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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair figures show that Scotland totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros
The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the September 18th referendum in Scotland when the nation’s future will be decided.
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Do we know this? Or could it be that its a simple binary bet attractive to punters across the UK?
You still also appear to be labouring under the delusion that the import of Falkirk lies in voting intention polls in rUK, not in SLAB's woeful SIndy ref performance,.....
Why not regale us instead with your extensive experience of council estates?
Britain's Co-operative Group will report a loss of more than 2 billion pounds on Thursday, laying bare the full damage done by disastrous acquisitions, a drugs scandal and an exodus of executives that have put its future as a mutual into doubt.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/cooperativegroup-results-idINL6N0N83H820140416
2 hours 3 minutes 4 seconds
Also the voting and seat allocation is fiendishly complicated.
And I'm buggered if I can find shadsy's market on Lib Dem MEPs despite my best efforts, so I can't increase the betting spend on this even though I want to.
Is it possible the Euro turnout could be even lower than in 2009? If so I suspect that would be great news for UKIP, good news for the Tories and very bad news for Labour.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-blue-corner-how-do-conservatives.html
£278K on Indy Ref vs £251K GE most votes vs £156K GE majority in no way, shape, or form, "totally dominates" current political betting
Meanwhile has the Coop called in Labour's overdraft yet and stopped funding Labour MPs?
The Daily Mirror is in hot water over today's poster-style front page image showing a little girl crying to illustrate a campaign about poverty in Britain.
But the girl is not British. It was taken years ago. And she is not weeping because she is poor. In fact, she is American, the daughter of a photographer, and was upset by an earthworm.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/apr/16/daily-mirror-news-photography
http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/European-Parliament-Elections/2014-UK-Euro-Parliamentary-Elections/Politics-N-1z140x5Z1z140wwZ1z141ne/
Wonder if the Coop will call in Gordon Brown and Ed Balls to save the group. After all they saved the world economy didn't they!
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4065288.ece
The Ukip and SNP leaders come from different political traditions but they share more than they’ll ever admit
When Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage look at each other, what do they see? Opposites? That’s certainly what their supporters claim. Mr Farage’s anti-Europeanism is decried as right-wing by the supporters of Scottish independence. Mr Farage, for his part, sees the Yes campaigners as vandals wanting to break up a valuable union.
Farage is shorthand here for those in the UK, including around a third of Tories. who want separation from the EU — or Brexit as it’s known. Salmond is a figurehead for those in Scotland who want separation from the UK — or Sexit as it isn’t known, but should
At the risk of simply repeating anecdotes I have had dozens of different conversations about the Indy referendum which has certainly got the attention of Scots in a major way. In contrast the only time I discuss the Euros is on here.
The No campaign will be due another major fiscal boost from Nick when the percentage voting falls yet again. IIRC there is £10 at stake.
The Indy referendum is of far more direct importance and relevance to far more people and much easier to understand :
You put your NO hand IN,
You put your YES hand OUT,
You put both hands up,
And you shake them all about,
You do the Eckey Feck-em
And you turn yourself around
That what it's all about ....
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Oh .... it's either IN or OUT
Turnout Turnout .... Shake it all about !!
I lived on a council estate for seven years.
The Euro elections are protest vote flim-flam with essentially zero impact on people's lives in thre real world. You can happily vote MRLP and it wouldn't matter a jot (no offensive intended JohnLoony - your lot are more coherent than the LibDems!).
Was it in Scotland?
Social housing has a very different history and demographic in Scotland than in England.
What's your prognosis for Fett's Four? PBers will remember that these are the seats that I challenge those who forecast Tory Most Seats at GE2015.
Dewsbury, Northampton North, Hove, Stroud.
@JackW (aka Stuart Truth) has yet to answer my question...
To resume our conversation of a few days ago:
You are correct in emphasising the importance of the UK workforce adding value but I suspect you think this can be mostly achieved at the top end ** .
The top 10% or even the top 20% are unable to add enough value to support the economy as a whole and to keep the rest of the population in the style to which they've become accustomed.
And even if they could they would be disinclined to remain here if it meant paying the necessary taxes to subsidise the wealth consumption of the majority of the population. In a globalised world such high value adders would be able to move to countries with lower taxes or higher living standards or better weather.
We need therefore to rebalance the economy so that people throughout the economic scale can add value.
** This seems to be a common belief among people at the top end of the economic scale and is based on the view of "I'm successful, I'm important, people like me are the future, the government should support people like me".
It's never too early for a romp through the archives.
I'm unsurprised by this. The referendum is a thousand times more important than the European elections.
With an election, the result is always that a certain number of people are chosen for political office. They might differ a little, or a lot, but the only question is over who gets the job.
The referendum is inherently more important because it will determine the future of the whole United Kingdom (or lack thereof).
Another car crash beckons!
A system which for a given distribution of votes gives a precise and instantly calculable distribution of seats? Fiendishly complicated?
I'd love to hear your characterization of FPTP...
I'm not giving too much away by saying that the YES camp numbers will be slightly better than those of the Co-op !!
You made a reference to 'old fashioned metal bashing' or suchlike.
That seems to be an echo of the economic problems and solutions of the 1970s but needs changing as the economy has changed since that period.
There are very few low value adding workers remaining in the wealth creating sectors and those that do - food processing and tourism for example - are tied by location to this country.
Where the low value adding workers are is in the wealth consuming sectors.
And this is where the big change to the economy and the government attitude to it has happened since the 1970s.
In the 1970s the government subsidised inefficient low value adding wealth creation in the nationalised industries. The result was huge coal stockpiles and cars which couldn't be sold.
Now the government subsidises wealth consumption through borrowing money and distributing it through higher pay and benefits (and in some cases lower taxes) than would otherwise be the case.
This is electorally beneficial to governments as there are millions of beneficiaries both with the wealth consumers spending more money and the suppliers to them receiving more money.
In the 1970s the government subsidies were concentrated in a much smaller proportion of the population concentrated in the old industrial areas.
This also helps explain the trends in unemployment, productivity and wages.
After the 1970s subsidies to the old nationalised industries were phased out and they either became profitable or shut down. The consequence was the parts which were least efficient shut down causing higher unemployment but also overall higher productivity and consequently higher wages.
Now though the government has continued to subsidise wealth consumption and without the resulting spur to higher efficiency unemployment has remained lower and productivity performance has been so dismal with poor wages growth the inevitable consequence.
But I wouldn't regard that as quite right either!
That said, people bet on all kinds of things that don't matter, like tennis and the Eurovision Song Contest and the name of a royal baby. The real problem about the Euros is that they're so hard to call. Will UKIP surge? What will differential turnout do? I think the elections are interesting and important, but I don't have a clue who's going to going to come top. By contrast, the Indyref choice is pretty clear - do we believe the current polls or the fact that they've narrowed and might narrow further?
This government subsidised extra wealth consumption lies at the heart of many aspects of the economy - the perpetual trade deficit, the rise in the national debt, the increase in economic migrants.
Its also a thing which is going to be very difficult to break.
We live in a society of rights and entitlements, once people reach a level of wealth consumption they believe they have an entitlement to it, And with conspicuous consumption glorified in the media there is continual demand for ever higher wealth consumption. With governments being held responsible for ultimately providing it.
I also have a theory, based on Maslow, that as wealth consumption becomes ever more intense newer, more psychological forms, will be needed by those higher on the sociodemographic scale in order to differentiate themselves from the average person.
For example I don't think it will be long before the upper middle classes believe they have an 'entitlement' to cleaners and gardeners as a measure of their status.
You suspect wrong! The top end is clearly important, and adds the most value per head, but an economy that is entirely dependent on a small number of people is going to be vulnerable to external shocks, potentially unbalanced/unstable politically and will fail to provide an acceptable standard of living to the great mass of people.
My view is that low-valued added manufacturing ("metal bashing") is not a space that we should be seeking to grow. However, there are very significant areas of manufacturing which are higher skilled and sticky businesses that are worth investing in. Examples include those where quality (e.g. medical) or precision (high spec engineering) of which have high levels of capital investment where a good education is necessary to optimise the return on investment (e.g. car manufacturing). These are segments that are sticky, have sufficient value added that justify a decent income for the employees and - critically - are less exposed to wage competition
Of course, if your party hadn't reneged on a referendum manifesto commitment we would've had a vote by now.
I read the transcript you charitably copied and pasted from a newspaper we could read ourselves.
I saw some self-important interviewer interrupt Ed Balls every few seconds when Balls was trying to give an answer.
It was brill.
He's banned himself!!!
20 minutes 20 seconds
For example I don't think it will be long before the upper middle classes believe they have an 'entitlement' to cleaners and gardeners as a measure of their status"
Agreed.
I recall, vaguely, a Guardian journalist who wrote an article bemoaning Coalition cuts which would see him (think it was a chap) unable to afford violin lessons for one of his offspring.
It provoked a fair bit of mirth here.
Last nights YouGov quite interesting, Labour out of its new 35-38 box for the first time in a while - will it hold or is it a high end outlier? 39 is a good base for them to build a win from (largest party). Tory vote is grounded on avg 33 with YouGov, although it's unlikely to move far before the conference season and election run in that follows. They are effectively on core or slightly above, coiled and ready to pounce ;-)
When I was growing up it was predominantly C1C2 with a few Bs thrown in for good measure. There were DEs - but they, according to the uncharitable, ended up in the tenement flats....
Most of the council elections this year - where turnout should be relatively higher - are in Labour-friendly urban areas, whereas in 2009 the local elections were in the more Tory-friendly shire counties. The local election turnout should be roughly the same whether or not the Euros are simultaneous so the swing factor is how the rest of the country turns out (though the effect will vary from region to region, depending on the proportions within them that have locals, or don't).
Kindly desist.
Who to believe, who to believe?
I wasn't seriously suggesting you actually were Stuart Truth, as I am sure you know.
Don't get Arsey with me.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection :
"Should Scotland Be An Independent Country?"
Latest Figures .. (Change From Last Month)
YES 41% (+1) .. NO 59% (-1)
Turnout Projection 81% (+2)
....................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Breaking - Co-op confirms £2.5bn losses. Bank impairment £2bn. Somerfield write down £600m #coop
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/22/poetry-jeremy-hunt-ethnic-imbalance
I didn't like his "trawling the sink estates" line, which was misanthropic. That's why I challenged him.
You then implied I had no knowledge of council estates.
I then informed you that I had lived on one for seven years.
You then panicked and asked whether it was a Scottish one, knowing full well that I am not Scottish.
Best, I think, to leave it there.
You can have the last word if you like - for the sake of the thread I shall not reply on this topic anymore.
Further as a poster who regularly gives betting advice I deprecate the implication that I am a poster such as "Stuart Truth" who misled the site and gave patently false information before disappearing once he was found out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/fhuszar/status/456102310326710272/photo/1
And there was me thinking the criteria for whether something should be published was whether it was any good or not
I should book myself in for reprogramming.
I currently favour 52-48 No to Yes in Scotland, however the movement is to YES as it stands, and the hoolie of the election looming could drastically shift that prognosis. If yes can capture a meme that takes off (aside from the obvious) they can carry it. No have about a month to regroup or they will be solely reliant on status quo voting, which will effectively lock them out of persuasive ability (they are getting close to that already)
As for the GE, result range would appear to lie between Lab Maj < 20 and Tory largest party. I would rule out a Tory majority on the basis of the stubborn Labour vote and UKIP relative strength (assuming a full Scottish compliment of MPs). It' seems more and more probable that the result will come down to the resilience of UKIPs new support denting the Tories versus a Liberal recovery harming Labour and the greater impact of these tipping the result either way. Neither Labour nor the Tories are polling like they would were there a certain clamour for change in the air - Tories are avoiding the twenties blues of their last term or Labours 05-10 parliament, Labour are not surging and are leaning on the Red Liberal crutch. Of course, if the Lib vote does disintegrate, a 60s style result is possible, one of the parties in opposition with 290 MPs or so. Today I'd place it Lab largest party, 20 shy, 20 ahead of the Tories and a messy period of negotiation required.
Euros - who cares? UKIP will walk it and a few jaws will drop.
The Co-op's losses of £2.5bn for 2013 are the worst in the group's 150-year history. I'm sure Gordon Brown can do better ; )
http://www.itv.com/news/2014-03-20/could-scotlands-future-be-decided-on-the-housing-estates/
"I’ve been told of people who took themselves off the electoral register in 1991 to avoid paying the poll tax, re-registering so they can vote in September"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26254706
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/15bn-revamp-of-sink-estate-reveals-social-cleansing-plan-8482307.html
If there were an In/Out referendum on the EU, the public would be a lot more energised to vote I think. Maybe not as much as Scottish Independence, but not far off
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/oct/04/osborne-child-benfit-war-families
The polls will widen as the vote nears, especially in the last week or so when the final DK's and differential turnout voters opt for NO in larger numbers. My turnout projection has also spiked 2 points and it wouldn't surprise if the final number edged into the 83/85% band.
I agree with Mike - I would have thought that the UKIP first place theory would have seen a bit more action.
Scotland's last attempt at hosting a Commonwealth games wasn't a happy experience.
Any chance Vanilla could not throw me out every 5 minutes?
In any case, the subject from the start was Scottish housing - where you equated 'council housing' with 'sink estates'.
As someone who grew up on a council estate in Scotland, I found that not only profoundly ignorant, but also deeply offensive to the many fine people who were my neighbours.
So far you have defended a Balls speech you had neither heard nor read, only to have it described in a national newspaper as 'thin defensive and selective' and accused another poster of sailing under false colours......apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how's it going?
So what if only one white bloke has ever broken 10 seconds? He should get as much media attention as the rest put together to encourage slow white kids to emulate him...
Oh boo hoo why its all so unfair
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/16/scottish-referendum-woefully-unprepared-yes-vote-impact
If Scotland votes yes, the consequences could be messier and nastier for longer than most of us have allowed ourselves to consider. That is partly because there is a conspiracy of decorum surrounding the referendum campaign. The no campaign doesn't want to attack the nationalists too hard because that plays to the nationalist message of bullying and victimhood. But the yes campaign is equally bland about pretending that every problem triggered by independence will be sorted pragmatically, amicably and quickly.
I think this is misleading at almost every level. If a yes victory is declared, how will the British Labour party, meeting for its party conference on the following day in Manchester, react? By promptly agreeing to expedite Scotland's departure? Dream on. A yes vote would explode into the UK party conference season. All the main parties would be destabilised in major ways.
BT have started their billboard campaign - 'More powers for Scotland, guaranteed'. I think that may come back to bite them.
There is no such threshold. There is a 5% threshold for the elections to the greater london Assembly, but not for the European Parliament or the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly or anything else.
http://www.conservativehome.com/the-deep-end/2014/04/the-ruling-tribes-of-british-politics-day-4-the-cameroons-and-the-borisites.html
A well-calibrated pro-Union battle plan that was blown clean out of the water
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/a-well-calibrated-pro-union-battle-plan-that-was-blown-clean-out-of-the-wat.23986439
Con 1,535 , Lab 1,763 , LD 691
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/may-2014-council-election-page.html