Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day. But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.
To be honest in more rural areas you either live within walking distance of your polling station or you live somewhere sufficiently remote you probably have a 4x4. I’d be more worried about turnout amongst young folk where weren’t that sure where their polling station was anyway, think it looks a bit slippy, and can see on Twitter that *everyone* is turning out for Jezza anyway.
4x4s are expensive (there are many poor people who live in the countryside) and not unstoppable.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling. And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Could we end up in a situation where the Lib Dems do worse than in 2017 in terms of voteshare? I seriously wonder if in the next few days we will see a total collapse in their vote, as it becomes Labour is the choice for most.
The Libs have been flatlining for nearly a fortnight. There's no particular reason to expect a collapse.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow. The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling. And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
The London Poll “Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.” Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.
The key is London - very different in the north
Actually polls a few months back said Labour Leavers ranked it very low on their priority list. I guess we will see.
Cough channel 4 focus groups cough
It wasn’t a channel 4 focus group. It was a Cummings set up, they were broadcasting exactly what he wanted them to see. 🙂
Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsense
You really are rather explosive!
It was an intrigued question. If areas are cut off, what happens? Perhaps someone who isn't just a TTT (tub-thumping-tory) could answer. What would it take to force a postponement? Or is the answer, simply nothing? If, for instance, the MetO were to issue Red Warnings, which means imminent danger to life, what could happen?
If it makes you feel calmer about this dyed in the wool just treat it as a series of curious questions. I'm intrigued. No agenda. In fact, I'll tell you now that I happen to think it would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, for reasons that I'm not going to divulge.
You may as well ask what if areas are cut off by an earthquake or civil unrest or anything else. The last GFS run (I've spent time on netweather in the past, the trolling on there is worse than here) show a standard winter northerly with a channel type low pressure on the friday which would lead to heavy snow over the south of the uk but it's way out in terms of timescales for accurate forecasting and will no doubt shift northwards becoming a more standard low pressure or sit off the coast and draw up mild air from the Atlantic. They always do. It's also the first couple of days of a cold spell, nowhere near enough time for chaos to have set in.
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow. The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction. Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base. Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing. Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.
Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads. No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
OT I liked Kamala Harris and thought she was a good candidate. Pity she couldn’t get traction
After the first debate where she demolished Biden, she sounded like she was drunk on subsequent debates. The debates suck publicity oxygen from campaigns and Harris was a victim of that.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
We could already have 15% of the votes cast. Maybe more.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.
Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).
The tories are just glad that these potential wealth creators want to make their homes on this planet and provide the rest of us with jobs.
Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow. The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.
Haven't they solved the problem of herding yet?
I don't know of a country where polls don't herd for safety in the last week of campaigning.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
Um. That's me!
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
Um. That's me!
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.
Actually that’s a good point on commuters with early trains. I retract my accusation of laziness in your case, but sustain it for junior minions in my office who live in London.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
I don’t demur because ours was similar. At Christmas, yes. Friday is super-productive.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Not free then
It is if you are in Amazon Prime. You seem to have a problem with Amazon
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???
re Wealth tax. It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.
Maybe it does have some merit after all...
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?
This isn't a novel or interesting problem, it is something that happens every time someone with assets, dies. Wine or art: ask a wine merchant or auctioneer. Unlisted shares: value business by usual metrics (assets, profitability, whatever) and divide by number of shares. Or for a fun alternative: you get to value the asset yourself - you just tell the tax man what you think it's worth - and he has to accept that value *but* he automatically has the right to buy it off you at the price you set.
A business owning shares in another unquoted business is expected (not sure if it was required or just best practice but something our accountant wanted and in the annual report) to provide an annual valuation of the business as part of producing annual accounts. For a wealth tax of 1 or 2% its fine to exempt wine and art, returns on those are much more than 2% less than the investments billionaires have access to so will be a small part of the portfolio even post wealth tax. Set the bar high so its <1000 people, possibly <100, let them self report with government option to buy assets at 150% of any self reported valuation. Get a team of a dozen private equity bods to go through any assets the govt should purchase on the cheap.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction. Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base. Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing. Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.
Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads. No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.
Piddy nailed on. Kin of beans is as right as me on this. Thornberry would make a fine willy.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
My fiancee's postal voting because she gets up at the crack of dawn (6.10am) to commute into London and then won't be back until late because of her works Christmas party. Don't underestimate the number of commuters who head off for work well before 7am, our neighbour leaves every day at 6.30am. I reckon postal voting will be huge this time.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
Thursday is the new Friday, I think we opened the beer fridge at 12, this year it's Budapest which is expect to be absolute carnage.
That data sale is going to prove troublesome for the LibDems. I mean, if you have to forge documents to obscure that it happened.....
Hope they get the full treatment that was dished out by the Electoral commission etc.. that Farage & Banks were subjected to but I am not holding my breath.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
Thursday is the new Friday, I think we opened the beer fridge at 12, this year it's Budapest which is expect to be absolute carnage.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
Um. That's me!
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.
Actually that’s a good point on commuters with early trains. I retract my accusation of laziness in your case, but sustain it for junior minions in my office who live in London.
No worries. To be fair they're not striking on GE day itself but I don't trust the bastards.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
Don’t you just go into work late?
Sometimes the train service does not allow you to be choosy.
Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
You met IDS?
I think even HY is sceptical now about Chingford. Tebbits old seat.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again
You do not understand Sky BJO
You pay for your football no matter your broadband
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
Don’t you just go into work late?
Most likely I'd be going in early to still bill a full day before the party.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???
Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.
Not a great idea to admit that John......
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devices
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for it
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to them
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTR
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual fee
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again
You do not understand Sky BJO
You pay for your football no matter your broadband
Until the Jezza socialist revolution comes, puts Sky out of business, turns all clubs into fund owned co-ops and nationalizes the EPL?
Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).
The tories are just glad that these potential wealth creators want to make their homes on this planet and provide the rest of us with jobs.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).
I am reliably informed by Mr Wayne that the chances of being invaded by Mars are a million to one. He said.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling. And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
Wasnt today's released earlier
Yes. I’ve done the Eggling already
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.
Those who know me know no harm's meant.
I don't know what you're implying exactly (or if indeed you are) but I have nothing negative to say about you or anyone else here. Have a lovely evening.
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.
Don’t you just go into work late?
Most likely I'd be going in early to still bill a full day before the party.
Then billing is more important than voting you should have got a postal or proxy vote.
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day. I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?
No, what about you?
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then. All the best.
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.
Those who know me know no harm's meant.
So you don't have Nish Kumar round for dinner that often then?
Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
snip
snip
"Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion, bright as magnesium" might just persuade a few oldies to stay at home.
We already have a wealth tax, it's called capital gains tax.
I'd rather it was a wealth tax, I've bought and sold shares in the past but I'm hellaciously under any 'wealth tax' idea. Well except Corbyn's mad £125k IHT potential rule
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now. Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.
Polls polls bigger polls and polling The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now. Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it? Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them. MRP little change.
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.
What has changed over the last day or so is there is now serious liquidity in the market.
We already have a wealth tax, it's called capital gains tax.
I'd rather it was a wealth tax, I've bought and sold shares in the past but I'm hellaciously under any 'wealth tax' idea. Well except Corbyn's mad £125k IHT potential rule
Technically no one is over Corbyns £125k rule, as it is on future gifts you receive. If you already own it you dont pay. If you dont own, the owner may not gift it to you.
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.
What has changed over the last day or so is there is now serious liquidity in the market.
Do you think this website could crowdfund advertising of the Betfair exchange to young Corbynites on Twitter? “Win back £30 for every £1 when Labour wins”. We could have Labour at evens in three days and all retire on the 13th.
Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction. Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base. Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing. Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.
Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads. No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.
Piddy nailed on. Kin of beans is as right as me on this. Thornberry would make a fine willy.
Saddle your pidders between your humps and ride into the sunset. it’s going to be Thornberry.
Comments
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.
No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=42&LAB=34&LIB=13&Brexit=3&Green=3&UKIP=0&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=
The debates suck publicity oxygen from campaigns and Harris was a victim of that.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1201967905350529026?s=20
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
I can imagine that every time she plays Scrabble she sues the other player for points.
Does anyone know what the odds were on Tory majority in 2017 before exit poll?
Brilliant in so many ways.
Just heard her say will Dad pick me up from my Christmas party next Thursday
11pm!!
Depends on what happens at 10PM
Might be a taxi or might be a yes and off straight to bed after
For a wealth tax of 1 or 2% its fine to exempt wine and art, returns on those are much more than 2% less than the investments billionaires have access to so will be a small part of the portfolio even post wealth tax.
Set the bar high so its <1000 people, possibly <100, let them self report with government option to buy assets at 150% of any self reported valuation. Get a team of a dozen private equity bods to go through any assets the govt should purchase on the cheap.
You pay for your football no matter your broadband
All the best.
Time to put the Bacardi away and go to bed
Despite the FREE footy
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
By tightened, he doesn't mean like my belt after Christmas.... That line is as flat as the earth....
Those who know me know no harm's meant.
Have a lovely evening.
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.
BICIPM?