If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe Boris/Patel Corbyn/Abbott I can only see one winner
The Tories have been in charge for nine years. If people feel that the system got this wrong then they might want to change who is in charge of it. I think that the fact that it was fellow ex-prisoners chasing after him means that is unlikely. They're evidence of the system working.
Whatever this was it was not a bog standard terrorist attack. Whatever that is. No terrorist just goes into the Fishmongers Hall on the off chance that there will be some victims. No one knows what the hell that building is. I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
When the same question was asked in 2017 with May/Rudd as the other duo, the answer was Corbyn/Abbott according to polling movements. People had lost confidence in the government to protect them back then.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
When the same question was asked in 2017 with May/Rudd as the other duo, the answer was Corbyn/Abbott according to polling movements. People had lost confidence in the government to protect them back then.
Do you have any data for that? I would think Boris beats Corbyn hands down on both terrorism and criminal justice...
Just don’t let any of these cunts out of jail, ever. How hard is that?
Do you mean the knifeman or the one who tackled him?
I mean known Islamists
We should do what the Israelis do: literally bury them underground. They have special prisons under the desert where they entomb terrorists in windowless cells 100m beneath the surface. I’ve seen the buildings. Terrifying.
That may be, but all the events are going against the Tories / Tories making a right hash of things, before the terrible event of today.
We hear this about campaigns time and time again. 9/10 election campaigns make **** all difference in the end. 2017 was the exception but I just don't think this campaign is going to end up the same.
I think Con win with something like 30-40 seat majority as I've said all the way along.
Whatever this was it was not a bog standard terrorist attack. Whatever that is. No terrorist just goes into the Fishmongers Hall on the off chance that there will be some victims. No one knows what the hell that building is. I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
Yes. You wouldn't be surprised if there was an element of a personal vendetta against someone at the event.
As I have said before, the worst criminals should be housed in prisons in a friendly commonwealth country in sub-saharan Africa, which will save a fortune, help to develop said country's economy, and mean they can be detained for as long as necessary.
Buttigieg flavour of the month. It's like 2012 but Biden plays Romney, democrats don't like him and jump from one alternative to the other.
They are like: "Hmm I don't like Biden he is too conservative, too old, and out of touch. Maybe this one would be better, nope ok next one on the list"
Yet Iowa which is the ultimate retail, face-to-face politics, seems to like the young mayor.
Go figure.
If Buttigieg becomes the nominee I expect Trump to lose by a landslide in N.England but still win reelection because minorities hate Buttigieg. Anyway there is no part of the democratic coalition that any of the candidates wouldn't alienate, the key is who would alienate the smallest segment while gaining the most from the other party.
Most of the battleground states are really white, though. (Except Arizona and Pennsylvania.) The ones with significant minority populations are either safe Democrat (like California), or safe Republican (like the deep South).
Michigan has 13% African American population. If they had turned out at Obama 2012 rates Trump loses Michigan. That's repeated across the rust belt. Wisconsin only had a 6% black population, but if they turned out at 2012 levels Trump goes home.
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota are all very white. Michigan is more mixed. However, I suspect that when Obama comes out swinging for Buttigieg (if he is the nominee), then all these concerns will disappear.
It's a fair point for all I've said things like mr cliffs. Humans arent automatons and a lot of politics is irrational even in places which are better at looking at substance.
As I have said before, the worst criminals should be housed in prisons in a friendly commonwealth country in sub-saharan Africa, which will save a fortune, help to develop said country's economy, and mean they can be detained for as long as necessary.
Whatever this was it was not a bog standard terrorist attack. Whatever that is. No terrorist just goes into the Fishmongers Hall on the off chance that there will be some victims. No one knows what the hell that building is. I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
Well, they might if they're invited there to a rehabilitation conference, complete with ankle tag. (Though I agree that hardly answers all of the questions)
And if some of the people who tackled the attacker are ex-cons, so what. They are still heroes and deserve praise and thanks.
I don't think anyone has said contrarywise. What they have said is that it makes the news that the attacker was an ex-con less significant, because it weakens the "throw away the key" argument.
If the bbc and itv are anything to go by the public anger is directed at the parole board and the Mayor. I’m sure more information will come out in the next 24 hours. I hope there will be no further fatalities.
As people with an interest in politics it is understandable to speculate how this might affect an election. It is a black swan event and hard to predict and really it may have a large influence on voters or it may have none at all.
Seems that at least one person was reformed by the theraputic community approach.
That is not really appropriate to be honest
An ex con turned hero? sounds positive to me.
The nuance in your statement was not that innocent imho
On the contrary, I have always favoured a more positive attitude to rehabilitation. It is fundamental to my Christian faith that people are redeemable.
Whatever this was it was not a bog standard terrorist attack. Whatever that is. No terrorist just goes into the Fishmongers Hall on the off chance that there will be some victims. No one knows what the hell that building is. I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
Well, they might if they're invited there to a rehabilitation conference, complete with ankle tag.
Whatever this was it was not a bog standard terrorist attack. Whatever that is. No terrorist just goes into the Fishmongers Hall on the off chance that there will be some victims. No one knows what the hell that building is. I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
Well, they might if they're invited there to a rehabilitation conference, complete with ankle tag.
There'll probably be a return of the bag searches when you enter a public building in London. They'd recently stopped a lot of them at places like the British Library. (Not complaining, just an observation).
If the bbc and itv are anything to go by the public anger is directed at the parole board and the Mayor. I’m sure more information will come out in the next 24 hours. I hope there will be no further fatalities.
As people with an interest in politics it is understandable to speculate how this might affect an election. It is a black swan event and hard to predict and really it may have a large influence on voters or it may have none at all.
The Mayor is not responsible for the probation service is he? that is the Ministry of Justice, surely.
I expect to see polls of the Tories leading by just 5% in the next few days.
That would probably only require Labour to get up from all these 34's we've been seeing in recent days to 36%. Perfectly plausible.
If I'm right to suspect that a substantial fraction of the Labour Leave switchers will let the Conservatives down, then a lead that low indicates a growing likelihood of another Hung Parliament. Even if Labour can't get all the way up to 40% again, it may very well be that the Tory polling number includes a lot of extra votes being stacked up in their defences as a result of the Brexit Party's partial stand down. Ought to make it easier for them to hold territory, but conversely the continued presence of BXP in those Leave marginals could make it harder for them to capture more ground. That, of course, depends on whom BXP are taking the votes from, and I have read the suggestion (via YouGov, I think, but I wouldn't swear to it) that BXP are hurting the Tories more than Labour.
If the Tories are to scrape home under such circumstances then it may be down to whether or not they can outperform expectations in Scotland.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
Posted our votes for Boris today. Bought our bi - lingual RNLI Christmas cards and Christmas stamps, bought Christmas cake, put up the Christmas tree, lights and decorated it and avoided the tv and politics as much as possible
Turned out a lovely day but of course very saddened by the attack in London
May everyone have a pleasant nights rest.
Tomorrow is another day and one less for this soap opera of an election to continue ( just 11campaign days left)
My gut says Buttegieg is peaking too early. It'll be someone else's turn to get momentum soon.
I’m very nervous of betting on US politics because it’s very hard to have a sense of what’s being said round the metaphorical water cooler and a sense of what Americans might want. Edit - but thank you to whoever first tipped this man because he’s come in miles.
Posted our votes for Boris today. Bought our bi - lingual RNLI Christmas cards and Christmas stamps, bought Christmas cake, put up the Christmas tree, lights and decorated it and avoided the tv and politics as much as possible
Turned out a lovely day but of course very saddened by the attack in London
May everyone have a pleasant nights rest.
Tomorrow is another day and one less for this soap opera of an election to continue ( just 11campaign days left)
Good night folks
Night Big_G. Sounds like Xmas has started in your house.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
Nothing; from what we know, the response appears to have been swift and efficient. The PM had no reason to start talking about police numbers.
Did the PM's statement about police numbers come before or after all the opposition politicians in that BBC debate this evening used the opportunity afforded by this attack to criticise the Government on... cuts to police numbers?
If the bbc and itv are anything to go by the public anger is directed at the parole board and the Mayor. I’m sure more information will come out in the next 24 hours. I hope there will be no further fatalities.
As people with an interest in politics it is understandable to speculate how this might affect an election. It is a black swan event and hard to predict and really it may have a large influence on voters or it may have none at all.
The Mayor is not responsible for the probation service is he? that is the Ministry of Justice, surely.
I think his previous comments have clearly come back to haunt him. I don’t actually think he’s that unpopular in London just other parts of the country. Technically a lot of terrorism has happened under his watch but it’s clearly not his fault just his actions and comments have been wide of the mark
On the subject of Buttigieg vs Trump, I think Buttigieg's big advantage is not that he wins any new votes for the Democrats, but he demotivates suburban Republicans. Here in the Los Angeles surburbs, I know a lot of Republicans. They mostly don't like Trump. But they'd go out and vote for him to avoid Sanders for sure. They'd probably go out and vote Trump to avoid Warren. They probably wouldn't worry so much about Buttigieg. And this matters, because Trump only has an approval rating of 43-44%. To win re-election he needs to find people who don't approve of him, but disapprove more of the Democrat.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
These events don’t generally change the game. Everyone expected the murder of Remainer Jo Cox by a mad Britain First guy to shift the referendum, not least coz they suspended campaigning for 3 days! Yet Leave still won
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
Posted our votes for Boris today. Bought our bi - lingual RNLI Christmas cards and Christmas stamps, bought Christmas cake, put up the Christmas tree, lights and decorated it and avoided the tv and politics as much as possible
Turned out a lovely day but of course very saddened by the attack in London
May everyone have a pleasant nights rest.
Tomorrow is another day and one less for this soap opera of an election to continue ( just 11campaign days left)
Good night folks
Night Big_G. Sounds like Xmas has started in your house.
Thanks and yes.
We need a distraction and the grandchildren will be round tomorrow to assist finishing the rest so to speak
Posted our votes for Boris today. Bought our bi - lingual RNLI Christmas cards and Christmas stamps, bought Christmas cake, put up the Christmas tree, lights and decorated it and avoided the tv and politics as much as possible
Turned out a lovely day but of course very saddened by the attack in London
May everyone have a pleasant nights rest.
Tomorrow is another day and one less for this soap opera of an election to continue ( just 11campaign days left)
Good night folks
GN Big G looks like you and me will be only people voting for Boris
Goodnight. Might be hiding for megapollingsaturday4
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
Nothing; from what we know, the response appears to have been swift and efficient. The PM had no reason to start talking about police numbers.
Did the PM's statement about police numbers come before or after all the opposition politicians in that BBC debate this evening used the opportunity afforded by this attack to criticise the Government on... cuts to police numbers?
Well, if they want to politicise it here is an obvious question for Corbyn.
In the past you have been reluctant to commit to allowing the police to shoot to kill.
Also re Buttigieg, I would also point out that he has the lowest disapproval rating (among Democrats) of any candidate. That doesn't speak to me of a candidate who's massively repelling large numbers of voters.
If it’s confirmed some ex cons tackled the terrorist then it’s quite complicated to then start trashing rehab programs . And if the two people killed were part of the rehab programme surely that adds another layer onto a complicated picture .
Finally Buttigieg post I've been long a long time, so am biased. But I have been banging his drum at prices from 25 to 6. At current prices he's no longer the clear value bet. I think Biden and Warren are better bets here. (Realistically, I think Biden is probably the most likely winner with - say - a 35% chance, then Warren at around 25%, then Buttigieg the same or a little less, and then there's a 15% chance or so of it being someone else.)
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
These events don’t generally change the game. Everyone expected the murder of Remainer Jo Cox by a mad Britain First guy to shift the referendum, not least coz they suspended campaigning for 3 days! Yet Leave still won
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
Also re Buttigieg, I would also point out that he has the lowest disapproval rating (among Democrats) of any candidate. That doesn't speak to me of a candidate who's massively repelling large numbers of voters.
Also re Buttigieg, I would also point out that he has the lowest disapproval rating (among Democrats) of any candidate. That doesn't speak to me of a candidate who's massively repelling large numbers of voters.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
These events don’t generally change the game. Everyone expected the murder of Remainer Jo Cox by a mad Britain First guy to shift the referendum, not least coz they suspended campaigning for 3 days! Yet Leave still won
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
You are right. This will play well for Boris
The Manchester Arena attack didn't have that effect in 2017. Indeed it focussed attention on Tory police cuts..
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
These events don’t generally change the game. Everyone expected the murder of Remainer Jo Cox by a mad Britain First guy to shift the referendum, not least coz they suspended campaigning for 3 days! Yet Leave still won
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
You are right. This will play well for Boris
Probably but not definitely. It is uncomfortable ground for Labour no doubt and different to the 2017 situation but Im not sure any specific polls discovered how it affected May last time round. We can probably say it isn’t what Labour want to be talking about but then if CCHQ felt comfortable with the campaign this will be a potential can of worms.
I do hope the campaign isn’t suspended for longer than a day, it certainly sends the wrong message against terrorism. Maybe 1 day to respect the victims would be appropriate and then back to business.
My gut says Buttegieg is peaking too early. It'll be someone else's turn to get momentum soon.
Who? Bloomberg? Nah. Patrick? Nah. I would point out that Gabbard has been rising in the Iowa and - even more so - New Hampshire polls, so it's not impossible she gets a bit of 'mo. Her unfavourables are through the roof, mind, so hard to see her winning the Presidential nomination, but you could easily see her get to a level where she's one of four or five Democrats to win delegates in Iowa. The other possibility is Klobouchar. She's also been on a slow upward trend in Iowa. Her ground game there is OK, as she's from nearby Minnesota. She's qualified for the December debate too. As far as trading bets go, those are the two I'd go for.
If the bbc and itv are anything to go by the public anger is directed at the parole board and the Mayor. I’m sure more information will come out in the next 24 hours. I hope there will be no further fatalities.
As people with an interest in politics it is understandable to speculate how this might affect an election. It is a black swan event and hard to predict and really it may have a large influence on voters or it may have none at all.
The Mayor is not responsible for the probation service is he? that is the Ministry of Justice, surely.
I think his previous comments have clearly come back to haunt him. I don’t actually think he’s that unpopular in London just other parts of the country. Technically a lot of terrorism has happened under his watch but it’s clearly not his fault just his actions and comments have been wide of the mark
This has happened on Khan's watch...again. Trump will call him out for this failure during his forthcoming visit.
Trump certainly creates lots of jobs for attorneys and prison guards! Mayor Pete is a bit policy light for me, but that seems to be the modern way. If you don't have any policies, nothing to find fault with.
Also re Buttigieg, I would also point out that he has the lowest disapproval rating (among Democrats) of any candidate. That doesn't speak to me of a candidate who's massively repelling large numbers of voters.
As I have said before, I think we are in for a surprise with Buttigieg.
Trump vs Buttigieg.
What a fascinating competition between the generations and world views.
Trump - draft dodger.
Buttigieg - Afghanistan.
And George W was in the Texas Air National Guard, while Kerry won the Purple Heart in Vietnam. And a fat lot of good it did Kerry. I agree that Buttigieg vs Trump is by far the most exciting match up. Really fascinating to see them up against each other. My view is that successful Presidential candidates are blank slates onto which voters project their hopes. And the fresher faced you are, the easier you can pull that trick off.
If this comes down to who do you trust to keep us safe
Boris/Patel
Corbyn/Abbott
I can only see one winner
Is now really the time for this kind of comment?
Others are trying to make it political
Personally I think it is best not to so my regrets in doing so. Sorry
The Guardian is trying to politicize it. “Tory cuts to police to blame” blah blah blah puke
They really are obnoxious
Bozo’s statement suggests he thinks police numbers are of some relevance.
They shot him dead in less than 5 minutes allegedly....... what more can we reasonably expect?
This assumes that voters are reasonable, and that people behave in a logical manner if they feel threatened...
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
These events don’t generally change the game. Everyone expected the murder of Remainer Jo Cox by a mad Britain First guy to shift the referendum, not least coz they suspended campaigning for 3 days! Yet Leave still won
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
You are right. This will play well for Boris
The Manchester Arena attack didn't have that effect in 2017. Indeed it focussed attention on Tory police cuts..
Mainly due to the PM being the person who, as home secretary, had cut them I'm not convinced todays horrible events will affect voting at all.
In all ruminating over the events of today, it did strike me that not even the creative genius of Chris Morris could have come up with his suicide bombers in Four Lions being chased down the street by a guy armed with a five foot fucking narwhal tusk. A narwhal tusk. Reality top trumps fiction, every time.
Has anyone placed bets on the Tories gaining seats in Scotland?
Nope.
I think @Casino_Royale has. I think that they will have net losses there but a lot of Scottish majorities are so small, and with 4 major parties there will be gains alongside losses.
Trump certainly creates lots of jobs for attorneys and prison guards! Mayor Pete is a bit policy light for me, but that seems to be the modern way. If you don't have any policies, nothing to find fault with.
In all ruminating over the events of today, it did strike me that not even the creative genius of Chris Morris could have come up with his suicide bombers in Four Lions being chased down the street by a guy armed with a five foot fucking narwhal tusk. A narwhal tusk. Reality top trumps fiction, every time.
I do hope the campaign isn’t suspended for longer than a day, it certainly sends the wrong message against terrorism. Maybe 1 day to respect the victims would be appropriate and then back to business.
The message from Labour HQ to campaigners this evening was that Corbyn and Johnosn had spoken about the attack and agreed to resume ground campaigning tomorrow, so as to make a statement that the democratic process could not be intimidated. HQ asked campaigners to only put out positive social media today.
Had an enjoyable Churchillian dinner in Harlow this evening with Robert Halfon, though Priti Patel pulled out at the last minute as she had to attend Cobra after today's incident for understandable reasons
If Bozo tries to make political capital out of this then Labour should respond with a simple message . Too little too late , you cut the police and now are just replacing what you lost .
Aswell as the cuts to community policing , that could well be a bigger issue . Johnson is going to be all about the future will be great with all his new police and much harsher sentencing , it’s difficult to compete with that message but you can try and channel the public anger about what has been done in the past .
Labour want the voters to punish previous bad decisions not be wanting to reward the Tories for future promises on police etc.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7740177/Jeremy-Corbyns-union-pal-accused-juju-slur-against-Jewish-MP.html
I think that the fact that it was fellow ex-prisoners chasing after him means that is unlikely. They're evidence of the system working.
I am interested to hear what transpires about this.
People had lost confidence in the government to protect them back then.
They really are obnoxious
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7740177/Jeremy-Corbyns-union-pal-accused-juju-slur-against-Jewish-MP.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7740131/Moment-hero-bystanders-armed-fire-extinguisher-stick-chase-knife-wielding-terrorist.html
We should do what the Israelis do: literally bury them underground. They have special prisons under the desert where they entomb terrorists in windowless cells 100m beneath the surface. I’ve seen the buildings. Terrifying.
Corbyn
I think Con win with something like 30-40 seat majority as I've said all the way along.
However, I suspect that when Obama comes out swinging for Buttigieg (if he is the nominee), then all these concerns will disappear.
As people with an interest in politics it is understandable to speculate how this might affect an election. It is a black swan event and hard to predict and really it may have a large influence on voters or it may have none at all.
If I'm right to suspect that a substantial fraction of the Labour Leave switchers will let the Conservatives down, then a lead that low indicates a growing likelihood of another Hung Parliament. Even if Labour can't get all the way up to 40% again, it may very well be that the Tory polling number includes a lot of extra votes being stacked up in their defences as a result of the Brexit Party's partial stand down. Ought to make it easier for them to hold territory, but conversely the continued presence of BXP in those Leave marginals could make it harder for them to capture more ground. That, of course, depends on whom BXP are taking the votes from, and I have read the suggestion (via YouGov, I think, but I wouldn't swear to it) that BXP are hurting the Tories more than Labour.
If the Tories are to scrape home under such circumstances then it may be down to whether or not they can outperform expectations in Scotland.
But anyway, as others have observed this is a black swan event that may or may not have political salience. We'll have to wait for evidence in respect of this.
Turned out a lovely day but of course very saddened by the attack in London
May everyone have a pleasant nights rest.
Tomorrow is another day and one less for this soap opera of an election to continue ( just 11campaign days left)
Good night folks
Edit - but thank you to whoever first tipped this man because he’s come in miles.
Here in the Los Angeles surburbs, I know a lot of Republicans. They mostly don't like Trump.
But they'd go out and vote for him to avoid Sanders for sure. They'd probably go out and vote Trump to avoid Warren.
They probably wouldn't worry so much about Buttigieg.
And this matters, because Trump only has an approval rating of 43-44%. To win re-election he needs to find people who don't approve of him, but disapprove more of the Democrat.
What they do do is alter the narrative flow. This hideous murder came on a day when Labour were doing well, Boris’ dad, NHS, etc. Now we will be talking about terror, prison, migration and Islam for a few days. Not natural territory for the jezbollah
We need a distraction and the grandchildren will be round tomorrow to assist finishing the rest so to speak
Goodnight.
Might be hiding for megapollingsaturday4
In the past you have been reluctant to commit to allowing the police to shoot to kill.
Have you changed your mind?
Here are the numbers from FiveThirtyEight:
I've been long a long time, so am biased. But I have been banging his drum at prices from 25 to 6.
At current prices he's no longer the clear value bet. I think Biden and Warren are better bets here. (Realistically, I think Biden is probably the most likely winner with - say - a 35% chance, then Warren at around 25%, then Buttigieg the same or a little less, and then there's a 15% chance or so of it being someone else.)
As I have said before, I think we are in for a surprise with Buttigieg.
Trump vs Buttigieg.
What a fascinating competition between the generations and world views.
Trump - draft dodger.
Buttigieg - Afghanistan.
And another - Mr Corbyn why do you want to invite a Hamas supporter to number 10?
https://order-order.com/2019/11/26/corbyn-invite-hamas-supporting-muslim-association-britain-downing-street-elected/
I do hope the campaign isn’t suspended for longer than a day, it certainly sends the wrong message against terrorism. Maybe 1 day to respect the victims would be appropriate and then back to business.
Bloomberg? Nah. Patrick? Nah.
I would point out that Gabbard has been rising in the Iowa and - even more so - New Hampshire polls, so it's not impossible she gets a bit of 'mo. Her unfavourables are through the roof, mind, so hard to see her winning the Presidential nomination, but you could easily see her get to a level where she's one of four or five Democrats to win delegates in Iowa.
The other possibility is Klobouchar. She's also been on a slow upward trend in Iowa. Her ground game there is OK, as she's from nearby Minnesota. She's qualified for the December debate too.
As far as trading bets go, those are the two I'd go for.
Buttigieg - charisma-free mayor of a small town
Mayor Pete is a bit policy light for me, but that seems to be the modern way. If you don't have any policies, nothing to find fault with.
I agree that Buttigieg vs Trump is by far the most exciting match up. Really fascinating to see them up against each other.
My view is that successful Presidential candidates are blank slates onto which voters project their hopes. And the fresher faced you are, the easier you can pull that trick off.
I'm not convinced todays horrible events will affect voting at all.
A narwhal tusk.
Reality top trumps fiction, every time.
Overall? Nope
Aswell as the cuts to community policing , that could well be a bigger issue . Johnson is going to be all about the future will be great with all his new police and much harsher sentencing , it’s difficult to compete with that message but you can try and channel the public anger about what has been done in the past .
Labour want the voters to punish previous bad decisions not be wanting to reward the Tories for future promises on police etc.