politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first results sees the red wall penetrated

System · December 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first results sees the red wall penetrated

Newcastle upon Tyne Central: Lab HOLD

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numbertwelve · December 2019

I never thought I would see the day that Blyth Valley voted for a Tory

Big_G_NorthWales · December 2019

First like Boris - I thought I was. Well done numbertwelve

rcs1000 · December 2019

LDs will be super excited to have retained their deposits.

houndtang · December 2019

turns out calling people racists and fools for three and half years isn't a vote winner.

Floater · December 2019

numbertwelve said:
I never thought I would see the day that Blyth Valley voted for a Tory

First time ever

KentRising · December 2019

Massive.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

Can someone check on Owen Jones?

WhisperingOracle · December 2019

As mentioned, the collected results so far look strong, but not like an 80 majority. There could be huge regional swings and variations, though.

Casino_Royale · December 2019

Congrats to Robert Smithson.

Fantastic prediction.

RobinWiggs · December 2019

Blyth Valley is seismic.

This is going o be a bloodbath. Could it be a 100+ majority?

Philip_Thompson · December 2019

How did Sky miss Blyth Valley being declared?

Carolus_Rex · December 2019

Hail to thee, Blyth Valley!

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205269917085454336?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205269431385034753?s=20

KentRising · December 2019

Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

Pulpstar · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blythe?

Help

JBriskinindyref2 · December 2019

Tory/Brexit party alliance causing havoc for remoaners - shame I can t enjoy yet cuz of snp exit poll number

speedy2 · December 2019

Average swing after 3 results, 7%.
Majority of 104 with UNS.

ydoethur · December 2019

This is extraordinary. Surely Hemsworth is in trouble too?

Floater · December 2019

John Bercow describes early results as "catastrophic for Labour"

Morris_Dancer · December 2019

Any more seats expected shortly?

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

Casino_Royale said:
Congrats to Robert Smithson.

Fantastic prediction.

My prediction wasn't far off.

RobD · December 2019

Marr saying Lords may sit between Xmas and New Years!

MyBurningEars · December 2019

"Just look at the remain parties votes combined" followed by "give away a former heartland seat" - wondered if this meant PC + LD + Green for a minute. But then realised "remain parties" supposedly included Labour. And this was Labour heartland, not "Remainia" heartland. Perhaps a clue in there somewhere.

tlg86 · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

Remember how the "reverse-Farrage" would be more beneficial to the Tories...

KentRising · December 2019

ydoethur said:
This is extraordinary. Surely Hemsworth is in trouble too?

Let us reiterate: Labour since 1910.

rottenborough · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Can someone check on Owen Jones?

Not sounding too good.

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840

Nobidexx · December 2019

RobinWiggs said:
Blyth Valley is seismic.

This is going o be a bloodbath. Could it be a 100+ majority?

It could, they've got a lot of seats very close. I suppose it could be a bit below the projection, but probably not below a 60-70 majority in any case. The results we've had so far are very close to what the exit poll was showing.

ydoethur · December 2019

Floater said:
John Bercow describes early results as "catastrophic for Labour"

Understatement of the 21st century.

Jason · December 2019

Labour's vote share catastrophic. A fearful and bloody slaughter on the cards.

YBarddCwsc · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

They helped, of course.

Pulpstar · December 2019

If Lord Pannick can talk for 5 years the Tories will hold all these seats

RobinWiggs · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

Probably helped reduce the Labour vote that wouldn’t transfer to Con.

Floater · December 2019

Nothing to suggest exit poll wrong - say Sky news

Deep, deep joy

Sunil_Prasannan · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

I would proffer that they helped.

Ave_it · December 2019

It can't be over emphasised how BAD the Blyth Valley and Houghton results are for LAB. They are brain meltingly bad!!!

Still uncertainty in London might be bad, Wales could be good, Scotland * knows

MAJ unlikely to be below 40 could be 100

Philip_Thompson · December 2019

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?

Help, massively. This is what I said about them standing in red seats - the Leavers who could stomach voting for the Tories did so. Those who could never vote Tory under any circumstances went BXP instead of Labour.

Had BXP stood down those votes would have gone back to Labour.

Byronic · December 2019

Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?

rottenborough · December 2019

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1205269809040154635

RobD · December 2019

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1205269809040154635

WhisperingOracle · December 2019

Jason said:
Labour's vote share catastrophic. A fearful and bloody slaughter on the cards.

Looks about 50-60 so far, but could be even better or worse than the exit poll, depending on crazy regional swings.

numbertwelve · December 2019

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?

Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic

ydoethur · December 2019

OOOPS - ‘Brexit Poll’ - brilliant Freudian slip by Edwards!
Curtice saying the exit poll borne out so far.

DavidL · December 2019

That Blyth result must exceed even the exit poll. Amazing result.

Floater · December 2019

ydoethur said:

Floater said:
John Bercow describes early results as "catastrophic for Labour"
Understatement of the 21st century.

Will finish off the beers then onto the Scotch then....

RobD · December 2019

Arise, Lord Curtice!

GIN1138 · December 2019

Blyth surely suggests a Conservative landslide?

Alistair · December 2019

Anyone got a link to the November YouGov MRP pdf?

nico67 · December 2019

Looks like the BP might in many seats take enough from the Labour Party even if the Tories don’t increase their vote much to allow them through .

The Tories better deliver for those Labour Leave areas .

bigjohnowls · December 2019

speedy2 said:
Average swing after 3 results, 7%.
Majority of 104 with UNS.

We need some Remain seats as well

Andy_JS · December 2019

Blyth Valley was number 116 on the Tory target list:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

KentRising · December 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

KentRising said:
Did the Brexit Party help or hinder the Tories in Blyth Valley?
Help, massively. This is what I said about them standing in red seats - the Leavers who could stomach voting for the Tories did so. Those who could never vote Tory under any circumstances went BXP instead of Labour.

Had BXP stood down those votes would have gone back to Labour.

The Brexit Party proving to be the, ahem, Tories' backstop....

Byronic · December 2019

numbertwelve said:

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?
Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic

She's probably crying. Again. Heh

Slackbladder · December 2019

The Curtice has been activated....

Brom · December 2019

This is a lot of fun PB Tories. I hope in particular Francis AKA Tweek is feeling better about things!

Jonathan · December 2019

rottenborough said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Can someone check on Owen Jones?
Not sounding too good.

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840

Jones is a fool.

RobD · December 2019

Andy_JS said:
Blyth Valley was number 116 on the Tory target list:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Majority of 200?

Casino_Royale · December 2019

I seem to have made some really shitty bets this election.

I've bet on all the wrong Tory holds and I fear won't be on the right gains.

Might only be up a tiny smidgen!

IanB2 · December 2019

DavidL said:
That Blyth result must exceed even the exit poll. Amazing result.

Exit poll said 56% chance of a Tory gain.

Nevertheless Curtice on the BBC now explaining the weakness of the seat predictions. In particular the sampling points in Scotland are fewer.

KentRising · December 2019

Byronic said:

numbertwelve said:

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?
Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic
She's probably crying. Again. Heh

One of her tweets has already been featured on the Beeb. Lashing out, upset.

Loving it.

TOPPING · December 2019

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Can someone check on Owen Jones?

The comments under his tweets are stupendously funny. Half yes it was Brexit, half no it was Corbyn you twat. I'm with the latter half.

HaroldO · December 2019

RobD said:
Arise, Lord Curtice!

Beat me to it, damn iplayer lag.

Time_to_Leave · December 2019

Hmmm. Curtice casts doubt on SNP numbers.

I took it they have less coverage.

brokenwheel · December 2019

nico67 said:
Looks like the BP might in many seats take enough from the Labour Party even if the Tories don’t increase their vote much to allow them through .

It's almost like I said exactly this a few days ago...

Andy_JS · December 2019

John Curtice: less confident of the exit poll in Scotland due to fewer sampling points.

Slackbladder · December 2019

Blythe Valley, the new Nuneaton...

EPG · December 2019

Byronic said:

numbertwelve said:

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?
Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic
She's probably crying. Again. Heh

You were pretending to be a remainer a few months ago.

Casino_Royale · December 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:
Congrats to Robert Smithson.

Fantastic prediction.
My prediction wasn't far off.

You and Sean Fear did well.

Philip_Thompson · December 2019

Thank you so much to every Remainer MP like Soubry, Grieve and all the others who rejected Theresa May's deal.

Tonight would have been impossible without their hard work. Thank you!

isam · December 2019

Does @FrancisUrquhart sheet update on its own? What do I have to do?

Pulpstar · December 2019

Blyth valley was as forecast on exit poll

Floater · December 2019

Jonathan said:

rottenborough said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Can someone check on Owen Jones?
Not sounding too good.

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840
Jones is a fool.

On that we can agree

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

Alistair said:
Anyone got a link to the November YouGov MRP pdf?

https://bit.ly/2snr4Rw

Sunil_Prasannan · December 2019

bigjohnowls said:

speedy2 said:
Average swing after 3 results, 7%.
Majority of 104 with UNS.
We need some Remain seats as well

Wasn't Newcastle remain?

RobD · December 2019

isam said:
Does @FrancisUrquhart sheet update on its own? What do I have to do?

He's tinkering on the back-end. BBC changed stuff so a bit of a scramble.

Foxy · December 2019

numbertwelve said:
I never thought I would see the day that Blyth Valley voted for a Tory

Blyth Valley has an unusually old population. High boomer count. 36.5% boomers

Houghton and Sunderland South 35.9% boomer.

National average is 31.7%

Newcastle Central is 22.1% boomer.

I think this is why we are seeing differential swings between these seats.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · December 2019

rottenborough said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Can someone check on Owen Jones?
Not sounding too good.

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840

Good. One of the worst of the current crop of pretendy journalists.

John Harris knew what was coming.

Byronic · December 2019

YOU KNOW WHAT?

YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

nico67 · December 2019

RobD said:
Marr saying Lords may sit between Xmas and New Years!

Why on earth would they need to do that . The EU can’t ratify until January anyway .

speedy2 · December 2019

Time_to_Leave said:
Hmmm. Curtice casts doubt on SNP numbers.

I took it they have less coverage.

I suspected so.

RobD · December 2019

nico67 said:

RobD said:
Marr saying Lords may sit between Xmas and New Years!

Why on earth would they need to do that . The EU can’t ratify until January anyway .

To get all the domestic stuff out of the way?

Morris_Dancer · December 2019

It's still early, but it's only worth staying up much longer if one's in it for the long haul, and I won't be (had kind of planned for that, but I do need to do some work tomorrow).

Anyway, hope you all have fun celebrating/drowning your sorrows.

TheScreamingEagles · December 2019

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:
Congrats to Robert Smithson.

Fantastic prediction.
My prediction wasn't far off.
You and Sean Fear did well.

Leadership figures, it is always the leadership figures.

Floater · December 2019

EPG said:

Byronic said:

numbertwelve said:

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?
Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic
She's probably crying. Again. Heh
You were pretending to be a remainer a few months ago.

he is still pretending to be someone else....

StuartDickson · December 2019

Casino_Royale said:
I seem to have made some really shitty bets this election.

I've bet on all the wrong Tory holds and I fear won't be on the right gains.

Might only be up a tiny smidgen!

I was slightly concerned at your hung-ho confidence.

I didn’t have a f...ing clue, and I was wondering where on earth you were getting your intelligence from.

CarlottaVance · December 2019

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205271422714753025?s=20

KentRising · December 2019

Slackbladder said:
Blythe Valley, the new Nuneaton...

With about a thousand bells on.

Slackbladder · December 2019

dodgy stuff in Paisley it seems.

Pulpstar · December 2019

Have different areas gone native ?

dr_spyn · December 2019

Some police action in Scotland re impersonation.

Time_to_Leave · December 2019

RobD said:

isam said:
Does @FrancisUrquhart sheet update on its own? What do I have to do?
He's tinkering on the back-end. BBC changed stuff so a bit of a scramble.

Are you going to update your graph with tonight’s poll?

llef · December 2019

yougov mrp had con 37 lab 45

Scrapheap_as_was · December 2019

I was up for blyth valley

Jonathan · December 2019

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:
Congrats to Robert Smithson.

Fantastic prediction.
My prediction wasn't far off.
You and Sean Fear did well.

My call of 1983 result wasn't that far off.

Andy_JS · December 2019

Alistair said:
Anyone got a link to the November YouGov MRP pdf?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0

MarqueeMark · December 2019

numbertwelve said:

Byronic said:
Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?
Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic

There isn't enough gin in the world.....

StuartDickson · December 2019

houndtang said:
turns out calling people racists and fools for three and half years isn't a vote winner.

Worked for Boris.

llef · December 2019

llef said:
yougov mrp had con 37 lab 45

for blyth valley

Philip_Thompson · December 2019

Interesting the Conservatives are claiming victory already on Facebook. Not waiting for the results.

RobD · December 2019

Time_to_Leave said:

RobD said:

isam said:
Does @FrancisUrquhart sheet update on its own? What do I have to do?
He's tinkering on the back-end. BBC changed stuff so a bit of a scramble.
Are you going to update your graph with tonight’s poll?

I'm ashamed to admit it underestimated the Tory lead.

ydoethur · December 2019

Scrapheap_as_was said:
I was up blyth valley

TMI...

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