Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
No - Cameron only appeared in a single 2015 Debate which also included the minor party leaders. I wonder whether the LDs - and possibly the Brexit Party - will go to the Courts on this.
No, because Courts will not intervene.
It's been a feature of PB for many years that many posters have misunderstood OFCOM rules re major parties etc.
Major Parties do not all get equal coverage.
If you don't believe me go back to any campaign and review say BBC1 10pm news coverage. Con and Lab always get both more coverage and more prominent coverage, irrespective of whether LD, UKIP etc is also a major party.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
A macrobiotic moron who earned 15 minutes of fame through saving trees by living in them.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
Also Nicola has a better claim third party status.
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
So the polls say, and I think the LibDems are making a mistake in pushing her quite as much as they're doing, because it reinforces the impression that they don't stand for anything except revoking Brexit. That said, in today's splintered landscape, it's more important to have 25% who really like you than everyone thinking you're vaguely kind of acceptable, which is where Vince was. Net ratings aren't IMO that important.
But this may be more about positioning than personality, ie she'll have lost Leave enthusiasts with the Revoke plan, and Labour tribalists / Corbynists for refusing to accept Corbyn as caretaker PM. How the voters react to exposure to the actual person remains to be seen, and presumably the LibDems have focus-grouped it.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
So the polls say, and I think the LibDems are making a mistake in pushing her quite as much as they're doing, because it reinforces the impression that they don't stand for anything except revoking Brexit. That said, in today's splintered landscape, it's more important to have 25% who really like you than everyone thinking you're vaguely kind of acceptable, which is where Vince was. Net ratings aren't IMO that important.
That's not a great look for winning round the unconverted. My wife and many successful women don't like this sort of tokenism. By all means debate cos you're good enough but don't just expect an invite because you've got a vagina. It might play well with right on students but haven't a lot of them already switched yellow anyway?
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He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.
A great analysis of Nottingham(ish) seats......
Don't start that again!
There is a fair amount of LD effort on Rushcliffe, but starting from too low a base imo, even in a Europhile constituency.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Isn't that a bit 'woke'?
Sorry to ask, but trying to get my head around this new word.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
A macrobiotic moron who earned 15 minutes of fame through saving trees by living in them.
He was ahead of the curve. Now it is the Tories campaigning to scrap new transport routes.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
So the polls say, and I think the LibDems are making a mistake in pushing her quite as much as they're doing, because it reinforces the impression that they don't stand for anything except revoking Brexit. That said, in today's splintered landscape, it's more important to have 25% who really like you than everyone thinking you're vaguely kind of acceptable, which is where Vince was. Net ratings aren't IMO that important.
Agreed. But I was thinking she's becoming a single-point-of-failure for the Lib Dems. 2017 Conservatives pinned their hopes on May, and she shat the bed. Is Swinson subject to similar problems?
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Interesting. LDs won IOW in 1997. They're actually giving up something there. Can't see Greens winning it but could be a fairly close second.
The Best for Britain MRP has Lib Dems/Labour/Greens tied for third place behind Conservative and Brexit Party without tactical voting, and advise voting tactically for the Greens, which pushes them into second. In the unlikely event that all the non-tactical Lib Dems vote for the Greens as part of this pact it would push the Greens up high enough to be about tied with the Conservatives for first.
It's still a long shot, but it's not a worthless concession from the Lib Dems to the Greens. It will be interesting to see the (longer) list of seats where the Greens stand aside for the Lib Dems.
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginal
The Green Lib Dems are quite a strong and active LD faction. There are few LDs unhappy with an electoral alliance with the Greens. We have a lot of common policies.
I'm one of the few unhappy ones. I don't like these pacts at all... the more seats we Lib Dems stand in the less serious we look as a national party and the less claim we are able to make to be treated equally with Con and Lab. That plus the fact that voters don't like being herded and many will resist. If I lived in a seat where the Lib Dems stood down in favour of the Greens I'd be more likely, by an order of magnitude, to stay at home than vote Green.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
No - Cameron only appeared in a single 2015 Debate which also included the minor party leaders. I wonder whether the LDs - and possibly the Brexit Party - will go to the Courts on this.
No, because Courts will not intervene.
It's been a feature of PB for many years that many posters have misunderstood OFCOM rules re major parties etc.
Major Parties do not all get equal coverage.
If you don't believe me go back to any campaign and review say BBC1 10pm news coverage. Con and Lab always get both more coverage and more prominent coverage, irrespective of whether LD, UKIP etc is also a major party.
I am not disputing that at all - though I do recall some use of the Courts in an earlier election related to having been excluded from the Debates - possibly the Greens in 2015. I certainly see little case for including Swinson whilst excluding other minor party leaders.Having polled a small vote share at two consecutive General Elections, the LDs lack the automatic claim to major party status enjoyed in 2010.
BTW, Farage did a smart move by not announcing where he'll be standing yet.
That way, he gets another day of publicity when he says Hartlepool or Thurrock or wherever on the day of the Tory campaign launch.
See Anne Widdecombe standing in Plymouth S &D.Interesting seat held by labour by almost 7000 so looks safe but Luke Pollard increased his vote share by almost 17 per cent to win in 2017.That looks to have come largely from UKIP who were down 11 per cent and the Greens down 6 per cent. whilst the Tory incumbent went up a small amount. If that former UKIP vote unwinds back to Widde, Pollard could be in trouble and the Tories could retake.
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
So the polls say, and I think the LibDems are making a mistake in pushing her quite as much as they're doing, because it reinforces the impression that they don't stand for anything except revoking Brexit. That said, in today's splintered landscape, it's more important to have 25% who really like you than everyone thinking you're vaguely kind of acceptable, which is where Vince was. Net ratings aren't IMO that important.
Agreed. But I was thinking she's becoming a single-point-of-failure for the Lib Dems. 2017 Conservatives pinned their hopes on May, and she shat the bed. Is Swinson subject to similar problems?
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
90s crusty protester of Newbury bypass fame if I recall correctly
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Possibly, possibly not - but it is unquestionably crap art.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
90s crusty protester of Newbury bypass fame if I recall correctly
Don’t forget “Have I Got News For You” Guest...
On which he displayed an extraordinary ignorance of what was going on in the world.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic... How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Mostly because the artist was so bloody awful he gave most of them hook noses and retrousse chins. Granted there wasn't ringlets, full beards and kippahs, but if you were looking for an example of anti-Jewish caricaturisation in art, this would serve pretty well as illustration.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
A famous environmental campaigner from the 90s - involved in Twyford Down and various other campaigns (google “Daniel Hooper Swampy”)
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
BTW, Farage did a smart move by not announcing where he'll be standing yet.
That way, he gets another day of publicity when he says Hartlepool or Thurrock or wherever on the day of the Tory campaign launch.
See Anne Widdecombe standing in Plymouth S &D.Interesting seat held by labour by almost 7000 so looks safe but Luke Pollard increased his vote share by almost 17 per cent to win in 2017.That looks to have come largely from UKIP who were down 11 per cent and the Greens down 6 per cent. whilst the Tory incumbent went up a small amount. If that former UKIP vote unwinds back to Widde, Pollard could be in trouble and the Tories could retake.
Widdecombe stood against David Owen In Plymouth Devonport back in 1983.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
Remain Alliance. The clue is in the name.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.
There's a difference between allying for remain, and outright joint LD/Green candidates, that seems to suggest they might as well merge.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
The situation is a little more fraught now. But fundamentally I agree. Where remain and leave voting seems to have the most impact is in the remain areas, not to the Tories' advantage, while Labour leave areas are a little more stubborn (though there will be some losses)
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
Lincoln, the seat where I live and am an active Lib Dem member, is an interesting rematch between the unpopular Labour MP and the equally unpopular former Conservative MP. I don't know which way it'll go... genuinely equal chance for both red and blue, I reckon.
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.
No - Cameron only appeared in a single 2015 Debate which also included the minor party leaders. I wonder whether the LDs - and possibly the Brexit Party - will go to the Courts on this.
No, because Courts will not intervene.
It's been a feature of PB for many years that many posters have misunderstood OFCOM rules re major parties etc.
Major Parties do not all get equal coverage.
If you don't believe me go back to any campaign and review say BBC1 10pm news coverage. Con and Lab always get both more coverage and more prominent coverage, irrespective of whether LD, UKIP etc is also a major party.
I am not disputing that at all - though I do recall some use of the Courts in an earlier election related to having been excluded from the Debates - possibly the Greens in 2015. I certainly see little case for including Swinson whilst excluding other minor party leaders.Having polled a small vote share at two consecutive General Elections, the LDs lack the automatic claim to major party status enjoyed in 2010.
The point is OFCOM almost certainly WILL give LDs major party status.
But major party status does NOT mean equal coverage.
Numerous posters on PB have never been able to digest this point.
BTW, Farage did a smart move by not announcing where he'll be standing yet.
That way, he gets another day of publicity when he says Hartlepool or Thurrock or wherever on the day of the Tory campaign launch.
See Anne Widdecombe standing in Plymouth S &D.Interesting seat held by labour by almost 7000 so looks safe but Luke Pollard increased his vote share by almost 17 per cent to win in 2017.That looks to have come largely from UKIP who were down 11 per cent and the Greens down 6 per cent. whilst the Tory incumbent went up a small amount. If that former UKIP vote unwinds back to Widde, Pollard could be in trouble and the Tories could retake.
Widdecombe stood against David Owen In Plymouth Devonport back in 1983.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recently
Who or what is Swampy?
90s crusty protester of Newbury bypass fame if I recall correctly
Don’t forget “Have I Got News For You” Guest...
Oh, I remember now! Very board one day I even watched the audio commentary on the HIGNFY DVD, and I seem to recall Hislop describing him as a very sweet boy.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Isn't that a bit 'woke'?
Sorry to ask, but trying to get my head around this new word.
Not woke - more sauce for the gander. Those sorts of phrases applied in a racial or religious context the poster would never use. The elderly apear to be that last group who are allowed to be stereotyped.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
The fact Corbyn's spokesperson defended him by saying he had not looked at it properly, thereby implicitly admitting it was obviously anti-semitic at proper glance.
If they'd felt they could defend him by saying it was not obviously so, they would have done so, because no one uses 'I was stupid and didn't look properly' as a defence unless they have no other choice.
It's hilarious people, even some quite sensible people, keep trying to defend Corbyn on that one with a defence he himself did not use, and which his actual defence undermines the attempt to use it.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move,
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
Remain Alliance. The clue is in the name.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.
There's a difference between allying for remain, and outright joint LD/Green candidates, that seems to suggest they might as well merge.
It is also a sign of weakness apart from annoying quite a lot of voters who expect the choice
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
The situation is a little more fraught now. But fundamentally I agree. Where remain and leave voting seems to have the most impact is in the remain areas, not to the Tories' advantage, while Labour leave areas are a little more stubborn (though there will be some losses)
I believe that voters are far more sick of the Brexit issue now than in mid-2017 and that other issues are more likely to override it. Already some signs of that happening.
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
If the Conservatives are, in fact, 12% ahead of Labour now, compared to 2.5% in 2017, those are the sort of seats where the Conservative lead will show up.
Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?
They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?
The electoral pact thing can't be helping.
The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.
Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?
They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?
The electoral pact thing can't be helping.
The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.
They've probably lost a couple of percent from the 18-19% mark.
They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.
I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
I suspect the LDs will fall back for the simple reason that they received a boost in the immediate pre-campaign period. I can think of no precedent for the LDs/Alliance/Liberals managing to hang on to the peak levels of support reached in previous upturns in their electoral fortunes.Back in 1964 the Liberals polled well below post-Orpington poll levels.Even the Liberal surge in February 1974 failed to match what had been implied by polls and by elections in 1972 & 1973.The Alliance result in 1983 - notwithstanding the surge of the final ten days - was pretty disappointing set aside the high expectations generated by the Warrington and Crosby by elections. Ditto - 1987 in relation to the Greenwich by election. In this Parliament, the LDs have rarely exceeded 20%, and, in my view, they will do well to exceed 15%. I am expecting circa 12%.
You're being a bit selective. I've posted the numbers on here before, but the mean change in the 1979 to now period in LibDem/Alliance/Liberal support from the poll immediately preceding the election being called is +4%.
Mostly, they benefit from the increased attention in the election campaign.
That doesn't mean it'll happen again, and I agree that they're starting from a higher base (relative to their average support through the parliament), but I think a six point drop is as about the same likelihood as a six point increase. Simply, both are possible. And if I had a central case, it would probably the LDs on 16-18%, and getting 20-22 seats. (But that's a very low confidence prediction.)
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Isn't that a bit 'woke'?
Sorry to ask, but trying to get my head around this new word.
Not woke - more sauce for the gander. Those sorts of phrases applied in a racial or religious context the poster would never use. The elderly apear to be that last group who are allowed to be stereotyped.
In what way did I disparage the elderly? Simply pointing out a demographic fact is not ageist, any more than pointing out that university towns have a younger population. Both have electoral effects
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
So the polls say, and I think the LibDems are making a mistake in pushing her quite as much as they're doing, because it reinforces the impression that they don't stand for anything except revoking Brexit. That said, in today's splintered landscape, it's more important to have 25% who really like you than everyone thinking you're vaguely kind of acceptable, which is where Vince was. Net ratings aren't IMO that important.
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
If the Conservatives are, in fact, 12% ahead of Labour now, compared to 2.5% in 2017, those are the sort of seats where the Conservative lead will show up.
A lead of that size would lead to significant Labour losses - though in Lincoln Labour might be helped by first term incumbency.
In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.
The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
The situation is a little more fraught now. But fundamentally I agree. Where remain and leave voting seems to have the most impact is in the remain areas, not to the Tories' advantage, while Labour leave areas are a little more stubborn (though there will be some losses)
I believe that voters are far more sick of the Brexit issue now than in mid-2017 and that other issues are more likely to override it. Already some signs of that happening.
Yup. Brexit is just an utterly fucking boring issue to debate isn’t it? I was struck by how enjoyable it was to debate yesterday a) the four-day week and b) whether Loughborough could rightly be termed Nottingham(ish). I suspect the fact neither had anything to do with Brexit inordinately increased their allure.
I think Brexit supporters who want Brexit to happen will vote Conservative. “Brexit” supporters who hate Corbyn and the Tories will vote Brexit. Cons need to avoid the trap of attacking BXP
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic... How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Mostly because the artist was so bloody awful he gave most of them hook noses and retrousse chins. Granted there wasn't ringlets, full beards and kippahs, but if you were looking for an example of anti-Jewish caricaturisation in art, this would serve pretty well as illustration.
I respectfully suggest you look again more closely, as that is measurably untrue. He gave two of them hook noses, because they had them, and another one a largish nose, because he had one. He did not give most of them retrousse (turned-up) chins. Whether one considers it crap art is subjective like all art I'd suggest.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
"Around ten million watched the semi-final. That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.
Of the current squad 15 State schools and 17 Private apparently
Farrell, Ford and Itoje all went to the same school in Harpenden (St George's).
Farrell doesn’t sound like he went to school in Harpenden!
He moved down with his Dad when the latter joined Saracens from Wigan RL in 2006 or so. They were really only a couple of seasons away from being the only father and son picked for the same England team.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
I'm not. And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.
(FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move,
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
Using an ounce of common sense, I would have thought you might not need a list. I've not seen you called out for what you present yourself as here, so perhaps you just forgot yourself.
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
This mural is not obviously anti-semitic... How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Mostly because the artist was so bloody awful he gave most of them hook noses and retrousse chins. Granted there wasn't ringlets, full beards and kippahs, but if you were looking for an example of anti-Jewish caricaturisation in art, this would serve pretty well as illustration.
I respectfully suggest you look again more closely, as that is measurably untrue. He gave two of them hook noses, because they had them, and another one a largish nose, because he had one. He did not give most of them retrousse (turned-up) chins. Whether one considers it crap art is subjective like all art I'd suggest.
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?
Remain Alliance. The clue is in the name.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.
There's a difference between allying for remain, and outright joint LD/Green candidates, that seems to suggest they might as well merge.
It is also a sign of weakness apart from annoying quite a lot of voters who expect the choice
A small party can't win, in this sense. Attacked for standing aside for the LDs in England and in Wales for the cause of Remain and stopping a Tory government. In Scotland the Greens are being attacked in the media and social media for not standing aside for the SNP in the cause of remain, Indyref, and stopping a Tory government. Some saying they'll never vote Green again. How widespread this is in the broader public is another matter, time may tell.
Comments
It's been a feature of PB for many years that many posters have misunderstood OFCOM rules re major parties etc.
Major Parties do not all get equal coverage.
If you don't believe me go back to any campaign and review say BBC1 10pm news coverage. Con and Lab always get both more coverage and more prominent coverage, irrespective of whether LD, UKIP etc is also a major party.
That way, he gets another day of publicity when he says Hartlepool or Thurrock or wherever on the day of the Tory campaign launch.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
But this may be more about positioning than personality, ie she'll have lost Leave enthusiasts with the Revoke plan, and Labour tribalists / Corbynists for refusing to accept Corbyn as caretaker PM. How the voters react to exposure to the actual person remains to be seen, and presumably the LibDems have focus-grouped it.
Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.
The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.
On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.
However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.
How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
Sorry to ask, but trying to get my head around this new word.
It's still a long shot, but it's not a worthless concession from the Lib Dems to the Greens. It will be interesting to see the (longer) list of seats where the Greens stand aside for the Lib Dems.
Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.
The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.
The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.
The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire
Mass debate her?
I certainly see little case for including Swinson whilst excluding other minor party leaders.Having polled a small vote share at two consecutive General Elections, the LDs lack the automatic claim to major party status enjoyed in 2010.
But major party status does NOT mean equal coverage.
Numerous posters on PB have never been able to digest this point.
Seems fairly inoffensive to me.
And not obviously stupid or pathological.
If they'd felt they could defend him by saying it was not obviously so, they would have done so, because no one uses 'I was stupid and didn't look properly' as a defence unless they have no other choice.
It's hilarious people, even some quite sensible people, keep trying to defend Corbyn on that one with a defence he himself did not use, and which his actual defence undermines the attempt to use it.
I actually think her name is Tory Swinson from time to time. Odd.
Mostly, they benefit from the increased attention in the election campaign.
That doesn't mean it'll happen again, and I agree that they're starting from a higher base (relative to their average support through the parliament), but I think a six point drop is as about the same likelihood as a six point increase. Simply, both are possible. And if I had a central case, it would probably the LDs on 16-18%, and getting 20-22 seats. (But that's a very low confidence prediction.)
https://twitter.com/brianmoore666/status/1190381530138521601?s=20
He gave two of them hook noses, because they had them, and another one a largish nose, because he had one.
He did not give most of them retrousse (turned-up) chins.
Whether one considers it crap art is subjective like all art I'd suggest.
And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.
(FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...
"I will definitely vote for my party"
Conservatives 71%
Labour 60%
#Brexit Party 55%
Lib Dems 31% <------
"I may change my mind"
Conservative 7%
Labour 16%
Brexit Party 19%
Lib Dem 29% <--------
#GE2019
YouGov data
Attacked for standing aside for the LDs in England and in Wales for the cause of Remain and stopping a Tory government.
In Scotland the Greens are being attacked in the media and social media for not standing aside for the SNP in the cause of remain, Indyref, and stopping a Tory government.
Some saying they'll never vote Green again.
How widespread this is in the broader public is another matter, time may tell.