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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joi

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  • He's right.
    Especially if you are projected to lose two apples due to them deciding to go and identify as oranges.

    The criticism shouldn’t be about halting the decline in nurses leaving the profession, but how they don’t really have any plan for how they are going to actually stop these nurses leave.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    edited December 2019

    Worth pointing out there are now more female labour MPs than male MPs I believe.


    Tell me why there's still women-only shortlists?
    The feministas will presumably need to find a reason to explain that over the next months.

    I think you will hear the creak of moving goalposts, from those who have built their powerbase on it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,104

    Yup, I don't think this was a very impressive attack line. First because the government were right, secondly because it was an argument about whether the Tories were going to add 50,000 nurses or 30,000 nurses, so the best case if you win was "OK, the Tories are going to add 30,000 nurses, cool". It worked exactly the same way as the famous £350m on the side of the bus.
    I believe that to have been deliberate.
  • I think he’ll be first choice when Mane or Salah aren’t playing this season.

    But eventually he’ll become a first choice.
    You think he'll be picked ahead of Origi? Who's he going to be first choice ahead of? Or just eventually when someone moves on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,335
    On nursing/NHS, what on earth is going on in NI. The waiting times to see a specialist/general situation there sounds in a completely different league to any of the nations on the mainland.
  • Especially if you are projected to lose two apples due to them deciding to go and identify as oranges.

    The criticism shouldn’t be about halting the decline in nurses leaving the profession, but how they don’t really have any plan for how they are going to actually stop these nurses leave.
    Surely letting apples identify as oranges is the Lib Dems policy?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,444

    What is your solution? Ban working class people from going to university? Should we all 'know our place'?
    There doesn’t have to be a solution, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a problem that this is the way it is, there will always be division lines in society.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,387

    Yup, I don't think this was a very impressive attack line. First because the government were right, secondly because it was an argument about whether the Tories were going to add 50,000 nurses or 30,000 nurses, so the best case if you win was "OK, the Tories are going to add 30,000 nurses, cool". It worked exactly the same way as the famous £350m on the side of the bus.
    Red bus syndrome.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,104
    isam said:

    There doesn’t have to be a solution, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a problem that this is the way it is, there will always be division lines in society.
    A right wing view of the world.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,444

    Is this why Boris goes down such a storm with working classes but less so with the middle classes?

    It’s an important thing to remember when labour trying to scratch around for an authentic working class leader to win back support lost to the least working class and least authentic leader in memory.
    I think that’s why, yes. The best, most authentic working class leader for Labour would be a non graduate in my opinion.

  • I am a middle class graduate, I have never thought of working class people as serfs and I have never met any other middle class person who does. I think the class divide is probably the single most damaging aspect of our society, and despise prejudice against any kind of accent.
    I think there is an element of resentment towards the upper and upper middle class (really the latter as the aristocracy is tiny) among people like me, generally a product of having interacted with them at university, where they generally formed their own cliques delineated by money and connections and acted like twats.
    Since I came from a family without much money, went to a comprehensive school and have achieved a degree of educational and material success chiefly as a result of my own hard work, and contribute a six figure sum to the Exchequer every year, I am not going to apologise for being a middle class graduate either, even though we are apparently such awful people.
    I concur, although my contribution is not six figures (seven....if you include the pence). I hope my resentment is actually targeted at those of the upper classes who display excessive entitlement in life rather than all the upper classes, but it is possible prejudices do come into play. Much of it does stem from university and a high proportion of them acting like twats. I have lived in a couple of genuinely poor and rough areas and would feel far more at home watching rugby league in a pub in Workington than a dinner party with the Chelsea set.
  • You think he'll be picked ahead of Origi? Who's he going to be first choice ahead of? Or just eventually when someone moves on?
    No, just given our fixture pile up in the second half of the season, I’d expect the front three to be rotated and Origi, Shaqiri, and Minamino to play a fair bit.

    Minamino is similar to Mane and Salah, so when they aren’t playing he’d be logical choice.
  • Is this why Boris goes down such a storm with working classes but less so with the middle classes?

    It’s an important thing to remember when labour trying to scratch around for an authentic working class leader to win back support lost to the least working class and least authentic leader in memory.
    I think if anything it's more about 'understanding' a person. Both Boris and Cameron were posho's. No way for them to hide it or deny it, and no one would expect them to ever, and they didn't even try to.

    But if people pick up on someone not being 'authentic' then they have dimmer view of those people. Especially, as seems to be the case, people from posher backgrounds putting on a air of being working class. Which a lot of people behind the scenes in Labour do.

    'Everyone hates a tourist' as Pulp said from Common People, which some people seem to be taking as a guide rather than a warning.
  • Jonathan said:

    Are you saying that Cambridge is responsible for his ego? I thought you liked the place.
    That place gives you so much (intellectual) self confidence.

    Burgon went to a comprehensive so it would have been a real boost for him on the confidence front.
  • isam said:

    I think that’s why, yes. The best, most authentic working class leader for Labour would be a non graduate in my opinion.

    We are bumping along the age group of mass numbers of people going to university, that if you didn’t go to university and you are under fifty, questions need to be asked about your capacity to be prime minister. No that there aren’t incredibly talented people who didn’t go to university. But it’s not a badge of honour or lost opportunity.
  • Jonathan said:

    I believe that to have been deliberate.
    #classicdom

    I understand people in here were using that term ironically... it seems we were all played.
  • isam said:

    There doesn’t have to be a solution, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a problem that this is the way it is, there will always be division lines in society.
    You're the one who is complaining about the middle classes, which suggests you think it's a problem!
    Are you still mates with the old Etonians you used to work with? Have you ever been to their house, or received an invitation to their wedding? In my experience these people are perfectly capable of being pleasant to anyone and no doubt enjoyed their visit to your local, but they tend to form a sealed off group.
  • NEW THREAD

  • We are bumping along the age group of mass numbers of people going to university, that if you didn’t go to university and you are under fifty, questions need to be asked about your capacity to be prime minister. No that there aren’t incredibly talented people who didn’t go to university. But it’s not a badge of honour or lost opportunity.
    By similar logic if so many people go to university then university should not be seen as a useful enough qualification for being PM. Questions should be asked about any candidates capacity to be PM. The initial questioner and judge should be the people who work with them on a daily basis over a number of years, not party members who only hear their soundbites.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Brom said:

    Ed Balls had a majority of 1,101 going into the 2015 election when Labour were expected to do better. They didn't and he lost.

    Can't see Cooper becoming leader but can see her on Strictly in 2024.
    I think we're at trough Labour (or whatever the opposite of peak Labour is). Any current Labour MP shouldn't be worried about their seat if they are seriously thinking of becoming PM. The swings that needs should keep their seat comfortably safe.
  • https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1218591/pound-euro-exchange-rate-plummet-general-election-brexit-no-deal

    “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” J Carville.

    It seems that the markets don't seem to be buying into the Tory phrase get Brexit Done so far.

    In our brave world the UK Government will need to start from scratch building its own standalone reputation. This is not quite a start up country but definitely a spin off country. Lets not minimise how large the change is and the risks we face.

    I have decided to switch my next year investment of a new lab from London to Dublin. This will allow me to keep our position as a European Company. Where I will set the HQ is yet to be decided but tax rates will help make the decision.

    Last week our EC registration moved from UK to Brussels. We have been given 6 months to remove all UK registrations from our labels. After this happens our 20 year relationship with the MHRA (Medical Health Regulatory Agency) will cease.


    Labour do not need a campaigner. They need a well educated personality who can sit and comment wisely on the inevitable problems that will occur in the next few years.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,656

    Especially if you are projected to lose two apples due to them deciding to go and identify as oranges.

    The criticism shouldn’t be about halting the decline in nurses leaving the profession, but how they don’t really have any plan for how they are going to actually stop these nurses leave.
    First of all, there isn't a 'decline in nurses leaving the profession; its that there isn't which is the problem!

    However, a question: what is meant by 'leaving the profession.'? Seriously. Is that leaving the NHS, leaving the GNC register or what. Because if it's only leaving the NHS that would include agency nurses, nurses who don't want, perhaps for family reasons, to work regular shifts, or be committed to one hospital.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,335

    I think we're at trough Labour (or whatever the opposite of peak Labour is). Any current Labour MP shouldn't be worried about their seat if they are seriously thinking of becoming PM. The swings that needs should keep their seat comfortably safe.
    Much depends on the next five years. If it goes well and the Brexit party is reduced to UKIP like status, Cooper still has a hell of a defence job on her hands.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    The ERG are not responsible for not getting a soft Brexit! The ERG opposed a soft Brexit and are getting the "real Brexit" they wanted. Remainers still hung up on the ERG confound me, the ERG have won it is the Remainers and those wanting a soft Brexit who have lost now.

    Those who wanted to prevent the ERG from winning should be the ones asking themselves hard questions about where it all went wrong, not the ERG who are getting what they wanted. Just as if Brexit was cancelled the ERG would be the ones needing to ask themselves hard questions, while Remainers will have won.

    The likes of the ERG and Grieve etc went all or nothing. ERG have won it all, Grieve etc are left with nothing.
    Yes the ERG have got what they wanted but not by design. It was Boris and Cummings that won the election, just like it was Boris, Cummings and Gove that won the referendum. The ERG is mainly a collection of cranks, and for most intents and purposes, are a liability. Admittedly they probably did instigate the referendum.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,444

    You're the one who is complaining about the middle classes, which suggests you think it's a problem!
    Are you still mates with the old Etonians you used to work with? Have you ever been to their house, or received an invitation to their wedding? In my experience these people are perfectly capable of being pleasant to anyone and no doubt enjoyed their visit to your local, but they tend to form a sealed off group.
    I’m not complaining about it, just noting it exists
  • felix said:

    Don't the SDLP take the Labour whip?
    They're similar, hence the L.P part of their name stands for Labour Party.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    edited December 2019


    Last week our EC registration moved from UK to Brussels. We have been given 6 months to remove all UK registrations from our labels. After this happens our 20 year relationship with the MHRA (Medical Health Regulatory Agency) will cease.

    So you are pulling out of UK completely - or is that deciding to reregister with MHRA once the Transition period is done?



  • Nah, Boris has made fewer net gains than Dave did in his first election.
    Some really desperate spinning here.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    They have had since April 2017 to think about it...
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Jonathan said:

    Burgon? I reckon he thinks he will be shadow chancellor. One of the greatest mysteries of politics is how his ego got so big despite the brutal reality of his talent.
    He's a Yorkshireman who supports Leeds United ("Champions of Europe")

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    The ERG are not responsible for not getting a soft Brexit! The ERG opposed a soft Brexit and are getting the "real Brexit" they wanted. Remainers still hung up on the ERG confound me, the ERG have won it is the Remainers and those wanting a soft Brexit who have lost now.

    Those who wanted to prevent the ERG from winning should be the ones asking themselves hard questions about where it all went wrong, not the ERG who are getting what they wanted. Just as if Brexit was cancelled the ERG would be the ones needing to ask themselves hard questions, while Remainers will have won.

    The likes of the ERG and Grieve etc went all or nothing. ERG have won it all, Grieve etc are left with nothing.

    The ERG are indeed fanatics and they are not Conservatives either. They definitely got Brexit but not the one, if we are to believe their support for the Conservative Party, that they wanted. They got it at the expense of the sanctity of the Union, which they have placed in peril.

    Great, I hear you and maybe others say, but then again you and others aren't and weren't representatives of the Conservative and Unionist Party.

    So they vanquished the windmill but lost a whole lot more, on their own terms.
  • MattW said:

    So you are pulling out of UK completely - or is that deciding to reregister with MHRA once the Transition period is done?



    This is a great question. So far there have been no plans released for registration of devices in the UK. The UK may set up its own plans or outsource the work to Europe or the USA.

    If the UK sets up its own plans the risk they face is that the supply of goods will become limited. If they outsource it they lose all control of what goods are sold in the UK.



  • This is a great question. So far there have been no plans released for registration of devices in the UK. The UK may set up its own plans or outsource the work to Europe or the USA.

    If the UK sets up its own plans the risk they face is that the supply of goods will become limited. If they outsource it they lose all control of what goods are sold in the UK.

    On a purely selfish view I prefer a Korean style option where UK registration is undertaken by UK authorities and is complex. This will severely restrict competition and allow us to increase dramatically our market share.
  • TOPPING said:

    The ERG are indeed fanatics and they are not Conservatives either. They definitely got Brexit but not the one, if we are to believe their support for the Conservative Party, that they wanted. They got it at the expense of the sanctity of the Union, which they have placed in peril.

    Great, I hear you and maybe others say, but then again you and others aren't and weren't representatives of the Conservative and Unionist Party.

    So they vanquished the windmill but lost a whole lot more, on their own terms.
    No one has won or lost as the final agreement is no more certain than it was 3 years ago. So far we have been arguing internally in the UK but not even started the real business of changing our international relationships.


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,447
    ydoethur said:

    Yes, as a Remainer I have to say the Remainers in Parliament made total wazzocks of themselves. They had the May deal, which was a good deal and would have effectively allowed the BINO that any sensible Remainer would have been angling for. They rejected it, despite being offered everything they were asking for to pass it. They then get Boris Johnson and are amazed when he not only slings Northern Ireland under his infamous bus to sign a much worse deal with the EU, but then uses their own tactics to turn the people against parliament and win a stonking majority for it.

    The Liberal Democrats at least had a clear consistent message, but Starmer was just embarrassing. I am not at all sure he would be a better leader than Wrong Daily.
    If it helps, I agree with you. What makes it personally painful is that I said so at the time (phrases such as "play for the draw" or "everybody gets a bit of poo"). Damn... :(
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,447
    isam said:

    I think that’s why, yes. The best, most authentic working class leader for Labour would be a non graduate in my opinion.

    So you need a non graduate politician of considerable success who is implacably opposed to Boris.

    Pause.

    Er, ... John Major?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,444
    viewcode said:

    So you need a non graduate politician of considerable success who is implacably opposed to Boris.

    Pause.

    Er, ... John Major?
    Angela Rayner?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,335
    The big call for the non sectarian/soft unionist/nationalist/alliance vote is whether or not being a member of the EU outweighs a health system that is (if I understand correctly) some way to the right/insurance side of the NHS.
    But with the NHS in an absolubtely dire state in Northern Ireland and plenty of North of England to lavish the goodies the DUP managed to get off of May instead of in NI that particular argument might seem to have less potency than it might otherwise have done.

    The broad alliance and green votes will be the deciding factor in any unification referendum.
This discussion has been closed.