politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov boost for Swinson in the TV debates row
Comments
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Shame about the jobs it loses thoughMysticrose said:ydoethur said:
You’re quite right.Mysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
But nobody else has any ideas either.
Other than Corbyn whose ideas veer from the mad to the disastrous via the merely amusing.
I loved the ban on private planes idea. That will gain lots of support, even if you throw your hands in the air in horror. Most amusing.
It's by far the most interesting election of my life thanks almost entirely to Labour. I mean ... wow ... it's seriously radical stuff. Makes Michael Foot look like a Blairite
Oh and if this is about the environment what % of emissions come from private jets?
Its a stupid, stupid idea and more about envy than anything else.0 -
Well they are not new hospitals just hospitals that should have been upgraded years ago. The police will only replace those that were culled. If you believe them on fracking then you would back Johnson pensions are just a bribe, we haven’t got the room in prisons for longer sentences and god knows what a points based immigration system is but I’m sure it will be fine.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifestoMysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
40% of the public in yesterday's poll said brexit is their main concern, 60% in Wales0 -
For what it's worth, at this stage of the 2017 GE (38 days out) the rolling average Tory lead over Labour was 15.3%.
It's currently 11% for the average of the last 6 polls published in Wikipedia for this GE.0 -
I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow1 -
Congrats to Lindsay... And to Parliament for making their first sensible decision for months.0
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Johnson is a rubbish speaker.
Waffle waffle waffle0 -
Mainly shifted by the dementia tax disaster which will not be repeated, Boris is running a much more populist campaign.Benpointer said:For what it's worth, at this stage of the 2017 GE (38 days out) the rolling average Tory lead over Labour was 15.3%.
It's currently 11% for the average of the last 6 polls published in Wikipedia for this GE.
Plus the Tories were on 44 to 50% at this stage in 2017, much of which went back to Labour, the 34 to 42% the Tories are on now is much more realistic and matches the Tories voteshare from 2010 to 2017 so much harder for Labour to shift0 -
A Speaker must show kindliness, Mr Johnson, whatever could you mean?0
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Basically, it’s spaff some cash around, and the absence of any kind of fresh thinking is palpable.nichomar said:
Well they are not new hospitals just hospitals that should have been upgraded years ago. The police will only replace those that were culled. If you believe them on fracking then you would back Johnson pensions are just a bribe, we haven’t got the room in prisons for longer sentences and god knows what a points based immigration system is but I’m sure it will be fine.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifestoMysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
40% of the public in yesterday's poll said brexit is their main concern, 60% in Wales0 -
He even babbled on about Newtonian time-frames when everyone knows that they were superceded 100 years ago by Einstein.Mysticrose said:Johnson is a rubbish speaker.
Waffle waffle waffle
Typical Boris... well out of date
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I don't remember the exact numbers, but I know we're a long way from it. Would require Lib Dems considerably ahead of Labour.MarqueeMark said:
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1190576786083418114?s=20Mysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.0 -
So a reversal of the last 9 years. Thank heaven for the magic money tree!Big_G_NorthWales said:
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifestoMysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.0 -
Fair enough on its brexity nature and your research.HYUFD said:
They are still strong Leave won by the Brexit Party in the European Parliament electionscamel said:
Workington is very rural. Darlington and Grimsby certainly are not.HYUFD said:
Bishop Auckland, Grimsby, Vale of Clwyd, Penistone and Stockbridge, Gower, Wrexham, Weaver Vale, Rother Valley, Darlington, Ashfield etc seats the Tories could gain thanks to Labour voters going Brexit PartyIanB2 said:
Where else is “like Workington”?HYUFD said:
Farage said today Cameron only got a majority in 2015 due to UKIP taking Labour votes, in areas like Workington that is still the caseLuckyguy1983 said:
Me too. If it isn't clear yet that a vote for TBP makes Brexit less likely in most cases, it will certainly be made abundantly so over the coming weeks.DavidL said:
The (stop) Brexit Party doing some serious damage there. Will that happen in reality? I have my doubts.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191415158331056128?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191412011311288320?s=20
I wonder if HYUFD's confidence is just a touch dented today?
Eerily reminiscent of 2017. I could be wrong and everyone decides Johnson is Dionysus reborn whilst Corbyn is Daemon.
Or, as I think most likely, people are starting to focus on what really matters in their lives. Clue: the answers don't begin with B and end in T.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865?s=20
Have you ever been there?
But the constituency is not typical of northern working class towns. Most of it is "Escape to the Country" territory. (Noone has ever escaped to Grimsby),
As i noted earlier, it would draw less attention if it were more accurately named "North Lake District and Solway".0 -
Good - poll leads can lead to complacencyBenpointer said:For what it's worth, at this stage of the 2017 GE (38 days out) the rolling average Tory lead over Labour was 15.3%.
It's currently 11% for the average of the last 6 polls published in Wikipedia for this GE.0 -
I've actually won some money by backing Hoyle. I think this is the first time this year.
Let us hope this bodes well for the forthcoming election.4 -
Can't see TBP getting 51% even if they do.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow1 -
LDs 20 to 25%, Labour 20 to 25%MarqueeMark said:
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1190576786083418114?s=20Mysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.0 -
Indeed, the irony is staggering!Foxy said:
So a reversal of the last 9 years. Thank heaven for the magic money tree!Big_G_NorthWales said:
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifestoMysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.0 -
That's a lot of MPs already off campaigning......AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Bryant 213
Hoyle 3250 -
Let’s get a decent human being in number 10, so that the healing can really begin.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow1 -
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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Good job they elected Hoyle instead then...Mysticrose said:Johnson is a rubbish speaker.
Waffle waffle waffle0 -
Parliament is a well Hoyle'd machine...0
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Jonathan said:
Let’s get a decent human being in number 10, so that the healing can really begin.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow
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I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
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Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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I find Nigel Dodds and J Swinson's speeches a touch ungracious.0
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Those collecting their winnings can be thankful to those on the other side of the bet: "Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay"Sunil_Prasannan said:Parliament is a well Hoyle'd machine...
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FiveThirtyEight has really good potential matchup polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/HYUFD said:
Worth noting that Siena College, who did this poll, is an unknown, and 538 doesn't give them a rating yet. They may be great. But their numbers are very different to Fox News (an A rated pollster), who has for Wisonsin leads of 5, 4, and 9 for Sanders, Warren and Biden in order.0 -
That is upto the electorateJonathan said:
Let’s get a decent human being in number 10, so that the healing can really begin.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow0 -
Off "campaigning" or filling their boots at tax payers expense?MarqueeMark said:
That's a lot of MPs already off campaigning......AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Bryant 213
Hoyle 325 0 -
Well of the two current front runners a description of decent does not stand scrutiny what is decent about either Johnson or corbyn?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is upto the electorateJonathan said:
Let’s get a decent human being in number 10, so that the healing can really begin.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow0 -
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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The DUP "ungracious" Shirley not!!!!!Beibheirli_C said:I find Nigel Dodds and J Swinson's speeches a touch ungracious.
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Yes, she was in an abusive relationship. I remember him speaking about it after the inquest.Big_G_NorthWales said:I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
I have a huge amount of time for him, he always seems to be a very decent man. I know from friends in his constituency how well respected his is, regardless of political affiliation.2 -
Or still around, making the most of their last shots of subsidised booze?GIN1138 said:
Off "campaigning" or filling their boots at tax payers expense?MarqueeMark said:
That's a lot of MPs already off campaigning......AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Bryant 213
Hoyle 3251 -
Anyway, with the excitement over for the evening, I shall put the kettle on and have a relax
Later peeps!0 -
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even 'technically' true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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Comrade...they haven't got much of a choice.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is upto the electorateJonathan said:
Let’s get a decent human being in number 10, so that the healing can really begin.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really hope TBP are not crass enough to put someone up against Lindsay Hoyle
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow
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I think he'll be excellent. He's just the breath of fresh air Parliament needs after Bercow.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, she was in an abusive relationship. I remember him speaking about it after the inquest.Big_G_NorthWales said:I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
I have a huge amount of time for him, he always seems to be a very decent man. I know from friends in his constituency how well respected his is, regardless of political affiliation.2 -
Even more technically true, touche.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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Are the Sinn Fein MPs eligible to vote as they haven't taken the oath?MarqueeMark said:
But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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Surprised you didn't end that post with "...Hoyle get my coat."williamglenn said:
Those collecting their winnings can be thankful to those on the other side of the bet: "Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay, Hoyle lay"Sunil_Prasannan said:Parliament is a well Hoyle'd machine...
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
Jeez...what a profoundly shocking event....
I've worked in m mental health, and I really do think that 99% of young people who hang themselves at home really do not mean to do it...i's a very volatile act to do in a moment of madness, and it is very easy to do....0 -
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?RobD said:
Even more technically true, touche.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.0 -
Does anyone have the 2017 UKIP /LD/ Other Nos ?OblitusSumMe said:
I don't remember the exact numbers, but I know we're a long way from it. Would require Lib Dems considerably ahead of Labour.MarqueeMark said:
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1190576786083418114?s=20Mysticrose said:The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.0 -
Well done Parliament for finally making a decent decision but even then they still managed to drag it out for as long as they possibly could until they literally couldn't drag it out any further.1
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I was wondering that. Complicated because if they had turned up, there would have been no Speaker to administer the Oath. Maybe the Father of the House would have to rule on their eligibility?RobD said:
Are the Sinn Fein MPs eligible to vote as they haven't taken the oath?MarqueeMark said:
But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
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Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me0 -
Is there law requiring a by-election to be held, or can a seat remain vacant for the duration of a Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?RobD said:
Even more technically true, touche.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.0 -
It’s a fake accountPeter_the_Punter said:
Well, it might be a bit huffy but it is at least correct. There is a scenario - unlikely but by no means impossible - by which she becomes PM, even if only temporarily. There is no plausible scenario in which Sturgeon becomes PM.Alistair said:
So the interview was wrong, and presumably just being provocative.0 -
So, when is Hoyle due to receive HM's approbation? 0
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Surely the answer to that is simple?MarqueeMark said:
I was wondering that. Complicated because if they had turned up, there would have been no Speaker to administer the Oath. Maybe the Father of the House would have to rule on their eligibility?RobD said:
Are the Sinn Fein MPs eligible to vote as they haven't taken the oath?MarqueeMark said:
But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
There have been Speakers chosen directly after an election before when newly elected MPs wouldn't have taken the Oath yet, what happens then?0 -
It remains vacant until Parliament moves to hold a by-election. I don’t think there’s a law prescribing when that has to happen, although doubtless the SC would invent one if necessary.RobD said:
Is there law requiring a by-election to be held, or can a seat remain vacant for the duration of a Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?RobD said:
Even more technically true, touche.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.0 -
Will words fail Boris in condemning it. Needs a strong response.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me0 -
BBC Parliament said 21:30.RobD said:So, when is Hoyle due to receive HM's approbation?
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All leaders need to condemn himJonathan said:
Will words fail Boris in condemning it. Needs a strong response.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me
He is a disaster for the US and all of us0 -
IanB2 said:
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?malcolmg said:
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.PeterMannion said:
Fact or OPINION?malcolmg said:
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.IanB2 said:
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).Peter_the_Punter said:
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.Anabobazina said:The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
You thickie
I have an above ground palace as befits my magnificenceIanB2 said:
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?malcolmg said:
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.PeterMannion said:
Fact or OPINION?malcolmg said:
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.IanB2 said:
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).Peter_the_Punter said:
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.Anabobazina said:The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
You thickie0 -
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.0
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That's the day after the 2020 presidential election.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me0 -
Boris will weigh things up and wonder which response will better suit him.....he'll go in for the Paris Accord knowing that the idiots who think global warming is a lefty plot will hardly vote for Corbyn....Jonathan said:
Will words fail Boris in condemning it. Needs a strong response.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me
0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
BBC Parliament said 21:30.RobD said:So, when is Hoyle due to receive HM's approbation?
I'm looking forward to a good doffing.marke09 said:
9.35 tonightRobD said:So, when is Hoyle due to receive HM's approbation?
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The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real1
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If it just me, or Houston do we have another problem with the thread on the main site not appearing?0
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I thought he had announced this years ago?Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me0 -
White supremacist Richard Spencer makes racist slurs on tape leaked by rival
Ex-Breitbart writer, Milo Yiannopoulos, released expletive-laden audio recording amid deepening in-fighting on the far right
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/04/white-supremacist-richard-spencer-racist-slurs-tape-milo-yiannopoulos0 -
It was obviously meant to say that there are two vacancies, in fairness.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even 'technically' true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
0 -
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The Chief Whip usually issues the writ within 3 months but occasionally they have delayed longer - over 6 months a couple of times.ydoethur said:
It remains vacant until Parliament moves to hold a by-election. I don’t think there’s a law prescribing when that has to happen, although doubtless the SC would invent one if necessary.RobD said:
Is there law requiring a by-election to be held, or can a seat remain vacant for the duration of a Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?RobD said:
Even more technically true, touche.Mysticrose said:
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.RobD said:
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.Mysticrose said:
Uh?MarqueeMark said:
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)AndyJS said:Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.
No writ, no by election. And obviously with dissolution of Parliament and a General Election there ain't no by elections.0 -
Tory to hold Finchley and Golders Green looks value at 5/4.
Luciana Berger is new, well known and Jewish, but a 20 point swing is a big ask. And I cannot see Labour gaining the seat for obvious reasons.
Anyway I've piled in.0 -
Interesting discussion on this:Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking news
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR1snnEx6oI0 -
The Tories lead has increased with ICM on their last poll and Labour's lead has fallen in Wales from 16% in 2017 to just 1% nowRoger said:Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
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The Wales poll showsRoger said:Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Labour 18 (-10)
Conservatives 17 (+9)
Plaid 4
Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades0 -
Oh absolutely. Labour will likely be averaging 30% by the weekend, and will continue to head Northwards as the robot voters come home.Roger said:Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
I wouldn't anticipate their getting all the way back up to 40% by polling day, but the vote share ought to be substantially better than would've been suggested both by pre-election polling, and Corbyn's abysmal personal ratings.0 -
So sorry to hear thatnichomar said:The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real
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And very silent.nichomar said:The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real
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For the first time since 1931, to be exact. Then the score was Tory 11, Lib 8, Lab 16.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Wales poll showsRoger said:Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Labour 18 (-10)
Conservatives 17 (+9)
Plaid 4
Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades0 -
And if so Jo Swinson has failedBlack_Rook said:
Oh absolutely. Labour will likely be averaging 30% by the weekend, and will continue to head Northwards as the robot voters come home.Roger said:Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
I wouldn't anticipate their getting all the way back up to 40% by polling day, but the vote share ought to be substantially better than would've been suggested both by pre-election polling, and Corbyn's abysmal personal ratings.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Let's run a book on which is malc's gaff:malcolmg said:IanB2 said:
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?malcolmg said:
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.PeterMannion said:
Fact or OPINION?malcolmg said:
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.IanB2 said:
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).Peter_the_Punter said:
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.Anabobazina said:The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
You thickie
I have an above ground palace as befits my magnificenceIanB2 said:
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?malcolmg said:
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.PeterMannion said:
Fact or OPINION?malcolmg said:
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.IanB2 said:
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).Peter_the_Punter said:
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.Anabobazina said:The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
You thickie
https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/attractions/castles/16-fairytale-castles/0 -
Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icmBig_G_NorthWales said:
The Wales poll showsRoger said:Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Labour 18 (-10)
Conservatives 17 (+9)
Plaid 4
Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades0 -
It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.
It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs ) 0 -
How awful.Big_G_NorthWales said:I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
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I see what you did there.HYUFD said:
The Tories lead has increased with ICM on their last poll and Labour's lead has fallen in Wales from 16% in 2017 to just 1% nowRoger said:Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Surely a role in LD leaflet production awaits you0
