politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair figures show that Scotland totally dominates curren
The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the September 18th referendum in Scotland when the nation’s future will be decided.
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First!0
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This really does suggest that the people of Scotland, where I am at the moment, are taking a huge interest in September’s vote. Their future is at stake.
Do we know this? Or could it be that its a simple binary bet attractive to punters across the UK?0 -
We know that from the polling. All recent surveys have those saying they are 100% certain to vote in the mid 70s or above. This is far higher than what they are saying for general or Holyrood electionsCarlottaVance said:This really does suggest that the people of Scotland, where I am at the moment, are taking a huge interest in September’s vote. Their future is at stake.
Do we know this? Or could it be that its a simple binary bet attractive to punters across the UK?
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Yes, but do we know that Scottish punters are the source of the bets,,...?MikeSmithson said:
We know that from the polling. All recent surveys have those saying they are 100% certain to vote in the mid 70s or above. This is far higher than what they are saying for general or Holyrood electionsCarlottaVance said:This really does suggest that the people of Scotland, where I am at the moment, are taking a huge interest in September’s vote. Their future is at stake.
Do we know this? Or could it be that its a simple binary bet attractive to punters across the UK?
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FPT:
Unlike you, I would not make the Boy Scout schoolboy error of assuming any one event (let alone a single radio interview - which you still haven't listened to, have you?) moves polls, let alone one where much of the field work would have been conducted before the interview....BobaFett said:Car crash bounce for Labour.
One for Carlotta Vance.
You still also appear to be labouring under the delusion that the import of Falkirk lies in voting intention polls in rUK, not in SLAB's woeful SIndy ref performance,.....
Why not regale us instead with your extensive experience of council estates?0 -
Something else Labour won't be commenting on today (it's led Today after the Korean ferry disaster):
Britain's Co-operative Group will report a loss of more than 2 billion pounds on Thursday, laying bare the full damage done by disastrous acquisitions, a drugs scandal and an exodus of executives that have put its future as a mutual into doubt.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/cooperativegroup-results-idINL6N0N83H8201404160 -
Latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection Countdown :
2 hours 3 minutes 4 seconds0 -
Good morning campers!!!0
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The Euro elections , MEPs and the Euro parly mean zero to most citizens - what even happens there apart from troughing ??
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.0 -
Morning all. No one cares about the EU elections. Lots of people care about the Scottish independence referendum.
And I'm buggered if I can find shadsy's market on Lib Dem MEPs despite my best efforts, so I can't increase the betting spend on this even though I want to.0 -
Morning all, I am sure if you stopped 50 people on any major town High Street, 49 of them would not realise there are Euro elections 5 weeks today. The few who would know would tell you they are not as important as local council elections and they don't feature with most.
Is it possible the Euro turnout could be even lower than in 2009? If so I suspect that would be great news for UKIP, good news for the Tories and very bad news for Labour.0 -
Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html0 -
To quote UKIP, this is "sloppy"
£278K on Indy Ref vs £251K GE most votes vs £156K GE majority in no way, shape, or form, "totally dominates" current political betting0 -
Carlotta makes an interesting point. I suspect most of the betting on the Indy Ref has been by people who don't actually have a vote in September.
Meanwhile has the Coop called in Labour's overdraft yet and stopped funding Labour MPs?0 -
The Mirror finds itself in hot water over yesterday's front page:
The Daily Mirror is in hot water over today's poster-style front page image showing a little girl crying to illustrate a campaign about poverty in Britain.
But the girl is not British. It was taken years ago. And she is not weeping because she is poor. In fact, she is American, the daughter of a photographer, and was upset by an earthworm.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/apr/16/daily-mirror-news-photography0 -
I think the BBC are stoking the indy debate - far too much free publicity for the Nats for my liking.0
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Click here for the Lib Dem MEPs marketantifrank said:Morning all. No one cares about the EU elections. Lots of people care about the Scottish independence referendum.
And I'm buggered if I can find shadsy's market on Lib Dem MEPs despite my best efforts, so I can't increase the betting spend on this even though I want to.
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/0 -
why let the truth get in the way of a good piece of anti-Tory propaganda?CarlottaVance said:The Mirror finds itself in hot water over yesterday's front page:
The Daily Mirror is in hot water over today's poster-style front page image showing a little girl crying to illustrate a campaign about poverty in Britain.
But the girl is not British. It was taken years ago. And she is not weeping because she is poor. In fact, she is American, the daughter of a photographer, and was upset by an earthworm.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/apr/16/daily-mirror-news-photography
Wonder if the Coop will call in Gordon Brown and Ed Balls to save the group. After all they saved the world economy didn't they!
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Aaronovich taking no prisoners and inviting the simultaneous wrath of both the Cybernats and Ukipers:
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4065288.ece
The Ukip and SNP leaders come from different political traditions but they share more than they’ll ever admit
When Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage look at each other, what do they see? Opposites? That’s certainly what their supporters claim. Mr Farage’s anti-Europeanism is decried as right-wing by the supporters of Scottish independence. Mr Farage, for his part, sees the Yes campaigners as vandals wanting to break up a valuable union.
Farage is shorthand here for those in the UK, including around a third of Tories. who want separation from the EU — or Brexit as it’s known. Salmond is a figurehead for those in Scotland who want separation from the UK — or Sexit as it isn’t known, but should
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We got our polling cards yesterday for the Euros and my wife was quite surprised as she had not appreciated they were coming up. In contrast she seems to feel even more strongly about the Indy referendum than I do.
At the risk of simply repeating anecdotes I have had dozens of different conversations about the Indy referendum which has certainly got the attention of Scots in a major way. In contrast the only time I discuss the Euros is on here.
The No campaign will be due another major fiscal boost from Nick when the percentage voting falls yet again. IIRC there is £10 at stake.0 -
I think you're broadly correct.TGOHF said:The Euro elections , MEPs and the Euro parly mean zero to most citizens - what even happens there apart from troughing ??
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.
The Indy referendum is of far more direct importance and relevance to far more people and much easier to understand :
You put your NO hand IN,
You put your YES hand OUT,
You put both hands up,
And you shake them all about,
You do the Eckey Feck-em
And you turn yourself around
That what it's all about ....
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Turnout Turnout .... Shake it all about !!
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@DAaronovitch: Interestingly it's Sexiteers who object to my Farage-Salmond piece on Twitter and Brexiteers who don't like it online. U guys should meet!CarlottaVance said:Aaronovich taking no prisoners and inviting the simultaneous wrath of both the Cybernats and Ukipers:
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Little early, isn't it, Jack?JackW said:
I think you're broadly correct.TGOHF said:The Euro elections , MEPs and the Euro parly mean zero to most citizens - what even happens there apart from troughing ??
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.
The Indy referendum is of far more direct importance and relevance to far more people and much easier to understand :
You put your NO hand IN,
You put your YES hand OUT,
You put both hands up,
And you shake them all about,
You do the Eckey Feck-em
And you turn yourself around
That what it's all about ....
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Turnout Turnout .... Shake it all about !!0 -
The Scottish referendum is a MAJOR thing. Our country could be 5 months away from coming to an end.
The Euro elections are protest vote flim-flam with essentially zero impact on people's lives in thre real world. You can happily vote MRLP and it wouldn't matter a jot (no offensive intended JohnLoony - your lot are more coherent than the LibDems!).0 -
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You do realise @JohnLoony's a Tory now...?Patrick said:The Scottish referendum is a MAJOR thing. Our country could be 5 months away from coming to an end.
The Euro elections are protest vote flim-flam with essentially zero impact on people's lives in thre real world. You can happily vote MRLP and it wouldn't matter a jot (no offensive intended JohnLoony - your lot are more coherent than the LibDems!).0 -
Jack I hope it is only coincidental that the next McArse prediction is to be released at the same time as the diabolical Coop results? 53 minutes and counting!!0
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Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...0 -
CharlesCharles said:
To resume our conversation of a few days ago:
You are correct in emphasising the importance of the UK workforce adding value but I suspect you think this can be mostly achieved at the top end ** .
The top 10% or even the top 20% are unable to add enough value to support the economy as a whole and to keep the rest of the population in the style to which they've become accustomed.
And even if they could they would be disinclined to remain here if it meant paying the necessary taxes to subsidise the wealth consumption of the majority of the population. In a globalised world such high value adders would be able to move to countries with lower taxes or higher living standards or better weather.
We need therefore to rebalance the economy so that people throughout the economic scale can add value.
** This seems to be a common belief among people at the top end of the economic scale and is based on the view of "I'm successful, I'm important, people like me are the future, the government should support people like me".
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Certainly not.Charles said:
Little early, isn't it, Jack?JackW said:
I think you're broadly correct.TGOHF said:The Euro elections , MEPs and the Euro parly mean zero to most citizens - what even happens there apart from troughing ??
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.
The Indy referendum is of far more direct importance and relevance to far more people and much easier to understand :
You put your NO hand IN,
You put your YES hand OUT,
You put both hands up,
And you shake them all about,
You do the Eckey Feck-em
And you turn yourself around
That what it's all about ....
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Turnout Turnout .... Shake it all about !!
It's never too early for a romp through the archives.
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Good morning, everyone.
I'm unsurprised by this. The referendum is a thousand times more important than the European elections.
With an election, the result is always that a certain number of people are chosen for political office. They might differ a little, or a lot, but the only question is over who gets the job.
The referendum is inherently more important because it will determine the future of the whole United Kingdom (or lack thereof).0 -
You'll find out tomorrow that I think your question is misconceived (not a party political point because I differ from Richard Nabavi and almost everyone else on this site, having done my detailed research).BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...0 -
Oh dear. On the defensive already and it's not even breakfast time.CarlottaVance said:
Another car crash beckons!
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Basic arithmetic fiendishly complicated?TGOHF said:
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.
A system which for a given distribution of votes gives a precise and instantly calculable distribution of seats? Fiendishly complicated?
I'd love to hear your characterization of FPTP...0 -
You're the one not answering questions.....still not listened to the Balls interview, which you think can influence polls conducted before it happened?BobaFett said:
Oh dear. On the defensive already and it's not even breakfast time.CarlottaVance said:
Another car crash beckons!
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I'll try and make DD on 2nd May. It's 2 days after my 80th birthday party, though. To much excitement is probably not good for me.
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Chortle ....Easterross said:Jack I hope it is only coincidental that the next McArse prediction is to be released at the same time as the diabolical Coop results? 53 minutes and counting!!
I'm not giving too much away by saying that the YES camp numbers will be slightly better than those of the Co-op !!
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Antifrank really enjoyed your blog. Will try and look at it more often.0
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OGH has made it perfectly clear that those who imply a poster is another poster will be banned.BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
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To continue.Charles said:
You made a reference to 'old fashioned metal bashing' or suchlike.
That seems to be an echo of the economic problems and solutions of the 1970s but needs changing as the economy has changed since that period.
There are very few low value adding workers remaining in the wealth creating sectors and those that do - food processing and tourism for example - are tied by location to this country.
Where the low value adding workers are is in the wealth consuming sectors.
And this is where the big change to the economy and the government attitude to it has happened since the 1970s.
In the 1970s the government subsidised inefficient low value adding wealth creation in the nationalised industries. The result was huge coal stockpiles and cars which couldn't be sold.
Now the government subsidises wealth consumption through borrowing money and distributing it through higher pay and benefits (and in some cases lower taxes) than would otherwise be the case.
This is electorally beneficial to governments as there are millions of beneficiaries both with the wealth consumers spending more money and the suppliers to them receiving more money.
In the 1970s the government subsidies were concentrated in a much smaller proportion of the population concentrated in the old industrial areas.
This also helps explain the trends in unemployment, productivity and wages.
After the 1970s subsidies to the old nationalised industries were phased out and they either became profitable or shut down. The consequence was the parts which were least efficient shut down causing higher unemployment but also overall higher productivity and consequently higher wages.
Now though the government has continued to subsidise wealth consumption and without the resulting spur to higher efficiency unemployment has remained lower and productivity performance has been so dismal with poor wages growth the inevitable consequence.
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What bollocks, considering they are rabidly promoting unionist viewpoint your comment is crass to say the least. Even outside that, given it is the most important event in the UK for many many years why would they not provide blanket coverage.JBriskin said:I think the BBC are stoking the indy debate - far too much free publicity for the Nats for my liking.
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BobaFett, to give a bit more of a teaser, you might want to ask your question with the following four seats: Erewash, Bury North, Gloucester and Northampton North.
But I wouldn't regard that as quite right either!0 -
There's something a bit odd about Eurosceptics saying it's terrible how we are giving away vast amounts of power to the EU, and who cares about the EU elections to the Parliament that uses those powers. If people really thought the EU was deciding anything vital in their lives, they'd be keen enough to vote. I do meet quite a few people who are keen to vote, but it's nearly always on a "send them a message" basis - either "kick the Tories" or "kick the EU".
That said, people bet on all kinds of things that don't matter, like tennis and the Eurovision Song Contest and the name of a royal baby. The real problem about the Euros is that they're so hard to call. Will UKIP surge? What will differential turnout do? I think the elections are interesting and important, but I don't have a clue who's going to going to come top. By contrast, the Indyref choice is pretty clear - do we believe the current polls or the fact that they've narrowed and might narrow further?0 -
F1: practice is at 3am and 7am tomorrow. I'll probably put a pre-qualifying piece up sometime in the morning.0
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There is nothing to say either way who is betting, merely speculation so just as likely that it is people in Scotland, especially given we are told on here all the time that no-one in England gives a toss about the referendum. I would not personally take any opinion Carlotta has on Scotland given her bias and dislike of the country.Easterross said:Carlotta makes an interesting point. I suspect most of the betting on the Indy Ref has been by people who don't actually have a vote in September.
Meanwhile has the Coop called in Labour's overdraft yet and stopped funding Labour MPs?0 -
And to finish.Charles said:
This government subsidised extra wealth consumption lies at the heart of many aspects of the economy - the perpetual trade deficit, the rise in the national debt, the increase in economic migrants.
Its also a thing which is going to be very difficult to break.
We live in a society of rights and entitlements, once people reach a level of wealth consumption they believe they have an entitlement to it, And with conspicuous consumption glorified in the media there is continual demand for ever higher wealth consumption. With governments being held responsible for ultimately providing it.
I also have a theory, based on Maslow, that as wealth consumption becomes ever more intense newer, more psychological forms, will be needed by those higher on the sociodemographic scale in order to differentiate themselves from the average person.
For example I don't think it will be long before the upper middle classes believe they have an 'entitlement' to cleaners and gardeners as a measure of their status.
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Sorry for the delayed response, I've been participating in a meeting in China via phone (always painful)another_richard said:
CharlesCharles said:
To resume our conversation of a few days ago:
You are correct in emphasising the importance of the UK workforce adding value but I suspect you think this can be mostly achieved at the top end ** .
The top 10% or even the top 20% are unable to add enough value to support the economy as a whole and to keep the rest of the population in the style to which they've become accustomed.
And even if they could they would be disinclined to remain here if it meant paying the necessary taxes to subsidise the wealth consumption of the majority of the population. In a globalised world such high value adders would be able to move to countries with lower taxes or higher living standards or better weather.
We need therefore to rebalance the economy so that people throughout the economic scale can add value.
** This seems to be a common belief among people at the top end of the economic scale and is based on the view of "I'm successful, I'm important, people like me are the future, the government should support people like me".
You suspect wrong! The top end is clearly important, and adds the most value per head, but an economy that is entirely dependent on a small number of people is going to be vulnerable to external shocks, potentially unbalanced/unstable politically and will fail to provide an acceptable standard of living to the great mass of people.
My view is that low-valued added manufacturing ("metal bashing") is not a space that we should be seeking to grow. However, there are very significant areas of manufacturing which are higher skilled and sticky businesses that are worth investing in. Examples include those where quality (e.g. medical) or precision (high spec engineering) of which have high levels of capital investment where a good education is necessary to optimise the return on investment (e.g. car manufacturing). These are segments that are sticky, have sufficient value added that justify a decent income for the employees and - critically - are less exposed to wage competition0 -
Bollocks, there are as many sink estates in England as in Scotland. It is the same poverty just different location.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Mr. Palmer, it's entirely legitimate consider the EU a crock. Any British vote is of limited relevance. Even if UKIP won every seat it'd be unable to affect much because the vast majority of MEPs are non-British and pro-EU.
Of course, if your party hadn't reneged on a referendum manifesto commitment we would've had a vote by now.0 -
I don't think it will influence polls at all!!!CarlottaVance said:
You're the one not answering questions.....still not listened to the Balls interview, which you think can influence polls conducted before it happened?BobaFett said:
Oh dear. On the defensive already and it's not even breakfast time.CarlottaVance said:
Another car crash beckons!
I read the transcript you charitably copied and pasted from a newspaper we could read ourselves.
I saw some self-important interviewer interrupt Ed Balls every few seconds when Balls was trying to give an answer.
It was brill.
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I wondered why Mike wasn't about this morning.JackW said:
OGH has made it perfectly clear that those who imply a poster is another poster will be banned.BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
He's banned himself!!!
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Latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection Countdown :
20 minutes 20 seconds0 -
Fair enough - I rate you as a psephologist so I will read with great interest.antifrank said:
You'll find out tomorrow that I think your question is misconceived (not a party political point because I differ from Richard Nabavi and almost everyone else on this site, having done my detailed research).BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
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"I also have a theory, based on Maslow, that as wealth consumption becomes ever more intense newer, more psychological forms, will be needed by those higher on the sociodemographic scale in order to differentiate themselves from the average person.
For example I don't think it will be long before the upper middle classes believe they have an 'entitlement' to cleaners and gardeners as a measure of their status"
Agreed.0 -
Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.0 -
I expect 33-40%, the usual figure for secondary elections.Easterross said:Morning all, I am sure if you stopped 50 people on any major town High Street, 49 of them would not realise there are Euro elections 5 weeks today. The few who would know would tell you they are not as important as local council elections and they don't feature with most.
Is it possible the Euro turnout could be even lower than in 2009? If so I suspect that would be great news for UKIP, good news for the Tories and very bad news for Labour.
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The inept Vanilla comment system once again spazzes me about for ten minutes. Way to go.
Last nights YouGov quite interesting, Labour out of its new 35-38 box for the first time in a while - will it hold or is it a high end outlier? 39 is a good base for them to build a win from (largest party). Tory vote is grounded on avg 33 with YouGov, although it's unlikely to move far before the conference season and election run in that follows. They are effectively on core or slightly above, coiled and ready to pounce ;-)0 -
Morris, Key word - Guardian.0
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My favourite was anti frank's discovery of an article lamenting a cut in funding for ethnic minority poets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
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You misunderstand - my point was that Scottish social housing has traditionally been much more broadly based (and a bigger sector of the housing market) than England's - so Bobawhateveritisnow's automatic assumption that Social Housing in Scotland was the preserve of the DEs was pure ignorance.malcolmg said:
Bollocks, there are as many sink estates in England as in Scotland. It is the same poverty just different location.CarlottaVance said:
When I was growing up it was predominantly C1C2 with a few Bs thrown in for good measure. There were DEs - but they, according to the uncharitable, ended up in the tenement flats....
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If there's a very low turnout, it'd probably favour Labour rather than the Tories, though it'd favour UKIP most of all.Easterross said:Morning all, I am sure if you stopped 50 people on any major town High Street, 49 of them would not realise there are Euro elections 5 weeks today. The few who would know would tell you they are not as important as local council elections and they don't feature with most.
Is it possible the Euro turnout could be even lower than in 2009? If so I suspect that would be great news for UKIP, good news for the Tories and very bad news for Labour.
Most of the council elections this year - where turnout should be relatively higher - are in Labour-friendly urban areas, whereas in 2009 the local elections were in the more Tory-friendly shire counties. The local election turnout should be roughly the same whether or not the Euros are simultaneous so the swing factor is how the rest of the country turns out (though the effect will vary from region to region, depending on the proportions within them that have locals, or don't).0 -
Mr. F, however will we manage?!0
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It was your McTory buddy TGOHF who said the SNP were "trawling the sink estates to get them on the register". Raise it with him if you have a problem.CarlottaVance said:
You misunderstand - my point was that Scottish social housing has traditionally been much more broadly based (and a bigger sector of the housing market) than England's - so Bobawhateveritisnow's automatic assumption that Social Housing in Scotland was the preserve of the DEs was pure ignorance.malcolmg said:
Bollocks, there are as many sink estates in England as in Scotland. It is the same poverty just different location.CarlottaVance said:
When I was growing up it was predominantly C1C2 with a few Bs thrown in for good measure. There were DEs - but they, according to the uncharitable, ended up in the tenement flats....
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As you will note if you bothered to look Mike didn't make the direct comparison. You have.BobaFett said:
I wondered why Mike wasn't about this morning.JackW said:
OGH has made it perfectly clear that those who imply a poster is another poster will be banned.BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
He's banned himself!!!
Kindly desist.
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I guess that's why Rentoul wrote: Ed Balls was on BBC Radio 4’s World At One today, showing just how thin, defensive and selective Labour’s economic message is.BobaFett said:
It was brill.CarlottaVance said:
You're the one not answering questions.....still not listened to the Balls interview, which you think can influence polls conducted before it happened?BobaFett said:
Oh dear. On the defensive already and it's not even breakfast time.CarlottaVance said:
Another car crash beckons!
Who to believe, who to believe?
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I think you may have had a sense of humour failure this morning Jack.JackW said:
As you will note if you bothered to look Mike didn't make the direct comparison. You have.BobaFett said:
I wondered why Mike wasn't about this morning.JackW said:
OGH has made it perfectly clear that those who imply a poster is another poster will be banned.BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
He's banned himself!!!
Kindly desist.
I wasn't seriously suggesting you actually were Stuart Truth, as I am sure you know.
Don't get Arsey with me.0 -
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection :
"Should Scotland Be An Independent Country?"
Latest Figures .. (Change From Last Month)
YES 41% (+1) .. NO 59% (-1)
Turnout Projection 81% (+2)
....................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
And it was you who equated "sink estates" with "council estates" - was that out of sheer ignorance, or simple malice?BobaFett said:
It was your McTory buddy TGOHF who said the SNP were "trawling the sink estates to get them on the register". Raise it with him if you have a problem.CarlottaVance said:
You misunderstand - my point was that Scottish social housing has traditionally been much more broadly based (and a bigger sector of the housing market) than England's - so Bobawhateveritisnow's automatic assumption that Social Housing in Scotland was the preserve of the DEs was pure ignorance.malcolmg said:
Bollocks, there are as many sink estates in England as in Scotland. It is the same poverty just different location.CarlottaVance said:
When I was growing up it was predominantly C1C2 with a few Bs thrown in for good measure. There were DEs - but they, according to the uncharitable, ended up in the tenement flats....
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Kamal Ahmed @bbckamal 1m
Breaking - Co-op confirms £2.5bn losses. Bank impairment £2bn. Somerfield write down £600m #coop0 -
You mean this one?Sean_F said:
My favourite was anti frank's discovery of an article lamenting a cut in funding for ethnic minority poets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/22/poetry-jeremy-hunt-ethnic-imbalance0 -
@Carlotta
I didn't like his "trawling the sink estates" line, which was misanthropic. That's why I challenged him.
You then implied I had no knowledge of council estates.
I then informed you that I had lived on one for seven years.
You then panicked and asked whether it was a Scottish one, knowing full well that I am not Scottish.
Best, I think, to leave it there.
You can have the last word if you like - for the sake of the thread I shall not reply on this topic anymore.0 -
There is no indication from your original post that it was humorous, it was simply a bland statement.BobaFett said:
I think you may have had a sense of humour failure this morning Jack.JackW said:
As you will note if you bothered to look Mike didn't make the direct comparison. You have.BobaFett said:
I wondered why Mike wasn't about this morning.JackW said:
OGH has made it perfectly clear that those who imply a poster is another poster will be banned.BobaFett said:
Great blog post, Antifrank.antifrank said:Off topic, the first of my posts on the betting in the Conservative held marginals is now up here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
He's banned himself!!!
Kindly desist.
I wasn't seriously suggesting you actually were Stuart Truth, as I am sure you know.
Don't get Arsey with me.
Further as a poster who regularly gives betting advice I deprecate the implication that I am a poster such as "Stuart Truth" who misled the site and gave patently false information before disappearing once he was found out.
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Calling Gordon Brown, the Coop needs you to rescue them!SimonStClare said:Kamal Ahmed @bbckamal 1m
Breaking - Co-op confirms £2.5bn losses. Bank impairment £2bn. Somerfield write down £600m #coop
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The FT tracker has it on 46:54 - do you think the polls are out, or will the gap widen nearer the date?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection :
"Should Scotland Be An Independent Country?"
Latest Figures .. (Change From Last Month)
YES 41% (+1) .. NO 59% (-1)
Turnout Projection 81% (+2)
....................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
https://mobile.twitter.com/fhuszar/status/456102310326710272/photo/10 -
Under 1% of poetry books published in the UK are by black or Asian poets... this is quite simply not fairantifrank said:
You mean this one?Sean_F said:
My favourite was anti frank's discovery of an article lamenting a cut in funding for ethnic minority poets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/22/poetry-jeremy-hunt-ethnic-imbalance
And there was me thinking the criteria for whether something should be published was whether it was any good or not
I should book myself in for reprogramming.0 -
As Jack has got his ARSE out, I am going to produce my own ongoing predictions for the Indy and GE.
I currently favour 52-48 No to Yes in Scotland, however the movement is to YES as it stands, and the hoolie of the election looming could drastically shift that prognosis. If yes can capture a meme that takes off (aside from the obvious) they can carry it. No have about a month to regroup or they will be solely reliant on status quo voting, which will effectively lock them out of persuasive ability (they are getting close to that already)
As for the GE, result range would appear to lie between Lab Maj < 20 and Tory largest party. I would rule out a Tory majority on the basis of the stubborn Labour vote and UKIP relative strength (assuming a full Scottish compliment of MPs). It' seems more and more probable that the result will come down to the resilience of UKIPs new support denting the Tories versus a Liberal recovery harming Labour and the greater impact of these tipping the result either way. Neither Labour nor the Tories are polling like they would were there a certain clamour for change in the air - Tories are avoiding the twenties blues of their last term or Labours 05-10 parliament, Labour are not surging and are leaning on the Red Liberal crutch. Of course, if the Lib vote does disintegrate, a 60s style result is possible, one of the parties in opposition with 290 MPs or so. Today I'd place it Lab largest party, 20 shy, 20 ahead of the Tories and a messy period of negotiation required.
Euros - who cares? UKIP will walk it and a few jaws will drop.0 -
I'm sure the loss of the Coop's CEO/Chairman and Gordon Brown's announcement that he is standing down next year are merely a coincidence.Easterross said:
Calling Gordon Brown, the Coop needs you to rescue them!SimonStClare said:Kamal Ahmed @bbckamal 1m
Breaking - Co-op confirms £2.5bn losses. Bank impairment £2bn. Somerfield write down £600m #coop
The Co-op's losses of £2.5bn for 2013 are the worst in the group's 150-year history. I'm sure Gordon Brown can do better ; )0 -
"Boba" - I've farmy farmed a link for you to read during your winey trip upon the offended bus.
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-03-20/could-scotlands-future-be-decided-on-the-housing-estates/
"I’ve been told of people who took themselves off the electoral register in 1991 to avoid paying the poll tax, re-registering so they can vote in September"
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Evil rightwing sites using the "sink estate" phrase -oooh they are so awful.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26254706
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/15bn-revamp-of-sink-estate-reveals-social-cleansing-plan-8482307.html
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Its definitely true that not many people are even aware that the EU Elections are taking place. They are meaningless & unimportant to the overwhelming majority of people.NickPalmer said:There's something a bit odd about Eurosceptics saying it's terrible how we are giving away vast amounts of power to the EU, and who cares about the EU elections to the Parliament that uses those powers. If people really thought the EU was deciding anything vital in their lives, they'd be keen enough to vote. I do meet quite a few people who are keen to vote, but it's nearly always on a "send them a message" basis - either "kick the Tories" or "kick the EU".
That said, people bet on all kinds of things that don't matter, like tennis and the Eurovision Song Contest and the name of a royal baby. The real problem about the Euros is that they're so hard to call. Will UKIP surge? What will differential turnout do? I think the elections are interesting and important, but I don't have a clue who's going to going to come top. By contrast, the Indyref choice is pretty clear - do we believe the current polls or the fact that they've narrowed and might narrow further?
If there were an In/Out referendum on the EU, the public would be a lot more energised to vote I think. Maybe not as much as Scottish Independence, but not far off0 -
I think you mean this one (complete with Guardian spelling mistake in the url):Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/oct/04/osborne-child-benfit-war-families0 -
Any evidence the Commonwealth games will have an impact on the Indy ref ?
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The difference is the tracker is the now, whereas my projection is for 18 Sep.CarlottaVance said:
The FT tracker has it on 46:54 - do you think the polls are out, or will the gap widen nearer the date?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection :
"Should Scotland Be An Independent Country?"
Latest Figures .. (Change From Last Month)
YES 41% (+1) .. NO 59% (-1)
Turnout Projection 81% (+2)
....................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
https://mobile.twitter.com/fhuszar/status/456102310326710272/photo/1
The polls will widen as the vote nears, especially in the last week or so when the final DK's and differential turnout voters opt for NO in larger numbers. My turnout projection has also spiked 2 points and it wouldn't surprise if the final number edged into the 83/85% band.
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Yes can certainly play it as 'see what we can do as a nation' and it will impact on national pride in Scotland. Not a game changer, but every little helps yes at the moment.TGOHF said:Any evidence the Commonwealth games will have an impact on the Indy ref ?
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Oops - I have forgotten to be particularly on topic.
I agree with Mike - I would have thought that the UKIP first place theory would have seen a bit more action.0 -
You're assuming that it passes off without a hitch. The risks are asymmetric. If something goes wrong...dyedwoolie said:
Yes can certainly play it as 'see what we can do as a nation' and it will impact on national pride in Scotland. Not a game changer, but every little helps yes at the moment.TGOHF said:Any evidence the Commonwealth games will have an impact on the Indy ref ?
Scotland's last attempt at hosting a Commonwealth games wasn't a happy experience.0 -
Yes, fair comment.antifrank said:
You're assuming that it passes off without a hitch. The risks are asymmetric. If something goes wrong...dyedwoolie said:
Yes can certainly play it as 'see what we can do as a nation' and it will impact on national pride in Scotland. Not a game changer, but every little helps yes at the moment.TGOHF said:Any evidence the Commonwealth games will have an impact on the Indy ref ?
Scotland's last attempt at hosting a Commonwealth games wasn't a happy experience.
Any chance Vanilla could not throw me out every 5 minutes?0 -
Just because you're not Scottish does not mean you can't have lived in Scotland.....BobaFett said:
You then panicked and asked whether it was a Scottish one, knowing full well that I am not Scottish.
In any case, the subject from the start was Scottish housing - where you equated 'council housing' with 'sink estates'.
As someone who grew up on a council estate in Scotland, I found that not only profoundly ignorant, but also deeply offensive to the many fine people who were my neighbours.
So far you have defended a Balls speech you had neither heard nor read, only to have it described in a national newspaper as 'thin defensive and selective' and accused another poster of sailing under false colours......apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how's it going?
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I'm offended by the domination of the 100m by black men, and the excessive coverage given to Usain Bolt, Carl Lewis, Linford Christie etcCharles said:
Under 1% of poetry books published in the UK are by black or Asian poets... this is quite simply not fairantifrank said:
You mean this one?Sean_F said:
My favourite was anti frank's discovery of an article lamenting a cut in funding for ethnic minority poets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, and Mr. Richard, have we not already heard something similar?
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/22/poetry-jeremy-hunt-ethnic-imbalance
And there was me thinking the criteria for whether something should be published was whether it was any good or not
I should book myself in for reprogramming.
So what if only one white bloke has ever broken 10 seconds? He should get as much media attention as the rest put together to encourage slow white kids to emulate him...
Oh boo hoo why its all so unfair0 -
Martin Kettle on SIndy Ref:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/16/scottish-referendum-woefully-unprepared-yes-vote-impact
If Scotland votes yes, the consequences could be messier and nastier for longer than most of us have allowed ourselves to consider. That is partly because there is a conspiracy of decorum surrounding the referendum campaign. The no campaign doesn't want to attack the nationalists too hard because that plays to the nationalist message of bullying and victimhood. But the yes campaign is equally bland about pretending that every problem triggered by independence will be sorted pragmatically, amicably and quickly.
I think this is misleading at almost every level. If a yes victory is declared, how will the British Labour party, meeting for its party conference on the following day in Manchester, react? By promptly agreeing to expedite Scotland's departure? Dream on. A yes vote would explode into the UK party conference season. All the main parties would be destabilised in major ways.0 -
Pretty much agree with that. Ironically since the No campaign has depended so much on the MSM to carry them, the media narrative juggernaut that Bettertogether is crap has gained some momentum.dyedwoolie said:
I currently favour 52-48 No to Yes in Scotland, however the movement is to YES as it stands, and the hoolie of the election looming could drastically shift that prognosis. If yes can capture a meme that takes off (aside from the obvious) they can carry it. No have about a month to regroup or they will be solely reliant on status quo voting, which will effectively lock them out of persuasive ability (they are getting close to that already)
BT have started their billboard campaign - 'More powers for Scotland, guaranteed'. I think that may come back to bite them.
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From one of the comments in one of the previous threads, it would appear that Rod crosby seems to think that there is a 5% threshold (or "barrage" as he calls it) for parties to win seats in the European elections.
There is no such threshold. There is a 5% threshold for the elections to the greater london Assembly, but not for the European Parliament or the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or anything else.0 -
@CarlottaVance I hadn't appreciated that the Labour conference starts the day after the independence referendum. Either the conference is going to be overwhelmed by the fall-out of a Yes vote (bad news for a party seeking to make an impact in the last conference round before the general election) or Labour are going to take the free opportunity to own a No vote (which would be shameless given the lack of campaigning by most Scottish Labour figures so far, but that's politics). Either way, it's going to have an impact on UK-wide polls.0
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Oops, I also forgot to give Morris a
after my guardian comment. 0 -
Peter Franklin's entertaining - and to my view, insightful, views on the tribes of British politics - today its the Tory's turn:
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/04/the-ruling-tribes-of-british-politics-day-4-the-cameroons-and-the-borisites.html0 -
Here's an example, in The Herald that notorious nationalist rag.....:Theuniondivvie said:
Ironically since the No campaign has depended so much on the MSM to carry them, the media narrative juggernaut that Bettertogether is crap has gained some momentum.dyedwoolie said:
I currently favour 52-48 No to Yes in Scotland, however the movement is to YES as it stands, and the hoolie of the election looming could drastically shift that prognosis. If yes can capture a meme that takes off (aside from the obvious) they can carry it. No have about a month to regroup or they will be solely reliant on status quo voting, which will effectively lock them out of persuasive ability (they are getting close to that already)
A well-calibrated pro-Union battle plan that was blown clean out of the water
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/a-well-calibrated-pro-union-battle-plan-that-was-blown-clean-out-of-the-wat.23986439
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The difference in currently held council seats up for election doesn't seem to favour Labour that much.david_herdson said:
If there's a very low turnout, it'd probably favour Labour rather than the Tories, though it'd favour UKIP most of all.Easterross said:Morning all, I am sure if you stopped 50 people on any major town High Street, 49 of them would not realise there are Euro elections 5 weeks today. The few who would know would tell you they are not as important as local council elections and they don't feature with most.
Is it possible the Euro turnout could be even lower than in 2009? If so I suspect that would be great news for UKIP, good news for the Tories and very bad news for Labour.
Most of the council elections this year - where turnout should be relatively higher - are in Labour-friendly urban areas, whereas in 2009 the local elections were in the more Tory-friendly shire counties. The local election turnout should be roughly the same whether or not the Euros are simultaneous so the swing factor is how the rest of the country turns out (though the effect will vary from region to region, depending on the proportions within them that have locals, or don't).
Con 1,535 , Lab 1,763 , LD 691
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/may-2014-council-election-page.html
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