politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot
Comments
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I like them - gives a pleasant sense of light closure to each topic.Casino_Royale said:
Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.
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But it would be good news for the lib dems!Benpointer said:
It's got to be worth it at 12/1 I'd thought... A combination of disillusion, dark nights, Christmas parties and potential bad weather could hit turnout hard.Casino_Royale said:Benpointer said:
Sorry for being an ignoramus but does 'selling' in this context mean you profit if turnout is below 60%?Casino_Royale said:
No-one has tuned into this yet.stodge said:
It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.
Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
Yes.
Turnout below 60% would be a further blow to democracy imo, especially if it led to a thumping majority for any party.0 -
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.Gallowgate said:Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
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So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.Richard_Tyndall said:So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.
I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...
Whereas in April 2017 it had May 50%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.
Make of that what you will.
(Corrected a typo in the original post)1 -
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.0 -
tyson said:
@Big G and Philip Thomson,
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
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So predictablejustin124 said:
Very unlikely . Such voters will not wish to risk handing the seat back to the Tories. Ditto in Kensington. - and the idea that the LDs are in serious contention in Putney and Battersea is 'for the birds'.ThomasNashe said:
Ealing Central and Acton looks a prospect for a spectacular gain from 3rd place, given the Euro election vote. Topping knows this seat and would I think testify to Rupa Huq’s hugely increased majority having been a achieved on the backs of remainer Tories. They are likely to switch to LD this time round.PrinceofTaranto said:
Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.AndyJS said:
London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.PrinceofTaranto said:
I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.ExpatMalaysia said:
By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...Wulfrun_Phil said:Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.
williamglenn said:
I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.
Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.0 -
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is big NickNickPalmer said:For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times0 -
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Thanks, could not remember his name until you said. I suspect he is probably going up to the Lords! He was on TV the other day making very partisan pro government points in the chamber. He knows where his Bread and Butter is coming from for his retirement no doubt!ydoethur said:
Sir Patrick McLoughlin, who has just announced his retirement from politics.The_Taxman said:
Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!Recidivist said:
Is he?Richard_Tyndall said:
Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.Luckyguy1983 said:
I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.IanB2 said:
So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.Luckyguy1983 said:0 -
Patrick Marber is brilliant, and a big non league football fan and a conservative. What's not to like?!Roger said:0 -
You should show more respect for our septuagenarians....rcs1000 said:
Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?Wulfrun_Phil said:Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.
williamglenn said:0 -
What I find so fascinating is that while there's every chance Johnson will get a solid majority, the past few years show that almost any outcome is possible.Richard_Tyndall said:
May's satisfaction numbers took a real tumble over the same period.Benpointer said:
So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.Richard_Tyndall said:So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.
I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...
Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.
Make of that what you will.
In April at the start of the campaign she was +19 and by the end she was down to -7.
Johnson is only starting on +2 so if he runs as bad a campaign as May did he could be around -24 by election day. The gap between Johnson and Corbyn would be wider than that between May and Corbyn but perhaps one could claim of a similar magnitude?
As someone who wants Johnson to get a majority I just have to hope he runs a better campaign than May did (probable) and Corbyn does not perform as well this time as he did in 2017 (uncertain)
It feel to me that we may well end up with another hung parliament with the Tories as largest party but they've lost any chance of doing a deal so they'd end up heading for opposition in that case.
Odds on Boris to resign as Tory leader before the end of the year anyone?
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In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.justin124 said:
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is big NickNickPalmer said:For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times0 -
David Drew might well be in trouble in Stroud. He seems to have gone out of his way to seriously piss off the huge personal vote he had. If so, Glos will again be a Labour-free zone.Foxy said:
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
The only seats that might change hands in Staffs are Newcastle under Lyme and Stoke on Trent South - which would cancel each other out. Amanda Milling is no Winston Churchill but I can’t see her losing Cannock Chase at this moment (given he seat voted something like 69% leave) while the others are more or less safe seats.
I suppose there is a faint chance Fabricant might be upset by the Liberal Democrats in Lichfield, but it’s such a faint chance it hardly seems worth mentioning.0 -
Agreed!Casino_Royale said:Anabobazina said:
The ‘heavy lifting’ cliche is another teeth-grindingly awful PBism. Avoid.BannedInParis said:
"he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"tyson said:@Big G and Philip Thomson,
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong
that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.
Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.0 -
Very good.ydoethur said:
The thing about Labour voters is, they just don’t get English irony...tyson said:@Big G and Philip Thomson,
Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....
Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong0 -
A great analysis of Nottingham(ish) seats......Foxy said:
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.2 -
But the WC is a big enough deal to turn us all into temporary rugby buffs, and that is something to be encouraged. I don't bother with the 6 nations or anything else but i'll be watching tomorrow.Foxy said:
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.justin124 said:
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is big NickNickPalmer said:For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
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Is there a new Kantar poll out?
It's listed on Wiki but appears identical to 15 Oct poll and link is to 15 Oct poll.0 -
I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/40 -
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?Big_G_NorthWales said:“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
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English rugby has done it all in the last 2 years bar win the World Cup or beat Scotland.0
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And Loooong!felix said:
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.Gallowgate said:Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
I don’t think people are succinct enough1 -
Don't start that again!Anabobazina said:
A great analysis of Nottingham(ish) seats......Foxy said:
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
There is a fair amount of LD effort on Rushcliffe, but starting from too low a base imo, even in a Europhile constituency.0 -
Around ten million watched the semi-final.Foxy said:
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.justin124 said:
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is big NickNickPalmer said:For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
That’s an awful lot of poshos.0 -
November 14th, Mike.0
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... or win the Six Nations.Alistair said:English rugby has done it all in the last 2 years bar win the World Cup or beat Scotland.
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The national polls support my claim. Panelbase has the LDs trailing Labour by 15% and most polls have them in the 15% - 18% range. Very few LD gains in London on those figures - indeed even Richmond Park is not the certainty that many assume given that the Tories gained the seat in 2010 when polling less than 37% nationally with LDs on 23%.nichomar said:
Any evidence for that claim?justin124 said:
The only likely LD gain in London is Richmond Park.AndyJS said:
London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.PrinceofTaranto said:
I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.ExpatMalaysia said:
By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...Wulfrun_Phil said:Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.
williamglenn said:
I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.
Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.0 -
Because he wanted a border in the Irish SeaBenpointer said:
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?Big_G_NorthWales said:“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
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Pfui.Charles said:
And Loooong!felix said:
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.Gallowgate said:Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
I don’t think people are succinct enough0 -
Oh and I see the Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West prices have come in.
Edinburgh South is still a no brainer bet in my view.0 -
I had a very pleasant conversation with him about non-mains water supply over the summerNigelb said:
You should show more respect for our septuagenarians....rcs1000 said:
Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?Wulfrun_Phil said:Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.
williamglenn said:0 -
Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party1
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I will watch it, but more bothered by Sundays away match at Crystal Palace. That is the only match that I have heard discussed at work this week, amongst staff or patients.Nigelb said:
Around ten million watched the semi-final.Foxy said:
In England (apart perhaps parts of the WestCountry) Rugby is the poshos sport. No one else is bothered. That is true even in a place like Leicester, where historically the team has been strong.justin124 said:
But Nick is quite right - most people are not interested and the match will pass them by.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is big NickNickPalmer said:For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.
This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
That’s an awful lot of poshos.0 -
Pf would have made your point more economically.Nigelb said:
Pfui.Charles said:
And Loooong!felix said:
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.Gallowgate said:Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
I don’t think people are succinct enough
0 -
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2Alistair said:I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence0 -
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.0 -
The_Taxman said:
"Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? "
I`ve read Chance Witness too - it`s his autobiography. And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.0 -
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
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Given that they have already stated that they will not go into coalition with neither Lab nor Con, and given that they actually refused to form a GONu with them when offered, I should imagine they have already answered your question.Gabs2 said:
Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.AlastairMeeks said:
Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.Omnium said:
They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?AlastairMeeks said:Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?
The electoral pact thing can't be helping.
The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.
Consequently I look forward to you saying nice things about the Lib Dems. I'll hold my breath, shall I?...
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The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
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Arrgh!!
Just had a repeat of the 'PB.com not showing comments' problem...
Cleared my last hour of history and problem fixed.
Annnoying.0 -
In NottinghamshireFoxy said:
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
I can see Gloria Del Piero's (Ashfield) seat going blue.
Soubry will lose her seat (Broxtowe) but I think it will be back to blue.
There is perhaps a question over John Mann's seat (Bassetlaw) given he was a popular local MP and a Eurosceptic. It is an almost 5000 majority but was strongly Leave. It will depend a lot on who Labour put in his place. This was a solid Labour mining seat in the past but with Mansfield and Sherwood both having gone blue since 2010 I can see Bassetlaw following.
I can't see any others changing hands in either direction. Vernon Coaker in Gedling has a 4000+ majority but he is a popular local MP.
So potentially 2 gains on 2017 and 1 return for the blues but none of them are firm with the possible exception of Ashfield.0 -
Which doesn't explain why 1-5 seats is shortening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2Alistair said:I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence1 -
Interesting. LDs won IOW in 1997. They're actually giving up something there. Can't see Greens winning it but could be a fairly close second.IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
0 -
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginalIanB2 said:
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
0 -
Many thought they would be down to only 2Benpointer said:
Which doesn't explain why 1-5 seats is shortening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2Alistair said:I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence0 -
The ex LibDem Independent in Ashfield is also in with a chanceRichard_Tyndall said:
In NottinghamshireFoxy said:
I forecast no change in the 10 seats in Leics and Rutland. I cannot see Lab taking Loughborough, LDs taking Bosworth or Harborough, or any of the 3 Leicester seats going Tory. Some of them may be close though, and losing Nicky Morgan will hurt the Tories in Loughborough.Casino_Royale said:AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?AndyJS said:
You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
I can see Gloria Del Piero's (Ashfield) seat going blue.
Soubry will lose her seat (Broxtowe) but I think it will be back to blue.
There is perhaps a question over John Mann's seat (Bassetlaw) given he was a popular local MP and a Eurosceptic. It is an almost 5000 majority but was strongly Leave. It will depend a lot on who Labour put in his place. This was a solid Labour mining seat in the past but with Mansfield and Sherwood both having gone blue since 2010 I can see Bassetlaw following.
I can't see any others changing hands in either direction. Vernon Coaker in Gedling has a 4000+ majority but he is a popular local MP.
So potentially 2 gains on 2017 and 1 return for the blues but none of them are firm with the possible exception of Ashfield.0 -
A deal wasn’t going be done without both parties conceding the top seats that the other wanted. We’ll have to see next week how this pans out nationally.Brom said:
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginalIanB2 said:
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
0 -
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
They are different though I was happy with TM deal this is better in some waysBenpointer said:
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?Big_G_NorthWales said:“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
However, the important point is the spartans are going for Farage and no sign they will jump ship as he may have hoped0 -
It was also held by Stephen Ross for the Liberals February 1974 - 1987.Peter_the_Punter said:
Interesting. LDs won IOW in 1997. They're actually giving up something there. Can't see Greens winning it but could be a fairly close second.IanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
0 -
The Green Lib Dems are quite a strong and active LD faction. There are few LDs unhappy with an electoral alliance with the Greens. We have a lot of common policies.Brom said:
Most people outpolled the lib dems in 2017 but it's supposed to be different this time is it not? By not standing the kind are throwing away any chance of winning the seat for a long time which is mad as not long ago it could be considered a Tory Lib Dem marginalIanB2 said:
The National wish list for the Greens isn’t that long and the IOW is very high indeed on it. They comfortably outpolled the LibDems in 2017.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
0 -
"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.0 -
The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/10 -
Hasn't the Isle of Wight been split into two seats under the new boundaries?
Oh, no, hang on a minute...0 -
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/10 -
F.Ishmael_Z said:
Pf would have made your point more economically.Nigelb said:
Pfui.Charles said:
And Loooong!felix said:
Me too - with the added bonus that it saves a lot of time in reading the headers which tend to be overly slanted.Gallowgate said:Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
On the times I’ve written a header I draft it quickly and then spend several hours getting it down to 500 words.
I don’t think people are succinct enough0 -
PeterC said:
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You could have said the same about he-whom-Godwin's-law-prevents-us-from-mentioning but that never stopped him in 1930.PeterC said:
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.0 -
Farage and TBP are rivals, I would not expect the spartans to do anything other than disagree with TBP in public at least. At some point the spartans are either going to be in disagreement about BJ and his "one nation" domestic agenda or BJ is a liar and he is not one nation at all. If the latter is the case I am afraid you will feel to have been deceived given your initial scepticsm of BJ...Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are different though I was happy with TM deal this is better in some waysBenpointer said:
On the same basis Theresa May's deal took us out of the EU, so why didn't the idiot Francois vote for that one?Big_G_NorthWales said:“Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
However, the important point is the spartans are going for Farage and no sign they will jump ship as he may have hoped0 -
"This is the song of little Joedmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
She's not the girl I used to know"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhhYI8bdhfk1 -
A Brexit election debate is missing something without a remainer.Brom said:
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
But the LD petition appears mostly aimed at gathering supporter contact data.0 -
Four of them went to the same school in Tooting.Stocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graveney_School0 -
It's because I pointed it out, Mr Meeks went nice and Richard Navidi said he had already piled on.Benpointer said:
Which doesn't explain why 1-5 seats is shortening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2Alistair said:I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence1 -
Up to 70mph forecast for this very night. Will at least clear away the fog.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
Rugby Union commentators used to be forever wittering on about which school the players used to attend. Why the feck should I need to know that? Nigel Starmer Smith was the worst for it.Stocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.
I never heard Motty announce that Paul Gascoigne attended Heathfield Senior High while watching an England football international.0 -
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.0 -
I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/10 -
Yep, I've lived there, I'm the only one who will sit outside the Spyglass in a storm. Sadly as good as Ventnor is it also gave the world Polly Toynbee.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps the weather will play a hand. Ever experienced a high wind in Ventnor?Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.1 -
Agreed. And even if one does not like them, I find it rather astonishing people get aggravated by such things.NickPalmer said:
I like them - gives a pleasant sense of light closure to each topic.Casino_Royale said:
Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.1 -
No - Cameron only appeared in a single 2015 Debate which also included the minor party leaders. I wonder whether the LDs - and possibly the Brexit Party - will go to the Courts on this.Brom said:
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/10 -
No.Brom said:
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_debates0 -
They were going to do that regardless.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicola has gifted the conservatives a way to defend their seats by full on attacks on her and Indy 2Alistair said:I see SCon seat bands is currently moving
1-5 is in to 11/10 from 5/4 earlier today
6-10 stays at 9/4
Just watched Ross Thomson election broadcast from Moray on my twitter feed and it is a full on attack against her obsession with Independence
In the last two Westminet Elections Sturgeon repeatedly went out of her way to emphasise they were not about Independence. The other parties ceaselessly attacked her for being obsessed about independence.
This time by actually asking it about Independence Sturgeon is building a case for a 2020 referendum.
In effect it it is sidestepping the opposition who have been demanding a mandate from the 2021 Holyrood election as a precondition to an IndyRef. Now Sturgeon can derive one from this election.0 -
A new generation of young fogeys, I guess ?kle4 said:
Agreed. And even if one does not like them, I find it rather astonishing people get aggravated by such things.NickPalmer said:
I like them - gives a pleasant sense of light closure to each topic.Casino_Royale said:
Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.0 -
Farage is no fascist. Like Wossisname, he is a populist, but whilst populism is a necessary component of fascism, it is not in itself sufficient.Benpointer said:PeterC said:
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
You could have said the same about he-whom-Godwin's-law-prevents-us-from-mentioning but that never stopped him in 1930.PeterC said:
The shadow of Farage seems an ominous one today. But I wonder if the voters will reach the conclusion, albeit belatedly, that he is a self-obsessed crank.Casino_Royale said:Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?
He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.
I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.0 -
Of the current squad 15 State schools and 17 Private apparentlyStocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.0 -
Thanks, I might look into that.Stocky said:The_Taxman said:
"Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? "
I`ve read Chance Witness too - it`s his autobiography. And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.0 -
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?Foxy said:
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.0 -
Is the distinction an easy one to make? Aren't some a bit of both?Richard_Tyndall said:
Of the current squad 15 State schools and 17 Private apparentlyStocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.0 -
I see even Guido Fawkes summarises the first two days of the campaign as quiet for the Tories - I wonder what the first big story, in a positive way, will be for them. They will need something to make Farage's supporters feel they need to abandon the chap.0
-
I'm sure they had a Q and A without the minor party leaders. I recall Miliband almost falling off the stage. So not a debate but still the TV channels were happy just to have the big guns.Benpointer said:
No.Brom said:
Were there not direct Cameron and Miliband debates in 2015 when the Libs had way more seats than now? Seems like a tough argument to muscle her way in when there is plenty of precedent for just red vs blue.edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_debates0 -
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recentlyBrom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
Remain Alliance. The clue is in the name.kle4 said:
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?Foxy said:
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
Although the LDs were also the first major party to champion green issues, and both they and the Greens have political reform high on their agenda.0 -
"This might not last too long, so take it. Reasons, reasons were here from the start..."Sunil_Prasannan said:
"This is the song of little Joedmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1
She's not the girl I used to know"
h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhhYI8bdhfk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PebH4X097Lg0 -
Pluralism.Foxy said:
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.
So something both Labour and the Tories seem to have turned their backs on.
0 -
Who or what is Swampy?Charles said:
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recentlyBrom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
More to the point, why should eco-socialists partner with capitalist Tory lapdogs?kle4 said:
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?Foxy said:
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.0 -
Wouldn’t Nicola S have a fair claim to the title of “women leader of the strongest party of Remain”?edmundintokyo said:The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/11 -
+1. I'm a Parris fan too, but hadn't heard of this book. I've ordered it.The_Taxman said:
Thanks, I might look into that.Stocky said:And his other books too - I`m a bit of a fanboy when it comes to Parris.
Away from politics, his book "A Castle in Spain" is about a property that he stumbled upon whilst hiking in Northern Spain and ended up buying it with his family many years later. Turned out to be a money pit.
It`s now a hotel, run by Parris`s two sisters. I visited it a couple of years ago for a treat. Superb place, amazing location. L`Avenc de Tavertet if you`re interested.0 -
They all grow up in the end, except maybe Caroline Lucas. Greta Thunberg will probably be an accountant at 40.Charles said:
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recentlyBrom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0 -
Same happened to me. Stick with Vanilla.Benpointer said:Arrgh!!
Just had a repeat of the 'PB.com not showing comments' problem...
Cleared my last hour of history and problem fixed.
Annnoying.0 -
Both parties are internationalist, pro European, keen on rapid action on climate change, keen on local devolution, and pro electoral reform. We have a lot in common.kle4 said:
I though the LDs were relatively centrist, why would they partner with the Greens?Foxy said:
Lib Dems are far from a spent force. After 2015, I thought it would be decades to rebuild, but I think that most of that rebuild will be complete by this GE in terms of voteshare and seats. We will be in great position for the next election after this, and that could be as soon as next year.Brom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
Intrinsic to LD support for PR is a willingness to work with other parties, and Jo was explicit about this in her leadership campaign.
Indeed, I would be happy for joint LD/Green candidates to run.0 -
Interesting. The other side of the equation is what happened to May's ratings.Richard_Tyndall said:So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.
I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.
In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was
27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall
This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is
15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall
By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to
39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall
An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.
What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
April 56/37 for +19
Week before election 43/50 for -7
That's a deterioration in May's score of 26% over the same period.
So Corbyn moved from a 54 point deficit to a 4 point deficit relative to May.
Compare now to Johnson who currently sits on 46/44 for +2
So Johnson has a lead on this measure of 62 points on Corbyn, comparing to May's lead of 54 points.
If Corbyn closes the gap by the same amount, with Johnson's position deteriorating as May's did, then the gap between the two would narrow to 12 points. (This compares to a 17 point lead Cameron over Miliband, 15 point lead Blair over Howard, 11 point lead Major over Kinnock - it would almost certainly be enough for a small majority)
I think the 2017GE campaign was truly exceptional, and such large swings are unlikely - and of course it's not impossible they could move in the other direction if Johnson improves his ratings further. So even in a best case scenario for Corbyn, Johnson would probably still win a majority.
However, I do think that this is a clear area of risk for Johnson. His ratings were 37/55 for -18 in September for example. And Swinson is an unknown factor, just as Clegg was in 2010.2 -
Probably. The article I looked at was just listing them as either fee paying or free.Peter_the_Punter said:
Is the distinction an easy one to make? Aren't some a bit of both?Richard_Tyndall said:
Of the current squad 15 State schools and 17 Private apparentlyStocky said:"Around ten million watched the semi-final.
That’s an awful lot of poshos."
Would be interesting to know how many of the England squad attended private school as opposed to a state school. I suspect a high percentage.
I`d look it up if I could be bothered. I`m still pissed off about Farage.0 -
90s crusty protester of Newbury bypass fame if I recall correctlykle4 said:
Who or what is Swampy?Charles said:
Swampy is doing something sensible now - I forget what exactly but my mother commissioned some work from him recentlyBrom said:
Perhaps I don't believe like yourself the lib dems are a spent force. Not sure the people in the IOW will ever pick Swampy to represent them, strange move.Foxy said:
Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.Brom said:
Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greensIanB2 said:Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party
Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.0
