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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?
There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting.
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https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1192939050417737733?s=20
https://twitter.com/SamLowry60/status/1192939998888288262?s=20
"Push them into the sea" was a rallying call from Arab autocracies who knew they had us surrounded and is still dreamt of among the more vicious anti-Semites today. I have heard it brought up on multiple occasions in arguments about Israel online. I have also heard how the cesspool of far left online activism has argued how the "Blairites" are just the "Zionist lobby" out to get Corbyn, echoing long held narratives about sinister Jewish conspiracies. So don't pretend how "push the Blairites into sea" is so fucking innocent.
If this woman wanted to be credible she could acknowledge how wrong the death celebration talk was, but she doesn't. She actually gets upset that there was criticism over it. As for "trying to void talk", the level of projection is unreal. The whole "what about Tory Islamophobia" narrative only emerged to avoid answering questions on the institutional anti-Semitism in Labour.
I have not yet decided who I will vote for. Most likely I will go Lib Dem or abstain. Though I become seriously tempted to vote Conservative every time the ugliness of far left scum like you comes pouring out. Corbynism is the ugly underbelly of the left, which has infiltrated and rotted from within the Labour movement with a sick nastiness that will destroy the party. I look forward to the day the Liberal Democrats overtake you and banish your types to the fringes where you belong.
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britains-debt-outlook-cut-to-negative-over-political-chaos-w2xrwfmps
I shared the YouGov polling earlier with Labour vote among 18-24. The 'but the Muslims' from you scummy far right pieces of crap doesn't wash with the younger generation. The young will see you off you bigoted gammon types.
I realise the Muslim woman is annoying and think she can complain about the racism but you know better right, she just shut up and be grateful we let her type live in this country, how dare she criticise the almighty Blair and world hero Netanyahu, now your lane BAME girl.
You are scum mate, absolute scum I'm glad my generations and the ones below are rejecting the hatred and racism you support.
https://twitter.com/SallyGimson/status/1192864075056844802?s=20
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/sally-gimsons-deselection-and-the-battle-for-labours-soul/
https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191350655073554432
https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1191397800732442624
https://twitter.com/a_leesha1/status/1180766152039047169
I have been centre-left my whole life. I have actively campaigned against Netanyahu. But because I am Jewish and protest anti-Semitism, I am far right.
You are clearly as anti-Semitic as the rest of your far left ilk. The absolute dregs of our political system.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1192174076082761728?s=20
Ahh yes saying Labour isn't anti semitic is anti semitic, genius, almost on the level of if she floats she's a witch, did you need several skinhead mates to help you come up with that formulation or did you think it up all by yourself in between cursing various BAME women for wrong think?
I feel I have done enough to show exactly what sort of person you are. No need for me to push this any further so this will be my last reply.
I wonder if we will see differential turnouts this time with moderately higher ones in highly marginal seats where opinion is incredibly polarised and lower in "safe" seats where most people not only vote the same way as most of their neighbours but also tend to share their opinions on Brexit, the NHS, law and order etc.
Living as I do on the most northerly mainland constituency in the UK I can tell you that daylight on polling day is unlikely to be much before 9am and it will be dusk by 3pm. If the weather is dreich meaning very low cloud and heavy rain, it will be more like nearer 10am and getting dark soon after 2pm.
Normally I would think these factors will suit the Tory Party. We know the older the voter, the more committed they tend to be at exercising their democratic franchise. This time I think it will just be very mixed and it will be interesting to learn what % of the potential turnout in each marginal constituency comprise the postal votes.
Jo Cox.
We must Brexit.
We must stop Jeremy Corbyn from getting to 10 Downing Street.
These two twin drivers will get them to the polling stations, whatever the conditions.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/11/lord-ashcroft-my-focus-groups-in-three-heavily-remain-voting-liberal-democrat-targets.html
Less good to see the thinly veiled racism of one poster on this thread. But it’s definitely not an institutional problem.
1) Boris steamrollers everything. The polls don't move much, the result is kind of a forgone conclusion, neither side will try very hard, not much turnout
2) 2017 redux: Corbyn closes in, it looks like a race, the media talk up how close it is, pretty strong turnout
3) Jogasm: LibDem surge, Lab kind of depressed, Con don't feel under much threat, LibDems turn out out of hope but nobody else really does since they don't inspire fear, aggregate turnout still pretty low even though it's high in parts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45765496
This of course has two effects, the first being that, since the evidence is that people with postal votes vote when they get them, anything said or done in the last couple of weeks of the campaign will be irrelevant. Postal votes have been cast.
Secondly, while I agree with Mr Herdman that the time of year, especially if it's coupled with bad weather may put some people off, they may well be the very people who have postal votes.
February 74 of course produced a high turnout; almost 79%.
I think one possibility to which we should give serious consideration is that both campaigns are being run by incompetent imbeciles.
Those whom the gods wish to destroy?
More pertinently perhaps, they only ever speak to like minded people. At this moment, like minded people will be assuring them that these massive cockups don't matter as it isn't shifting their votes.
"Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%... it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it," says Lord Cooper.
"In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120."
In my experience, Gujerati Hindus are quite willing to vote Tory, but even so most vote Labour.
One issue that is under explored is how minorities feel about each other. Are Hindus less likely to vote for a Muslim than an ethnic Brit, and vice versa? If you want to see how fervent these issues can be, ask either about Kashmir.
Politics has never been so depressing. Boris should lose big based on his performance in office, but he looks likely to win, those around him will celebrate and exploit their mandate, confusing electoral success with actual ability. We’re in for a rough ride.
In reply to your second question, not yet. I am not going to make any decisions until I see a full candidate list.
Don’t blame the advertising, blame the product?
So provided the messages are relevant and all the parties keep chasing I dont think it will be a poor turnou, esp as nowadays social media will keep nudging the target voters (something we did not have in 1974 etc). I have been tempted by betting on a 70% plus turnout so am putting my money where my mouth is...
Arguably this is not new. Remember the credit flying around in 2015 to Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina. Labour also has an effective social media operation but is more dependent on volunteers.
Digital campaigns. especially so-called narrowcasting, have two advantages: first, other parties cannot respond if they don't know what you have said and who you have said it to; second, it can reach geographically disparate demographics. Boots on the ground, though, can be more effective for discrete geographies like, erm, constituencies.
Lol: hot off the press:
UK weather: Boris Johnson says flooding does not amount to a 'national emergency'
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-public-urged-to-stay-away-from-swollen-rivers-amid-extensive-flooding-11857056
Single football bet failed yesterday, but there'll be more random nonsense later today.
Mr. JohnL, might not impress people much.
My own constituency, for example, has 82,000 voters and 50-odd polling stations. The wrong kind of sudden overnight snowfall on Dec11/12 would make about 20 of these inaccessible (there simply aren't enough snowploughs in the county to clear everywhere in under 72 hours, and those 20 are at the bottom of the priority list) - but those 20 serve in total only about 1% of the electorate. However, it's only 10 years since we had precisely that wrong kind of snowfall in mid-December.
But almost all the constituency's hilly and the pop's relatively elderly, so a certain kind of very cold weather and light rain at the wrong times could make a huge proportion of pavements unsafe for much of the day, and inhibit the safe transport of ballot boxes to the count: under such circs, turnout would be affected more by how successfully the parties and the returning officer implement emergency plans than the weather itself.
If the US rule of thumb is that turnout falls 1% for every inch of rain, you'd argue that in my constituency (ave total rainfall in the 31 days of December: 2.6 inches) rain can't possibly matter. But just half an inch of it falling, if temps are below freezing, on the night of Dec 11 could devastate the election here.
Correlations with countries like the US or Sweden that ate far better prepared for extreme weather - but have fewer polling stations per head - are of limited value.
Ignore.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ayodhya-verdict-live-updates-supreme-court-verdict-on-ram-mandir-babri-masjid-dispute/liveblog/71978224.cms
It is just that social media has made it much more difficult to control the narrative .
The main impression I have is that the Tories are being ruthless in shutting down problems with candidates; Ross England kicked out, Alun Cairns told to resign as Minister, Nick Conrad told to sod off. Cairns' letter sounded as though it had been dictated by Malcolm Tucker. The Charlie Elphicke problem has been skilfully finessed.
The Labour Party -- as befits the party that has somehow let the antisemitism issue engulf it for nearly 2 years -- has not been so successful with problems with candidates.
My take is that Corbyn is not antisemitic. But, he has completely failed to shut this issue down over a very long period of times & that is major incompetence.
It will hit some regions far more than others with postal votes..are there any contingency plans?
I hope Boris has considered how valid his mandate will be if he wins a majority of 50 on a voteshare of 35% on a turnout of 59%.
UK: -15%
Scotland: -15%
Wales: -20%
NE: -23%
NW: -25%
Yorks: -20%
EMids: -19%
WMids: -20%
E Eng: -16%
London: -16%
SE: -13%
SW: -12%
Say what you like mate, it really doesn't matter. Keep on selecting anti-semite after anti-semite as candidates whilst insisting its all a smear, it really doesn't matter.
I can't call this election's result. But it seems clear that Labour are going to get an absolute beating from the electorate. I despise so much of what the uncaring Tory party have done. But that is nothing compared to the actual considered rational racism exhibited by Corbyn's Labour Party. That it's coming from a Labour Party, a Labour Party which supposedly is a bastion against racism is even more tragic.
So, please, Jezziah. Keep digging. The deeper you dig, the deeper the Labour Party gets buried.
When someone stands for election then suddenly everything they've ever posted on social media becomes on the record political interviews and held to a much higher standard of acceptable discourse than pub banter. It's a mess.
Meanwhile I am trying to understand Bassetlaw. The new candidate (article, LabourList) is Keir Morrison, who is one of the two extant Lab Councillors in Ashfield, and the former cabinet member for housing (imo ideological rather than good - took a very good Housing Setup back into political control for no good reason.) Morrison embarrassed Ed Miliband when he wore the famous teeshirt.
Morrison can't stand in Ashfield because they exclude men.
When the previous candidate Sally Gimson was selected (official in Starmer's constituency party iirc) there was umpteen kerfuffle about locals being excluded from the longlist including the Leader of Bassetlaw Council.
Gimson was defenestrated by the NEC with dark mutterings about "allegations around protected characteristics" in Starmer's Holborn & St Pancras Party, none of which seem to have been published, and about which St Pancras Party has said it has not been consulted.
Gimson threatened to sue, and published a Letter Before Action, but has now backed down again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBI0pjC37KE
Majority 5k. Tories currently favourite. Hmmm.
The other matter which could really affect turnout would be a MAJOR snowstorm with substantial drifting - we had one on 9 Dec 2009 as I remember.
I think it will actually be a high rather than low turnout election.
It could be interesting to see, though, as it might act as a useful guideline for whether people are likelier to vote in opposition to something rather than for something.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50332415
Sion Jones is the only Labour Councillor on Gwynedd Council.
(He is also the thickest Councillor on Gwynedd Council, but that is by the way).