politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labo

Mr. Noo, although it's doomed, MacBeth has some great lines.

I especially like "Give me mine armour, I'll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack'd".

Reminds me I need to return to the Complete Works. Only got a couple of comedies left, then it's tragedies, I think.

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

(Completely separately, I would rather see Trump re-elected. Because it should be him who has to deal with the economic consequences of tariffs and reigniting the US debt and consumption bubble.)

Are you not mistaking him for someone who would care?

If someone else takes over, they will be blamed for the economic consequences of Trump's policies. It therefore increases the chance that the problem will be misdiagnosed.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

In the minus column, he's called Buttigieg.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, although it's doomed, MacBeth has some great lines.

I especially like "Give me mine armour, I'll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack'd".

Reminds me I need to return to the Complete Works. Only got a couple of comedies left, then it's tragedies, I think.

The tragedies are where it's at, imo. All the best lines.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Byronic said:

Aha!

Thanks for all the intriguing answers. I am glad the maths is fiendish, as that excuses my inability to work it out. Though I gave it a go.

FWIW - and this is the woowoo, nonsensical subjective bit, so feel free to ignore, the repeated card was a major Arcana card with remarkable relevance to my dilemma.

Just getting it once, and upright (also significant), was enough to make me and my partner go Ooooh, that's the important card.

We then did another spread, and drew the card, and there it was again. Wow. Quite weird.

After the third draw, finding our card AGAIN in the spread, we looked at each other in bewilderment, and not a little agitation.

We then laid the spread again, and there it was again. I nearly hurled the haunted pack out of the window, and into the rain.

I think psychics and tarot cards should be avoided, because even if you believe they read something from you, what they read is surely that you have enough anxiety about your future to consult tarot cards and psychics for reassurance. So the outcome you get from them will never be good.

There's a great novel about psychics that's well worth a read: Attack of the Unsinkable Rubber Ducks

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, although it's doomed, MacBeth has some great lines.

I especially like "Give me mine armour, I'll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack'd".

Reminds me I need to return to the Complete Works. Only got a couple of comedies left, then it's tragedies, I think.

I have to warn you, Morris, that the tragedies don't work out that well.

rcs1000 said:

(Completely separately, I would rather see Trump re-elected. Because it should be him who has to deal with the economic consequences of tariffs and reigniting the US debt and consumption bubble.)

As a matter of interest, do you apply the same logic to Boris and the consequences of Brexit?

basicbridge said:

Alistair said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

The idea that Nats are over represented in media coverage of Scotland is hilarious.

The London media mistake the SNP for "Scotland"and hang on their every word.

The local media know better.

And yet if the people I am working with in Aberdeen are anything to go by there has been a massive increase in support for the SNP. Whatever idiocy they might have been doing is more than offset by the whole Remain movement which has clearly also fed into the Independence movement. As a strong Leave supporter I wish it were not so but the SNP do have a ready pool of new support because of Brexit.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, although it's doomed, MacBeth has some great lines.

I especially like "Give me mine armour, I'll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack'd".

Reminds me I need to return to the Complete Works. Only got a couple of comedies left, then it's tragedies, I think.

Who among political observers needs fictitious tragedies at this moment?

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

viewcode said:

@Byronic FPT

Question: Four draws, from a pack of 78 cards, what is the probability that the same card
* => p = 0.112400757

Draw 3:
* as draw 2
* so p = 0.112400757

Draw is right or wrong. Please ask other people to check it. If you want me to do a better calculation, please pay me.

lol. thanks very much!



I have now received the Fool Card, Upright, in four draw of 3 cards in sequence.

In my maths, which I believe is probably wrong, the chances of this happening are 1 in 140,608, or 0.00000711197%

After the firsterefore the final percentage is somewhere not too far above 0.002%, or about one in 48000.

I don't believe that the "right way" up bit will be truly random, as the tarot reader will presumably follow the same process every time for returning cards to the deck and shuffling them.

Your analysis of the second draw is spot on - I missed that there were more opportunities to get a same card.

If the cards are simply collected off the table and added to the pack, held the same way around, then cards are never going to get turned round in the first place.

After the first deal, we are only interested in the three cards on the table - how the rest of the pack is held doesn’t matter.

Either they are picked up the same way - in which case they won’t change direction - or their orientation is somehow randomised (by mixing them about) - in which case the one in eight is the best estimate of getting four deals with the same orientation.

Every shuffle was notably thorough. It is part of the Tarot reading process. You meditate on your question as you shuffle.

So you do a normal shuffle, then you divide the pack into maybe six piles, turning each pile around (to shuffle orientation as well as sequence). Then you shuffle again, then split and revolve, then shuffle again, then a final split. Etc.

It takes about ten minutes.

Of course the cards could be sticky or something, but that's still a lot of shuffling and spinning. It's surely quite close to proper randomising.

You should accept that it is your destiny. Probability = 1.

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Byronic said:

Aha!

Thanks for all the intriguing answers. I am glad the maths is fiendish, as that excuses my inability to work it out. Though I gave it a go.

FWIW - and this is the woowoo, nonsensical subjective bit, so feel free to ignore, the repeated card was a major Arcana card with remarkable relevance to my dilemma.

Just getting it once, and upright (also significant), was enough to make me and my partner go Ooooh, that's the important card.

We then did another spread, and drew the card, and there it was again. Wow. Quite weird.

After the third draw, finding our card AGAIN in the spread, we looked at each other in bewilderment, and not a little agitation.

We then laid the spread again, and there it was again. I nearly hurled the haunted pack out of the window, and into the rain.

I think psychics and tarot cards should be avoided, because even if you believe they read something from you, what they read is surely that you have enough anxiety about your future to consult tarot cards and psychics for reassurance. So the outcome you get from them will never be good.

There's a great novel about psychics that's well worth a read: Attack of the Unsinkable Rubber Ducks

The late Princess of Wales was obsessed with consulting psychics.

wasn't Charles supposed to have tried to contact his grandmother>?

basicbridge said:

Alistair said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

The idea that Nats are over represented in media coverage of Scotland is hilarious.

The London media mistake the SNP for "Scotland"and hang on their every word.

The local media know better.

That's why famously Scottish QT audiences are stuffed full of ordinary members of the public who just happen to be SNP MSPs and Councillors while Ruth Davidson never got any air time without being robustly challenged.

Oh... Wait...

SquareRoot said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Byronic said:

Aha!

Thanks for all the intriguing answers. I am glad the maths is fiendish, as that excuses my inability to work it out. Though I gave it a go.

FWIW - and this is the woowoo, nonsensical subjective bit, so feel free to ignore, the repeated card was a major Arcana card with remarkable relevance to my dilemma.

Just getting it once, and upright (also significant), was enough to make me and my partner go Ooooh, that's the important card.

We then did another spread, and drew the card, and there it was again. Wow. Quite weird.

After the third draw, finding our card AGAIN in the spread, we looked at each other in bewilderment, and not a little agitation.

We then laid the spread again, and there it was again. I nearly hurled the haunted pack out of the window, and into the rain.

I think psychics and tarot cards should be avoided, because even if you believe they read something from you, what they read is surely that you have enough anxiety about your future to consult tarot cards and psychics for reassurance. So the outcome you get from them will never be good.

There's a great novel about psychics that's well worth a read: Attack of the Unsinkable Rubber Ducks

The late Princess of Wales was obsessed with consulting psychics.

wasn't Charles supposed to have tried to contact his grandmother>?

By ringing Clarence House?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

basicbridge said:

Alistair said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

The idea that Nats are over represented in media coverage of Scotland is hilarious.

The London media mistake the SNP for "Scotland"and hang on their every word.

The local media know better.

And yet if the people I am working with in Aberdeen are anything to go by there has been a massive increase in support for the SNP. Whatever idiocy they might have been doing is more than offset by the whole Remain movement which has clearly also fed into the Independence movement. As a strong Leave supporter I wish it were not so but the SNP do have a ready pool of new support because of Brexit.

I think they've become more emboldened and vocal (if that were possible). I'm not sure how many new converts they have actually made - not that I'm denying the possibility.

It will be depressing if we lose Scotland post-Brexit and Rejoin is dead on arrival. Especially when we could have had a softer Brexit if Remainers had just pushed for that instead of an referendum rerun.

Noo said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, although it's doomed, MacBeth has some great lines.

I especially like "Give me mine armour, I'll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack'd".

Reminds me I need to return to the Complete Works. Only got a couple of comedies left, then it's tragedies, I think.

Who among political observers needs fictitious tragedies at this moment?

It does rather feel like we are in two separate parts of two tragic arcz with Trump and Boris. Trump atop the castle watching suspiciously as Birnam Wood appears to be advancing towards Dunsinane. Meanwhile, Boris is in the Hamlet-feigning-madness stage.
That's probably better news for the Dems than the opposition in the UK, since Macbeth gets him comeuppance relatively cleanly, in Hamlet basically everyone ends up dead. Or perhaps Jo Swinson is Fortinbras?

The kingmaker and sole surviving major character was Horatio. If we're looking for people with brief walk-on parts and distant connections to events who went mental before coming back heroes then the correct parallel is Nigel Dodds.

I really hope that isn't a parallel that comes to pass...

Having just come back from sun down drinks I couldn’t stop laughing at the two most arch Brexiteers out here in Spain starting to panic about their future when we leave, they couldn’t even understand that it was their fault. I a diehard remainer had to pacify them by saying they will be long gone by the time we leave transition.

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, I like Merchant of Venice for that too. Also Taming of the Shrew (come hither, crack-hemp/away, you three-inch fool), which has otherwise aged rather poorly.

But I am especially looking forward to Hamlet. Years ago I was a regular player on the now sadly defunct Fatal Dimensions MUD, and someone had created an area there called All The World's A Stage, with a nice little Hamlet section. It'd be good to finally read it.

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

But you don't even seem to know what my "lot" even is.
Unless you mean you're bored of people who have a higher IQ than a yoghurt.

Well that would exclude Ian Blackford then.

I quite agree. As I've said before, the man is an oaf. Much like you.

The only name-calling (and often foul-mouthed) oaf on here is you, my friend.

[shrugs]

Byronic said:

Aha!

Thanks for all the intriguing answers. I am glad the maths is fiendish, as that excuses my inability to work it out. Though I gave it a go.

FWIW - and this is the woowoo, nonsensical subjective bit, so feel free to ignore, the repeated card was a major Arcana card with remarkable relevance to my dilemma.

Just getting it once, and upright (also significant), was enough to make me and my partner go Ooooh, that's the important card.

We then did another spread, and drew the card, and there it was again. Wow. Quite weird.

After the third draw, finding our card AGAIN in the spread, we looked at each other in bewilderment, and not a little agitation.

We then laid the spread again, and there it was again. I nearly hurled the haunted pack out of the window.

What on earth are you on about?

PB has been the unfortunate host of many mad posts, but an attempt to reinvigorate Tarot readings into the mainstream is quite special.

Are you planning an Astrology seminar soon? I hope I'll get front seats at the bone-shaking too when that's announced.

Gabs2 said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, I like Merchant of Venice for that too. Also Taming of the Shrew (come hither, crack-hemp/away, you three-inch fool), which has otherwise aged rather poorly.

But I am especially looking forward to Hamlet. Years ago I was a regular player on the now sadly defunct Fatal Dimensions MUD, and someone had created an area there called All The World's A Stage, with a nice little Hamlet section. It'd be good to finally read it.

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

But you don't even seem to know what my "lot" even is.
Unless you mean you're bored of people who have a higher IQ than a yoghurt.

Well that would exclude Ian Blackford then.

I quite agree. As I've said before, the man is an oaf. Much like you.

The only name-calling (and often foul-mouthed) oaf on here is you, my friend.

Neither of you are coming across well out of this exchange.

[shrugs]

Barnesian said:

Byronic said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

viewcode said:

@Byronic FPT

Question: Four draws, from a pack of 78 cards, what is the probability that the same card
* => p = 0.112400757

Draw 3:
* as draw 2
* so p = 0.112400757

Draw is right or wrong. Please ask other people to check it. If you want me to do a better calculation, please pay me.

lol. thanks very much!



I have now received the Fool Card, Upright, in four draw of 3 cards in sequence.

In my maths, which I believe is probably wrong, the chances of this happening are 1 in 140,608, or 0.00000711197%

After the firsterefore the final percentage is somewhere not too far above 0.002%, or about one in 48000.

I don't belied.

If the cards are simply collected off the table and added to the pack, held the same way around, then cards are never going to get turned round in the first place.

After the first deal, we are only interested in the three cards on the table - how the rest of the pack is held doesn’t matter.

Either they are picked up the same way - in which case they won’t change direction - or their orientation is somehow randomised (by mixing them about) - in which case the one in eight is the best estimate of getting four deals with the same orientation.

Every shuffle was notably thorough. It is part of the Tarot reading process. You meditate on your question as you shuffle.

So you do a normal shuffle, then you divide the pack into maybe six piles, turning each pile around (to shuffle orientation as well as sequence). Then you shuffle again, then split and revolve, then shuffle again, then a final split. Etc.

It takes about ten minutes.

Of course the cards could be sticky or something, but that's still a lot of shuffling and spinning. It's surely quite close to proper randomising.

You should accept that it is your destiny. Probability = 1.

And of course we are looking here at probability after the event. There were millions of ways all those cards could have come out, and whichever one played out had the same infinitesimal chance, in advance. Certain outcomes only seem surprisingly unlikely because humans are good at spotting patterns.

It is rather like when people speculate on the supposedly tiny chance of intelligent life having evolved to our current point without any direction. It doesn’t matter how small the chance, because in all the other scenarios there is no-one to ask the question. Once it has happened, the probability equals 100%.

And thats before you start thinking about all the possible locations and points in time.

Looks like poor refereeing to me at Everton. Referees shouldn't change card because of an outcome

Mr. Twelve, unlikely but not impossible.

I forget what the majority is now, in 2015 it was about a thousand.

The thing is, this is quite an EU-sceptic sort of seat. In 2015 I think UKIP got several thousand votes. I think that makes it unlikely that Jenkyns will lose her seat.

Unsure if I put it on PB or my blog, but both today's football tips came off (yesterday was mixed and red overall). Everton drew and Leicester won.

Stereotomy said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

He's utterly unfit to be president, and fortunately has no chance of ever being elected.

Make a comment fine but follow it up with a justification please otherwise it’s meaningless.

Stereotomy said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

He's utterly unfit to be president, and fortunately has no chance of ever being elected.

Who ?

Richard_Tyndall said:

basicbridge said:

Alistair said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

The idea that Nats are over represented in media coverage of Scotland is hilarious.

The London media mistake the SNP for "Scotland"and hang on their every word.

The local media know better.

And yet if the people I am working with in Aberdeen are anything to go by there has been a massive increase in support for the SNP. Whatever idiocy they might have been doing is more than offset by the whole Remain movement which has clearly also fed into the Independence movement. As a strong Leave supporter I wish it were not so but the SNP do have a ready pool of new support because of Brexit.

The SNP are still poling below pre Brexit 2015 levels

Stereotomy said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

He's utterly unfit to be president, and fortunately has no chance of ever being elected.

Plus if Bobby Kennedy's grandson, Joe P Kennedy III, wins the Massachussets Senate race next year as polls indicate he will be in a good place for 2024 himself

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-kennedy-dynasty-ed-markey-senate-race-2020-1460221

https://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/niallodowd/poll-kennedy-markey-senate-race-shocker

Theuniondivvie said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

You ok, hun?
Has something happened today in the NE to get you all steamed up?

LOL, his hero has thrown in the towel.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1191020505685475329

No surprise and given how far the Spanish have gone to block a Catalan independence vote Boris has plenty of leeway to block any indyref2 while he is PM

Oh yes, you'll be there HY, dragging old ladies out of the polling place before they can cast their ballot. Standing up for democracy, do you call it?

ydoethur said:

Why the hell are people referring to Carter as 'young?' He was well over fifty! Admittedly that's younger than any Republican president since the war, but it's still five years older than Obama and not ridiculously far off Lyndon B. Johnson.

Is 52 "well over 50"?

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

Why the hell are people referring to Carter as 'young?' He was well over fifty! Admittedly that's younger than any Republican president since the war, but it's still five years older than Obama and not ridiculously far off Lyndon B. Johnson.

Is 52 "well over 50"?

Old as Methuselah

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

But you don't even seem to know what my "lot" even is.
Unless you mean you're bored of people who have a higher IQ than a yoghurt.

A belter

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

What is more Dems need 90%+ of the black vote to win the WH, so far Boot edge edge is winning 2% in some polls and * in others.

I think this is the same logic as saying "Evangelicals will never vote for a serial adulterer who's paid for mistresses to have abortions".

Once Buttigieg and Obama are up on stage together, those doubts will fade.

If there's one thing we've learned in the last few years, people vote according to whether they think someone will do something for them.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1191020505685475329

No surprise and given how far the Spanish have gone to block a Catalan independence vote Boris has plenty of leeway to block any indyref2 while he is PM

What rubbish you spout , the two are completely different.

As long as it upsets the Nats, the reason and explanation are irrelevant. Seeing Ms Sturgeon on TV was a LOL experience, someone incapable of speaking the truth (but common to most other politicians whether elected or not...

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1191020505685475329

No surprise and given how far the Spanish have gone to block a Catalan independence vote Boris has plenty of leeway to block any indyref2 while he is PM

Oh yes, you'll be there HY, dragging old ladies out of the polling place before they can cast their ballot. Standing up for democracy, do you call it?

I expect most old ladies will still be happy with the Union but yes no authorised second Scottish independence referendum will be allowed by Boris for as long as he is PM as he confirmed today, even if he does not go as far as the Spanish and arrest Nicola Sturgeon

Are the troops massing on the border yet to prevent the vote

Stereotomy said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

He's utterly unfit to be president, and fortunately has no chance of ever being elected.

Buttigieg?

rcs1000 said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

Buttigieg doesn't bring anything to Warren's ticket. She needs a conservative white heterosexual man from a swing state...

Or Sherrod Brown.

I suspect Sherrod Brown is needed more in the Senate than on the ticket. Buttigieg is a young polite church-going Midwesterner from the moderate wing of the party. He is the perfect person to reassure upper middle income suburbanites scared by Warren's radicalism.

Benefits freeze to end in 2020

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, I like Merchant of Venice for that too. Also Taming of the Shrew (come hither, crack-hemp/away, you three-inch fool), which has otherwise aged rather poorly.

But I am especially looking forward to Hamlet. Years ago I was a regular player on the now sadly defunct Fatal Dimensions MUD, and someone had created an area there called All The World's A Stage, with a nice little Hamlet section. It'd be good to finally read it.

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

But you don't even seem to know what my "lot" even is.
Unless you mean you're bored of people who have a higher IQ than a yoghurt.

Well that would exclude Ian Blackford then.

I quite agree. As I've said before, the man is an oaf. Much like you.

And in any case, hes more an idiot than an oaf. Like a majority of SNP Moray councillors....

Time to go have a lie down in a darkened room, compose yourself.

blueblue said:

What shape do we think the Tory campaign is going to take? I kept waiting for it to start last time and the only bits of news that broke through were the terrible missteps. When will we be able to form an impression about whether or not things will be different this time?

More schools, hospitals and police. I expect there'll be lots of occasions when some left wing activists start heckling Johnson and that along with selacious Arcuri rumours/allegations will be the extent of the negative publicity.

Gabs2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

Buttigieg doesn't bring anything to Warren's ticket. She needs a conservative white heterosexual man from a swing state...

Or Sherrod Brown.

I suspect Sherrod Brown is needed more in the Senate than on the ticket. Buttigieg is a young polite church-going Midwesterner from the moderate wing of the party. He is the perfect person to reassure upper middle income suburbanites scared by Warren's radicalism.

The other route she could go is Cory Booker, who would energize the black vote and is also well liked in the suburbs. Another option is Andrew Gillum, who helps with Florida, but isn't as well known as Booker.

malcolmg said:

Noo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Noo, I like Merchant of Venice for that too. Also Taming of the Shrew (come hither, crack-hemp/away, you three-inch fool), which has otherwise aged rather poorly.

But I am especially looking forward to Hamlet. Years ago I was a regular player on the now sadly defunct Fatal Dimensions MUD, and someone had created an area there called All The World's A Stage, with a nice little Hamlet section. It'd be good to finally read it.

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

Noo said:

basicbridge said:

I live here and i can tell, however much malcolmg likes to pretend otherwise, the SNP are nowadays hated by many people in the NE and are going to get panned in Dec. Their incompetence in government, their corruption, their utter uselessness with regard to the whisky and fishing industries will all play against them.

Useless, lazy english journalists never come up here and ask people what WE actually think.

They are probably afraid they'll run into someone like you.

When all they do is ask shouty, dreary, entitled middle class nats like you.

Christ, are we bored with you lot up here.

Nat? Errr ok, plank.

Numpty.

As i say, Christ are we bored with you lot.

But you don't even seem to know what my "lot" even is.
Unless you mean you're bored of people who have a higher IQ than a yoghurt.

Well that would exclude Ian Blackford then.

I quite agree. As I've said before, the man is an oaf. Much like you.

That is really hard on Ian Blackford.

You're right. I'll roll it back to "I'm not a fan of Blackford but he's not as bad as plank".

Gabs2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

Buttigieg doesn't bring anything to Warren's ticket. She needs a conservative white heterosexual man from a swing state...

Or Sherrod Brown.

I suspect Sherrod Brown is needed more in the Senate than on the ticket. Buttigieg is a young polite church-going Midwesterner from the moderate wing of the party. He is the perfect person to reassure upper middle income suburbanites scared by Warren's radicalism.

You make a persuasive case.

logical_song said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Byronic said:

Aha!

Thanks for all the intriguing answers. I am glad the maths is fiendish, as that excuses my inability to work it out. Though I gave it a go.

FWIW - and this is the woowoo, nonsensical subjective bit, so feel free to ignore, the repeated card was a major Arcana card with remarkable relevance to my dilemma.

Just getting it once, and upright (also significant), was enough to make me and my partner go Ooooh, that's the important card.

We then did another spread, and drew the card, and there it was again. Wow. Quite weird.

After the third draw, finding our card AGAIN in the spread, we looked at each other in bewilderment, and not a little agitation.

We then laid the spread again, and there it was again. I nearly hurled the haunted pack out of the window, and into the rain.

I think psychics and tarot cards should be avoided, because even if you believe they read something from you, what they read is surely that you have enough anxiety about your future to consult tarot cards and psychics for reassurance. So the outcome you get from them will never be good.

There's a great novel about psychics that's well worth a read: Attack of the Unsinkable Rubber Ducks

The late Princess of Wales was obsessed with consulting psychics.

Well I didn't see that coming.
Reagan was too, apparently. https://www.liveabout.com/presidents-and-the-paranormal-reagan-2596719

Obligatory Ken L. 'You know who else was obsessed with consulting psychics?' line.

rcs1000 said:

Gabs2 said:

nunu2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Pastor in a Gospel Megachurch in Louisiana with a largely African American congregation tweets that Democrats should not vote for Buttigieg as he is in a gay marriage

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/03/megachurch-pastor-democrats-reject-pete-buttigieg-not-time-gay-president/

https://twitter.com/BishopPMorton/status/1190599704876322816?s=20

The amusing bit, of course, is that Buttigieg is geniunely a Christian, unlike the current incumbent of the White House, and I suspect a personally moral man. Buttigieg has also served his country in Afghanistan, which he did by choice, not by the draft.

The Democrats win when the have young, articulate (perhaps even inexperienced) candidates: Obama, Clinton, JFK, even Carter in 76.

They win when they have candidates who are blank slates onto which voters can project their own hopes.

I think it's clear who that candidate is.

Now, he win and he might not. But there's probably quite a strong intersection between those people who wouldn't vote for a black candidate and those who wouldn't vote for a gay one.

Is there?

A lot of black Americans wouldn't vote for a gay man, but ofcourse would vote for a black one.

The Dems should have a Warren-Buttigieg ticket. Get Buttigieg nationally known as VP, and have him setup for whichever post-Trump headbanger the Republicans put forward in 2028. Generational change will have helped the homophobia issue by that point.

Buttigieg doesn't bring anything to Warren's ticket. She needs a conservative white heterosexual man from a swing state...

Or Sherrod Brown.

My boy Shezzod Browwwwwwwwwwwwwwwn.

Some people call us the Nazi party...

https://twitter.com/graemedemianyk/status/1191065765769859072?s=21