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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the turnout at the next general election

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  • kle4 said:

    Precisely. Even 3%, in the wrong places, will cost the government dearly.

    And there's no reason to do it other than to cost the Tories, who at this point are the only ones who will seek to Brexit, so it would be self defeating, but Farage does not care, and how many will he take with him?
    Farage is clear the deal is not Brexit. Nothing rules out Farages Brexit ever happening more than someone else delivering a different flavour Brexit before him. Not to mention the angle that has some truth in it, that without membership of the EU, Farages status and importance drops significantly.

    It is in his interests to stop the Tories.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    Because it will be in their own interests in many areas, if they care about stopping Brexit. It might be through gritted teeth, and the accusation they are mini Tories or the assumption it is their job to prop up Labour rather than their own party, will no doubt rankle them. But while there's no shame in having candidates in Lab/Tory marginals, in case something incredible happens, their voters will have to make a choice knowing Brexit will be stopped if they vote for Labour in those seats. Not all will be tactical. But lots will, never mind the lack of formal cooperation.
    The most obvious reason for calling them Tories is to deter Labour voters from switching to them and to persuade LD voters to switch to Labour.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    So what about the Ireland rugby team?
    Indeed!
  • justin124 said:

    The most obvious reason for calling them Tories is to deter Labour voters from switching to them and to persuade LD voters to switch to Labour.
    Does it ever work, or do they just assume the insulter is very tribal and a bully?
  • Brexit date on Betfair rules say:
    For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.

    How is this to be interpreted?
    If we crash out on 31 Oct 19 then that is a 'date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply', so no problem.

    If negotiating period is extended to 31 Jan 2020, then UK and all necessary EU bodies finish ratifying a deal on some date in December with Withdrawal bill saying treaties apply til 31 Dec 2020 and 72 Act has effect til 31/12/20 then what happens?

    It seems possible to me to say any one of 3 things:
    1. Negotiating period brought to a close early in Dec 19 and this is first to happen so Dec 19.
    2. Last negotiated extension is 31 Jan 20 and this is first of the events to happen so Jan 20.
    3. Nothing happens on 31 Jan 20 so it is a non event not an event or that it is the first date but it is not a 'date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply' (also note the "might occur' so not necessarily will occur). So winning date is Dec 2020.

    Betfair seem to be refusing to answer any differently than quoting the rules which doesn't answer my query. Which is correct or how do I find out?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Farage is clear the deal is not Brexit. Nothing rules out Farages Brexit ever happening more than someone else delivering a different flavour Brexit before him. Not to mention the angle that has some truth in it, that without membership of the EU, Farages status and importance drops significantly.

    It is in his interests to stop the Tories.

    It shouldn't be too difficult for the Tories to blunt TBP in seats where they may hold the balance.

    If the opposition are calling this deal a much harder version of Brexit than May's deal it should assuage those leavers enough for them to realise it is better to get 'a Brexit' than the 'purest Brexit'. Voters aren't dumb, they know the latter is not realistic.

    In the hard leave seats where the Tories are nowhere then don't get involved with the campaign and let TBP take on Labour in the hope there might be a shock or two.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Does it ever work, or do they just assume the insulter is very tribal and a bully?
    I am sure the Tory Helper label will help revive memories of the Coalition, and cause many to hesitate before switching to the LDs. It will be a case of 'There they go again!' and 'They are not to be trusted!'
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    Yes. Usually authorities worldwide trust each other's certifications, but the FAA have lost credibility now. There will be an international re-certification committee for the 737 Max, working independently of the FAA.
    I saw one airline had delayed putting the max back into its schedule until at least February next year - and according to the industry news I read they have negotiated compensation from Boeing for the extended period.
  • Tom Newton Dunn

    The plot thickens: No10 now reveals it wants to keep a one line bill option for an election on the table, with or without WAB passing, if FTPA motion fails on Monday. Not what Morgan and Cleverly were saying on broadcast this morning, so appears Cabinet v No10 split remains.
  • crandles said:

    Brexit date on Betfair rules say:
    For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.

    How is this to be interpreted?
    If we crash out on 31 Oct 19 then that is a 'date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply', so no problem.

    If negotiating period is extended to 31 Jan 2020, then UK and all necessary EU bodies finish ratifying a deal on some date in December with Withdrawal bill saying treaties apply til 31 Dec 2020 and 72 Act has effect til 31/12/20 then what happens?

    It seems possible to me to say any one of 3 things:
    1. Negotiating period brought to a close early in Dec 19 and this is first to happen so Dec 19.
    2. Last negotiated extension is 31 Jan 20 and this is first of the events to happen so Jan 20.
    3. Nothing happens on 31 Jan 20 so it is a non event not an event or that it is the first date but it is not a 'date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply' (also note the "might occur' so not necessarily will occur). So winning date is Dec 2020.

    Betfair seem to be refusing to answer any differently than quoting the rules which doesn't answer my query. Which is correct or how do I find out?

    Given the decision making and communication on the May exit date settlements I would be wary of any clarifications beyond caveat emptor.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Noo said:

    You know it's called that because it's sponsored by a company called "Principality", yes?
    And that said company was founded in 1860 -- older even than the modern Eisteddfod! Yes, "archaic" is probably close to the truth.
    You may have won this argument.
  • justin124 said:

    I am sure the Tory Helper label will help revive memories of the Coalition, and cause many to hesitate before switching to the LDs. It will be a case of 'There they go again!' and 'They are not to be trusted!'
    The lib dems are offering a clear message.

    Revoke A50 and that will see many labour remain supporters back them.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    kinabalu said:

    Not forgotten but rather not being dwelt upon.

    However, if this drags on into 2020, the question, "Hang on, this guy swore on his mother's grave that we would be out on 31 Oct LAST YEAR, that we could bank on it and bank on HIM" - this question will start to occur to more than a handful of people.
    I feel the damage from it went up in smoke when Boris came back with a deal. "We're not out and have no plan for doing so" is much more damaging than "Boris got a deal against the odds and still parliamemt is blocking it".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    nichomar said:

    I still think that we might wake up on 1/11 to find out we’ve left, no deal and this is all play acting to distract people from hunting down the Cummins loophole

    I pointed out to @isam a few days ago the large odds against that. I put some money on it as an insurance bet (ie it's not meant to be won) but given the large odds and short time I need to consider this closely.

    So here's my question for the PB Brains Trust.

    "...If (or when) the EU offers an extension this week, will Boris accept it? If he does not accept it, what will Parliament do?..."

    OK, two questions... :)
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Tom Newton Dunn

    The plot thickens: No10 now reveals it wants to keep a one line bill option for an election on the table, with or without WAB passing, if FTPA motion fails on Monday. Not what Morgan and Cleverly were saying on broadcast this morning, so appears Cabinet v No10 split remains.

    As I said earlier this is poor from Cummings, unless of course Morgan and Cleverly deliberately muddied the waters.

    It was clear last night when the LD/SNP plan was released that the Tories would need a unambiguous response.

    No10 need to sharpen up.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    'LDs and SNP in hock with the Tories' is a theme which could well play out to Labour's advantage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Tom Newton Dunn

    The plot thickens: No10 now reveals it wants to keep a one line bill option for an election on the table, with or without WAB passing, if FTPA motion fails on Monday. Not what Morgan and Cleverly were saying on broadcast this morning, so appears Cabinet v No10 split remains.

    No.10 have said many things and been proven liars mere hours later. Not spinning, lying. It's been relatively rare in politics to directly lie, but they have done it, so can be ignored.
  • viewcode said:

    I pointed out to @isam a few days ago the large odds against that. I put some money on it as an insurance bet (ie it's not meant to be won) but given the large odds and short time I need to consider this closely.

    So here's my question for the PB Brains Trust.

    "...If (or when) the EU offers an extension this week, will Boris accept it? If he does not accept it, what will Parliament do?..."

    OK, two questions... :)
    He will accept it. He has no choice and I think it suits him as well. Ideally for him it will be a short extension - 15 days or so - but even if it is to Jan 31st it still suits his plans.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Floater said:

    I saw one airline had delayed putting the max back into its schedule until at least February next year - and according to the industry news I read they have negotiated compensation from Boeing for the extended period.
    Yes it's still grounded everywhere, and likely to remain so for several more months. Boeing have been writing cheques and giving large discounts on future orders to keep airlines happy. They're close to having to stop the production lines as they're running out of space to store the planes that aren't allowed to fly away from the factory. It's estimated to have cost them between $5bn and $10bn so far, depending on who you ask.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    viewcode said:

    I pointed out to @isam a few days ago the large odds against that. I put some money on it as an insurance bet (ie it's not meant to be won) but given the large odds and short time I need to consider this closely.

    So here's my question for the PB Brains Trust.

    "...If (or when) the EU offers an extension this week, will Boris accept it? If he does not accept it, what will Parliament do?..."

    OK, two questions... :)
    If he declined, I am sure the Supreme Court would be invited to intervene with an Injunction. Proceedings against Johnson personally would doubtless follow.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    justin124 said:

    'LDs and SNP in hock with the Tories' is a theme which could well play out to Labour's advantage.

    In hock with the Tories... to have an election?

    I thought Labour wanted an election too?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    kle4 said:

    She has had so many rabbit in the headlight moments like that, but is still alive and kicking as a political force, I almost admire that.
    I am glad you added in 'almost' as there is nothing to admire about her. Nothing at all.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    justin124 said:

    'LDs and SNP in hock with the Tories' is a theme which could well play out to Labour's advantage.

    I doubt it. On the two key issues for each of those parties -- remaining in the EU and Scottish independence -- they are each diametrically opposed to the Conservatives.

    And Labour will want to focus on policy in any such election (should it happen), which means talking about things other than the process of achieving an election. I think the party that will be happiest talking about the election itself will be the Conservatives.
    People only have so much attention for what politicians are saying. Labour won't waste those moments talking about how we arrived at having an election.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So you can campaign against it, but as soon as you start becoming effective you are a traitor and need to be chucked out of the country? Got it!
    First in the context he was talking about hounding out of Parliament (ie losing their seats) rather than anything more dramatic

    Once again - to try and block the implementation of the referendum is anti democratic. To campaign to rejoin is legitimate.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    How do you define a new Hanseatic League because the original one has no relevance to the current reality?
    The Nordic, Baltic, German, Dutch and U.K. economies are much more aligned than the EU as a whole.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    You’re an expert on the shady ones ? :smile:
    I learned to recognise them so I can avoid them
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Charles said:

    First in the context he was talking about hounding out of Parliament (ie losing their seats) rather than anything more dramatic

    Once again - to try and block the implementation of the referendum is anti democratic. To campaign to rejoin is legitimate.

    In your opinion. It is not objective.

    The people trying to block the implementation of the referendum were ELECTED as REPRESENTATIVES after the referendum.

    Their actions are entirely consistent with democracy.

    And obviously Brexit is a stupid idea anyway.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I was always taught to vote for the candidate not the party. Someone taking a principled stand against whips for what they believe in is something I applaud and think parliament would be a far better place if MPs did this more regularly. (I accept this is nowadays a minority view and many people even think they are solely backing a party manifesto not an MP, others are just looking for a cypher for reflecting voters thoughts).

    I think it is in this spirt that they should be giving him a free run. I would have encouraged the same on other issues such as the David Davis by election on civil liberties.
    How sweet

    You still believe that Lib Dem’s do things out of principle. Is Father Christmas going to bring you something nice this year?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Noo said:

    I doubt it. On the two key issues for each of those parties -- remaining in the EU and Scottish independence -- they are each diametrically opposed to the Conservatives.

    And Labour will want to focus on policy in any such election (should it happen), which means talking about things other than the process of achieving an election. I think the party that will be happiest talking about the election itself will be the Conservatives.
    People only have so much attention for what politicians are saying. Labour won't waste those moments talking about how we arrived at having an election.
    I disagree there. It helps Labour with the Tory Little Helper message - and in Scotland the SNP would risk reving memories of how the party opened the door for Thatcher in March 1979 by backing the VNOC in the Callaghan Government.Labour's association with the Better Together campaign seriously damaged its standing with anti- Tory voters in Scotland. What the SNP is proposing here might reverse some of that.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    In your opinion. It is not objective.

    The people trying to block the implementation of the referendum were ELECTED as REPRESENTATIVES after the referendum.

    Their actions are entirely consistent with democracy.

    And obviously Brexit is a stupid idea anyway.
    You can't get through to them. They've been gaslit into a shrunken definition of "democracy" that literally excludes a political party standing for election on a policy platform they believe in. It's really quite tragic to watch.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Charles said:

    First in the context he was talking about hounding out of Parliament (ie losing their seats) rather than anything more dramatic

    Once again - to try and block the implementation of the referendum is anti democratic. To campaign to rejoin is legitimate.

    Would you agree it is antidemocratic for Johnson to seek to dissolve the 2017 Parliament? Is 2017 outdated, but 2016 gospel, because the City money men got the result they wanted in 2016?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508
    Charles said:

    How sweet

    You still believe that Lib Dem’s do things out of principle. Is Father Christmas going to bring you something nice this year?
    how obnoxious..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited October 2019
    Charles said:

    How sweet

    You still believe that Lib Dem’s do things out of principle. Is Father Christmas going to bring you something nice this year?
    To be fair, Mr C, one would be unlikely to stand for Parliament as a LibDem expecting to be able to seriously feather one's nest.
    I doubt even their memoirs would sell that well.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    PREDICTION

    Conservatives ~320 seats
    Labour ~240 seats
    SNP ~45 seats
    Lib Dems ~20 seats

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 42%
    Labour 37%
    Lib Dems 11%
    Brexit Party 4%
    SNP 3%
    Greens 2%

    Post-election prediction: another Tory minority govt, but Brexit still a complete mess with no solution able to pass Parliament.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    I disagree there. It helps Labour with the Tory Little Helper message - and in Scotland the SNP would risk reving memories of how the party opened the door for Thatcher in March 1979 by backing the VNOC in the Callaghan Government.Labour's association with the Better Together campaign seriously damaged its standing with anti- Tory voters in Scotland. What the SNP is proposing here might reverse some of that.
    I was living in Scotland during the last two elections, and I have to say I saw the "SNP helped Thatcher in!" line many times on social media, and I don't think it cut through at all. I mean, quite apart from the factual gaps in the narrative, and the fact that it didn't matter because the Conservatives were going to win a five months down the line anyway.
    Certainly, if you look at the actual 2015 and 2017 results, there's little evidence that whatever Labour was doing was very effective.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Charles said:

    How sweet

    You still believe that Lib Dem’s do things out of principle. Is Father Christmas going to bring you something nice this year?
    I see no evidence to suggest that any party is more or less principled than any other, even if we may think the principles they have are better or worse than anothers. The one thing we can say about most LD supporters is they are at least not just concerned with backing a winner who is very broadly aligned with their own views, since they know for a fact they aren't winning an election.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508

    To be fair, Mr C, one would be unlikely to stand for Parliament as a LibDem expecting to be able to seriously feather one's nest.
    I doubt even their memoirs would sell that well.
    Sadly that has usually been true, (assuming we are ignoring the orange booker abhoration).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SunnyJim said:

    Makes zero sense.

    What are they playing at?
    Because LD/SNP are game playing, the one line Bill is fraught with danger and the are enjoying hanging labour out to dry
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    abhoration

    :D
  • theakestheakes Posts: 959
    Looks like the Goivernment might now support the LIb Dem/SNP bill if their own motion fails, Labour might finally get their election then! Everyone would be happy!.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Charles said:

    Because LD/SNP are game playing, the one line Bill is fraught with danger and the are enjoying hanging labour out to dry
    Danger? Are you implying that the Conservatives have a bigger goal than a general election that will the thwarted by this one line bill? I genuinely can't think what the danger is, unless you mean they don't actually want an election.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508
    sorry, I meant abberation..
    :blush:

    Not sure what abhoration means
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Swinson is turning out much better than I expected, she has audacity and low cunning.

    Say what you like about her and Boris, it's good to finally have some decent players at the table.

    First time I’ve heard Boris described as “decent”. 😆
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    sorry, I meant abberation..
    :blush:

    Not sure what abhoration means

    No, no, I like "abhoration". Ought to be a word.
  • Noo said:

    I don't agree. Scottish independence is in part motivated by Scotland frequently getting governments it doesn't want. How often does that happen in England?
    That's not saying there's no case for it, just that one of the justifications is missing for England but present for Scotland.
    Are you sure?

    2005. More English voted for Conservatives than Labour but Labour got a majority. To be fair due to unequal seat and vote distributions Labour did win more English seats but still.

    2010 England voted a healthy Tory majority. Instead we got a coalition.

    2015 England voted a landslide Tory majority. Instead we had a fragile Tory majority.

    2017 England voted a healthy Tory majority. Instead we had a Tory minority.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Charles said:

    Because LD/SNP are game playing, the one line Bill is fraught with danger and the are enjoying hanging labour out to dry
    Agreed.
    Johnson sits very nicely this Sunday, with such a split opposition on how to stop a no deal Brexit.
  • But under the treaty defined rules for new accessions they would have to adopt both Schengen and the Euro. So a hard border with England.

    Mist in the Cheviots, England cut off.
    Indeed just as Sweden is obliged to adopt the Euro.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Noo said:

    No, no, I like "abhoration". Ought to be a word.
    You've been playing too much Scrabble. Amazing what words some players find!
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    Not sure what abhoration means

    When you hate loving something.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Indeed just as Sweden is obliged to adopt the Euro.
    Sweden was a member before the Euro was introduced.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Tom Newton Dunn

    The plot thickens: No10 now reveals it wants to keep a one line bill option for an election on the table, with or without WAB passing, if FTPA motion fails on Monday. Not what Morgan and Cleverly were saying on broadcast this morning, so appears Cabinet v No10 split remains.

    No, it appears Boris knows how to do spin, unlike May, i.e. lie through your teeth.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    SunnyJim said:

    When you hate loving something.
    Like a hate fuck?
  • Sweden was a member before the Euro was introduced.
    But not when the Maastricht Treaty was introduced which is why they lack an opt-out. They are every bit as 'treaty obliged' to join the Euro as new nations are.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Noo said:

    I was living in Scotland during the last two elections, and I have to say I saw the "SNP helped Thatcher in!" line many times on social media, and I don't think it cut through at all. I mean, quite apart from the factual gaps in the narrative, and the fact that it didn't matter because the Conservatives were going to win a five months down the line anyway.
    Certainly, if you look at the actual 2015 and 2017 results, there's little evidence that whatever Labour was doing was very effective.
    Some of that is very speculative. The 1979 election was held on 3rd May , and I have always felt that Callaghan failed in his duty to his party by failing to delay Polling Day to 7th June. Labour would have benefiited from the elapse of a further 5 weeks on from the Winter of Discontent , and - just as important - the election would have coincided with first direct elections to the European Parliament. At that time Labour was the mpre Eurosceptical party and would have gained from the EEC being a central campaign theme. Had Callaghan done that, the Tory lead of 7% on 3rd May might well have been circa 3% on 7th June. Instead of a Tory majority of 44 we might well have ended up with a Hung Parliament.I have never forgiven him for failing to do that.
    Re - ' SNP helped Thatcher in' I suspect that what the SNP is currently proposing will add credence and force to that message. It provides Labour with campaign amunition which would not otherwise be there.
  • Charles said:

    How sweet

    You still believe that Lib Dem’s do things out of principle. Is Father Christmas going to bring you something nice this year?
    I hope so!
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Are you sure?

    2005. More English voted for Conservatives than Labour but Labour got a majority. To be fair due to unequal seat and vote distributions Labour did win more English seats but still.

    2010 England voted a healthy Tory majority. Instead we got a coalition.

    2015 England voted a landslide Tory majority. Instead we had a fragile Tory majority.

    2017 England voted a healthy Tory majority. Instead we had a Tory minority.
    I don't find these examples very compelling. 2005 is problem of FPTP. If England had been independent, the result wouldn't have been different. 2010 yes, partially, but you still got a Conservative-led government. 2015, you got the government you voted for, 2017 you got the Conservative-led government.

    And that's the story with England. It usually gets (an approximation of) what it wants. It's very easy to come up with many examples in the past few elections -- in fact many elections going back decades -- where Scotland gets (an approximation of) the opposite of what it wants. Scotland is the moon as England is the Earth. The tidal of each of them affect the other but not equally; but whole direction of the moon's face is locked to where the Earth is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,769
    justin124 said:

    The most obvious reason for calling them Tories is to deter Labour voters from switching to them and to persuade LD voters to switch to Labour.
    You mean the communists... :smile:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,093
    There seems to be a bit of disagreement in no 10 over whether a post or pre Brexit election is better.

    I don’t think there’s a perfect outcome either way .

    Pre you can say the Commons in blocking Brexit, the only way to get it done is to give the Tories a majority .

    Post , we got it done but then mindful that this would allow Labour to fight just on domestic issues .

    Another thing what’s left of the Brexit Party vote, is that now more Labour Leavers in which case they get hurt more than the Tories.

  • Noo said:

    I don't find these examples very compelling. 2005 is problem of FPTP. If England had been independent, the result wouldn't have been different. 2010 yes, partially, but you still got a Conservative-led government. 2015, you got the government you voted for, 2017 you got the Conservative-led government.

    And that's the story with England. It usually gets (an approximation of) what it wants. It's very easy to come up with many examples in the past few elections -- in fact many elections going back decades -- where Scotland gets (an approximation of) the opposite of what it wants. Scotland is the moon as England is the Earth. The tidal of each of them affect the other but not equally; but whole direction of the moon's face is locked to where the Earth is.
    There is a world of difference between "Conservative led" and "Conservative majority" let alone healthy or landslide Tory majority which we haven't had in the UK since the 1987 General Election despite the English voting that way in 1992, 2010, 2015 and 2017.

    In 4 of the last 7 General Elections there has been a different result in the UK to England.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Yorkcity said:

    Agreed.
    Johnson sits very nicely this Sunday, with such a split opposition on how to stop a no deal Brexit.
    Yes but remember Boris does not want a no-deal Brexit either.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited October 2019

    There is a world of difference between "Conservative led" and "Conservative majority" let alone healthy or landslide Tory majority which we haven't had in the UK since the 1987 General Election despite the English voting that way in 1992, 2010, 2015 and 2017.

    In 4 of the last 7 General Elections there has been a different result in the UK to England.
    What you on about? The Tories only got 45% in England in 2017.

    There should be no expectation of any sort of majority when 55% are against you in England alone.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019


    There is a world of difference between "Conservative led" and "Conservative majority" let alone healthy or landslide Tory majority which we haven't had in the UK since the 1987 General Election despite the English voting that way in 1992, 2010, 2015 and 2017.

    In 4 of the last 7 General Elections there has been a different result in the UK to England.

    We can agree to disagree about the scale (I don't agree about "world of difference"), but I'm sure you can see that however you define the scale, the issue is much bigger for Scotland than for England.
    If you really think that "we voted for a Conservative landslide and only got a Conservative majority" is as big a problem as "we voted Labour and got Conservative", then I can't really say much more.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    What you on about? The Tories only got 45% in England in 2017.

    There should be no expectation of any sort of majority when 55% are against you in England alone.

    Yes, sadly there are two overlapping issues here, that of FPTP and that of whether it's a problem that a country votes one was and gets the "wrong" result.
    Personally I think PR would do a lot to solve both problems, but independence would only solve one of them.
  • What you on about? The Tories only got 45% in England in 2017.

    There should be no expectation of any sort of majority when 55% are against you in England alone.
    Thankfully we have First Past the Post not PR and long may it continue. England has 533 seats

    Conservatives 296 + 1 Speaker
    Opposition 236

    Effective Majority 61

    That should be a very healthy majority instead we got a minority.
  • Noo said:

    Yes, sadly there are two overlapping issues here, that of FPTP and that of whether it's a problem that a country votes one was and gets the "wrong" result.
    Personally I think PR would do a lot to solve both problems, but independence would only solve one of them.
    Personally I think FPTP is great and independence would solve the only problem.
  • But not when the Maastricht Treaty was introduced which is why they lack an opt-out. They are every bit as 'treaty obliged' to join the Euro as new nations are.
    This is what the European Commission says about the Economic and Monetary Policy acquis:

    "New Member States are also committed to complying with the criteria laid down in the Treaty in order to be able to adopt the euro in due course after accession. Until then, they will participate in the Economic and Monetary Union as a Member State with a derogation from the use of the euro and shall treat their exchange rates as a matter of common concern."

    On Schengen the Commission says, as part of the Justice, Freedom and security acquis:

    "The most detailed part of the EU’s policies on justice, freedom and security is the Schengen acquis, which entails the lifting of internal border controls in the EU. However, for the new Member States substantial parts of the Schengen acquis are implemented following a separate Council Decision to be taken after accession."

    The rules for that Council decision are set by the relevant accession treaty. For Bulgaria, for example, it had to be unanimous. But it is a matter of negotiation how this works in any particular case.

    See: https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis_en

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Thankfully we have First Past the Post not PR and long may it continue. England has 533 seats

    Conservatives 296 + 1 Speaker
    Opposition 236

    Effective Majority 61

    That should be a very healthy majority instead we got a minority.
    Ok what relevance does that have?
    The intention of the voters still stands.
    There should be no expectation of a majority on 45%.
  • Noo said:

    We can agree to disagree about the scale (I don't agree about "world of difference"), but I'm sure you can see that however you define the scale, the issue is much bigger for Scotland than for England.
    If you really think that "we voted for a Conservative landslide and only got a Conservative majority" is as big a problem as "we voted Labour and got Conservative", then I can't really say much more.
    The problem is the same, the scale is greater I agree, but its the same problem either way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,769

    Thankfully we have First Past the Post not PR and long may it continue. England has 533 seats

    Conservatives 296 + 1 Speaker
    Opposition 236

    Effective Majority 61

    That should be a very healthy majority instead we got a minority.
    So your definition of democracy is the system which gives you what you want.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Phil Hammond running scared on Sophy

    Going to stand as an Independent

    I wonder if his mum's alive. Going to really struggle for votes otherwise.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited October 2019

    Personally I think FPTP is great and independence would solve the only problem.
    You would because you’re a hypocrite and pick and choose what is democratic and what isn’t when it suits.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,093
    Corbyn moving the goalposts.

    Now says January extension won’t take no deal off the table . This is becoming ridiculous, the only way no deal comes off the table is if a government decides to and therefore you need an election to change the government to one which will rule that out.

    The fact he hates the Lib Dem and SNP plan though makes it easier for the Tories to agree to some form of a simple bill for an election.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    I'm sure in context, Dominic Cummings just meant drive the traitors out of the country who AREN'T Gina Miller.

    Be in no doubt. Their strategy is two handed. The left hand must pretend not to know the right. But a systemic campaign of death threats against Remain activists, including the murder of an MP, does not arise from nowhere.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Nigelb said:

    So your definition of democracy is the system which gives you what you want.
    Basically. He has no shame whatsoever.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    DavidL said:

    I wonder if his mum's alive. Going to really struggle for votes otherwise.
    The only people he will hurt by standing are the LibDems.

    Shame....
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Thankfully we have First Past the Post not PR and long may it continue. England has 533 seats

    Conservatives 296 + 1 Speaker
    Opposition 236

    Effective Majority 61

    That should be a very healthy majority instead we got a minority.
    Under PR we probably wouldn't have two main parties but 25 or so parties, as in the Finnish parliament.

    Paradoxically, they look strong and stable. We look so weak and wobbly that at present the EU despairs of us ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Yes but remember Boris does not want a no-deal Brexit either.
    But if No Deal happens, it won't be owned by him. It will be owned by those making the excuse of avoidig No Deal but allowing it to arise because they would not agree to a sensible course to prevent it.

    Jeremy Corbyn, No Deal facilitator.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Personally I think FPTP is great and independence would solve the only problem.
    Then you have to withdraw the 2005 "problem". Under FPTP, England voted Labour in 2005, and it got Labour.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited October 2019

    Phil Hammond running scared on Sophy

    Going to stand as an Independent

    One wonders why he is bothering?

    He must know he's got somewhere between Bob Hope and No Hope of winning as an independent and I'm sure he can make much more money in "private consultancy" ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    edited October 2019
    Noo said:

    Then you have to withdraw the 2005 "problem". Under FPTP, England voted Labour in 2005, and it got Labour.
    We'll worry about that when Labour gets another Tony Blair.

    I'm sure it is just round the corner with the current Labour Party. Althugh it will have to be an anti-semitic Tony Blair. Hmmm, I can see a problem......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    GIN1138 said:

    One wonders why he is bothering?

    He must know he got somewhere between Bob Hope and No Hope of winning as an independent and I'm sure he can make much more money in "private consultancy" ?
    Revenge may not be a likely outcome, but if he has a shot of preventing the party which cast him out from winning, why would he not take it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    nico67 said:

    Corbyn moving the goalposts.

    Now says January extension won’t take no deal off the table . This is becoming ridiculous, the only way no deal comes off the table is if a government decides to and therefore you need an election to change the government to one which will rule that out.

    I fear this is rapidly moving beyond Jezza's control...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    The UUP v DUP contest is heating up.

    https://twitter.com/bbctheview/status/1188432478496854018
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    But if No Deal happens, it won't be owned by him. It will be owned by those making the excuse of avoidig No Deal but allowing it to arise because they would not agree to a sensible course to prevent it.

    Jeremy Corbyn, No Deal facilitator.
    Believe that and you'll be blaming IDS for Iraq. Most voters will blame the government. Boris thinks so too, which is why he wants the election first or immediately afterwards before project fear turns out to have underplayed things.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    We'll worry about that when Labour gets another Tony Blair.

    I'm sure it is just round the corner with the current Labour Party. Althugh it will have to be an anti-semitic Tony Blair. Hmmm, I can see a problem......
    I'm not sure you've followed the thread of this conversation. The issue is not to do with the merits or otherwise of voting Labour now or in 2005.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Cummings running rings around everyone? :D


    https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1188444425619423232
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Believe that and you'll be blaming IDS for Iraq. Most voters will blame the government. Boris thinks so too, which is why he wants the election first or immediately afterwards before project fear turns out to have underplayed things.
    You aren't seeing how preposterous Labour look this weekend.

    No Deal is the terror that is supposedly stopping them agreeing an election. But they won't vote for a Deal that prevents that terror. Because that would reward Boris. Everybody knows it is bullshit. Instead of having a coherent Brexit policy, Labour run around making a noise that only dolphins can hear.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    You would because you’re a hypocrite and pick and choose what is democratic and what isn’t when it suits.
    Sounds like Jo Swinson, tbh
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Noo said:

    I'm not sure you've followed the thread of this conversation. The issue is not to do with the merits or otherwise of voting Labour now or in 2005.
    I've followed that you hate acknowledging that only Tony Blair got Labour power since 1974.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,093
    GIN1138 said:

    I fear this is rapidly moving beyond Jezza's control...
    You mean like most of his leadership ! The latest election avoidance is becoming desperate .

    Labour Remainers need to realize that Corbyn wants the deal to go through because his actions are going to lead to a short extension.

    The Labour MPs who are pro EU are seemingly more worried about saving their seats than stopping Brexit.

    I’m sick of the lot of them , I’ll be voting Lib Dem even though I’m uncomfortable with their revoke policy . And will still vote Lib Dem even if Brexit happens .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    Believe that and you'll be blaming IDS for Iraq. Most voters will blame the government. Boris thinks so too, which is why he wants the election first or immediately afterwards before project fear turns out to have underplayed things.
    Actually, IDS does bear some responsibility for Iraq. If he’d backed Charlie Kennedy’s position instead of being a gung-ho warmonger, Blair might just have paused.
  • GIN1138 said:

    One wonders why he is bothering?

    He must know he's got somewhere between Bob Hope and No Hope of winning as an independent and I'm sure he can make much more money in "private consultancy" ?
    You get the exit payment if you stand and lose, but I would have assumed he didn't really need the money.

    Perhaps he's hoping to soak up enough votes to squeeze the Con candidate's vote, and let the LD or Lab candidate in.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    GIN1138 said:

    One wonders why he is bothering?

    He must know he's got somewhere between Bob Hope and No Hope of winning as an independent and I'm sure he can make much more money in "private consultancy" ?
    Don’t MPs get a much better pension if they’re below state retirement age and they lose their seat rather than chose not to run again.
  • ‘Cancel Brexit, it’ll piss off the French’ will see support for revocation hit 95% and allow the UK to unite and heal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Sweden was a member before the Euro was introduced.
    But it didn’t negotiate an opt-out from the Euro like the UK and Denmark did, so is bound to join the Euro. However, to qualify to join the Euro, it has to join the ERM first, and it is not bound to join the ERM. I dare say an Indy Scotland could figure out a similar fudge for Schengen if it wanted to.
  • Ok what relevance does that have?
    The intention of the voters still stands.
    There should be no expectation of a majority on 45%.
    Of course there should be no expectation of a majority on 45% if another party gets 49% say then the 49% would get a majority. But that's not the case, we DID elect a majority of Tories - 296 out of 532 excluding Speaker were elected Tory whether you like it or not.
This discussion has been closed.