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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

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  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    Gabs2 said:

    Ah, I see the twitter of disgruntlement from BXP ex-candidates has begun. This gentleman was going to be standing in Crawley:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088

    Guys and gals, the BXP is dead as far as this election is concerned. It won't have any significant impact now.

    Wow. They had a Scientologist standing for them? How did that not make more news?
    It's Crawley -Scientology is based in East Grinstead so plenty of votes there locally for him to get from the faithful.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147
    Gabs2 said:

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    Germany manages to do it.
    Germany also has few to no world class universities.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,695
    Have we heard the last of the failure to exit on 31/10/19 as a weapon in this election?

    It wavered (depending on your political position) from occupying the ultimate destroy Boris position to a feeble and irrelevant construct of the opposition to Brexit.

    A week is a long time in politics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984

    Ah, I see the twitter of disgruntlement from BXP ex-candidates has begun. This gentleman was going to be standing in Crawley:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088

    Guys and gals, the BXP is dead as far as this election is concerned. It won't have any significant impact now.

    The L in Wayne Bayley's twitter handle is actually a capital i.

    There is an account spelled the same except for the correct L.

    My guess is it's not genuine.
    Looks like it is:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey
    Tsk, peddling fake news, Richard? :open_mouth:

    :p
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Gabs2 said:


    Wow. They had a Scientologist standing for them? How did that not make more news?

    Given the troubles even the major parties are having with candidates, probably inevitable BXP were going to have some right nutters in there, particularly in the no-chance seats.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    RobD said:

    Ah, I see the twitter of disgruntlement from BXP ex-candidates has begun. This gentleman was going to be standing in Crawley:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088

    Guys and gals, the BXP is dead as far as this election is concerned. It won't have any significant impact now.

    A Scientologist too.
    It's almost like the Brexit Party is some Kind of personal vanity project for Nigel Farage.

    Ex-PPC Wayne Bayley must feel like an absolute arse.
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    edited November 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    Germany manages to do it.
    So do many other countries. It's called "free education".

    Another peculiar feature of the British system is the way universities interview people to decide what "offer" to make them regarding what qualifications they will need if they are to be allowed in. Most countries don't do anything like that. (Which isn't to say that universities in some countries, such as Russia, don't sell places for large bribes.)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    Big_G said: "British Steel takeover confirmed.

    4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"

    What constituency?

    Scunthorpe"

    Thanks - interesting constituency to bet on. After deliberation - considering BXP are competing here and could do OK - I`ve taken the Evens on Labour with Betfair Sports. They would only take £30 though - which is pathetic.
  • It appears both fake wayne's arent exactly thrilled with nige's decision.
  • If I was a Tory, I’d feel uncomfortable being endorsed by Nigel Farage. It’ll make many Con voters think twice.

    Wishful thinking.

    Farage is in the process of capitulation. Johnson will gain...potentially significantly .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547

    camel said:

    Jonathan said:

    A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.

    More a case of Farage lying down and giving up, I think history will show.....
    It does look like throwing the towel in, in slow motion. They'll be withdrawing from labour held marginals by Friday.
    I expect many will and others will just canvas for Boris

    Nominations (and withdrawal of nominations) close this week at 4 pm Thursday. Expect a bit more action before then.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    camel said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G said: "British Steel takeover confirmed.

    4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"

    What constituency?

    Scunthorpe
    Scunny is another of those seats where there's a big labour town surrounded by lots of true blue countryside. Similar to Workington.
    Scunny and Donny are both changing dramatically. Lots of housing development, lots of massive distribution centres springing up. Scunny to fall this time, Donny not too far behind.....
  • Stocky said:

    12/1 W Hill that it will snow on election day.

    Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
  • For anyone missing their post-prandial fix of Labour in-fighting:

    https://twitter.com/syalrajeev/status/1193886169366482944
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
  • Ah, I see the twitter of disgruntlement from BXP ex-candidates has begun. This gentleman was going to be standing in Crawley:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088

    Guys and gals, the BXP is dead as far as this election is concerned. It won't have any significant impact now.

    The L in Wayne Bayley's twitter handle is actually a capital i.

    There is an account spelled the same except for the correct L.

    My guess is it's not genuine.
    Looks like it is:

    https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey
    That's the one with a capital I in the name. This one has an l: https://twitter.com/Wayne_Bayley

    But both accounts have neglible amount of Tweets and neglible amount of of followers/following.
  • LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.

    The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    Stocky said:

    Big_G said: "British Steel takeover confirmed.

    4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"

    What constituency?

    Scunthorpe
    Scunny is another of those seats where there's a big labour town surrounded by lots of true blue countryside. Similar to Workington.
    Scunny and Donny are both changing dramatically. Lots of housing development, lots of massive distribution centres springing up. Scunny to fall this time, Donny not too far behind.....
    Certainly if they follow the pattern of Brigg and Goole, which has been quite startling change from Lab comfortable to Tory safe seat in a generation.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    MaxPB said:

    Gabs2 said:

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    Germany manages to do it.
    Germany also has few to no world class universities.
    And actually has a sizeable manufacturing sector. It's worth it for STEM courses.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    I have no idea who either of them is.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula

    "...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."

    The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770
    But any deal beyond December 31st 2020 depends on paying money to the EU that we are not currently committed to giving to the EU.

    That makes things far harder than many people expect.
  • LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.

    The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
    I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.

    You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
  • eek said:

    But any deal beyond December 31st 2020 depends on paying money to the EU that we are not currently committed to giving to the EU.

    That makes things far harder than many people expect.
    Does it? Or does it give us leverage?
  • A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.

    The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
    I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.

    You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
    They are legally required to offer it to those students by EU law. I suspect it will change post Brexit.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Not sure that is in the Tories interest. Tice seems like he could be a Carswell type figure who could end up undermining Farage. Especially if he becomes a Tory at a later point once he is a popular local MP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    eek said:

    But any deal beyond December 31st 2020 depends on paying money to the EU that we are not currently committed to giving to the EU.

    That makes things far harder than many people expect.
    Johnson campaigned for the leadership saying he would withhold the £39bn but dropped that line without a whimper. He might get away with quietly paying up again.
  • MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Too late.
  • LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula

    "...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."

    The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
    Barnett was to eventually view the formula that he devised as unfair. In The Scotsman in January 2004 he wrote, "It was never meant to last this long, but it has gone on and on and it has become increasingly unfair to the regions of England. I didn't create this formula to give Scotland an advantage over the rest of the country when it comes to public funding."
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,950
    Gabs2 said:

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.

    The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
    I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.

    You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
    They are legally required to offer it to those students by EU law. I suspect it will change post Brexit.
    I honestly wouldn't put it past the SNP to contrive a justification for continuing free tuition for the EU27 but not the rest of the UK.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Can they not just axe his slot on the grounds that he's a knob?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984

    MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Too late.
    He was only a contender for the candidacy, not the PPC.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.

    A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
    Is it possibly a racist definition?
  • Wow. I wonder if we'll see dozens of Tory MPs refusing to stand against Nigel. If so then Nigel's played a blinder and has essentially turned himself into the Tory party's co-leader.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2019
    I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,377
    TOPPING said:

    Gabs2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I was just going to say that we need an @AndyJS to crunch the constituencies.

    The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
    I get the impression that Farage has been under enormous internal party pressure to not let Corbyn in and have Brexit cancelled. This is a big newsworthy moment that lets him say he is doing that, taking pressure off his back, while maintaining significant leverage to negotiate further.

    That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.

    Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.

    Yes there are a lot of assumptions. I start from the premise that as 12th Dec gets nearer then party loyalties will be the strongest factor.

    So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
    I'm never quite sure. Here in Scouseland, I once asked a staunch Evertonian.

    Forced choice - Weekend - Liverpool and Everton both LOSE, or Liverpool and Everton both WIN.
    Without a seconds hesitation, he'd rather they both lost, his hatred of Liverpool all consuming.

    Some Labour voters are very tribal, such that they hate the Tories so much they lose sight of what parties are on the left-right scale. Certainly, my brother, staunch 'Labour' supporter is going to vote for 'Nigel!'. He'll never vote Tory. They eat babies. But he'll vote Brexit Party, because they'll get Brexit 'sorted'.

    The fact the Brexit Party is led by an ex-Conservative, and has no policies except Brexit completely passes him by. He hates the Tories more than anything, and can't vote for them... but Nigel is okay.

    So, in summary. You could well be right. But there are some tribal Labour voters who lose sight of why they vote Labour and instead just become the 'anti-Tory' voters.
  • MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Too late.
    Thursday is the closing date.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984
    No longer an MEP, and not a peer? Sounds good.
  • Stocky said:

    12/1 W Hill that it will snow on election day.

    Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
    The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.

    The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
  • RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Too late.
    He was only a contender for the candidacy, not the PPC.
    OK. My 'Too Late' comment applied to the "No deals with Nige" rather than it being too late for a new Tory candidate being found.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    isam said:

    I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
    Not much of a vote deterrent where his party isn't standing... :smile:

    The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934

    MaxPB said:

    Gaurdian, via Guido:

    "Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."

    Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?

    Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
    Too late.
    Thursday is the closing date.
    There's still time to parachute in Nick Timothy.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That's wrong. Just by the absence of a BXP candidate the Conservatives are going to lose significantly fewer of their existing seats now. So they will also need to win fewer of those 50 Labour held seats than they needed to before. A net gain of around 10 seats for Johnson should be enough.

    And that's before considering the impact of this announcement in reducing the BXP national opinion poll share (to say <5% henceforth?). The BXP will have difficulty convincing Leave voters that they are a contender even in the seats they are standing in. </p>
    The other aspect is that if the Tories have to invest less in defence then they can deploy more on offence. Both in terms of seats but also on policy positioning
  • Is that, like, actually legal? Nigel is running rings around Boris. He's making an absolute mess of the Tory campaign.
  • In the froth over Farage we seem to have almost forgotten Thornberry's GE intervention on Corbyn and defence this morning.

    Did she just attempt to the throw the election away deliberately this morning?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
    Not much of a vote deterrent where his party isn't standing... :smile:

    The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
    I shouldn’t have thought that was the concern
  • AndyJS said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.

    A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
    Is it possibly a racist definition?
    Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.

    image
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
    Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
    Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
    Still an awfully long way to go though.

    It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
    Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum.
    Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
    Wait till the final week. Swinson could well adjust that to a referendum.

    When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
    Thar would be one hell of a u-turn in the space of a couple of months for the lib dems. Also the membership love revoke as a policy.
    Hardly a U-turn. The Lib Dems are in favour of a confirmatory referendum and of revoking Article 50, depending on the Parliamentary arithmetic. If there is a majority of Lib Dem MPs, then the country can go for the quick and simple solution. If there is a hung Parliament, then there may be another referendum, though this will take time to carry out. If there is a Tory majority, then Johnson & Farage will jump over the edge of the cliff, and take the country with them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,766
    I'm Wayne Bayles, yes I'm Wayne Bayley, all you other Wayne Bayleys are just imitating...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709


    I'm never quite sure. Here in Scouseland, I once asked a staunch Evertonian.

    Forced choice - Weekend - Liverpool and Everton both LOSE, or Liverpool and Everton both WIN.
    Without a seconds hesitation, he'd rather they both lost, his hatred of Liverpool all consuming.

    Some Labour voters are very tribal, such that they hate the Tories so much they lose sight of what parties are on the left-right scale. Certainly, my brother, staunch 'Labour' supporter is going to vote for 'Nigel!'. He'll never vote Tory. They eat babies. But he'll vote Brexit Party, because they'll get Brexit 'sorted'.

    The fact the Brexit Party is led by an ex-Conservative, and has no policies except Brexit completely passes him by. He hates the Tories more than anything, and can't vote for them... but Nigel is okay.

    So, in summary. You could well be right. But there are some tribal Labour voters who lose sight of why they vote Labour and instead just become the 'anti-Tory' voters.

    I enjoy your anecdotes from Labour's sole true heartland Liverpool.
    They definitely confirm every mental picture of the hardcore Labour hardcore leave vote I've got in my head though.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 784

    Stocky said:

    12/1 W Hill that it will snow on election day.

    Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
    The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.

    The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
    Snow was pretty widespread across much of Northern England for a lot of December 2010. Granted, it's not very likely to happen but it's not unheard of in the last ten or so years.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Is that, like, actually legal? Nigel is running rings around Boris. He's making an absolute mess of the Tory campaign.
    A 10-15 point lead seems a pretty good mess from the Tory perspective
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    In reference to the Farage announcement, I am sceptical this will have much impact. The Tories will have already earmarked the target seats they are concentrating their efforts upon. I doubt this announcement will change the campaign operations activity and targets. We have seen this before when the LD in 2010 did not change their focus despite the then popularity of Clegg and the LD. Some commentators do not really have much insight into fptp elections or how national electoral machines work...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
    Not much of a vote deterrent where his party isn't standing... :smile:

    The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
    I shouldn’t have thought that was the concern
    Given his verbosity ?
  • In the froth over Farage we seem to have almost forgotten Thornberry's GE intervention on Corbyn and defence this morning.

    Did she just attempt to the throw the election away deliberately this morning?

    https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1193797901417357314?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006

    AndyJS said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.

    A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
    Is it possibly a racist definition?
    Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.

    image
    Stringy bacon.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Stocky said:

    12/1 W Hill that it will snow on election day.

    Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
    The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.

    The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
    If we are in a westerly (wet and windy) regime then higher ground in parts of NI would be a good bet for snow. If more northerly then Tomintoul etc but anywhere on higher ground north of the Wash/Mersey line, if Easterley then anywhere down the east coast, especially Yorks/Lincs, Norfolk and Kent as well as Aberdeenshire
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    edited November 2019

    alb1on said:

    Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.

    Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
    I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.

    I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.

    You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,006
    Gabs2 said:

    Is that, like, actually legal? Nigel is running rings around Boris. He's making an absolute mess of the Tory campaign.
    A 10-15 point lead seems a pretty good mess from the Tory perspective
    An Eton mess ?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited November 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.

    A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
    Is it possibly a racist definition?
    Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.

    image
    https://memegenerator.net/img/images/16345628.jpg

    Here's one when he's not angry
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Stocky said:

    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.

    I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    Stocky said:

    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.

    Brexit Party is probably the best option in Don Valley if you want to stop Boris' deal getting through.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.

    Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
    I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.

    I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.

    You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
    I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
  • In the froth over Farage we seem to have almost forgotten Thornberry's GE intervention on Corbyn and defence this morning.

    Did she just attempt to the throw the election away deliberately this morning?

    https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1193797901417357314?s=20
    She has heard of Harry Truman right?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    edited November 2019
    I actually think Nigel should be in the Lords.

    Like it or not he is one of the most significant/influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20
    Istanbul twinned with Salisbury?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Stocky said:

    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.

    I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
    Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2019

    LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula

    "...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."

    The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
    Barnett was to eventually view the formula that he devised as unfair. In The Scotsman in January 2004 he wrote, "It was never meant to last this long, but it has gone on and on and it has become increasingly unfair to the regions of England. I didn't create this formula to give Scotland an advantage over the rest of the country when it comes to public funding."
    Yes, now read the rest of the article. That happened because the proportions used weren't updated as Scotland's population failed to grow as fast as England's.

    But Gordon Brown changed that. So the Barnett squeeze is now on. All we need is a bit of inflation.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2019
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
    Not much of a vote deterrent where his party isn't standing... :smile:

    The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
    I shouldn’t have thought that was the concern
    Given his verbosity ?
    No, they obviously see him as a threat.

    That the other parties are always desperate to deny him airtime whilst simultaneously saying he is a complete failure as his side wins referendums and Euro elections is one of my favourite political nerd contortions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    edited November 2019

    Stocky said:

    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.

    I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
    Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
    That'd be tricky as he's not standing there again. Campbell was hardly "voting against his principles" by voting for Brexit though. He's as anti-europe as Cash or Redwood.

    Neither was Flint I'd say (Though it's an easier argument to make than Campbell) - a eurosceptic who voted remain and accepted the result.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323

    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.

    Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
    I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.

    I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.

    You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
    I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
    Because one party states are amazing
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,377

    AndyJS said:

    Noo said:

    Stocky said:

    Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.

    A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
    Is it possibly a racist definition?
    Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.

    image
    I had one of those Greggs vegan sausage rolls at lunch time. Not bad. I didn't choke it out like that Gammon Piers Morgan.

    Does this make me a snowflake perhaps instead?
  • Fenman said:

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20

    A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.

    https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1193855016408375296?s=20
    Istanbul twinned with Salisbury?
    Most common assumption - a lot of Russian journalists have "fallen" from heights....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984
    DougSeal said:

    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.

    Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
    I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.

    I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.

    You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
    I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
    Because one party states are amazing
    There will be future elections.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,447

    In the froth over Farage we seem to have almost forgotten Thornberry's GE intervention on Corbyn and defence this morning.

    Did she just attempt to the throw the election away deliberately this morning?

    https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1193797901417357314?s=20
    Every election rolls round and every time I am shocked at the people who seem to be willing to press the button.

    I understand MAD theory is you should be seen to be willing to press the button, but seriously, no. Just because someone else would be willing to, doesn't mean you should. Someone else killing loads of civilians does not make it right to kill loads of civilians yourself.

    Considering the time of year as well, that we are all concerned that someone wouldn't just go "well, if we're all going to die anyway, I might as well get in my share" is fucking horrendous.

    My great nan lived through both wars, brought up her kids to survive the blitz when bombs fell on her house and in her neighbourhood. She died a few years ago at 102, and I had the benefit of a close relationship with her, seeing her pretty much weekly for almost 25 years. The horror of war made her a pacifist, she flinched at fireworks and would never buy her kids or grandkids toy guns. Alongside the young men whose lives were cut short by the stupidity of the ruling class, today I think of her.

    People foaming angry at the thought that Corbyn wouldn't press the button in their blood lust can go do one.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    In reference to the Farage announcement, I am sceptical this will have much impact. The Tories will have already earmarked the target seats they are concentrating their efforts upon. I doubt this announcement will change the campaign operations activity and targets. We have seen this before when the LD in 2010 did not change their focus despite the then popularity of Clegg and the LD. Some commentators do not really have much insight into fptp elections or how national electoral machines work...

    I mainly agree. But I can see a targetted message in some remain seats that have previously shown their disdain for Farage and his parties - Vote Tory, Get Farage. It would have to be done carefully, but there are quite a lot of tribal Conservative Remainers in seats like Guildford and Wimbledon who can be susceptible to such a message.
  • For Pb-ers who are easily offended, don't look at Ash Sackar's twitter profile @ayocaesar
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,293
    edited November 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    I actually think Nigel should be in the Lords.

    Like it or not he is one of the most influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
    Disagree. He's been influential by mastering the art of the not-always-accurate soundbite and winding people up on a single issue. Had he followed that through with getting elected in one of seven attempts or even producing a credible wider policy platform, I might have given him a few points in "being in the slightest bit arsed about how the country's run" column. As things stand, he has a big fat zero, which means it's a no from me.

    Far better qualified to spaff off for an hour or two off-peak on LBC.

    (EDIT to add: which isn't to say he *hasn't* been influential. But his appointment would not be made on the grounds of bringing the greatest minds and most effective people into governance)
  • RH1992 said:

    Stocky said:

    12/1 W Hill that it will snow on election day.

    Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
    The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.

    The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
    Snow was pretty widespread across much of Northern England for a lot of December 2010. Granted, it's not very likely to happen but it's not unheard of in the last ten or so years.
    Sure. It's more likely than in July, but it's not 12/1 likely in London on election day.
  • LDs should probably shut up about tuition fees forevvah, but if not they could at least aim not to talk pish.

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20

    Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.

    Whole country can't follow that model.
    The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.

    The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
    I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.

    You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
    'When oh when will the English stop whining and discover the balls to do something about the *oppressive* Barnett formula that they themselves thought up?'

    'Sorry pal, they've still to finish their MASSIVE whine about the *oppressive* EU. Could be years yet.'
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    I actually think Nigel should be in the Lords.

    Like it or not he is one of the most influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
    He is not the most influencial politician in the last 50 years. Thatcher and Blair have had much more influence on politics and peoples lives. Farage has never won a Westminster seat or been a member of the executive. Pressure groups and single issue parties have some influence but Thatcher for instance changed the whole economy for good or ill. Gin, you have become too focused on Brexit and it has warped your judgement! :wink:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    I see Jezza & Jo are speaking at the CBI annual conference next Monday.

    Not Bozo.

    I suppose someone who says "F Business" wouldn't be welcome.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"

    That`s a good point - I think that they are.

    UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.

    I think Flint is likely to hold on.

    I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
    Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
    That'd be tricky as he's not standing there again. Campbell was hardly "voting against his principles" by voting for Brexit though. He's as anti-europe as Cash or Redwood.

    I think Ronnie has decided to stand again.

    He has revoked his original pledge to stand down.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DougSeal said:

    alb1on said:

    alb1on said:

    Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.

    Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
    I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.

    I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.

    You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
    I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
    Because one party states are amazing
    The void will be filled by something that hasn't betrayed the working class and gorged itself on racism and terrorist sympathy
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,377
    Pulpstar said:

    I enjoy your anecdotes from Labour's sole true heartland Liverpool.
    They definitely confirm every mental picture of the hardcore Labour hardcore leave vote I've got in my head though.

    WE HATE THE TORIES! THEY EAT BABIES! THEY MURDER SCOUSERS!




This discussion has been closed.