Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster
I think it is fair to say that Johnson and the rest of the Conservative party do not give a monkeys about Northern Ireland. Why would they as English naitonalists? What the deal will do is re-orient the Northern Ireland economy to the south and to the EU. That will speed up reunificaiotn and probably make it a little less painful than it would have been.
Amongst other things, this will now also be the election of Sir Henry Bellingham's End...
In a letter to party members Sir Henry, who is 64, says that he had "agonised" over the decision but always wanted to depart gracefully before people started saying "poor Henry he is not quite as active or dynamic as he used to be"....
Is it possible for him to be less active and dynamic than he used to be?
Mr. NorthWales, it's daft someone not even standing (Sturgeon) wants to be there, but the SNP is significantly larger as a Parliamentary party than the Lib Dems, so they have quite a good case if a debate has more than just the big two.
Ah I see. They don't know what's good for them. Gotit.
I would not put it like that. That sounds patronizing and what I feel isn't.
I would more put it like this -
If you offer people what you think they should be wanting but it turns out that they want something else, something which you think they shouldn't want, the response should be to offer them what you think they should want a bit harder, rather than to change your offer and pretend that you now agree that what you actually think they shouldn't want is not only what they do want but what they are right to want.
It's called integrity.
Patronising, paternalist rubbish. Sozza as you are usually quite reasoned an' all but what you have written explains why your lot will be out of power for so long. Not listening to the electorate but telling them a bit harder what is good for them.
From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.
From the Northern Ireland perspective, Boris's deal is a disaster
I think it is fair to say that Johnson and the rest of the Conservative party do not give a monkeys about Northern Ireland. Why would they as English naitonalists? What the deal will do is re-orient the Northern Ireland economy to the south and to the EU. That will speed up reunificaiotn and probably make it a little less painful than it would have been.
Once again, I agree. If Boris wins a majority, I wonder how long it will be until they realise that jettisoning Scotland is the way to go...
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.
Furthermore of them.
I agree your (or my) opinion don’t matter a whole lot. If I was confident there would be a Democratic choice I’d be fairly relaxed about it, but it’s hard to see the mechanism for that choice when we are having a general election where the party in favour of this process waves away any discussion of specifics, and will almost certainly claim it has the ‘will of the people’ on its side when implementing changes in future.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.
Nick Fucking Timothy who lost the Tory majority against Jeremy Corbyn? FFS Meriden aren't so much as scraping the barrel as much as puking in a barrel then scraping it.
From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
It’s starting to look like a trend - a number of early polls showing Lab up and Lib down by similar amounts.
BXP holding steady - perhaps not unsurprising as the poll also shows 60% of Welsh voters citing Brexit as the most important issue in this election - ahead of England.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
If the NHS is off the table we will never have a trade deal with the USA - that golden calf is just about the only reason a President could override Congress.
And Congress isn't happy about Northern Ireland and the GFA - that come up out of the blue when in a Pizza Restaurant in DC last Tuesday afternoon.
The Northern Ireland / GFA thing surfaced quite some time ago in the US.
By 53% to 26% Brits say Jo Swinson should be invited to take part in the live TV debate happening between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Tory gains in Wales could offset their losses in Scotland, meaning they'd only need a net gain of 10 seats or so in England to get their majority. Sounds achievable when you look at it like that.
From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.
Are those figures right
They are the seat changes, I think they are right.
Tory gains in Wales could offset their losses in Scotland, meaning they'd only need a net gain of 10 seats or so in England to get their majority. Sounds achievable when you look at it like that.
Voter breakdowns on whether Jo Swinson should be invited to the TV debate between the PM and Jeremy Corbyn: Con voters: 43% should / 40% shouldn't Labour voters: 63% should / 18% shouldn't Lib Dem voters: 87% should / 6% shouldn't https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker
I imagine Wales will be the strongest region for BXP. It's those consituencies in the South where they will poll sub 10% that could be enough to scupper Tory hopes of a majority.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.
Furthermore of them.
I future.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
From the Welsh poll conducted Thursday to today Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.
Are those figures right
They are the seat changes, I think they are right.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.
They'll win them because of Corbyn, but the challenge will be keeping them. Especially now that we are set to No Deal in December 2020.
Don't think Johnson would No Deal myself. I'll be laying that again if we get another round of 'cliff edge' drama.
But on Corbyn, assuming for the sake of argument that he IS disliked by the 'working class', why do you think that is?
Because the working classes generally like and feel proud of Britain, its culture and its traditions, something that is literal anathema to Corbynite socialists?
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).
Well there's no inherent reason that the dividing line in politics should be between middle class and working class, nor which the upper class should side with if class IS the distinction between the two. At other times in history the dividing line politically has been religious, or which of two candidates for the throne you supported, or urban/rural. And of course in the USA politics no longer follows socio-economic divides.
If people no longer feel a party represents them, they will looks elsewhere.
That's true. No party or politician has a divine right to anybody's vote. I just get a bit frustrated sometimes with the idea of people getting conned and exploited. The key thing is to blame the conners not the connees. You retain your moral high ground then.
Some of the Corbyn 'outrider' accounts were claiming it was a fake account, but a number of Jewish journalists had named a member of a Midlands CLP as being behind the account.
Very easy to spoof. Just need a Palestine flag and some sort or pro Liverpool fc blurb and it becomes hard to tell who is real and who is not.
He can’t make his mind up whether he’s Joe Wood or Joe Woods. I’m reserving judgment.
That seems to suggest the BP really hurting the Tory vote . I think it’s crucial for the Lib Dems that the BP stand , especially in Tory v Lib Dem marginals .
Farage is well aware aware of the same - the more seats he costs the Tories the more he has power, in his mind.
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
It gives NI the choice of being stuffed in UK trade or stuffed in ROI trade & politics. Basically it has to pick and choose and lose something which is a huge backward step from where it is now.
But what do you care so long as you get your precious Brexit?
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
The point you very strongly made was that when it comes to fundamental human rights - such as the right to vote for those who set your laws - the majority should never be able to deny the minority. It is clear that you have now pulled back from that position and I welcome it. We are now on the same side, Philip!
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.
Furthermore of them.
I future.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.
I am delighted Johnson betrayed the DUP and gave the Irish what they wanted. I think a No Deal that inflicted significant economic harm on Ireland would have done immense damage to the UK's long-term reputation. It's important that the consequences of Brexit are felt as much as possible in the UK and as little as possible elsewhere. Johnson's deal ensures that when we do crash out of the EU's orbit next December it is us that suffers by far the most harm.
And if the Northern Irish don't like the arrangements and want to move to the UK's arrangements instead then they can decide that democratically and the Irish and EU and the USA etc have nothing they can say about that since it will be democracy in action and they will have agreed to giving Stormont the choice.
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
Johnson's Deal is not going to help the NI economy either.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.
They could win a set with the right candidate, someone who was working class & from the Valleys community & reasonably well-known. Perhaps even ex-Labour, or Labour maverick.
Those seats have previous form in voting for ex-Labour independents (e.g., SO Davies in Merthyr Tydfil or Peter Law/Dai Davies in Blaenau Gwent).
Fortunately, TBP -- like the LibDems -- believe the way to win seats in Wales is to look around London or South East England and see if they can identify the biggest fool who knows nothing about Wales and ask him to stand.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).
Thanks Alastair. Noted! Actually I agree that Wales is their best chance but I can't for the life of me see which actual seat it could be. Would need to be some kind of bizarre five-way split. As I say, not happening.
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.
The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
That depends on where the LDs are losing their votes to. If it is 2017 Labour voters in 2017 Labour seats primarily going back to Labour then it will make very little difference to the LDs in their Tory target seats.
Nick Fucking Timothy who lost the Tory majority against Jeremy Corbyn? FFS Meriden aren't so much as scraping the barrel as much as puking in a barrel then scraping it.
Unfair on the other two who look to be perfectly reasonable candidates. You will of course have a point if Timothy is chosen...
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.
Stupid unforced error by Bozzajob – really no need to make that call whatsoever.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?
The seats where the LEAVE did best are absolutely rock solid Labour. Would BXP really be able to take those seats.
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Absolutely no chance of Brexit Party winning a seat in Wales or anywhere else. Sorry - not happening.
If you believe that, then I commend the Betfair market where you can bet on the Brexit party getting under 0.5 seats - the odds are currently 2.32 (11/8).
Thanks Alastair. Noted! Actually I agree that Wales is their best chance but I can't for the life of me see which actual seat it could be. Would need to be some kind of bizarre five-way split. As I say, not happening.
It doesn't need to be a bizarre five way split if the Brexit party support is reasonably concentrated. 30% in a constituency would be enough in a three and a bit way split (see Thurrock in 2015 for the kind of thing I have in mind). Maybe Llanelli: the 2015 result is suggestive.
There are very few Labour v Lib Dem marginals. The main battle is Tory v Lib Dem , all Labour voters there need to hold their nose and vote for the latter .
Wales remains the Brexit party's best hope of winning seats in my view. If that 15% is concentrated in specific areas, and it might well be, they could nick a seat or two.
Seems bonkers to stand in all of them, then, surely?
The seats where the LEAVE did best are absolutely rock solid Labour. Would BXP really be able to take those seats.
Torfaen looks the likeliest candidate for BXP (But unlikely) GAIN to me. I don't think they'll get it but I reckon they'll be closest (25 pts behind Labour maybe) there.
There are very few Labour v Lib Dem marginals. The main battle is Tory v Lib Dem , all Labour voters there need to hold their nose and vote for the latter .
The issue is that Labour were in 2nd place in a lot of these seats in 2017.
Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.
The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.
Haven't the Tories gone up by more in more polls?
Probably. They are clearly going to finish with most MPs. But if Johnson does not get a majority he is finished. I still expect him to, but he is giving 2017 Labour voters every reason to hold their noses and vote Labour once more. He is lucky that Corbyn seems so determined to put them off.
Patronising, paternalist rubbish. Sozza as you are usually quite reasoned an' all but what you have written explains why your lot will be out of power for so long. Not listening to the electorate but telling them a bit harder what is good for them.
Well I quite genuinely disagree. The old saying that "true political leadership is about shaping public opinion not following it" is one I have always had a lot of time for.
Absolutely. As I have said before I am glad you have come round to this point of view after previously insisting the DUP should have the right to block the majority. I think the Northern Irish will be absolutely delighted to be shielded from Johnson's decision to crash the GB economy.
I always said that I was happy to have NI's arrangements to be different so long as NI voters could determine their future at elections. That is what this deal does, NI voters determine their laws at their own elections like I always said must be the case.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
The point you very strongly made was that when it comes to fundamental human rights - such as the right to vote for those who set your laws - the majority should never be able to deny the minority. It is clear that you have now pulled back from that position and I welcome it. We are now on the same side, Philip!
I said the majority can not take away the rights of the minority.
The majority are not denying the minority their rights here! There are determining their future at an election, which is democratic, but the rights remain. Future elections can choose future paths, that is the difference.
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker
I’m not sure it’s that straightforward, the BP could well do more damage to Labour in Wales than to the Tories .
That is correct. Look at Gower or Vale of Clwyd in 2015 (UKIP stood) or 2017 (no UKIP). There were Tory gains 2015, Tory losses in 2017.
These are (mainly) former Labour voters in TBP in Wales.
Thanks . I think what we’re going to see is a case of big regional differences in how the BP effects the Tories . But as you pointed out with that example some Labour Leavers will simply not vote Tory .
The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.
If the Conservatives finish with a big lead, then seats that swing against them will be offset by seats that swing more strongly in their favour.
Sinn Fein standing down to help Sylvia Hermon is quite startling, and a very good move in terms of getting Northern Irish politics a little more like our normal, sober political system (well...). Seriously, it's great.
If only the mainland parties saw that things are so critical.
The irony for Sinn Fein is that Bozo’s Brexit deal signifies a first small step toward a United Ireland.
Utter rubbish, the only polls in Northern Ireland shpwing majority support for a united Ireland are with a hard border with the Republic of Ireland which the Boris Deal explicitly avoids
Seem to be quite a few Lib Dem, Green and Brexit "voters" who turn tail at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder back to Tory & Labour.
Quite funny really.
It's astounding how quickly it's happened. Who are these people that just blatantly lie to themselves and / or to pollsters? If I said that I would vote for a minor party, then that's exactly what I would do!
Well the campaign has notionally begun, so it's worth taking a casual glance at the early polls – and we begin with a 7pt Tory lead. Labour with plenty of work to do.
But Labour does now have some momentum - and seems to be rising in most polls. Johnson's decision to pander to the Brextrimists once more and to rule extending the transition period may well help to drive more LDs back to the red corner.
Haven't the Tories gone up by more in more polls?
Tories are keeping up with Labour increases so far, therefore maintaining their leads
I guess we must be at cross purposes but I thought it was common ground that regulatory divergence etc environmental standards are off the table?
No it is not common ground. Regulatory alignment is not required in order to avoid Non Tariff Barriers.
Alignment is just one option available to avoid NTBs actually and the principle of mutual recognition instead is a valuable one to work with.
Still challenging I think to move down a specific mutual recognition path which the EU accept to the extent that it doesn’t introduce any barriers, but which doesn’t fetter our ability to lower NTBs with other countries. ( I think this from the IfG is still as current as it was a couple of years ago in terms of the choice we need to make https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/mutual-recognition-can-uk-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it )
Specifically, though, where would we gain economically by doing this?
It doesn't matter where in my opinion, it will be our choice democratically.
Furthermore it also doesn't matter that much if there are a few barriers while we keep as much as possible eliminated with the EU, while simultaneously lowering with other nations. Comparing to similar developed economies to our own the UK is not doing that great within the EU and most global economic development and growth is coming from outside Europe not inside it. That is where the opportunities are and it is up to us to make the most of them.
I agree your (or my) opinion don’t matter a whole lot. If I was confident there would be a Democratic choice I’d be fairly relaxed about it, but it’s hard to see the mechanism for that choice when we are having a general election where the party in favour of this process waves away any discussion of specifics, and will almost certainly claim it has the ‘will of the people’ on its side when implementing changes in future.
Too right too! The government has made certain red lines clear - the NHS is off the table in trade talks etc, but then it needs to get on with the job. If we're not happy with the job they do we can change course in 4 years time. Nothing is forever.
The government made clear there would be no customes border in the Irish Sea. Then it agreed one.
You can't spend months demanding someone is being stubborn and needs to compromise, and then being upset when they do.
The Tories seem to be pulling away from the Lib Dems in recent polls. Fewer seats given up to them means fewer seats needed from Labour for a Maj.
The problem for the Conservatives is the seats which are likely to behave against a simple UNS. These could easily cost another 5-6 seats whilst none are likely to go in the other direction. My expectation is that Guildford and Totnes are very likely to go LD and seats such as Finchley, City of London, South Cambridgeshire and Wimbledon - none of which would go based on UNS - are worth watching.
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.
If the Conservatives finish with a big lead, then seats that swing against them will be offset by seats that swing more strongly in their favour.
But not from the LDs as there are so few which could. So an additional 5-6 seats won by the LDs over and above UNS means 5-6 more seats the Conservatives need to take from Labour.
Close between Laing and Bryant for second but Laing will hope to pick up Harman and Winterton's votes now (Winterton signed her nomination papers) as the only female left in the race
Comments
#LegendaryModesty
https://twitter.com/conhome/status/1191392826564714496?s=21
Labour: 18 (-10)
Conservatives: 17 (+9)
Plaid Cymru: 4
Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)
The seats to change hands would be as follows:
Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnor (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)
Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.
BXP holding steady - perhaps not unsurprising as the poll also shows 60% of Welsh voters citing Brexit as the most important issue in this election - ahead of England.
In practice, I expect Corby will have clawed some of the losses back by early Dec.
Net effect of the 'Remain Alliance', ABSOLUTE ZERO. LibDems booted out of B&R.
Maybe for lib dems
To quote TSE #LegendaryModesty
We could have no Brexit thanks to Nigel. Absolute plonker
Voter breakdowns on whether Jo Swinson should be invited to the TV debate between the PM and Jeremy Corbyn:
Con voters: 43% should / 40% shouldn't
Labour voters: 63% should / 18% shouldn't
Lib Dem voters: 87% should / 6% shouldn't
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic
But on Corbyn, assuming for the sake of argument that he IS disliked by the 'working class', why do you think that is?
He's doing his best in 2019 to stop Brexit, if he does, he deserves a peerage.
May's proposal had no ongoing consent, no elections and no exit mechanism, that is what I objected to. How many times did I make the elections point to you? Now the NI voters are voting on this at their own elections.
But what do you care so long as you get your precious Brexit?
Those seats have previous form in voting for ex-Labour independents (e.g., SO Davies in Merthyr Tydfil or Peter Law/Dai Davies in Blaenau Gwent).
Fortunately, TBP -- like the LibDems -- believe the way to win seats in Wales is to look around London or South East England and see if they can identify the biggest fool who knows nothing about Wales and ask him to stand.
Actually I agree that Wales is their best chance but I can't for the life of me see which actual seat it could be. Would need to be some kind of bizarre five-way split. As I say, not happening.
Quite funny really.
After only a few days, LD and BXP both heading downwards and at a fairly rapid rate.
Con campaign off to a slow start - it's irrelevant that Parliament is still sitting - they should be campaigning as hard as Lab right now.
Only possible difference is that Boris will be a stronger campaigner than May.
But at this early stage it looks to me as if we are likely headed for:
Con 40-44
Lab 36-41
(Slightly wider range for Lab)
These are (mainly) former Labour voters in TBP in Wales.
https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1191402145876205568?s=21
The problem with simplistic application of polling is the very different regional effects and the local impacts, especially of ditched MPs such as Milton.
The majority are not denying the minority their rights here! There are determining their future at an election, which is democratic, but the rights remain. Future elections can choose future paths, that is the difference.
The labour share in many polls is rising but the Tory (comfortable) lead isnt getting any smaller as they keep up with the Labour increases.
Harman 59
Hoyle 244
Laing 122
Winterton 30