The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
You’re quite right.
But nobody else has any ideas either.
Other than Corbyn whose ideas veer from the mad to the disastrous via the merely amusing.
I loved the ban on private planes idea. That will gain lots of support, even if you throw your hands in the air in horror. Most amusing.
It's by far the most interesting election of my life thanks almost entirely to Labour. I mean ... wow ... it's seriously radical stuff. Makes Michael Foot look like a Blairite
Shame about the jobs it loses though
Oh and if this is about the environment what % of emissions come from private jets?
Its a stupid, stupid idea and more about envy than anything else.
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifesto
40% of the public in yesterday's poll said brexit is their main concern, 60% in Wales
Well they are not new hospitals just hospitals that should have been upgraded years ago. The police will only replace those that were culled. If you believe them on fracking then you would back Johnson pensions are just a bribe, we haven’t got the room in prisons for longer sentences and god knows what a points based immigration system is but I’m sure it will be fine.
For what it's worth, at this stage of the 2017 GE (38 days out) the rolling average Tory lead over Labour was 15.3%.
It's currently 11% for the average of the last 6 polls published in Wikipedia for this GE.
Mainly shifted by the dementia tax disaster which will not be repeated, Boris is running a much more populist campaign.
Plus the Tories were on 44 to 50% at this stage in 2017, much of which went back to Labour, the 34 to 42% the Tories are on now is much more realistic and matches the Tories voteshare from 2010 to 2017 so much harder for Labour to shift
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifesto
40% of the public in yesterday's poll said brexit is their main concern, 60% in Wales
Well they are not new hospitals just hospitals that should have been upgraded years ago. The police will only replace those that were culled. If you believe them on fracking then you would back Johnson pensions are just a bribe, we haven’t got the room in prisons for longer sentences and god knows what a points based immigration system is but I’m sure it will be fine.
Basically, it’s spaff some cash around, and the absence of any kind of fresh thinking is palpable.
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?
I don't remember the exact numbers, but I know we're a long way from it. Would require Lib Dems considerably ahead of Labour.
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifesto
So a reversal of the last 9 years. Thank heaven for the magic money tree!
I wonder if HYUFD's confidence is just a touch dented today?
Eerily reminiscent of 2017. I could be wrong and everyone decides Johnson is Dionysus reborn whilst Corbyn is Daemon.
Or, as I think most likely, people are starting to focus on what really matters in their lives. Clue: the answers don't begin with B and end in T.
The (stop) Brexit Party doing some serious damage there. Will that happen in reality? I have my doubts.
Me too. If it isn't clear yet that a vote for TBP makes Brexit less likely in most cases, it will certainly be made abundantly so over the coming weeks.
Farage said today Cameron only got a majority in 2015 due to UKIP taking Labour votes, in areas like Workington that is still the case
Bishop Auckland, Grimsby, Vale of Clwyd, Penistone and Stockbridge, Gower, Wrexham, Weaver Vale, Rother Valley, Darlington, Ashfield etc seats the Tories could gain thanks to Labour voters going Brexit Party
Workington is very rural. Darlington and Grimsby certainly are not.
They are still strong Leave won by the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
Fair enough on its brexity nature and your research.
But the constituency is not typical of northern working class towns. Most of it is "Escape to the Country" territory. (Noone has ever escaped to Grimsby),
As i noted earlier, it would draw less attention if it were more accurately named "North Lake District and Solway".
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
So new hospitals, uprate education funding, 20,000 new police, end of austerity with inflation rises plus specific 3.9% rise in the pension, moratorium on fracking, investment in prisons with airport strength screening to keep out drugs, longer sentences, point style immigration system andmore to come in the manifesto
So a reversal of the last 9 years. Thank heaven for the magic money tree!
Worth noting that Siena College, who did this poll, is an unknown, and 538 doesn't give them a rating yet. They may be great. But their numbers are very different to Fox News (an A rated pollster), who has for Wisonsin leads of 5, 4, and 9 for Sanders, Warren and Biden in order.
I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
Yes, she was in an abusive relationship. I remember him speaking about it after the inquest.
I have a huge amount of time for him, he always seems to be a very decent man. I know from friends in his constituency how well respected his is, regardless of political affiliation.
I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
Yes, she was in an abusive relationship. I remember him speaking about it after the inquest.
I have a huge amount of time for him, he always seems to be a very decent man. I know from friends in his constituency how well respected his is, regardless of political affiliation.
I think he'll be excellent. He's just the breath of fresh air Parliament needs after Bercow.
I did not know that Lindsay Hoyle's daughter tragically hung herself in her bedroom when she was 28 in 2017
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
Jeez...what a profoundly shocking event....
I've worked in m mental health, and I really do think that 99% of young people who hang themselves at home really do not mean to do it...i's a very volatile act to do in a moment of madness, and it is very easy to do....
The reason the Tories are quiet is that they don't have any ideas.
I'm serious. After 9 years they have run out of ideas. They are obsessed by one thing and one thing only, which 75% of the electorate aren't as fussed about as they are a range of other things in their lives.
There must be a sweet point for the Conservatives where the 2:1 ratio of Labour/Tory voters going LibDem delivers Labour seats before suffering crushing losses themselves to the LibDems. Anyone done any work on where that point is?
I don't remember the exact numbers, but I know we're a long way from it. Would require Lib Dems considerably ahead of Labour.
Well done Parliament for finally making a decent decision but even then they still managed to drag it out for as long as they possibly could until they literally couldn't drag it out any further.
Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)
Uh?
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.
But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.
Are the Sinn Fein MPs eligible to vote as they haven't taken the oath?
I was wondering that. Complicated because if they had turned up, there would have been no Speaker to administer the Oath. Maybe the Father of the House would have to rule on their eligibility?
Well, it might be a bit huffy but it is at least correct. There is a scenario - unlikely but by no means impossible - by which she becomes PM, even if only temporarily. There is no plausible scenario in which Sturgeon becomes PM.
So the interview was wrong, and presumably just being provocative.
Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)
Uh?
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.
But neither were MPs available to vote, so the total electorate was 648.
Are the Sinn Fein MPs eligible to vote as they haven't taken the oath?
I was wondering that. Complicated because if they had turned up, there would have been no Speaker to administer the Oath. Maybe the Father of the House would have to rule on their eligibility?
Surely the answer to that is simple?
There have been Speakers chosen directly after an election before when newly elected MPs wouldn't have taken the Oath yet, what happens then?
Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)
Uh?
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.
Even more technically true, touche.
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.
Is there law requiring a by-election to be held, or can a seat remain vacant for the duration of a Parliament?
It remains vacant until Parliament moves to hold a by-election. I don’t think there’s a law prescribing when that has to happen, although doubtless the SC would invent one if necessary.
The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.
Fact or OPINION?
You thickie
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?
The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.
Fact or OPINION?
You thickie
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?
I have an above ground palace as befits my magnificence
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me
Will words fail Boris in condemning it. Needs a strong response.
Boris will weigh things up and wonder which response will better suit him.....he'll go in for the Paris Accord knowing that the idiots who think global warming is a lefty plot will hardly vote for Corbyn....
The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real
White supremacist Richard Spencer makes racist slurs on tape leaked by rival Ex-Breitbart writer, Milo Yiannopoulos, released expletive-laden audio recording amid deepening in-fighting on the far right
Lindsay Hoyle gets exactly 50% of the membership of the House.
Just over, surely - we have two by-elections pending (Bercow and Mann)
Uh?
Technically true, but will become irrelevant once Parliament is dissolved.
There would only be by-elections if the writs were moved so it's not even technically true.
Even more technically true, touche.
But technically normally the by-election is still pending even if the write wasn't moved yet would it not?
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.
Is there law requiring a by-election to be held, or can a seat remain vacant for the duration of a Parliament?
It remains vacant until Parliament moves to hold a by-election. I don’t think there’s a law prescribing when that has to happen, although doubtless the SC would invent one if necessary.
The Chief Whip usually issues the writ within 3 months but occasionally they have delayed longer - over 6 months a couple of times.
No writ, no by election. And obviously with dissolution of Parliament and a General Election there ain't no by elections.
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Tories lead has increased with ICM on their last poll and Labour's lead has fallen in Wales from 16% in 2017 to just 1% now
Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Wales poll shows
Labour 18 (-10) Conservatives 17 (+9) Plaid 4 Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Oh absolutely. Labour will likely be averaging 30% by the weekend, and will continue to head Northwards as the robot voters come home.
I wouldn't anticipate their getting all the way back up to 40% by polling day, but the vote share ought to be substantially better than would've been suggested both by pre-election polling, and Corbyn's abysmal personal ratings.
The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real
The suicide cycle within families is difficult to defeat, once one is successful it’s incredibly difficult to fight against. I’ve spent 43 years fighting the issue across two generations. It’s destructive and irrational almost certainly grounded in depressive genes. There is no logic that you can deploy you just hope that it eventually fades. I’m currently comfortable with the overall positive nature of the ‘family’ but I’m always on the watch for the signs that things are going wrong. Electronic communication has helped but you can not always be there. It is an illness, possibly inherent but very real
Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Wales poll shows
Labour 18 (-10) Conservatives 17 (+9) Plaid 4 Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
For the first time since 1931, to be exact. Then the score was Tory 11, Lib 8, Lab 16.
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
Oh absolutely. Labour will likely be averaging 30% by the weekend, and will continue to head Northwards as the robot voters come home.
I wouldn't anticipate their getting all the way back up to 40% by polling day, but the vote share ought to be substantially better than would've been suggested both by pre-election polling, and Corbyn's abysmal personal ratings.
The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.
Fact or OPINION?
You thickie
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?
The opprobrium Tory Swinson gets on here is seriously disconcerting. She seems a perfectly nice lady to me, PBers’ loathing for her really is bizarre.
She's a threat. She has to be neutralised in case she gathers momentum.
If it was that, I’d be relatively reassured. LibDems have always attracted disproportionate flak from the old parties because they are the only real threat to their cosy two-party cartel (aka political stitch up).
But I fear that the fact that she is a younger female politician does have something to do with it.
It is OPINION she is crap and economical with the truth. A dogmatic toerag.
Fact or OPINION?
You thickie
Fact for me you cretinous half witted moron. Back under your rock where you belong.
Whereas you can only dream and aspire to being under a rock of your own?
I have an above ground palace as befits my magnificence
Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Wales poll shows
Labour 18 (-10) Conservatives 17 (+9) Plaid 4 Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.
It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs )
Looking at the last thread two interesting NEW polls. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Tories lead has increased with ICM on their last poll and Labour's lead has fallen in Wales from 16% in 2017 to just 1% now
Comments
Oh and if this is about the environment what % of emissions come from private jets?
Its a stupid, stupid idea and more about envy than anything else.
It's currently 11% for the average of the last 6 polls published in Wikipedia for this GE.
An excellent choice and the start of the healing of the speakers office so debased by Bercow
Waffle waffle waffle
Plus the Tories were on 44 to 50% at this stage in 2017, much of which went back to Labour, the 34 to 42% the Tories are on now is much more realistic and matches the Tories voteshare from 2010 to 2017 so much harder for Labour to shift
Typical Boris... well out of date
But the constituency is not typical of northern working class towns. Most of it is "Escape to the Country" territory. (Noone has ever escaped to Grimsby),
As i noted earlier, it would draw less attention if it were more accurately named "North Lake District and Solway".
Let us hope this bodes well for the forthcoming election.
What a terrible thing to happen to him and his family
Worth noting that Siena College, who did this poll, is an unknown, and 538 doesn't give them a rating yet. They may be great. But their numbers are very different to Fox News (an A rated pollster), who has for Wisonsin leads of 5, 4, and 9 for Sanders, Warren and Biden in order.
I have a huge amount of time for him, he always seems to be a very decent man. I know from friends in his constituency how well respected his is, regardless of political affiliation.
Later peeps!
Jeez...what a profoundly shocking event....
I've worked in m mental health, and I really do think that 99% of young people who hang themselves at home really do not mean to do it...i's a very volatile act to do in a moment of madness, and it is very easy to do....
Moving the writ moves the by-election from simply pending to scheduled.
Trump gives formal notice to the UN he will withdraw from the Paris accord on the 4th November 2020
Words fail me
There have been Speakers chosen directly after an election before when newly elected MPs wouldn't have taken the Oath yet, what happens then?
He is a disaster for the US and all of us
White supremacist Richard Spencer makes racist slurs on tape leaked by rival
Ex-Breitbart writer, Milo Yiannopoulos, released expletive-laden audio recording amid deepening in-fighting on the far right
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/04/white-supremacist-richard-spencer-racist-slurs-tape-milo-yiannopoulos
No writ, no by election. And obviously with dissolution of Parliament and a General Election there ain't no by elections.
Luciana Berger is new, well known and Jewish, but a 20 point swing is a big ask. And I cannot see Labour gaining the seat for obvious reasons.
Anyway I've piled in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR1snnEx6oI
Labour 18 (-10)
Conservatives 17 (+9)
Plaid 4
Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
I wouldn't anticipate their getting all the way back up to 40% by polling day, but the vote share ought to be substantially better than would've been suggested both by pre-election polling, and Corbyn's abysmal personal ratings.
NEW THREAD
https://www.visitscotland.com/see-do/attractions/castles/16-fairytale-castles/
It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs
Surely a role in LD leaflet production awaits you