DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
I don't have an hour and a half to waste watching a video from a decade ago that is quite clearly ludicrous now.
A decade ago China was less powerful than now and Europe was more powerful than now having not lost the United Kingdom. Oops!
The essence is that in a world of positive-sum rather than zero-sum conflict, powers that are able to set the terms of multilateral deals are the ones with the ability to project their influence, and when you put it like that, it's obvious that the EU is a nascent superpower.
The EU wasn't even able to convince its own most powerful military nation to remain in the union.
When you put it like that it's obvious that the EU is not a nascent superpower let alone as that video is headlined more of a superpower than China!
It was able to coerce the so-called most powerful military nation into agreeing to an internal customs border.
No the UK leaves the EU customs border whole and entire.
In a principle that dates back decades now there will be some devolution to Stormont for special arrangements for NI as was wanted by the voters of NI. If the voters of NI wish to end that they can do so. Up to our compatriots there in the ballot box not up to a so-called "superpower"
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
OT election betting anecdote from the autobiography, Winning Against the Odds, of Tory & Ukip funder Stuart Wheeler. It involves Shadsy's grandad and a man named Boris.
I had shown in different circumstances that I could hide my excitement. On the night of the 1966 general election, when the Liberals had been expected to make substantial gains –- winning forty or fifty seats -– I was in the Ladbroke Club in London with Rodney Leach.
About three quarters of an hour after the polls closed, when two or three results were known, I saw on the television that a prediction had flashed up, for a matter of seconds, that the Liberals would win only about fourteen seats. There was a representative of Ladbrokes, the bookmakers, in the club. I went over and asked if they were still taking bets on Liberal seats. He said that they were, in groups of five.
I asked him the odds for the group eleven to fifteen: he rang through to his office on one of those old-fashioned telephones and told me 16 to 1. It was clear Ladbrokes had not seen the TV prediction.
I had to decide quickly what the largest bet was that would not alert Ladbrokes. ‘I’ll have a couple of hundred on that, please.’ He telephoned through again as I stood there, trying to appear calm. ‘Yes, that’ll be fine, sir.’ I was just in time: within sixty seconds they had changed the odds to evens.
A few minutes later, as I sat with Rodney in a corner, gloating over my expected triumph, we were accosted by Boris Schapiro, who was running the club at the time. Boris could always sniff out even the smallest chance of making money, and something about my manner attracted his attention. ‘What have you been doing, Stuart? What’s all this about?’
For once in my life I did something quite shrewd. I explained the situation to him, and offered him £10 of the £200 bet. I did not want any difficulties when it came to getting paid, and having the man who ran the club on my side seemed a good idea. The Liberals took twelve seats: so I had won.
I was just going to say that we need an @AndyJS to crunch the constituencies.
The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
I get the impression that Farage has been under enormous internal party pressure to not let Corbyn in and have Brexit cancelled. This is a big newsworthy moment that lets him say he is doing that, taking pressure off his back, while maintaining significant leverage to negotiate further.
That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.
Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.
Yes there are a lot of assumptions. I start from the premise that as 12th Dec gets nearer then party loyalties will be the strongest factor.
So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
EU Parliament is still sitting after the election. If the election result come in with a healthy majority and Boris says in the aftermath we will leave on NYE then the EU Parliament has enough time to ratify.
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Possible but not likely. There will be a fair bit of legislation to get through the new Parliament. Opposition will be less of a problem but there will be more time to get it right. I am not sure Boris will see an upside in rushing if he gets his majority. January is soon enough.
Sean_F said: "WRT Lib Dem prospects, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Sheffield Hallam, and South Cambs. must be more or less nailed on. That takes them up to 16. ...All in all, I'd expect them to be on about two dozen seats."
Yes. I was predicting 30-33 seats for the Lib Dems, but have revised down to 23-26.
I was just going to say that we need an @AndyJS to crunch the constituencies.
The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
I get the impression that Farage has been under enormous internal party pressure to not let Corbyn in and have Brexit cancelled. This is a big newsworthy moment that lets him say he is doing that, taking pressure off his back, while maintaining significant leverage to negotiate further.
That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.
Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.
Yes there are a lot of assumptions. I start from the premise that as 12th Dec gets nearer then party loyalties will be the strongest factor.
So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
Before the referendum UKIP had done an impressive job of convincing people they were economically mixed, and BXP have done that since the beginning. I think you overestimate the degree of attention from low information working class voters.
I was just going to say that we need an @AndyJS to crunch the constituencies.
The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
I get the impression that Farage has been under enormous internal party pressure to not let Corbyn in and have Brexit cancelled. This is a big newsworthy moment that lets him say he is doing that, taking pressure off his back, while maintaining significant leverage to negotiate further.
That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.
Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.
Yes there are a lot of assumptions. I start from the premise that as 12th Dec gets nearer then party loyalties will be the strongest factor.
So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
If their leftish sympathies were weak enough to allow them to vote BXP as a first choice, prioritising Brexit above everything else, then many of them will also be capable of voting Conservative as a second best.
WRT Lib Dem prospects, Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Sheffield Hallam, and South Cambs. must be more or less nailed on. That takes them up to 16.
I expect that St. Ives will be a Tory hold, and Totnes will be lost. NE Fife should be gained, on the back of Unionist tactical voting. St. Alban's looks a likely win (but I'm always cautious about calling that seat). Cambridge should be a win, and there will probably be a shock result or two in the London Stockbroker Belt. Hornsey & Wood Green, Hampstead & Kilburn, and other affluent Remain seats in London must be good prospects. All in all, I'd expect them to be on about two dozen seats.
I'd rate St Alban's as a much better chance than South Cambs, and I'm sticking to my guns re: North Norfolk heading the other way.
In any event, I'm cautiously confident that LD net gains from Con should be in single figures.
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
The US is already a superpower, China is becoming one via economic growth, urbanisation, etc. Where's the EU's growth coming from to take them "incipient" to "actual"?
Note: your answer must not include the word "Turkey".
Moreover we kept being assured that the EU was not travelling the road to a single nation and that Cameron's deal would keep us out of any further closer union - which would be a pre-requisite for the EU being a 'Superpower'. It seems that in spite of their previous claims to the Europhiles they are now objecting to us not being able to play the role of Ukraine to the EU's Soviet Union or Texas to the USA.
We’ll have to wait and see how this effects the polling .
Really depends how the opposition play this . Not standing in 317 seats is by extension endorsing the Tory candidate , if the opposition can tie them together as someone earlier said Nigel Farages Conservative candidate this could be a problem for the Tories .
Would be funny if it meant a surge in BXP polling on the basis they'll be in fewer seats but Brexiters wont fear voting for them will harm brexit, ending the squeeze.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
So, why would Nigel pass up his best chance of getting elected as an MP , after all his previous attempts, and why would he stand down candidates when the Tories are offering the electorate something which is decidedly NOT BREXIT?
Looking at it I'm struggling to work out where that Brexit vote is coming from unless the Lib Dem vote is from the Tory switches..
Would suggest plenty of good second places for the yellows, but there are no silver medals to be won under FPTP. Labour's Albanian majorities should see them home in most of their urban redoubts.
And think they will stand down in some of those as well.
Why the hell does he think that the Tories need to win 50 Labour marginals to get a majority? The only reason I can think of is that they would need to lose 40 seats to the LibDems/SNP. That seems way too high.
I think he is underestimating the benefit of replacing people like Letwin, Grieve, Clarke, Stewart, Hammond etc with people who will actually vote for government policy. There will be a series of wins for Boris on the night that are not official gains.
Fair point in terms of the arithmetic.
Nonetheless, as a (former) Labour member and activist from 1979 to 2018, whose recollection of Letwin, Grieve, Clarke and Hammond etc goes back much further than their role in the recent Brexit-related shambles, I am struggling to come to terms with how getting rid of them can in any way be seen as a "win for the right".
Hammond. The Chancellor who continued the benefit freeze from 2016 to 2019. Now thought of as an ally by many claiming to be on the left. It should be shadenfreude and good riddance.
Hammond was the worst example of a Tory Chancellor. Careful with the books but completely unimaginative and completely lacking in empathy for the worst off, apparently indifferent to the consequences of his policies. I for one am glad to see the back of him although Javid is looking a somewhat uncertain replacement.
If I was a Tory, I’d feel uncomfortable being endorsed by Nigel Farage. It’ll make many Con voters think twice.
Hopefully, he's been sufficiently ungracious about doing so already that this risk is mitigated to some extent. Some further rows within the party about this decision over the next few weeks would be nice, too.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
Interestingly, I'm beginning to shift the other way. I'm thinking my initial forecast of 21 seats (+9) is a bit skinny, in the context of (a) the libdems holding on at 16% in almost every poll, and (b) them being able to paint the Tories as Farage No Dealers in the South East and London. (I don't think the libdems ever had any chance in the South West, which is where the Brexit Party standing down will have the biggest effect.)
That makes sense to me - and the other possible plus for them is that the fear of 'vote Lib Dem and risk Corbyn' must be greatly reduced. How many votes this might influence, I have no idea, but it's not as though it hasn't been regularly voiced.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Second referendum pledge would have got them more votes, as it in minds of remainers (with plenty of polling justification) they would win it and it is democratic outcome.
And think they will stand down in some of those as well.
Why the hell does he think that the Tories need to win 50 Labour marginals to get a majority? The only reason I can think of is that they would need to lose 40 seats to the LibDems/SNP. That seems way too high.
I think he is underestimating the benefit of replacing people like Letwin, Grieve, Clarke, Stewart, Hammond etc with people who will actually vote for government policy. There will be a series of wins for Boris on the night that are not official gains.
Who on earth is going to rebel in the new Tory post 2019 party ? There's one likely rebel in the entire HoC on Brexit now - and that's Caroline Flint (Who if the Tories defeat they'll have a majority anyway)
322 seats is enough to 'get Brexit done'.
Eventually rebels will emerge again but the immediate aftermath would be none - the ruthlessness of cutting out the no deal rebels sees to .
If I was a Tory, I’d feel uncomfortable being endorsed by Nigel Farage. It’ll make many Con voters think twice.
If I was an SNP member I'd be uncomfortable being supported by the IRA etc...
Ultimately Boris didn't court Nige, if this had come about because it done kind of deal and Tory candidates were stepping down in favour of Nige then, yes, that would be a disaster. As it stands, Nige just gave in. If anything it makes Bozza look better that he point blank refused any kind of alliance.
Surely any sensible BXP candidate in very tight tory marginal seats they just lost due to May in 2017 will not stand either eg Canterbury, Kensington. If Brexit is the objective , a bit more witnessing of the list is needed.
Areas like that are why remainers can hope this still helps.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
Interestingly, I'm beginning to shift the other way. I'm thinking my initial forecast of 21 seats (+9) is a bit skinny, in the context of (a) the libdems holding on at 16% in almost every poll, and (b) them being able to paint the Tories as Farage No Dealers in the South East and London. (I don't think the libdems ever had any chance in the South West, which is where the Brexit Party standing down will have the biggest effect.)
But that depends critically on Tory LD soft remain waverers believing that installing extra Lib Dems won't lead to a Corbyn Government. Boris has the Deal to offer as insurance against No Deal. Swinson only has her word as insurance against Corbyn. And the LD position in this respect is easily debunked
I'd trust Boris' deal much less than Swinson's assurance in this particular case.
The 'Deal' merely moves the no Deal risk back by twelve months.
Who can blame them, when Lab hasn't got a frigging clue what its policy is.
I suspect more voters will accept that point now though. Corbyn and labour officially policy be damned, labour are needed to remain and I think voters will get that.
So, why would Nigel pass up his best chance of getting elected as an MP , after all his previous attempts, and why would he stand down candidates when the Tories are offering the electorate something which is decidedly NOT BREXIT?
Step forward Lord Farage of Brussels.
The Ambassadorship to Washington still remains vacant, I believe? 😁
Surely any sensible BXP candidate in very tight tory marginal seats they just lost due to May in 2017 will not stand either eg Canterbury, Kensington. If Brexit is the objective , a bit more witnessing of the list is needed.
Areas like that are why remainers can hope this still helps.
I still think in a few cases like that a few Brexit candidate papers might be cases of, oh dear, just missed the filing deadline....what a pity.....
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
Looking at it I'm struggling to work out where that Brexit vote is coming from unless the Lib Dem vote is from the Tory switches..
Would suggest plenty of good second places for the yellows, but there are no silver medals to be won under FPTP. Labour's Albanian majorities should see them home in most of their urban redoubts.
That's interesting. Does that bring eg Manchester Withington into play?
I don't have an hour and a half to waste watching a video from a decade ago that is quite clearly ludicrous now.
A decade ago China was less powerful than now and Europe was more powerful than now having not lost the United Kingdom. Oops!
The essence is that in a world of positive-sum rather than zero-sum conflict, powers that are able to set the terms of multilateral deals are the ones with the ability to project their influence, and when you put it like that, it's obvious that the EU is a nascent superpower.
The EU wasn't even able to convince its own most powerful military nation and on many projection the future largest economy in Europe to remain in the union.
When you put it like that it's obvious that the EU is not a nascent superpower let alone as that video is headlined more of a superpower than China!
The EU was able to force its “most powerful military nation” to impose an internal customs barrier on itself. You are deluded. We are nothing and about to get smaller.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote.
Over 100000 under-25s registered within two days of the election being called, 60% up on 2017. That's pretty good organisation.
Some students, able to vote in either of two constituencies, will vote where their vote is more effective, e.g. having used this tool.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
If Boris ends up with a very slender majority he should be gracious - and send Jo Swinson a "Thank you!" card.....
Who can blame them, when Lab hasn't got a frigging clue what its policy is.
I suspect more voters will accept that point now though. Corbyn and labour officially policy be damned, labour are needed to remain and I think voters will get that.
Then it comes back around to the same old dilemma. What do remain-leaning voters fear most, Brexit or Prime Minister Corbyn?
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
Interestingly, I'm beginning to shift the other way. I'm thinking my initial forecast of 21 seats (+9) is a bit skinny, in the context of (a) the libdems holding on at 16% in almost every poll, and (b) them being able to paint the Tories as Farage No Dealers in the South East and London. (I don't think the libdems ever had any chance in the South West, which is where the Brexit Party standing down will have the biggest effect.)
But that depends critically on Tory LD soft remain waverers believing that installing extra Lib Dems won't lead to a Corbyn Government. Boris has the Deal to offer as insurance against No Deal. Swinson only has her word as insurance against Corbyn. And the LD position in this respect is easily debunked
I'd trust Boris' deal much less than Swinson's assurance in this particular case.
The 'Deal' merely moves the no Deal risk back by twelve months.
How many casual observers will make this distinction? The Parliamentary rebellion centred on the fear of No Deal. Now Boris Johnson has a Deal to sell, and thus the poison is drawn. The calculation must be that, for a very great number of middling voters who are not very interested in Brexit, not that bothered about Europe one way or another, and therefore just want a sensible compromise and an end to the boring arguments, this will be enough.
Whether it is an end to the boring arguments is neither here nor there. It only has to be perceived as such.
There hasn't been an endorsement by Farage, indeed quite the opposite, he's repeated his complaint that the Boris deal is awful and not really Brexit. So the hope by opponents of Boris that the Farage 'endorsement' will damage the Conservatives is simple wishful thinking.
More interesting I think is this tweet, echoing a post made on the previous thread by @Jamei:
I don't have an hour and a half to waste watching a video from a decade ago that is quite clearly ludicrous now.
A decade ago China was less powerful than now and Europe was more powerful than now having not lost the United Kingdom. Oops!
The essence is that in a world of positive-sum rather than zero-sum conflict, powers that are able to set the terms of multilateral deals are the ones with the ability to project their influence, and when you put it like that, it's obvious that the EU is a nascent superpower.
The EU wasn't even able to convince its own most powerful military nation to remain in the union.
When you put it like that it's obvious that the EU is not a nascent superpower let alone as that video is headlined more of a superpower than China!
It was able to coerce the so-called most powerful military nation into agreeing to an internal customs border.
No the UK leaves the EU customs border whole and entire.
In a principle that dates back decades now there will be some devolution to Stormont for special arrangements for NI as was wanted by the voters of NI. If the voters of NI wish to end that they can do so. Up to our compatriots there in the ballot box not up to a so-called "superpower"
That’s dissembling. And also bollocks. If you seriously believe we are leaving the EU Customs Union “whole and entire” I have a lovely tower in the middle of Paris to sell you.
So, why would Nigel pass up his best chance of getting elected as an MP , after all his previous attempts, and why would he stand down candidates when the Tories are offering the electorate something which is decidedly NOT BREXIT?
Step forward Lord Farage of Brussels.
The Ambassadorship to Washington still remains vacant, I believe? 😁
What about the one to Outer Mongolia? Do we have a "man in Ulan Batar"?
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
EU Parliament is still sitting after the election. If the election result come in with a healthy majority and Boris says in the aftermath we will leave on NYE then the EU Parliament has enough time to ratify.
What's the advantage to Johnson of intruding on NYE rather than sticking to January 31st?
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
Difference is that China in the 80s wasn't reaching its potential, now it is growing, has a growing population, is united and has a military.
Europe is shrinking, has a shrinking population, still has no military and isn't united.
As a percentage of Global GDP the EU is only going to go down not up from here.
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
Europe is already well on its way to becoming an irrelevant but reasonably prosperous back water of limited and declining economic, political or military importance in world affairs, the Nordic countries writ large. Frankly, there are worse fates. It should remain one of the better places on the planet to live, as will the UK.
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
EU Parliament is still sitting after the election. If the election result come in with a healthy majority and Boris says in the aftermath we will leave on NYE then the EU Parliament has enough time to ratify.
What's the advantage to Johnson of intruding on NYE rather than sticking to January 31st?
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Wait till the final week then a CON majority equals certain Brexit.
Good point. I think this campaign could potentially see unusually large late swings.
Agree with that - and in any direction.
I think we'll see:
- genuine indecision at the fringes (Con-BXP; Con-LD; Lab-BXP etc). - probably quite a few shades of "shy X" (especially business-minded Tories who think Boris has landed too hard; and outwardly-supportive Labour types who nevertheless hate the idea of Corbyn in power) - people being steered by the polls towards the end.. "too close to call - better do X"; "don't want a landslide Tory (or Lab!) win - better do Y" - Changing perceptions of what minority party A will do to support/frustrate larger party B.
(All of which are inter-related and probably happen to an extent anyway.. but I think this election will see a lot of it)
I think today's BXP change is helpful to Johnson but not enormously without including northern Lab marginals. And I think the broad 'landing zone' for election day is Tories short by 10 (vaguely standstill) to Tory maj 50 because I think the polls will narrow.
Any majority would probably get the Johnson deal through. There might be problems later with a narrow one if there's a cliff-edge decision on the future relationship. Though a new speaker, a more cohesive PCP and less opportunity for backbench hijacks will lessen the opportunity to gum up the house.
There hasn't been an endorsement by Farage, indeed quite the opposite, he's repeated his complaint that the Boris deal is awful and not really Brexit. So the hope by opponents of Boris that the Farage 'endorsement' will damage the Conservatives is simple wishful thinking.
More interesting I think is this tweet, echoing a post made on the previous thread by @Jamei:
That is the real reason why this announcement should be seen as helping Boris.
Of course, the great imponderable is whether, in fact, the Brexit Party is more a help or a hindrance in those all-important Con-Lab duels. If more of their votes are coming from never- Tory Labour defectors than ultra-Brexiteer Tory defectors, then their presence is a net benefit to the Government.
I notice that in your interpretation of polls, that you often multiply out the effect of the don't knows but other times you keep the don't knows as a valid response.
If I was a Tory, I’d feel uncomfortable being endorsed by Nigel Farage. It’ll make many Con voters think twice.
An endorsement is given, not always requested and many times they are from sources that you would prefer not to endorse you.
I'm not convinced that Farage hasn't been given a nod or wink that he'll get something from a grateful Tory government.
Innuendo and insinuation are the bedfellows of any endorsement. It would be foolhardy of the Tory party to offer any direct and attributable benefit to BXP / N Farage for this,
Up to this point the line was clear, The Tory party will make no deal or pact. For their sakes I hope they have stuck to that, as if there was chicanery here it will backfire with a force of something like e=mc2 where m=the mass of Boris Johnson.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Wait till the final week. Swinson could well adjust that to a referendum.
When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.
More a case of Farage lying down and giving up, I think history will show.....
It does look like throwing the towel in, in slow motion. They'll be withdrawing from labour held marginals by Friday.
As I said, let's see where they end up putting up candidates. Fewer than you might expect from Farage today is certainly my guess. 100 Tory no-hoper seats is my guess.
A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.
It's his choice not to stand against them, not theirs.
Do you really believe that?
It's true. He is lying down with them. The issue is whether they should be appalled they are in such a place he chooses to do so.
It may be semantics, but you can see it as reflecting worse on the Tories - it's easy to countenance working with someone you don't want to if you must. But if they back you by choice it says more about where you are.
Either way its not a full throated endorsement and he might cost the tories yet, hence the excitement of some.
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
Difference is that China in the 80s wasn't reaching its potential, now it is growing, has a growing population, is united and has a military.
Europe is shrinking, has a shrinking population, still has no military and isn't united.
As a percentage of Global GDP the EU is only going to go down not up from here.
Read, man, read before posting! China before the Eighties was not reaching its potential. Now Europe is uniting, probably against us given we will be a rival on their doorstep, and demographic trends change - as then did in China whose population was actually shrinking as a result of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
We have been and always will be a part of Europe either (like now) as a rebellious, friendless, sulky province or a proud member of its family of nations sitting in the EU Council. Europe will outlast the U.K. - in our lifetimes probably.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Wait till the final week. Swinson could well adjust that to a referendum.
When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
Thar would be one hell of a u-turn in the space of a couple of months for the lib dems. Also the membership love revoke as a policy.
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
EU Parliament is still sitting after the election. If the election result come in with a healthy majority and Boris says in the aftermath we will leave on NYE then the EU Parliament has enough time to ratify.
What's the advantage to Johnson of intruding on NYE rather than sticking to January 31st?
Why "sticking"? 31 January is the current No Deal default exit date. As far as I know it hasn't been proposed to write it into the agreement as the new Deal exit date.
Boris must surely propose some Deal date or other to the electorate? Or is he so unsure about his Deal that his main thing will be to promise that Brexit will happen BY 31 Jan at the latest?
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.
It's his choice not to stand against them, not theirs.
Do you really believe that?
It's true. He is lying down with them. The issue is whether they should be appalled they are in such a place he chooses to do so.
It may be semantics, but you can see it as reflecting worse on the Tories - it's easy to countenance working with someone you don't want to if you must. But if they back you by choice it says more about where you are.
Either way its not a full throated endorsement and he might cost the tories yet, hence the excitement of some.
So nothing was facilitated? No conversation was had? No assurances given? Pull the other one.
DavidL said: "That's my view. And when you add in those not standing again and those who are independents, Tiggers or Lib Dems you have the most united and coherent Tory party that we have seen for a very long time, for good or for ill. Boris may eventually have problems with the ERG as we come near to the end of the transition but right now there is no question what needs to be done and how it is to be done."
A really long shot this - but Betfair Exchange has 33/1 on Brexit happening in 2019. Possible?
Can't be done as the EU Parliament breaks up before the UK Parliament could vote things through.
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
EU Parliament is still sitting after the election. If the election result come in with a healthy majority and Boris says in the aftermath we will leave on NYE then the EU Parliament has enough time to ratify.
What's the advantage to Johnson of intruding on NYE rather than sticking to January 31st?
Quite. Any cost to Boris of Jan 31 has already been forfeited/burned-in. And in any case.. when the next FTPA election comes in Dec 2024 (!), people won't be arguing over whether we left on Dec 31 or Jan 31.
Its Remainers that want to keep us in the company of parties like Vox. Tories are trying to get us away from them.
It’s people like you who want us to be more closely aligned with the joys of the US Republican Party
No I don't. I want us to be an independent country on the global stage not aligned with anybody overseas.
If I was an American I'd vote Democrat unless they choose someone crazy like Warren or Sanders in which case I'd probably vote Libertarian. I don't like anything to do with the modern GOP - the GOP I could like was the party of Reagan not Trump.
Yes but we’re too small and weak to compete on the global stage. We are going to be surrounded on all sides by a growing superpower while we decline even further into irrelevance. All we can do is accept scraps of the Yanks table.
What superpower? We're not surrounded by either USA [the worlds only current superpower] or China [the worlds next superpower].
We are quite big and agile enough to compete on the global stage.
We will be surrounded on all sides by the EU which is an incipient superpower. Europe is growing, the U.K. is dying. Harking back to our ties with places like Australia is like an pasty, terminally ill ex-boyfriend looking to get back with the ex he dumped when she has happily moved on to to bronzed Pacific hunks.
LMAO! You think Europe is a superpower?
Europe had superpowers until WWII, the idea of Europe as a power died decades ago. Europe is dying, European share of population, power and global GDP is in a complete downward trend.
Can you read? Seems not. I said incipient. What you say about Europe is what they used to say about China before the Eighties.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
Europe is already well on its way to becoming an irrelevant but reasonably prosperous back water of limited and declining economic, political or military importance in world affairs, the Nordic countries writ large.
If you mean the EU then even if Britain leaves the only country with a bigger GDP than the EU by IMF figures will be the US. But when there's fog in the Channel I guess they feel terribly cut off.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
I never understand how that scottish uni fee system is legal.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
I don't understand this argument.
The only way the Lib Dems could put the policy into practice would be by winning a majority a the election. For that to happen would require a shift in votes of monstrous proportions indicating a change in the "will of the people".
To call running on the policy 'undemocratic' is simply nonsensical.
A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.
It's his choice not to stand against them, not theirs.
Do you really believe that?
It's true. He is lying down with them. The issue is whether they should be appalled they are in such a place he chooses to do so.
It may be semantics, but you can see it as reflecting worse on the Tories - it's easy to countenance working with someone you don't want to if you must. But if they back you by choice it says more about where you are.
Either way its not a full throated endorsement and he might cost the tories yet, hence the excitement of some.
So nothing was facilitated? No conversation was had? No assurances given? Pull the other one.
I am sure journalists are currently digging and digging to try and find out.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas.
Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority.
Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased.
Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Wait till the final week. Swinson could well adjust that to a referendum.
When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
Thar would be one hell of a u-turn in the space of a couple of months for the lib dems. Also the membership love revoke as a policy.
Is it a U Turn? Get a majority - then Revoke. In a hung parliament - settle for a Referendum (with Remain on the ballot).
Difference is that China in the 80s wasn't reaching its potential, now it is growing, has a growing population, is united and has a military.
Europe is shrinking, has a shrinking population, still has no military and isn't united.
As a percentage of Global GDP the EU is only going to go down not up from here.
Read, man, read before posting! China before the Eighties was not reaching its potential. Now Europe is uniting, probably against us given we will be a rival on their doorstep, and demographic trends change - as then did in China whose population was actually shrinking as a result of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
We have been and always will be a part of Europe either (like now) as a rebellious, friendless, sulky province or a proud member of its family of nations sitting in the EU Council. Europe will outlast the U.K. - in our lifetimes probably.
The one game-changing event that could happen sooner than people expect is a rapprochement between Russia and the EU. Putinism is running out of steam, and Macron clearly sees an opportunity.
A long time ago, Tories would have been appalled at lying down with Farage.
It's his choice not to stand against them, not theirs.
Do you really believe that?
It's true. He is lying down with them. The issue is whether they should be appalled they are in such a place he chooses to do so.
It may be semantics, but you can see it as reflecting worse on the Tories - it's easy to countenance working with someone you don't want to if you must. But if they back you by choice it says more about where you are.
Either way its not a full throated endorsement and he might cost the tories yet, hence the excitement of some.
So nothing was facilitated? No conversation was had? No assurances given? Pull the other one.
I think you're rather missing the important point because your so keen on an irrelevant one. In an ideal world for con thered be no BXP party in existence, so the choice made is not giving them exactly what they want. What conversations there were if any are irrelevant because farages choice speaks for itself regardless.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
I never understand how that scottish uni fee system is legal.
Well you could have zero tuition fees but you couldn't use University education as a means of reducing youth unemployment - which is what the 50% in higher education target was designed to do.
I'm surprised how many recent graduates I've met haven't got jobs at the moment.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
Germany manages to do it.
Germany takes taxes from 90% of its country then denies free tuition to that 90%?
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Comments
Also December 31st would be a nightmare for various other reasons.
In a principle that dates back decades now there will be some devolution to Stormont for special arrangements for NI as was wanted by the voters of NI. If the voters of NI wish to end that they can do so. Up to our compatriots there in the ballot box not up to a so-called "superpower"
I had shown in different circumstances that I could hide my excitement. On the night of the 1966 general election, when the Liberals had been expected to make substantial gains –- winning forty or fifty seats -– I was in the Ladbroke Club in London with Rodney Leach.
About three quarters of an hour after the polls closed, when two or three results were known, I saw on the television that a prediction had flashed up, for a matter of seconds, that the Liberals would win only about fourteen seats. There was a representative of Ladbrokes, the bookmakers, in the club. I went over and asked if they were still taking bets on Liberal seats. He said that they were, in groups of five.
I asked him the odds for the group eleven to fifteen: he rang through to his office on one of those old-fashioned telephones and told me 16 to 1. It was clear Ladbrokes had not seen the TV prediction.
I had to decide quickly what the largest bet was that would not alert Ladbrokes. ‘I’ll have a couple of hundred on that, please.’ He telephoned through again as I stood there, trying to appear calm. ‘Yes, that’ll be fine, sir.’ I was just in time: within sixty seconds they had changed the odds to evens.
A few minutes later, as I sat with Rodney in a corner, gloating over my expected triumph, we were accosted by Boris Schapiro, who was running the club at the time. Boris could always sniff out even the smallest chance of making money, and something about my manner attracted his attention. ‘What have you been doing, Stuart? What’s all this about?’
For once in my life I did something quite shrewd. I explained the situation to him, and offered him £10 of the £200 bet. I did not want any difficulties when it came to getting paid, and having the man who ran the club on my side seemed a good idea. The Liberals took twelve seats: so I had won.
So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
Yes. I was predicting 30-33 seats for the Lib Dems, but have revised down to 23-26.
In any event, I'm cautiously confident that LD net gains from Con should be in single figures.
Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Step forward Lord Farage of Brussels.
How many votes this might influence, I have no idea, but it's not as though it hasn't been regularly voiced.
Ultimately Boris didn't court Nige, if this had come about because it done kind of deal and Tory candidates were stepping down in favour of Nige then, yes, that would be a disaster. As it stands, Nige just gave in. If anything it makes Bozza look better that he point blank refused any kind of alliance.
The 'Deal' merely moves the no Deal risk back by twelve months.
Anyway, as your own leader says, we are a quintessential European country. If Europe hits the tubes so do we. We are surrounded by it on all sides and share our only borders with it.
That move isn't available to the EU.
Some students, able to vote in either of two constituencies, will vote where their vote is more effective, e.g. having used this tool.
Whether it is an end to the boring arguments is neither here nor there. It only has to be perceived as such.
More interesting I think is this tweet, echoing a post made on the previous thread by @Jamei:
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1193872903567228928
That is the real reason why this announcement should be seen as helping Boris.
Best price 11/2 LibDems - I think I`d want more than that. Labour 1/8.
Europe is shrinking, has a shrinking population, still has no military and isn't united.
As a percentage of Global GDP the EU is only going to go down not up from here.
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"
What constituency?
I think we'll see:
- genuine indecision at the fringes (Con-BXP; Con-LD; Lab-BXP etc).
- probably quite a few shades of "shy X" (especially business-minded Tories who think Boris has landed too hard; and outwardly-supportive Labour types who nevertheless hate the idea of Corbyn in power)
- people being steered by the polls towards the end.. "too close to call - better do X"; "don't want a landslide Tory (or Lab!) win - better do Y"
- Changing perceptions of what minority party A will do to support/frustrate larger party B.
(All of which are inter-related and probably happen to an extent anyway.. but I think this election will see a lot of it)
I think today's BXP change is helpful to Johnson but not enormously without including northern Lab marginals. And I think the broad 'landing zone' for election day is Tories short by 10 (vaguely standstill) to Tory maj 50 because I think the polls will narrow.
Any majority would probably get the Johnson deal through. There might be problems later with a narrow one if there's a cliff-edge decision on the future relationship. Though a new speaker, a more cohesive PCP and less opportunity for backbench hijacks will lessen the opportunity to gum up the house.
It would be foolhardy of the Tory party to offer any direct and attributable benefit to BXP / N Farage for this,
Up to this point the line was clear, The Tory party will make no deal or pact. For their sakes I hope they have stuck to that, as if there was chicanery here it will backfire with a force of something like e=mc2 where m=the mass of Boris Johnson.
When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
BXP take Bootle......
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1193857890894962688?s=20
It may be semantics, but you can see it as reflecting worse on the Tories - it's easy to countenance working with someone you don't want to if you must. But if they back you by choice it says more about where you are.
Either way its not a full throated endorsement and he might cost the tories yet, hence the excitement of some.
We have been and always will be a part of Europe either (like now) as a rebellious, friendless, sulky province or a proud member of its family of nations sitting in the EU Council. Europe will outlast the U.K. - in our lifetimes probably.
https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey/status/1193868199361753088
Guys and gals, the BXP is dead as far as this election is concerned. It won't have any significant impact now.
Boris must surely propose some Deal date or other to the electorate? Or is he so unsure about his Deal that his main thing will be to promise that Brexit will happen BY 31 Jan at the latest?
Whole country can't follow that model.
The only way the Lib Dems could put the policy into practice would be by winning a majority a the election.
For that to happen would require a shift in votes of monstrous proportions indicating a change in the "will of the people".
To call running on the policy 'undemocratic' is simply nonsensical.
Get a majority - then Revoke.
In a hung parliament - settle for a Referendum (with Remain on the ballot).
Cultural conservatism......could be a term we hear more of.
Especially as both main parties are promising to spend like they dont have to pay the money back, economic issues aren't necessarily in the forefront.
Honestly I dont know what you are worked up about
I'm surprised how many recent graduates I've met haven't got jobs at the moment.
There is an account spelled the same except for the correct L.
My guess is it's not genuine.
https://twitter.com/Wayne_BayIey