Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
Germany manages to do it.
Germany also has few to no world class universities.
Have we heard the last of the failure to exit on 31/10/19 as a weapon in this election?
It wavered (depending on your political position) from occupying the ultimate destroy Boris position to a feeble and irrelevant construct of the opposition to Brexit.
Wow. They had a Scientologist standing for them? How did that not make more news?
Given the troubles even the major parties are having with candidates, probably inevitable BXP were going to have some right nutters in there, particularly in the no-chance seats.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
Germany manages to do it.
So do many other countries. It's called "free education".
Another peculiar feature of the British system is the way universities interview people to decide what "offer" to make them regarding what qualifications they will need if they are to be allowed in. Most countries don't do anything like that. (Which isn't to say that universities in some countries, such as Russia, don't sell places for large bribes.)
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"
What constituency?
Scunthorpe"
Thanks - interesting constituency to bet on. After deliberation - considering BXP are competing here and could do OK - I`ve taken the Evens on Labour with Betfair Sports. They would only take £30 though - which is pathetic.
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"
What constituency?
Scunthorpe
Scunny is another of those seats where there's a big labour town surrounded by lots of true blue countryside. Similar to Workington.
Scunny and Donny are both changing dramatically. Lots of housing development, lots of massive distribution centres springing up. Scunny to fall this time, Donny not too far behind.....
Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"
What constituency?
Scunthorpe
Scunny is another of those seats where there's a big labour town surrounded by lots of true blue countryside. Similar to Workington.
Scunny and Donny are both changing dramatically. Lots of housing development, lots of massive distribution centres springing up. Scunny to fall this time, Donny not too far behind.....
Certainly if they follow the pattern of Brigg and Goole, which has been quite startling change from Lab comfortable to Tory safe seat in a generation.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
Germany manages to do it.
Germany also has few to no world class universities.
And actually has a sizeable manufacturing sector. It's worth it for STEM courses.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
"...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."
The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.
You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.
You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
They are legally required to offer it to those students by EU law. I suspect it will change post Brexit.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
Not sure that is in the Tories interest. Tice seems like he could be a Carswell type figure who could end up undermining Farage. Especially if he becomes a Tory at a later point once he is a popular local MP.
But any deal beyond December 31st 2020 depends on paying money to the EU that we are not currently committed to giving to the EU.
That makes things far harder than many people expect.
Johnson campaigned for the leadership saying he would withhold the £39bn but dropped that line without a whimper. He might get away with quietly paying up again.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
"...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."
The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
Barnett was to eventually view the formula that he devised as unfair. In The Scotsman in January 2004 he wrote, "It was never meant to last this long, but it has gone on and on and it has become increasingly unfair to the regions of England. I didn't create this formula to give Scotland an advantage over the rest of the country when it comes to public funding."
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.
You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
They are legally required to offer it to those students by EU law. I suspect it will change post Brexit.
I honestly wouldn't put it past the SNP to contrive a justification for continuing free tuition for the EU27 but not the rest of the UK.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
Too late.
He was only a contender for the candidacy, not the PPC.
Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.
A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
Wow. I wonder if we'll see dozens of Tory MPs refusing to stand against Nigel. If so then Nigel's played a blinder and has essentially turned himself into the Tory party's co-leader.
I was just going to say that we need an @AndyJS to crunch the constituencies.
The above supports my view but has evidently been arrived at with more than (my) gut feel.
I get the impression that Farage has been under enormous internal party pressure to not let Corbyn in and have Brexit cancelled. This is a big newsworthy moment that lets him say he is doing that, taking pressure off his back, while maintaining significant leverage to negotiate further.
That said, I think it still helps the Tories a fair bit. Brexit party voters are about two thirds Tory and one third Labour. Let us make the (oversimplified but mainly accurate) view that the Tories are mainly hard right rural reactionaries and the Labour types are WWC Leave anti-Tories. I would imagine the first group mainly exist either in safe Tory seats or in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, which are currently mainly held by the Tories and were in danger of being lost to the Swinson surge. Farage has helped a lot there. The second group mainly exist innTory-Labour marginals, where the ones that matter are Labour held, and the BXP still standing slightly helps the Tories.
Of course this is just my loose analysis and I would like to see the PB Boffins crunch the numbers.
Yes there are a lot of assumptions. I start from the premise that as 12th Dec gets nearer then party loyalties will be the strongest factor.
So in my mind a Labour Leaver will nevertheless still have leftish sympathies such as to make voting BXP, by any estimation a party of the right, problematic.
I'm never quite sure. Here in Scouseland, I once asked a staunch Evertonian.
Forced choice - Weekend - Liverpool and Everton both LOSE, or Liverpool and Everton both WIN. Without a seconds hesitation, he'd rather they both lost, his hatred of Liverpool all consuming.
Some Labour voters are very tribal, such that they hate the Tories so much they lose sight of what parties are on the left-right scale. Certainly, my brother, staunch 'Labour' supporter is going to vote for 'Nigel!'. He'll never vote Tory. They eat babies. But he'll vote Brexit Party, because they'll get Brexit 'sorted'.
The fact the Brexit Party is led by an ex-Conservative, and has no policies except Brexit completely passes him by. He hates the Tories more than anything, and can't vote for them... but Nigel is okay.
So, in summary. You could well be right. But there are some tribal Labour voters who lose sight of why they vote Labour and instead just become the 'anti-Tory' voters.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.
The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
Too late.
He was only a contender for the candidacy, not the PPC.
OK. My 'Too Late' comment applied to the "No deals with Nige" rather than it being too late for a new Tory candidate being found.
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
Fuck that, we need to put up a candidate against them. No deals with Nige.
That's wrong. Just by the absence of a BXP candidate the Conservatives are going to lose significantly fewer of their existing seats now. So they will also need to win fewer of those 50 Labour held seats than they needed to before. A net gain of around 10 seats for Johnson should be enough.
And that's before considering the impact of this announcement in reducing the BXP national opinion poll share (to say <5% henceforth?). The BXP will have difficulty convincing Leave voters that they are a contender even in the seats they are standing in. </p>
The other aspect is that if the Tories have to invest less in defence then they can deploy more on offence. Both in terms of seats but also on policy positioning
Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.
A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
Is it possibly a racist definition?
Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.
Am feeling more confident than before that the Lib Dems aren't going to make major progress in this election. They've very few ultra-marginal targets available, and not that many more that seem likely to fall on outsized swings in deep Remain areas. Everything therefore depends now on Labour's ability to get out the vote. Theresa May nearly won in 2017 with about a 2.5% lead; if Labour can't win back enough support to close the gap to something very close to that, then the Tories are home and hosed. It's then just a matter of the size of the majority. Personally, I've not changed my mind about this election being a close one, but I think the probability of the Cons just making it over the finishing line has increased. Still an awfully long way to go though.
It's looking like Swinson's Revoke policy was a miscalculation. They were already ahead of Labour on trust when it comes to Brexit and didn't need to differentiate further.
Yes indeed, making the LibDems look like the Undemocratic party by opting for an out and out revoke policy and thereby denying the will of the majority at the referendum. Probably at least 20 seats lost at a stroke as a consequence, I now doubt they will win more than 25 seats or thereabouts. A very serious misjudgment by Swinson.
Wait till the final week. Swinson could well adjust that to a referendum.
When it came to the crunch last May her revoke policy did not appear to be an impediment to the LDs vote which all pollsters bar Ipsos-MORI understated.
Thar would be one hell of a u-turn in the space of a couple of months for the lib dems. Also the membership love revoke as a policy.
Hardly a U-turn. The Lib Dems are in favour of a confirmatory referendum and of revoking Article 50, depending on the Parliamentary arithmetic. If there is a majority of Lib Dem MPs, then the country can go for the quick and simple solution. If there is a hung Parliament, then there may be another referendum, though this will take time to carry out. If there is a Tory majority, then Johnson & Farage will jump over the edge of the cliff, and take the country with them.
I'm never quite sure. Here in Scouseland, I once asked a staunch Evertonian.
Forced choice - Weekend - Liverpool and Everton both LOSE, or Liverpool and Everton both WIN. Without a seconds hesitation, he'd rather they both lost, his hatred of Liverpool all consuming.
Some Labour voters are very tribal, such that they hate the Tories so much they lose sight of what parties are on the left-right scale. Certainly, my brother, staunch 'Labour' supporter is going to vote for 'Nigel!'. He'll never vote Tory. They eat babies. But he'll vote Brexit Party, because they'll get Brexit 'sorted'.
The fact the Brexit Party is led by an ex-Conservative, and has no policies except Brexit completely passes him by. He hates the Tories more than anything, and can't vote for them... but Nigel is okay.
So, in summary. You could well be right. But there are some tribal Labour voters who lose sight of why they vote Labour and instead just become the 'anti-Tory' voters.
I enjoy your anecdotes from Labour's sole true heartland Liverpool. They definitely confirm every mental picture of the hardcore Labour hardcore leave vote I've got in my head though.
Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.
The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
Snow was pretty widespread across much of Northern England for a lot of December 2010. Granted, it's not very likely to happen but it's not unheard of in the last ten or so years.
In reference to the Farage announcement, I am sceptical this will have much impact. The Tories will have already earmarked the target seats they are concentrating their efforts upon. I doubt this announcement will change the campaign operations activity and targets. We have seen this before when the LD in 2010 did not change their focus despite the then popularity of Clegg and the LD. Some commentators do not really have much insight into fptp elections or how national electoral machines work...
Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.
A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
Is it possibly a racist definition?
Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.
Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.
The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
If we are in a westerly (wet and windy) regime then higher ground in parts of NI would be a good bet for snow. If more northerly then Tomintoul etc but anywhere on higher ground north of the Wash/Mersey line, if Easterley then anywhere down the east coast, especially Yorks/Lincs, Norfolk and Kent as well as Aberdeenshire
Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.
Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.
A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
Is it possibly a racist definition?
Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.
PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"
That`s a good point - I think that they are.
UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.
I think Flint is likely to hold on.
I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.
Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
Like it or not he is one of the most significant/influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"
That`s a good point - I think that they are.
UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.
I think Flint is likely to hold on.
I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
"...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."
The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
Barnett was to eventually view the formula that he devised as unfair. In The Scotsman in January 2004 he wrote, "It was never meant to last this long, but it has gone on and on and it has become increasingly unfair to the regions of England. I didn't create this formula to give Scotland an advantage over the rest of the country when it comes to public funding."
Yes, now read the rest of the article. That happened because the proportions used weren't updated as Scotland's population failed to grow as fast as England's.
But Gordon Brown changed that. So the Barnett squeeze is now on. All we need is a bit of inflation.
I thought he was a toxic, vote deterrent? His haters should be demanding he is on every one!
Not much of a vote deterrent where his party isn't standing...
The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
I shouldn’t have thought that was the concern
Given his verbosity ?
No, they obviously see him as a threat.
That the other parties are always desperate to deny him airtime whilst simultaneously saying he is a complete failure as his side wins referendums and Euro elections is one of my favourite political nerd contortions.
PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"
That`s a good point - I think that they are.
UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.
I think Flint is likely to hold on.
I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
That'd be tricky as he's not standing there again. Campbell was hardly "voting against his principles" by voting for Brexit though. He's as anti-europe as Cash or Redwood.
Neither was Flint I'd say (Though it's an easier argument to make than Campbell) - a eurosceptic who voted remain and accepted the result.
Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.
Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
Can someone explain where the "Tory gammon" phraseology come from? Heard it a lot over past couple of weeks - but never heard it at all before then.
A subset of angry right-wingers are old men with blotchy red and white faces, which get redder when they shout nonsense at Question Time panellists. This gives them a somewhat bacony appearance.
Is it possibly a racist definition?
Either way the party led by an old man who most looks gammony and turns red when he is angry is the Labour Party. Corbyn gets very bacony when he is angry.
I had one of those Greggs vegan sausage rolls at lunch time. Not bad. I didn't choke it out like that Gammon Piers Morgan.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
A former British Army officer who was honoured by the Queen for his work with the White Helmets civil defence group in Syria has been found dead near his office in Istanbul.
Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.
Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
Every election rolls round and every time I am shocked at the people who seem to be willing to press the button.
I understand MAD theory is you should be seen to be willing to press the button, but seriously, no. Just because someone else would be willing to, doesn't mean you should. Someone else killing loads of civilians does not make it right to kill loads of civilians yourself.
Considering the time of year as well, that we are all concerned that someone wouldn't just go "well, if we're all going to die anyway, I might as well get in my share" is fucking horrendous.
My great nan lived through both wars, brought up her kids to survive the blitz when bombs fell on her house and in her neighbourhood. She died a few years ago at 102, and I had the benefit of a close relationship with her, seeing her pretty much weekly for almost 25 years. The horror of war made her a pacifist, she flinched at fireworks and would never buy her kids or grandkids toy guns. Alongside the young men whose lives were cut short by the stupidity of the ruling class, today I think of her.
People foaming angry at the thought that Corbyn wouldn't press the button in their blood lust can go do one.
In reference to the Farage announcement, I am sceptical this will have much impact. The Tories will have already earmarked the target seats they are concentrating their efforts upon. I doubt this announcement will change the campaign operations activity and targets. We have seen this before when the LD in 2010 did not change their focus despite the then popularity of Clegg and the LD. Some commentators do not really have much insight into fptp elections or how national electoral machines work...
I mainly agree. But I can see a targetted message in some remain seats that have previously shown their disdain for Farage and his parties - Vote Tory, Get Farage. It would have to be done carefully, but there are quite a lot of tribal Conservative Remainers in seats like Guildford and Wimbledon who can be susceptible to such a message.
Like it or not he is one of the most influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
Disagree. He's been influential by mastering the art of the not-always-accurate soundbite and winding people up on a single issue. Had he followed that through with getting elected in one of seven attempts or even producing a credible wider policy platform, I might have given him a few points in "being in the slightest bit arsed about how the country's run" column. As things stand, he has a big fat zero, which means it's a no from me.
Far better qualified to spaff off for an hour or two off-peak on LBC.
(EDIT to add: which isn't to say he *hasn't* been influential. But his appointment would not be made on the grounds of bringing the greatest minds and most effective people into governance)
Looks like that bet is for a flake of snow to fall on the Palace of Westminster on the 12th. I wonder which poor sod is being paid to stand out in the rain to adjudicate that? Poor odds for snow in London, but I think there's a fair chance of snow being observed at a polling station somewhere in the UK. Wondering where the highest elevation polling station in the UK will be now.
The annual average for number of days of snow falling (1981-2010) is less than 10 in central London and snow is more likely in January/February than mid-December.
The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
Snow was pretty widespread across much of Northern England for a lot of December 2010. Granted, it's not very likely to happen but it's not unheard of in the last ten or so years.
Sure. It's more likely than in July, but it's not 12/1 likely in London on election day.
Of course the Scots only fund free tuition fees by fleecing English taxpayers via the Barnett Formula while simultaneously denying English students free tuition.
Whole country can't follow that model.
The eternal English whine, why don't you give our kids free education just 'cos we choose to charge an arm and a leg for it? Another one for the hypocrisy box.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
I have no qualms with you not offering our kids free education, as soon as you decide to stop taking our taxes.
You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
'When oh when will the English stop whining and discover the balls to do something about the *oppressive* Barnett formula that they themselves thought up?'
'Sorry pal, they've still to finish their MASSIVE whine about the *oppressive* EU. Could be years yet.'
Like it or not he is one of the most influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
He is not the most influencial politician in the last 50 years. Thatcher and Blair have had much more influence on politics and peoples lives. Farage has never won a Westminster seat or been a member of the executive. Pressure groups and single issue parties have some influence but Thatcher for instance changed the whole economy for good or ill. Gin, you have become too focused on Brexit and it has warped your judgement!
PaulM said: "Are Brexit Party standing against Caroline Flint ?"
That`s a good point - I think that they are.
UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.
I think Flint is likely to hold on.
I will laugh if she loses as she went against her principles in voting for the BJ deal because she was worried about TBP or the Tories defeating her! You either think Brexit is a good thing for the country or a bad thing...
Ronnie Campbell may pay for his support by losing Blyth Valley too
That'd be tricky as he's not standing there again. Campbell was hardly "voting against his principles" by voting for Brexit though. He's as anti-europe as Cash or Redwood.
Interesting. I was in the gym as the announcement came across. Weekdays in the gym is hoards of the retired.......and their response was unexpected. The nailed on Conservative supporters were appalled and questioning whether they could vote for a party backed by Farage. I am sure this will help the Conservatives in straight Labour/Conservative brexit supporting seats. Here in Guildford it seems to be having the opposite effect, which could be typical of southern remain seats where the Conservatives (other than their officers) despise brexit.
Lol did you canvass them on their voting intention while they were on the cross trainer before or after the whole gym stopped to watch the big announcement and began to reveal their innermost thoughts on its implications?
I assume you do not get in the gym. The retired tend to come in groups. The gym has 6 tv screens. As anyone who does go in the gym would know, you have rests (recovery periods) in between exercises and that is when chat starts. I have heard all sorts of interesting (non-political) things by accident whilst on the cross trainer (yes, I do use that because I have a medial problem currently keeping me off the treadmill). And that is what happened today. I am pushing on the x trainer and the old boys are chatting next to the trainer. I have no idea what the real gym bunnies think - but they are younger and would be less likely to be Conservative anyway.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
I'm looking forward to the surprises. My only skin in the game is seeing Corbyn and Labour utterly destroyed.
Because one party states are amazing
The void will be filled by something that hasn't betrayed the working class and gorged itself on racism and terrorist sympathy
I enjoy your anecdotes from Labour's sole true heartland Liverpool. They definitely confirm every mental picture of the hardcore Labour hardcore leave vote I've got in my head though.
WE HATE THE TORIES! THEY EAT BABIES! THEY MURDER SCOUSERS!
Comments
It wavered (depending on your political position) from occupying the ultimate destroy Boris position to a feeble and irrelevant construct of the opposition to Brexit.
A week is a long time in politics.
Ex-PPC Wayne Bayley must feel like an absolute arse.
Another peculiar feature of the British system is the way universities interview people to decide what "offer" to make them regarding what qualifications they will need if they are to be allowed in. Most countries don't do anything like that. (Which isn't to say that universities in some countries, such as Russia, don't sell places for large bribes.)
4,000 jobs saved plus 20,000 in the local community and just before Xmas. Great news"
What constituency?
Scunthorpe"
Thanks - interesting constituency to bet on. After deliberation - considering BXP are competing here and could do OK - I`ve taken the Evens on Labour with Betfair Sports. They would only take £30 though - which is pathetic.
Farage is in the process of capitulation. Johnson will gain...potentially significantly .
https://twitter.com/syalrajeev/status/1193886169366482944
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1193901639373074433
"Hartlepool news: the Conservatives haven’t yet announced their candidate to fight Richard Tice of the Brexit party. But the lead contender, Ralph Ward-Jackson, has just withdrawn his name following Nigel Farage’s announcement, saying he doesn’t want to split the Leave vote."
Brexit Party to get at least 1 seat?
But both accounts have neglible amount of Tweets and neglible amount of of followers/following.
The original point is that many countries, big and small, don't charge fees, so to describe it as a fantasy is in fact 100% proof pish.
"...the expectation was that as inflation led to repeated application of the formula, average expenditure per head on devolved services in Scotland would over the years fall nearer and nearer to the English figure (the so-called "Barnett squeeze")."
The misunderstanding of the Barnett formula really gets my goat.
That makes things far harder than many people expect.
You seem oddly content to continue with the Barnett Formula and to take our taxes though. And offer French, German, Dutch etc students free education too just not the English whose taxes you take.
Forced choice - Weekend - Liverpool and Everton both LOSE, or Liverpool and Everton both WIN.
Without a seconds hesitation, he'd rather they both lost, his hatred of Liverpool all consuming.
Some Labour voters are very tribal, such that they hate the Tories so much they lose sight of what parties are on the left-right scale. Certainly, my brother, staunch 'Labour' supporter is going to vote for 'Nigel!'. He'll never vote Tory. They eat babies. But he'll vote Brexit Party, because they'll get Brexit 'sorted'.
The fact the Brexit Party is led by an ex-Conservative, and has no policies except Brexit completely passes him by. He hates the Tories more than anything, and can't vote for them... but Nigel is okay.
So, in summary. You could well be right. But there are some tribal Labour voters who lose sight of why they vote Labour and instead just become the 'anti-Tory' voters.
The best bet on the mainland is somewhere like Tomintoul in the Cairngorms, otherwise Shetland.
The concern is more that he takes up airtime, perhaps ?
Did she just attempt to the throw the election away deliberately this morning?
They definitely confirm every mental picture of the hardcore Labour hardcore leave vote I've got in my head though.
That`s a good point - I think that they are.
UKIP got 23.5% of the vote in 2015 in Don Valley.
I think Flint is likely to hold on.
I appreciate that you may not want a different message to the usual, but tough. Guildford (and seats like Richmond/Winchester/Wimbledon and many others in the south) is not the same as Coventry or Mansfield or any of the other Farage fiefdoms. You only have to look at the UKIP electoral history in Surrey to understand. The only Surrey CC seat they ever won happened when the idiot Conservatives forgot to get their nomination in for Shalford - one of their safest seats.
You are in for some very nasty surprises in Surrey and London. but it will not stop a Conservative majority.
Here's one when he's not angry
Like it or not he is one of the most significant/influential politicians of the last 50 years - there should be a recognition of the contribution he and UKIP/BXP have made to this country's future (even if you think that contribution is negative)
But Gordon Brown changed that. So the Barnett squeeze is now on. All we need is a bit of inflation.
That the other parties are always desperate to deny him airtime whilst simultaneously saying he is a complete failure as his side wins referendums and Euro elections is one of my favourite political nerd contortions.
Neither was Flint I'd say (Though it's an easier argument to make than Campbell) - a eurosceptic who voted remain and accepted the result.
Does this make me a snowflake perhaps instead?
I understand MAD theory is you should be seen to be willing to press the button, but seriously, no. Just because someone else would be willing to, doesn't mean you should. Someone else killing loads of civilians does not make it right to kill loads of civilians yourself.
Considering the time of year as well, that we are all concerned that someone wouldn't just go "well, if we're all going to die anyway, I might as well get in my share" is fucking horrendous.
My great nan lived through both wars, brought up her kids to survive the blitz when bombs fell on her house and in her neighbourhood. She died a few years ago at 102, and I had the benefit of a close relationship with her, seeing her pretty much weekly for almost 25 years. The horror of war made her a pacifist, she flinched at fireworks and would never buy her kids or grandkids toy guns. Alongside the young men whose lives were cut short by the stupidity of the ruling class, today I think of her.
People foaming angry at the thought that Corbyn wouldn't press the button in their blood lust can go do one.
Far better qualified to spaff off for an hour or two off-peak on LBC.
(EDIT to add: which isn't to say he *hasn't* been influential. But his appointment would not be made on the grounds of bringing the greatest minds and most effective people into governance)
'Sorry pal, they've still to finish their MASSIVE whine about the *oppressive* EU. Could be years yet.'
Not Bozo.
I suppose someone who says "F Business" wouldn't be welcome.
He has revoked his original pledge to stand down.