My own view is that the floor for the Lib Dems is much higher than in 2017, say 14%, and that 45-49% is baked in for the right wing parties (albeit, we don't know what the split will be between Conservative and TBP). Adding in 7% or so for the rest, that leaves Labour getting, at best, 30-34%.
Evening all. A couple of things I personally think may change seat numbers and are leaning me more towards a larger Tory majority than may seem possible,
1. In Scotland, I am in the camp that believes that the Unionist voters know this is a "last stand" election i.e. if the SNP make gains, the case for a second referendum becomes almost unstoppable. So I think Unionist tactical voting, despite Brexit, is as strong as in 2017 as it is a case of holding your nose and vote for the best Unionist candidate.
What has been less commented on - and I think could be a big factor - is how many 2017 SNP voters get cold feet at the possibility of a second referendum and what that entails, and so don't bother to come out and vote? In 2017, if you voted SNP, it was a safe bet. The 2016 referendum was lost and it seemed unlikely there would be another poll soon. It is clear now it may be and I suspect some SNP voters may be tempted to abstain.
2. What the last 2 years have shown is that a weak Government gets nothing done. There may therefore be a temptation amongst some voters (and I am thinking Labour Leave voters here) to cast their votes for their Tories for the first (and only) time to sort out the situation. In that case, BJ probably wins more Northern and Midlands leave seats than expected.
- Tory vote from 2017 holding up well. A few who are maybe's, but I suspect most will get over the line on 12th December.
- Wollaston a far from universally popular LibDem candidate. Wannabe anti-Tory tactical voter (Labour in 2017) not sure if he can bring himself to vote for her. Others who voted LibDem last time but might join the Can't Be Arsed Party for the day.
- Met a delightful and fascinating older lady who was a Communist in her youth and, because she really likes the candidate, might complete her political journey by voting Conservative for the first time in her life.
What has been less commented on - and I think could be a big factor - is how many 2017 SNP voters get cold feet at the possibility of a second referendum and what that entails, and so don't bother to come out and vote? In 2017, if you voted SNP, it was a safe bet. The 2016 referendum was lost and it seemed unlikely there would be another poll soon. It is clear now it may be and I suspect some SNP voters may be tempted to abstain.
I don't see that. The 2017 campaign from the Ruth Davidson Party was wholly about telling Nicola "we said No", and a second independence referendum was very much a live issue in the immediate aftermath of triggering Article 50.
Close between Laing and Bryant for second but Laing will hope to pick up Harman and Winterton's votes now (Winterton signed her nomination papers) as the only female left in the race
Obvious now that it’s going to be Hoyle. Parliament isn’t going to put diehard Brexiter Laing in the chair.
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
To win, yes. To prevent the Tories winning? Much easier job. Agreement on a referendum will come easy if the Tories are not largest party.
- Tory vote from 2017 holding up well. A few who are maybe's, but I suspect most will get over the line on 12th December.
- Wollaston a far from universally popular LibDem candidate. Wannabe anti-Tory tactical voter (Labour in 2017) not sure if he can bring himself to vote for her. Others who voted LibDem last time but might join the Can't Be Arsed Party for the day.
- Met a delightful and fascinating older lady who was a Communist in her youth and, because she really likes the candidate, might complete her political journey by voting Conservative for the first time in her life.
A really enjoyable afternoon.
Good on you for putting your shoe leather where your mouth is.
Comments
I know which I suspect.
They need to put their resources into making sure they convince Labour voters to vote tactically in those Tory v Lib Dem marginals .
We know how things developed during the campaign...
Professor Roger Awan-Scully
4 November 2019
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
Posted with no comment
1. In Scotland, I am in the camp that believes that the Unionist voters know this is a "last stand" election i.e. if the SNP make gains, the case for a second referendum becomes almost unstoppable. So I think Unionist tactical voting, despite Brexit, is as strong as in 2017 as it is a case of holding your nose and vote for the best Unionist candidate.
What has been less commented on - and I think could be a big factor - is how many 2017 SNP voters get cold feet at the possibility of a second referendum and what that entails, and so don't bother to come out and vote? In 2017, if you voted SNP, it was a safe bet. The 2016 referendum was lost and it seemed unlikely there would be another poll soon. It is clear now it may be and I suspect some SNP voters may be tempted to abstain.
2. What the last 2 years have shown is that a weak Government gets nothing done. There may therefore be a temptation amongst some voters (and I am thinking Labour Leave voters here) to cast their votes for their Tories for the first (and only) time to sort out the situation. In that case, BJ probably wins more Northern and Midlands leave seats than expected.
- Tory vote from 2017 holding up well. A few who are maybe's, but I suspect most will get over the line on 12th December.
- Wollaston a far from universally popular LibDem candidate. Wannabe anti-Tory tactical voter (Labour in 2017) not sure if he can bring himself to vote for her. Others who voted LibDem last time but might join the Can't Be Arsed Party for the day.
- Met a delightful and fascinating older lady who was a Communist in her youth and, because she really likes the candidate, might complete her political journey by voting Conservative for the first time in her life.
A really enjoyable afternoon.
Hoyle needs to put on 44 votes to win.
I'll get my coat
Michael Gove
Ian Blackford
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Diane Abbott
Caroline Lucas
Nigel Dodds
And that’s without the smallest effort.
NEW THREAD
Two weeks later that switched to Labour 44% v Tory 34% .
We’ve seen these obituaries for Labour before in Wales . I’ll believe it’s happened once the results are in otherwise I’m dubious to say the least .
A question for the Welsh posters here: is there any element to which a Scottish leader play badly in Wales?