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I think it is fair to say that Johnson and the rest of the Conservative party do not give a monkeys about Northern Ireland. Why would they as English naitonalists? What the deal will do is re-orient the Northern Ireland economy to the south and to the EU. That will speed up reunificaiotn and probably make it a little less painful than it would have been.Beibheirli_C said:
OK Thanks.SouthamObserver said:
Congress has signed off on the WA we now have.Beibheirli_C said:
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.eek said:
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster
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Sadly yes. Hopefully not for many years...alb1on said:
Is it possible for him to be less active and dynamic than he used to be?Nigelb said:Amongst other things, this will now also be the election of Sir Henry Bellingham's End...
In a letter to party members Sir Henry, who is 64, says that he had "agonised" over the decision but always wanted to depart gracefully before people started saying "poor Henry he is not quite as active or dynamic as he used to be"....0 -
I said yesterday backing Labour to win most seats in Wales was the way to go.marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
#LegendaryModesty0 -
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Mr. NorthWales, it's daft someone not even standing (Sturgeon) wants to be there, but the SNP is significantly larger as a Parliamentary party than the Lib Dems, so they have quite a good case if a debate has more than just the big two.0
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Patronising, paternalist rubbish. Sozza as you are usually quite reasoned an' all but what you have written explains why your lot will be out of power for so long. Not listening to the electorate but telling them a bit harder what is good for them.kinabalu said:
I would not put it like that. That sounds patronizing and what I feel isn't.TOPPING said:Ah I see. They don't know what's good for them. Gotit.
I would more put it like this -
If you offer people what you think they should be wanting but it turns out that they want something else, something which you think they shouldn't want, the response should be to offer them what you think they should want a bit harder, rather than to change your offer and pretend that you now agree that what you actually think they shouldn't want is not only what they do want but what they are right to want.
It's called integrity.0 -
From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today
Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.0 -
And if they want to vote for frictionless trade with the republic and GB, how should they vote?Philip_Thompson said:
Then they can vote for that if they don't like the arrangements. Job done!Polruan said:
I think they also had some enthusiasm for a frictionless border with Great Britain.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? I thought they wanted the wanted a frictionless border, which they now have. And if they don't, they can vote to end the arrangements. Win/win.Beibheirli_C said:
OK Thanks.SouthamObserver said:
Congress has signed off on the WA we now have.Beibheirli_C said:
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.eek said:
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster0 -
Once again, I agree. If Boris wins a majority, I wonder how long it will be until they realise that jettisoning Scotland is the way to go...SouthamObserver said:
I think it is fair to say that Johnson and the rest of the Conservative party do not give a monkeys about Northern Ireland. Why would they as English naitonalists? What the deal will do is re-orient the Northern Ireland economy to the south and to the EU. That will speed up reunificaiotn and probably make it a little less painful than it would have been.Beibheirli_C said:
OK Thanks.SouthamObserver said:
Congress has signed off on the WA we now have.Beibheirli_C said:
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.eek said:
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster0 -
Yes, all three Coventry candidates were announced yesterday on the local Conservative website.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
She's updated her Twitter bio already to say she is the candidate.RobinWiggs said:
Mattie Heaven?Pulpstar said:
No, of Iranian heritage.nunu2 said:
Jewish?Pulpstar said:
The Coventry South Tory candidate is VERY well positioned to play this to full advantage. You'll see what I mean when she's announced.FrancisUrquhart said:
And nobody is the least bit shocked.Brom said:I believe I mentioned this lady over the weekend. Probably a good candidate for Gaza Central but not so much Coventry South.
Her social media history is getting quite a bit of exposure in the press now.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/11913771974346383380 -
Siri, define "failing upwards".williamglenn said:1 -
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.SouthamObserver said:
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.Gabs2 said:
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.SouthamObserver said:
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.Polruan said:
I agree your (or my) opinion don’t matter a whole lot. If I was confident there would be a Democratic choice I’d be fairly relaxed about it, but it’s hard to see the mechanism for that choice when we are having a general election where the party in favour of this process waves away any discussion of specifics, and will almost certainly claim it has the ‘will of the people’ on its side when implementing changes in future.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.Polruan said:
Still https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/mutual-recognition-can-uk-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it )Philip_Thompson said:
No it is not common ground. Regulatory alignment is not required in order to avoid Non Tariff Barriers.Polruan said:I guess we must be at cross purposes but I thought it was common ground that regulatory divergence etc environmental standards are off the table?
Alignment is just one option available to avoid NTBs actually and the principle of mutual recognition instead is a valuable one to work with.
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
Furthermore of them.0 -
Nick Fucking Timothy who lost the Tory majority against Jeremy Corbyn? FFS Meriden aren't so much as scraping the barrel as much as puking in a barrel then scraping it.williamglenn said:1 -
Just the usual bunch of fruit-cakes, no doubt ....Animal_pb said:
I'm not sure who she was trying to apeel to by being so candied.Polruan said:
Don’t think they are her currant views.Beibheirli_C said:
Ms Sultana is certainly raisin her profile......Floater said:
Roger might be.......FrancisUrquhart said:
And nobody is the least bit shocked.Brom said:I believe I mentioned this lady over the weekend. Probably a good candidate for Gaza Central but not so much Coventry South.
Her social media history is getting quite a bit of exposure in the press now.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/11913771974346383380 -
Are those figures rightmarke09 said:From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today
Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.0 -
It’s starting to look like a trend - a number of early polls showing Lab up and Lib down by similar amounts.marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
BXP holding steady - perhaps not unsurprising as the poll also shows 60% of Welsh voters citing Brexit as the most important issue in this election - ahead of England.0 -
Diolch, looks very plausible, much like what myself and YDoethur have been saying.llef said:welsh poll results here - labour lead tories by 1%
assuming UNS, then relative to 2017
labour win 18 seats (down 10)
con 17 (up 9)
plaid 4
libs 1(up 1)
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-11-04/poll-labour-has-1-welsh-lead-but-most-voters-say-corbyn-s-poor-or-terrible/
In practice, I expect Corby will have clawed some of the losses back by early Dec.
Net effect of the 'Remain Alliance', ABSOLUTE ZERO. LibDems booted out of B&R.
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To leave the arragements and encourage the Irish to agree a frictionless free trade deal with the UK.Polruan said:
And if they want to vote for frictionless trade with the republic and GB, how should they vote?Philip_Thompson said:
Then they can vote for that if they don't like the arrangements. Job done!Polruan said:
I think they also had some enthusiasm for a frictionless border with Great Britain.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? I thought they wanted the wanted a frictionless border, which they now have. And if they don't, they can vote to end the arrangements. Win/win.Beibheirli_C said:
OK Thanks.SouthamObserver said:
Congress has signed off on the WA we now have.Beibheirli_C said:
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.eek said:
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster0 -
Did someone say this poll is jaw droppingTheScreamingEagles said:
I said yesterday backing Labour to win most seats in Wales was the way to go.marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
#LegendaryModesty
Maybe for lib dems0 -
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.0
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By 53% to 26% Brits say Jo Swinson should be invited to take part in the live TV debate happening between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic0
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Tory gains in Wales could offset their losses in Scotland, meaning they'd only need a net gain of 10 seats or so in England to get their majority. Sounds achievable when you look at it like that.0
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They are the seat changes, I think they are right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are those figures rightmarke09 said:From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today
Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.0 -
So Wales should offset any Scottish losses for the Tories. So in England they will need a net gain of roughly 15 seats for a majority.0
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I did years ago and supported Yes in 2014.Beibheirli_C said:Once again, I agree. If Boris wins a majority, I wonder how long it will be until they realise that jettisoning Scotland is the way to go...
To quote TSE #LegendaryModesty0 -
Voter breakdowns on whether Jo Swinson should be invited to the TV debate between the PM and Jeremy Corbyn:
Con voters: 43% should / 40% shouldn't
Labour voters: 63% should / 18% shouldn't
Lib Dem voters: 87% should / 6% shouldn't
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic0 -
Don't think Johnson would No Deal myself. I'll be laying that again if we get another round of 'cliff edge' drama.SouthamObserver said:They'll win them because of Corbyn, but the challenge will be keeping them. Especially now that we are set to No Deal in December 2020.
But on Corbyn, assuming for the sake of argument that he IS disliked by the 'working class', why do you think that is?0 -
Having previously been the agent in Alyn and Deeside it will be especially pleasing if it finally turns blue this time.YBarddCwsc said:
Diolch, looks very plausible, much like what myself and YDoethur have been saying.llef said:welsh poll results here - labour lead tories by 1%
assuming UNS, then relative to 2017
labour win 18 seats (down 10)
con 17 (up 9)
plaid 4
libs 1(up 1)
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-11-04/poll-labour-has-1-welsh-lead-but-most-voters-say-corbyn-s-poor-or-terrible/
In practice, I expect Corby will have clawed some of the losses back by early Dec.
Net effect of the 'Remain Alliance', ABSOLUTE ZERO. LibDems booted out of B&R.0 -
I imagine Wales will be the strongest region for BXP. It's those consituencies in the South where they will poll sub 10% that could be enough to scupper Tory hopes of a majority.nunu2 said:
Damn, imagine if the BXP weren't standing......marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker0 -
Tory HQ needs to pound that message home relentlessly in the constituencies most vulnerable to BXP sabotage!nunu2 said:
Damn, imagine if the BXP weren't standing......marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker0 -
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
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Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.Philip_Thompson said:
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.SouthamObserver said:
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.Gabs2 said:
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.SouthamObserver said:
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.Polruan said:
I future.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.Polruan said:
Still https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/mutual-recognition-can-uk-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it )Philip_Thompson said:
No it is not common ground. Regulatory alignment is not required in order to avoid Non Tariff Barriers.Polruan said:I guess we must be at cross purposes but I thought it was common ground that regulatory divergence etc environmental standards are off the table?
Alignment is just one option available to avoid NTBs actually and the principle of mutual recognition instead is a valuable one to work with.
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
Furthermore of them.
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To think I was accused of trolling when I said in late 2016 Nigel Farage wasn't keen on Brexit.
He's doing his best in 2019 to stop Brexit, if he does, he deserves a peerage.1 -
The PB Gold Standard (2005 - 2015) enters the fray.Scrapheap_as_was said:
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Sorry. Bit slow today. ThanksYBarddCwsc said:
They are the seat changes, I think they are right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are those figures rightmarke09 said:From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today
Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.0 -
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
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Because the working classes generally like and feel proud of Britain, its culture and its traditions, something that is literal anathema to Corbynite socialists?kinabalu said:
Don't think Johnson would No Deal myself. I'll be laying that again if we get another round of 'cliff edge' drama.SouthamObserver said:They'll win them because of Corbyn, but the challenge will be keeping them. Especially now that we are set to No Deal in December 2020.
But on Corbyn, assuming for the sake of argument that he IS disliked by the 'working class', why do you think that is?0 -
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.SouthamObserver said:Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.0 -
I think many made the point when he tried to prevent Cameron getting a majority and having a Brexit referendum in the first place!TheScreamingEagles said:To think I was accused of trolling when I said in late 2016 Nigel Farage wasn't keen on Brexit.
He's doing his best in 2019 to stop Brexit, if he does, he deserves a peerage.0 -
Absolubtely bang in line with https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_wales.htmlllef said:welsh poll results here - labour lead tories by 1%
assuming UNS, then relative to 2017
labour win 18 seats (down 10)
con 17 (up 9)
plaid 4
libs 1(up 1)
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-11-04/poll-labour-has-1-welsh-lead-but-most-voters-say-corbyn-s-poor-or-terrible/0 -
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).Burgessian said:
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
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That's true. No party or politician has a divine right to anybody's vote. I just get a bit frustrated sometimes with the idea of people getting conned and exploited. The key thing is to blame the conners not the connees. You retain your moral high ground then.Cookie said:Well there's no inherent reason that the dividing line in politics should be between middle class and working class, nor which the upper class should side with if class IS the distinction between the two. At other times in history the dividing line politically has been religious, or which of two candidates for the throne you supported, or urban/rural. And of course in the USA politics no longer follows socio-economic divides.
If people no longer feel a party represents them, they will looks elsewhere.0 -
He can’t make his mind up whether he’s Joe Wood or Joe Woods. I’m reserving judgment.Brom said:
Very easy to spoof. Just need a Palestine flag and some sort or pro Liverpool fc blurb and it becomes hard to tell who is real and who is not.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Some of the Corbyn 'outrider' accounts were claiming it was a fake account, but a number of Jewish journalists had named a member of a Midlands CLP as being behind the account.Floater said:0 -
Full disclosure: I have piled onto that market, since I would make the odds of the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats something like 1.5.0
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The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.0
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Farage is well aware aware of the same - the more seats he costs the Tories the more he has power, in his mind.nico67 said:
That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .AlastairMeeks said:Talking of constituencies:
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/11913413000015175680 -
It gives NI the choice of being stuffed in UK trade or stuffed in ROI trade & politics. Basically it has to pick and choose and lose something which is a huge backward step from where it is now.Philip_Thompson said:
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.SouthamObserver said:Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
But what do you care so long as you get your precious Brexit?0 -
The point you very strongly made was that when it comes to fundamental human rights - such as the right to vote for those who set your laws - the majority should never be able to deny the minority. It is clear that you have now pulled back from that position and I welcome it. We are now on the same side, Philip!Philip_Thompson said:
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.SouthamObserver said:Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
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Johnson's Deal is not going to help the NI economy either.SouthamObserver said:
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.Philip_Thompson said:
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.SouthamObserver said:
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.Gabs2 said:
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.SouthamObserver said:
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.Polruan said:
I future.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.Polruan said:
Still https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/mutual-recognition-can-uk-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it )Philip_Thompson said:
No it is not common ground. Regulatory alignment is not required in order to avoid Non Tariff Barriers.Polruan said:I guess we must be at cross purposes but I thought it was common ground that regulatory divergence etc environmental standards are off the table?
Alignment is just one option available to avoid NTBs actually and the principle of mutual recognition instead is a valuable one to work with.
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
Furthermore of them.0 -
They could win a set with the right candidate, someone who was working class & from the Valleys community & reasonably well-known. Perhaps even ex-Labour, or Labour maverick.Burgessian said:
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Those seats have previous form in voting for ex-Labour independents (e.g., SO Davies in Merthyr Tydfil or Peter Law/Dai Davies in Blaenau Gwent).
Fortunately, TBP -- like the LibDems -- believe the way to win seats in Wales is to look around London or South East England and see if they can identify the biggest fool who knows nothing about Wales and ask him to stand.1 -
Thanks Alastair. Noted!AlastairMeeks said:
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).Burgessian said:
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Actually I agree that Wales is their best chance but I can't for the life of me see which actual seat it could be. Would need to be some kind of bizarre five-way split. As I say, not happening.0 -
Seem to be quite a few Lib Dem, Green and Brexit "voters" who turn tail at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder back to Tory & Labour.
Quite funny really.2 -
Looks like we are heading for a rerun of 2017 to me.
After only a few days, LD and BXP both heading downwards and at a fairly rapid rate.
Con campaign off to a slow start - it's irrelevant that Parliament is still sitting - they should be campaigning as hard as Lab right now.
Only possible difference is that Boris will be a stronger campaigner than May.
But at this early stage it looks to me as if we are likely headed for:
Con 40-44
Lab 36-41
(Slightly wider range for Lab)1 -
On the reverse side, labour also firming up a tad.Pulpstar said:The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
0 -
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.Anabobazina said:
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:
0 -
I’m not sure it’s that straightforward, the BP could well do more damage to Labour in Wales than to the Tories .nunu2 said:
Damn, imagine if the BXP weren't standing......marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker0 -
That depends on where the LDs are losing their votes to. If it is 2017 Labour voters in 2017 Labour seats primarily going back to Labour then it will make very little difference to the LDs in their Tory target seats.Pulpstar said:The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
0 -
Unfair on the other two who look to be perfectly reasonable candidates. You will of course have a point if Timothy is chosen...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nick Fucking Timothy who lost the Tory majority against Jeremy Corbyn? FFS Meriden aren't so much as scraping the barrel as much as puking in a barrel then scraping it.williamglenn said:0 -
It's the nature of an FPTP election.Pulpstar said:Seem to be quite a few Lib Dem, Green and Brexit "voters" who turn tail at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder back to Tory & Labour.
Quite funny really.
0 -
Haven't the Tories gone up by more in more polls?SouthamObserver said:
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.Anabobazina said:
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
That is correct. Look at Gower or Vale of Clwyd in 2015 (UKIP stood) or 2017 (no UKIP). There were Tory gains 2015, Tory losses in 2017.nico67 said:
I’m not sure it’s that straightforward, the BP could well do more damage to Labour in Wales than to the Tories .nunu2 said:
Damn, imagine if the BXP weren't standing......marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker
These are (mainly) former Labour voters in TBP in Wales.0 -
Stupid unforced error by Bozzajob – really no need to make that call whatsoever.SouthamObserver said:
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.Anabobazina said:
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=210 -
The seats where the LEAVE did best are absolutely rock solid Labour. Would BXP really be able to take those seats.contrarian said:
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
0 -
It doesn't need to be a bizarre five way split if the Brexit party support is reasonably concentrated. 30% in a constituency would be enough in a three and a bit way split (see Thurrock in 2015 for the kind of thing I have in mind). Maybe Llanelli: the 2015 result is suggestive.Burgessian said:
Thanks Alastair. Noted!AlastairMeeks said:
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).Burgessian said:
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Actually I agree that Wales is their best chance but I can't for the life of me see which actual seat it could be. Would need to be some kind of bizarre five-way split. As I say, not happening.0 -
There are very few Labour v Lib Dem marginals. The main battle is Tory v Lib Dem , all Labour voters there need to hold their nose and vote for the latter .0
-
I am fully behind Swinson being in the debates, she will win Remainers from CorbynGallowgate said:Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=210 -
Torfaen looks the likeliest candidate for BXP (But unlikely) GAIN to me. I don't think they'll get it but I reckon they'll be closest (25 pts behind Labour maybe) there.nunu2 said:
The seats where the LEAVE did best are absolutely rock solid Labour. Would BXP really be able to take those seats.contrarian said:
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?AlastairMeeks said:Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
0 -
The issue is that Labour were in 2nd place in a lot of these seats in 2017.nico67 said:There are very few Labour v Lib Dem marginals. The main battle is Tory v Lib Dem , all Labour voters there need to hold their nose and vote for the latter .
0 -
I think anything is possible except a re-run of 2017.MikeL said:Looks like we are heading for a rerun of 2017 to me.
After only a few days, LD and BXP both heading downwards and at a fairly rapid rate.
Con campaign off to a slow start - it's irrelevant that Parliament is still sitting - they should be campaigning as hard as Lab right now.
Only possible difference is that Boris will be a stronger campaigner than May.
But at this early stage it looks to me as if we are likely headed for:
Con 40-44
Lab 36-41
(Slightly wider range for Lab)0 -
Sylvia Hermon is a Unionist so if SF stands aside for her it makes no difference to the Unionist tally at Westminsterwilliamglenn said:
This move feels like the opening salvo in trying to win a border poll by reaching out across the divide.IanB2 said:
If only the mainland parties saw that things are so critical.Anabobazina said:
Extraordinary stuff. I didn't see that coming.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1191342263219171330?s=21NickPalmer said:Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.
The irony for Sinn Fein is that Bozo’s Brexit deal signifies a first small step toward a United Ireland.0 -
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.Pulpstar said:The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.0 -
Probably. They are clearly going to finish with most MPs. But if Johnson does not get a majority he is finished. I still expect him to, but he is giving 2017 Labour voters every reason to hold their noses and vote Labour once more. He is lucky that Corbyn seems so determined to put them off.RobD said:
Haven't the Tories gone up by more in more polls?SouthamObserver said:
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.Anabobazina said:
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:
0 -
Well I quite genuinely disagree. The old saying that "true political leadership is about shaping public opinion not following it" is one I have always had a lot of time for.TOPPING said:Patronising, paternalist rubbish. Sozza as you are usually quite reasoned an' all but what you have written explains why your lot will be out of power for so long. Not listening to the electorate but telling them a bit harder what is good for them.
0 -
I said the majority can not take away the rights of the minority.SouthamObserver said:
The point you very strongly made was that when it comes to fundamental human rights - such as the right to vote for those who set your laws - the majority should never be able to deny the minority. It is clear that you have now pulled back from that position and I welcome it. We are now on the same side, Philip!Philip_Thompson said:
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.SouthamObserver said:Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
The majority are not denying the minority their rights here! There are determining their future at an election, which is democratic, but the rights remain. Future elections can choose future paths, that is the difference.0 -
Thanks . I think what we’re going to see is a case of big regional differences in how the BP effects the Tories . But as you pointed out with that example some Labour Leavers will simply not vote Tory .YBarddCwsc said:
That is correct. Look at Gower or Vale of Clwyd in 2015 (UKIP stood) or 2017 (no UKIP). There were Tory gains 2015, Tory losses in 2017.nico67 said:
I’m not sure it’s that straightforward, the BP could well do more damage to Labour in Wales than to the Tories .nunu2 said:
Damn, imagine if the BXP weren't standing......marke09 said:Welsh poll
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker
These are (mainly) former Labour voters in TBP in Wales.
0 -
This is worrying for Labour.GIN1138 said:
The labour share in many polls is rising but the Tory (comfortable) lead isnt getting any smaller as they keep up with the Labour increases.0 -
If the Conservatives finish with a big lead, then seats that swing against them will be offset by seats that swing more strongly in their favour.alb1on said:
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.Pulpstar said:The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.1 -
I don't know how the Lib Dems can fairly be excluded. They have been in the 20s in multiple polls.Gallowgate said:Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=210 -
Utter rubbish, the only polls in Northern Ireland shpwing majority support for a united Ireland are with a hard border with the Republic of Ireland which the Boris Deal explicitly avoidsIanB2 said:
If only the mainland parties saw that things are so critical.Anabobazina said:
Extraordinary stuff. I didn't see that coming.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1191342263219171330?s=21NickPalmer said:Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.
The irony for Sinn Fein is that Bozo’s Brexit deal signifies a first small step toward a United Ireland.0 -
Wow, what a flood.Big_G_NorthWales said:Guido
In total three candidates have resigned from TBP the day that the candidates list was announced0 -
It's astounding how quickly it's happened. Who are these people that just blatantly lie to themselves and / or to pollsters? If I said that I would vote for a minor party, then that's exactly what I would do!Pulpstar said:Seem to be quite a few Lib Dem, Green and Brexit "voters" who turn tail at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder back to Tory & Labour.
Quite funny really.0 -
Hoyle 244, so almost there. Winterton out.0
-
Credible 2nd place in the first round of the Speaker vote for Eleanor Laing but Hoyle the clear frontrunner0
-
Tories are keeping up with Labour increases so far, therefore maintaining their leadsRobD said:
Haven't the Tories gone up by more in more polls?SouthamObserver said:
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.Anabobazina said:
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Bryant 120
Harman 59
Hoyle 244
Laing 122
Winterton 300 -
Because being in the 20s in a couple of polls is not enough.Gabs2 said:
I don't know how the Lib Dems can fairly be excluded. They have been in the 20s in multiple polls.Gallowgate said:Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=210 -
Quite. It's worth pointing out though.Gabs2 said:
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.SouthamObserver said:
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.Philip_Thompson said:
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.Polruan said:
I agree your (or my) opinion don’t matter a whole lot. If I was confident there would be a Democratic choice I’d be fairly relaxed about it, but it’s hard to see the mechanism for that choice when we are having a general election where the party in favour of this process waves away any discussion of specifics, and will almost certainly claim it has the ‘will of the people’ on its side when implementing changes in future.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.Polruan said:
Still challenging I think to move down a specific mutual recognition path which the EU accept to the extent that it doesn’t introduce any barriers, but which doesn’t fetter our ability to lower NTBs with other countries. ( I think this from the IfG is still as current as it was a couple of years ago in terms of the choice we need to make https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/mutual-recognition-can-uk-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it )Philip_Thompson said:
No it is not common ground. Regulatory alignment is not required in order to avoid Non Tariff Barriers.Polruan said:I guess we must be at cross purposes but I thought it was common ground that regulatory divergence etc environmental standards are off the table?
Alignment is just one option available to avoid NTBs actually and the principle of mutual recognition instead is a valuable one to work with.
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
Furthermore it also doesn't matter that much if there are a few barriers while we keep as much as possible eliminated with the EU, while simultaneously lowering with other nations. Comparing to similar developed economies to our own the UK is not doing that great within the EU and most global economic development and growth is coming from outside Europe not inside it. That is where the opportunities are and it is up to us to make the most of them.0 -
Your midpoint is 80 for the two combined. I think that's too high.MikeL said:Looks like we are heading for a rerun of 2017 to me.
After only a few days, LD and BXP both heading downwards and at a fairly rapid rate.
Con campaign off to a slow start - it's irrelevant that Parliament is still sitting - they should be campaigning as hard as Lab right now.
Only possible difference is that Boris will be a stronger campaigner than May.
But at this early stage it looks to me as if we are likely headed for:
Con 40-44
Lab 36-41
(Slightly wider range for Lab)0 -
But not from the LDs as there are so few which could. So an additional 5-6 seats won by the LDs over and above UNS means 5-6 more seats the Conservatives need to take from Labour.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives finish with a big lead, then seats that swing against them will be offset by seats that swing more strongly in their favour.alb1on said:
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.Pulpstar said:The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.0 -
Who are the 6% of LD voters who do not want her to appear?Gabs2 said:
I don't know how the Lib Dems can fairly be excluded. They have been in the 20s in multiple polls.Gallowgate said:Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=21
0 -
Close between Laing and Bryant for second but Laing will hope to pick up Harman and Winterton's votes now (Winterton signed her nomination papers) as the only female left in the raceAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Bryant 120
Harman 59
Hoyle 244
Laing 122
Winterton 300 -
Why? Its what happened in 2017 and if there's a squeeze again that's quite plausible.rcs1000 said:
Your midpoint is 80 for the two combined. I think that's too high.MikeL said:Looks like we are heading for a rerun of 2017 to me.
After only a few days, LD and BXP both heading downwards and at a fairly rapid rate.
Con campaign off to a slow start - it's irrelevant that Parliament is still sitting - they should be campaigning as hard as Lab right now.
Only possible difference is that Boris will be a stronger campaigner than May.
But at this early stage it looks to me as if we are likely headed for:
Con 40-44
Lab 36-41
(Slightly wider range for Lab)0 -
Probably those voters who think the debates are a monstrosity and should be cancelled.RobD said:
Who are the 6% of LD voters who do not want her to appear?Gabs2 said:
I don't know how the Lib Dems can fairly be excluded. They have been in the 20s in multiple polls.Gallowgate said:Here’s one for @HYUFD and @Big_G_NorthWales to conveniently ignore.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=210
