politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first results sees the red wall penetrated
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Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.FrancisUrquhart said:
Clearly all those massive queues were there to vote for Boris....speedy2 said:The end result could be:
CON 46%
LAB 28%
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!0 -
Belfast South Update : Claire Hanna Majority Predicted To Be In The Region Of 3000-4000.0
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Somebody get Peston some new batteries - the current ones are about to run out.0
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My timeline is just a series of 'huge, if true' tweets, the like of which I saw during the SNP landslide in 2015.
The exit poll might have overestimated Labour if this continues.0 -
Newcastle North:
Lab 21,354
Con 15,589
LD 4,357
BRX 4,331
Grn 1,3680 -
Yes, that was me. Implementing my vote in 2016 was the one and only issue.Pulpstar said:Boris has tapped the referendum voters
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Can’t be good for Swinson.Theuniondivvie said:Wow, motivated electorate.
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1205282985953710086?s=201 -
Since we're touching on counterfactuals: what if Tom Watson hadn't moved so decisively and effectively to head off the stream of defections which Chuka and the other TIGgers thought was going to happen after they went over the top into No Man's Land?2
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Oh this could be delicious.Theuniondivvie said:Wow, motivated electorate.
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1205282985953710086?s=200 -
Exit poll gives CON 66% chance of gaining High Peak. +14% LAB swing in 2017.
See ya you fucking wingnut:
https://order-order.com/2019/02/19/labour-mp-suggests-labour-split-group-is-funded-by-israel/0 -
What happened? I was thinking MacNeil might possibly lose his 1000 majority what with the internet campaign against him this time.StuartDickson said:Stornoway count: SNP looking comfortable, but the big story is that the Tories might pip Labour for second place!!!! Crikey!
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Classic case of virtue signalling, and now its bit themMarqueeMark said:Well, it required the long game but it looks like the Tory three-quidders royally fucked Labour....
Take a bow, Ed Miliband.0 -
To be fair turnout there was 78.1% in 2017KentRising said:
Oh this could be delicious.Theuniondivvie said:Wow, motivated electorate.
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1205282985953710086?s=200 -
Swing 12% Sunderland W!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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Chap on BBC saying that he thinks Johnson is going to mimic Spain: come down on the Scots like a ton of bricks. “He hasn’t got anything to lose.”0
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I assume we haven't had a result from Reading East, it's just a projection...Philip_Thompson said:0 -
Northern Ireland Update : Alliance will get a lot of second places, polling extremely well.0
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Oh sorry lol. What is the 2nd Con seat? BBC total says Con 2 but I've only seen Blyth Valley.Andy_JS said:
I assume we haven't had a result from Reading East, it's just a projection...Philip_Thompson said:0 -
So many people including Peston claiming Tories would win Sunderland seats without BXP. Clearly they are taking way more votes off Lab than Con and I think on balance Farage and Cummings got the strategy bang on0
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'Only' a 5% swing in Halton
Maybe not so good for CON in NW (as per usual!)0 -
Looks like the Labour vote has collapsed and gone to both the SNP and the Tories.Henrietta said:
What happened? I was thinking MacNeil might possibly lose his 1000 majority what with the internet campaign against him this time.StuartDickson said:Stornoway count: SNP looking comfortable, but the big story is that the Tories might pip Labour for second place!!!! Crikey!
(Na h-Eileanan an Iar was a Labour seat for years.)0 -
I didn't realise how scared I was of Corbyn until today. Immense relief.Floater said:
I'm floating on air - the relief is palpableBluestBlue said:This is such a strange feeling. 2015 was the pure joy of surprise to me. 2017 was the gut punch of physical grief.
This time I barely feel anything other than stunned relief and disbelief...1 -
One of the Swindons. Massive 16,000 majority.Philip_Thompson said:
Oh sorry lol. What is the 2nd Con seat? BBC total says Con 2 but I've only seen Blyth Valley.Andy_JS said:
I assume we haven't had a result from Reading East, it's just a projection...Philip_Thompson said:0 -
The Brexit Party gain is almost the Labour loss in all these NE seats0
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Northern Ireland Update.
BREAKING NEWS!
Stephen Farry (Alliance Party) is on for a 1000+ Majority in North Down.1 -
Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, blaming SCon losses on wrong distribution of votes. They have been putting on votes in the Central Belt where they are largely useless.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.0 -
So of course Corbyn has to go.
But there are many more problems.
Losing votes in the Remainy seats but also losing votes in the Leave seats. Wipeout in Scotland. Destruction in Wales.
People said in 2015, Labour was finished - but I legitimately think Labour faces an existential crisis here.
But I will say this, I think the next Labour leader whoever it is, really must not tack onto "rejoin". The Brexit issue is utterly toxic.0 -
Stirling Tories carefully avoided mentioning either Brexit or Johnson. Might regret that strategy later tonight!
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The Fink killing it right now.0
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John Rentoul nails it:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/12052752738952642580 -
I can imagine Corbyn's past record on Ireland making him unpopular on Lewis, although I would have thought MacNeil's record with teenage women and his expenses claims (not to mention the other stuff that has been spread about) would make him unpopular there too, but it doesn't sound as though it has. My brother tells me the Labour candidate is one of the most irritating people he knows - she started doing a politician shtick with him ("I passionately believe", etc.) in one-on-one conversation even though they've known each other 10 years. (He voted for her, though.)StuartDickson said:
Looks like the Labour vote has collapsed and gone to both the SNP and the Tories.Henrietta said:
What happened? I was thinking MacNeil might possibly lose his 1000 majority what with the internet campaign against him this time.StuartDickson said:Stornoway count: SNP looking comfortable, but the big story is that the Tories might pip Labour for second place!!!! Crikey!
(Na h-Eileanan an Iar was a Labour seat for years.)
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Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?0 -
Brexit should not be a problem for either Labour or the LibDems now. Of course it is a huge problem for Boris - who has to deliver the impossible to a ludicrously short self-imposed deadline - but the opposition parties can very simply move to a position where they accept that Brexit has formally happened (which it will have done by Jan 31st), and argue for as close a relationship with the EU as we can get. They can talk about an aspiration to rejoin some time in the future, but that's not going to be a practical policy for years if not decades.CorrectHorseBattery said:So of course Corbyn has to go.
But there are many more problems.
Losing votes in the Remainy seats but also losing votes in the Leave seats. Wipeout in Scotland. Destruction in Wales.
People said in 2015, Labour was finished - but I legitimately think Labour faces an existential crisis here.
But I will say this, I think the next Labour leader whoever it is, really must not tack onto "rejoin". The Brexit issue is utterly toxic.0 -
T
The membership and party bodies are overwhelmingly left wing/Corbynist/Momentum. They aren’t ceding control just because the MPs ain’t happy.CorrectHorseBattery said:Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
Corbyn and McDonnell have worked hard to ensure the Left are ascendant.
The party may need to split.
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Labour CLINGING to life in Stockton North0
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Didn't this used to be a 'bellweather' seat?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205293229618483201?s=200 -
So, if you end up with the result you 'expected' last time, does this mean that 2024 will be a smallish Conservative majority (about 330-340 seats)? Seems likely.
Labour are so far from power if the Exit poll is right (130 seats short) that they are looking at at least the next (And possibly the one after that) before they could hope to regain a majority government.
And if they are WORSE than 191 seats, it could be the end of the 2030s before they're back!0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
Needs to be female, numerate & a good media performer...Diane Abbott?1 -
Tracy Brabin?funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:Agree with the ex Labour lady.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
Needs to be female, numerate & a good media performer...Diane Abbott?0
