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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories
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MarqueeMark will be pleased.
Yes, I agree - I`ve just sold LibDem seats on Betfair over under at 25.5 @ 4.3 and also backed LibDem vote % at 10 - 14.99% at 4.1
Whoever said we'd become a leper colony somewhere in the North Atlantic wasn't joking.
I dearly want Gyimah to fail.
But I really couldn't ever see them standing if it in any way gave Dr. Sarah Wollaston an improved chance of staying an MP. Her actions really have fired up Brexiteers. Along with Grieve and Soubry, she really fires up the gammon blood pressure. And although Totnes itself might be Wollaston-vegan, there's a lot of Tory gammon in the rest of the constituency.....)
I've missed about 24 hours of news due to football and work. Seems things have moved at quite a pace!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa7nSzCiGXk
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1193883346646052865
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
Not saying it will happen, but who knows?
In theory, BXP could stand in every other seat though it seems some other seats aren't going to be contested.
Having bought Conservative seats at 325 I'm not too bothered from a punting angle but presumably BXP aren't folding up - they will be looking at the negotiations for the future trade and political arrangements for the EU and seeing if we can crash out to WTO on 31/12/20 rather than 31/10/19. Boris Johnson refuses to discount that possibility of course.
Please PBers - any other constituency tips you want to share in light of the news??
Who can blame them, when Lab hasn't got a frigging clue what its policy is.
That is a massive change to a few weeks ago where he was giving it that only real brexit is via BXP.
No - good point - but I saw that % range as value anyway. I think LDs will perform worse than many expect in this election.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
We've already seen with the Workington poll that the Tories are capable of making gains with or without BXP standing.
I am still struggling to come to terms with how Labour are doing. And I speak as someone who watched the results in Scotland in 2015 in disbelief. Will we see something similar in swathes of England outside the cities? Surely stop the (evil) Tory rallying cry has not lost all resonance?
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1193884851776184320
The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
I think it's to do with the memory of Election 2017 and I explore it in my forthcoming piece.
BXP will be squeezed further in these seats but the problem we have now is if they only stand in 300 seats we can read even less in how they might effect the election from National Polling as many people will say they vote BXP when they don't have that choice.
I think the Tories can win the election with 20-30 gains from Labour. But I'm not at all sure they've that many gains in them.
My hunch is that the Lib Dem vote will be flakier than many believe, but the Labour vote will be much stickier.
But certain sections of the media are definitely indulging in this too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers
Not a normal definition.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1193880701977989120?s=20
The unprecedented result for Labour, the perfect storm, the 2015-style wipeout, would be the one that sent them below 150 seats. The Liberal Democrats have to do a bit better before that's on the cards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dezv7X1VLOA
Which is greater, Tories that will vote BXP or Labour leavers who would not countenance a blue vote but will vote BXP? If the latter then it's a net positive for Boris, if the former then job becomes harder
Not that it matters. I'd rather be a successful independent nation than part of a superpower we don't need to be a part of. I'd rather be Canadian than American, I'd rather be English than European.
And that's before considering the impact of this announcement in reducing the BXP national opinion poll share (to say <5% henceforth?). The BXP will have difficulty convincing Leave voters that they are a contender even in the seats they are standing in.
As May with a Conservative/DUP majority couldn't get a deal through because of the ERG don't be sure that Boris will be able to either.
That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.
Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.
A decade ago China was less powerful than now and Europe was more powerful than now having not lost the United Kingdom. Oops!
322 seats is enough to 'get Brexit done'.
The way to respond to BXP standing down is to stand down where libdems can win not to rant on about a Trump-Thatcher conspiracy. Why is he so useless?
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1193888404343275521
But i'm happy because his idyocy means Tories will win more seats.
When you put it like that it's obvious that the EU is not a nascent superpower let alone as that video is headlined more of a superpower than China!
The way to respond to BXP standing down is to stand down where libdems can win not to rant on about a Trump-Thatcher conspiracy. Why is he so useless?"
I think that there is a rule of some sort in the Labour constitution that they have to compete in every constituency. Can anyone confirm?
I expect that St. Ives will be a Tory hold, and Totnes will be lost. NE Fife should be gained, on the back of Unionist tactical voting. St. Alban's looks a likely win (but I'm always cautious about calling that seat). Cambridge should be a win, and there will probably be a shock result or two in the London Stockbroker Belt. Hornsey & Wood Green, Hampstead & Kilburn, and other affluent Remain seats in London must be good prospects. All in all, I'd expect them to be on about two dozen seats.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1193890952827539456
Looking at it I'm struggling to work out where that Brexit vote is coming from unless the Lib Dem vote is from the Tory switches..
Although there's still plenty of time left for things to go horribly wrong, of course.
Why should Labour try to help the Lib Dems if there's no quid pro quo?
Note: your answer must not include the word "Turkey".
Nonetheless, as a (former) Labour member and activist from 1979 to 2018, whose recollection of Letwin, Grieve, Clarke and Hammond etc goes back much further than their role in the recent Brexit-related shambles, I am struggling to come to terms with how getting rid of them can in any way be seen as a "win for the right".
Hammond. The Chancellor who continued the benefit freeze from 2016 to 2019. Now thought of as an ally by many claiming to be on the left. It should be shadenfreude and good riddance.
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?