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Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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Could make the north east interesting !Mysticrose said:Righty-ho, my last comment on the weather for now (promise). Here again are the projected lying snow depths:
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
My friends are almost all on the left, family on the right, other half and her family on the left, work colleagues on the right.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.0 -
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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Yep in Monday's icmCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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Yep. By this point in 2017 they'd had:CorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
35 x 3
36 x 2
37 x 1
38 x 1
39 x 1
Data courtesy of RobD's wonderful graph.0 -
Nunes is perhaps the most stupid guy in Congress. Though there is considerable competition.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/impeachment-investigators-got-rudys-phone-recordsand-theyre-quite-revealing?ref=scroll
...Nunes in particular has sought to undermine the investigation by alleging that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Intelligence Committee chairman, had coordinated or otherwise communicated with an intelligence community whistleblower who initially raised concerns about Trump’s apparent efforts to pressure Ukraine into investigating his political foes. But the phone records contained in the committee’s report show that Nunes himself had engaged in his own behind-the-scenes communications with the very people at issue in the whistleblower complaint. Nunes never revealed those communications during the weeks of committee testimony. The congressman has discussed the possibility of suing news outlets, including The Daily Beast, for reporting on his private handling of matters related to Trump’s actions in Ukraine...0 -
In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....0
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Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.numbertwelve said:In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
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Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?0
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This place weirdly has an intelligence bypass when it comes to weather chat. There are never any guarantees when it comes to the British weather, but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.
Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.0 -
Great analysis.egg said:
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.
The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,0 -
According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.
What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.
Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days
https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/0 -
This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and orangesChris_A said:
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price0 -
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.camel said:
Great analysis.egg said:
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.
The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
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Looks like the polling has really leveled off now. Labour's gains are petering out as I predicted.
Still think there is likely to be a late final swing to Con which the polls may or may not pick up from Saturday through to the Eve Of Poll polls.0 -
They started their social media blitz this week apparently.Time_to_Leave said:
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.camel said:
Great analysis.egg said:
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.
The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?0 -
Checked it out earlier. Coverage looked fairly basic. Presume they are hoping the comprehensiveness of their coverage (Match Choice) will counterbalance the primitive presentation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume you pay monthly but I pay yearlyJBriskinindyref2 said:
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???kle4 said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Prizes for all...literally...
All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/dec/03/turner-prize-2019-lawrence-abu-hamdan-helen-cammock-oscar-murillo-and-tai-shani-shared0 -
That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They started their social media blitz this week apparently.Time_to_Leave said:
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.camel said:
Great analysis.egg said:
But the Tories have haddestroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.
The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
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My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.0 -
I believe they can still target you based on your likes, etc. but I am surprised you can't block these ads (?). I haven't had a look in a while.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.0 -
I saw that article - the strategy is either genius or idiocy, with the final result probably obscuring which one was in fact the case.FrancisUrquhart said:According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.
What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.
Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days
https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/0 -
When MRP came out last week I'm sure it was stated it would be updated only once - in 2 weeks time, just before polling day.
Yet ever since, there have been endless posts saying it will be updated this week. I get the impression it's everyone just repeating what they heard someone else (wrongly) say.
Can anyone confirm?0 -
Can you get an adblock for paper versions ;-)2
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Yes, you couldn’t accuse them of herding in 2017...CorrectHorseBattery said:
Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.numbertwelve said:In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
There’s still a fair bit of divergence this time, though it feels a bit less. Think it’s very hard to call again, I could see anything from 2017 mk II to majority of around 50. I think any more is a huge ask and I don’t see landslide figures...
On the other hand, I don’t see anything other than Tories comfortably largest party.
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Con Majority.CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
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if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
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Twitter not FB (the use of which I limit) so you might be right. Interactions on there. Which is odd because it’s mostly cricket, football, and science. The bastards.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I believe they can still target you based on your likes, etc. but I am surprised you can't block these ads (?). I haven't had a look in a while.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.
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I asked earlier - does anyone know when we'll get the official electorate figure?
This is the figure which will be the proof of the pudding re all those reports re applications to register.
But in typical journalistic fashion, nobody bothers to follow it up!0 -
Very good point. Must be a known fact by now. I bet the EC are waiting until they’ve all placed their turnout bets....MikeL said:I asked earlier - does anyone know when we'll get the official electorate figure?
This is the figure which will be the proof of the pudding re all those reports re applications to register.
But in typical journalistic fashion, nobody bothers to follow it up!
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They should share it with the long list, indeed all the artists who were nominated to the committee by at least one person.FrancisUrquhart said:Prizes for all...literally...
All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/dec/03/turner-prize-2019-lawrence-abu-hamdan-helen-cammock-oscar-murillo-and-tai-shani-shared0 -
Not sure Raabs comments did much to help Johnson today and they feature on the front of the I newspaper tomorrow .
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I don't think they necessarily link do they? The HP prediction from it last election wasn't what their poll was showing at the time, from what I recall.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!0 -
It's a weird place to be this, potentially MOE away from a Hung Parliament or a landslide. Bizarre.0
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I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!0 -
I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!0 -
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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Invoice is in the post.BluerBlue said:
Yep. By this point in 2017 they'd had:CorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
35 x 3
36 x 2
37 x 1
38 x 1
39 x 1
Data courtesy of RobD's wonderful graph.0 -
Betfair on the move in again.0
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Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance0 -
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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All my friends and family are on the left (Tory grandparents sadly no longer with us). All my work colleagues are Tories. Work Christmas party on Friday 13th will almost certainly be pretty grim...Cookie said:
My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.0 -
BONG.
.... oops, nine days early.1 -
I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.MaxPB said:
I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.
The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.
* My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.0 -
A terrier helps.FrancisUrquhart said:Can you get an adblock for paper versions ;-)
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The Greens?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.0
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Can you imagine PB if the last MRP has con majority of 100?rcs1000 said:
I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.MaxPB said:
I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.
The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.
* My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
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Yougov MRP had IDS 9% ahead in Chingford, the Tories 11% ahead nationally, so it is now an ultra marginal seat, indeed if anything fractionally more Labour than nationallyegg said:
I think even HY is sceptical now about Chingford. Tebbits old seat.Mexicanpete said:
You met IDS?KentRising said:Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
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That makes two of us but have been surprised by the numbers of my NHS colleagues who have indicated they are trending Boris.Cookie said:
My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.0 -
Hmmm. That’s a very linear relationship.nunu2 said:
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The LDs in this seat.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Greens?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
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What's your take on Chingford, HY?HYUFD said:Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance0 -
I'll take CON maj 2!Pulpstar said:
I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.Ave_it said:
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
We can always do a deal with SuperJo - or maybe SuperLayla - if we need to after the election!
0 -
Indeed.Anabobazina said:but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.
Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.
Very odd reactions from some people on a site which is usually an intelligent place, even when I don't agree with people.
I think people aren't at their best at the moment. The slightest comment is jumped upon, sometimes by a pack. The partisan tends to triumph over the content, which may be nuanced and subtle but is lost at the moment. Everyone is seeing things through the outcome they want to happen, and this then becomes their expectation of what WILL happen. Thus an innocent question about what might happen in extreme weather it taken as a Labour agenda for bad losers
I'm pretty chilled about the whole thing, but then I'm flying off on Election night to somewhere rather lovely. The election will come and go. We can't control what is 'out there' but we can control how we react to it.0 -
St Ives is more Remain-y than most of the South East (and the Scilly Isles were v. pro-EU), so their Bollocks to Brexit crap has done them less harm there than in other areas. I understand the Conservative MP has had a few issues too.FrancisUrquhart said:
Still, even though Andrew George is a doughty campaigner, and the LDs are nationally up on 2017, I think they'll struggle to take it. I'm currently expecting it to be a narrow Conservative hold (1-2,000 majority).0 -
Wasn't it out at 10pm last time?CorrectHorseBattery said:I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.
0 -
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more likeCorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
0 -
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per monthCharles said:
This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and orangesChris_A said:
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price0 -
Most rich people get rich by...felix said:
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.Benpointer said:
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.Luckyguy1983 said:
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.Sandpit said:
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.MaxPB said:
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.Benpointer said:
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?MaxPB said:
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.Benpointer said:O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study
...having rich parents.0 -
I predict one 60-80CorrectHorseBattery said:I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.
0 -
Need some help with that chip on your shoulder?Benpointer said:
Most rich people get rich by...felix said:
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.Benpointer said:
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.Luckyguy1983 said:
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.Sandpit said:
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.MaxPB said:
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.Benpointer said:
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?MaxPB said:
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.Benpointer said:O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study
...having rich parents.0 -
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?NorthCadboll said:
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per monthCharles said:
This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and orangesChris_A said:
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price0 -
Should be a Tory hold, just but Momentum are flooding itPeterC said:
What's your take on Chingford, HY?HYUFD said:Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance0 -
If that works out and Tories do sweep Midlands and North, I guess we have to kneel at the alter of the genius of Dom again?nunu2 said:0 -
Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.0 -
If I am honest with you, neither side deserves a majority, especially not Labour. I would like to have a Government which over 50% of the population has voted for, so for that reason I hope - ideally - for some kind of rainbow Government.humbugger said:Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
Maybe then we will get some kind of voting reform.2 -
we know that the lib dem’s are comfortable with fraud. did someone say michael brown?MarqueeMark said:
That data sale is going to prove troublesome for the LibDems. I mean, if you have to forge documents to obscure that it happened.....CarlottaVance said:
Mail have it too:Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752019/Lib-Dem-press-chief-suspended-fake-email-row-website-voter-data-sale-claim.html0 -
Why are you so team Tory? Is it religious belief or a need to protect wealth I struggle to understand the obsessionAve_it said:
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?NorthCadboll said:
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per monthCharles said:
This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and orangesChris_A said:
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price0 -
Hope is what I am voting for, that is what I think it is and nothing you or anyone else says will change that. All the very best.Floater said:
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more likeCorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
0 -
It will show a bigger Tory majority because Labour are going up in the south and London bit down in the north and Midlands.CorrectHorseBattery said:Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
0 -
Sadly I don't think so. Current feeling is we could deprive Liberals from holdingAve_it said:
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?NorthCadboll said:
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per monthCharles said:
This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and orangesChris_A said:
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price0 -
0
-
No new Labour bribe this evening?0
-
Dear Heavens.......Benpointer said:
Most rich people get rich by...felix said:
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.Benpointer said:
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.Luckyguy1983 said:
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.Sandpit said:
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.MaxPB said:
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.Benpointer said:
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?MaxPB said:
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.Benpointer said:O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study
...having rich parents.0 -
Let’s fuck ourselves and you vote Tory and I’ll vote labour?Harris_Tweed said:The comments on this tho’
https://twitter.com/hannahalothman/status/1201981644149809153?s=211 -
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.Floater said:
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more likeCorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
0 -
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.humbugger said:Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.0 -
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.humbugger said:Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.0 -
i’ve just lost a piece of business to goldman sachs because they were willing to do it for nothing and i wasn’t.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is if you are in Amazon Prime. You seem to have a problem with AmazonJBriskinindyref2 said:
Not free thenBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
my boss pointed out the difference between zero marginal cost and free...0 -
You won’t stop it on here the real world is out there on the doorstepCorrectHorseBattery said:
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.humbugger said:Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.0 -
This thread has now Quit the Race.0
-
It's the hope that gets you though. I've learned not to expect anything good to happen in UK politics, it's easier that way.CorrectHorseBattery said:
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.humbugger said:Good evening all.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.0 -
Things I wish I could bet on but I doubt would be allowed;
1) Student debt being cancelled being the next Labour throw of the dice.
2) If Johnson gets any kind of working majority there being some small riots around Downing street by Labour supporters, same as last time.0 -
My model spits out the following:
Con 374 42
Lab 205 32.7
LD 3 12.3
SNP & Plaid 49 4.8
It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though -
#1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker
#2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.
The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.0 -
This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?kyf_100 said:
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.Floater said:
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more likeCorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.0 -
The story about Corbyn's pin-striped suit (on Guido, I know I know) is reminiscent of Harold Wilson and the Gannex raincoat. The owner of the Gannex manufacturer was Joseph (Lord) Kagan while Jeremy's suit is made by a company owned by an Imran Khan (not the Imran Khan presumably). Perhaps ermine awaits the Mr Khan likewise.0
-
I think age rather than class is the biggest divide. Wasn't there a stat recently about how "millennials" only own 3% of the wealth by age 35 whereas baby boomers owned 12% at the same age.initforthemoney said:
This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?kyf_100 said:
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.Floater said:
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more likeCorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm voting for hopeFloater said:
Another day another "hope"CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.Ave_it said:
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36sCorrectHorseBattery said:Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
0 -
Dr Wollaston was on LBC with Ian Dale this evening and the video currently has 25 "Thumbs Up" Vs 242 "Tumbs Down"
Not sure she's exactly endeared herself to LBC listeners...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GSeHUd1c5Y0 -
That would be lovely, but I cant see labour having their lowest number of seats since 1935.Pulpstar said:My model spits out the following:
Con 374 42
Lab 205 32.7
LD 3 12.3
SNP & Plaid 49 4.8
It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though -
#1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker
#2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.
The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.
I think Labour will get around 260-2700
