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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    edited December 2019

    Righty-ho, my last comment on the weather for now (promise). Here again are the projected lying snow depths:

    https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg

    Could make the north east interesting !

    The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
    I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.

    Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
    No, what about you?
    The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
    My friends are almost all on the left, family on the right, other half and her family on the left, work colleagues on the right.
  • Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
  • Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yep. By this point in 2017 they'd had:

    35 x 3
    36 x 2
    37 x 1
    38 x 1
    39 x 1

    Data courtesy of RobD's wonderful graph.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yep in Monday's icm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Nunes is perhaps the most stupid guy in Congress. Though there is considerable competition.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/impeachment-investigators-got-rudys-phone-recordsand-theyre-quite-revealing?ref=scroll
    ...Nunes in particular has sought to undermine the investigation by alleging that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Intelligence Committee chairman, had coordinated or otherwise communicated with an intelligence community whistleblower who initially raised concerns about Trump’s apparent efforts to pressure Ukraine into investigating his political foes. But the phone records contained in the committee’s report show that Nunes himself had engaged in his own behind-the-scenes communications with the very people at issue in the whistleblower complaint. Nunes never revealed those communications during the weeks of committee testimony. The congressman has discussed the possibility of suing news outlets, including The Daily Beast, for reporting on his private handling of matters related to Trump’s actions in Ukraine...
  • In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....
  • In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....

    Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.
  • Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,487
    This place weirdly has an intelligence bypass when it comes to weather chat. There are never any guarantees when it comes to the British weather, but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.

    Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    egg said:

    egg said:

    Polls polls bigger polls and polling
    The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).

    If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?

    1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11

    If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
    But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.
    Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
    Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
    MRP little change.
    Great analysis.
    The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.

    What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.

    Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days

    https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris_A said:
    This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and oranges

    Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.

    You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
  • camel said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Polls polls bigger polls and polling
    The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).

    If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?

    1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11

    If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
    But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.
    Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
    Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
    MRP little change.
    Great analysis.
    The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
    You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Looks like the polling has really leveled off now. Labour's gains are petering out as I predicted.

    Still think there is likely to be a late final swing to Con which the polls may or may not pick up from Saturday through to the Eve Of Poll polls.
  • camel said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Polls polls bigger polls and polling
    The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).

    If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?

    1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11

    If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
    But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.
    Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
    Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
    MRP little change.
    Great analysis.
    The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
    You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
    They started their social media blitz this week apparently.
    May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,487

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet

    This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT

    Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
    Not a great idea to admit that John......
    Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
    I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices

    See - capitalism isn't all bad
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet

    This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT

    Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
    Not a great idea to admit that John......
    Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
    I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices

    See - capitalism isn't all bad
    Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
    Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
    Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
    Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
    I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
    You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???
    I assume you pay monthly but I pay yearly
    Checked it out earlier. Coverage looked fairly basic. Presume they are hoping the comprehensiveness of their coverage (Match Choice) will counterbalance the primitive presentation.
  • Prizes for all...literally...

    All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/dec/03/turner-prize-2019-lawrence-abu-hamdan-helen-cammock-oscar-murillo-and-tai-shani-shared
  • camel said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Polls polls bigger polls and polling
    The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).

    If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?

    1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11

    If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
    But the Tories have haddestroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
    Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
    MRP little change.
    Great analysis.
    The momentum seems to have been lost in all the parties' campaigns due to Lonfon Bridge and now Nato summit. As the LibDem campaign has been been so poor that it's been making things worse, and the tory campaign exists only in theory, this has materially and adversely affected only Labour,
    You say that, but I’m now being bombarded by the Tories on social media. Which is a waste because my constituency would stay blue if they had twenty MPs.
    They started their social media blitz this week apparently.
    May I suggest getting Adblock so they can't follow you around the Internet and get information about you?
    That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
    I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.

    Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
    No, what about you?
    The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
    Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.
    All the best.
    My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.

  • That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.

    I believe they can still target you based on your likes, etc. but I am surprised you can't block these ads (?). I haven't had a look in a while.
  • According to Whotargets.me, the parties are pouring money into online outreach. Labour is currently racking up over £30,000 of spending a day on Facebook. The Lib Dems are not far behind, spending over £20,000 daily.

    What is interesting at this juncture of the campaign, with just over a week to go, is that the Conservatives, despite trebling their online spend in the past few days, are still only racking up a daily spend of about £10,000.

    Today, according to Whotargets.me, while the Conservatives are not yet spending big sums, they are running a myriad of ads – over a thousand versions on some days

    https://capx.co/the-tories-are-spending-much-less-than-labour-online-for-a-good-reason/

    I saw that article - the strategy is either genius or idiocy, with the final result probably obscuring which one was in fact the case.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    When MRP came out last week I'm sure it was stated it would be updated only once - in 2 weeks time, just before polling day.

    Yet ever since, there have been endless posts saying it will be updated this week. I get the impression it's everyone just repeating what they heard someone else (wrongly) say.

    Can anyone confirm?
  • Can you get an adblock for paper versions ;-)
  • In GE2017 a lot of polls about a week out/at the weekend looked a bit ropey for the Tories. If they can keep the gap at 7% lowest I think (whisper it) they’ve probably done it. But what do I know, I predicted TM majority 60 so....

    Although in some polls in 2017, the lead extended in the final week.
    Yes, you couldn’t accuse them of herding in 2017...

    There’s still a fair bit of divergence this time, though it feels a bit less. Think it’s very hard to call again, I could see anything from 2017 mk II to majority of around 50. I think any more is a huge ask and I don’t see landslide figures...

    On the other hand, I don’t see anything other than Tories comfortably largest party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    Con Majority.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!

  • That’s the thing. I’ve got one installed.

    I believe they can still target you based on your likes, etc. but I am surprised you can't block these ads (?). I haven't had a look in a while.
    Twitter not FB (the use of which I limit) so you might be right. Interactions on there. Which is odd because it’s mostly cricket, football, and science. The bastards.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited December 2019
    I asked earlier - does anyone know when we'll get the official electorate figure?

    This is the figure which will be the proof of the pudding re all those reports re applications to register.

    But in typical journalistic fashion, nobody bothers to follow it up!
  • MikeL said:

    I asked earlier - does anyone know when we'll get the official electorate figure?

    This is the figure which will be the proof of the pudding re all those reports re applications to register.

    But in typical journalistic fashion, nobody bothers to follow it up!

    Very good point. Must be a known fact by now. I bet the EC are waiting until they’ve all placed their turnout bets....
  • Prizes for all...literally...

    All four artists shortlisted for the 2019 Turner prize have been named winners after they came together and made a plea for judges to recognise the causes of “commonality, multiplicity and solidarity”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/dec/03/turner-prize-2019-lawrence-abu-hamdan-helen-cammock-oscar-murillo-and-tai-shani-shared

    They should share it with the long list, indeed all the artists who were nominated to the committee by at least one person.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure Raabs comments did much to help Johnson today and they feature on the front of the I newspaper tomorrow .

  • Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I don't think they necessarily link do they? The HP prediction from it last election wasn't what their poll was showing at the time, from what I recall.
  • It's a weird place to be this, potentially MOE away from a Hung Parliament or a landslide. Bizarre.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    BluerBlue said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yep. By this point in 2017 they'd had:

    35 x 3
    36 x 2
    37 x 1
    38 x 1
    39 x 1

    Data courtesy of RobD's wonderful graph.
    Invoice is in the post.
  • Betfair on the move in again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.

    Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance
  • Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
  • Cookie said:

    The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
    I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.

    Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
    No, what about you?
    The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
    Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.
    All the best.
    My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.
    All my friends and family are on the left (Tory grandparents sadly no longer with us). All my work colleagues are Tories. Work Christmas party on Friday 13th will almost certainly be pretty grim...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    BONG.

    .... oops, nine days early.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.
    I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.

    The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.

    The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.

    * My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Can you get an adblock for paper versions ;-)

    A terrier helps.
  • Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    The Greens?
  • I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I think the MRP has its own measurements, not the headline in the latest YouGov. I think it will show a majority of about 60.
    I think it will be nearer to 100. The Labour vote is holding up well in seats where the LibDems are the main challengers (i.e. University ones), but has collapsed in Leave-y areas in the North.

    The Tories are surging in these areas, and there will be some stunning results in 10 days time.

    The LibDems will grab a couple of seats in Deepest Remainia, and will probably lose at least one of Westmoreland, North Norfolk and Eastbourne*, but their major reward in 2019 will be a whole bunch of second places.

    * My money, counter-intuitively, is that it will be Westmoreland that goes this time around. I think they hold North Norfolk this time, but lose it in 2024.
    Can you imagine PB if the last MRP has con majority of 100?

    :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    egg said:

    Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.

    You met IDS?
    I think even HY is sceptical now about Chingford. Tebbits old seat.
    Yougov MRP had IDS 9% ahead in Chingford, the Tories 11% ahead nationally, so it is now an ultra marginal seat, indeed if anything fractionally more Labour than nationally
  • dellertronicdellertronic Posts: 133
    edited December 2019
    Cookie said:

    The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
    I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.

    Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
    No, what about you?
    The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
    Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.
    All the best.
    My interactions with people who agree with me are pretty much limited to this forum! Almost everyone I know is left wing and/or remainy. I'm big-city suburban, middle class and public sector.
    That makes two of us but have been surprised by the numbers of my NHS colleagues who have indicated they are trending Boris.
  • nunu2 said:
    Hmmm. That’s a very linear relationship.
  • Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    The Greens?
    The LDs in this seat.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.

    Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance

    What's your take on Chingford, HY?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    if it is based on the 9% YouGov lead of yesterday (?) it's CON maj 40
    All CON supporters will take that as the final result!
    I'll take any majority quite honestly, we need sterling and the stock market to shake off fear of the Corbyn for hard working Defined contribution pension potters.
    I'll take CON maj 2!

    We can always do a deal with SuperJo - or maybe SuperLayla - if we need to after the election!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited December 2019

    but analysis of what the major numerical weather models are showing is valid.

    Responses like: “but the BBC website app is showing drizzle” or “I’m sure we can cope with a bit of cold weather” are dumbing down beyond parody.

    Indeed.

    Very odd reactions from some people on a site which is usually an intelligent place, even when I don't agree with people.

    I think people aren't at their best at the moment. The slightest comment is jumped upon, sometimes by a pack. The partisan tends to triumph over the content, which may be nuanced and subtle but is lost at the moment. Everyone is seeing things through the outcome they want to happen, and this then becomes their expectation of what WILL happen. Thus an innocent question about what might happen in extreme weather it taken as a Labour agenda for bad losers :wink::smiley:

    I'm pretty chilled about the whole thing, but then I'm flying off on Election night to somewhere rather lovely. The election will come and go. We can't control what is 'out there' but we can control how we react to it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    St Ives is more Remain-y than most of the South East (and the Scilly Isles were v. pro-EU), so their Bollocks to Brexit crap has done them less harm there than in other areas. I understand the Conservative MP has had a few issues too.

    Still, even though Andrew George is a doughty campaigner, and the LDs are nationally up on 2017, I think they'll struggle to take it. I'm currently expecting it to be a narrow Conservative hold (1-2,000 majority).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.

    Wasn't it out at 10pm last time?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
  • Charles said:

    Chris_A said:
    This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and oranges

    Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.

    You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
    Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study

    Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
    Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
    No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
    One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
    Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
    If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
    Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
    Most rich people get rich by...

    ...having rich parents.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I expect a CON majority of 20-40 in the MRP tomorrow if it does come out.

    I predict one 60-80
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study

    Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
    Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
    No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
    One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
    Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
    If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
    Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
    Most rich people get rich by...

    ...having rich parents.
    Need some help with that chip on your shoulder?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Charles said:

    Chris_A said:
    This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and oranges

    Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.

    You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
    Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
    Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from Epping Forest hustings, good range of topics from Brexit to public services funding, Waspi women and the planting of trees and the local plan.

    Conservative, Labour, LD, Green and Young Peoples Party candidates all in attendance

    What's your take on Chingford, HY?
    Should be a Tory hold, just but Momentum are flooding it
  • nunu2 said:
    If that works out and Tories do sweep Midlands and North, I guess we have to kneel at the alter of the genius of Dom again?
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    edited December 2019
    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.

    If I am honest with you, neither side deserves a majority, especially not Labour. I would like to have a Government which over 50% of the population has voted for, so for that reason I hope - ideally - for some kind of rainbow Government.
    Maybe then we will get some kind of voting reform.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That data sale is going to prove troublesome for the LibDems. I mean, if you have to forge documents to obscure that it happened.....
    we know that the lib dem’s are comfortable with fraud. did someone say michael brown?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Ave_it said:

    Charles said:

    Chris_A said:
    This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and oranges

    Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.

    You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
    Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
    Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
    Why are you so team Tory? Is it religious belief or a need to protect wealth I struggle to understand the obsession
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
    Hope is what I am voting for, that is what I think it is and nothing you or anyone else says will change that. All the very best.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Commenter on Reddit says MRP is definitely coming tomorrow, although I think we all knew that anyway. What do we predict it will say?

    It will show a bigger Tory majority because Labour are going up in the south and London bit down in the north and Midlands.
  • Ave_it said:

    Charles said:

    Chris_A said:
    This tweet is garbage. it’s apples and oranges

    Truvada is a fixed dose combination product. i happen to think the US are idiots for paying premium prices for combos and reformulations but they do.

    You can buy the two generic versions of the products individually at a fraction of the price
    Gilead lost a case to extend their patent last September enabling the NHS to buy generic versions of Truvada for 12.5 per cent of the price. Reduced from £400 per month to £50 per month
    Are we (CON) going to win Caithness and Sutherland?
    Sadly I don't think so. Current feeling is we could deprive Liberals from holding
  • No new Labour bribe this evening?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    O/T Not sure if this has been covered already here but this cannot be good for the country...
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study

    Billionaires have lots of money, in related news it turns out bears really do shit in the woods.
    Out of interest, is there any level of inequality that you would consider too much?
    No. It's the politics of envy and it does none of us any good. What we need to do is ensure that those wealthy people feel as though they can invest in this country and create jobs for the rest of us. Taxing them into leaving won't achieve anything, really.
    One doesn’t make the poor richer, simply by making the rich poorer.
    Actually you do, every time they buy stuff. And we can, and should, get them to buy more of our stuff. But that's too proactive for many people, so they prefer just getting annoyed about it.
    If you want that wealth to be used to 'buy stuff' move it to the poor... they spend money rather than sit on it.
    Your knowledge of how people get very rich is very limited if you really believe they 'sit on their wealth'.
    Most rich people get rich by...

    ...having rich parents.
    Dear Heavens.......
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Let’s fuck ourselves and you vote Tory and I’ll vote labour?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
    While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.

    The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.

    Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.

  • humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.

    I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
  • humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.

    I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
    We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet

    This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT

    Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
    Not a great idea to admit that John......
    Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
    I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices

    See - capitalism isn't all bad
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet

    This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT

    Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
    Not a great idea to admit that John......
    Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
    I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices

    See - capitalism isn't all bad
    Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
    Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
    Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
    Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
    I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
    Not free then
    It is if you are in Amazon Prime. You seem to have a problem with Amazon
    i’ve just lost a piece of business to goldman sachs because they were willing to do it for nothing and i wasn’t.

    my boss pointed out the difference between zero marginal cost and free...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.

    I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
    We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
    You won’t stop it on here the real world is out there on the doorstep
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    This thread has now Quit the Race.
  • humbugger said:

    Good evening all.

    Just flicked through today's threads. It's quite extraordinary that after being in opposition for nearly 10 years Labour's ambition appears to be limiting the Tories to no overall majority. That says so much about Labour's limited appeal to so much of the UK's population.

    On PB, Labour posters seem to be desperately clinging on to hopes of increased tactical voting and even blizzards. Again, neither says much for Labour's appeal.

    Still all to play for though, and the next phase of Santa Jezza's huge giveaways is surely incoming.

    I struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority. The smallest Conservative lead recorded during the campaign has been 6. Even that might deliver a Tory majority. The average lead is 10. Questions on leader preference, economic competence and the like all suggest a substantial Tory lead. Regional polling patterns suggest the Tories are out-performing in marginal-rich parts of the country. Labour is mostly campaigning in its own seats, suggesting it is playing a defensive game. I would put the chances of a Tory majority at around 90%. No desperate clinging from me, although I will be devastated by this result.
    We have got a week or so to make sure this doesn't happen, we can definitely stop it. And I still hold at hope that the young and marginalised will come out for perhaps the important election in many years, to stop Boris Johnson. I live in hope.
    It's the hope that gets you though. I've learned not to expect anything good to happen in UK politics, it's easier that way.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Things I wish I could bet on but I doubt would be allowed;

    1) Student debt being cancelled being the next Labour throw of the dice.
    2) If Johnson gets any kind of working majority there being some small riots around Downing street by Labour supporters, same as last time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    My model spits out the following:

    Con 374 42
    Lab 205 32.7
    LD 3 12.3
    SNP & Plaid 49 4.8

    It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though -
    #1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker
    #2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.

    The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
    While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.

    The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.

    Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.

    This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited December 2019
    The story about Corbyn's pin-striped suit (on Guido, I know I know) is reminiscent of Harold Wilson and the Gannex raincoat. The owner of the Gannex manufacturer was Joseph (Lord) Kagan while Jeremy's suit is made by a company owned by an Imran Khan (not the Imran Khan presumably). Perhaps ermine awaits the Mr Khan likewise.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Ave_it said:

    Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?

    Yes I think so - I haven't seen any 36s
    Wonder if we will see any 36 or 37s this week. 37 will give me some hope of a HP.
    Another day another "hope"
    I'm voting for hope
    Hate, envy and bankruptcy more like
    While many of us have done well out of the last decade, there are plenty who haven't. Dead end jobs, zero hours contracts, can't get on the housing ladder, haven't had a pay rise in years, cost of living keeps going up, can't see a doctor for weeks.

    The fact is in this country there are a heck of a lot of people who feel as if they haven't got a lot to lose. People who think things can't get any worse. Apparently, that's about 35% of the population. I wouldn't call it hate or envy. They just feel like it's the only way their lives are ever going to improve.

    Instead of crowing in victory next week, Conservatives need to take a long hard look at how society is working (or not working) for the 35% of people for whom Corbynism seems to be the answer. Because the underlying conditions that gave rise to Corbynism will not go away, even if Corbyn does.

    This doesn't sound right. Isn't the Labour vote becoming increasingly middle class rather than working class?
    I think age rather than class is the biggest divide. Wasn't there a stat recently about how "millennials" only own 3% of the wealth by age 35 whereas baby boomers owned 12% at the same age.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited December 2019
    Dr Wollaston was on LBC with Ian Dale this evening and the video currently has 25 "Thumbs Up" Vs 242 "Tumbs Down"

    Not sure she's exactly endeared herself to LBC listeners... ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GSeHUd1c5Y
  • Pulpstar said:

    My model spits out the following:

    Con 374 42
    Lab 205 32.7
    LD 3 12.3
    SNP & Plaid 49 4.8

    It is based on Yougov and misses out on two things though -
    #1 No tactical voting is assumed anywhere, the inputs are the transition matrices from Yougov latest tracker
    #2 No leave/remain differential split for the transitions.

    The Lib Dem seats are Bath, Bermondsey, Orkney. I think Bermondsey stays Labour.

    That would be lovely, but I cant see labour having their lowest number of seats since 1935.

    I think Labour will get around 260-270
This discussion has been closed.