politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s striking about the Maria Miller polling is that CON
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JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces0
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Just seen the Marr chat with Darling. Darling had the air of a man who thinks he is losing.SeanT said:
I think the fall-out from Scottish independence will dominate the remaining political lives of most people on pb. So we may not care about it, but it matters enormously.MarqueeMark said:
Alternatively, he will be seen in England as the guy that arranged a fond farewell for all those chippy Scots.SeanT said:
Cameron would be the PM that lost the Union (when he could have offered Devomax, saved the Union, and scuppered Labour simultaneously - Derrr)
He would have to resign, surely....
There'll be a statue of him in every English market square.
Really, does "the Union" resonate with more than about 0.1% of the population these days?
It won't be the swift amicable divorce Salmond promises, it will be acrimonious and chaotic as indivisible things are divided, from military assets to offshore waters, as the constitution is hurled into anarchy, as the Tories assume a (temporary) hegemony as Labour deal with their wounded, as the EU question races up the agenda (if Scotland can vote to leave the EU, England can surely vote to leave the EU). Then Wales will seek Devomax (further damaging Labour btw). On and on and on.
The dissolution of a 300 year old state, once seen as a global paragon of stability, will not be a done deal in 18 months. It will be shockingly complex and turbulent, and the arguments will be tedious, fretful and prolonged.
On the upside for most rightwingers it will make Tory victories much easier, and a eurosceptic exit (Engxit?), much more likely. Eventually Scotland will become more rightwing, too (of necessity).
I see no upside for lefties.
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You have got to be joking, certainly the only way NO would get a crowd would be if they were paid and bussed in and that would go down very well indeed. That would ensure a YES vote by a big margin.HYUFD said:MalcolmG In 1 poll, and NO still leads even if DKs given to YES. As I said, the Quebec scenario was worst case, Times poll recently had it 52-37 NO, but Quebec still voted NO even with big YES gains before the poll. No complacency, but I would certainly support a big NO unity rally as happened in Quebec with people from across the UK travelling to Scotland to back the Union as Canadians rallied in Quebec
Polls since the start of the year have all been showing the same trend and we are now down to a single digit gap which is narrowing each month.0 -
The rest of the UK media stands and falls on market competition, not a forced subsidy from the rest of us. And the BBC represents a far, far larger share of news output than the rest combined.compouter2 said:
I do chuckle when the Hodges moan about BBC bias. Like the rest of the UK media is really balanced out and the UK papers and Sky are all divided in their approach to politics.TCPoliticalBetting said:Usual BBC idea of balance on Sunday politics show with its resident hacks. Guardian, New statesman and FT. How do 2 left leaning papers vs 1 on the right equate to balance? Of course the Guardian is the most read paper for BBC staff....
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If those regions want Independence, and a referendum showed that, why shouldn't they have it?HYUFD said:SeanT As said below Scots' independence would make virtually no difference to Labour, they would require an additional 1% swing to win according to Curtice. However, it would be a huge blow to the UK and encourage separatist movements across the UK, from Catalonia and the Basque country, to Quebec, Flanders, Venice, the old Soviet Union and maybe even parts of China and Texas, creating global instability
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Which polls are those?HYUFD said:Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO.
Quebec referendum not a good example from your pov, No-Yes 2-1 3 months before referendum, statistical tie at actual referendum. Feel free to travel up for a love bombing though!HYUFD said:A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada
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Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21malcolmg said:
Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.HYUFD said:Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada
Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14
Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero0 -
Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.JackW said:
Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.Stuart_Dickson said:
Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.compouter2 said:Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.
Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!
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Likely because so many witless BritNats and posh twerps were running around shrieking triumphantly about Osbrowne's currency posturing for weeks. They look even more stupid and gullible than usual now. Quite an accomplishment considering how laughable their judgement is on everything else as well.Stuart_Dickson said:
Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.compouter2 said:Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.
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It is becoming a real problem that only polling that is deemed good for the Tories is discussed (although much of that discussion is vainglorious screeching). It would be good to hear some analysis on why and how Labour have recovered a decent lead in a week. I dare say Labourites on here do stick around to discuss tightening of polling, so why the wall of silence from their opponents? @SeanT could once have been relied upon to troll the thread on the light of a bad Tory poll, by calling for high-level resignations. He needs to get back on it.Stuart_Dickson said:
Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.compouter2 said:Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.
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These were the 2013 local election results for pretty much the same area:edmundintokyo said:
OuchMillsy said:Liberal Democrat – 8 (-22)
Shepway / Folkestone & Hythe:
Con: 8,368
UKIP: 8,265
Lab: 3,259
LD: 2,543
Green: 2,216
Others: 9730 -
September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."MarkSenior said:
Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21malcolmg said:
Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.HYUFD said:Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada
Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14
Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero
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Next you will be wanting tanks on the streets to stop the world becoming unstable. It will mean nothing to Labour but de-stabilise the world, you are obviously not playing with a full deck.HYUFD said:SeanT As said below Scots' independence would make virtually no difference to Labour, they would require an additional 1% swing to win according to Curtice. However, it would be a huge blow to the UK and encourage separatist movements across the UK, from Catalonia and the Basque country, to Quebec, Flanders, Venice, the old Soviet Union and maybe even parts of China and Texas, creating global instability
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Excluding DK , No is between 8% ahead ( Panelbase ) and 22% ahead ( Yougov ) or 28% ahead ( Ipsos Mori ) .Sean_F said:
Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.JackW said:
Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.Stuart_Dickson said:
Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.compouter2 said:Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.
Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!0 -
No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.RochdalePioneers said:To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!
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Obviously. There would then have to be an ACTUAL scottish labour party rather than a theoretical one. Once those ties were finally severed you can be certain that rUK labour would then move very quickly indeed to becoming Blairites on steroids relentlessly triangulating on the marginals particularly in the south. It's not as if little Ed is some kind of 'moral crusader' with any kind of values or beliefs to stop him. So he would have no qualms whatsoever in going full Blue Labour.Theuniondivvie said:
Actually, if there is a Yes vote I could see there being a big sigh of relief in certain parts of the Labour party (let's call them Blairites for convenience). They can discard that increasingly itchy 'Labour values' fig leaf and get on with constructing the centrist & managerialist party that they think will win if for them in the marginals.edmundintokyo said:
I think the reason nobody's taking the point beyond the 40 seats seriously is that there's not much of a point there. Historically Scotland was important, but looking at the current Shadow Cabinet there are hardly any Scots in important jobs at all, which is presumably why you had to phrase them as "two of the brightest stars in today’s Shadow Cabinet", since you couldn't say anything concrete like "two of the most important people in today's Shadow Cabinet". As somebody said on the last thread the vote share there isn't exceptionally high either. Barring some kind of hidden mystical on-going dependence on the psychic energy of Donald Dewar, there's no obvious trauma.SeanT said:As YES looms closer, I see lefties are finally panicking. Someone on the last thread yet again trotted out the canard that Labour would be fine without 40 Scottish seats.
For the last time, IT'S NOT JUST THE SEATS
Losing the MPs would be bad for the Left, but losing everything else Scotland represents would be worse. As the man said:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100265140/without-scotland-labour-will-be-mutilated-and-traumatised-for-a-generation/
It would take Labour 15-20 years to recover from YES. The end result would be a Labour Party, and a rUK, further to the right. Denying this is futile, and revealing.
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True , but that was a dodgy poll from this "respected pollster" with leading questions asked prior to the VI question . Nothing of course to do with the poll being paid for by the SNPMonikerDiCanio said:
September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."MarkSenior said:
Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21malcolmg said:
Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.HYUFD said:Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada
Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14
Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero0 -
You need a reality check , the UK could not beat a few Taliban, the UK is now heading to be a 3rd rate military power if not already there.HYUFD said:JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces
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In 2009 UKIP did better in the West Midlands than the East, which was a reversal of the situation in 2004 when Kilroy Silk was making waves.FrankBooth said:What's happened to the East Midlands? Didn't Kilroy Silk stand in Erewash because it had the largest Ukip vote in 2004? Is there potential for Ukip there. Incidentally it's about the furthest away from the sea you can get in this country (actually Derbyshire). If not Erewash, how about neighbouring marginal constituency with a pinko Tory candidate - Broxtowe, or perhaps that's wishful thinking.
The village of Coton in the Elms is the furthest point from the sea in the UK. It's about a ten minute drive from where I'm sitting at the moment. Played cricket there once.0 -
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Some people like fetid, corrupt swamps.HurstLlama said:
No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.RochdalePioneers said:To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2563060/Judge-labels-Sean-Connery-ignorant-law-vows-investigate-actors-wife-fraud-absolves-wrongdoing.html0 -
How did calamity Clegg's EU and leadership master strategy go BTW?
roadto326 @roadto326 4h
YouGov leader ratings:- Cameron (-10) Miliband (-34) Clegg (-51) Farage (+25)
No doubt Clegg's amusing ostrich faction of inept spinners can claim it's a dodgy poll.
LOL0 -
Damian Thompson ✔ @holysmoke
Ex-addict Sean Thomas has taken heroin, crack, opium, LSD, ecstasy & hashish. But it's cigarettes he wants banned http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100266528/lets-ban-smoking-it-makes-you-smell-cough-look-old-get-sick-and-its-the-most-boring-drug-experience-ever/ …
Let's ban smoking. It makes you smell, cough, look old, get sick – and it's the most boring drug experience ever
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100266528/lets-ban-smoking-it-makes-you-smell-cough-look-old-get-sick-and-its-the-most-boring-drug-experience-ever/
Would you call Mr Thompson your boss sean ;-)0 -
Bob, good to see at least one person on here has a backbone , SeanT as well has been calling it right recently also.BobaFett said:@MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.
Unionists trying to kid on all is well are deluded. They should watch Darling on Marr and then be able to say honestly , does he look like a winner.0 -
keep on kidding yourself all is well, YES vote and Lib Dems wiped out at next election for sure.MarkSenior said:
True , but that was a dodgy poll from this "respected pollster" with leading questions asked prior to the VI question . Nothing of course to do with the poll being paid for by the SNPMonikerDiCanio said:
September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."MarkSenior said:
Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21malcolmg said:
Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.HYUFD said:Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada
Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14
Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero0 -
Little chance of that happily. Many of the people in charge of the NO strategy are the same ones who were in charge of SLAB's 2011 'triumph'. What did they do when the polls were narrowing? Double down on the negativity. Which worked a treat, just not for them. They are incapable of learning from their mistakes or proceeding any other way.BobaFett said:@MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.
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He isnt a LondonerAlanbrooke said:0 -
Oh I know, he's a Notherner who turned invertebrate in Southern softness ;-)isam said:
He isnt a LondonerAlanbrooke said:0 -
It'll be interesting to see if UKIP can beat the LDs in London in the Euro elections.0
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TUD Quebec was a worst case scenario, YES gained 6 points over the campaign and still lost as they would in Scotland with such a gain
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21600116-scottish-nationalists-are-made-teflon-nothing-sticks0 -
We'd certainly punch below our present weight and I've always felt Scotland within the Union brings more to the party than its sheer numbers justify.HYUFD said:JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces
Further you are correct the Scottish regiment will be a great loss but in the round the sheer clout of England will continue to ensure they remain a significant second tier economic and political power.
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MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that0
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MickPork The SNP were already in charge in Scotland before the 2011 election and Labour had been trounced the year before, that is not a valid comparison, and Salmond can be pretty negative too when he wants to0
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I know it is v difficult to gauge but if you could find out how white British people who were educated in London voted, I would think UKIP would clean up.RodCrosby said:
Strangely, UKIP fell back in London last time...AndyJS said:It'll be interesting to see if UKIP can beat the LDs in London in the Euro elections.
I tried to get a bet with tim on it, but we couldn't agree t's & c's
"Immigrants" to London from other parts of the country are generally lefty types who love the "vibrant, diverse communities" precisely because they don't think of it as home0 -
On this we disagree Sean. YES is as "done" as a fine Scottish kipper - somewhat like that other Scottish kipper - the former Ukip leader north of the border - much admired by our very own OGH.Sean_F said:
Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.JackW said:
Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.Stuart_Dickson said:
Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.compouter2 said:Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.
Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!
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MalcolmG Those are the facts, it would have little real impact on Labour's electoral chances but be a huge boost to global separatist movements0
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Have you lived there? I have previously lived for 10 years in 4 countries and visited many of the others. Most, apart from basket cases such as Venezuela, have improved over the years.HurstLlama said:
+0RochdalePioneers said:To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!
No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.
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No, the Quebec campaign was 3 months - the Economist piece states 'The “yes” campaign gained 6% in the final two months of the campaign; it only just lost.'HYUFD said:TUD Quebec was a worst case scenario, YES gained 6 points over the campaign and still lost as they would in Scotland with such a gain
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21600116-scottish-nationalists-are-made-teflon-nothing-sticks
'Early polls indicated that 67% of Quebecers would vote "No"'
http://tinyurl.com/px7zhx9
I'll happily take 6 points on top of whatever Yes is polling on 18/07/14.
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You have to take account of the "PR" electoral system, which this time could operate brutally against the LibDems.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Last time I looked at the betting markets their expectation was 2 LD MEPs. I would expect defenestration if the LDs were down to 1 or 0 MEPs. 5+ seems safe but is the ST article based on any internal LD views?MarqueeMark said:Interesting piece in the Sunday Times about the possible defenestration of Clegg. The threshold being spoken of for his survival is 5-6 Euro seats. That looked to be setting the high jump bar at about 28 feet....
Irrespective of seats won, I would say 10%+ of the vote would be 'good' result, and below 8% a dire one...0 -
TFS Well they are all examples of elite YES backers are they not0
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Yes and thanks to the USA which paid a heavy price for it. We will see how good it is in a few years when the western troops have left with their tails between their legs. Only 15 % of polling stations closed due to lack of security. Taliban will eb back in control in short order.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
Sure we played a major part on Bin Laden as well, NOT.0 -
It's not valid because Cammie couldn't even win a majority so your 'trounced' is amusing nonsense for a start. I was there, I know what labour were campaigning on and they were full on negative and anti-independence. They were also well ahead in the polls months before the result so if there was any backlash from 2010 it had self-evidently evaporated long before the campaign.HYUFD said:MickPork The SNP were already in charge in Scotland before the 2011 election and Labour had been trounced the year before, that is not a valid comparison
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I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:
Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/panelbase-wings-poll-shows-narrow-but-unchanged-no-lead/0 -
Yes and Clegg could be lucky or unlucky with the d'hondt system shares. But I do not think he will be judged by the % but by the number of MEPs.RodCrosby said:
You have to take account of the "PR" electoral system, which this time could operate brutally against the LibDems.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Last time I looked at the betting markets their expectation was 2 LD MEPs. I would expect defenestration if the LDs were down to 1 or 0 MEPs. 5+ seems safe but is the ST article based on any internal LD views?MarqueeMark said:Interesting piece in the Sunday Times about the possible defenestration of Clegg. The threshold being spoken of for his survival is 5-6 Euro seats. That looked to be setting the high jump bar at about 28 feet....
Irrespective of seats won, I would say 10%+ of the vote would be 'good' result, and below 8% a dire one...
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MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers0
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Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.
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A trend Curtice had been trying to deny for months hilariously enough. Not that Curtice covered himself in glory in 2011 either come to that. You have to feel sorry for the scottish tory surgers, All that gullible shrieking over Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.CarlottaVance said:I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:
Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.
LOL
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There have been a number of comments on the last Quebec referendum in 1995 narrowly lost by YES but the first vote in May 1980 was decisively won by NO by 60/40 :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_19800 -
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
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London region, 2009 Euro election:
Con 27.4%
Lab 21.3%
LD 13.7%
Green 10.9%
UKIP 10.8%
BNP 4.9%
Christian 2.9%
Ind 2.9%
Eng Dem 1.4%
No2EU 1.0%0 -
Quite. And as the media are almost 100% unionist, one wonders how many people there are such as Alastair Gray who are pro-independence - but who weren't controversial or spinnable as controversial (as in his case) and so got quietly forgotten. [edited to resolve ambiguity]Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
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so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
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I'm surprised by those London figures - about 20% voted for either UKIP or parties whose voters might plausibly defect to the party this time.0
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Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.0
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No one ever wins in Afghanistan, particularly the Afghans themselves.
Helmand was a fairly quiet province until we took it on. It was the presence of UK and US troops that became the recruiting Sergeant for the Taliban.
The way to win is soft power: smartphones, internet and Hindi movies. Cheap chinese finery and Japanese cars. Radical Islam is a reaction against the modern world. The way to defeat it is through consumerism and easy communication. It is much harder to convince the poor and ignorant that fundamentalist Islam is right when they can see that life is so much better without it. It is the slow spread of these things that will have more effect than military force.TwistedFireStopper said:
Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.0 -
New Labour candidate for St Helens South, Marie Rimmer:
http://moderngov.sthelens.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=1460 -
How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?TwistedFireStopper said:
Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.0 -
Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
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Did you read your cut and paste, "the two to three point increase in YES support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months".CarlottaVance said:I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:
Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/panelbase-wings-poll-shows-narrow-but-unchanged-no-lead/
It states exactly what I have said today , the trend is to YES even that great unionist Curtice is promoting it.0 -
I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.Carnyx said:
Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.Mick_Pork said:
How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?TwistedFireStopper said:
Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.0 -
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
At 68 (in May 2015) she would be the second-oldest woman ever to enter parliament, narrowly missing Ethel Bentham's record from 1929...AndyJS said:New Labour candidate for St Helens South, Marie Rimmer:
http://moderngov.sthelens.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=146
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That's because it's interesting i.e. not boring. Doesn't make true, though.BobaFett said:
It is becoming a real problem that only polling that is deemed good for the Tories is discussed (although much of that discussion is vainglorious screeching).Stuart_Dickson said:compouter2 said:
Perhaps you should stop focussing on leads and concentrate on levels.BobaFett said:
It would be good to hear some analysis on why and how Labour have recovered a decent lead in a week.Stuart_Dickson said:compouter2 said:
UKIP had a great last week:
First gay "marriages"
Tory MP and rent boy
Channel 4 documentary on Farage.
Farage wiping the floor with Clegg in the debate
Miller and Cameron doing their absolute best to make the Tory Party look corrupt.
Incidentally, isn't it great to see the gay community rush to Miller's aid in her hour of need in gratitude for introducing gay "marriage"? Most touching.
0 -
I don't think his experience is unique. Lots of people are getting on-line abuse from the partisan whether it's blokes at bus companies or tennis players. In truth it was always going to be where it ended up as Salmond is simply putting a fissure through Scotland.Carnyx said:
Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
Yeah. You don't think the sponsorship money might have something to do with it ?.malcolmg said:
Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
The Taliban certainly didn't care too much about elections before but they may not even need a civil war if Kabul is just a fig leaf. Those elected may quite possibly end up doing the bidding of those with the guns and the real power elsewhere. Iraq had an immeasurably stronger apparatus of governance already in place even after the carnage. In Afghanistan it's simply not there and would take many more decades to build up. It will not end well and never was going to end well.TwistedFireStopper said:I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.
Mick_Pork said:
How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?TwistedFireStopper said:
Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.0 -
It's a bit surreal, seeing grown men bicker over which celebrity hasbeen supports your side. If that's the level it's come down to, I can't wait for it to be over, and Yes win.0
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Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.0 -
Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.AndyJS said:Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.
But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...
More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.
(No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)
0 -
Malcolm G Billy Connolly has made pro union comments, but has said he will accept whatever the result. Other pro independence backers are comedians Frankie Boyle, Hardeep Singh Kohli, Greg Hemphill, Robert Florence and Brian Limond. But the irony is while the many Scottish expats in London and further afield will not get a vote, English living in Scotland will0
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Only 100%, but he is so rich now it should be irrelevant. He should be buying a house and getting up here to vote, still plenty of time to register.Alanbrooke said:
Yeah. You don't think the sponsorship money might have something to do with it ?.malcolmg said:
Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
He explicitly mad ethat point IIRC - but he also explained that Britnat abuse was a major reason, and that was in a feature piece in the Daily Mail. Not your average nat medium.MonikerDiCanio said:
I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.Carnyx said:
Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
JackW True, but it would still be a blow0
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I believe he prefers to style himself The Reverend Campbell.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
0 -
the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.Carnyx said:
Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.AndyJS said:Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.
But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...
More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.
(No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)
what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.0 -
MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
0 -
TUD As with Scotland you can pick which poll you want, earlier independence polls have had similar big NO leads or much tighter, but the gains over the campaign were still not enough for a YES0
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Can you explain why they should get a vote on Scotland when they do not live there. This is a vote for people who have chosen to live in Scotland, if they want a vote get back up here to live.HYUFD said:Malcolm G Billy Connolly has made pro union comments, but has said he will accept whatever the result. Other pro independence backers are comedians Frankie Boyle, Hardeep Singh Kohli, Greg Hemphill, Robert Florence and Brian Limond. But the irony is while the many Scottish expats in London and further afield will not get a vote, English living in Scotland will
0 -
It is shameful, isn't it?
Granted, Afghanistan wasn't the best country in the World, before Bush and Blair decided to act out their World police fantasies, but it's guaranteed to be a bloodbath after we go home. Lots of old scores to be settled, centuries of tribal tension to be vented. People who supported the West, left to fend for themselves.
Makes you wonder how Blair sleeps at night.Mick_Pork said:
The Taliban certainly didn't care too much about elections before but they may not even need a civil war if Kabul is just a fig leaf. Those elected may quite possibly end up doing the bidding of those with the guns and the real power elsewhere. Iraq had an immeasurably stronger apparatus of governance already in place even after the carnage. In Afghanistan it's simply not there and would take many more decades to build up. It will not end well and never was going to end well.TwistedFireStopper said:I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.
Mick_Pork said:
How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?TwistedFireStopper said:
Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.HYUFD said:MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
We haven't won in Afghan.0 -
I think you'll find he's only playing your own logic back to you.Carnyx said:MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.0 -
For some bizarre reason little Ed and calamity Clegg's spinners really do seem to latch on to that one in particular. They simply don't get it which just makes it all the more amusing.Carnyx said:I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners
Long may they continue, it's priceless stuff.
0 -
Bit too right wing and dodgy salutes for Nats.Carnyx said:
He explicitly mad ethat point IIRC - but he also explained that Britnat abuse was a major reason, and that was in a feature piece in the Daily Mail. Not your average nat medium.MonikerDiCanio said:
I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.Carnyx said:
Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.Alanbrooke said:
so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.Theuniondivvie said:
Connolly has declined to express an opinion.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
0 -
You mean the intervention that drove rUK opinion on a currency union from "evenly split" to "2:1 against"?Mick_Pork said:
Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.CarlottaVance said:I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:
Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.
Clearly, "A Victory for Eck"!
Titters.....
0 -
Sorry if it upset you. I was trying to be factual and neutral but it is certainly what I have been told and what I have heard from my friend and the impression I get from reading in the paper. Perhaps my terminology would have been better "anti-immigrant" discourse. But others can judge better than me which is more accurate. I did also note the different experiences (at least in recent years).Alanbrooke said:
the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.Carnyx said:
Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.AndyJS said:Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.
But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...
More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.
(No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)
what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.
0 -
MalcolmG Even before 9/11 the Taleban could not control all of Afghanistan. Abdullah Abdullah and Ghani, the leading candidates, are much stronger figures than Karzai and will have a big mandate, unlike Karzai they have also agreed to sign for backing from a residual NATO force0
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Good luck to him, he can call himself what he wants.MonikerDiCanio said:
I believe he prefers to style himself The Reverend Campbell.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.0 -
You mean malcolmg's " logic", he said he didn't give a toss about the opinions of people not resident in Scotland. Inevitably he contradicted himself within minutes.Carnyx said:MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
0 -
Terrible backlash!! *shriek!*CarlottaVance said:
You mean the intervention that drove rUK opinion on a currency union from "evenly split" to "2:1 against"?Mick_Pork said:
Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.CarlottaVance said:I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:
Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.
Clearly, "A Victory for Eck"!
Titters.....
Titters..0 -
MickPork Only because of Clegg, the Labour total was its lowest since 19830
-
Met police??Alanbrooke said:
the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.Carnyx said:
Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.AndyJS said:Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.
But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...
More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.
(No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)
what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.0 -
My own logic? Where?Alanbrooke said:
I think you'll find he's only playing your own logic back to you.Carnyx said:MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.malcolmg said:
Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.MonikerDiCanio said:
So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
I'd read anything with interest from anywhere if it is well informed, germane and has something useful to contribute.
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Arsenal is heading for another Wenger defeat.
I say Wenger because for the last 4 years his managerial skills have been in steep decline.
Arsenal is now paying the price for misguided loyalty to a man way past his sell by date.
I write this as a 7+ decade supporter of Arsenal.0 -
But what about Cumming who desperately wants to vote - bought a flat to qualify - but sadly can't? (As some of us pointed out at the time....) And after you assured us all that he would be able to vote too.....malcolmg said:
Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.HYUFD said:MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
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