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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the fight for the Democratic nomination Biden leads the bet

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the fight for the Democratic nomination Biden leads the betting with Buttigieg now not far behind

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    edited November 2019
    First!
    Like Swinson
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    Foxy said:

    First!
    Like Swinson

    Who’s Swinson?
  • Go Pete!
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Is Harris basically the walking dead at this stage?
  • Blurst! Like Mayor Pete!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Foxy said:

    First!
    Like Swinson

    I like Alternate History too :-)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Foxy said:

    First!
    Like Swinson

    Hopefully Lindems and Greens can get a bounce by taking Labour votes. 😊
  • A Pete POTUS win will be my all time outstanding bet by a country mile.

    Are we in for another stunning surprise in politics?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Just up on the BBC News website:


    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?

    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News

    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.

    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.

    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.

    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.
  • Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    First!
    Like Swinson

    Who’s Swinson?
    She was the future once I believe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Just up on the BBC News website:


    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?

    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News

    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.

    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.

    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.

    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.

    Useless buggers.
    Don’t even know it's ‘different from.’
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Just up on the BBC News website:


    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?

    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News

    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.

    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.

    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.

    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.

    But wearing a fake suicide vest and links to Islamic terrorism....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?
  • Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,834

    Is Harris basically the walking dead at this stage?

    I have no idea why she is still running.
  • Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    What does that mean?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    I predict most of the polls will be around 42/32 again.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Just up on the BBC News website:


    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?

    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News

    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.

    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.

    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.

    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.

    Sky News reporting that the attacker was known to police and had links to Islamist terror groups, according to a security source. Then repeating the details reported in The Times: attacker apparently a convicted terrorist, recently released from prison and wearing an electronic tag.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"
  • Has Biden's team been circulating letters from Mike?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,834
    Trump's base is exactly 53% of people who Identify as Republican plus 22% of independents.

    I can tell this because of science

    https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/1200493405832450049
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Just up on the BBC News website:


    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?

    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News

    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.

    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.

    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.

    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.

    Sky News reporting that the attacker was known to police and had links to Islamist terror groups, according to a security source. Then repeating the details reported in The Times: attacker apparently a convicted terrorist, recently released from prison and wearing an electronic tag.
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1200540706407882755
  • speedy2 said:

    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"

    Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.

    Go figure.
  • The Britain Elects poll tracker now has:

    CON: 42.4% (+0.1)
    LAB: 30.9% (+1.1)
    LDEM: 14.3% (-0.3)
    BREX: 3.9% (-0.5)
    GRN: 3.2% (-0.2)

    Chgs. w/ 25 Nov
    https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/iNIJsy8ssG
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    #MegaPollingSaturday will be Peak Labour. #bringit !!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,821
    edited November 2019

    Just up on the BBC News website:
    A different type of incident to the 2017 London Bridge attack?
    Gordon Corera
    Security correspondent, BBC News
    Initially this looked very similar to that attack on London Bridge two years ago, in which civilians, innocent people appeared to be targeted at the bridge and Borough Market.
    But as the day has gone on our picture has evolved somewhat as to what might have happened today.
    The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.
    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened.

    There was no intelligence, not advanced warning that anything like this could've happened, although there will be questions about it.

    It makes no sense for it to have been at the Fishmongers. No one would know what was happening in there. Plenty of bars around with certain targets.
    Sounds more like a personal vendetta accompanied by terrorist MO eg suicide vest (fake). Plus giveaways (knife not taped, etc).
    Not to say it wasn't a terrorist action just that there's more to it than that.
  • Who makes up the market here? Is it brits, and if so how informed are they? I ask because, well, Clinton is rated more likely that people actually standing.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    What does that mean?
    Your lot will be ahead. As you have been predicting since you started posting here two weeks ago.

    But hopefully I will be wrong!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,485

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
    Don't worry Ave_it is just joshing.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    On the Democratic primary, don't forget the 15% delegate threshold.
    If a candidate gets less that 15% he gets no delegates, but what happens if no one gets 15% ? We might find out.
    Also in Iowa those who get less than 15% see their votes redistributed, it's like AV, for example if Warren gets less than 15% but Sanders get's over 15% her votes would probably count for Sanders, we should look at second preferences closely.
  • Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    What does that mean?
    Your lot will be ahead. As you have been predicting since you started posting here two weeks ago.

    But hopefully I will be wrong!
    I don't think I ever said Labour would be ahead...

    I have no doubt the Tories will be the the largest party
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    The Britain Elects poll tracker now has:

    CON: 42.4% (+0.1)
    LAB: 30.9% (+1.1)
    LDEM: 14.3% (-0.3)
    BREX: 3.9% (-0.5)
    GRN: 3.2% (-0.2)

    Chgs. w/ 25 Nov
    https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D https://t.co/iNIJsy8ssG

    Im waiting for the Barnsey and The Elbow.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure Johnson making campaign pledges on the evening of the attack is a good look . Very poor taste .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721
    "The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.
    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened."

    The meeting concerned "Learning Together," an initiative involving graduate criminology students from Cambridge studying together with students at HMP Grendon, which is a prison for B and C categories run as a group of "democratic therapeutic communities."

    What is the connection, I wonder.
  • London Bridge guy was wearing a tag. Newsnight confirming Times story
  • nico67 said:

    Not sure Johnson making campaign pledges on the evening of the attack is a good look . Very poor taste .

    He made these pledges some days ago as part of the manifesto
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,269
    Chris said:

    "The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.
    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened."

    The meeting concerned "Learning Together," an initiative involving graduate criminology students from Cambridge studying together with students at HMP Grendon, which is a prison for B and C categories run as a group of "democratic therapeutic communities."

    What is the connection, I wonder.

    What the hell is a “democratic therapeutic community”??
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    #MegaPollingSaturday will be Peak Labour. #bringit !!!
    I seem to recall your predicting in an earlier thread that Labour would peak soon and then their numbers would start to fall again. Why?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Labour should be able to make the attack a problem with the cuts
  • I really don't think parties should try to make political capital out of this to be honest. It could have happened to any Government.
  • speedy2 said:

    On the Democratic primary, don't forget the 15% delegate threshold.
    If a candidate gets less that 15% he gets no delegates, but what happens if no one gets 15% ? We might find out.
    Also in Iowa those who get less than 15% see their votes redistributed, it's like AV, for example if Warren gets less than 15% but Sanders get's over 15% her votes would probably count for Sanders, we should look at second preferences closely.

    Is that right? I am happy to be shot down, but I thought Iowa is famously a caucus thing, whereby people in a meeting room gravitate to each corner depending on their candidate preference and then there is another vote and gravitation in a series of rounds.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Not sure Johnson making campaign pledges on the evening of the attack is a good look . Very poor taste .

    He made these pledges some days ago as part of the manifesto
    Why is he repeating them on the evening of the attack when allegedly campaigning had been suspended and he was supposed to be just addressing today’s attack . Very poor .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721

    Chris said:

    "The incident started at Fishmongers' Hall where there was a criminal justice research meeting taking place.
    The person believed to be responsible is, we understand, thought to be a former prisoner. And I've been told there is a connection with that event in terms of what's happened."

    The meeting concerned "Learning Together," an initiative involving graduate criminology students from Cambridge studying together with students at HMP Grendon, which is a prison for B and C categories run as a group of "democratic therapeutic communities."

    What is the connection, I wonder.

    What the hell is a “democratic therapeutic community”??
    According to Wikipedia, they "provide group-based therapy within a social climate which promotes positive relationships, personal responsibility and social participation. Therapeutic Communities address a range of offender needs including interpersonal relationships, emotional regulation, self-management and psychological wellbeing."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HM_Prison_Grendon
  • I really don't think parties should try to make political capital out of this to be honest. It could have happened to any Government.

    Good post and I agree with you
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    What does that mean?
    Your lot will be ahead. As you have been predicting since you started posting here two weeks ago.

    But hopefully I will be wrong!
    I don't think I ever said Labour would be ahead...

    I have no doubt the Tories will be the the largest party
    I think CON and Swinson will be fighting for 4th place. In Dunbartonshire E. Boris will be focussing on ice statues
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813

    I really don't think parties should try to make political capital out of this to be honest. It could have happened to any Government.

    Nothing has happened to any government today. It happened to two innocent bystanders.
  • "Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early."

    Really think this is in quite poor taste if I am honest
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    speedy2 said:

    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"

    Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.

    Go figure.
    If Buttigieg becomes the nominee I expect Trump to lose by a landslide in N.England but still win reelection because minorities hate Buttigieg.
    Anyway there is no part of the democratic coalition that any of the candidates wouldn't alienate, the key is who would alienate the smallest segment while gaining the most from the other party.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
    I know what you are saying Big G, Ave It is a bit like that ghost you keep forgetting lives in the cupboard where you keep the tea bags. You put the kettle on. A digestive out the tin. And 👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure Johnson making campaign pledges on the evening of the attack is a good look . Very poor taste .

    He made these pledges some days ago as part of the manifesto
    Why is he repeating them on the evening of the attack when allegedly campaigning had been suspended and he was supposed to be just addressing today’s attack . Very poor .
    To be honest I have not heard Boris this evening
  • DM:

    London Bridge attacker was an Islamic extremist released from jail a year ago and 'still wearing an ELECTRONIC TAG': Killer broke free from a nearby prison rehabilitation event to go on the rampage that left two dead - before police shot him dead
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure Johnson making campaign pledges on the evening of the attack is a good look . Very poor taste .

    He made these pledges some days ago as part of the manifesto
    Why is he repeating them on the evening of the attack when allegedly campaigning had been suspended and he was supposed to be just addressing today’s attack . Very poor .
    To be honest I have not heard Boris this evening
    "Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early."

    As per BBC. I don't like these kinds of comments at all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668

    London Bridge guy was wearing a tag. Newsnight confirming Times story

    Who is in charge of the probation service at present?

    Is it still Capita with the monitoring contract?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,639
    edited November 2019
    "PM calls for 'appropriate sentences for terrorists'
    Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early.
    "It is very important that we get out of that habit and that we enforce the appropriate sentences for dangerous criminals, especially for terrorists, that I think the public will want to see.""
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-50601491
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721

    I really don't think parties should try to make political capital out of this to be honest. It could have happened to any Government.

    Nothing has happened to any government today. It happened to two innocent bystanders.
    Absolutely!
  • egg said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
    I know what you are saying Big G, Ave It is a bit like that ghost you keep forgetting lives in the cupboard where you keep the tea bags. You put the kettle on. A digestive out the tin. And 👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻
    Good to have a bit of light relief !!!!
  • Andy_JS said:

    "PM calls for 'appropriate sentences for terrorists'
    Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early.
    "It is very important that we get out of that habit and that we enforce the appropriate sentences for dangerous criminals, especially for terrorists, that I think the public will want to see.""
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-50601491

    I'm really not very pleased with that if I am honest, this really is not the time for it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    edited November 2019
    egg said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
    I know what you are saying Big G, Ave It is a bit like that ghost you keep forgetting lives in the cupboard where you keep the tea bags. You put the kettle on. A digestive out the tin. And 👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻
    Pause.
    So.
    You have a ghost.
    In your cupboard.
    And you keep teabags there.
    Thinks.
    Nope. Nothing crazy there. No, siree.... :)
  • Now that sums up Goodall again. The man is a labour plant in Sky news
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited November 2019

    speedy2 said:

    On the Democratic primary, don't forget the 15% delegate threshold.
    If a candidate gets less that 15% he gets no delegates, but what happens if no one gets 15% ? We might find out.
    Also in Iowa those who get less than 15% see their votes redistributed, it's like AV, for example if Warren gets less than 15% but Sanders get's over 15% her votes would probably count for Sanders, we should look at second preferences closely.

    Is that right? I am happy to be shot down, but I thought Iowa is famously a caucus thing, whereby people in a meeting room gravitate to each corner depending on their candidate preference and then there is another vote and gravitation in a series of rounds.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
    " At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are viable. Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the viability threshold is 15% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to realign: the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This realignment is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's second candidate of choice can help a candidate. "
    The TV networks report the result of the Iowa caucus by share of delegates.
  • Foxy said:

    London Bridge guy was wearing a tag. Newsnight confirming Times story

    Who is in charge of the probation service at present?

    Is it still Capita with the monitoring contract?
    Dunno. But Chris fucking Grayling was the minister in charge at the time.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721

    DM:

    London Bridge attacker was an Islamic extremist released from jail a year ago and 'still wearing an ELECTRONIC TAG': Killer broke free from a nearby prison rehabilitation event to go on the rampage that left two dead - before police shot him dead

    Interesting. If he was a prisoner from HMP Grendon, presumably not convicted of a terrorist offence.

    But where did the fake suicide vest/bomb belt come from in this scenario?
  • Now that sums up Goodall again. The man is a labour plant in Sky news
    Not pleased with Goodall there either
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    egg said:

    Ave_it said:

    Looks like LAB biggest party per megapollingsaturday4 ?

    And where did you hear that
    I know what you are saying Big G, Ave It is a bit like that ghost you keep forgetting lives in the cupboard where you keep the tea bags. You put the kettle on. A digestive out the tin. And 👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻
    Good to have a bit of light relief !!!!
    I prefer coffee now. Shaken not stirred.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "PM calls for 'appropriate sentences for terrorists'
    Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early.
    "It is very important that we get out of that habit and that we enforce the appropriate sentences for dangerous criminals, especially for terrorists, that I think the public will want to see.""
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-50601491

    I'm really not very pleased with that if I am honest, this really is not the time for it
    Agreed. Boris should wait for all the facts to be established before wading in with solutions. He's opening himself up to charges of opportunism.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030
    Has Mike said anything about his LibDem letters? It's a reasonable tactic in seats that MRP shows the LibDems are running second (or even tied second), but I can't believe he thinks it's okay to send such letters out in places like Warrington South.
  • nunu2 said:

    Labour should be able to make the attack a problem with the cuts

    I’m not sure a pacifist terrorist sympathising leader of the opposition can really assure voters that he is the safer bet on national security and protecting the public . Friend of Hamas And Hezbollah vs Boris who promises to increase sentences increase police numbers , I know who I would feel safer voting for !
  • Whether one likes it or not, if the reports are correct and the murderer is confirmed to be a tagged ex-prisoner on early release who had been in prison for terrorism-related offences, that is political dynamite, with very uncertain implications.
  • Now that sums up Goodall again. The man is a labour plant in Sky news
    Not pleased with Goodall there either
    Why? Seems an obvious point that a tag-wearing con who commits major crime is a justice ministry and therefore government issue.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721
    From the same event in Fishmongers' Hall?
  • Whether one likes it or not, if the reports are correct and the murderer is confirmed to be a tagged ex-prisoner on early release who had been in prison for terrorism-related offences, that is political dynamite, with very uncertain implications.

    Events, dear boy events...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813

    Whether one likes it or not, if the reports are correct and the murderer is confirmed to be a tagged ex-prisoner on early release who had been in prison for terrorism-related offences, that is political dynamite, with very uncertain implications.

    A rather unfortunate turn of phrase.
  • Chris said:

    From the same event in Fishmongers' Hall?
    Presumably.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,400
    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"

    Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.

    Go figure.
    If Buttigieg becomes the nominee I expect Trump to lose by a landslide in N.England but still win reelection because minorities hate Buttigieg.
    Anyway there is no part of the democratic coalition that any of the candidates wouldn't alienate, the key is who would alienate the smallest segment while gaining the most from the other party.
    Most of the battleground states are really white, though. (Except Arizona and Pennsylvania.) The ones with significant minority populations are either safe Democrat (like California), or safe Republican (like the deep South).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I don’t think this story will go the way Lewis Goodall wants it to...
  • Not sure Corbyn is the man to lecture the government on terrorism related issues
  • Foxy said:

    London Bridge guy was wearing a tag. Newsnight confirming Times story

    Who is in charge of the probation service at present?

    Is it still Capita with the monitoring contract?
    Robert Buckland is the Cabinet Minister with responsibility. Difficulties with the probation service have been in the news in recent months.
    A single case, though. No system can ever be perfect.
  • kjohnw1 said:

    Not sure Corbyn is the man to lecture the government on terrorism related issues

    Dunno. He seems to have met more of them than most people.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668

    Foxy said:

    London Bridge guy was wearing a tag. Newsnight confirming Times story

    Who is in charge of the probation service at present?

    Is it still Capita with the monitoring contract?
    Dunno. But Chris fucking Grayling was the minister in charge at the time.
    Looking it up, Gauke brought it back under government control earlier in the year, then was replaced by Buckland*after the Johnson purge. I think the serious offenders were always under the government probation service.
    Spending on Justice needs to include probation and other services, not just police numbers.
    *South Swindon, Lab 7/1
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    The Mail front page claims one of the heroes is an ex-con. As suggested on here, could be someone who followed him out of this therapy event or whatever it's called. Or could just be a coincidence - there are 10+ million people in London so the odds on a convicted criminal happening to be nearby are not that long.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1200548516030013440

    Labour plans curiously close to those of Greece :worried:

    Does this estimate take into account the £400bn for the state bank, the £250bn for the investment fund, the £58bn WASPI bribe, and the unknown sum (£150bn? £200bn) for the re-nationalisation programme?
  • Yes, I thought that was odd. Are there usually a load of ex-criminals wandering across London Bridge on a Friday lunchtime?
  • If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe

    Boris/Patel

    Corbyn/Abbott

    I can only see one winner
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190

    DM:

    London Bridge attacker was an Islamic extremist released from jail a year ago and 'still wearing an ELECTRONIC TAG': Killer broke free from a nearby prison rehabilitation event to go on the rampage that left two dead - before police shot him dead

    Hang on: before rushing to blame people, think about this for a minute. If he had a tag and was meant to be at this meeting then there would have been no red flag raised by him being in Central London in the middle of the day at the place where he was supposed to be. Knives are easy enough to get hold of. So how could the police have known that there was any risk?
    Should he have been released? A different question. We don’t know what he was convicted for nor for how long.
    This could be embarrassing for the authorities or the government or even those parties opposing Prevent, the deradicalisation programme. But until we have more facts, we really don’t know.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    edited November 2019
    https://twitter.com/theamycoop/status/1200513388889223169
    I was wondering what the white pole visible in the videos was.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721

    The Mail front page claims one of the heroes is an ex-con. As suggested on here, could be someone who followed him out of this therapy event or whatever it's called. Or could just be a coincidence - there are 10+ million people in London so the odds on a convicted criminal happening to be nearby are not that long.
    Though the media immediately being aware of it is perhaps less likely.
  • This is 2017 GE all over again.....
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"

    Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.

    Go figure.
    If Buttigieg becomes the nominee I expect Trump to lose by a landslide in N.England but still win reelection because minorities hate Buttigieg.
    Anyway there is no part of the democratic coalition that any of the candidates wouldn't alienate, the key is who would alienate the smallest segment while gaining the most from the other party.
    Most of the battleground states are really white, though. (Except Arizona and Pennsylvania.) The ones with significant minority populations are either safe Democrat (like California), or safe Republican (like the deep South).
    Democrats need a surge of minority support in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta and in the N.C. black belt.
    They could counter it by getting more whites, but Buttigieg is popular only to the milk and toast segment of whites, that's why he does so badly in the swing state polls against Trump with the exception of N.Hampshire.
    On 2012 terms if Biden is Romney, Buttigieg is Santorum.
  • Cyclefree said:

    DM:

    London Bridge attacker was an Islamic extremist released from jail a year ago and 'still wearing an ELECTRONIC TAG': Killer broke free from a nearby prison rehabilitation event to go on the rampage that left two dead - before police shot him dead

    Hang on: before rushing to blame people, think about this for a minute. If he had a tag and was meant to be at this meeting then there would have been no red flag raised by him being in Central London in the middle of the day at the place where he was supposed to be. Knives are easy enough to get hold of. So how could the police have known that there was any risk?
    Should he have been released? A different question. We don’t know what he was convicted for nor for how long.
    This could be embarrassing for the authorities or the government or even those parties opposing Prevent, the deradicalisation programme. But until we have more facts, we really don’t know.
    Sensible as ever Cyclefree
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,721

    If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe

    Boris/Patel

    Corbyn/Abbott

    I can only see one winner

    Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
  • If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe

    Boris/Patel

    Corbyn/Abbott

    I can only see one winner

    They all look equally crap to me.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,824
    I'm with Jeremy on this - Shipman's preoccupation with process and who's up/who's down is an example of what's wrong with our media.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    "Speaking before the government's emergency Cobra meeting a little earlier, Boris Johnson said: "I have long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early."

    Really think this is in quite poor taste if I am honest

    I'm sure you'll say the same after Corbyn blames the government.....
  • Cyclefree said:

    DM:

    London Bridge attacker was an Islamic extremist released from jail a year ago and 'still wearing an ELECTRONIC TAG': Killer broke free from a nearby prison rehabilitation event to go on the rampage that left two dead - before police shot him dead

    Hang on: before rushing to blame people, think about this for a minute. If he had a tag and was meant to be at this meeting then there would have been no red flag raised by him being in Central London in the middle of the day at the place where he was supposed to be. Knives are easy enough to get hold of. So how could the police have known that there was any risk?
    Should he have been released? A different question. We don’t know what he was convicted for nor for how long.
    This could be embarrassing for the authorities or the government or even those parties opposing Prevent, the deradicalisation programme. But until we have more facts, we really don’t know.
    Sensible as ever Cyclefree
    "broke free" in this headline is holding a lot of weight.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,834
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Buttigieg flavour of the month.
    It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.

    They are like:
    "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"

    Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.

    Go figure.
    If Buttigieg becomes the nominee I expect Trump to lose by a landslide in N.England but still win reelection because minorities hate Buttigieg.
    Anyway there is no part of the democratic coalition that any of the candidates wouldn't alienate, the key is who would alienate the smallest segment while gaining the most from the other party.
    Most of the battleground states are really white, though. (Except Arizona and Pennsylvania.) The ones with significant minority populations are either safe Democrat (like California), or safe Republican (like the deep South).
    Michigan has 13% African American population. If they had turned out at Obama 2012 rates Trump loses Michigan.
    That's repeated across the rust belt.
    Wisconsin only had a 6% black population, but if they turned out at 2012 levels Trump goes home.
  • Chris said:

    If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe

    Boris/Patel

    Corbyn/Abbott

    I can only see one winner

    Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
    Others are trying to make it political

    Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
This discussion has been closed.