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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is a good bet at current odds

Those who have followed PB for four years and more will remember some of the tips from Labour insider, Henry G Manson, and I am amongst a number who have benefitted from them.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • What about her hair?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    In theory could the NEC insist on an all woman shortlist?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    Too nice!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    I think she is good value at these prices.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    What about her hair?

    She has more than William Hague, another young leader.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    I have a valid bet on Lisa dated 21 Nov 2015 at 11s. It's probably my oldest current bet on Betfair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Nandy currently polls last with Labour members so she has a long way to go if she is to win

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1212725650878017536?s=20
  • Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Cummings has an excessive interest in consequentialist blogger men and the men who pay them, not realising that they themselves flit from being interested in the merits of innovation one month, the merits of conservatism next month, obsessive specialism this month, general ability next month, depending on basically: 1. keeping readers interested with novelty and 2. which man or men Peter Thiel is giving out money to today. Essentially I think working for Cummings unbound would be interesting until you tell him something you think is true and he doesn't - it does not actually look like a job ad written for a no-man, ironically enough!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    For example, today's story was that Cummings wants to set civil servants regular exams. In a recent blog, Cummings says you should set exercises on the SlateStarCodex blog. SlateStarCodex describes feminists as "literally Voldemort". So as a civil servant, do you tell Cummings what he wants to hear and do you say that feminism is evil or not? I'm not worried because I think this stuff will be aborted by the fact that 365 Tory MPs are not actually interested in the shotstorm that would follow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Interesting that Starmer and RLB both get the same amount of transfers from Lewis - even though Lewis much closer to RLB politically.

    This provides further evidence that many (if not most) members not voting on ideological lines.

    People worried about NEC - I'm not sure any action by NEC will make any difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Dom of course is an Oxford History graduate
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    HYUFD said:

    Dom of course is an Oxford History graduate
    Not sure even his mother calls him Dom....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Or perhaps they just have no one left who can get the printer to work ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    Far better ??
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    I think this is strong advice given we're so early in the race, despite the YouGov. I think there's a couple of early thoughts.

    1.) Unlike in 2016, when they were out of the gate quickly and had both Eagle and Smith on the back foot before they've started, the Corbynistas aren't totally in sync this time, for a number of reasons. One big one is the scale of the defeat and the fairly strong evidence Brexit wasn't the main factor behind it. They haven't quite nobbled Starmer as they might have hoped and RLB has been more tepid in the strength of her early interventions, almost as if she is a bit worried she'll drive away some remainy Corbyn supporters. There's also just the fact that Corbyn's personality and bromide-filled rhetoric had the unintended, or otherwise, effect of uniting groups of people on the Labour left who rarely agree on anything. A vegan Glastonbury-goer with his own line of hemp cycling clothes from Dalston is not going to agree with Ian Lavery, or even RLB in the same way they did peace-loving Saint Jez of Islington.

    2.) This might almost make the contest pretty open as there will be big push back against Starmer at some point. They're not giving up the party without a fight, which will mean he doesn't walk it, and could mean a Nandy gets a look in if she (as expected) gets on the ballot and he falters a bit.

    Going forward, Labour's big problem is that to solve their ills Labour almost need three leaders doing different, and actually contradictory things. One to tell hard truths, kick out or deter the cranks that have poisoned the party, one to try and unify and avoid an out and out civil war, another to convince the public it has changed. Good luck with all that - but Nandy may ultimately come closest to fitting the bill as a refusenik who isn't as abrasive to members as Philips, and slightly more pugnacious and willing to challenge members' received views on issues than Starmer.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about. He just might. One to watch.

    https://dominiccummings.com/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about.
    Easy answer. No.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Cummings could do worse than consult many on here. I could not agree more with this comment:

    People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates but more genuine cognitive diversity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    HYUFD said:

    Dom of course is an Oxford History graduate
    Not a guarantee of much, tbh. It’s not even the best History course in Oxford.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    Far better ??
    One presumes what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice drops straight into the WC, as it does for the rest of us.

    So yes, Cummings should have some things that are somewhat more useful than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    Far better ??
    One presumes what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice drops straight into the WC, as it does for the rest of us...
    That, surely, counts in its favour ?
  • Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about. He just might. One to watch.

    https://dominiccummings.com/
    Type his name into Youtube and hear it from the horse's mouth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about. He just might. One to watch.

    https://dominiccummings.com/
    Type his name into Youtube and hear it from the horse's mouth.
    Mouth ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about.
    Easy answer. No.
    You're probably right. But it looks as if he wants to surround himself with people who DO understand this stuff. It is evidence driven disruptive systems thinking and problem solving. It is the pole opposite of collegiate consensus building and conventional thinking. The MOD will love it - not.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    Funnily enough, I have quite a lot of the skills he is looking for. I wouldn't touch the proposition with a bargepole. It is all solutions looking for problems and no direction or focus. It would be a frustrating experience, where you don't achieve anything.

    "Great project managers", "Communicators", "Policy experts". He's on the money with those, I think. I imagine it could be an interesting challenge for people with those skills. I get the impression Cummings is actually quite a good project manager.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited January 2020

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    He can do it at the new MANCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY. Which is also where it seems they will be recruiting most of their new civil servants from. :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I agree, unfortunately it was an easy opportunity and I'm weak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about.
    Easy answer. No.
    You're probably right. But it looks as if he wants to surround himself with people who DO understand this stuff. It is evidence driven disruptive systems thinking and problem solving. It is the pole opposite of collegiate consensus building and conventional thinking. The MOD will love it - not.
    Ummmm...I am going from bitter past experience and I will still go with ‘no.’ He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about.
    Easy answer. No.
    You're probably right. But it looks as if he wants to surround himself with people who DO understand this stuff. It is evidence driven disruptive systems thinking and problem solving. It is the pole opposite of collegiate consensus building and conventional thinking. The MOD will love it - not.
    But if the answer is reduce NHS spending - you are canned. And if the answer is anything that might irk the people who hate feminism and gender identity - canned. So disruptive, but we all know there is a right answer being sought to this boffinry at the end. Cummings is himself an employee, after all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    edited January 2020

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    He can do it at the new MANCHESTER INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY. Which is also where it seems they will be recruiting most of their new civil servants from. :)
    He will get his MITS on the civil service?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    FF43 said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    Funnily enough, I have quite a lot of the skills he is looking for. I wouldn't touch the proposition with a bargepole. It is all solutions looking for problems and no direction or focus. It would be a frustrating experience, where you don't achieve anything.

    "Great project managers", "Communicators", "Policy experts". He's on the money with those, I think. I imagine it could be an interesting challenge for people with those skills. I get the impression Cummings is actually quite a good project manager.
    Where is is managing >a< project, perhaps.
    Re-inventing government wholesale..... ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about.
    Easy answer. No.
    You're probably right. But it looks as if he wants to surround himself with people who DO understand this stuff. It is evidence driven disruptive systems thinking and problem solving. It is the pole opposite of collegiate consensus building and conventional thinking. The MOD will love it - not.
    Ummmm...I am going from bitter past experience and I will still go with ‘no.’ He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.
    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,763
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    Funnily enough, I have quite a lot of the skills he is looking for. I wouldn't touch the proposition with a bargepole. It is all solutions looking for problems and no direction or focus. It would be a frustrating experience, where you don't achieve anything.

    "Great project managers", "Communicators", "Policy experts". He's on the money with those, I think. I imagine it could be an interesting challenge for people with those skills. I get the impression Cummings is actually quite a good project manager.
    Where is is managing >a< project, perhaps.
    Re-inventing government wholesale..... ?
    It's ironic isn't it? Where the project is, say, get Johnson elected, he's good: clear objectives, focused on delivery, everyone on message and working together. Then he produces this guff (although I accept he has some good ideas buried in the nonsense).
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Barnesian said:

    I have a valid bet on Lisa dated 21 Nov 2015 at 11s. It's probably my oldest current bet on Betfair.

    Meh. Johnny-come-lately :smiley:

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/02/next-labour-leader-lets-do-the-time-warp-again/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    kinabalu said:

    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.

    I am on record as saying Nandy would be the most dangerous for the Tories to have to confront.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    ydoethur said:

    Ummmm...I am going from bitter past experience and I will still go with ‘no.’ He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Many people say they want evidence based policy making.

    Few of those people are actually open minded. I hope I'm wrong, and Cummings is coming in and saying "I don't know what the best way to structure education/prison/etc is, but let's run a series of trials and see what works."

    I hope I'm wrong.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    kinabalu said:

    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.

    I am on record as saying Nandy would be the most dangerous for the Tories to have to confront.
    I said exactly the same to a pal today. I'd be worried by Nandy, Creasy or Jarvis.

    Wrong-Daily is the dream opposition leader, but Starmer vs Boris would I suspect be no contest either.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    He seems an utterly frustrated wanna be data scientist to me. Perhaps Dom should retire and do a mature student MSc at MIT or Stanford.
    Yes it reads like that to me as well.
    What a job it would be though, helluva ride and you'd make a fortune on the book/film deal afterwards.
  • tlg86 said:

    Cummings could do worse than consult many on here. I could not agree more with this comment:

    People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates but more genuine cognitive diversity.

    Isn't Dom a humanities graduate from Oxford?
  • Not quite, pans have sex with her.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    I believe that's called adding insult to injury.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    tlg86 said:

    Cummings could do worse than consult many on here. I could not agree more with this comment:

    People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates but more genuine cognitive diversity.

    Isn't Dom a humanities graduate from Oxford?
    It's always about the self hatred with revolutionary types.
  • There is an interesting programme on channel 5, although 5+1 If you want to watch most of it.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    On Topic

    I think Nandy has a chance.

    Even though she is well to the right of the Membership her Brexit views are attractive to me.

    I would say there is a real chance i could vote for her depending on what she says in the Campaign about other non Brexit issues.

    If she hadn't been part of the Chicken Coup she would definitely have my vote as it is i guess there is a circa 50% chance I will vote for her.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Coherent?

    Has this person read any of Cummings blog posts?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    EPG said:

    Cummings has an excessive interest in consequentialist blogger men and the men who pay them, not realising that they themselves flit from being interested in the merits of innovation one month, the merits of conservatism next month, obsessive specialism this month, general ability next month, depending on basically: 1. keeping readers interested with novelty and 2. which man or men Peter Thiel is giving out money to today. Essentially I think working for Cummings unbound would be interesting until you tell him something you think is true and he doesn't - it does not actually look like a job ad written for a no-man, ironically enough!

    He has that SeanT/child-like credulous wonder at the power of technology.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Cummings could do worse than consult many on here. I could not agree more with this comment:

    People in SW1 talk a lot about ‘diversity’ but they rarely mean ‘true cognitive diversity’. They are usually babbling about ‘gender identity diversity blah blah’. What SW1 needs is not more drivel about ‘identity’ and ‘diversity’ from Oxbridge humanities graduates but more genuine cognitive diversity.

    https://twitter.com/gordonguthrie/status/1212817756271321093?s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Alistair said:

    EPG said:

    Cummings has an excessive interest in consequentialist blogger men and the men who pay them, not realising that they themselves flit from being interested in the merits of innovation one month, the merits of conservatism next month, obsessive specialism this month, general ability next month, depending on basically: 1. keeping readers interested with novelty and 2. which man or men Peter Thiel is giving out money to today. Essentially I think working for Cummings unbound would be interesting until you tell him something you think is true and he doesn't - it does not actually look like a job ad written for a no-man, ironically enough!

    He has that SeanT/child-like credulous wonder at the power of technology.
    I agree with that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    Agreed.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dom's blogs are a damn sight longer.

    The funny thing about Dom is that you can imagine a lot of what he says coming out of Jeremy Corbyn's office. Both Dom and Seamus rail against the London consensus, excessive CEO pay and the Cameron governments, for instance.
    Glad you said 'office'.
    Much though I despise Cummings, what comes off his keyboard is far better than what comes out of Corbyn’s orifice.
    I'm going to follow Cummings blog. Fascinating. Lots of stuff I'm interested in. He must scare the living daylights out of the "establishment"! I wonder if he really understands what he's talking about. He just might. One to watch.

    https://dominiccummings.com/
    His post from the start of the year that was widely quoted about defence procurment, AI and the Chinese is a ball of gibberish wrapped up in a bow of buzzwords stuffed in a box of nonsense.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    edited January 2020
    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    I think Layla Moran is the best chance of a LD bounce

    With either sex
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Watching Bancroft. Not great but Francesca Annis looking mighty fine at 74.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    kinabalu said:

    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.

    I am on record as saying Nandy would be the most dangerous for the Tories to have to confront.
    She wouldn't, a lettuce has more personality and she voted against the Withdrawal Agreement on every occasion so has no real appeal to Leavers either
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    I think Layla Moran is the best chance of a LD bounce

    With either sex
    I do rather like her geek-chic, sexy librarian look.

    Indeed she does rather remind me of an ex-girlfriend (pre Mrs Mrs Foxy of course!) Who went for a CND protest at Greenham Common, and came back as an out lesbian...
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    I think Layla Moran is the best chance of a LD bounce

    With either sex
    I do rather like her geek-chic, sexy librarian look.
    More of a Heidi Allen man, myself :blush:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    I think Layla Moran is the best chance of a LD bounce

    With either sex
    I do rather like her geek-chic, sexy librarian look.

    Indeed she does rather remind me of an ex-girlfriend (pre Mrs Mrs Foxy of course!) Who went for a CND protest at Greenham Common, and came back as an out lesbian...
    That geeky look just puts me right off her tbh. It's irrational, I know but there it is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.

    I am on record as saying Nandy would be the most dangerous for the Tories to have to confront.
    She wouldn't, a lettuce has more personality and she voted against the Withdrawal Agreement on every occasion so has no real appeal to Leavers either
    I agree. Nandy has shown neither leadership nor charisma, and no Labour leaver will be Leave enough for the frothers, as Caroline Flint found out.

    Starmer may well be good at fisking BoZo in parliament, but either Rayner or Jess would get my juices flowing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    I think Layla Moran is the best chance of a LD bounce

    With either sex
    I do rather like her geek-chic, sexy librarian look.

    Indeed she does rather remind me of an ex-girlfriend (pre Mrs Mrs Foxy of course!) Who went for a CND protest at Greenham Common, and came back as an out lesbian...
    That geeky look just puts me right off her tbh. It's irrational, I know but there it is.
    She does have some star quality, and that does expand the number of recognizable LD faces and presence in the media.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
    And last month... ???
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    She has said the revoke policy was wrong though, if you are ever going to vote LD I doubt you would be bothered about pansexuality, which I had to google and apparently is basically bisexuality but based on emotional rather than physical attraction
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
    That's kind of it isn't it. If you think Gove's reforms of education were super then you are probably well disposed to Cummings aggressive approach. If you think they were an ill thought out disaster with a barely disguised level of cronyism and financial waste that led to schools being asset stripped and bankrupted then you may take a dimmer view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2020

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
    And last month... ???
    49% Labour, 22% LD, 14% Tory, the working class vote may have gone Tory as did the country, the teachers vote remains as leftwing as ever.
    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-tories-drop-third-teacher-vote.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
    And last month... ???
    49% Labour, 22% LD, 14% Tory, the working class vote may have gone Tory as did the country, the teachers vote remains as leftwing as ever.
    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-tories-drop-third-teacher-vote.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-as-a-teacher-teachers-shun-the-coalition-after-years-of-michael-gove-10189930.html

    A poll taken just before the 2010 election had the Tories narrowly in front.

    They lost that at the 2015 election
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
    That's kind of it isn't it. If you think Gove's reforms of education were super then you are probably well disposed to Cummings aggressive approach. If you think they were an ill thought out disaster with a barely disguised level of cronyism and financial waste that led to schools being asset stripped and bankrupted then you may take a dimmer view.
    As this was Cummings only real experience in government, it would be interesting to have a forensic look at the results. What are the rewards of failure?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Golden Globes to serve a fully vegan meal for Sunday's awards show
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/golden-globes-serve-plant-based-140421353.html
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    I believe that's called adding insult to injury.
    Putting the bi into oxford west and abingdon.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If you play office politics, you will be discovered and immediately binned.


    Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.

    This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    OT I got excited about this candidacy for a few minutes during one of the earlier debates but with hindsight it wasn't my best ever call:

    https://twitter.com/scottbix/status/1212829106909392897
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Alistair said:

    If you play office politics, you will be discovered and immediately binned.


    Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.

    This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.

    Either that, or it’s a direct threat to depose the PM ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited January 2020
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
    That's kind of it isn't it. If you think Gove's reforms of education were super then you are probably well disposed to Cummings aggressive approach. If you think they were an ill thought out disaster with a barely disguised level of cronyism and financial waste that led to schools being asset stripped and bankrupted then you may take a dimmer view.
    As this was Cummings only real experience in government, it would be interesting to have a forensic look at the results. What are the rewards of failure?
    But that's the point. On his terms, Cummings succeeded. He got schools out of the dead hand of local authorities all serving the same product. Those schools will never go back.

    There's a disconnect in perceptions.

    Edit. The same point will apply to Brexit. Never mind whether any of this works. It's the new normal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    edited January 2020
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
    And last month... ???
    49% Labour, 22% LD, 14% Tory, the working class vote may have gone Tory as did the country, the teachers vote remains as leftwing as ever.
    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-tories-drop-third-teacher-vote.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-as-a-teacher-teachers-shun-the-coalition-after-years-of-michael-gove-10189930.html

    A poll taken just before the 2010 election had the Tories narrowly in front.

    They lost that at the 2015 election
    In 2010, The Tories were ahead with Doctors too. The idea that the public sector is Red is rather simplistic.

    Indeed I found this rather thought provoking thread earlier, and with a whiff of truth to it:

    https://twitter.com/Archimbaldo/status/1212446235560427522?s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
    That's kind of it isn't it. If you think Gove's reforms of education were super then you are probably well disposed to Cummings aggressive approach. If you think they were an ill thought out disaster with a barely disguised level of cronyism and financial waste that led to schools being asset stripped and bankrupted then you may take a dimmer view.
    As this was Cummings only real experience in government, it would be interesting to have a forensic look at the results. What are the rewards of failure?
    But that's the point. On his terms, Cummings succeeded. He got schools out of the dead hand of local authorities all serving the same product. Those schools will never go back.

    There's a disconnect in perceptions.
    On his terms, Lenin succeeded.
    Doesn’t mean I want his clone running the British government,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Cummings frightens the hell out of people because he actually wants to change things. Most people just want an easy life. To go home at the end of the day having caused as little trouble as possible.

    And that is why most people in most industries are risk averse. If you atttempt to be disruptive, you p*ss everyone else off, rock the boat too much and you're out. I imagine this is especially so in the public sector.

    I've followed Cummings blog for a while now and he has an awesome intellect. He is also obsessed with finding problems to fix. Because, for the same reasons as mentioned above, most people have a vested interest in covering them up or pretending they don't exist.

    His biggest problem by far will be institutional resistance. One man can do little in the face of overwhelming bureaucracy, I'm not sure a small team can do much more. His agenda is the total transformation of the government machine from being a slow but steady hand at the tiller to a radical "move fast and break things" approach.

    Much like trying out a hundred banner ads during the election campaign on a tiny audience to ascertain which messages worked best before committing larger spend, I think Cummings plan is to launch a lot of projects simultaneously then focus on the ones that seem to be working.

    He is a smart, smart cookie. He will be up against an enormous bureacracy, but I still wouldn't bet against him.

    I wouldn't bet against Cummings getting his way either. But it may not look like success to the despised stakeholders, who make it all work at the end of the day. Take English education. Cummings achieved what he wanted: local authorities out of the loop, diversification of suppliers etc. But it's all a bit less functional than before.
    That's kind of it isn't it. If you think Gove's reforms of education were super then you are probably well disposed to Cummings aggressive approach. If you think they were an ill thought out disaster with a barely disguised level of cronyism and financial waste that led to schools being asset stripped and bankrupted then you may take a dimmer view.
    As this was Cummings only real experience in government, it would be interesting to have a forensic look at the results. What are the rewards of failure?
    But that's the point. On his terms, Cummings succeeded. He got schools out of the dead hand of local authorities all serving the same product. Those schools will never go back.

    There's a disconnect in perceptions.
    Certainly judging success is a subjective matter, very much depending on what criteria are used.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited January 2020
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    He made all the same noises over education, but ultimately he, Gove and Morgan surrounded themselves with clueless yes-people of limited intellect who just reinforced their own views of their own brilliance. For example, Cummings always says brutal things about the Civil Servaants at the DfE and how he had to ignore them to get anything done. Sound familiar? But because they knew how to play on his emotions and feelings they actually manipulated him into giving them what they wanted - direct control of education from the centre, bypassing local authorities - while, amazingly, conning him into thinking he was overriding and defeating them. And then, because these civil servants are thick, lazy, arrogant and incompetent, the reforms have been a catastrophe and the country is facing a huge wave of teachers’ strikes as staffing drops off a cliff edge.

    Cummings - and Gove, for that matter - would be outstanding reformers and administrators if they did what they said they intended to do. But what they say and what they ultimately do are often two different things, due to their personality flaws and, to be kind, the fairly strict intellectual limitations they work under.

    Very interesting. A concrete example that you have experience of.

    I may be being blinded by an expert bullshitter and hearing what I want to hear. Deja vue all over again. OMG.
    He fooled me, if it’s any help. And many others. A majority of teachers voted Tory in 2010. Not since.

    But as the saying goes, ‘fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me.’

    Good night.
    They didn't, 25% backed Labour, 18% Tory, 14% LD

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
    And last month... ???
    49% Labour, 22% LD, 14% Tory, the working class vote may have gone Tory as did the country, the teachers vote remains as leftwing as ever.
    https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-tories-drop-third-teacher-vote.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/who-should-i-vote-for-as-a-teacher-teachers-shun-the-coalition-after-years-of-michael-gove-10189930.html

    A poll taken just before the 2010 election had the Tories narrowly in front.

    They lost that at the 2015 election
    Even that 2010 poll didn't, it had Labour and the Tories both on 33% with the LDs on 27% with teachers, most teachers never vote Tory
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    DM:

    "Boris Johnson's top aide Dominic Cummings posts bizarre job advert urging 'super-talented weirdos' to work for him as he unveils plans for Number 10 shake-up - but warns that he'll 'bin you within weeks if you don't fit'"

    'bizarre' is not a good word for a senior aide. Added to which Cummings is attempting to disprove Cambell's second law.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    ideasforNo10@gmail.com

    Ditch the Benny from Crossroads look.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited January 2020
    From the Mail piece:

    Speaking ahead of the Lib Dem leadership fight, which is likely to be held in March, Miss Moran said: 'I'm seriously considering running but it's an absolutely massive job, and the effect it has on your friends and family, and the scrutiny on not just you, but also them, means that it's not a decision to be taken lightly.'

    This isn't quite "I'm running" but it's pretty close. It's also quite a genius way of distracting attention from the story about her going the full klobuchar on her boyfriend for forgetting her laptop cable or whatever.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    As one of Moran's constituents, I don't care about her sexual preferences. I do care about her abusive behaviour. And I do care that her new partner has been suspended for forgery. As character tests go, she is not fit to serve as an MP.
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nandy is my hunch too. Soft Left. Woman. Good on TV. Not much baggage. She touched crazy 50 type prices on Betfair earlier. I did not act sadly.

    I am on record as saying Nandy would be the most dangerous for the Tories to have to confront.
    She wouldn't, a lettuce has more personality and she voted against the Withdrawal Agreement on every occasion so has no real appeal to Leavers either
    I agree. Nandy has shown neither leadership nor charisma, and no Labour leaver will be Leave enough for the frothers, as Caroline Flint found out.

    Starmer may well be good at fisking BoZo in parliament, but either Rayner or Jess would get my juices flowing.
    The Labour vote fell by 14.8% in Don Valley, one of the lowest in the 'mining belt'

    By comparison Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper saw falls of over 20%.

    If a dozen more Labour MPs had voted the same as Caroline Flint in the HoC then we wouldn't now have a Boris majority government.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    I think this probably rules her out of the Leadership, not so much the pansexuality, as having a lover at the centre of the email scandal.

    I like Layla, but we need a steadier hand on the tiller of the LDs.
    She has said the revoke policy was wrong though, if you are ever going to vote LD I doubt you would be bothered about pansexuality, which I had to google and apparently is basically bisexuality but based on emotional rather than physical attraction
    Our vocabulary continues to expand.

    I came across SWERF recently.
This discussion has been closed.