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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat
Ever since a 2019 general election became a certainty punters made a CON majority the favourite outcome touching nearly a 60% chance on the Betfair according to the betdata.io chart.
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He remains a good, clear speaker - the only real asset the BXP have. I struggle to remember a single name in their ranks apart from Ann Widdecombe.
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.
Unless its all just an accident, a result of his "dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace" ...
...
wat
...
well, when you put it like that!
I'd be surprised if BXP won even one seat; certainly no more than low single figures. But it could play havoc in dozens of close constituencies where traditional loyalties were already pretty scrambled. The effect won't all be anti-Tory, but my guess is a majority will be.
https://twitter.com/InductiveStep/status/1189829037256007680/photo/1
But one thing we can guarantee is that Farage will get none. Yet TBP Ltd gets 7-10% then they are the referendum party of 2019, so just maybe we could see BoJo, Baker and Rees Mogg lose, and lets face it those particular Portillo moments would be especially satisfying...
More votes means more kudos, power, merchandising etc.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
But does anyone know whether our laws specifically require his programme to be taken off air?
The electoral pact thing can't be helping.
The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.
I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.
Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.
It's an uphill job for Corbyn but six weeks is a long time and with nothing material happening on the EU front it should be doable. A flu outbreak would help.
However, I do recall that, before British politics became absurdly volatile, a pattern was discerned whereby the Liberal Democrat polling share improved on mid-term polling levels during an election campaign, because they benefited from the extra exposure. It's possible that the Brexit Party will similarly benefit in this campaign, but they will have to work hard to avoid being squeezed.
Other politicians entered the fray because they wanted to be politicians.
So, no, Farage isn't likely to suffer a great deal of mission-creep until Brexit is done. After that though I think he'll wander off and say some sensible things, but on the fringes of politics. He's not David Icke.
They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.
I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
I think the tint isn't as heavy as you think though. The idea that the Tory party is a populist mob is simply daft. All of our political parties are very far from that. Labour gets closest via Momentum, but even they can't be described in that way. (Much as they'd like to be)
I think Mr M that your views are on the left, and I'm as sure as a hairspray that your views are remain. If I'm right on those things then I imagine you might have a tricky electoral choice ahead.
Expect more from the ERG
If she is then that will be why people can see past their doubts, because they will put their trust in her. On the basis of how she's gone missing over the last couple of days, and the bland wasteland that was the Jo Swinson booklet, the signs are not good.
Not many Tories do their shopping in Bish.
Bromsgrove South (Worcestershire) result:
CON: 40.2% (-0.3)
IND: 22.8% (+22.8)
LDEM: 18.7% (+13.7)
LAB: 18.3% (-32.2)
Conservative GAIN from Labour. Labour 1st to 4th.
Yes - he`s the reason I buy The Times on Saturday.
What Survation isn't obliged to do is to disclose that it is undertaking polling when the results aren't capable of generating the headlines that the LDs want. So far we've been given the results from Cambridge, Finchley and now NE Somerset only.
Watch out then for seats where the LDs DONT publish a poll. I suspect that there are some other polls out there which the LDs have decided they don't want you to see. If I am wrong and the LDs wanted to scupper that impression, all they need to do is to ask Survation to put out a statement denying that any other unpublished constituency polls have been conducted for the LDs.
"I don't want to be rude but, really, you have the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk and the question I want to ask is: 'Who are you?' I'd never heard of you. Nobody in Britain had ever heard of you. I can speak on behalf of the majority of the British people in saying that we don't know you, we don't want you, and the sooner you are put out to grass, the better."
But it can't be our job to sort out the inability of the Labour party's decent core to get themselves a leader Britons can trust. And it also IS our job to keep Britain out of the economic disaster that'll be inevitable if Brexit goes ahead.
Some sane advice on how to square this circle would help a lot more than reminding us all about Corbyn's all round uselessness. What's yours?
I hugely enjoy your mentions of adventures in places train-worthy. Some obscure siding somewhere that is only used one day a year to shunt some obscure locomotive is all a bit Harry Potter - a magical universe, but we'll navigate it with JK Rowling and thus avoid the many many dull bits.
It's possible there will be some strange (against the national swing) results, but it is far from certain.
Richmond, as you say, is a cert. There are then two from:
Hornsey & Wood Green
Southwark
City of London
Wimbledon
Sutton & Cheam
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
PB.COM is weird in that it’s interested in cricket rugby and football, but maybe it’s interested in betting opportunities that arise.
I ought to go up to Keighley to check out the Cougars. I might even watch some rugby.
My coat, please.