politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?
Comments
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I have had a sense for a while a lot of people have decided and just want the vote to happentimmo said:Have done quite a bit of canvassing over the last week and it seems to me that people have already made their minds up and now just want the election to happen.
Get the feeling it would have to be a massive black swan event to get them to change their minds.
The polls may fluctuate but for Corbyn to even stand still be needs conservatives to vote labour and I just cannot see any conservative voter switching to Corbyn0 -
No argument. It just seemed they were going for the most senior Army commanders here.Fysics_Teacher said:
What about Sherman? He was deliberately ruthless to the South. He coined the phrase “War is hell” and said “ War is cruelty. There is no use trying to reform it; the crueler it is, the sooner it will be over.”ydoethur said:
That's part of being a general and I would argue quite separate from being ruthless. To my mind, being ruthless is throwing away your soldiers' lives because although there is an alternative it is one you consider less attractive. From that point of view Napoleon, Grant or Zhukov are the classic examples of 'ruthless' generals.Sean_F said:Wellington didn't throw his soldiers' lives away. But, he was quite prepared to take and inflict very heavy casualties when necessary.
It's worth noting of course that two of them won, and one had a long series of successes before he was finally brought low.0 -
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The problem is that the reason we have these silly swings between local government elections/early polling and the final results of a GE is because of the impact of 'low-information voters' (usually more C2DE and the young) who disproportionately make up the undecideds in this part of the campaign. They went heavily Labour last election. So the swings in seats with more of these demographics are going to seem higher based on current polling compared to GE2017 results.NeilVW said:I have been looking at a couple of the early-declaring seats on election night. Often they are misleading due to being unrepresentative, but they are interesting nonetheless, particularly as they are quite strongly Leave areas.
Remain United’s model has the Tories within 7 points of Labour in both Houghton & Sunderland S and Sunderland C. The projected swings since the last election are 11% and 8% respectively, above the 4.5 - 5% GB average. In both seats the Tories are estimated to be roughly standing still while Lab plummet. Electoral Calculus shows a similar, if slightly less dramatic picture.
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At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quicklyCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=201 -
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Interesting responses on Vietnam. Perhaps the consequence is that you really ought not involve yourself in a conflict unless you are prepared to be as ruthless as necessary - and you better have a good idea of how ruthless you will need to be.
So, for example, intervening to support the Kurds to defeat IS didn't require a high level of ruthlessness, because the Kurds provide a reliable bulwark of support. Intervening to support Assad is requiring more ruthlessness from the Russians, because the base of Assad's support is relatively narrow. But the base of the non-Islamist opposition to Assad is even narrower.0 -
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
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Or Yellows.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=200 -
Yes, I hadn't seen the post you were responding to! I will make my mind up at the very last minute depending on what the polls are saying. At the moment it's a 3 way split between not voting, the Lib Dems and Labour. If there is any chance Corbyn could be PM it won't be Labour. FPTP is a lottery and I could get it horribly wrong.ydoethur said:
I am afraid even speaking as a REmainer I do not agree with you. LEaving aside the individual views of the candidates, the simple fact is Corbyn is an untrustworthy man who also wants to be free of the shackles of the EU. Even if that were not true, he has repeatedly demonstrated it is a low priority for him. Anyone who thinks he will try and remain, please contact me via IM because I have a bridge for sale. What's still more worrying is that the rest of his programme would be far more damaging and disruptive than any departure from the EU, possibly including via a small war.OllyT said:
The problem is our voting system gives you a choice of 2 and most Labour candidates are sounder on Brexit than the Tories from a remainer perspective.ydoethur said:
It was a sarcastic comment in response to a comment that intelligent people would ONLY be voting Labour. Which comment was as you rightly note patronising, rude, and stupid.OllyT said:
"ydoethur said:"No truly intelligent person will be voting Labour at this election. Or at least, only people who are intelligent in the way Dominic Cummings is intelligent.
That is pretty insulting to the millions of people who will vote Labour.
We have an electoral system that gives us a very restricted choice of 2 governing parties, nothing I can do about that. My seat is a Lab-Con marginal. I am opposed to Brexit, don't think Johnson or Corbyn are fit to run the country so I look at the two candidates. The Labour candidate is a moderate and a remainer and the Tory is the sort of Brexiteer that would actively be supporting No Deal when a the trade deal fails to materialise next summer.
What what an intelligent person do?
Although to be blunt I cannot understand how anyone would vote for a party led by an admirer of Chavez, Morales, Gerry Adams, Paul Eisen and Len McCluskey.
That leaves those of us in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are not standing with a very big problem.
INcidentally, I'll accept your apology for the misunderstanding which is implicit in your post. Sarcasm doesn't work too well on the internet.0 -
Back the favourites then!CarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=200 -
If you can afford it I can throughly recommend a four day teaching week. I would also recommend Wednesday as the best day to pick, if you have a timetabler who takes requests.ydoethur said:
THat is an interesting report, particularly over the four day week. I would have expected that to be popular, although my views may be coloured by the fact I am toying with the idea of going part-time myself. However, it seems that people realise you can't have a four-day week and an expanded NHS provision on the figures offered.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest you read thisCorrectHorseBattery said:
Today the big story is about a fire which people are claiming on cladding.ozymandias said:
Nope. Only in your mind.CorrectHorseBattery said:The election narrative is quickly running away from the Tories
Yesterday it was about free broadband.
The day before it was about the NHS.
What would you call it?
"The group, floating voters who have supported all three main political parties in the past, overwhelmingly distrusted Jeremy Corbyn and simply didn’t believe his main election claim that the Conservatives would “sell off” the NHS to Donald Trump." https://t.co/lLtx7zCjF7
The general point about the four day week (if universally adopted) is that the NHS isn’t the only state service that would be stuffed.0 -
Isn't leaving the countryside littered with landmines 'ruthless'. Was in Cambodia a few years ago and the number of children with missing limbs due to anti-personnel miners was heartbreaking.NoSpaceName said:Interesting responses on Vietnam. Perhaps the consequence is that you really ought not involve yourself in a conflict unless you are prepared to be as ruthless as necessary - and you better have a good idea of how ruthless you will need to be.
So, for example, intervening to support the Kurds to defeat IS didn't require a high level of ruthlessness, because the Kurds provide a reliable bulwark of support. Intervening to support Assad is requiring more ruthlessness from the Russians, because the base of Assad's support is relatively narrow. But the base of the non-Islamist opposition to Assad is even narrower.0 -
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
After the floods reaction, time, money and concern will be heaped on anything negative that happens before polling dayCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=200 -
Good evening, islamophobes0
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That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.timmo said:
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quicklyCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=201 -
Been out today campaigning for the Lib Dems in a nearish target constituency (not mine).
Great reaction on the doorstep etc etc.0 -
You're luckier than me then. I don't have the option of the Liberal Democrats, and Labour could gain this seat.OllyT said:
Yes, I hadn't seen the post you were responding to! I will make my mind up at the very last minute depending on what the polls are saying. At the moment it's a 3 way split between not voting, the Lib Dems and Labour. If there is any chance Corbyn could be PM it won't be Labour. FPTP is a lottery and I could get it horribly wrong.ydoethur said:
I am afraid even speaking as a REmainer I do not agree with you. LEaving aside the individual views of the candidates, the simple fact is Corbyn is an untrustworthy man who also wants to be free of the shackles of the EU. Even if that were not true, he has repeatedly demonstrated it is a low priority for him. Anyone who thinks he will try and remain, please contact me via IM because I have a bridge for sale. What's still more worrying is that the rest of his programme would be far more damaging and disruptive than any departure from the EU, possibly including via a small war.OllyT said:
The problem is our voting system gives you a choice of 2 and most Labour candidates are sounder on Brexit than the Tories from a remainer perspective.ydoethur said:
It was a sarcastic comment in response to a comment that intelligent people would ONLY be voting Labour. Which comment was as you rightly note patronising, rude, and stupid.OllyT said:
"ydoethur said:"No truly intelligent person will be voting Labour at this election. Or at least, only people who are intelligent in the way Dominic Cummings is intelligent.
That is pretty insulting to the millions of people who will vote Labour.
We have an electoral system that gives us a very restricted choice of 2 governing parties, nothing I can do about that. My seat is a Lab-Con marginal. I am opposed to Brexit, don't think Johnson or Corbyn are fit to run the country so I look at the two candidates. The Labour candidate is a moderate and a remainer and the Tory is the sort of Brexiteer that would actively be supporting No Deal when a the trade deal fails to materialise next summer.
What what an intelligent person do?
Although to be blunt I cannot understand how anyone would vote for a party led by an admirer of Chavez, Morales, Gerry Adams, Paul Eisen and Len McCluskey.
That leaves those of us in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are not standing with a very big problem.
INcidentally, I'll accept your apology for the misunderstanding which is implicit in your post. Sarcasm doesn't work too well on the internet.0 -
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Indeed no. Where would my school be without me teaching five days a week?Fysics_Teacher said:
If you can afford it I can throughly recommend a four day teaching week. I would also recommend Wednesday as the best day to pick, if you have a timetabler who takes requests.ydoethur said:
THat is an interesting report, particularly over the four day week. I would have expected that to be popular, although my views may be coloured by the fact I am toying with the idea of going part-time myself. However, it seems that people realise you can't have a four-day week and an expanded NHS provision on the figures offered.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would suggest you read thisCorrectHorseBattery said:
Today the big story is about a fire which people are claiming on cladding.ozymandias said:
Nope. Only in your mind.CorrectHorseBattery said:The election narrative is quickly running away from the Tories
Yesterday it was about free broadband.
The day before it was about the NHS.
What would you call it?
"The group, floating voters who have supported all three main political parties in the past, overwhelmingly distrusted Jeremy Corbyn and simply didn’t believe his main election claim that the Conservatives would “sell off” the NHS to Donald Trump." https://t.co/lLtx7zCjF7
The general point about the four day week (if universally adopted) is that the NHS isn’t the only state service that would be stuffed.
Although maybe they would cut the teaching week for pupils to four days as well?0 -
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."ydoethur said:
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.timmo said:
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quicklyCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=200 -
If you don't ruin your tea by adding milk to it then you don't have to worry about whether to add the milk first or last.Time_to_Leave said:
Point of order - milk goes in the cup first, in a situation where you’ve got proper leaf tea mashing in a pot and will then pour it out.Arthur said:
I don't really think he doesn't know how to make a cup of tea, nor that there's anything wrong with how he or anyone else does it, but the meme is out there. He didn't put milk in first: he put it in a few seconds after he put the bag in.Charles said:
What’s the “not knowing how to make a cup of tea” meme?Arthur said:
Free sex on the NHS!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1195691890080976896
What could it be?
Labour are running a masterful campaign.
Summary of the final month:
* two weeks debating popular and sensible and in some cases surprise policies from Labour (surprise gets attention), doubtless with more "gaffs" from Boris Johnson such as not knowing how to make a cup of tea, not knowing how to show compassion for flood victims, not wanting to say how many children he's got, etc.,
* followed by two weeks of "if you want a Romanian for your neighbour" from Tories and from the voter suppression operation called the Brexit "Party".
He put milk in first - very common (I don’t) with lots of argument about why people do this (it tends to divide on socio-economic grounds)
He left the tea bag in - I do this too as I like my tea strong
When I'm in a cafe that does cups rather than pots, I usually ask them to leave the bag in too. Otherwise they're prone to assume everybody prefers tea as weak as gnat's piss and whip the bag out as soon as the water has gone slightly cloudy. At home though it's proper leaf tea and milk in at the end - none of that dust from the drying room floor that goes into teabags :-)
https://twitter.com/i/status/11943204538772807680 -
It won't stop Labour attributing blame to the government, though. Let's not pretend they won't use this to try and score points.CarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=200 -
At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
He got burned over that.Noo said:
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."ydoethur said:
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.timmo said:
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quicklyCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=20
Only metaphorically, unlike the people in Grenfell.0 -
Milky tea is disgusting, but that's because it's got tea in it.NoSpaceName said:
If you don't ruin your tea by adding milk to it then you don't have to worry about whether to add the milk first or last.Time_to_Leave said:
Point of order - milk goes in the cup first, in a situation where you’ve got proper leaf tea mashing in a pot and will then pour it out.Arthur said:
I don't really think he doesn't know how to make a cup of tea, nor that there's anything wrong with how he or anyone else does it, but the meme is out there. He didn't put milk in first: he put it in a few seconds after he put the bag in.Charles said:
What’s the “not knowing how to make a cup of tea” meme?Arthur said:
Free sex on the NHS!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1195691890080976896
What could it be?
Labour are running a masterful campaign.
Summary of the final month:
* two weeks debating popular and sensible and in some cases surprise policies from Labour (surprise gets attention), doubtless with more "gaffs" from Boris Johnson such as not knowing how to make a cup of tea, not knowing how to show compassion for flood victims, not wanting to say how many children he's got, etc.,
* followed by two weeks of "if you want a Romanian for your neighbour" from Tories and from the voter suppression operation called the Brexit "Party".
He put milk in first - very common (I don’t) with lots of argument about why people do this (it tends to divide on socio-economic grounds)
He left the tea bag in - I do this too as I like my tea strong
When I'm in a cafe that does cups rather than pots, I usually ask them to leave the bag in too. Otherwise they're prone to assume everybody prefers tea as weak as gnat's piss and whip the bag out as soon as the water has gone slightly cloudy. At home though it's proper leaf tea and milk in at the end - none of that dust from the drying room floor that goes into teabags :-)
https://twitter.com/i/status/11943204538772807682 -
In 2017 the highly accurate exit poll benefited from just two years having passed since the previous election; the organisers were able to visit every single polling location they had covered in 2015 (giving a firm baseline), while adding three more. There had been no major changes to local electoral boundaries and little population movement which could have skewed things. Hopefully the same is true in 2019, assuming there is an exit poll this year - has that been officially confirmed?Time_to_Leave said:
Thanks, I’ve been wondering what we conclude from them. The other question is whether any of the churn we will see could confuse the Exit Poll? I’m guessing not as it’s been about right for years through all sorts of upheaval.NeilVW said:I have been looking at a couple of the early-declaring seats on election night. Often they are misleading due to being unrepresentative, but they are interesting nonetheless, particularly as they are quite strongly Leave areas.
Remain United’s model has the Tories within 7 points of Labour in both Houghton & Sunderland S and Sunderland C. The projected swings since the last election are 11% and 8% respectively, above the 4.5 - 5% GB average. In both seats the Tories are estimated to be roughly standing still while Lab plummet. Electoral Calculus shows a similar, if slightly less dramatic picture.0 -
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Jacob Rees Mogg is smart enough to know how to escape a towering inferno, unless the towering inferno is a metaphor for his stupidity.ydoethur said:
He got burned over that.Noo said:
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."ydoethur said:
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.timmo said:
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quicklyCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=20
Only metaphorically, unlike the people in Grenfell.0 -
I don't get what's wrong with putting the milk in first with your tea. I always put the milk in first, then I put in the espresso.1
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No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.-1 -
It's the panic button you push when some idiot tries to serve you pizza without pineapple.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
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Voting tactically won't work unless you have an electoral pact. Voting the way you think helps your cause may end up doing the exact reverse. Not so if you've only got one clear choice on the ballot box. Like the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
Possibly near misses for CON in Bootle and East Ham?nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.2 -
How bad would a Labour leader need to be before 'stopping Brexit' was too high a price to pay for electing them?CorrectHorseBattery said:At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.0 -
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?brokenwheel said:
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
I have asked Deltapoll to do Chingford and Woodford Green, Harlow, Thurrock and Enfield Southgate to see which of the nearest target seats needs most helpAve_it said:nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
Possibly near misses for CON in Bootle and East Ham?nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.0 -
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
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Boris much quicker off the mark in Bolton than May was in GrenfellCarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=200 -
Where's DAvid Lowe when you need him?Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
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Logged in this morning and had to change my password. Did that successfully.
Logged in again now and again told to change my password. Was sent the email to do it - I tried and got the following message:
"Failed to authenticate your password reset request. Try using the reset request form again".
That then happened again - finally with the 3rd email I managed to follow the procedure successfully.
So looks as if there are still problems.0 -
Good to see nicer politics has got a grip herePhilip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
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Taking to yourself again?Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
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Also, it's good luck to have bubbles in your tea so pour the milk in from a good height.0
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About twice as good as Corbyn.SunnyJim said:
How bad would a Labour leader need to be before 'stopping Brexit' was too high a price to pay for electing them?CorrectHorseBattery said:At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.ReggieCide said:
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?brokenwheel said:
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, toowooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
-
If you take rail nationalisation as an example there's quite a lot of executive authority in relation to franchises, whether to agree any new franchises, or to some extent whether to terminate them early.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
Not sure what the contract lengths are on the current franchises, but you can be sure a Corbyn government would let them all lapse rather than agreeing new ones or extensions.
I don't know if it would require a change in the law for the government to own new trains, rather than the rosco's having them. Potentially time, and executive authority, could nationalise the majority of the railways without legislation.0 -
You only use the teabag once????wooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.0 -
No, just to the numerous porridge-brained islamophobes on this site. Good evening everybody else, too.CarlottaVance said:
Taking to yourself again?Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
0 -
You forgot the four sugars.wooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty teaRobD said:
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, toowooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
I wouldn't have described Malcolm as an islamophobe.Noo said:
No, just to the numerous porridge-brained islamophobes on this site. Good evening everybody else, too.CarlottaVance said:
Taking to yourself again?Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
(Just to be clear, before I am brained by a ballistic turnip - this is a joke.)0 -
From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit."
There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!0 -
Dear heaven.kyf_100 said:
You forgot the four sugars.wooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense
We finally have a culinary offence worse than pineapple on pizza.
(One I was guilty of for many years...)1 -
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
0 -
We still like to use loose leaf, not because we're posh but because teabags are hard to read.wooliedyed said:Also, it's good luck to have bubbles in your tea so pour the milk in from a good height.
1 -
Because steel, railways and Royal Mail are mainly one-offs. If Labour wins would BT become a Monopoly and should people who work for the Broadband section of SKY, Virgin Media and other companies start looking for a new job or position? Also, will there be a drop in investment for all these companies?
0 -
And if Labour were in government the Tories wouldn’t do the same .Jason said:
It won't stop Labour attributing blame to the government, though. Let's not pretend they won't use this to try and score points.CarlottaVance said:Beat Corbyn to it?
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=200 -
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.0 -
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.0 -
You would be the third man to ask that question.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.3 -
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
0 -
If anyone made tea like that for me, I'd make sure there was a convenient indoor plant at hand...wooliedyed said:
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty teaRobD said:
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, toowooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
If the country doesn't give Boris the majority he wants, will he stick around or flounce?0
-
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.ydoethur said:
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.ReggieCide said:
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?brokenwheel said:
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
Is a poker name like a poker face?ReggieCide said:
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.ydoethur said:
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.ReggieCide said:
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?brokenwheel said:
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites.Jason said:
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.0 -
I had an uncle who always slurped his tea out of the saucer. Does that make him working class without using a mug?RobD said:
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, toowooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.RobD said:
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.0 -
Which seat are you in?CorrectHorseBattery said:At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
When I was a wee lad grandad would make me a cup of tea in the posh china and hed put so much sugar in it you could eat the undissolved sugar with your spoon at the endkyf_100 said:
You forgot the four sugars.wooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
Labour have no hope of being the largest party, but they might just hang on to force Johnson from Number 10.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.1 -
I remember saying that those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa are equally as bad as those who attack people who choose to wear a kippah.Philip_Thompson said:
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.0 -
Beaconsfield.nunu2 said:Comment on which constituency you would like to see Deltapoll poll next.
https://mobile.twitter.com/martinboon/status/11957298487250698240 -
I was thinking that the other day. Would he carry on as loto? I think he would, especially if Corbyn was propped up by the SNP. He would have an inexhaustible supply of ammunition to use. The more you think about that scenario, though, the more it seems unlikely to happen. I just cannot see Labour leave voters bailing out Corbyn.OldKingCole said:If the country doesn't give Boris the majority he wants, will he stick around or flounce?
0 -
Even without a uniform swing I think it is more likely that marginal seats move in the same direction than move in different directions.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.RobD said:
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.0 -
Hastings and Rye is a seat Labour could win this time even if they don't do well elsewhere.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.RobD said:
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.0 -
North East Hants. It's incredibly safe but apart from 2017, Lib Dems have always come second here. Doing my bit I guess.Andy_JS said:
Which seat are you in?CorrectHorseBattery said:At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.0 -
That's not what was said, I would agree with that, attacking anyone under any circumstances is wrong.Noo said:
I remember saying that those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa are equally as bad as those who attack people who choose to wear a kippah.Philip_Thompson said:
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.0 -
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.Noo said:
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites.Jason said:
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.0 -
Fair point.Andy_JS said:
Hastings and Rye is a seat Labour could win this time even if they don't do well elsewhere.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.RobD said:
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
To me it seems that if the Tories drop about 4 seats they're unable to govern. They'll probably lose that many in Scotland.
Can they take Labour seats? I'm doubtful that Johnson is the man to do it. But as we get closer to polling day we will see.0 -
I would suggest that anyone making tea like that would be unlikely to have an indoor plant unless it were plastic and therefore in an inappropriate receptacle.squareroot2 said:
If anyone made tea like that for me, I'd make sure there was a convenient indoor plant at hand...wooliedyed said:
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty teaRobD said:
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, toowooliedyed said:The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense0 -
Their strategy is basically defensive.NoSpaceName said:
Labour have no hope of being the largest party, but they might just hang on to force Johnson from Number 10.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
I see it going like this:
Tories largest party but down seats.
Labour is a minority Government and we have a referendum. Remain wins.
Another election is called.1 -
Probably just the Islamophobes will.Jason said:
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.Noo said:
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites.Jason said:
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.0 -
I think it depends on their composition. All parties are to some extent coalitions. Conservative voters will include blue-rinse grannies and plumbers. Labour voters will include university lecturers and mechanics. There could be multiple swings happening, such as plumbers switching to Lib Dem, mechanics turning Conservative, and so on. It feels to me a little like the electorate are running in all directions at once. The net effect will be one thing, but the granular effects might be... diverse.RobD said:
Even without a uniform swing I think it is more likely that marginal seats move in the same direction than move in different directions.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.RobD said:
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.RobD said:
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.CorrectHorseBattery said:
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.nunu2 said:
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.RobD said:
Probably a ton of near-misses for the BluesCarlottaVance said:Terrible tease....
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.0 -
Only to the extent both relate to a card game not a fireside implement.Fysics_Teacher said:
Is a poker name like a poker face?ReggieCide said:
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.ydoethur said:
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.ReggieCide said:
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?brokenwheel said:
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.ReggieCide said:
Is that a cricketing analogy?brokenwheel said:
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.logical_song said:
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.Andy_JS said:
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.CorrectHorseBattery said:Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.0 -
In every single GE, both main parties each win a number of seats narrowly. I think normally they both win around 15 to 20 seats by less than 1,000 votes.
And you always get some seats being gained by the loser.
Which is why:
1) Farage standing down in Con seats does matter - because even if Con wins a majority you should expect some Lab Gains from Con - so Farage standing down helps Con avoid some of those inevitable losses.
2) Reading West type results do matter - because if 2017 narrow Con wins become easy wins then they won't be in the narrow wins pool this time - which means other seats will be in the narrow wins pool this time.0 -
So she’s spent her day schmoozing people who won’t be voting in the election?OldKingCole said:From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit."
There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!0 -
[shrugs]Jason said:
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.Noo said:
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites.Jason said:
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.Noo said:
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.Philip_Thompson said:
Good evening, antisemite.Noo said:Good evening, islamophobes
If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
Anybody who turns a blind eye to bigotry isn't "reasonable".0 -
But on safe ground.....Sandpit said:
So she’s spent her day schmoozing people who won’t be voting in the election?OldKingCole said:From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit."
There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!0
