The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
My friends are almost all on the left, family on the right, other half and her family on the left, work colleagues on the right.
Nunes is perhaps the most stupid guy in Congress. Though there is considerable competition.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/impeachment-investigators-got-rudys-phone-recordsand-theyre-quite-revealing?ref=scroll ...Nunes in particular has sought to undermine the investigation by alleging that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Intelligence Committee chairman, had coordinated or otherwise communicated with an intelligence community whistleblower who initially raised concerns about Trump’s apparent efforts to pressure Ukraine into investigating his political foes. But the phone records contained in the committee’s report show that Nunes himself had engaged in his own behind-the-scenes communications with the very people at issue in the whistleblower complaint. Nunes never revealed those communications during the weeks of committee testimony. The congressman has discussed the possibility of suing news outlets, including The Daily Beast, for reporting on his private handling of matters related to Trump’s actions in Ukraine...
In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.
This place weirdly has an intelligence bypass when it comes to weather chat. There are never any guarantees when it comes to the British weather, but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.
Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now. Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
Great analysis. The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.
What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.
Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now. Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
Great analysis. The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now. Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
Great analysis. The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
They started their social media blitz this week apparently. May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???
I assume you pay monthly but I pay yearly
Checked it out earlier. Coverage looked fairly basic. Presume they are hoping the comprehensiveness of their coverage (Match Choice) will counterbalance the primitive presentation.
All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have haddestroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
Great analysis. The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
They started their social media blitz this week apparently. May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.
According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.
What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.
Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days
When MRP came out last week I'm sure it was stated it would be updated only once - in 2 weeks time, just before polling day.
Yet ever since, there have been endless posts saying it will be updated this week. I get the impression it's everyone just repeating what they heard someone else (wrongly) say.
In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.
Yes, you couldn’t accuse them of herding in 2017...
There’s still a fair bit of divergence this time, though it feels a bit less. Think it’s very hard to call again, I could see anything from 2017 mk II to majority of around 50. I think any more is a huge ask and I don’t see landslide figures...
On the other hand, I don’t see anything other than Tories comfortably largest party.
I believe they can still target you based on your likes, etc. but I am surprised you can't block these ads (?). I haven't had a look in a while.
Twitter not FB (the use of which I limit) so you might be right. Interactions on there. Which is odd because it’s mostly cricket, football, and science. The bastards.
All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.
Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40 All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
I don't think they necessarily link do they? The HP prediction from it last election wasn't what their poll was showing at the time, from what I recall.
Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40 All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.
Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.
All my friends and family are on the left (Tory grandparents sadly no longer with us). All my work colleagues are Tories. Work Christmas party on Friday 13th will almost certainly be pretty grim...
Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40 All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.
I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.
The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.
The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.
* My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40 All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.
I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.
The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.
The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.
* My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
Can you imagine PB if the last MRP has con majority of 100?
Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
You met IDS?
I think even HY is sceptical now about Chingford. Tebbits old seat.
Yougov MRP had IDS 9% ahead in Chingford, the Tories 11% ahead nationally, so it is now an ultra marginal seat, indeed if anything fractionally more Labour than nationally
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.
That makes two of us but have been surprised by the numbers of my NHS colleagues who have indicated they are trending Boris.
Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance
Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40 All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.
I'll take CON maj 2!
We can always do a deal with SuperJo - or maybe SuperLayla - if we need to after the election!
but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.
Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.
Indeed.
Very odd reactions from some people on a site which is usually an intelligent place, even when I don't agree with people.
I think people aren't at their best at the moment. The slightest comment is jumped upon, sometimes by a pack. The partisan tends to triumph over the content, which may be nuanced and subtle but is lost at the moment. Everyone is seeing things through the outcome they want to happen, and this then becomes their expectation of what WILL happen. Thus an innocent question about what might happen in extreme weather it taken as a Labour agenda for bad losers
I'm pretty chilled about the whole thing, but then I'm flying off on Election night to somewhere rather lovely. The election will come and go. We can't control what is 'out there' but we can control how we react to it.
St Ives is more Remain-y than most of the South East (and the Scilly Isles were v. pro-EU), so their Bollocks to Brexit crap has done them less harm there than in other areas. I understand the Conservative MP has had a few issues too.
Still, even though Andrew George is a doughty campaigner, and the LDs are nationally up on 2017, I think they'll struggle to take it. I'm currently expecting it to be a narrow Conservative hold (1-2,000 majority).
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance
What's your take on Chingford, HY?
Should be a Tory hold, just but Momentum are flooding it
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
If I am honest with you, neither side deserves a majority, especially not Labour. I would like to have a Government which over 50% of the population has voted for, so for that reason I hope - ideally - for some kind of rainbow Government. Maybe then we will get some kind of voting reform.
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
Why are you so team Tory? Is it religious belief or a need to protect wealth I struggle to understand the obsession
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
Sadly I don't think so. Current feeling is we could deprive Liberals from holding
Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
Another day another "hope"
I'm voting for hope
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Not free then
It is if you are in Amazon Prime. You seem to have a problem with Amazon
i’ve just lost a piece of business to goldman sachs because they were willing to do it for nothing and i wasn’t.
my boss pointed out the difference between zero marginal cost and free...
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
You won’t stop it on here the real world is out there on the doorstep
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
It's the hope that gets you though. I've learned not to expect anything good to happen in UK politics, it's easier that way.
Things I wish I could bet on but I doubt would be allowed;
1) Student debt being cancelled being the next Labour throw of the dice. 2) If Johnson gets any kind of working majority there being some small riots around Downing street by Labour supporters, same as last time.
Con 374 42 Lab 205 32.7 LD 3 12.3 SNP & Plaid 49 4.8
It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though - #1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker #2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.
The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.
Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
Another day another "hope"
I'm voting for hope
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?
The story about Corbyn's pin-striped suit (on Guido, I know I know) is reminiscent of Harold Wilson and the Gannex raincoat. The owner of the Gannex manufacturer was Joseph (Lord) Kagan while Jeremy's suit is made by a company owned by an Imran Khan (not the Imran Khan presumably). Perhaps ermine awaits the Mr Khan likewise.
Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?
Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
Another day another "hope"
I'm voting for hope
Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?
I think age rather than class is the biggest divide. Wasn't there a stat recently about how "millennials" only own 3% of the wealth by age 35 whereas baby boomers owned 12% at the same age.
Con 374 42 Lab 205 32.7 LD 3 12.3 SNP & Plaid 49 4.8
It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though - #1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker #2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.
The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.
That would be lovely, but I cant see labour having their lowest number of seats since 1935.
Comments
35 x 3
36 x 2
37 x 1
38 x 1
39 x 1
Data courtesy of RobD's wonderful graph.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/impeachment-investigators-got-rudys-phone-recordsand-theyre-quite-revealing?ref=scroll
...Nunes in particular has sought to undermine the investigation by alleging that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Intelligence Committee chairman, had coordinated or otherwise communicated with an intelligence community whistleblower who initially raised concerns about Trump’s apparent efforts to pressure Ukraine into investigating his political foes. But the phone records contained in the committee’s report show that Nunes himself had engaged in his own behind-the-scenes communications with the very people at issue in the whistleblower complaint. Nunes never revealed those communications during the weeks of committee testimony. The congressman has discussed the possibility of suing news outlets, including The Daily Beast, for reporting on his private handling of matters related to Trump’s actions in Ukraine...
Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.
The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.
Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days
https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/
Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.
You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
Still think there is likely to be a late final swing to Con which the polls may or may not pick up from Saturday through to the Eve Of Poll polls.
May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/dec/03/turner-prize-2019-lawrence-abu-hamdan-helen-cammock-oscar-murillo-and-tai-shani-shared
Yet ever since, there have been endless posts saying it will be updated this week. I get the impression it's everyone just repeating what they heard someone else (wrongly) say.
Can anyone confirm?
There’s still a fair bit of divergence this time, though it feels a bit less. Think it’s very hard to call again, I could see anything from 2017 mk II to majority of around 50. I think any more is a huge ask and I don’t see landslide figures...
On the other hand, I don’t see anything other than Tories comfortably largest party.
All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
This is the figure which will be the proof of the pudding re all those reports re applications to register.
But in typical journalistic fashion, nobody bothers to follow it up!
Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance
.... oops, nine days early.
The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.
The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.
* My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
We can always do a deal with SuperJo - or maybe SuperLayla - if we need to after the election!
Very odd reactions from some people on a site which is usually an intelligent place, even when I don't agree with people.
I think people aren't at their best at the moment. The slightest comment is jumped upon, sometimes by a pack. The partisan tends to triumph over the content, which may be nuanced and subtle but is lost at the moment. Everyone is seeing things through the outcome they want to happen, and this then becomes their expectation of what WILL happen. Thus an innocent question about what might happen in extreme weather it taken as a Labour agenda for bad losers
I'm pretty chilled about the whole thing, but then I'm flying off on Election night to somewhere rather lovely. The election will come and go. We can't control what is 'out there' but we can control how we react to it.
Still, even though Andrew George is a doughty campaigner, and the LDs are nationally up on 2017, I think they'll struggle to take it. I'm currently expecting it to be a narrow Conservative hold (1-2,000 majority).
...having rich parents.
Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.
On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.
Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
Maybe then we will get some kind of voting reform.
https://twitter.com/hannahalothman/status/1201981644149809153?s=21
The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.
Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.
my boss pointed out the difference between zero marginal cost and free...
1) Student debt being cancelled being the next Labour throw of the dice.
2) If Johnson gets any kind of working majority there being some small riots around Downing street by Labour supporters, same as last time.
Con 374 42
Lab 205 32.7
LD 3 12.3
SNP & Plaid 49 4.8
It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though -
#1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker
#2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.
The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.
Not sure she's exactly endeared herself to LBC listeners...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GSeHUd1c5Y
I think Labour will get around 260-270