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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets firm up even more on a CON majority

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    6% for the LDs in Wales is pretty hopeless, even though it's not one of their stronger areas.

    Which is ironic because until the 1970s it always was their strongest area. In 1935, one-third of their seats were in Wales. In 1955 it was half, including the party leader. In 1906, they won 82% of Welsh seats. In 1979 they were reduced to one, and in 2017 they were, for the first time ever, wiped out when Plaid took Ceredigion from Mark Williams.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 36% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    BXP: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.


    That's the Remain United poll I think. MRP update to come?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    That Savanta Comres poll . Not bad given some of the horror polls for Labour over the weekend .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    edited December 2019

    dispatching Matt Hancock to deal with it

    Fck me, talk about adding insult to injury.
  • Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
  • Miss Scarlett didn't last long on here did she?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Miss Scarlett didn't last long on here did she?

    She was done in the lobby with the ban hammer.
  • Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    BluerBlue said:

    nico67 said:

    Absolutely awful ITV news segment for Bozo .

    What is ITV? :wink:

    I jest, but I literally haven't watched a moment of it in the last 4 years...
    It’s like C4 News, but with viewers.
  • HYUFD said:
    Is he trying to encourage people to send more by tweeting his address, in the hope of generating more outrage?
    Needless to say, sending dead rats in the post is not ok, whatever you think of the way that IDS presided over a policy that has increased child poverty and pushed some people to suicide.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Amen ! She apologized .
  • Any more polls due?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

  • llefllef Posts: 301
    On Betfair exchange, I'm sure that NOM was 5.1 this morning - its 4.5 now.
    That seems strange to me given the good Welsh poll for the Cons - is it all down the Boris phone farrago?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
    I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

    Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?
    I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

    Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.
    If lamppost placards are an indicator, BXP home and dry in Hemsworth.

    As an aside, do other local authorities allow lamppost placards? I have only ever seen them in Wakefield MC District,
  • nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:
    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    What was absolutely true was a hate filled hard left rent a mob was sent to a hospital to harass and intimate.

    Outrageous behaviour by Corbyn Labour
    A mob of 3 ! Stop digging . Bozo screwed up with his response, just admit it and move on .
    Of course it was not a mob and Boris did mishandle it

    And that is my honest answer as a conservative member
    Looks like "Dave" who offered to arrange taxi's via the Labour press office, didn't have enough cash to pay for many only a few.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Poor from Laura K. There’s no point reporting that sort of thing unless you’ve seen it yourself or there’s video evidence.
  • .
    nico67 said:

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Amen ! She apologized .
    That’s nowhere near good enough. The BBC have been repeatedly played by the Conservatives during this election and have put in by a country mile their worst performance of giving appropriate coverage of the election campaign in living memory. There must be a searching inquiry when the dust has settled and major changes must be made. Some of those with the most senior editorial responsibility need to be put out to pasture.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    HYUFD said:
    Is he trying to encourage people to send more by tweeting his address, in the hope of generating more outrage?
    Needless to say, sending dead rats in the post is not ok, whatever you think of the way that IDS presided over a policy that has increased child poverty and pushed some people to suicide.
    He probably sent it to himself to elicit sympathy . Vile man ! At least if there’s to be a Tory majority it would give a few crumbs if IDS and Raab were sent packing .
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    Ah, a mysterious "first time Labour voter" switching directly from Conservative. Horseshit.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:



    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.


    Waste of resources sending them to Wyoming in the first place. It's solidly GOP...
    Excellent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    camel said:

    ydoethur said:

    camel said:

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    speedy2 said:

    I'll believe the Barnsley thing only if Labour are also panicking in Pontefract, it's closer that Barnsley and more Leavy.

    Momentum were directing volunteers from WY to nearby Hemsworth this weekend.
    I assume that's to help Jon Tricket because he's a Corbinist, rather than any particular panic.

    Cooper (NorPonCas), Creagh(Wakefield), Sherriff (Dewsbury) etc not pure enough to support?
    I don’t know. Hemsworth is one area I’ve been looking at thinking something funny might happen. Strongly leave and with a candidate who, for all his vast ability, is also as charismatic as a damp cloth and nearer seventy than sixty.

    Would be a shock - but less of a shock than Easington or Ashton and there are plenty of rumours about those two.
    If lamppost placards are an indicator, BXP home and dry in Hemsworth.

    As an aside, do other local authorities allow lamppost placards? I have only ever seen them in Wakefield MC District,
    If they were indicative, Chris Davies would have waltzed home in Brecon and Radnor.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Andrew said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 36% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    BXP: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 6-8 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Dec.


    That's the Remain United poll I think. MRP update to come?
    The Remain United was a lead of 6, rubbished by Tory supporters here because they didn't prompt for candidates. This is a lead of 7. Did they prompt for candidates in this one?
  • Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    Wall to wall coverage of the New Zealand tragedy this evening..
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I would think we’d expect a Kantar poll tonight .

    That last reported on 2nd December , unless they’re changing the polling cycle .
  • Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
  • ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
  • tlg86 said:

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Poor from Laura K. There’s no point reporting that sort of thing unless you’ve seen it yourself or there’s video evidence.
    When we have seen orchestrated series of lies and half truths being pushed by all parties you cant expect to be a credible BBC news reporter if you insist on being first to publish without checking evidence. You just cant.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    BluerBlue said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    Ah, a mysterious "first time Labour voter" switching directly from Conservative. Horseshit.
    No - the horseshit I was responding to came from Big G, who "believed" the child's parents were unhappy about the way he had been "used" in this "Labour stunt."
  • 10/10 definitely will vote by voting intention...

    Conservative 81%
    Lib Dems 78%
    Labour 77%

    Opinium 4-6 December
    #GE2019
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    Is this Con +7 another Remain United ComRes (with no constituency prompt) or is it a "mainstream ComRes"?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    .

    nico67 said:

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Amen ! She apologized .
    That’s nowhere near good enough. The BBC have been repeatedly played by the Conservatives during this election and have put in by a country mile their worst performance of giving appropriate coverage of the election campaign in living memory. There must be a searching inquiry when the dust has settled and major changes must be made. Some of those with the most senior editorial responsibility need to be put out to pasture.
    Just abolish the TV Tax
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
  • Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    llef said:

    On Betfair exchange, I'm sure that NOM was 5.1 this morning - its 4.5 now.
    That seems strange to me given the good Welsh poll for the Cons - is it all down the Boris phone farrago?

    More likely the ICM poll with 42/36.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited December 2019
    Maybe Boris will make Laura K the Empress of the BBC when they have the licence fee taken off them and go subscription? :D
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    MikeL said:

    Is this Con +7 another Remain United ComRes (with no constituency prompt) or is it a "mainstream ComRes"?

    +1, and Remain United.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
    BBC also.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    MikeL said:

    Is this Con +7 another Remain United ComRes (with no constituency prompt) or is it a "mainstream ComRes"?

    Remain United I think. Previous one was 42/36, this is 43/36.
  • Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Wednesday would indeed be bad, but remember how rapid the news cycle is now. I'm obsessed with this election, but if you put a gun to my head and asked me to tell you what happened 3 days ago, I'd probably get it wrong!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    They mentioned that on the BBC news, it was our friend Laura K who said it.
  • There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
    What a surprise!
  • Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
    +1
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    MikeL said:

    Is this Con +7 another Remain United ComRes (with no constituency prompt) or is it a "mainstream ComRes"?

    Unless they’ve changed methodology then it’s the same as before with no constituency prompt , however even allowing for that it’s still a relief for Labour because their 36 is supported by the ICM which shows the same which does prompt .

  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.
    And BBC but please yourself
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
    Lol nobody's ever accused me of being a drama queen before :smile:
  • Wait a minute, I do remember what happened 3 days ago - it was Andrew Neil!

    Doesn't that feel like a lifetime ago?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
    Lol nobody's ever accused me of being a drama queen before :smile:
    You had a touch of the Dan Hodges going on there ;)
  • Having read various descriptions of the interview and the incident I didn't think the interview was as damaging for Johnson as I expected it to be. Obviously a graphic example of queuing in A&E is bad for the Tories but all elections have these sort of events (Jennifer's ear?). Johnson didn't handle the interview particularly well but ambushing a politician with a sodding photo on a mobile phone is not really on. Horrible emotionalism plus expecting someone to peer at the screen during an interview... How would an undecided voter react to both videos? Marginally against the Tories perhaps although the unpleasant heckling of the second might wipe out the impact of the first if both were viewed.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
    Yes, who amongst us hasn’t pocketed someone’s phone when they show us an unpleasant image? Happens every day. Perfectly normal behaviour.

    FFS.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:
    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
    The general election of 1784, where the Prime Minister was nearly lynched by a mob from the opposition Brooks’ club, waves hello.
    Yes, doubtless if you reach far enough back into history you can find ugly scenes. There were some pretty unhealthy and nasty riots in the 1830s and 1840s too.

    Nevertheless there’s some unpleasantness in this election that is very much at odds with the accepted way we’ve conducted our campaigns since the mass franchise.
  • Having read various descriptions of the interview and the incident I didn't think the interview was as damaging for Johnson as I expected it to be. Obviously a graphic example of queuing in A&E is bad for the Tories but all elections have these sort of events (Jennifer's ear?). Johnson didn't handle the interview particularly well but ambushing a politician with a sodding photo on a mobile phone is not really on. Horrible emotionalism plus expecting someone to peer at the screen during an interview... How would an undecided voter react to both videos? Marginally against the Tories perhaps although the unpleasant heckling of the second might wipe out the impact of the first if both were viewed.

    What is wrong with ambushing politicians with video or audio? Otherwise they just always claim they have not seen it. If a journalist wants their reaction to a short piece of media it seems entirely appropriate to have it available to show.
  • tlg86 said:

    .

    nico67 said:

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Amen ! She apologized .
    That’s nowhere near good enough. The BBC have been repeatedly played by the Conservatives during this election and have put in by a country mile their worst performance of giving appropriate coverage of the election campaign in living memory. There must be a searching inquiry when the dust has settled and major changes must be made. Some of those with the most senior editorial responsibility need to be put out to pasture.
    Just abolish the TV Tax

    Agree,totally absurd tax,should have been phased out at the same time as monocles & spats.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.
    And BBC but please yourself
    Can you actually quote what was said or give a link where we can read it?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Streeter said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?
    I have a pretty good instinct for these things I think, and this is damaging. It's the timing. Could have been worse, imagine if this had happened on Wednesday. An emotive subject like this can change a swing voter's mind in an instant.

    The Tories need a massive 2 days with zero mistakes, otherwise they could be in trouble.
    Stop being a drama queen. He apologised 30 seconds after pocketing the phone. It's a gaffe, no more than that. It wont change VI in the slightest
    Yes, who amongst us hasn’t pocketed someone’s phone when they show us an unpleasant image? Happens every day. Perfectly normal behaviour.

    FFS.
    And who amongst us hadn't switched our political allegiance and vote over an oddball reaction like that? I was gonna vote Tory but but he put a phone in his pocket! I'm voting for bankruptcy instead
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Chris said:

    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.

    The boy's mother has said she does not want her son's treatment being used as a "political football".
    In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.
    In her letter, she said the actions of the media were "causing significant distress" to Jack and his family.


    General election 2019: Boris Johnson criticised over reaction to sick boy image
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
  • And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The taking the phone isn’t a huge deal , it’s just silly . The bit where Bozo says he’s giving an interview and basically doesn’t want to seem to talk about the boy , it just looks very dismissive as if he doesn’t care .

    This isnt going to be a game changer but it’s a gift to Labour in those Leave areas where Labour Leavers tend to be more worried about public services .
  • Andy_JS said:

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
    How accurately were you able to predict the overall result in Broxtowe in 1997, 2001, etc, from canvassing?
    Nick is a very polite spinner.

    Always has been, always will be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS

    Much though I detest Corbyn, it is a source of genuine amazement to me that anyone could think Hancock would be better at running the Health Service than Ashworth.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Mrs Duffy moment for the ghastly "Boris". Cons on the drift! 💃
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS

    It depends how you ask the question , other polls show Labour ahead .
  • Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:
    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
    Whats British changes, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. When the countries leaderships actively try and divide us why be surprised when that results in people over reacting and being nasty to each other.
    The path to hell is lined by such sentiments; “they deserved it.”

    We each have a duty to behave to each other with a basic level of decorum.

    Myself included.
  • ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.

    The boy's mother has said she does not want her son's treatment being used as a "political football".
    In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.
    In her letter, she said the actions of the media were "causing significant distress" to Jack and his family.


    General election 2019: Boris Johnson criticised over reaction to sick boy image
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
    If you give an interview to the Mirror saying "I am frustrated about the system and the lack of beds, which I am presuming is due to a lack of funding to the NHS to deliver the services that are required." then it is quite weird to say you dont want the interview used as a political football. What did she think she was doing?
  • BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?

    And it went viral.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    tlg86 said:

    .

    nico67 said:

    Here you go

    Laura Kunnesberg

    Happy to apologiSe for earlier confusion about the punch that wasn’t a punch outside Leeds General - 2 sources suggested it had happened but clear from video that was wrong

    Amen ! She apologized .
    That’s nowhere near good enough. The BBC have been repeatedly played by the Conservatives during this election and have put in by a country mile their worst performance of giving appropriate coverage of the election campaign in living memory. There must be a searching inquiry when the dust has settled and major changes must be made. Some of those with the most senior editorial responsibility need to be put out to pasture.
    Just abolish the TV Tax
    Alternatively, since more and more people use Computers and Mobile Phones to watch TV, they could replace it with a smaller charge on electric bills.
  • Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Floater said:
    It’s not true . The story was a lie put out by no 10.
    Yes, an object lesson to all of us about jumping on the outrage bus. Let's be slow to chide and slow to bless, as the hymn nearly says...
    That’s wishful thinking.

    Both phonegate and punchgate were absurd over-reactions, but I don’t like how nasty it’s getting on the ground.

    That’s not British.
    Whats British changes, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. When the countries leaderships actively try and divide us why be surprised when that results in people over reacting and being nasty to each other.
    The path to hell is lined by such sentiments; “they deserved it.”

    We each have a duty to behave to each other with a basic level of decorum.

    Myself included.
    Absolutely we each do, and that includes calling out our leaders when they are failing us, even when the alternative is Corbyn.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    Sky report
    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.
    And BBC but please yourself
    Can you actually quote what was said or give a link where we can read it?

    You are perfectly free to play back BBC news
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    OK one more and I'll stop. Stevenage is currently represented by Stephen McPartland.

    If I get banned for this, it was worth it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    kinabalu said:

    Mrs Duffy moment for the ghastly "Boris". Cons on the drift! 💃

    It's the hope that kills you.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    There's still an absence of faith in labour heartlands voting tory.

    And maybe, rightly so....

    Evidence ?
    FWIw, purely anecdotally, I found quite a few "former Labour now anti" people at the WWC end of the constituency who we were recanvassing who were reluctantly coming back to Labour, and colleagues said they were noticing the same, to a moderate degree. Whether that's more generally true, or even a serious trend here, I genuinely have no idea.
    Wasn't it you that did the endless tick, tock, when you were trying to convince us all that your thumb on the pulse canvassing meant you and Labour would be a shoo in? That went well.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    Mrs Duffy moment for the ghastly "Boris". Cons on the drift! 💃

    Definite parallels.

    Evening kinabalu. Where are you today - Con Maj 60 or NOC?
  • nico67 said:

    And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS

    It depends how you ask the question , other polls show Labour ahead .

    No wonder Labour are so desperate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.

    The boy's mother has said she does not want her son's treatment being used as a "political football".
    In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.
    In her letter, she said the actions of the media were "causing significant distress" to Jack and his family.


    General election 2019: Boris Johnson criticised over reaction to sick boy image
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
    If you give an interview to the Mirror saying "I am frustrated about the system and the lack of beds, which I am presuming is due to a lack of funding to the NHS to deliver the services that are required." then it is quite weird to say you dont want the interview used as a political football. What did she think she was doing?
    I would assume she hadn’t fully thought through the consequences and said more than she intended.

    This can happen to the best of us, particularly at very emotionally charged moments such as, I dunno, when your child is ill and there’s no bed for him at the local hospital.

    I can then understand that she would feel remorse for the way it has spiralled which has inevitably sucked them all in.

    But good luck putting this story back in its bottle.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Andy_JS said:

    llef said:

    On Betfair exchange, I'm sure that NOM was 5.1 this morning - its 4.5 now.
    That seems strange to me given the good Welsh poll for the Cons - is it all down the Boris phone farrago?

    More likely the ICM poll with 42/36.
    ah ok thanks - I missed that poll!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.

    The boy's mother has said she does not want her son's treatment being used as a "political football".
    In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.
    In her letter, she said the actions of the media were "causing significant distress" to Jack and his family.


    General election 2019: Boris Johnson criticised over reaction to sick boy image
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
    If you give an interview to the Mirror saying "I am frustrated about the system and the lack of beds, which I am presuming is due to a lack of funding to the NHS to deliver the services that are required." then it is quite weird to say you dont want the interview used as a political football. What did she think she was doing?
    I would assume she hadn’t fully thought through the consequences and said more than she intended.

    This can happen to the best of us, particularly at very emotionally charged moments such as, I dunno, when your child is ill and there’s no bed for him at the local hospital.

    I can then understand that she would feel remorse for the way it has spiralled which has inevitably sucked them all in.

    But good luck putting this story back in its bottle.
    Fair enough. The story will no longer be of any interest come Thursday 10pm at the latest, so it wont go on for long.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Endillion said:

    OK one more and I'll stop. Stevenage is currently represented by Stephen McPartland.

    If I get banned for this, it was worth it.

    There was an MP from Darlington called Seymour Cocks.

    The joke is ruined because he was MP for Broxtowe.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2019

    Having read various descriptions of the interview and the incident I didn't think the interview was as damaging for Johnson as I expected it to be. Obviously a graphic example of queuing in A&E is bad for the Tories but all elections have these sort of events (Jennifer's ear?). Johnson didn't handle the interview particularly well but ambushing a politician with a sodding photo on a mobile phone is not really on. Horrible emotionalism plus expecting someone to peer at the screen during an interview... How would an undecided voter react to both videos? Marginally against the Tories perhaps although the unpleasant heckling of the second might wipe out the impact of the first if both were viewed.

    The phone could have been set up to show anything. Fuck the Queen. Boris inflagrante. Or whatever. cf May being handed the papers at conference.
  • Andy_JS said:

    llef said:

    On Betfair exchange, I'm sure that NOM was 5.1 this morning - its 4.5 now.
    That seems strange to me given the good Welsh poll for the Cons - is it all down the Boris phone farrago?

    More likely the ICM poll with 42/36.
    Most bookies have NOM at 4.0 (having lengthened), Betway go 4.5, Boyle & Spreadex go 3.75
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    The headlines will be damaging from pro-Labour outlets, and very much non-damaging from pro-Tory ones, same as ever. Two more days of campaigning to make it a wash.
    This is different though. I hate to say it. There's no glossing over the fact that Boris made a serious error of judgement pocketing that phone. Most fair minded people would know that Labour always use the NHS as a weapon to bash over the head of the Tories, but...that phone....panicked Boris and that will resonate.

    Out of all of the moments I've seen this campaign, the AN interview bs, the floods, etc, this is the most damaging for Johnson. It could derail the Tories, I'm sorry to be a doom merchant here, but I have to say it as I see it.

    The timing could not have been worse, it's the NHS, it's winter, it's a 4 year old boy, the SNP, the LDs and Corbyn all piling in, but worst if all, a stupid unforced error from Boris.
    It's Andrew Neil all over again. Remember how that was going to derail everything?

    And it went viral.
    Child with pneumonia more likely to go bacterial than viral.

    The weakness of my joke aside, it's a disgrace and reflects terribly on the government, yes, but also the hospital in that it was deemed OK to treat a child with pneumonia on the floor. I know there are medics on this site who might correct me, but it must be unheard of to treat a serious infection on the floor.
  • ydoethur said:

    And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS

    Much though I detest Corbyn, it is a source of genuine amazement to me that anyone could think Hancock would be better at running the Health Service than Ashworth.
    Ii is just that there are enough people who realise that bankrupting the economy will not lead to a better health service.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Well, I'm not going to believe it unless some evidence is forthcoming.

    The boy's mother has said she does not want her son's treatment being used as a "political football".
    In a formal complaint to press regulator IPSO, she said she had initially given permission to two newspapers to use her son Jack's image but - after the story was widely reported across other news outlets - she now wanted to prevent any further publication of the picture or his details.
    In her letter, she said the actions of the media were "causing significant distress" to Jack and his family.


    General election 2019: Boris Johnson criticised over reaction to sick boy image
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50717606
    Thank you.

    So it seems what's happened is that after having spoken to the Mirror, complaining about NHS underfunding and saying she would support Labour, she has become concerned by the extent of the media coverage and wants to stop it.

    But naturally, given what she said in the first place, no indication that she thinks it was a "Labour stunt" or that her son is being "used" by Labour.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Do you know, today is the first time i actually believe Jester could still blow this.

    WTF was he thinking in that ITV interview.

    If i were him i would develop Tory man flu (like normal man flu apart from its a total lie) until Friday.

    20-40 maj nailed on

    Any more days like today possible NOM
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    WOW Only 7% between Jester and Jezza

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Preference for Prime Minister:

    Boris Johnson: 39%
    Jeremy Corbyn: 32%

    via
    @BMGResearch
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    Jason said:

    Stories like this always dominate the headlines - exactly what Labour wants. This is not a 'bubble' story either.

    Very damaging headlines 3 days before an election is bad news no matter who you support and no matter how unfair they are.

    Wall to wall coverage of the New Zealand tragedy this evening..
    Except ITV and Co News leading with Bozo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    People keep asking, ‘what was Johnson thinking?’

    Am I the only person who considers there is a false premise in this question?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    ydoethur said:

    And on the NHS

    Matthew Goodwin tweeted

    Awkward numbers for Labour

    "Which of the following would be best for the NHS?"

    Con government led by Boris Johnson w/ Matt Hancock as Health Secretary = 44%

    Lab government led by Jeremy Corbyn w/ John Ashworth as Health Security = 37%

    Deltapoll Dec 5-7
    #ge2019 #Brexit #NHS

    Much though I detest Corbyn, it is a source of genuine amazement to me that anyone could think Hancock would be better at running the Health Service than Ashworth.
    That’s a bit strong, we know the NHS under Labour in Wales is worse than the Tory run NHS in England
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    The Daily Mirror never makes things up. How dare you suggest such a thing?
    Because of the source it plays into the set up theory but Boris should have handled it better
    Can you indicate the source of your statement about the boy's parents being unhappy about his being "used," please?
    The PB Tory interpretation of the story. Boris was in a hospital saving babies for the NHS when suddenly a Labour activist attacked one of Matt Hancock's aides. In the mayhem, a boy accidentally fell to the floor, Boris didn't notice and a phone accidentally fell into his pocket. He immediately gave back the phone with a hearty guffore. Sound about right?
  • Chris said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    theprof said:

    OldBasing said:

    Two attempted dead cats from the Toris today to get Boris’ car crash interview with Joe Pike off the news. That interview now approaching 4 million views on Twitter. If you’re really 10 points ahead, why play silly buggers like this? Just stay on message. Now we’re back to the Tories faking news again. Not good.

    Will not make any difference in the scheme of things. The die is cast
    But do you care? Do any Tories care?

    If they do I haven't seen it.
    Yes I do care but I can see a labour stunt a mile away
    The boy having to lie on the floor was a "Labour stunt"? Ye Gods.
    Do not be silly. He was used and Boris did not handle it well

    I believe the parents are not happy in the way their son was used in this incident
    Well, given what's just happened, you'd better quote chapter and verse, because there's a hell of a lot of disinformation emanating from the Tory side.
    Perhaps Big G thinks the Mirror was making this up:
    And Sarah, who also has a daughter, says she will be switching her support from Conservative to Labour at the ballot box on Thursday.
    “This will the first time in my life where I will be voting Labour” she said.
    “I would like to thank the doctors and the nurses and the health care assistants because they were really good, really helpful.
    “But I’m angry at the lack of funding and the lack of beds because I think that is failing our children.”

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/little-boy-pneumonia-forced-sleep-21053225

    Ah, a mysterious "first time Labour voter" switching directly from Conservative. Horseshit.
    No - the horseshit I was responding to came from Big G, who "believed" the child's parents were unhappy about the way he had been "used" in this "Labour stunt."
    Except it turns out that it wasn't horse shit but an accurate report of their views.

    People ought to listen to Big G a bit more often. He is rarely given to exaggeration.
  • WOW Only 7% between Jester and Jezza

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    Preference for Prime Minister:

    Boris Johnson: 39%
    Jeremy Corbyn: 32%

    via
    @BMGResearch

    Wait till you see the Welsh poll...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    O/T

    Has anyone else been hit by the worst cold they've had for many years? I certainly have. Normally I get rid of them after 4 or 5 days but this one's been going on for about 10 days. Not good timing as far as election night is concerned.
This discussion has been closed.