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Comments
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4x4s are expensive (there are many poor people who live in the countryside) and not unstoppable.Time_to_Leave said:
To be honest in more rural areas you either live within walking distance of your polling station or you live somewhere sufficiently remote you probably have a 4x4. I’d be more worried about turnout amongst young folk where weren’t that sure where their polling station was anyway, think it looks a bit slippy, and can see on Twitter that *everyone* is turning out for Jezza anyway.nico67 said:
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.0 -
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling.
And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 680 -
The Libs have been flatlining for nearly a fortnight. There's no particular reason to expect a collapse.CorrectHorseBattery said:Could we end up in a situation where the Lib Dems do worse than in 2017 in terms of voteshare?
I seriously wonder if in the next few days we will see a total collapse in their vote, as it becomes Labour is the choice for most.0 -
That data sale is going to prove troublesome for the LibDems. I mean, if you have to forge documents to obscure that it happened.....CarlottaVance said:
Mail have it too:Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752019/Lib-Dem-press-chief-suspended-fake-email-row-website-voter-data-sale-claim.html1 -
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:Any more polls tonight?
The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.0 -
Are you ok, Hun?Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?0 -
Wasnt today's released earlieregg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling.
And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?0 -
It wasn’t a channel 4 focus group. It was a Cummings set up, they were broadcasting exactly what he wanted them to see. 🙂Floater said:
Cough channel 4 focus groups coughCorrectHorseBattery said:
Actually polls a few months back said Labour Leavers ranked it very low on their priority list. I guess we will see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is London - very different in the northegg said:The London Poll
“Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.”
Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.0 -
You may as well ask what if areas are cut off by an earthquake or civil unrest or anything else. The last GFS run (I've spent time on netweather in the past, the trolling on there is worse than here) show a standard winter northerly with a channel type low pressure on the friday which would lead to heavy snow over the south of the uk but it's way out in terms of timescales for accurate forecasting and will no doubt shift northwards becoming a more standard low pressure or sit off the coast and draw up mild air from the Atlantic. They always do. It's also the first couple of days of a cold spell, nowhere near enough time for chaos to have set in.Mysticrose said:
You really are rather explosive!wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
It was an intrigued question. If areas are cut off, what happens? Perhaps someone who isn't just a TTT (tub-thumping-tory) could answer. What would it take to force a postponement? Or is the answer, simply nothing? If, for instance, the MetO were to issue Red Warnings, which means imminent danger to life, what could happen?
If it makes you feel calmer about this dyed in the wool just treat it as a series of curious questions. I'm intrigued. No agenda. In fact, I'll tell you now that I happen to think it would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, for reasons that I'm not going to divulge.0 -
Weather looking grim on the 12th. Edinburgh forecast to be in the -1 to +4 band, and freezing rain.0
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Haven't they solved the problem of herding yet?speedy2 said:
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:Any more polls tonight?
The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.0 -
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads.camel said:
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.egg said:Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.0 -
Not free thenBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
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Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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After the first debate where she demolished Biden, she sounded like she was drunk on subsequent debates.numbertwelve said:OT I liked Kamala Harris and thought she was a good candidate. Pity she couldn’t get traction
The debates suck publicity oxygen from campaigns and Harris was a victim of that.0 -
I reckon nationalist voters will be more flaky than othersStuartDickson said:Weather looking grim on the 12th. Edinburgh forecast to be in the -1 to +4 band, and freezing rain.
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We could already have 15% of the votes cast. Maybe more.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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What's the point in predicting the 2019 result from the 2010 base?bigjohnowls said:
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Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Exactly bollocks.wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
The tories are just glad that these potential wealth creators want to make their homes on this planet and provide the rest of us with jobs.ozymandias said:Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).0 -
Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.1
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I don't know of a country where polls don't herd for safety in the last week of campaigning.Andy_JS said:
Haven't they solved the problem of herding yet?speedy2 said:
Ipsos Mori should be out tomorrow.CorrectHorseBattery said:Any more polls tonight?
The second to last Mori poll is always the one I pay the most attention to, because herding in the last week before election day makes most polls useless.0 -
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Um. That's me!Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.0 -
Now that's a party...MaxPB said:
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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That shows the Lib Dems losing 44 seats. I think they won’t do well, but a negative number of seats seems unlikely...bigjohnowls said:0 -
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again-1 -
Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.470
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That is not grim for Auld Reekie in December. In fact in my years living in Edinburgh that is quite mildStuartDickson said:Weather looking grim on the 12th. Edinburgh forecast to be in the -1 to +4 band, and freezing rain.
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Actually that’s a good point on commuters with early trains. I retract my accusation of laziness in your case, but sustain it for junior minions in my office who live in London.Casino_Royale said:
Um. That's me!Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.
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Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?MaxPB said:
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?0 -
You met IDS?KentRising said:Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
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Interesting....it didn't shift at all when the two polls came out earlier today bouncing around 1.51/1.52noisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
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I don’t demur because ours was similar. At Christmas, yes. Friday is super-productive.Foxy said:
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?MaxPB said:
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?
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If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
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Can't they have a dictionary to decide the meaning of words?CarlottaVance said:
I can imagine that every time she plays Scrabble she sues the other player for points.0 -
My totally unscientific estimation is that if polls are static between now and next Thursday Tory majority odds will be 1.25-1.3
Does anyone know what the odds were on Tory majority in 2017 before exit poll?0 -
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???kle4 said:
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
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0
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It is if you are in Amazon Prime. You seem to have a problem with AmazonJBriskinindyref2 said:
Not free thenBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.1 -
I pay 79JBriskinindyref2 said:
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???kle4 said:
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
My youngest daughter just on phone to Mrs BJ.
Just heard her say will Dad pick me up from my Christmas party next Thursday
11pm!!
Depends on what happens at 10PM
Might be a taxi or might be a yes and off straight to bed after0 -
A business owning shares in another unquoted business is expected (not sure if it was required or just best practice but something our accountant wanted and in the annual report) to provide an annual valuation of the business as part of producing annual accounts.IshmaelZ said:
This isn't a novel or interesting problem, it is something that happens every time someone with assets, dies. Wine or art: ask a wine merchant or auctioneer. Unlisted shares: value business by usual metrics (assets, profitability, whatever) and divide by number of shares. Or for a fun alternative: you get to value the asset yourself - you just tell the tax man what you think it's worth - and he has to accept that value *but* he automatically has the right to buy it off you at the price you set.camel said:
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...
For a wealth tax of 1 or 2% its fine to exempt wine and art, returns on those are much more than 2% less than the investments billionaires have access to so will be a small part of the portfolio even post wealth tax.
Set the bar high so its <1000 people, possibly <100, let them self report with government option to buy assets at 150% of any self reported valuation. Get a team of a dozen private equity bods to go through any assets the govt should purchase on the cheap.0 -
Don’t you just go into work late?LostPassword said:
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
Piddy nailed on. Kin of beans is as right as me on this. Thornberry would make a fine willy.egg said:
Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads.camel said:
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.egg said:Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.0 -
My fiancee's postal voting because she gets up at the crack of dawn (6.10am) to commute into London and then won't be back until late because of her works Christmas party. Don't underestimate the number of commuters who head off for work well before 7am, our neighbour leaves every day at 6.30am. I reckon postal voting will be huge this time.LostPassword said:
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
Thursday is the new Friday, I think we opened the beer fridge at 12, this year it's Budapest which is expect to be absolute carnage.Foxy said:
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?MaxPB said:
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?0 -
Factual note: there are now only 8 campaigning days left before polling dayCorrectHorseBattery said:
0 -
Hope they get the full treatment that was dished out by the Electoral commission etc.. that Farage & Banks were subjected to but I am not holding my breath.MarqueeMark said:
That data sale is going to prove troublesome for the LibDems. I mean, if you have to forge documents to obscure that it happened.....CarlottaVance said:
Mail have it too:Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752019/Lib-Dem-press-chief-suspended-fake-email-row-website-voter-data-sale-claim.html0 -
No wonder productivity is through the floor....MaxPB said:
Thursday is the new Friday, I think we opened the beer fridge at 12, this year it's Budapest which is expect to be absolute carnage.Foxy said:
Polls open at 0700. When does your party begin?MaxPB said:
Polls close at 10, my work Xmas party didn't finish until 3am last year!Time_to_Leave said:
Actually, is it lawful to vote when you’re pissed? Can the staff tell you to go away? I’m just wondering about all the laws dating back to the old days.MaxPB said:
Additionally lots of people wil have plans for Thursday night given its expected to be one of the main nights for work Xmas parties. I expect a significant proportion of those will have applied for postal votes.nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
Do people really get that pissed up on a Thursday night?0 -
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
0 -
No worries. To be fair they're not striking on GE day itself but I don't trust the bastards.Time_to_Leave said:
Actually that’s a good point on commuters with early trains. I retract my accusation of laziness in your case, but sustain it for junior minions in my office who live in London.Casino_Royale said:
Um. That's me!Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
With the SWR rail strike I can't get to London and back easily, and my train (6:44) leaves before the polling station opens.
I have a party in the afternoon/evening so that wouldn't work either. Hence, postal vote.0 -
Sometimes the train service does not allow you to be choosy.nichomar said:
Don’t you just go into work late?LostPassword said:
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
BluerBlue said:
Factual note: there are now only 8 campaigning days left before polling dayCorrectHorseBattery said:
0 -
I think even HY is sceptical now about Chingford. Tebbits old seat.Mexicanpete said:
You met IDS?KentRising said:Anecdotal: met a Chingford voter today who usually votes Labour but, put-off by Momentum's exploits in the constituency and Corbyn, is voting Tory this time.
0 -
You do not understand Sky BJObigjohnowls said:
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again
You pay for your football no matter your broadband0 -
Was 1.54 earlier today about 9amishnoisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
0 -
Most likely I'd be going in early to still bill a full day before the party.nichomar said:
Don’t you just go into work late?LostPassword said:
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.0 -
I assume you pay monthly but I pay yearlyJBriskinindyref2 said:
You can t watch footie on Amazon prime for free - get a grip people - and why s Big G paying 79 a year when me and ms briskin pay 90???kle4 said:
Quite so. No doubt they price will begin to increase, as they expand what it is for, but if someone was already paying for it and intending to keep doing so, it is effectively no additional cost for those people.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Until the Jezza socialist revolution comes, puts Sky out of business, turns all clubs into fund owned co-ops and nationalizes the EPL?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not understand Sky BJObigjohnowls said:
Thats like saying SKY Broadband landline are a bargain at £69 a month and you get free football too!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not spinning Amazon prime and I did say it cost £79 which is the fee I paid last week to renew it for a year. The football is an added bonus and is included in my annual feeJBriskinindyref2 said:
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Not that i would ever pay for Sky
Shit i have done it again
You pay for your football no matter your broadband0 -
They’ve invited them in with a bung.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly bollocks.wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
The tories are just glad that these potential wealth creators want to make their homes on this planet and provide the rest of us with jobs.ozymandias said:Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).0 -
The first year I lived in Scotland, it snowed in June.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not grim for Auld Reekie in December. In fact in my years living in Edinburgh that is quite mildStuartDickson said:Weather looking grim on the 12th. Edinburgh forecast to be in the -1 to +4 band, and freezing rain.
0 -
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.0 -
two lines look parallel to me?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Is it just me? That was a 2010 Electoral Calculus.bigjohnowls said:0 -
No search thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes (trademark Billy Connolly).1
-
Whoops my EC prediction has SNP ON 6 seats
Time to put the Bacardi away and go to bed
Despite the FREE footy0 -
I am reliably informed by Mr Wayne that the chances of being invaded by Mars are a million to one. He said.ozymandias said:Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).2 -
Yes. I’ve done the Eggling alreadyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Wasnt today's released earlieregg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling.
And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage0 -
https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1201953367611842560BannedinnParis said:
two lines look parallel to me?CorrectHorseBattery said:
By tightened, he doesn't mean like my belt after Christmas.... That line is as flat as the earth....1 -
7 from tomorrowBluerBlue said:
Factual note: there are now only 8 campaigning days left before polling dayCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.
Those who know me know no harm's meant.0 -
..Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.0 -
It is a helpful reminder though that with the new SNP reality, 200 for Labour is 250 in “old money”.bigjohnowls said:Whoops my EC prediction has SNP ON 6 seats
Time to put the Bacardi away and go to bed
Despite the FREE footy
0 -
I don't know what you're implying exactly (or if indeed you are) but I have nothing negative to say about you or anyone else here.Casino_Royale said:
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.
Those who know me know no harm's meant.
Have a lovely evening.0 -
Then billing is more important than voting you should have got a postal or proxy vote.LostPassword said:
Most likely I'd be going in early to still bill a full day before the party.nichomar said:
Don’t you just go into work late?LostPassword said:
If I was going in to the office for work (& the xmas party) on the 12th I'd be catching the bus before 06:45. Wouldn't be laziness stopping me from voting in the morning.Time_to_Leave said:
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
So you don't have Nish Kumar round for dinner that often then?Casino_Royale said:
We have some good discussions and sometimes some Barneys, yes.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair enough, it must be very vibrant when you discuss politics with them then.Casino_Royale said:
The majority of my friends and colleagues are on the political Left.CorrectHorseBattery said:
No, what about you?Casino_Royale said:
Genuine question: are your interactions with people who disagree with you solely limited to this forum?CorrectHorseBattery said:The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.
All the best.
Those who know me know no harm's meant.0 -
6 until the Tories begin their GE campaign?Big_G_NorthWales said:
7 from tomorrowBluerBlue said:
Factual note: there are now only 8 campaigning days left before polling dayCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
"Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion, bright as magnesium" might just persuade a few oldies to stay at home.IshmaelZ said:
Exactly bollocks.wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
snipozymandias said:Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
snip0 -
It depends what you consider to be a win in 2019. If Labour most seats is your objective cancel the taxi.bigjohnowls said:My youngest daughter just on phone to Mrs BJ.
Just heard her say will Dad pick me up from my Christmas party next Thursday
11pm!!
Depends on what happens at 10PM
Might be a taxi or might be a yes and off straight to bed after0 -
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.0 -
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.JamesP said:
Was 1.54 earlier today about 9amishnoisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
0 -
Things have been going ok so far, so why risk it?FrancisUrquhart said:
6 until the Tories begin their GE campaign?Big_G_NorthWales said:
7 from tomorrowBluerBlue said:
Factual note: there are now only 8 campaigning days left before polling dayCorrectHorseBattery said:
0 -
I have a good eye.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1201953367611842560BannedinnParis said:
two lines look parallel to me?CorrectHorseBattery said:
By tightened, he doesn't mean like my belt after Christmas.... That line is as flat as the earth....
0 -
Tick Tock Tick Tock?MarqueeMark said:
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.JamesP said:
Was 1.54 earlier today about 9amishnoisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
BICIPM?0 -
That is a very fair postegg said:
But the Tories have had a great weekend since then, they are on a roll now.bigjohnowls said:
1st MRP was based on 43/32 ie 11egg said:Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth).
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
If there is an MRP based on 9 it shold have a Tory Maj of between 30 and 40 not 68
Labour need to get this election on to something that is more in their favour after a weekend on the subject of security which they were destroyed in. Did Boris politicise what happened on Friday? Yes of course he did, and he played a blinder. Where traditional labour voters were saying on doorsteps they are voting Boris for Brexit and to keep Corbyn out they are still saying that, but now firstly saying vote Boris to keep us safe. If its not actually true that Boris knee jerk reactionary laissez faire capitalism, privatise parole, prisons and border force to make it better is actually going to keep our communities safer, then that’s certainly not going to be proved before voting day in a few days is it?
Unfortunately Trump wanting NHS is no longer a player in this election because, ironically, the voters are suspicious of Russian involvement in their elections. If there was a poll carried out, who do you think is closer to Putin Boris or Corbyn, it would be 80% saying Corbyn. I am calling this a fact the Tories should exploit in the remaining week of the campaigning. I am not saying its fair, I am saying old associations die hard and the truth today might actually be the other way around, but the fact is polls will report that sort of response to the question. And this is a powerful Tory weapon that has fortunately emerged in the last few days for them.
MRP little change.0 -
What has changed over the last day or so is there is now serious liquidity in the market.MarqueeMark said:
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.JamesP said:
Was 1.54 earlier today about 9amishnoisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
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I’ve been in Glasgow in June and it was sleeting on us coatless short sleeved dumbstruck business day trippers.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The first year I lived in Scotland, it snowed in June.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not grim for Auld Reekie in December. In fact in my years living in Edinburgh that is quite mildStuartDickson said:Weather looking grim on the 12th. Edinburgh forecast to be in the -1 to +4 band, and freezing rain.
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Technically no one is over Corbyns £125k rule, as it is on future gifts you receive. If you already own it you dont pay. If you dont own, the owner may not gift it to you.Pulpstar said:
I'd rather it was a wealth tax, I've bought and sold shares in the past but I'm hellaciously under any 'wealth tax' idea. Well except Corbyn's mad £125k IHT potential ruleMaxPB said:We already have a wealth tax, it's called capital gains tax.
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Do you think this website could crowdfund advertising of the Betfair exchange to young Corbynites on Twitter? “Win back £30 for every £1 when Labour wins”. We could have Labour at evens in three days and all retire on the 13th.FrancisUrquhart said:
What has changed over the last day or so is there is now serious liquidity in the market.MarqueeMark said:
It will naturally come in about that much each remaining day as nothing changes..... No polling excitement today, no gaffes, as you were....clock running down to a Boris majority.JamesP said:
Was 1.54 earlier today about 9amishnoisywinter said:Betfair moved in a bit to Tory majority now 1.47
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Saddle your pidders between your humps and ride into the sunset. it’s going to be Thornberry.camel said:
Piddy nailed on. Kin of beans is as right as me on this. Thornberry would make a fine willy.egg said:
Don’t mention Pidcock. No one mention pidders. She’s not even a player. I‘ll tell how out of it she is, she reminds me of a female Owen Jones. See? Nuff said. Saw something on here earlier Kin of beans waxing lyrical about Pidcock X factor whilst Byronic was thinking with his gonads.camel said:
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.egg said:Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
No. No it’s wrong. Don’t go there.0 -
Am I right in saying the highest Labour has got thus far is 35%?1
