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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,731
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now surges in the Corbyn successor betting and now joint favourite with Long-Bailey

The betdata.io chart shows another topsy-turvy day in the betting for next LAB leader. After appearing to be out of it the former DPP ex shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer has in the eyes of punters at least moved to be a credible joint favourite. At the same time Loing-Bailey has slipped.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,801
    Will the real Long Bailey please stand up.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Starmer? Just can’t see it. Not sure he’s the right choice. You need someone trusted by left capable of leading deep reform and able to connect with lost working voters.
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    edited December 2019
    It has to be someone who's going to continue the strategy of booting out anyone who isn't in the death cult, meanwhile waiting for the tories to mess up so much that venezuela seems like the better option.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Will the real Long Bailey please stand up.

    I can see we're goin' to have a problem here.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Will the real Long Bailey please stand up.

    I can see we're goin' to have a problem here.
    The real Boris is yet to stand up , it’s done him no harm.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    Any of them would be an improvement from Corbyn but I can’t imagine RLB appealing to Conservative voters
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jonathan said:

    Starmer? Just can’t see it. Not sure he’s the right choice. You need someone trusted by left capable of leading deep reform and able to connect with lost working voters.

    "You need someone trusted by left"

    You could've just stopped there. Long-Bailey is a shoo-in, unless somebody more Left-wing than her sneaks onto the ballot in which case they'll win instead.
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    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Why on Earth are people rating Starmer? He was the one who created the ridiculous impossible six tests and then was the architect of the nonsensical "negotiate a deal we won't support" position. He is directly responsible for the collapse of the North. It is only because he is a white middle class man that people pretend he is competent.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    Gabs3 said:

    Why on Earth are people rating Starmer? He was the one who created the ridiculous impossible six tests and then was the architect of the nonsensical "negotiate a deal we won't support" position. He is directly responsible for the collapse of the North. It is only because he is a white middle class man that people pretend he is competent.

    Didn't he also reject his own proposals when the government presented them to him?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    HaroldO said:

    kle4 said:

    HaroldO said:

    kle4 said:

    HaroldO said:

    Cinema advice; 1917 and Jojo rabbit are both out next month. See them both, even if they are Oscar fodder.

    1917 looked very dull, but it was filmed not 20 miles away from me so I should go see it. JoJo Rabbit looked pretty good.
    I like the look of it, it looks bare bones in terms of action and is shot to look like one long take which I think could work given the context. I am also a Sam Mendes fan.

    If you are interested in odd films there is a German war film I keep meaning the watch called The Captain, might be hard to find but it looks nuts. I have the DVD and shall be watching over Xmas.
    The one long take thing is probably why the trailer looks comparitively dull, but as you say given the gimmick it could work well as a result. I'll give it a chance. I have to do something to balance out seeing Star Wars 3 or 4 times (assuming it is any good)
    I have low hopes for Star Wars, just feels like more harking back. But I shall see it, family tradition going back to the original trilogy re-releases back in the 90's.
    Definitely a worry. It's one reason I think The Last Jedi was much better than Force Awakens as it did less of that *ducks*
    Gabs3 said:

    Why on Earth are people rating Starmer? He was the one who created the ridiculous impossible six tests and then was the architect of the nonsensical "negotiate a deal we won't support" position. He is directly responsible for the collapse of the North. It is only because he is a white middle class man that people pretend he is competent.

    He successfully manuevered the party including Corbyn to as Remain adjacent a position as he could, while looking credible. However, he may now take the blame for it not working, even if he will say it is Corbyn's fault for not going Remain enough.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,038
    RobD said:

    You could say Rebecca Long-Bailey's odds have got... longer. :)




    Thanks, I'll be here all day.

    It's only a matter of time until she bails out...

    I see Lamb has a new job. Top psyche Trust in the country. A good appointment.

    https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/1206989489081638912?s=19
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,400
    chloe said:

    Any of them would be an improvement from Corbyn but I can’t imagine RLB appealing to Conservative voters

    She is of the same mind as Corbyn and is his favoured heir AFAIK. Therefore absolutely unacceptable./...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Will the real Long Bailey please stand up.

    I can see we're goin' to have a problem here.
    The real Boris is yet to stand up , it’s done him no harm.
    But he’s not Slim... shady I could concede
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    You could say Rebecca Long-Bailey's odds have got... longer. :)




    Thanks, I'll be here all day.

    It's only a matter of time until she bails out...

    I see Lamb has a new job. Top psyche Trust in the country. A good appointment.

    https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/1206989489081638912?s=19
    Bravo! I doff my hat to you, sir.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited December 2019
    Jezza's mates are up to no good....

    Turkey is allowing senior Hamas operatives to plot attacks against Israel from Istanbul, The Telegraph can disclose, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays host to the terrorist group’s leaders.

    Transcripts of Israeli police interrogations with suspects show that senior Hamas operatives are using Turkey’s largest city to direct operations in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank, including an assassination attempt earlier this year on the mayor of Jerusalem.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/17/hamas-plots-attacks-israel-turkey-erdogan-turns-blind-eye/
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,951
    FPT (I usually spot there's a new thread when I am the only one posting on the old one!)

    Cookie said:

    Should the UK be raising rather than lowering the voting age?
    By James Tilley
    Professor of politics at Oxford University

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46737013

    An excerpt:



    "Only 29% of 16 to 19-year-olds are working full-time now," says Lucinda Platt, a professor of social policy at the London School of Economics. "That contrasts with the late 1960s when you would expect around four-fifths of that age group to be in work."

    Clearly, it is unreasonable to say that because someone is not working they should not have the vote. But the average age at which we assume adult responsibilities is presumably part of the story when we set the voting age. In fact, it might even go further than that.

    Prof Abigail Baird, a psychologist and neuroscientist at Vassar College in New York, argues that important experiences, like starting work, are a crucial part of adolescent brain development.

    "In early adulthood our brain is poised to learn how to make decisions and poised to learn how to be an adult," she says.

    "But since what's expected of adults in different cultures varies so much, we need the experience of that culture to tell us what we need to do."

    As MRI brain scanning is a relatively recent technology it is difficult to be sure, but it seems very likely that if important experiences come later in life then so does brain development:

    "Forced to speculate, I would say an 18-year-old brain 50 years ago probably looked more like a 23-year-old brain does now," Prof Baird says. "Most 25 or 26-year-olds would be identical, but I think the way in which you get there is different now."

    I've recently read a book about human bahaviour. I think it was called 'Behave'. In any case, I seem to remember the human brain doesn't fully become adult in its decision-making until the mid-20s. Hence risk-taking and novelty-seeking continues into the 20s.
    Yes, well-known effect in e.g. criminology - teens and early 20s are a much more dangerous time in terms of getting into offending, plenty seem to "calm down" in late 20s/30s as their brain matures.
    Fair point - but what about the effect at the other end?

    It has amazed me how, as they progressed through their 70s and into their 80s many of my parent's generation become much more timid, less confident and more risk averse. Relatives who used to ooze confidence now ask me for my advice on the simplest of matters.

    Maybe all have an equal right to vote - both those whose brains are still developing as well as those whose brains are slowly shrinking and dying?
  • Options
    Newsnight going full on IT'S WAR on the Labour Party. Hoping for some bitter anecdotes.
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    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1206853645209415681

    This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.
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    Newsnight going full on IT'S WAR on the Labour Party. Hoping for some bitter anecdotes.

    And Falconer delivers within minutes. Volcanic anger.
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    Bloody hell. This is brutal.
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    Corbyn defenders were: Claudia Webbe, Lloyd Russell-Moyle

    Says it all.
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    Oh great. Nick Watt reminds me that Claudia Webb now has a seat.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Just been catching up on YouGov's latest favourability ratings - Corbyn completely in the basement, though poor Jo Swinson gets a terrible kicking as well - but also this stood out:

    Nicola Sturgeon - net favourability...
    With 2017 Con voters: -77
    With 2016 Leave voters: -70

    Leaving aside the question of whether or not Johnson's intransigence over Indyref2 can survive another Nat or Nat/Green majority at Holyrood come 2021, one gathers the impression that his new voter coalition will not exactly be distraught at his refusal to play ball with the First Minister.

    Whether this also indicates that the Tory base is truly committed to the Union, or if it's more the case that they don't care and are simply disinclined to listen to Scottish special pleading, who can say? More research required.
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    Corbyn defenders were: Claudia Webbe, Lloyd Russell-Moyle

    Says it all.

    Williamson is no longer available.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    edited December 2019
    Is there any explanation for Rebecca Large-Baileys’ drift?
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1206853645209415681

    This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.

    Perhaps. I'd quite like to see vote mapped against wealth rather than class (as an imperfect proxy for income).
    And I'm not sure that the 2019 election was a fair reflection of the cultutal split in Britain. Corbyn's Labour and Swinson's LDs are both rather fringe examples, culturally.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271

    Newsnight going full on IT'S WAR on the Labour Party. Hoping for some bitter anecdotes.

    And Falconer delivers within minutes. Volcanic anger.

    Charlie Falconer is FURIOUS #ResignationWatch

    😃
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    Claudia Webbe is related to Simon Webbe, singer in popular band Blue. Blue sang for the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest, as did Malena Ernman. Malena Ernman is the mother of Greta Thunberg.

    I'M JUST SAYING.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,038

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1206853645209415681

    This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.

    It is a good book, but does need updating. Kansas managed quite a financial crisis the last few years:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2017/06/07/the-great-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-crashes-and-burns/
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    FPT
    Chris said:


    Momentum's sole offering is called 'Socialist Worker', it is a nonsensical comic and they sell it on street corners.

    You think Momentum publishes "Socialist Worker"? Wow.
    "Are you lot the Judean Peoples' Front?"

    Fuck off! Judean Peoples' Front! We're the Peoples' Front of Judea. Judean Peoples Front! Wankers!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQsbgoJU_Vk
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    FPT (I usually spot there's a new thread when I am the only one posting on the old one!)

    Cookie said:


    I've recently read a book about human bahaviour. I think it was called 'Behave'. In any case, I seem to remember the human brain doesn't fully become adult in its decision-making until the mid-20s. Hence risk-taking and novelty-seeking continues into the 20s.

    Yes, well-known effect in e.g. criminology - teens and early 20s are a much more dangerous time in terms of getting into offending, plenty seem to "calm down" in late 20s/30s as their brain matures.
    Fair point - but what about the effect at the other end?

    It has amazed me how, as they progressed through their 70s and into their 80s many of my parent's generation become much more timid, less confident and more risk averse. Relatives who used to ooze confidence now ask me for my advice on the simplest of matters.

    Maybe all have an equal right to vote - both those whose brains are still developing as well as those whose brains are slowly shrinking and dying?
    http://news.mit.edu/2015/brain-peaks-at-different-ages-0306

    Yes also an interesting counterpoint to the lower voting age arguments. Different cognitive abilities peak/decline at different times...


    The researchers gathered data from nearly 50,000 subjects and found a very clear picture showing that each cognitive skill they were testing peaked at a different age. For example, raw speed in processing information appears to peak around age 18 or 19, then immediately starts to decline. Meanwhile, short-term memory continues to improve until around age 25, when it levels off and then begins to drop around age 35.

    For the ability to evaluate other people’s emotional states, the peak occurred much later, in the 40s or 50s.

    ...

    The researchers also included a vocabulary test, which serves as a measure of what is known as crystallized intelligence — the accumulation of facts and knowledge. These results confirmed that crystallized intelligence peaks later in life, as previously believed, but the researchers also found something unexpected: While data from the Weschler IQ tests suggested that vocabulary peaks in the late 40s, the new data showed a later peak, in the late 60s or early 70s.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,951
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1206853645209415681

    This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.

    It is a good book, but does need updating. Kansas managed quite a financial crisis the last few years:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2017/06/07/the-great-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-crashes-and-burns/
    But, but... what about the sacred Laffer Curve??
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    Nandy doing well.
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    Bloody hell. This is brutal.


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    Is there any explanation for Rebecca Large-Baileys’ drift?

    Starmer?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    edited December 2019

    Nandy doing well.

    Good, she's the best option in my opinion. I might even join the party in order to vote for her, if that's still allowed. We need a decent opposition.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1206853645209415681

    This is Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" book mapped onto the UK. Cultural issues over economics.

    As a son of 2 working class folk that makes me incredibly proud. Boris needs to follow up on this with investment and infastructure. In my eyes the Conservatives should always offer more to the aspirational working classes and those who have worked a lifetime to protect their assets. It’s now time for him to walk the walk and convince the folk in Bassetlaw, Barrow, Sedgefield, Dudley and Wrexham that they did the right thing.
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    Nandy - "seriously considering" running.

    This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.

    We are back to Corbyn being poison.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,951

    FPT (I usually spot there's a new thread when I am the only one posting on the old one!)

    Cookie said:


    I've recently read a book about human bahaviour. I think it was called 'Behave'. In any case, I seem to remember the human brain doesn't fully become adult in its decision-making until the mid-20s. Hence risk-taking and novelty-seeking continues into the 20s.

    Yes, well-known effect in e.g. criminology - teens and early 20s are a much more dangerous time in terms of getting into offending, plenty seem to "calm down" in late 20s/30s as their brain matures.
    Fair point - but what about the effect at the other end?

    It has amazed me how, as they progressed through their 70s and into their 80s many of my parent's generation become much more timid, less confident and more risk averse. Relatives who used to ooze confidence now ask me for my advice on the simplest of matters.

    Maybe all have an equal right to vote - both those whose brains are still developing as well as those whose brains are slowly shrinking and dying?
    http://news.mit.edu/2015/brain-peaks-at-different-ages-0306

    Yes also an interesting counterpoint to the lower voting age arguments. Different cognitive abilities peak/decline at different times...


    The researchers gathered data from nearly 50,000 subjects and found a very clear picture showing that each cognitive skill they were testing peaked at a different age. For example, raw speed in processing information appears to peak around age 18 or 19, then immediately starts to decline. Meanwhile, short-term memory continues to improve until around age 25, when it levels off and then begins to drop around age 35.

    For the ability to evaluate other people’s emotional states, the peak occurred much later, in the 40s or 50s.

    ...

    The researchers also included a vocabulary test, which serves as a measure of what is known as crystallized intelligence — the accumulation of facts and knowledge. These results confirmed that crystallized intelligence peaks later in life, as previously believed, but the researchers also found something unexpected: While data from the Weschler IQ tests suggested that vocabulary peaks in the late 40s, the new data showed a later peak, in the late 60s or early 70s.
    The point about the peak ability to evaluate other people’s emotional states occurring in the 40s and 50s is an interesting one to me.

    I think I may be a late developer but yes I can see I have improved on that front enormously since I was a callow 20-something. Sadly, at that age I never realised how poor my EQ levels were.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Starmer is not left wing. He isn’t the next Tony Blair. And he isn’t female.

    And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.

    Surely still a lay.
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    Has Newsnight hit the sort of Malcolm Tucker vs Steve Fleming rutting?
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    Pretty good outing for Nandy. Could be an interesting race after all.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541
    Gabs3 said:

    Why on Earth are people rating Starmer? He was the one who created the ridiculous impossible six tests and then was the architect of the nonsensical "negotiate a deal we won't support" position. He is directly responsible for the collapse of the North. It is only because he is a white middle class man that people pretend he is competent.

    Did you see his train-wreck interview with Piers Morgan?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052

    Pretty good outing for Nandy. Could be an interesting race after all.

    Nandy was superb tonight

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited December 2019

    Pretty good outing for Nandy. Could be an interesting race after all.

    I have seen / heard her interviewed 3 times since the election and come across well each time. Non of this the Illuminati made us lose crap, much more it was Corbyn, but there is a longer standing issue of neglect of the North for 40+ years.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Claudia Webbe is related to Simon Webbe, singer in popular band Blue. Blue sang for the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest, as did Malena Ernman. Malena Ernman is the mother of Greta Thunberg.

    I'M JUST SAYING.

    Greta Thunberg's mum was in Blue?
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    Andy_JS said:

    Nandy doing well.

    Good, she's the best option in my opinion. I might even join the party in order to vote for her, if that's still allowed. We need a decent opposition.
    If Yvette is not running, then I think you are right.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271

    Nandy - "seriously considering" running.

    This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.

    We are back to Corbyn being poison.

    How would you know that? Did you canvas with her in Wigan?
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    Claudia Webbe is related to Simon Webbe, singer in popular band Blue. Blue sang for the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest, as did Malena Ernman. Malena Ernman is the mother of Greta Thunberg.

    I'M JUST SAYING.

    Greta Thunberg's mum was in Blue?
    LOLLLLL
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited December 2019
    A man surging in to favourite as next lab leader... Well it is Labour, so makes sense on past performance...
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    Nandy seems so sensible after the last few years of sodding Corbyn.
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    Nandy - "seriously considering" running.

    This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.

    We are back to Corbyn being poison.

    How would you know that? Did you canvas with her in Wigan?
    I wasn't being clear - these were her words (loosely paraphrased)
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    Nandy would be my choice, although I didn’t see her on the telly tonight. She is often on Peston and is generally a cool customer on the TV.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Pretty good outing for Nandy. Could be an interesting race after all.

    I said I would never vote Labour. In the right circumstances I could vote Nandy. She gets it. Call me cynical but that’s probably why she won’t win.
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    Corbyn defenders were: Claudia Webbe, Lloyd Russell-Moyle

    Says it all.

    Webbe was policy director to and member of Red Ken's election campaign team...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Nandy seems so sensible after the last few years of sodding Corbyn.

    She will still get an absolute tonking from The Telegraph and Mail if it were ever to come to pass.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    Is there any explanation for Rebecca Large-Baileys’ drift?

    That sounds distinctly sexist.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    Just noticed an uptick in Trump's approval rating.

    Likely / registered voters:

    Approve: 44.5%
    Disapprove: 51.7%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
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    IanB2 said:

    Starmer is not left wing. He isn’t the next Tony Blair. And he isn’t female.

    And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.

    Surely still a lay.

    Correct but is there actually anyone betting starmer or is the bookies manipulating the betting odds?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.
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    Brom said:

    Pretty good outing for Nandy. Could be an interesting race after all.

    I said I would never vote Labour. In the right circumstances I could vote Nandy. She gets it. Call me cynical but that’s probably why she won’t win.
    Impressive. Even at the end, when Emily tried to trap her into agreeing with a Tory.
  • Options
    Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the election campaign was the complete lack of focus on the two biggest long term threats to the UK:

    - Terrible productivity growth since the recession
    - Abysmal balance of payments figures

    Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.
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    Nandy seems so sensible after the last few years of sodding Corbyn.

    She will still get an absolute tonking from The Telegraph and Mail if it were ever to come to pass.
    Everyone will. It is down to who has given them most ammunition. Corbyn was the worst possible choice in this regard.

    I doubt Nandy has been hanging out with the Brighton Bomber.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271

    Nandy - "seriously considering" running.

    This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.

    We are back to Corbyn being poison.

    How would you know that? Did you canvas with her in Wigan?
    I wasn't being clear - these were her words (loosely paraphrased)
    Oh I see, get you now.

    Thanks for clarification.
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    IanB2 said:

    Starmer is not left wing. He isn’t the next Tony Blair. And he isn’t female.

    And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.

    Surely still a lay.

    Correct but is there actually anyone betting starmer or is the bookies manipulating the betting odds?
    On BetFair?
  • Options

    Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the election campaign was the complete lack of focus on the two biggest long term threats to the UK:

    - Terrible productivity growth since the recession
    - Abysmal balance of payments figures

    Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.

    Bigger than those...rise of China and rise of ML / AI....lots of middle class jobs are going to be going the way of metal bashing.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271
    IanB2 said:

    Is there any explanation for Rebecca Large-Baileys’ drift?

    That sounds distinctly sexist.
    ? Why?
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    edited December 2019

    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    If she had been, they might have placed better in Dusseldorf in 2011, and not made a total horlicks of the Jury Final.

    #stillbitter
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    Was she Cameroon Green Blue?
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    Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the election campaign was the complete lack of focus on the two biggest long term threats to the UK:

    - Terrible productivity growth since the recession
    - Abysmal balance of payments figures

    Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.

    Important point. The bigger point is that modern GE campaigns are utterly vacuous. Film of the main man meeting people at a farmers market etc. No daily press conference.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the election campaign was the complete lack of focus on the two biggest long term threats to the UK:

    - Terrible productivity growth since the recession
    - Abysmal balance of payments figures

    Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.

    Those were the key indicators fifty years ago.

    I can never see the balance of payments figures ever improving now that we don't really make anything, unless Boris can sell his Singapore onThames idea. If he can't we will continue to sell imported fast-food burgers to each other until we can no longer aford to buy them.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,271

    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    Was she Cameroon Green Blue?
    David Cameron was in Green Day? Didn’t know that either.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    IanB2 said:

    Starmer is not left wing. He isn’t the next Tony Blair. And he isn’t female.

    And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.

    Surely still a lay.

    Don't most Labour members live in London now?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Nandy seems so sensible after the last few years of sodding Corbyn.

    She will still get an absolute tonking from The Telegraph and Mail if it were ever to come to pass.
    Everyone will. It is down to who has given them most ammunition. Corbyn was the worst possible choice in this regard.

    I doubt Nandy has been hanging out with the Brighton Bomber.
    But she has been hanging around with someone who did. Guilty as charged M'Lud!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    Was she Cameroon Green Blue?
    David Cameron was in Green Day? Didn’t know that either.
    Boulevard of Broken Dreams? Wasn't that enough of a clue?
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    Newsnight have gone to the Far North, and are playing Prefab Sprout over an aerial shot of the Angel of The North.

    This is what the people want.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    IanB2 said:

    Is there any explanation for Rebecca Large-Baileys’ drift?

    That sounds distinctly sexist.
    ? Why?
    No idea. It just does.
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    Starmer is probably the wise choice. In five year's time the country will be sick and bloated on the Boris cream sponge and will long from some wheat crackers.
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited December 2019

    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    Was she Cameroon Green Blue?
    David Cameron was in Green Day? Didn’t know that either.
    Did you never listen to “Boulevard of Broken Dreams”?

    Edit: too late!
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    I wasn’t aware until this evening that Greta Thurnberg was the lead vocalist in Blue.

    Was she Cameroon Green Blue?
    David Cameron was in Green Day? Didn’t know that either.
    "Etonian Idiot" was a brilliant song :lol:
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    Interesting what Nandy said about building a "bridge" (as opposed to rebuilding the Red Wall) between the "Lewisham" and the "Leigh" parts of their coalition.

    I wonder if in a way this kind of thinking is backwards and fighting the last war. With voting affiliation increasingly independent of social class and with Brexit out of the way, and if you had a good 4-5 years to reshape the direction of the Labour party however you wanted (whether the party membership / MPs would let you is a big "if" of course...) could you build a completely new coalition?

    One thing in Labour's favour is they have lower brand-toxicity than the Tories - so there are more people out there who don't vote Labour who might be willing to switch for the right cause. And Labour did very well in some nationwide segments, e.g. parents, which reminded me of how Tony Blair managed to normalise Labour-voting among Middle England.

    I'm not the kind of political genius to be able to put the jigsaw together. But I don't think one can rule out the possibility of there being some different angle of attack for Labour than just trying to cobble their old voter coalition together. Whether they can take it or not is another issue.
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    Can someone explain why Starmer will struggle to get on the ballot?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've gone back in, this may be a mistake.


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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    edited December 2019

    Can someone explain why Starmer will struggle to get on the ballot?

    I don't think he will - he needs 10% of the PLP (21) plus 5% of the CLPs or the support of a major union. I would think he certainly has 5% of the CLPs on board.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Claudia Webbe is related to Simon Webbe, singer in popular band Blue. Blue sang for the UK in the Eurovision Song Contest, as did Malena Ernman. Malena Ernman is the mother of Greta Thunberg.

    I'M JUST SAYING.

    [strokes beard]
    [sotto voce] "all the pieces fit"
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Can someone explain why Starmer will struggle to get on the ballot?

    That isn't the problem, but he won't win. I might like him, but the people of Bolsover won't.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    I thought Nandy was excellent on Newsnight tonight.

    She came over as measured, reflective, assured, sincere and well informed. She fielded questions adeptly, avoided the invitation to traduce colleagues and managed to communicate as a normal human being.

    5/1 is available with Ladbrokes for next Labour party leader - 11/2 boosted price.

    I’m on!
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    Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the election campaign was the complete lack of focus on the two biggest long term threats to the UK:

    - Terrible productivity growth since the recession
    - Abysmal balance of payments figures

    Until both of those quandaries are tackled, the idea that the conservatives or labour can bring any form of sustained prosperity to the Midlands & North are pie in the sky.

    Important point. The bigger point is that modern GE campaigns are utterly vacuous. Film of the main man meeting people at a farmers market etc. No daily press conference.
    This is a reasonable point, but I have come to the conclusion the main way that our electoral system works in terms of providing democratic feedback is that it keeps parties in order between elections in terms of how far they can deviate from the what the electorate finds "mainstream"/"acceptable" (Labour have been held to account for this in 2019) and that governments know they will be kicked out if they cock up too much. I think it's been a long time since election campaigns - and importantly, voter responses to them - were driven by detailed policy discussions.

    Having said that, this election was affected by a major and divisive policy issue in Brexit, but we all knew where the parties stood (or were struggling to figure out where they stood themselves!) well in advance, so we didn't need daily conferences to update us, and most of us had entrenched ourselves on our own sides on that policy split by then, so not a lot of persuasion was likely to happen during the campaign - the best the parties could do is persuade us "even if you don't like our Brexit policy, vote for us for this other reason". Which incidentally the Tories were more successful with, partly because Labour's domestic policy offering was offputting to many Tory remainers.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    dodrade said:

    IanB2 said:

    Starmer is not left wing. He isn’t the next Tony Blair. And he isn’t female.

    And he’s from London when Labour’s problem is up north.

    Surely still a lay.

    Don't most Labour members live in London now?
    No.
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    Sky newspaper reviewers are Tom Harwood and Ash Sarkar. Is everyone else on holiday, and unavailable?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541
    edited December 2019

    Interesting what Nandy said about building a "bridge" (as opposed to rebuilding the Red Wall) between the "Lewisham" and the "Leigh" parts of their coalition.

    I wonder if in a way this kind of thinking is backwards and fighting the last war. With voting affiliation increasingly independent of social class and with Brexit out of the way, and if you had a good 4-5 years to reshape the direction of the Labour party however you wanted (whether the party membership / MPs would let you is a big "if" of course...) could you build a completely new coalition?

    One thing in Labour's favour is they have lower brand-toxicity than the Tories - so there are more people out there who don't vote Labour who might be willing to switch for the right cause. And Labour did very well in some nationwide segments, e.g. parents, which reminded me of how Tony Blair managed to normalise Labour-voting among Middle England.

    I'm not the kind of political genius to be able to put the jigsaw together. But I don't think one can rule out the possibility of there being some different angle of attack for Labour than just trying to cobble their old voter coalition together. Whether they can take it or not is another issue.

    I am not so sure. If last week told us anything it is that Labour have a bigger toxicity issue than the Tories. Racism being a big one.

    But the Tories are also racists will be the retort. The Tories brand of racism is one that touches a nerve in Rochdale and Rotherham. I may be outraged at 'letter boxes', and 'bank robbers' but there are people out there thinking 'letter boxes and bank robbers? Boris is on our page'!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    stjohn said:

    I thought Nandy was excellent on Newsnight tonight.

    She came over as measured, reflective, assured, sincere and well informed. She fielded questions adeptly, avoided the invitation to traduce colleagues and managed to communicate as a normal human being.

    5/1 is available with Ladbrokes for next Labour party leader - 11/2 boosted price.

    I’m on!

    In responding to the question the other day "Who would the Tories fear?" I said Nandy.

    I stand by that.

    I wonder if the scale of the defeat is starting to make even Corbynistas have doubt about waving goodbye to power for purity of thought?
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    It strikes me that we collectively know less than is ideal about the electorate who has to make this unenviable choice. Presumably 60% of them are still barking mad Momentum types who take orders direct from Jon Lansman? Or did the rift that opened up over Pete Willsman/Chris Williamson develop into a full scale split?

    In which case, who do the splitters now take orders from? Is it possible that two left wingers on the ballot ends up with them letting Phillips/Nandy through the middle, even under AV?

    Note that I am explicitly ignoring the possibility that they will be making their own minds up. In addition, I feel there's likely to be an as-yet-undeclared runner in this race. There's a tiny outside chance that it might be Claudia Webbe.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Nandy - "seriously considering" running.

    This election was the worst she has been though. Door step reaction utterly dire.

    We are back to Corbyn being poison.

    I think Nandy might be the best shout for a Kinnock-vs-Militant style clear out that gives Labour a shot not at 2024, but at 2029. Rayner not trusted by the left, RLB and Burgon too lefty and bovine, Starmer too metropolitan and won't carry the membership. But I don't think Labour will go for that.

    The Con voter in me says to want an unelectable Corbynista like Burgon, but I just can't put the Jewish people I know through another election like that.
This discussion has been closed.