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Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.0 -
Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?0 -
Mauve said:Black_Rook said:Mauve said:
My ERG-member Tory MP - in a Remain constituency - avoids Brexit in his Royal Mail-delivered leaflet, spouting vacuities where the LD and Labour candidates spell out serious policy. While the stood-down Greens are sort-of campaigning, pushing out leaflets reminding us of the policies they'd be arguing for if they'd not been stood down "so our excellent LD candidate can make the Remain case"Black_Rook said:
Yes, my MP rebelled on the meaningful vote too. Since then he's just stuck to complaining on Twitter about Brexit being bad, rather than taking any actual action (a bit like a Conservative Jess Phillips with respect to Corbyn). Could be a deliberate tactic to keep leavers on side in these seats, so they aren't reminded that their sitting MP isn't a leaver.Mauve said:Interesting. Just had my first Conservative leaflet from my current (very safe) Conservative MP. The word Brexit doesn't appear at all. Instead it focusses on local transport, hospitals and schools, as well as the threat from an SNP / Labour government.
A change in tactics, perhaps?
The more interesting thing, though, is the total collapse of Tory activists. Inevitably, there are probably ten times as many LD posters around as for the other parties put together. But whereas 15 years ago, the hedgerows in the empty parts were awash with bright blue, there's now nothing at all outside the populated bits. Few Tory activists are fit enough to deliver, canvass or put posters up: my 90-yo Tory activist neighbour, though, tells me the under-80 yo activists won't campaign "because they're frightened of revealing their politics". And the candidate himself outright refuses to attend hustings.
Truth is: they're frit. Like May before them
Worse, though: Maggie must be turning in her grave to see what brain-dead wimps are claiming to be carrying her standard. None of them have ever taken a commercial risk, had to meet a payroll or done an honest day's work in a competitive industry. Can't handle criticism, born entitled.
Mini-Johnsons to a humunculus.0 -
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT1 -
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...0 -
But when the LibDems Head of Press gets suspended mid-campaign in a scandal over forging a document, their leader distracted by the possibility of losing her seat and the vultures already circling to replace her, you have to wonder what is going on at the heart of their campaign?NickPalmer said:Incidentally, despite the assurances given by LibDem HQ to Mike, the "LibDems are best placed to win here" stuff from him is, I'm told, still being sent out in Portsmouth South, where the constituency poll and MRP have shown it to be nonsense. Mike's got an absolute right to campaign for his preference, but I'd think it was a bad long-term investment to have his name used indiscriminately when it will turn out badly wrong - people won't believe it even when it's true.
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Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT0 -
Bizarre. Here's the latest polls:rottenborough said:Buttigieg now ahead of Warren on BF.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Bloomberg not off to a bad start at 6%, though I guess most of that is novelty value and his initial spending splurge. Sanders pulling away from Warren, but Biden still cruising.0 -
Amazon Secundus?Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT0 -
Pinning your hopes on the weather now?Mysticrose said:Projected lying snow depths for Friday next week. This is before the (apparent) snowstorm hits the southeast that day.
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg0 -
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad-1 -
That is true, also true is that the Conservative vote is highly concentrated with those over the age of 50, a lot of little old ladies who won't like it to go out in the snow and ice.nico67 said:
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.
But it's too early to say about the weather, we will know by Sunday.0 -
Chapter one in brand management for beginners.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, despite the assurances given by LibDem HQ to Mike, the "LibDems are best placed to win here" stuff from him is, I'm told, still being sent out in Portsmouth South, where the constituency poll and MRP have shown it to be nonsense. Mike's got an absolute right to campaign for his preference, but I'd think it was a bad long-term investment to have his name used indiscriminately when it will turn out badly wrong - people won't believe it even when it's true.
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Interesting . I think if things got extreme and a Red Warning was put out which is exceptionally rare then that would be a serious issue . But currently the modeling doesn’t suggest that . It’s rare for snow to effect the UK widely.Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
I really don’t know the legal aspects in detail so will now have a search on the net .0 -
LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA0
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Yes I've no idea who it would help (I have some theories but will keep my powder dry).nico67 said:
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.
All I do know is that all 3 major models (GFS, ECM and UKMO) are firming up on a significant cold spell from Wednesday onwards. That's still a long way off in meteorological terms.
However, notwithstanding the bravado on here from some, we have significant problems if the latest model runs materialise.
They might be geared up for it in Iowa. We're not.0 -
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I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:0 -
To be honest in more rural areas you either live within walking distance of your polling station or you live somewhere sufficiently remote you probably have a 4x4. I’d be more worried about turnout amongst young folk where weren’t that sure where their polling station was anyway, think it looks a bit slippy, and can see on Twitter that *everyone* is turning out for Jezza anyway.nico67 said:
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.
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I’m shocked @Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
As a fellow North Walian you should be following Wrexham’s crunch match at the foot of the conference table. Currently 2-nil up away at Eastleigh.
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There is actually a method (for property at least): the owner gives their own valuation BUT they then have to sell at that value if someone offers them the money. Much harder for movable assets of course, particularly as a public register would be gold mine for burglars.camel said:
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...0 -
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:0 -
Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
Yes.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
It's winter isn't it?0 -
Cancelled election? No. Boris with an excuse to be on telly on polling day “taking command of the situation”? Yup.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
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Nothing in the weather charts suggest anywhere off the mountain tops would be 'cut off'.Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
It might snow a bit. People are able to get about in snow, weve had it in this country before I believe.2 -
ah - the minion who err made a bit of a mistake......Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
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Its not free iirc you have aubscribe to prime. If amazon want football they will.have seriously outbid sky..it could mean.players on a million a week...ydoethur said:
PLEASE let Test cricket go to Amazon Prime...Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Sky’s welcome to the hit’n’giggle, er, T20.0 -
The London Poll
“Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.”
Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.0 -
ECM is very tasty (if you like snow) at the end of its run.nico67 said:
Interesting . I think if things got extreme and a Red Warning was put out which is exceptionally rare then that would be a serious issue . But currently the modeling doesn’t suggest that . It’s rare for snow to effect the UK widely.Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
I really don’t know the legal aspects in detail so will now have a search on the net .
It's interesting isn't it? If we had Red Warnings would Boris invoke Emergency Powers?!
All hypothetical, of course, and usually these severe cold projections don't materialise. But .... hmmm ... the models look potent.0 -
Me too. Neither Bozo’s name or picture anywhere. Even “Conservative” only appears fairly small on the address box. Stuff intended to scare people about a hung parliament and sturgeon. Lots of stuff about the MP. Get Brexit done appears as a strapline but no other mention of it.Black_Rook said:
Had a very similar leaflet in my (also very, very safe) Conservative-held constituency the other day. Schools, hospitals, crime, environment and animal welfare all included. Emphasised need for a Conservative majority Government, and threat of Indyref2 without one. But no mention of Europe, Brexit or the Prime Minister. It might just be that, in areas that are either pro-Remain or roughly split down the middle, they don't feel the need to further antagonise Remain-leaning voters by going on about Brexit.Mauve said:Interesting. Just had my first Conservative leaflet from my current (very safe) Conservative MP. The word Brexit doesn't appear at all. Instead it focusses on local transport, hospitals and schools, as well as the threat from an SNP / Labour government.
A change in tactics, perhaps?0 -
Doubt it. Unless BBC have lost their minds. Broadcast rules on polling day say only a clip of each party leader voting iirc.Time_to_Leave said:
Cancelled election? No. Boris with an excuse to be on telly on polling day “taking command of the situation”? Yup.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:1 -
Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.1
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Well if all Labour supporters are as hysterical as MysticRose over winter being cold then Tories in for a landslide. Or rather an avalanche??wooliedyed said:
Nothing in the weather charts suggest anywhere off the mountain tops would be 'cut off'.Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
It might snow a bit. People are able to get about in snow, weve had it in this country before I believe.
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Good for them. I always think of Mickey Thomas re Wrexham. He is very ill and very brave and lives nearbyRobinWiggs said:
I’m shocked @Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
As a fellow North Walian you should be following Wrexham’s crunch match at the foot of the conference table. Currently 2-nil up away at Eastleigh.1 -
This isn't a novel or interesting problem, it is something that happens every time someone with assets, dies. Wine or art: ask a wine merchant or auctioneer. Unlisted shares: value business by usual metrics (assets, profitability, whatever) and divide by number of shares. Or for a fun alternative: you get to value the asset yourself - you just tell the tax man what you think it's worth - and he has to accept that value *but* he automatically has the right to buy it off you at the price you set.camel said:
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...0 -
Um no, labour already win the cities, they need to get the town and village vote out. Tories vote whatever the weathernico67 said:
Bad weather might help the Tories . Postal votes tend to favour them so they’ll be in by then .speedy2 said:
I'm almost convinced that the only things that can deny the Conservatives a majority is the last Debate and the snow on election day.nico67 said:In terms of turnout and weather .
Generally it doesn’t make a huge difference but that’s because the vast majority of elections are not held in the winter months .
It’s more likely though to effect undecided voters . It also tends to have a slight effect on demographic C2DE groups.
But it's too early, weather prediction accuracy is poor 100 hours or more into the future.
But on the day rural areas would be more hit than towns and cities the latter favouring Labour.0 -
Well, the olds have all postal voted Tory already...ozymandias said:
Well if all Labour supporters are as hysterical as MysticRose over winter being cold then Tories in for a landslide. Or rather an avalanche??wooliedyed said:
Nothing in the weather charts suggest anywhere off the mountain tops would be 'cut off'.Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
It might snow a bit. People are able to get about in snow, weve had it in this country before I believe.0 -
Thanks for posting the links.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
If the Met Office issue weather warnings for Election Day on Sunday evening then I expect the Today programme to blow a gasket on Monday morning.0 -
It's actually temperatures around 0-2 degrees celsius. You have to add 8-10 degrees to get the ground temperature from 850mb altitudes.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
So it's predicting some frost and snow in hilly and coastal areas.
But it's still early.1 -
Yeah but in the apocalyptic conditions Mysticrose is conjuring up, the Government might need to speak. Must be a loophole for that it wouldn’t be election related, honest guv.rottenborough said:
Doubt it. Unless BBC have lost their minds. Broadcast rules on polling day say only a clip of each party leader voting iirc.Time_to_Leave said:
Cancelled election? No. Boris with an excuse to be on telly on polling day “taking command of the situation”? Yup.Mysticrose said:
It really isn't just 'a bit of cold weather' Andy. We're talking a really potent blast, with significantly sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall.Andy_JS said:
I'm sure we'll manage with a bit of cold weather.Mysticrose said:
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Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
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Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
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BBC says 13th will be light rain and a gentle breeze:Mysticrose said:Projected lying snow depths for Friday next week. This is before the (apparent) snowstorm hits the southeast that day.
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
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Could we end up in a situation where the Lib Dems do worse than in 2017 in terms of voteshare?
I seriously wonder if in the next few days we will see a total collapse in their vote, as it becomes Labour is the choice for most.0 -
Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.0 -
I live in an extremely rural area, polling station is <1 mile. It would have to be a Beast From The East to prevent people getting there. Even then, one of my neighbours has a tractor and trailer, so he'd give me a lift.Andy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
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Mail have it too:Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7752019/Lib-Dem-press-chief-suspended-fake-email-row-website-voter-data-sale-claim.html0 -
There should not be any problems as long as it does not affect the Conservative vote. If it looks like it might boost Labour, a National Emergency will be declared and the election suspended....Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?1 -
Yes you are right but to be fair we have Amazon Prime anyway so the football is not an extra chargesquareroot2 said:
Its not free iirc you have aubscribe to prime. If amazon want football they will.have seriously outbid sky..it could mean.players on a million a week...ydoethur said:
PLEASE let Test cricket go to Amazon Prime...Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
Sky’s welcome to the hit’n’giggle, er, T20.0 -
Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).
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Any more polls tonight?0
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Beibheirli_C said:
There should not be any problems as long as it does not affect the Conservative vote. If it looks like it might boost Labour, a National Emergency will be declared and the election suspended....Mysticrose said:Any odds available on a cancelled election?!!!
What would happen if significant areas are cut off?
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Those of us who are anti Corbyn will move heaven and hell to vote to make sure he gets nowhere near powerAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I live in an extremely rural area, polling station is <1 mile. It would have to be a Beast From The East to prevent people getting there. Even then, one of my neighbours has a tractor and trailer, so he'd give me a lift. </p>Andy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
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Health Warning: It's a Guido Fawkes story. Wait for a proper outlet to report it.Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
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As are those of us who are anti Johnson.Floater said:
Those of us who are anti Corbyn will move heaven and hell to vote to make sure he gets nowhere near powerAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I live in an extremely rural area, polling station is <1 mile. It would have to be a Beast From The East to prevent people getting there. Even then, one of my neighbours has a tractor and trailer, so he'd give me a lift. </p>Andy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
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Yeah they're just based on meaningless algorithms. Like Apps: useless.Sunil_Prasannan said:
BBC says 13th will be light rain and a gentle breeze:Mysticrose said:Projected lying snow depths for Friday next week. This is before the (apparent) snowstorm hits the southeast that day.
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
If you're interested in the BBC rather than their sources, which I've quoted direct to you (GFS, ECM, UKMO) then the BBC forecaster just now mentioned the switch to very cold weather next week.
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Lib Dems lengthening in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
LD 2/5
Con 9/40 -
The key is London - very different in the northegg said:The London Poll
“Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.”
Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.0 -
I would give cash money if she was *actually* a minion. Small, yellow, irrationally cheerful, doesn't make sense... hold on, I think I'm onto something...Floater said:
ah - the minion who err made a bit of a mistake......Big_G_NorthWales said:LibDem Head of Press Rosy Cobb Suspended by Party https://t.co/s4WELlckwA
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The BBC, admired around the world, has been behaving in a way that favours the Tories says Peter Oborne?
The problem I always felt with the BBC is it’s not independent of government. When there is a change of DG it favours the party in power. This is because the party in power controls the board. The Board the DG appointment. The DG then controls the controllers, the controllers appointment of news editors. So the longer a party in power the more the BBC dances their tune like puppet on a string.
No, it’s not Peter who has gone on a journey, he is where he’s always been. It’s the soul of British Conservatism, the Conservative party that has gone walkabout.0 -
Last option seems entertaining, Thank you for taking time to respond.IshmaelZ said:
This isn't a novel or interesting problem, it is something that happens every time someone with assets, dies. Wine or art: ask a wine merchant or auctioneer. Unlisted shares: value business by usual metrics (assets, profitability, whatever) and divide by number of shares. Or for a fun alternative: you get to value the asset yourself - you just tell the tax man what you think it's worth - and he has to accept that value *but* he automatically has the right to buy it off you at the price you set.camel said:
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...0 -
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1201919626260762624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1201919626260762624&ref_url=https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=harrysplace&t_i=120991%20http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F%3Fp%3D120991&t_u=http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F2019%2F12%2F02%2Fthe-end-of-the-beginning%2F&t_e=The%20end%20of%20the%20beginning%3F&t_d=The%20end%20of%20the%20beginning%3F&t_t=The%20end%20of%20the%20beginning%3F&s_o=desc#version=a7c11c2c4a19752acf5a7bdea26a55d8rottenborough said:0 -
I thought all Tories were known to be evil baby eating lizard men from Saturn in disguise anyway?ozymandias said:Are there any odds over an alien invasion next weekend affecting the general election? I saw something on the internet concerning the possibility of a large invasion fleet gathering near Saturn.
Presumably this may discourage the Tory vote so hung parliament a racing certainty? (after we've pledged allegiance to General Zamgabonagan of course).
0 -
Actually polls a few months back said Labour Leavers ranked it very low on their priority list. I guess we will see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is London - very different in the northegg said:The London Poll
“Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.”
Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.0 -
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad-1 -
Wishful thinking - they know whats comingwooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
0 -
We could televise it. Lots of jeopardy.camel said:
Last option seems entertaining, Thank you for taking time to respond.IshmaelZ said:
This isn't a novel or interesting problem, it is something that happens every time someone with assets, dies. Wine or art: ask a wine merchant or auctioneer. Unlisted shares: value business by usual metrics (assets, profitability, whatever) and divide by number of shares. Or for a fun alternative: you get to value the asset yourself - you just tell the tax man what you think it's worth - and he has to accept that value *but* he automatically has the right to buy it off you at the price you set.camel said:
So no-one who proposes a wealth tax has any suggestions as to how to value an unsold and untraded asset? Maybe that's why we have CGT and not a wealth tax?Fysics_Teacher said:
Or that old painting in the attic that turns out to be an old master: do you get done for tax evasion if you didn’t declare it for several years because you didn’t know? I would expect Antiques Roadshow to go off air fairly rapidly.Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. Also what about collections like wine or art?camel said:re Wealth tax.
It's probably a dumb question, but how would wealth be assessed so that a wealth tax can be levied? I understand that if I sell my shares, its easy to calculate the gain, but how would unsold (and indeed never traded) shares be valued?
Maybe it does have some merit after all...
0 -
If anyone's interested in following the weather for next week from people who know their onions then I recommend the NetWeather community model output discussion:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92866-model-output-discussion-winter-has-arrived-and-the-hunt-for-cold-is-on/page/10/?tab=comments#comment-4106538
Everyone on there getting a little bit excited (they're snow lovers!)0 -
Cough channel 4 focus groups coughCorrectHorseBattery said:
Actually polls a few months back said Labour Leavers ranked it very low on their priority list. I guess we will see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key is London - very different in the northegg said:The London Poll
“Among the four in 10 Londoners who backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum, Labour support has risen sharply from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. That will alarm senior Tories as it suggests Brexit is becoming less of a priority for Leave voters as the election campaign goes on.”
Who on PB is surprised? OGH has been saying for years Brexit is not a big priority for Labour voters. If this turns out to be key in final result OGH often told us.0 -
These amateur weather forecasting types get excited a lot, and often criticise the Met Office for underplaying risk. Almost always the Met Office is right.Mysticrose said:If anyone's interested in following the weather for next week from people who know their onions then I recommend the NetWeather community model output discussion:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92866-model-output-discussion-winter-has-arrived-and-the-hunt-for-cold-is-on/page/10/?tab=comments#comment-4106538
Everyone on there getting a little bit excited (they're snow lovers!)
0 -
Lady Nugee versus Sir Keir Starmer. Labour well placed to take on the establishment.egg said:Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.0 -
A lot more of usCorrectHorseBattery said:
As are those of us who are anti Johnson.Floater said:
Those of us who are anti Corbyn will move heaven and hell to vote to make sure he gets nowhere near powerAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I live in an extremely rural area, polling station is <1 mile. It would have to be a Beast From The East to prevent people getting there. Even then, one of my neighbours has a tractor and trailer, so he'd give me a lift. </p>Andy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
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You really are rather explosive!wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
It was an intrigued question. If areas are cut off, what happens? Perhaps someone who isn't just a TTT (tub-thumping-tory) could answer. What would it take to force a postponement? Or is the answer, simply nothing? If, for instance, the MetO were to issue Red Warnings, which means imminent danger to life, what could happen?
If it makes you feel calmer about this dyed in the wool just treat it as a series of curious questions. I'm intrigued. No agenda. In fact, I'll tell you now that I happen to think it would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, for reasons that I'm not going to divulge.0 -
"Going down with the Spireites"RobinWiggs said:
I’m shocked @Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
As a fellow North Walian you should be following Wrexham’s crunch match at the foot of the conference table. Currently 2-nil up away at Eastleigh.0 -
Oh yeah.....Floater said:
A lot more of usCorrectHorseBattery said:
As are those of us who are anti Johnson.Floater said:
Those of us who are anti Corbyn will move heaven and hell to vote to make sure he gets nowhere near powerAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I live in an extremely rural area, polling station is <1 mile. It would have to be a Beast From The East to prevent people getting there. Even then, one of my neighbours has a tractor and trailer, so he'd give me a lift. </p>Andy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
0 -
I don't disagree with that.Time_to_Leave said:
These amateur weather forecasting types get excited a lot, and often criticise the Met Office for underplaying risk. Almost always the Met Office is right.Mysticrose said:If anyone's interested in following the weather for next week from people who know their onions then I recommend the NetWeather community model output discussion:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92866-model-output-discussion-winter-has-arrived-and-the-hunt-for-cold-is-on/page/10/?tab=comments#comment-4106538
Everyone on there getting a little bit excited (they're snow lovers!)
Still a good place to get a sense of what may be happening. And good for links.0 -
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
On the Labour leadership front, a majority of members are Londoners and a majority of London members are muslims.egg said:Betting Post. And maybe thread behind due to escaped rhinoceros on the line at the junction.
Rebecca Long-Bailey has had a good election, one of the few politicians whose reputation has gone up not down in this election. But at the same time she has convinced she can’t possibly become labour leader when Corbyn stands down on Friday 13th. So she is not the value bet. For explanation need to look to what happens to parties when they just leave power after election and when they have lost 4 on the trot. lose after a period of government a party will retreat to its base.
Also need to consider how Brexit plays in the Labour leadership election early next year, because the backdrop is Boris with a majority and quickly having his wicked Brexit way on the nation. Remainers will feel frustrated. And the bottom line is RLB is pro leave. At very least She is pro compromise with the Brexit situation Labour government will inherit, whereas the labour leadership electors will be blood spitting remain and labour leave blood will run the gutters like the St Bartholomews Day massacre. RLB is not the value bet. The value bet is Emily Thornberry. If Thornberry wants it and stands, she is shoe in. Its her’s for the sake of standing.
Ironically, considering he roughly sacked her, Emilys first appointment will be Ed Milliband as her Willie.
Affiliates like Momentum matter, but I would expect that the next Labour leader will be again a London Socialist with good relations with the muslim tribal leaders.0 -
Naught but Corbynista Propaganda!Mysticrose said:
Yeah they're just based on meaningless algorithms. Like Apps: useless.Sunil_Prasannan said:
BBC says 13th will be light rain and a gentle breeze:Mysticrose said:Projected lying snow depths for Friday next week. This is before the (apparent) snowstorm hits the southeast that day.
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
If you're interested in the BBC rather than their sources, which I've quoted direct to you (GFS, ECM, UKMO) then the BBC forecaster just now mentioned the switch to very cold weather next week.0 -
I don’t know, but your answer will be in either the FTPA or the CCA.Mysticrose said:
You really are rather explosive!wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
It was an intrigued question. If areas are cut off, what happens? Perhaps someone who isn't just a TTT (tub-thumping-tory) could answer. What would it take to force a postponement? Or is the answer, simply nothing? If, for instance, the MetO were to issue Red Warnings, which means imminent danger to life, what could happen?
If it makes you feel calmer about this dyed in the wool just treat it as a series of curious questions. I'm intrigued. No agenda. In fact, I'll tell you now that I happen to think it would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, for reasons that I'm not going to divulge.
If nothing else, for a real emergency (tightly defined in CCA) the PM can pass legislation without Parliament (but it relies on Parliament considering as soon as it can and I don’t recall whether the Act is silent on an election period).
0 -
Polls polls bigger polls and polling
The key to this election from here is the number of Remainers voting for Boris (because they always vote conservative) the number of traditional Labour voters voting for Boris (because they are convinced things get better once we severe all ties with EU and stop the EU draining our finances and holding back our growth). The Eggling is designed to spotlight that particular equation amongst this polling.
And how I am doing it is simple, for much of summer and autumn this year the combination for Tory + BREX has been 46 and above that means they are clearly winning and healthy Boris majority even landslide, they will have to drop to 41 or in the thirties consistently to indicate it may be anything than a Boris majority. On the basis of what second ref tactical voting is available to spoil the party, Lab Libdem Green need to reach 52 or above consistently to indicate a good tactical voting day. At the very least, in betting sense The Eggling can trace a trend if any up to polling day to help inform bet of tv on PV
Currently there is no trend, leave holding 46 or 45 remain stuck in the late 40s
I Eggling the Kantor
Con + BXP 46 – spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib Green 50 – 2 short of causing much tv damage
And Yougov 3rd Dec
Con and bxp 46 - spot on for big Boris majority
Lab Lib green 49 - 3 short of causing much tv damage
If today’s Yougov shows no movement have to expect tomorrow’s to show little change too, eh?
0 -
Ooh me postal has arrived.
P-o-w-e-r.0 -
OT I liked Kamala Harris and thought she was a good candidate. Pity she couldn’t get traction0
-
Thank you!Time_to_Leave said:
I don’t know, but your answer will be in either the FTPA or the CCA.Mysticrose said:
You really are rather explosive!wooliedyed said:
Exactly. Talk of cancelled elections is childish nonsenseAndy_JS said:Even in rural areas the vast majority of voters live within a very short distance of their nearest polling station.
It was an intrigued question. If areas are cut off, what happens? Perhaps someone who isn't just a TTT (tub-thumping-tory) could answer. What would it take to force a postponement? Or is the answer, simply nothing? If, for instance, the MetO were to issue Red Warnings, which means imminent danger to life, what could happen?
If it makes you feel calmer about this dyed in the wool just treat it as a series of curious questions. I'm intrigued. No agenda. In fact, I'll tell you now that I happen to think it would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, for reasons that I'm not going to divulge.
If nothing else, for a real emergency (tightly defined in CCA) the PM can pass legislation without Parliament (but it relies on Parliament considering as soon as it can and I don’t recall whether the Act is silent on an election period).
As I say, I'm pretty sure it would hurt Labour more so I have no agenda here.0 -
Eh your still spinning for Amazon prime which costs 8 gbp a month FTRBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Just filled in my postal vote, will send it tomorrow on the way to work!1
-
But as I said, I'm pretty sure it would hurt Labour more. I don't really want to go into reasons.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Naught but Corbynista Propaganda!Mysticrose said:
Yeah they're just based on meaningless algorithms. Like Apps: useless.Sunil_Prasannan said:
BBC says 13th will be light rain and a gentle breeze:Mysticrose said:Projected lying snow depths for Friday next week. This is before the (apparent) snowstorm hits the southeast that day.
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
If you're interested in the BBC rather than their sources, which I've quoted direct to you (GFS, ECM, UKMO) then the BBC forecaster just now mentioned the switch to very cold weather next week.0 -
In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0 -
In 2017 over half of all votes received by the Lib Dems were in our top 90 seats - in most of which Labour were nowhere so there'd be no point switching to them now. The other half of Lib Dem votes were thinly spread over the remaining 540 seats - in many cases hitting just 1 or 2% vote share (or even below 1% in some cases) so I can't really see Labour eating into such diehard Lib Dem core voters as that!CorrectHorseBattery said:Could we end up in a situation where the Lib Dems do worse than in 2017 in terms of voteshare?
I seriously wonder if in the next few days we will see a total collapse in their vote, as it becomes Labour is the choice for most.
Of course it's possible that the Lib Dem vote share could drop below the 7.38% that we scored last time if we make no progress on 2017 and you take into account the seats in which we are standing aside for Green, Plaid, Independents etc... But to do worse than 2017, on average, in the seats in which we are standing seems very unlikely to me.
Please note - this is not me claiming that we'll have a great night... we won't... but I'll find a hat to eat if we drop below 7% on the night.1 -
Righty-ho, my last comment on the weather for now (promise). Here again are the projected lying snow depths:
https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_12/68539D90-EA8E-4ECC-9C61-04B86A51B039.jpeg.fe357f6ffd20c0cff13d041de085e23b.jpeg
0 -
If AMAZON get the football yiu wont be paying 79 quid for itBig_G_NorthWales said:
Yes it was my mistake. It is not free if you want to watch it standalone and the annual fee is £79. However most people who use Amazon contribute to prime for the films and delivery service so it is not charged to themFloater said:
Ask him - he might think he is not paying extra for itJBriskinindyref2 said:Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad
Yes - but why was Big G trying to spin that amazon prime is free???Floater said:
I think your ok if its the wife - they do allow multiple devicesbigjohnowls said:
Wife says Amazon encourage her to "share with your family"Floater said:
Not a great idea to admit that John......bigjohnowls said:
Amazon Prime is not free unless your using someone elses like me.Big_G_NorthWales said:Watching Burnley v City live on amazon prime video on my mobile and tablet
This is free and could be a big threat to Sky and BT
See - capitalism isn't all bad0 -
Couldn't find a black pen in my flat, had to ask the woman living in the flat above for one. She asked if it was for my postal vote.
1 -
It is in lab , Con, SNP interest to run lib dem into the ground they are almost working together, even on here so we will continue to see a coordinated attack by all three.CorrectHorseBattery said:Could we end up in a situation where the Lib Dems do worse than in 2017 in terms of voteshare?
I seriously wonder if in the next few days we will see a total collapse in their vote, as it becomes Labour is the choice for most.0 -
The other thing is the Green vote, in YG it's what 4%? No chance that's the result on the day.
I'd say the split is somewhere between 5-10 points, which seems fair.0 -
Depends on how highly those little old ladies of 50+ are motivated.speedy2 said:
That is true, also true is that the Conservative vote is highly concentrated with those over the age of 50, a lot of little old ladies who won't like it to go out in the snow and ice.
But it's too early to say about the weather, we will know by Sunday.
When the pensioners free bus pass came in, I was amazed to see really elderly & infirm people, people I'd have offered my seat to, climbing up to the top deck on buses.
Good evening, everyone.
0 -
Plus Christmas parties. I know more than one person who’s voting by post because they are out on the 12th (and presumably too lazy to go before work).nico67 said:In 2017 postal votes ended up counting as 21% of votes cast . It’s likely to be higher this time as more people might have been concerned over weather issues .
0
