractive to me.
I would say there is a real chance i could vote for her depending on what she says in the Campaign about other non Brexit issues.
If she hadn't been part of the Chicken Coup she would definitely have my vote as it is i guess there is a circa 50% chance I will vote for her.
Has this person read any of Cummings blog posts?
I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
With either sex
Indeed she does rather remind me of an ex-girlfriend (pre Mrs Mrs Foxy of course!) Who went for a CND protest at Greenham Common, and came back as an out lesbian...
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
Starmer may well be good at fisking BoZo in parliament, but either Rayner or Jess would get my juices flowing.
https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-tories-drop-third-teacher-vote.
A poll taken just before the 2010 election had the Tories narrowly in front.
They lost that at the 2015 election
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/golden-globes-serve-plant-based-140421353.html
Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.
This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.
https://twitter.com/scottbix/status/1212829106909392897
There's a disconnect in perceptions.
Edit. The same point will apply to Brexit. Never mind whether any of this works. It's the new normal.
Indeed I found this rather thought provoking thread earlier, and with a whiff of truth to it:
https://twitter.com/Archimbaldo/status/1212446235560427522?s=19
Doesn’t mean I want his clone running the British government,
"Boris Johnson's top aide Dominic Cummings posts bizarre job advert urging 'super-talented weirdos' to work for him as he unveils plans for Number 10 shake-up - but warns that he'll 'bin you within weeks if you don't fit'"
'bizarre' is not a good word for a senior aide. Added to which Cummings is attempting to disprove Cambell's second law.
Ditch the Benny from Crossroads look.
By comparison Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper saw falls of over 20%.
If a dozen more Labour MPs had voted the same as Caroline Flint in the HoC then we wouldn't now have a Boris majority government.
I came across SWERF recently.