politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

Huh. I just checked Electoral Calculus on a whim and instead of a majority of 20 it now has 46, i.e. 348 seats, the exact SportingIndex midpoint. Apologies if this has been noted.

BluerBlue said:

Huh. I just checked Electoral Calculus on a whim and instead of a majority of 20 it now has 46, i.e. 348 seats. Apologies if this has been noted.

December 8th vs December 6th (I don't like how the previous prediction vanishes tbh)

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

And voted 63% Labour last time.

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

speedy2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

And voted 63% Labour last time.

9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.

Jason said:

Bad day for Boris, but probably the best day the Daily Mirror has had for many years. Good on the parents, though, for objecting to their son being used as a political tool.

It shouldn't matter what anyone's politics are, it's a pretty low blow when the plight of a sick 4 year old is used in an election campaign.

On the scale of things I do not think it is a bad day for Boris

He took the fight to the bedrock seats of labour and fought his corner

With the diversion of the angry set too at the hospital I expect this to be just one of those things

More important to me is the Welsh poll. We need labour to stop takimg us for granted here in Wales

And only 2 more whole days left of the campaign

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

I suspect that the dip at the end is ICM but the trend is clear. On Friday we may all be lamenting what a boring election this turned out to be even if it didn't feel that way at the time.

OldBasing said:

Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

Will this stupid bullshit get more views than Andrew Neil?

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

OldBasing said:

Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

contrarian said:

There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

And maybe, rightly so....

Evidence ?

DavidL said:

I suspect that the dip at the end is ICM but the trend is clear. On Friday we may all be lamenting what a boring election this turned out to be even if it didn't feel that way at the time.

Sorry how can you say 'the trend is clear' when survation has the tory lead blowing out and the last poll in Wales has the tories gaining eight seats.

'Polls all over the place' would be correct, surely.

RobinWiggs said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10

Endillion said:

I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree.

That’s a bit thick.

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and as Leavy.

Endillion said:

I've only just realised that James Cleverley is the MP for Braintree. This is even better than that time I discovered the Labour candidate for Dudley North is called Melanie Dudley.

Edit: Conservative candidate for Bristol North West is called Mark Weston. This just keeps getting better. Can we have a whole HoC like this please.

contrarian said:

There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

And maybe, rightly so....

It’s hard to believe all the polling in the North, Midlands and Wales is incorrect. I just think Lab supporting a 2nd ref instinctively makes it impossible for many Labour folk to support them again, regardless of Jeremy Corbyn. There were clues with Caroline Flint suddenly becoming the deal’s biggest fan. Clearly she realised how it was falling apart for Labour on the doorstep and for those MPs that still back remain the situation will be even worse.

camel said:

speedy2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

And voted 63% Labour last time.

9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.

More likely to be BXP than Con, I would have thought?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

Keep up. The mob was about three people and the adviser walked into someone's arm.

Quoting "The Boxer" seems apt...

"All lies and jests
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest..."

Could be the theme tune for this Election

Claudette Beef in Angus?

Survation still deleted from Wiki poll list.

Are some people betting on the ICM whilst being unaware of Survation?

ICM is a poor poll for Con but surely offset by the Welsh YouGov. Wales is only 5% of the UK but has large number of marginal seats so is disproportionately important.

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?

Anyone called Jim in Derbyshire Dales

theprof said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast

But do you care? Do any Tories care?

If they do I haven't seen it.

No.

However - newsflash - nor does Corbyn. He just sees it as a useful propaganda opportunity.

MikeL said:

Survation still deleted from Wiki poll list.

Are some people betting on the ICM whilst being unaware of Survation?

ICM is a poor poll for Con but surely offset by the Welsh YouGov. Wales is only 5% of the UK but has large number of marginal seats so is disproportionately important.

South Wales is also one of those 'used to be labour's back yard' areas. IF its happening there, its more likely to be happening in old labour areas.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.

I think I’m on Labour in both of those! 😳

I don't expect Labour to lose either of them, but I thought there was value in the bets nonetheless.

Andy_JS said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

A few days ago I placed two constituency bets (the only ones I've done). One was laying Ed in Doncaster North, the other was laying Labour in Barnsley East.

http://ow.ly/ZgRU30q0h5Y

This suggests the Tories are giving Doncaster North a real go, would be symbolic if Ed, the architect of Labour chaos were to lose his seat. I expect the extra spending the Tories have and the barrage of Facebook adverts will effect voting decisions in the final days more than anything that happens on the national stage.

camel said:

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?

I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.

Cookie said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...

That’s wishful thinking.

Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

That’s not British.

Cookie said:

camel said:

speedy2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1204100713170788353

Barnsley Central was estimated 68% Leave.

And voted 63% Labour last time.

9/1 Con if you think a 19.9% swing likely.

More likely to be BXP than Con, I would have thought?

10/1 BXP if you think a 27.7% swing likely.

Personally I expect a sizeable (7+) swing to BXP, smaller swing to Con, and a comfortable Labour hold.

If Labour lose Barnsley Central then I expect the SNP will be the official opposition.

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...

That’s wishful thinking.

Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

That’s not British.

The general election of 1784, where the Prime Minister was nearly lynched by a mob from the opposition Brooks’ club, waves hello.

nico67 said:

Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

Yep, have to agree. Unforced error from him with that phone, and absolute gold dust for Corbyn.

It's got the NHS smack bang central news 3 days before the election. This will test Johnson's teflon coating to destruction.

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...

That’s wishful thinking.

Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

That’s not British.

Whats British changes, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. When the countries leaderships actively try and divide us why be surprised when that results in people over reacting and being nasty to each other.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

theprof said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast

But do you care? Do any Tories care?

If they do I haven't seen it.

Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away

The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.

BannedinnParis said:

only just got to Penistone.

Geoffrey Cox, obviously. There are two standing; one for the Tories and one for what remains of UKIP.

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour

A mob of 3 ! Stop digging . Bozo screwed up with his response, just admit it and move on .

nico67 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobinWiggs said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10

No 10 sources briefed Laura K and she parroted that on her Twitter feed . That’s what happened . No 10 is turning into Trumps WH .

A cesspit of fake news !

Oh give up the confected outrage!

From the video it looks like an accident. Someone is waving their arms around not looking at where they were pointing and it caught someone else. The arm wasn't stationery or at the side if this was football it would have been a foul even if it was an accident.

The person who was clipped by the person waving their arms around may have quite reasonably thought and said they were punched without realising it was an accident until the video surfaced. Don't assume conspiracy when it could be a mistake - like the guy in the video caught someone else in the face by mistake.

6% for the LDs in Wales is pretty hopeless, even though it's not one of their stronger areas.

Chris said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

theprof said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast

But do you care? Do any Tories care?

If they do I haven't seen it.

Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away

The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.

Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident

https://twitter.com/MPIainDS/status/1202969400514625536?s=20

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 36% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
BXP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 36% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
BXP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.

Tory lead up even with Comres then

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

contrarian said:

There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

And maybe, rightly so....

Evidence ?

FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.

How accurately were you able to predict the overall result in Broxtowe in 1997, 2001, etc, from canvassing?

Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

Chris said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobinWiggs said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

THat kinder, gentler politics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7773113/Labour-activist-PUNCHES-Matt-Hancocks-adviser-Leeds-hospital.html

It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.

Do you have evidence for the No10 link?

It was put out by Laura Kunnesberg. Lazy politics to blame no 10

The Mail credits "Tory sources".

Was the Mail not reporting earlier that someone had actually been arrested for punching a Tory adviser in the face?

Stories that inaccurate don't come out of an honest mistake.

The original story isn't honest journalism but a confected smear, so why should the response to it be?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 36% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
BXP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (=)

Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.

This is based on the Gina Miller poll with no prompting.

ydoethur said:

camel said:

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

speedy2 said:

I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?

I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.

One of the most interesting lines of enquiry in the post-results analysis will be whether there is any significant difference in the swing against Corbynistas. I suspect figures like Cooper are more likely to retain traditional Labour support. What we’re hearing again and again (much more than it being about Brexit) is that the turn towards the Tories is motivated by contempt for Corbyn.

wooliedyed said:

Screaming you're not welcome in this country at people is a definite sign of the kinder gentler politics

Where the PM starts, the rest will follow.