Have done quite a bit of canvassing over the last week and it seems to me that people have already made their minds up and now just want the election to happen. Get the feeling it would have to be a massive black swan event to get them to change their minds.
I have had a sense for a while a lot of people have decided and just want the vote to happen
The polls may fluctuate but for Corbyn to even stand still be needs conservatives to vote labour and I just cannot see any conservative voter switching to Corbyn
Wellington didn't throw his soldiers' lives away. But, he was quite prepared to take and inflict very heavy casualties when necessary.
That's part of being a general and I would argue quite separate from being ruthless. To my mind, being ruthless is throwing away your soldiers' lives because although there is an alternative it is one you consider less attractive. From that point of view Napoleon, Grant or Zhukov are the classic examples of 'ruthless' generals.
It's worth noting of course that two of them won, and one had a long series of successes before he was finally brought low.
What about Sherman? He was deliberately ruthless to the South. He coined the phrase “War is hell” and said “ War is cruelty. There is no use trying to reform it; the crueler it is, the sooner it will be over.”
No argument. It just seemed they were going for the most senior Army commanders here.
I have been looking at a couple of the early-declaring seats on election night. Often they are misleading due to being unrepresentative, but they are interesting nonetheless, particularly as they are quite strongly Leave areas.
Remain United’s model has the Tories within 7 points of Labour in both Houghton & Sunderland S and Sunderland C. The projected swings since the last election are 11% and 8% respectively, above the 4.5 - 5% GB average. In both seats the Tories are estimated to be roughly standing still while Lab plummet. Electoral Calculus shows a similar, if slightly less dramatic picture.
The problem is that the reason we have these silly swings between local government elections/early polling and the final results of a GE is because of the impact of 'low-information voters' (usually more C2DE and the young) who disproportionately make up the undecideds in this part of the campaign. They went heavily Labour last election. So the swings in seats with more of these demographics are going to seem higher based on current polling compared to GE2017 results.
Interesting responses on Vietnam. Perhaps the consequence is that you really ought not involve yourself in a conflict unless you are prepared to be as ruthless as necessary - and you better have a good idea of how ruthless you will need to be.
So, for example, intervening to support the Kurds to defeat IS didn't require a high level of ruthlessness, because the Kurds provide a reliable bulwark of support. Intervening to support Assad is requiring more ruthlessness from the Russians, because the base of Assad's support is relatively narrow. But the base of the non-Islamist opposition to Assad is even narrower.
"No truly intelligent person will be voting Labour at this election. Or at least, only people who are intelligent in the way Dominic Cummings is intelligent.
"
That is pretty insulting to the millions of people who will vote Labour.
We have an electoral system that gives us a very restricted choice of 2 governing parties, nothing I can do about that. My seat is a Lab-Con marginal. I am opposed to Brexit, don't think Johnson or Corbyn are fit to run the country so I look at the two candidates. The Labour candidate is a moderate and a remainer and the Tory is the sort of Brexiteer that would actively be supporting No Deal when a the trade deal fails to materialise next summer.
What what an intelligent person do?
It was a sarcastic comment in response to a comment that intelligent people would ONLY be voting Labour. Which comment was as you rightly note patronising, rude, and stupid.
Although to be blunt I cannot understand how anyone would vote for a party led by an admirer of Chavez, Morales, Gerry Adams, Paul Eisen and Len McCluskey.
The problem is our voting system gives you a choice of 2 and most Labour candidates are sounder on Brexit than the Tories from a remainer perspective.
I am afraid even speaking as a REmainer I do not agree with you. LEaving aside the individual views of the candidates, the simple fact is Corbyn is an untrustworthy man who also wants to be free of the shackles of the EU. Even if that were not true, he has repeatedly demonstrated it is a low priority for him. Anyone who thinks he will try and remain, please contact me via IM because I have a bridge for sale. What's still more worrying is that the rest of his programme would be far more damaging and disruptive than any departure from the EU, possibly including via a small war.
That leaves those of us in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are not standing with a very big problem.
INcidentally, I'll accept your apology for the misunderstanding which is implicit in your post. Sarcasm doesn't work too well on the internet.
Yes, I hadn't seen the post you were responding to! I will make my mind up at the very last minute depending on what the polls are saying. At the moment it's a 3 way split between not voting, the Lib Dems and Labour. If there is any chance Corbyn could be PM it won't be Labour. FPTP is a lottery and I could get it horribly wrong.
The election narrative is quickly running away from the Tories
Nope. Only in your mind.
Today the big story is about a fire which people are claiming on cladding.
Yesterday it was about free broadband.
The day before it was about the NHS.
What would you call it?
I would suggest you read this
"The group, floating voters who have supported all three main political parties in the past, overwhelmingly distrusted Jeremy Corbyn and simply didn’t believe his main election claim that the Conservatives would “sell off” the NHS to Donald Trump." https://t.co/lLtx7zCjF7
THat is an interesting report, particularly over the four day week. I would have expected that to be popular, although my views may be coloured by the fact I am toying with the idea of going part-time myself. However, it seems that people realise you can't have a four-day week and an expanded NHS provision on the figures offered.
If you can afford it I can throughly recommend a four day teaching week. I would also recommend Wednesday as the best day to pick, if you have a timetabler who takes requests.
The general point about the four day week (if universally adopted) is that the NHS isn’t the only state service that would be stuffed.
Interesting responses on Vietnam. Perhaps the consequence is that you really ought not involve yourself in a conflict unless you are prepared to be as ruthless as necessary - and you better have a good idea of how ruthless you will need to be.
So, for example, intervening to support the Kurds to defeat IS didn't require a high level of ruthlessness, because the Kurds provide a reliable bulwark of support. Intervening to support Assad is requiring more ruthlessness from the Russians, because the base of Assad's support is relatively narrow. But the base of the non-Islamist opposition to Assad is even narrower.
Isn't leaving the countryside littered with landmines 'ruthless'. Was in Cambodia a few years ago and the number of children with missing limbs due to anti-personnel miners was heartbreaking.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quickly
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.
"No truly intelligent person will be voting Labour at this election. Or at least, only people who are intelligent in the way Dominic Cummings is intelligent.
"
That is pretty insulting to the millions of people who will vote Labour.
We have an electoral system that gives us a very restricted choice of 2 governing parties, nothing I can do about that. My seat is a Lab-Con marginal. I am opposed to Brexit, don't think Johnson or Corbyn are fit to run the country so I look at the two candidates. The Labour candidate is a moderate and a remainer and the Tory is the sort of Brexiteer that would actively be supporting No Deal when a the trade deal fails to materialise next summer.
What what an intelligent person do?
It was a sarcastic comment in response to a comment that intelligent people would ONLY be voting Labour. Which comment was as you rightly note patronising, rude, and stupid.
Although to be blunt I cannot understand how anyone would vote for a party led by an admirer of Chavez, Morales, Gerry Adams, Paul Eisen and Len McCluskey.
The problem is our voting system gives you a choice of 2 and most Labour candidates are sounder on Brexit than the Tories from a remainer perspective.
I am afraid even speaking as a REmainer I do not agree with you. LEaving aside the individual views of the candidates, the simple fact is Corbyn is an untrustworthy man who also wants to be free of the shackles of the EU. Even if that were not true, he has repeatedly demonstrated it is a low priority for him. Anyone who thinks he will try and remain, please contact me via IM because I have a bridge for sale. What's still more worrying is that the rest of his programme would be far more damaging and disruptive than any departure from the EU, possibly including via a small war.
That leaves those of us in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats are not standing with a very big problem.
INcidentally, I'll accept your apology for the misunderstanding which is implicit in your post. Sarcasm doesn't work too well on the internet.
Yes, I hadn't seen the post you were responding to! I will make my mind up at the very last minute depending on what the polls are saying. At the moment it's a 3 way split between not voting, the Lib Dems and Labour. If there is any chance Corbyn could be PM it won't be Labour. FPTP is a lottery and I could get it horribly wrong.
You're luckier than me then. I don't have the option of the Liberal Democrats, and Labour could gain this seat.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
The election narrative is quickly running away from the Tories
Nope. Only in your mind.
Today the big story is about a fire which people are claiming on cladding.
Yesterday it was about free broadband.
The day before it was about the NHS.
What would you call it?
I would suggest you read this
"The group, floating voters who have supported all three main political parties in the past, overwhelmingly distrusted Jeremy Corbyn and simply didn’t believe his main election claim that the Conservatives would “sell off” the NHS to Donald Trump." https://t.co/lLtx7zCjF7
THat is an interesting report, particularly over the four day week. I would have expected that to be popular, although my views may be coloured by the fact I am toying with the idea of going part-time myself. However, it seems that people realise you can't have a four-day week and an expanded NHS provision on the figures offered.
If you can afford it I can throughly recommend a four day teaching week. I would also recommend Wednesday as the best day to pick, if you have a timetabler who takes requests.
The general point about the four day week (if universally adopted) is that the NHS isn’t the only state service that would be stuffed.
Indeed no. Where would my school be without me teaching five days a week?
Although maybe they would cut the teaching week for pupils to four days as well?
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quickly
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."
* two weeks debating popular and sensible and in some cases surprise policies from Labour (surprise gets attention), doubtless with more "gaffs" from Boris Johnson such as not knowing how to make a cup of tea, not knowing how to show compassion for flood victims, not wanting to say how many children he's got, etc.,
* followed by two weeks of "if you want a Romanian for your neighbour" from Tories and from the voter suppression operation called the Brexit "Party".
What’s the “not knowing how to make a cup of tea” meme?
He put milk in first - very common (I don’t) with lots of argument about why people do this (it tends to divide on socio-economic grounds)
He left the tea bag in - I do this too as I like my tea strong
I don't really think he doesn't know how to make a cup of tea, nor that there's anything wrong with how he or anyone else does it, but the meme is out there. He didn't put milk in first: he put it in a few seconds after he put the bag in.
When I'm in a cafe that does cups rather than pots, I usually ask them to leave the bag in too. Otherwise they're prone to assume everybody prefers tea as weak as gnat's piss and whip the bag out as soon as the water has gone slightly cloudy. At home though it's proper leaf tea and milk in at the end - none of that dust from the drying room floor that goes into teabags :-)
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quickly
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."
He got burned over that.
Only metaphorically, unlike the people in Grenfell.
* two weeks debating popular and sensible and in some cases surprise policies from Labour (surprise gets attention), doubtless with more "gaffs" from Boris Johnson such as not knowing how to make a cup of tea, not knowing how to show compassion for flood victims, not wanting to say how many children he's got, etc.,
* followed by two weeks of "if you want a Romanian for your neighbour" from Tories and from the voter suppression operation called the Brexit "Party".
What’s the “not knowing how to make a cup of tea” meme?
He put milk in first - very common (I don’t) with lots of argument about why people do this (it tends to divide on socio-economic grounds)
He left the tea bag in - I do this too as I like my tea strong
I don't really think he doesn't know how to make a cup of tea, nor that there's anything wrong with how he or anyone else does it, but the meme is out there. He didn't put milk in first: he put it in a few seconds after he put the bag in.
When I'm in a cafe that does cups rather than pots, I usually ask them to leave the bag in too. Otherwise they're prone to assume everybody prefers tea as weak as gnat's piss and whip the bag out as soon as the water has gone slightly cloudy. At home though it's proper leaf tea and milk in at the end - none of that dust from the drying room floor that goes into teabags :-)
I have been looking at a couple of the early-declaring seats on election night. Often they are misleading due to being unrepresentative, but they are interesting nonetheless, particularly as they are quite strongly Leave areas.
Remain United’s model has the Tories within 7 points of Labour in both Houghton & Sunderland S and Sunderland C. The projected swings since the last election are 11% and 8% respectively, above the 4.5 - 5% GB average. In both seats the Tories are estimated to be roughly standing still while Lab plummet. Electoral Calculus shows a similar, if slightly less dramatic picture.
Thanks, I’ve been wondering what we conclude from them. The other question is whether any of the churn we will see could confuse the Exit Poll? I’m guessing not as it’s been about right for years through all sorts of upheaval.
In 2017 the highly accurate exit poll benefited from just two years having passed since the previous election; the organisers were able to visit every single polling location they had covered in 2015 (giving a firm baseline), while adding three more. There had been no major changes to local electoral boundaries and little population movement which could have skewed things. Hopefully the same is true in 2019, assuming there is an exit poll this year - has that been officially confirmed?
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
At least they have learnt the lesson from Grenfell about having to act quickly
That should not have been the lesson of Grenfell. 'Don't break every rule in the book and use flammable cladding' should have been the lesson of Grenfell.
I thought the lesson was "don't get caught in a fire unless you're Jacob Rees Mogg."
He got burned over that.
Only metaphorically, unlike the people in Grenfell.
Jacob Rees Mogg is smart enough to know how to escape a towering inferno, unless the towering inferno is a metaphor for his stupidity.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Is that a cricketing analogy?
It's the panic button you push when some idiot tries to serve you pizza without pineapple.
At the end of the day, if you want to stop Brexit you're going to need Labour's help. I would vote tactically.
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.
Voting tactically won't work unless you have an electoral pact. Voting the way you think helps your cause may end up doing the exact reverse. Not so if you've only got one clear choice on the ballot box. Like the Tories.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
Possibly near misses for CON in Bootle and East Ham?
I have asked Deltapoll to do Chingford and Woodford Green, Harlow, Thurrock and Enfield Southgate to see which of the nearest target seats needs most help
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Is that a cricketing analogy?
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, too
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
If you take rail nationalisation as an example there's quite a lot of executive authority in relation to franchises, whether to agree any new franchises, or to some extent whether to terminate them early.
Not sure what the contract lengths are on the current franchises, but you can be sure a Corbyn government would let them all lapse rather than agreeing new ones or extensions.
I don't know if it would require a change in the law for the government to own new trains, rather than the rosco's having them. Potentially time, and executive authority, could nationalise the majority of the railways without legislation.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, too
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty tea
From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit." There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
You forgot the four sugars.
Dear heaven.
We finally have a culinary offence worse than pineapple on pizza.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.
Because steel, railways and Royal Mail are mainly one-offs. If Labour wins would BT become a Monopoly and should people who work for the Broadband section of SKY, Virgin Media and other companies start looking for a new job or position? Also, will there be a drop in investment for all these companies?
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, too
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty tea
If anyone made tea like that for me, I'd make sure there was a convenient indoor plant at hand...
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Is that a cricketing analogy?
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Is that a cricketing analogy?
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites. If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, too
I had an uncle who always slurped his tea out of the saucer. Does that make him working class without using a mug?
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
You forgot the four sugars.
When I was a wee lad grandad would make me a cup of tea in the posh china and hed put so much sugar in it you could eat the undissolved sugar with your spoon at the end
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
Labour have no hope of being the largest party, but they might just hang on to force Johnson from Number 10.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?
I remember saying that those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa are equally as bad as those who attack people who choose to wear a kippah. I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.
If the country doesn't give Boris the majority he wants, will he stick around or flounce?
I was thinking that the other day. Would he carry on as loto? I think he would, especially if Corbyn was propped up by the SNP. He would have an inexhaustible supply of ammunition to use. The more you think about that scenario, though, the more it seems unlikely to happen. I just cannot see Labour leave voters bailing out Corbyn.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
Even without a uniform swing I think it is more likely that marginal seats move in the same direction than move in different directions.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
Hastings and Rye is a seat Labour could win this time even if they don't do well elsewhere.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Besides being a retort to what you said sure do you remember conflating the burqa with the Jewish skullcap?
I remember saying that those who attack people for choosing to wear a burqa are equally as bad as those who attack people who choose to wear a kippah. I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.
That's not what was said, I would agree with that, attacking anyone under any circumstances is wrong.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites. If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
Hastings and Rye is a seat Labour could win this time even if they don't do well elsewhere.
Fair point.
To me it seems that if the Tories drop about 4 seats they're unable to govern. They'll probably lose that many in Scotland.
Can they take Labour seats? I'm doubtful that Johnson is the man to do it. But as we get closer to polling day we will see.
The correct way to make tea is to put the milk in whilst the bag is still in, then scoop the bag out, dripping tea on the counter top and the top and sides of the bin, dispose of the bag, lick the spoon and stick it back on the spoon tray. And tea must always be slurped. Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Aren't I suppose to do something with a biscuit, too
If you retain your spoon, dunk a biccie and let half of it fall in the mug, then use the spoon to eat it when you've drunk the biscuit filtered bitty tea
If anyone made tea like that for me, I'd make sure there was a convenient indoor plant at hand...
I would suggest that anyone making tea like that would be unlikely to have an indoor plant unless it were plastic and therefore in an inappropriate receptacle.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
Labour have no hope of being the largest party, but they might just hang on to force Johnson from Number 10.
Their strategy is basically defensive.
I see it going like this:
Tories largest party but down seats.
Labour is a minority Government and we have a referendum. Remain wins.
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites. If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.
Survation showed a massive Tory lead in Reading West.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
To be fair, Reading West is already a Tory seat. So if the Tory lead just leads to building up huge leads in seats they already have, it doesn't mean much.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Reading West is exactly the kind of seat Labour need to be winning to have any hope of being largest party, let alone a having a majority. This isn't Tories piling up votes in safe seats, it's them piling up votes in marginals.
You've missed my point. The Tories need to gain seats, they increase their voteshare in Reading West and they haven't actually gained anything.
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
And you've missed my point. If they are making gains in seats that they held by a narrow margin, they are also making similar gains in seats they lost by a narrow margin.
If you assume all seats follow a uniform swing, then you can. But it might be the case that won't happen this time.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
Even without a uniform swing I think it is more likely that marginal seats move in the same direction than move in different directions.
I think it depends on their composition. All parties are to some extent coalitions. Conservative voters will include blue-rinse grannies and plumbers. Labour voters will include university lecturers and mechanics. There could be multiple swings happening, such as plumbers switching to Lib Dem, mechanics turning Conservative, and so on. It feels to me a little like the electorate are running in all directions at once. The net effect will be one thing, but the granular effects might be... diverse.
Corbyn won't have enough seats to do anything remotely controversial. I doubt he'll even get railway nationalisation through.
What he will do, is have a referendum on Brexit where hopefully we Remain and we can see an end to this utter mess.
People say this, but under our system once someone has been appointed PM you have a lot of powers regardless of whether you're running a majority, minority or coalition government: you get access to the nuclear codes, etc. There's only one type of prime minister.
At least Corbyn won't use the nuclear codes. Anything else he tries in a minority government can be voted down if the other parties don't support it.
Yes that's a silly point. I despise the man but literally the last thing i'm worried about is him getting twitchy with the red button.
Is that a cricketing analogy?
No, I only make analogies to proper sports.
Are you suggesting I'm not a proper sport?
I never realised regicide is a sport. Other than in the Tory party, obviously.
I have explained on here before that it's a poker name. If it were a sport I judge it less likely to reside in the Tory party than almost anywhere else.
Is a poker name like a poker face?
Only to the extent both relate to a card game not a fireside implement.
In every single GE, both main parties each win a number of seats narrowly. I think normally they both win around 15 to 20 seats by less than 1,000 votes.
And you always get some seats being gained by the loser.
Which is why:
1) Farage standing down in Con seats does matter - because even if Con wins a majority you should expect some Lab Gains from Con - so Farage standing down helps Con avoid some of those inevitable losses.
2) Reading West type results do matter - because if 2017 narrow Con wins become easy wins then they won't be in the narrow wins pool this time - which means other seats will be in the narrow wins pool this time.
From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit." There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!
So she’s spent her day schmoozing people who won’t be voting in the election?
Point to a single antisemitic thing I've ever said and I'll let that stand.
Noo you deliberately make a stupid and provocative statement every time you enter this forum. We all have differing opinions about all sorts of thing, but you're essentially accusing this entire forum of being a home to racists. I suggest, politely, that it might be an idea to stop it.
I'm certainly not saying everyone on here is an islamophobe. Just that this place has an islamophobia problem. Like Labour having an antisemitism problem, when in reality it's a small minority who are the actual antisemites. If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
Then reasonable people here - the vast majority - will stop engaging with you.
[shrugs] Anybody who turns a blind eye to bigotry isn't "reasonable".
From the Beeb, at a photo-op this afternoon in Bermondsey 'Ms Swinson learned how to make a cheese and tomato pizza at Cafe Amisha. At the restaurant she's meeting EU citizens living in the UK to promote her party's campaign to stop Brexit." There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!
So she’s spent her day schmoozing people who won’t be voting in the election?
Comments
The polls may fluctuate but for Corbyn to even stand still be needs conservatives to vote labour and I just cannot see any conservative voter switching to Corbyn
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1195732276233035776?s=20
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1195733488839864320?s=20
So, for example, intervening to support the Kurds to defeat IS didn't require a high level of ruthlessness, because the Kurds provide a reliable bulwark of support. Intervening to support Assad is requiring more ruthlessness from the Russians, because the base of Assad's support is relatively narrow. But the base of the non-Islamist opposition to Assad is even narrower.
The general point about the four day week (if universally adopted) is that the NHS isn’t the only state service that would be stuffed.
Great reaction on the doorstep etc etc.
Although maybe they would cut the teaching week for pupils to four days as well?
I'm going to vote Lib Dem in this seat, not at all happy about it but I see that the issue is bigger than party politics this time around.
Only metaphorically, unlike the people in Grenfell.
I'd be suprised if Deltapoll didnt also show Tories taking loads of seats off Labour.
The important thing to watch is the marginals, so Reading East for instance.
Anything else is just middle class nonsense
Logged in again now and again told to change my password. Was sent the email to do it - I tried and got the following message:
"Failed to authenticate your password reset request. Try using the reset request form again".
That then happened again - finally with the 3rd email I managed to follow the procedure successfully.
So looks as if there are still problems.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/world/asia/china-xinjiang-documents.html
Not sure what the contract lengths are on the current franchises, but you can be sure a Corbyn government would let them all lapse rather than agreeing new ones or extensions.
I don't know if it would require a change in the law for the government to own new trains, rather than the rosco's having them. Potentially time, and executive authority, could nationalise the majority of the railways without legislation.
(Just to be clear, before I am brained by a ballistic turnip - this is a joke.)
There wasn't a pineapple in sight! Or in shot!
We finally have a culinary offence worse than pineapple on pizza.
(One I was guilty of for many years...)
They need to gain seats from Labour to get a majority. It's like Curtice said, if the Tories aren't winning a majority, they've lost, basically.
I'm not saying the result won't be interesting and eye-opening, I'm just saying that there are better seats to look at, if what you are interested in is seeing if the Tories will gain a majority.
If you don't like my daily greeting, skip over it. You know, in the same way that most of you skip over the islamophobia from the minority on here.
You still need to look out for other seats like Reading East, to see if your conclusion is correct - and it may well be, I have no idea - and hopefully the constituency polls tonight may help with that.
I still can't understand why you thought that was so controversial. All I want is for people irrespective of their faith to be left alone and not intimidated or bullied. Your remarkable outburst in response to that radical notion was... interesting.
To me it seems that if the Tories drop about 4 seats they're unable to govern. They'll probably lose that many in Scotland.
Can they take Labour seats? I'm doubtful that Johnson is the man to do it. But as we get closer to polling day we will see.
I see it going like this:
Tories largest party but down seats.
Labour is a minority Government and we have a referendum. Remain wins.
Another election is called.
And you always get some seats being gained by the loser.
Which is why:
1) Farage standing down in Con seats does matter - because even if Con wins a majority you should expect some Lab Gains from Con - so Farage standing down helps Con avoid some of those inevitable losses.
2) Reading West type results do matter - because if 2017 narrow Con wins become easy wins then they won't be in the narrow wins pool this time - which means other seats will be in the narrow wins pool this time.
Anybody who turns a blind eye to bigotry isn't "reasonable".