politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot
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Well, it should see them winning Blackpool...AndyJS said:
Very very depressing news. Back to the dark ages.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
Government ban fracking
Those ongoing earthquakes are the problem. They stopped fracking for a while to try and figure it out, but they resumed when fracking did.0 -
At least we'll know where to go if we fancy a bit of euthanasia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctorFoxy said:
What did I say that was disrespectful?Big_G_NorthWales said:
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of societyFoxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.IanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
I like it on both counts. It will help defeat the Tories, and if by some mischance we fail it will make me £6000/year which I can give to Labour to help us win the next oneBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.
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Not an obvious priority for Britain, though.1 -
I see the new Corbyinista candidate for Coventry South and best mate of dodgy anti Semite NUS dictator Malia Bouattia has a rather chequered social media history regarding Zionism and anti Semitic views, these people think by deleting their old tweets no one will catch on to them. I'm sure the press will though. Hopefully the constituents will see she is not fit to lace Jim Cunningham's boots0
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I see no evidence that the current 40% tax level dampens aspiration one iota.Big_G_NorthWales said:
One word Ben - aspirationBenpointer said:
Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are mostly the middle class - they are not the richBenpointer said:
But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excellent news if he confirms itBenpointer said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-thresholdBig_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of taxThe_Taxman said:
I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promisingThe_Taxman said:I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut...
It will not be for the rich
By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)0 -
In all fairness, even the mildest of comments gets a fucking angry response from you, so you are hardly a reliable yardstick.ReggieCide said:
I agree your last para. I do not agree your first. Where I come from (Tottenham) calling someone geriatric no matter the accuracy as you would have it, would provoke a fucking angry response.Foxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.IanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.0 -
LOLrottenborough said:
somebody dreaming that whingy would say anything relevant 0 -
It is often used in that context, but not exclusively.Ishmael_Z said:
No it isn't, it is relating to the medical treatment of old people - iatros, doctor. Your misuse of the term implies that the old are by definition ill.Foxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.IanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
It is also a simple matter of fact that 50% or more of the over 65 population have at least one chronic health condition.
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/31/5/557/537079
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Had a gf who was the spit image of Jenny Agutter in her American Werewolf look.Foxy said:
I am rather a Jenny Agguter fan, being from the same generation.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who knows, Foxy might be a big fan of Logan's Run...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctorFoxy said:
What did I say that was disrespectful?Big_G_NorthWales said:
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of societyFoxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramidIanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
The point of the film though, is that a world of only the young is a dystopia.
Happy days.....
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He's absolutely right.Big_G_NorthWales said:Matthew Goodwin
This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...
"I will definitely vote for my party"
Conservatives 71%
Labour 60%
#Brexit Party 55%
Lib Dems 31% <------
"I may change my mind"
Conservative 7%
Labour 16%
Brexit Party 19%
Lib Dem 29% <--------
#GE2019
YouGov data</p>
But it's also worth remembering that LDs *always* have the lowest level of ingrained support. That's why they could fall from 25% to 8% in five years.
It's also worth remembering that if you ask people "would you consider voting LD?" then you get - or used to before the coalition - a pretty high number too. This means the LDs have the lowest floor, but also quite a high ceiling.0 -
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.0 -
Age is theFoxy said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Foxy said:
Strange move,
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
What did I say that was disrespectful?
The whole tone was derogatory to old people - the term costa geriatrica is offensive implying that the old are infirm mentally or physically [also not true for manuy of us].
This is what you wrote:
"Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet."
If you do not think that is disrespectful then you need help/.0 -
That wasn't your motivationFoxy said:
I have posted that tweet just twice. It is an important item of information for political punters doing their tactical voting sums.ReggieCide said:
Not if you keep on doing it. That's boring and repetitive, even for a LibDemFoxy said:
Pointing out how willing supporters of one party are willing to vote for another is highly relevant on a website about political betting, particularly at election time.ReggieCide said:
How often are you going to post this?Foxy said:
That is where this graph matters.IanB2 said:Jonathan said:
Lib Dems less tribal?Big_G_NorthWales said:Matthew Goodwin
This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...
"I will definitely vote for my party"
Conservatives 71%
Labour 60%
#Brexit Party 55%
Lib Dems 31% <------
"I may change my mind"
Conservative 7%
Labour 16%
Brexit Party 19%
Lib Dem 29% <--------
#GE2019
YouGov data</p>
LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=190 -
Ah. Not quite unfounded, then...Sunil_Prasannan said:
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I wasn't dreaming anything. Just highlighting the scared boys meme, which could run.malcolmg said:0 -
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.felix said:
Age is theFoxy said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Foxy said:
Strange move,
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
What did I say that was disrespectful?
The whole tone was derogatory to old people - the term costa geriatrica is offensive implying that the old are infirm mentally or physically [also not true for manuy of us].
This is what you wrote:
"Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet."
If you do not think that is disrespectful then you need help/.
+10 -
Is she looking towards the sunlit uplands?rottenborough said:0 -
Clearly you have never read my posts. I have often been in isolation on this site speaking against euthanasia, and have consistently done so.ReggieCide said:
At least we'll know where to go if we fancy a bit of euthanasia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctorFoxy said:
What did I say that was disrespectful?Big_G_NorthWales said:
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of societyFoxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issueFoxy said:
The age pyramidIanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
0 -
No they are just going to look like our two candidates for PM.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.
Swinson trying to shoe-horn herself into that just looks ridiculous.0 -
My mother explained to me that the reason people voted for Tory tax cuts, even though they did not earn enough to personally benefit from them, was that they believed that one day they would be earning enough to benefit from them, and they didn't want to be paying tax on their earnings then. This is the aspiration that is referred to.Benpointer said:
I see no evidence that the current 40% tax level dampens aspiration one iota.Big_G_NorthWales said:
One word Ben - aspirationBenpointer said:Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
While I aspire to increasing my earnings I have other aspirations for my country. Contrary to easy myth, I support the SNP-Green tax changes in Scotland that have increased my tax recently.0 -
Tories 11 points ahead in Workington then0
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If you're sure the Tories will win the most seats, you can get a 20% return with Betfair Exchange.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1321176950 -
An effective post. As I wrote yesterday my test question to a few friends and relatives both Jews and Gentiles established that not a single one identified the subjects in the work being Jewish. Not flattering to bankers but not specifically Jewish bankers. It was clear that the work was a copy of something but a work I didn't know. It's particularly interesting that you have identified the bankers and only two are Jewish. In any event the fuss was clearly confected because it was revealed by Guido who is on a rather insidious mission.Ishmael_Z said:
What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.olm said:
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.Philip_Thompson said:
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?0 -
Probably eyeing the top of the LibDem bar on one of those dodgy Focus leaflet bar charts.ReggieCide said:
Is she looking towards the sunlit uplands?rottenborough said:1 -
Our polling indicates that In a General Election "tomorrow" the Conservative Party's candidate Mark Jenkinson would win the seat from Labour with an 11 point lead over the current incumbent Sue Hayman. pic.twitter.com/bb3ZLVc5EX
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) November 1, 20191 -
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Fairness? That's a novelty for you.Anabobazina said:
In all fairness, even the mildest of comments gets a fucking angry response from you, so you are hardly a reliable yardstick.ReggieCide said:
I agree your last para. I do not agree your first. Where I come from (Tottenham) calling someone geriatric no matter the accuracy as you would have it, would provoke a fucking angry response.Foxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.IanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
I'm not sure about that. I think the Lib Dems are going a bit over the top with promotions of Swinson. I have recently received a glossy leaflet announcing that she will be the next PM - and this in a constituency in which the Lib Dems came a poor third in 2017. This kind of hubris is silly and unlikely to encourage people to vote Lib Dem IMO.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.0 -
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.felix said:
Age is theFoxy said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Foxy said:
Strange move,
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
I don't think
I have no
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
What did I say that was disrespectful?
The whole tone was derogatory to old people - the term costa geriatrica is offensive implying that the old are infirm mentally or physically [also not true for manuy of us].
This is what you wrote:
"Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet."
If you do not think that is disrespectful then you need help/.
+1
It was quite notable that a fair few people arrested at the extinction rebellion protests were elderly. There is a significant elderly Green vote.0 -
That's right. He was about 14. George Ford's father Mike played for Wigan RL also but mostly Oldham and Cas.DougSeal said:
He moved down with his Dad when the latter joined Saracens from Wigan RL in 2006 or so. They were really only a couple of seasons away from being the only father and son picked for the same England team.Anabobazina said:
Farrell doesn’t sound like he went to school in Harpenden!PaulM said:
Farrell, Ford and Itoje all went to the same school in Harpenden (St George's).Richard_Tyndall said:
Of the current squad 15 State schools and 17 Private apparentlyStocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.0 -
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.0 -
On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future... 0
-
The early 80s was a more futuristic time than today.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
It is "used in that context" by people who know what the word bloody means.Foxy said:
It is often used in that context, but not exclusively.
It is also a simple matter of fact that 50% or more of the over 65 population have at least one chronic health condition.
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/31/5/557/537079
0 -
Maybe. Certainly the LDs are pushing back hard on this, even if the gender angle is patently nonsense. I wonder if they'll do a simultaneous live stream or something, so she can demonstrate how she would react to them and what they are avoiding.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.1 -
QEDReggieCide said:
Fairness? That's a novelty for you.Anabobazina said:
In all fairness, even the mildest of comments gets a fucking angry response from you, so you are hardly a reliable yardstick.ReggieCide said:
I agree your last para. I do not agree your first. Where I come from (Tottenham) calling someone geriatric no matter the accuracy as you would have it, would provoke a fucking angry response.Foxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.Foxy said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.IanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7641065/Undergraduates-tweet-boasting-shell-vote-twice-exposes-lax-voting-system.html
No wonder Labour don't want changes to system0 -
It is ironic that a Brexit PM will make a tax cut that favours Remain voters. AB voters of working age will be the big beneficiaries. Indeed I will quite enjoy that extra £500 per month too!Anabobazina said:
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.0 -
Probably to help them win a few crucial seats.AndyJS said:
Very very depressing news. Back to the dark ages.Big_G_NorthWales said:Breaking
Government ban fracking0 -
I thought I was jokingFoxy said:
Clearly you have never read my posts. I have often been in isolation on this site speaking against euthanasia, and have consistently done so.ReggieCide said:
At least we'll know where to go if we fancy a bit of euthanasia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctorFoxy said:
What did I say that was disrespectful?Big_G_NorthWales said:
But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of societyFoxy said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.ReggieCide said:
I don't think the issueFoxy said:
The age pyramidIanB2 said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.Foxy said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.IanB2 said:
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
I have the same read of it. Johnson vs Corbyn 121 will be *excruciating* - neither of them will look good. They'll both stand there arguing over who will get the better Brexit deal then argue over mumbled Latin abuse (Johnson) and unrestricted Marxism (Corbyn).Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.
Meanwhile the country says "bugger this". Its a Brexit election. No Deal. No Brexit0 -
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government .......anothernick said:
I'm not sure about that. I think the Lib Dems are going a bit over the top with promotions of Swinson. I have recently received a glossy leaflet announcing that she will be the next PM - and this in a constituency in which the Lib Dems came a poor third in 2017. This kind of hubris is silly and unlikely to encourage people to vote Lib Dem IMO.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.
What happened next.......0 -
Well, at least you have worked out why he has done it, boy.Foxy said:
It is ironic that a Brexit PM will make a tax cut that favours Remain voters.Anabobazina said:
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.
I know I can call you boy, because Swinson is calling a 70 year old and a 55 year old boys.
No-one becomes geriatric in Jo's World.1 -
It does rain all the time though. As in the film.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
Workington is target 48 from Labour for the Tories.2
-
Oh here we go again - dark forces at work to discredit st Jezbollah eh Woger?Roger said:
An effective post. As I wrote yesterday my test question to a few friends and relatives both Jews and Gentiles established that not a single one identified the subjects in the work being Jewish. Not flattering to bankers but not specifically Jewish bankers. It was clear that the work was a copy of something but a work I didn't know. It's particularly interesting that you have identified the bankers and only two are Jewish. In any event the fuss was clearly confected because it was revealed by Guido who is on a rather insidious mission.Ishmael_Z said:
What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.olm said:
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.Philip_Thompson said:
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?2 -
On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.2
-
Sounds like we got the same leaflet in a similar constituency. Obviously a job lot.anothernick said:
I'm not sure about that. I think the Lib Dems are going a bit over the top with promotions of Swinson. I have recently received a glossy leaflet announcing that she will be the next PM - and this in a constituency in which the Lib Dems came a poor third in 2017. This kind of hubris is silly and unlikely to encourage people to vote Lib Dem IMO.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.0 -
Feels odd that I am now apparently an AB top 5% person. I'm still working class - I have to get out of bed very early in a morning to work to pay my bills, and I work *hard*. I also carry 35 people's jobs directly on my shoulders, and its not been easy going at times this year. If Shagger gets re-elected and wants to give me £500 a month I'm not saying no.Foxy said:
It is ironic that a Brexit PM will make a tax cut that favours Remain voters. AB voters of working age will be the big beneficiaries. Indeed I will quite enjoy that extra £500 per month too!Anabobazina said:
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.0 -
Your comment makes me feel sad and melancholy. Like tears in the ra[That's enough - Ed]rottenborough said:
It does rain all the time though. As in the film.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
There are people on this board who openly admit working less hours to avoid punitive tax ratesBenpointer said:
I see no evidence that the current 40% tax level dampens aspiration one iota.Big_G_NorthWales said:
One word Ben - aspirationBenpointer said:
Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are mostly the middle class - they are not the richBenpointer said:
But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excellent news if he confirms itBenpointer said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-thresholdBig_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of taxThe_Taxman said:
I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promisingThe_Taxman said:I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut...
It will not be for the rich
By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
I'm thinking about going down to 4 days a week for same reason0 -
Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/11904026868285808650 -
Do you dream of electric sheep? We need to know!viewcode said:
Your comment makes me feel sad and melancholy. Like tears in the ra[That's enough - Ed]rottenborough said:
It does rain all the time though. As in the film.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
Anabobazina said:
😘ReggieCide said:
QEDAnabobazina said:
Fairness? That's a novelty for you.ReggieCide said:
In all fairness, even the mildest of comments gets a fucking angry response from you, so you are hardly a reliable yardstick.Foxy said:
I agree your last para. I do not agree your first. Where I come from (Tottenham) calling someone geriatric no matter the accuracy as you would have it, would provoke a fucking angry response.ReggieCide said:
I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.Foxy said:
I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.IanB2 said:
The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.Foxy said:
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.IanB2 said:
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.Foxy said:
Age is thefelix said:
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move,IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.0 -
I know it's only a single seat, and I know that constituency polling is historically poor, but, those mighty caveats aside it's interesting that the Tory poll share is up in Workington, when it's quite a lot down on the last GE in the national Survation polls.Brom said:Our polling indicates that In a General Election "tomorrow" the Conservative Party's candidate Mark Jenkinson would win the seat from Labour with an 11 point lead over the current incumbent Sue Hayman. pic.twitter.com/bb3ZLVc5EX
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) November 1, 2019
This suggests that the Brexit realignment is a process, not an event that happened at GE2017. The corollary is that in more Remain-supporting seats the decline in the Conservative poll share will be more precipitous.
Edit - Also worth noting that it's not entirely inconsistent with the BestForBritain MRP result for Workington, which also has the Tories leading.1 -
Honestly it'd be amusing to see how the pair would handle having Swinson there. How much could Corbyn attack her without risking remain votes, so would he attempt to ignore any points she made to focus on Johnson? Would Johnson do a 'I agree with Jo' strategy to simultaneously put off some Labour voters going LD in southern seats and reassure some of his more liberal voters?RochdalePioneers said:
I have the same read of it. Johnson vs Corbyn 121 will be *excruciating* - neither of them will look good. They'll both stand there arguing over who will get the better Brexit deal then argue over mumbled Latin abuse (Johnson) and unrestricted Marxism (Corbyn).Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.
Meanwhile the country says "bugger this". Its a Brexit election. No Deal. No Brexit0 -
Time to die.viewcode said:
Your comment makes me feel sad and melancholy. Like tears in the ra[That's enough - Ed]rottenborough said:
It does rain all the time though. As in the film.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
I know it's only a single seat, and I know that constituency polling is historically poor, but, those mighty caveats aside it's interesting that the Tory poll share is up in Workington, when it's quite a lot down on the last GE in the national Survation polls.OblitusSumMe said:Brom said:Our polling indicates that In a General Election "tomorrow" the Conservative Party's candidate Mark Jenkinson would win the seat from Labour with an 11 point lead over the current incumbent Sue Hayman. pic.twitter.com/bb3ZLVc5EX
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) November 1, 2019
This suggests that the Brexit realignment is a process, not an event that happened at GE2017. The corollary is that in more Remain-supporting seats the decline in the Conservative poll share will be more precipitous.
Interesting possibility. I could believe that such trends will essentially increase from last time. In which case, were there more leave type seats they came close with last time than remainer type seats they just hung on with last time?0 -
Weirdly, I have read the book...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do you dream of electric sheep? We need to know!viewcode said:
Your comment makes me feel sad and melancholy. Like tears in the ra[That's enough - Ed]rottenborough said:
It does rain all the time though. As in the film.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
0 -
Calling me boy doesn't bother me, it just highlights your peurility.YBarddCwsc said:
Well, at least you have worked out why he has done it, boy.Foxy said:
It is ironic that a Brexit PM will make a tax cut that favours Remain voters.Anabobazina said:
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.
I know I can call you boy, because Swinson is calling a 70 year old and a 55 year old boys.
No-one becomes geriatric in Jo's World.
His tax cuts for rich Remainers merely foreshadows the shafting that people in old coalfield towns will get from the Tories.
0 -
There are 9 SNP targets they definitely won't get and 6 Lib Dem targets they are unlikely to get any of either. The getvoting website has Labour 3 pts behind the Tories with its MRP model btw.Brom said:On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
0 -
Although there is probably a fair bit of churn the most interesting part of the Workington poll appears to be Lab vote moving to the brexit party, this certainly supports the idea that this could be the type of place where Farage helps the Tories. Obviously that won't be the story across the country and beware of constituency polls ect ect0
-
The figures areBrom said:On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
Conservatives 45 (+3)
Labour 34 (-17)
Lib Dems 5 (-2)
Brexit Party 13 (new)
Green 2 (new)
So conservative plus tbp at 58%
If this is true the collapse of the labour vote would see many gains in the north0 -
Me too.Floater said:
There are people on this board who openly admit working less hours to avoid punitive tax ratesBenpointer said:
I see no evidence that the current 40% tax level dampens aspiration one iota.Big_G_NorthWales said:
One word Ben - aspirationBenpointer said:
Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are mostly the middle class - they are not the richBenpointer said:
But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excellent news if he confirms itBenpointer said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-thresholdBig_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of taxThe_Taxman said:
I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promisingThe_Taxman said:I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut...
It will not be for the rich
By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
I'm thinking about going down to 4 days a week for same reason0 -
The Tory vote will be down considerably in London and other big cities like Bristol. The other side of that is the Tories doing better than average in places like Workington.0
-
Very true, might as well be ambitious and include all the targets though! You never know with split and tactical votes. On these sorts of numbers up to 60 Tory gains possible, though I expect they'd settle for half of that!Pulpstar said:
There are 9 SNP targets they definitely won't get and 6 Lib Dem targets they are unlikely to get any of either. The getvoting website has Labour 3 pts behind the Tories with its MRP model btw.Brom said:On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
0 -
Foxy said:
Calling me boy doesn't bother me, it just highlights your peurility.YBarddCwsc said:
Well, at least you have worked out why he has done it, boy.Foxy said:
It is ironic that a Brexit PM will make a tax cut that favours Remain voters.Anabobazina said:
Yep. It will push £500 a month into my pocket. It won’t make me vote for the irresponsible clown in a million years, but at least I will be able to live it up in some decent hotels while I get used to the idea of the prat running the country for four more years.RochdalePioneers said:
Johnson's mega tax bung will be due compensation if he wins. His Brexit deal will make various things a mega pain in the arse, so I will definitely have earned the *fuck me, how much?!?* tax rebateBenpointer said:
Me too on both counts.Richard_Tyndall said:I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.
I know I can call you boy, because Swinson is calling a 70 year old and a 55 year old boys.
No-one becomes geriatric in Jo's World.
His tax cuts for rich Remainers merely foreshadows the shafting that people in old coalfield towns will get from the Tories.
I agree that "Scared, Boys" is a bit puerile and disrespectful, when addressed to a 70 year old.
1 -
Does Corbyn have a man problem ?0
-
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.0 -
I was hunting around to see what tactical voting sites are available, and was curious on a leave inclined one, and it was there I discovered George Galloway is standing in West Bromwich East, as it recommended voting for him. He just never goes away, does he?
Supposedly Harvey Proctor is standing in the same seat (or stated he would at one point), for reasons that become obvious once it is remembered who the MP is.0 -
I have cut my hours because back because of the pensions tax taper. That is what the right side of the Laffer curve does. I am far from the only one.Floater said:
There are people on this board who openly admit working less hours to avoid punitive tax ratesBenpointer said:
I see no evidence that the current 40% tax level dampens aspiration one iota.Big_G_NorthWales said:
One word Ben - aspirationBenpointer said:
Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are mostly the middle class - they are not the richBenpointer said:
But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excellent news if he confirms itBenpointer said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-thresholdBig_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of taxThe_Taxman said:
I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the momentBig_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promisingThe_Taxman said:I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut...
It will not be for the rich
Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.
Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.
(In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
I'm thinking about going down to 4 days a week for same reason
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7622359/amp/TWO-THIRDS-surgeons-cut-hours-avoid-bills-pensions.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-related&__twitter_impression=true
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Yes, it is promising to be quite a circus in West Bromwich East.kle4 said:I was hunting around to see what tactical voting sites are available, and was curious on a leave inclined one, and it was there I discovered George Galloway is standing in West Bromwich East, as it recommended voting for him. He just never goes away, does he?
Supposedly Harvey Proctor is standing in the same seat (or stated he would at one point), for reasons that become obvious once it is remembered who the MP is.
And we haven't yet got the name of the Brexit party Candidate.
I expect the ever-generous LibDems have left the seat for the Greens in their famous Remain Alliance.0 -
The 58% works as it was 61% leave. That leave core of the Labour vote appears to be deserting them, something we didn't see so dramatically in 2017.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The figures areBrom said:On UNS Workington is Tory target number 61, this poll had every candidate prompted and would give the Tories a 4-5k majority. Promising stuff for Boris given survation are not their best pollster.
Conservatives 45 (+3)
Labour 34 (-17)
Lib Dems 5 (-2)
Brexit Party 13 (new)
Green 2 (new)
So conservative plus tbp at 58%
If this is true the collapse of the labour vote would see many gains in the north1 -
And every time you saw a light, it was surrounded by rich chromatic anamorphic lens flare, not the insipid CGI lens flare you get these days...AndyJS said:
The early 80s was a more futuristic time than today.viewcode said:On a sad note, it is now November 2019. It is the time period in which the original "Blade Runner" was set. But we have no spinners, no replicants, no off-world colonies. I would have preferred a better future...
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It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.0 -
It's pretty remarkable how much the SNP could gain with tiny vote increases, or none. Like this one projecting15 gains while up 0.1%
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1189500332700852225
(0.1% counted nationally, granted)0 -
It's a national one, I think. I got it here in Surrey too, bundled with diverse adverts for estate agents and the like. I assume they did a UK-wide commercial delivery deal with Royal Mail.ReggieCide said:
Sounds like we got the same leaflet in a similar constituency. Obviously a job lot.anothernick said:
I'm not sure about that. I think the Lib Dems are going a bit over the top with promotions of Swinson. I have recently received a glossy leaflet announcing that she will be the next PM - and this in a constituency in which the Lib Dems came a poor third in 2017. This kind of hubris is silly and unlikely to encourage people to vote Lib Dem IMO.Benpointer said:
This will play long and large.rottenborough said:
In some ways Swinson may do better from not having been included in a Johnson/Corbyn head to head; they are going to look like tired old politicians rehashing PMQs in primetime.0 -
I've been to Workington. Somewhere less likely to have a Conservative MP was hard to imagine.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.0 -
It's incredibly depressing to see the number of people on Twitter who disparage opinion polls every time one comes out that they don't like, writing comments like "how can you tell how people are going to vote from a sample of just 500". Well, that's how sampling works.2
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It seems possible that Corby hit the sweet spot in 2017 by getting both Remainers and Leavers to believe Labour was on their side.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.
In 2019, it seems neither Remainers nor Leavers believe Labour is on their side.
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It does look like itYBarddCwsc said:
It seems possible that Corby hit the sweet spot in 2017 by getting both Remainers and Leavers to believe Labour was on their side.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.
In 2019, it seems neither Remainers nor Leavers believe Labour is on their side.0 -
I agree, and that has considerable implications. A good number of incumbent Tories in the SE will be rightly afeeared of losing their seats.AndyJS said:The Tory vote will be down considerably in London and other big cities like Bristol. The other side of that is the Tories doing better than average in places like Workington.
If we wind up a similar number of Tory MPs after the GE, they will be in very different places and representing very different areas. It will be a Tory party, but not as we know it.0 -
If two weeks from now Labour do not show signs of recovering, I'll start believing that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does look like itYBarddCwsc said:
It seems possible that Corby hit the sweet spot in 2017 by getting both Remainers and Leavers to believe Labour was on their side.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.
In 2019, it seems neither Remainers nor Leavers believe Labour is on their side.1 -
I've long said that Boris would be utterly shameless in nicking the bits off Labour and the LibDems that were popular.
Canning fracking is just the start.1 -
It would be fine if that meant they simply didn't believe any polling, that's at least consistent, but we know that's not what people do.AndyJS said:It's incredibly depressing to see the number of people on Twitter who disparage opinion polls every time one comes out that they don't like, writing comments like "how can you tell how people are going to vote from a sample of just 500". Well, that's how sampling works.
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The fracking announcement from the Gov't will go down very well indeed round here.0
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This.YBarddCwsc said:
It seems possible that Corby hit the sweet spot in 2017 by getting both Remainers and Leavers to believe Labour was on their side.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does seem hard to believe but labour could be in for a disasterSandyRentool said:
In that Workington poll we lose a third of our vote. In line with national polling.nunu2 said:Paging Bearnstein, how does this for in your model?
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1190402686828580865
Fecked.
In 2019, it seems neither Remainers nor Leavers believe Labour is on their side.0 -
I have to say I was thinking more about it putting some Lib Dem long shots plausibly within reach. The general decline in the Labour vote means some such marginal seats might not be so much at risk.kle4 said:
Interesting possibility. I could believe that such trends will essentially increase from last time. In which case, were there more leave type seats they came close with last time than remainer type seats they just hung on with last time?OblitusSumMe said:I know it's only a single seat, and I know that constituency polling is historically poor, but, those mighty caveats aside it's interesting that the Tory poll share is up in Workington, when it's quite a lot down on the last GE in the national Survation polls.
This suggests that the Brexit realignment is a process, not an event that happened at GE2017. The corollary is that in more Remain-supporting seats the decline in the Conservative poll share will be more precipitous.0 -
FFS, really?!! Galloway is like Terminator.kle4 said:I was hunting around to see what tactical voting sites are available, and was curious on a leave inclined one, and it was there I discovered George Galloway is standing in West Bromwich East, as it recommended voting for him. He just never goes away, does he?
Supposedly Harvey Proctor is standing in the same seat (or stated he would at one point), for reasons that become obvious once it is remembered who the MP is.0 -
Safe to say if they're comfortably taking Workington the gains will outnumber the losses and more importantly the gains will be from Labour, however a long way to go in the campaign. Getting Labour to talk Brexit will be key for the Tories and for Labour avoiding too much Brexit talk is their only route to success.Foxy said:
I agree, and that has considerable implications. A good number of incumbent Tories in the SE will be rightly afeeared of losing their seats.AndyJS said:The Tory vote will be down considerably in London and other big cities like Bristol. The other side of that is the Tories doing better than average in places like Workington.
If we wind up a similar number of Tory MPs after the GE, they will be in very different places and representing very different areas. It will be a Tory party, but not as we know it.0 -
Would be a very good night for the Tories if they're winning seats like Workington by 11%. 61 on their target list.0
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Oh I meant the same, in essence - are there more where the trend opens up those LD long shots (there'll definitely be a few) than there are ones it enables Tories to hold off/take from Labour?OblitusSumMe said:
I have to say I was thinking more about it putting some Lib Dem long shots plausibly within reach.kle4 said:
I know it's only a single seat, and I know that constituency polling is historically poor, but, those mighty caveats aside it's interesting that the Tory poll share is up in Workington, when it's quite a lot down on the last GE in the national Survation polls.OblitusSumMe said:Brom said:Our polling indicates that In a General Election "tomorrow" the Conservative Party's candidate Mark Jenkinson would win the seat from Labour with an 11 point lead over the current incumbent Sue Hayman. pic.twitter.com/bb3ZLVc5EX
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) November 1, 2019
This suggests that the Brexit realignment is a process, not an event that happened at GE2017. The corollary is that in more Remain-supporting seats the decline in the Conservative poll share will be more precipitous.
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The LD share in Workington looks very low, but the seat has a long history of very low Liberal shares of the vote.
For example in 1983 it registered the 5th lowest Alliance share in England with 11.9%, which counted as a lost deposit at the time.2
This discussion has been closed.