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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:


    Cameron would be the PM that lost the Union (when he could have offered Devomax, saved the Union, and scuppered Labour simultaneously - Derrr)

    He would have to resign, surely....

    Alternatively, he will be seen in England as the guy that arranged a fond farewell for all those chippy Scots.

    There'll be a statue of him in every English market square.

    Really, does "the Union" resonate with more than about 0.1% of the population these days?
    I think the fall-out from Scottish independence will dominate the remaining political lives of most people on pb. So we may not care about it, but it matters enormously.

    It won't be the swift amicable divorce Salmond promises, it will be acrimonious and chaotic as indivisible things are divided, from military assets to offshore waters, as the constitution is hurled into anarchy, as the Tories assume a (temporary) hegemony as Labour deal with their wounded, as the EU question races up the agenda (if Scotland can vote to leave the EU, England can surely vote to leave the EU). Then Wales will seek Devomax (further damaging Labour btw). On and on and on.

    The dissolution of a 300 year old state, once seen as a global paragon of stability, will not be a done deal in 18 months. It will be shockingly complex and turbulent, and the arguments will be tedious, fretful and prolonged.

    On the upside for most rightwingers it will make Tory victories much easier, and a eurosceptic exit (Engxit?), much more likely. Eventually Scotland will become more rightwing, too (of necessity).

    I see no upside for lefties.

    Just seen the Marr chat with Darling. Darling had the air of a man who thinks he is losing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG In 1 poll, and NO still leads even if DKs given to YES. As I said, the Quebec scenario was worst case, Times poll recently had it 52-37 NO, but Quebec still voted NO even with big YES gains before the poll. No complacency, but I would certainly support a big NO unity rally as happened in Quebec with people from across the UK travelling to Scotland to back the Union as Canadians rallied in Quebec

    You have got to be joking, certainly the only way NO would get a crowd would be if they were paid and bussed in and that would go down very well indeed. That would ensure a YES vote by a big margin.
    Polls since the start of the year have all been showing the same trend and we are now down to a single digit gap which is narrowing each month.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Usual BBC idea of balance on Sunday politics show with its resident hacks. Guardian, New statesman and FT. How do 2 left leaning papers vs 1 on the right equate to balance? Of course the Guardian is the most read paper for BBC staff....

    I do chuckle when the Hodges moan about BBC bias. Like the rest of the UK media is really balanced out and the UK papers and Sky are all divided in their approach to politics.
    The rest of the UK media stands and falls on market competition, not a forced subsidy from the rest of us. And the BBC represents a far, far larger share of news output than the rest combined.
  • HYUFD said:

    SeanT As said below Scots' independence would make virtually no difference to Labour, they would require an additional 1% swing to win according to Curtice. However, it would be a huge blow to the UK and encourage separatist movements across the UK, from Catalonia and the Basque country, to Quebec, Flanders, Venice, the old Soviet Union and maybe even parts of China and Texas, creating global instability

    If those regions want Independence, and a referendum showed that, why shouldn't they have it?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO.

    Which polls are those?
    HYUFD said:

    A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada

    Quebec referendum not a good example from your pov, No-Yes 2-1 3 months before referendum, statistical tie at actual referendum. Feel free to travel up for a love bombing though!

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada

    Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.
    Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21
    Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14

    Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    JackW said:

    Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.

    Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.
    Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.

    Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!

    Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.

    Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.
    Likely because so many witless BritNats and posh twerps were running around shrieking triumphantly about Osbrowne's currency posturing for weeks. They look even more stupid and gullible than usual now. Quite an accomplishment considering how laughable their judgement is on everything else as well.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.

    Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.
    It is becoming a real problem that only polling that is deemed good for the Tories is discussed (although much of that discussion is vainglorious screeching). It would be good to hear some analysis on why and how Labour have recovered a decent lead in a week. I dare say Labourites on here do stick around to discuss tightening of polling, so why the wall of silence from their opponents? @SeanT could once have been relied upon to troll the thread on the light of a bad Tory poll, by calling for high-level resignations. He needs to get back on it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014

    Millsy said:

    Liberal Democrat – 8 (-22)

    Ouch
    These were the 2013 local election results for pretty much the same area:

    Shepway / Folkestone & Hythe:

    Con: 8,368
    UKIP: 8,265
    Lab: 3,259
    LD: 2,543
    Green: 2,216
    Others: 973
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada

    Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.
    Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21
    Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14

    Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero
    September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT As said below Scots' independence would make virtually no difference to Labour, they would require an additional 1% swing to win according to Curtice. However, it would be a huge blow to the UK and encourage separatist movements across the UK, from Catalonia and the Basque country, to Quebec, Flanders, Venice, the old Soviet Union and maybe even parts of China and Texas, creating global instability

    Next you will be wanting tanks on the streets to stop the world becoming unstable. It will mean nothing to Labour but de-stabilise the world, you are obviously not playing with a full deck.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.

    Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.
    Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.

    Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!

    Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.

    Excluding DK , No is between 8% ahead ( Panelbase ) and 22% ahead ( Yougov ) or 28% ahead ( Ipsos Mori ) .
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!

    No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    SeanT said:

    As YES looms closer, I see lefties are finally panicking. Someone on the last thread yet again trotted out the canard that Labour would be fine without 40 Scottish seats.

    For the last time, IT'S NOT JUST THE SEATS

    Losing the MPs would be bad for the Left, but losing everything else Scotland represents would be worse. As the man said:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100265140/without-scotland-labour-will-be-mutilated-and-traumatised-for-a-generation/

    It would take Labour 15-20 years to recover from YES. The end result would be a Labour Party, and a rUK, further to the right. Denying this is futile, and revealing.

    I think the reason nobody's taking the point beyond the 40 seats seriously is that there's not much of a point there. Historically Scotland was important, but looking at the current Shadow Cabinet there are hardly any Scots in important jobs at all, which is presumably why you had to phrase them as "two of the brightest stars in today’s Shadow Cabinet", since you couldn't say anything concrete like "two of the most important people in today's Shadow Cabinet". As somebody said on the last thread the vote share there isn't exceptionally high either. Barring some kind of hidden mystical on-going dependence on the psychic energy of Donald Dewar, there's no obvious trauma.
    Actually, if there is a Yes vote I could see there being a big sigh of relief in certain parts of the Labour party (let's call them Blairites for convenience). They can discard that increasingly itchy 'Labour values' fig leaf and get on with constructing the centrist & managerialist party that they think will win if for them in the marginals.

    Obviously. There would then have to be an ACTUAL scottish labour party rather than a theoretical one. Once those ties were finally severed you can be certain that rUK labour would then move very quickly indeed to becoming Blairites on steroids relentlessly triangulating on the marginals particularly in the south. It's not as if little Ed is some kind of 'moral crusader' with any kind of values or beliefs to stop him. So he would have no qualms whatsoever in going full Blue Labour.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada

    Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.
    Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21
    Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14

    Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero
    September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."

    True , but that was a dodgy poll from this "respected pollster" with leading questions asked prior to the VI question . Nothing of course to do with the poll being paid for by the SNP
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces

    You need a reality check , the UK could not beat a few Taliban, the UK is now heading to be a 3rd rate military power if not already there.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    What's happened to the East Midlands? Didn't Kilroy Silk stand in Erewash because it had the largest Ukip vote in 2004? Is there potential for Ukip there. Incidentally it's about the furthest away from the sea you can get in this country (actually Derbyshire). If not Erewash, how about neighbouring marginal constituency with a pinko Tory candidate - Broxtowe, or perhaps that's wishful thinking.

    In 2009 UKIP did better in the West Midlands than the East, which was a reversal of the situation in 2004 when Kilroy Silk was making waves.

    The village of Coton in the Elms is the furthest point from the sea in the UK. It's about a ten minute drive from where I'm sitting at the moment. Played cricket there once.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BobaFett said:

    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.

    Not much backbone in Londoners is there ?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!

    No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.
    Some people like fetid, corrupt swamps.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2563060/Judge-labels-Sean-Connery-ignorant-law-vows-investigate-actors-wife-fraud-absolves-wrongdoing.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    How did calamity Clegg's EU and leadership master strategy go BTW?

    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 4h

    YouGov leader ratings:- Cameron (-10) Miliband (-34) Clegg (-51) Farage (+25)

    No doubt Clegg's amusing ostrich faction of inept spinners can claim it's a dodgy poll.

    LOL
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Damian Thompson ✔ @holysmoke

    Ex-addict Sean Thomas has taken heroin, crack, opium, LSD, ecstasy & hashish. But it's cigarettes he wants banned http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100266528/lets-ban-smoking-it-makes-you-smell-cough-look-old-get-sick-and-its-the-most-boring-drug-experience-ever/

    Let's ban smoking. It makes you smell, cough, look old, get sick – and it's the most boring drug experience ever

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100266528/lets-ban-smoking-it-makes-you-smell-cough-look-old-get-sick-and-its-the-most-boring-drug-experience-ever/

    Would you call Mr Thompson your boss sean ;-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.

    Bob, good to see at least one person on here has a backbone , SeanT as well has been calling it right recently also.
    Unionists trying to kid on all is well are deluded. They should watch Darling on Marr and then be able to say honestly , does he look like a winner.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Easterross Polls I have seen show DKs leaning NO. A possible worst case scenario is Quebec which rejected independence by 51-49% in 1995 after Yes picked up 6% over the year, but a huge NO unity rally attended by 100,000 from across Canada helped tip the balance to NO (I would be willing to travel to such a rally if needed). Despite the close result, Quebec is still in Canada

    Latest poll has the DK's 2:1 towards YES. Keep hoping for the best , travel is all in one direction now and it is not to NO. It is going to happen.
    Panelbase poll Jan 2012 Yes 37 No 42 DK 21
    Panelbase poll Yesterday Yes 41 No 46 DK 14

    Change in 2 years and 3 months with this pollster a big fat zero
    September 2013, "Panelbase poll commissioned by the SNP and published today, the Yes side have a one point lead. Yes are given 44%, No 43%."

    True , but that was a dodgy poll from this "respected pollster" with leading questions asked prior to the VI question . Nothing of course to do with the poll being paid for by the SNP
    keep on kidding yourself all is well, YES vote and Lib Dems wiped out at next election for sure.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    BobaFett said:

    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.

    Little chance of that happily. Many of the people in charge of the NO strategy are the same ones who were in charge of SLAB's 2011 'triumph'. What did they do when the polls were narrowing? Double down on the negativity. Which worked a treat, just not for them. They are incapable of learning from their mistakes or proceeding any other way.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    BobaFett said:

    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.

    Not much backbone in Londoners is there ?
    He isnt a Londoner
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited April 2014
    isam said:

    BobaFett said:

    @MalcolmG is absolutely right and no amount of wishful thinking from our side will change the fact that Yes is on our heels. Time for a rethink.

    Not much backbone in Londoners is there ?
    He isnt a Londoner
    Oh I know, he's a Notherner who turned invertebrate in Southern softness ;-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It'll be interesting to see if UKIP can beat the LDs in London in the Euro elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TUD Quebec was a worst case scenario, YES gained 6 points over the campaign and still lost as they would in Scotland with such a gain
    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21600116-scottish-nationalists-are-made-teflon-nothing-sticks
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    It'll be interesting to see if UKIP can beat the LDs in London in the Euro elections.

    Strangely, UKIP fell back in London last time...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    JackW But it would mean we punch below our present rate, especially with the loss of Scottish regiments to an already depleted armed forces

    We'd certainly punch below our present weight and I've always felt Scotland within the Union brings more to the party than its sheer numbers justify.

    Further you are correct the Scottish regiment will be a great loss but in the round the sheer clout of England will continue to ensure they remain a significant second tier economic and political power.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MickPork The SNP were already in charge in Scotland before the 2011 election and Labour had been trounced the year before, that is not a valid comparison, and Salmond can be pretty negative too when he wants to
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    It'll be interesting to see if UKIP can beat the LDs in London in the Euro elections.

    Strangely, UKIP fell back in London last time...
    I know it is v difficult to gauge but if you could find out how white British people who were educated in London voted, I would think UKIP would clean up.

    I tried to get a bet with tim on it, but we couldn't agree t's & c's

    "Immigrants" to London from other parts of the country are generally lefty types who love the "vibrant, diverse communities" precisely because they don't think of it as home
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Has the Yougov Westminster VI been posted? It has been given the full squirrel treatment on this and the last thread, so I assume it is not the flavour of the month.

    Today's IndyRef poll also got the full squirrel treatment. Doesn't take a genius to guess why.
    Indeed the indigenous Caledonian red squirrel is far superior to the grey invader and noted no change from their previous poll.

    Huzzah For Genius Scottish Squirrels !!

    Excluding Don't Knows, No is between 6% and 16% ahead at present. I certainly don't regard a Yes vote as being a done deal.

    On this we disagree Sean. YES is as "done" as a fine Scottish kipper - somewhat like that other Scottish kipper - the former Ukip leader north of the border - much admired by our very own OGH.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MalcolmG Those are the facts, it would have little real impact on Labour's electoral chances but be a huge boost to global separatist movements
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2014

    To be fair, if you had his money, you'd live in the Bahamas too!

    +0
    No, I bloody well would not. It is an awful place, once you dip below the tourist ads. The same goes for the Caribbean. A foetid, corrupt swamp.
    Have you lived there? I have previously lived for 10 years in 4 countries and visited many of the others. Most, apart from basket cases such as Venezuela, have improved over the years.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    HYUFD said:

    TUD Quebec was a worst case scenario, YES gained 6 points over the campaign and still lost as they would in Scotland with such a gain
    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21600116-scottish-nationalists-are-made-teflon-nothing-sticks

    No, the Quebec campaign was 3 months - the Economist piece states 'The “yes” campaign gained 6% in the final two months of the campaign; it only just lost.'

    'Early polls indicated that 67% of Quebecers would vote "No"'

    http://tinyurl.com/px7zhx9

    I'll happily take 6 points on top of whatever Yes is polling on 18/07/14.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Interesting piece in the Sunday Times about the possible defenestration of Clegg. The threshold being spoken of for his survival is 5-6 Euro seats. That looked to be setting the high jump bar at about 28 feet....

    Last time I looked at the betting markets their expectation was 2 LD MEPs. I would expect defenestration if the LDs were down to 1 or 0 MEPs. 5+ seems safe but is the ST article based on any internal LD views?
    You have to take account of the "PR" electoral system, which this time could operate brutally against the LibDems.

    Irrespective of seats won, I would say 10%+ of the vote would be 'good' result, and below 8% a dire one...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TFS Well they are all examples of elite YES backers are they not
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited April 2014
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Yes and thanks to the USA which paid a heavy price for it. We will see how good it is in a few years when the western troops have left with their tails between their legs. Only 15 % of polling stations closed due to lack of security. Taliban will eb back in control in short order.

    Sure we played a major part on Bin Laden as well, NOT.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    HYUFD said:

    MickPork The SNP were already in charge in Scotland before the 2011 election and Labour had been trounced the year before, that is not a valid comparison

    It's not valid because Cammie couldn't even win a majority so your 'trounced' is amusing nonsense for a start. I was there, I know what labour were campaigning on and they were full on negative and anti-independence. They were also well ahead in the polls months before the result so if there was any backlash from 2010 it had self-evidently evaporated long before the campaign.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:

    Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/panelbase-wings-poll-shows-narrow-but-unchanged-no-lead/
  • RodCrosby said:

    Interesting piece in the Sunday Times about the possible defenestration of Clegg. The threshold being spoken of for his survival is 5-6 Euro seats. That looked to be setting the high jump bar at about 28 feet....

    Last time I looked at the betting markets their expectation was 2 LD MEPs. I would expect defenestration if the LDs were down to 1 or 0 MEPs. 5+ seems safe but is the ST article based on any internal LD views?
    You have to take account of the "PR" electoral system, which this time could operate brutally against the LibDems.
    Irrespective of seats won, I would say 10%+ of the vote would be 'good' result, and below 8% a dire one...
    Yes and Clegg could be lucky or unlucky with the d'hondt system shares. But I do not think he will be judged by the % but by the number of MEPs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers
  • HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014

    I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:

    Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.

    A trend Curtice had been trying to deny for months hilariously enough. Not that Curtice covered himself in glory in 2011 either come to that. You have to feel sorry for the scottish tory surgers, All that gullible shrieking over Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.

    LOL



  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2014
    There have been a number of comments on the last Quebec referendum in 1995 narrowly lost by YES but the first vote in May 1980 was decisively won by NO by 60/40 :

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    London region, 2009 Euro election:

    Con 27.4%
    Lab 21.3%
    LD 13.7%
    Green 10.9%
    UKIP 10.8%
    BNP 4.9%
    Christian 2.9%
    Ind 2.9%
    Eng Dem 1.4%
    No2EU 1.0%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited April 2014

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    Quite. And as the media are almost 100% unionist, one wonders how many people there are such as Alastair Gray who are pro-independence - but who weren't controversial or spinnable as controversial (as in his case) and so got quietly forgotten. [edited to resolve ambiguity]

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm surprised by those London figures - about 20% voted for either UKIP or parties whose voters might plausibly defect to the party this time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    No one ever wins in Afghanistan, particularly the Afghans themselves.

    Helmand was a fairly quiet province until we took it on. It was the presence of UK and US troops that became the recruiting Sergeant for the Taliban.

    The way to win is soft power: smartphones, internet and Hindi movies. Cheap chinese finery and Japanese cars. Radical Islam is a reaction against the modern world. The way to defeat it is through consumerism and easy communication. It is much harder to convince the poor and ignorant that fundamentalist Islam is right when they can see that life is so much better without it. It is the slow spread of these things that will have more effect than military force.

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Labour candidate for St Helens South, Marie Rimmer:

    http://moderngov.sthelens.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=146
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    TFS Well they are all examples of elite YES backers are they not

    Desperate desperate stuff.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    I'm surprised by those London figures - about 20% voted for either UKIP or parties whose voters might plausibly defect to the party this time.

    It was closer to 30% (or above) in the other English regions...

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

    How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:

    Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/04/panelbase-wings-poll-shows-narrow-but-unchanged-no-lead/

    Did you read your cut and paste, "the two to three point increase in YES support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months".

    It states exactly what I have said today , the trend is to YES even that great unionist Curtice is promoting it.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.
    I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.

  • I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.
    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

    How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    New Labour candidate for St Helens South, Marie Rimmer:

    http://moderngov.sthelens.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=146

    At 68 (in May 2015) she would be the second-oldest woman ever to enter parliament, narrowly missing Ethel Bentham's record from 1929...
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    It is becoming a real problem that only polling that is deemed good for the Tories is discussed (although much of that discussion is vainglorious screeching).
    That's because it's interesting i.e. not boring. Doesn't make true, though.
    BobaFett said:

    It would be good to hear some analysis on why and how Labour have recovered a decent lead in a week.
    Perhaps you should stop focussing on leads and concentrate on levels.

    UKIP had a great last week:

    First gay "marriages"
    Tory MP and rent boy
    Channel 4 documentary on Farage.
    Farage wiping the floor with Clegg in the debate
    Miller and Cameron doing their absolute best to make the Tory Party look corrupt.

    Incidentally, isn't it great to see the gay community rush to Miller's aid in her hour of need in gratitude for introducing gay "marriage"? Most touching.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.
    I don't think his experience is unique. Lots of people are getting on-line abuse from the partisan whether it's blokes at bus companies or tennis players. In truth it was always going to be where it ended up as Salmond is simply putting a fissure through Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.
    Yeah. You don't think the sponsorship money might have something to do with it ?.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.

    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

    How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?
    The Taliban certainly didn't care too much about elections before but they may not even need a civil war if Kabul is just a fig leaf. Those elected may quite possibly end up doing the bidding of those with the guns and the real power elsewhere. Iraq had an immeasurably stronger apparatus of governance already in place even after the carnage. In Afghanistan it's simply not there and would take many more decades to build up. It will not end well and never was going to end well.
  • It's a bit surreal, seeing grown men bicker over which celebrity hasbeen supports your side. If that's the level it's come down to, I can't wait for it to be over, and Yes win.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited April 2014

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.

    Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.

    But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...

    More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.

    (No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Malcolm G Billy Connolly has made pro union comments, but has said he will accept whatever the result. Other pro independence backers are comedians Frankie Boyle, Hardeep Singh Kohli, Greg Hemphill, Robert Florence and Brian Limond. But the irony is while the many Scottish expats in London and further afield will not get a vote, English living in Scotland will
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.
    I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.

    He explicitly mad ethat point IIRC - but he also explained that Britnat abuse was a major reason, and that was in a feature piece in the Daily Mail. Not your average nat medium.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Alan, again he does not have a vote living in Surrey and so stating he is YES would be counter productive , but his mother who lives in Scotland is a YES. Given the abuse he took when he joked about the England team he is wise to say nothing.
    Yeah. You don't think the sponsorship money might have something to do with it ?.
    Only 100%, but he is so rich now it should be irrelevant. He should be buying a house and getting up here to vote, still plenty of time to register.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    JackW True, but it would still be a blow
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2014
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    I believe he prefers to style himself The Reverend Campbell.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.

    Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.

    But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...

    More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.

    (No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)



    the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.

    what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TUD As with Scotland you can pick which poll you want, earlier independence polls have had similar big NO leads or much tighter, but the gains over the campaign were still not enough for a YES
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    HYUFD said:

    Malcolm G Billy Connolly has made pro union comments, but has said he will accept whatever the result. Other pro independence backers are comedians Frankie Boyle, Hardeep Singh Kohli, Greg Hemphill, Robert Florence and Brian Limond. But the irony is while the many Scottish expats in London and further afield will not get a vote, English living in Scotland will

    Can you explain why they should get a vote on Scotland when they do not live there. This is a vote for people who have chosen to live in Scotland, if they want a vote get back up here to live.
  • It is shameful, isn't it?
    Granted, Afghanistan wasn't the best country in the World, before Bush and Blair decided to act out their World police fantasies, but it's guaranteed to be a bloodbath after we go home. Lots of old scores to be settled, centuries of tribal tension to be vented. People who supported the West, left to fend for themselves.
    Makes you wonder how Blair sleeps at night.
    Mick_Pork said:

    I think Afghanistan is going to go through a very traumatic time over the coming years, if not outright civil war.

    Mick_Pork said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG Crap, There was a huge turnout in yesterday's Afghan election and the Talaban are out of power with all their enslavement of women and denial of education to children, Bin Laden is dead. This achieved despite defence cuts. The UK is the 4th biggest military power, but Scotland is a key component of that

    Ask any squaddie who's done a few tours in Afghan (and I have, many times), and they'll tell you that once the West announced that it was game over this year, the Taleban just melted away, knowing full well that once we've packed up and gone home, they can get back to doing what they do best.
    We haven't won in Afghan.

    How many times were Iraq elections spun by a compliant media to the credulous that it was proof of just how well things were going there?
    The Taliban certainly didn't care too much about elections before but they may not even need a civil war if Kabul is just a fig leaf. Those elected may quite possibly end up doing the bidding of those with the guns and the real power elsewhere. Iraq had an immeasurably stronger apparatus of governance already in place even after the carnage. In Afghanistan it's simply not there and would take many more decades to build up. It will not end well and never was going to end well.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.
    I think you'll find he's only playing your own logic back to you.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2014
    Carnyx said:

    I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners

    For some bizarre reason little Ed and calamity Clegg's spinners really do seem to latch on to that one in particular. They simply don't get it which just makes it all the more amusing.
    Long may they continue, it's priceless stuff.

    ;)

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Connolly has declined to express an opinion.
    so have lots of Scots - the tennis Murrays for example. Sort of shows what a shit campaign it has been.
    Mr Murray's reason is probably because of his experience of Britnat abuse on the net, after his joke about supporting "Anyone but England" in the footie some years ago. His mum was interviewed by Mr Salmond in what was apparently a very lighthearted chat but I didn't hear it so don't know what if anything she said.
    I assume Murray hasn't expressed an opinion because he lives in England and so doesn't get to vote.

    He explicitly mad ethat point IIRC - but he also explained that Britnat abuse was a major reason, and that was in a feature piece in the Daily Mail. Not your average nat medium.

    Bit too right wing and dodgy salutes for Nats.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:

    Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.

    Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.
    You mean the intervention that drove rUK opinion on a currency union from "evenly split" to "2:1 against"?

    Clearly, "A Victory for Eck"!

    Titters.....

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.

    Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.

    But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...

    More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.

    (No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)



    the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.

    what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.
    Sorry if it upset you. I was trying to be factual and neutral but it is certainly what I have been told and what I have heard from my friend and the impression I get from reading in the paper. Perhaps my terminology would have been better "anti-immigrant" discourse. But others can judge better than me which is more accurate. I did also note the different experiences (at least in recent years).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MalcolmG Even before 9/11 the Taleban could not control all of Afghanistan. Abdullah Abdullah and Ghani, the leading candidates, are much stronger figures than Karzai and will have a big mandate, unlike Karzai they have also agreed to sign for backing from a residual NATO force
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    I believe he prefers to style himself The Reverend Campbell.
    Good luck to him, he can call himself what he wants.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.
    You mean malcolmg's " logic", he said he didn't give a toss about the opinions of people not resident in Scotland. Inevitably he contradicted himself within minutes.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    I think I will take John Curtice word on the PanelBase poll rather than the furious spinning of the stalled separatists:

    Once the Don’t Knows (14%, down one point) are excluded the Yes vote stands at 47%, the same as in Panelbase’s previous poll for newsnet. The poll thus cannot be cited as evidence that there is now a nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50% mark. We should certainly remember that all of the polls Panelbase conducted last year already put the Yes tally at 44% or 45%. The two to three point increase in Yes support since then is simply in line with the trend that has already been evident in more or less all the polls for some two or three months.

    Osbrowne's inept posturing for nothing.
    You mean the intervention that drove rUK opinion on a currency union from "evenly split" to "2:1 against"?

    Clearly, "A Victory for Eck"!

    Titters.....

    Terrible backlash!! *shriek!*

    Titters..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    MickPork Only because of Clegg, the Labour total was its lowest since 1983
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Carnyx said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone so far expressed the view that maybe one factor causing YES to rise in Scotland is the growing popularity of UKIP in the rest of the UK? Maybe Scotland's more left-wing voters don't like what they're seeing.

    Undoubtedly. One of the key points about indy is the way in which the Scots keep voting for anyone but a Tory and end up under Tories (or their Blairite impersonations). So anything that contributes to the perception that England is being overrun by, metaphorically, what many a Scots voter sees as the political equivalent of an ueber-Tory zombie apocalypse is going to help get a Yes, as a first approximation, so UKIP is very good for Yes.

    But the question here is how sophisticated the Scots electorate are - to what extent they realise that lots of Kipper votes mean a Labour win. But we will see. Note that the Indy referendum comes after the European but before the UK election ...

    More generally, the political discourse in Scotland and England has diverged in recent years with the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics. I initially had great difficulty understanding the No Campaign and Unionist obsession with foreigners - "your granny in Auchtermuchty will be a foreigner if the Jocks vote Yes!" THis is risible to many a Scot with emigre friends and relatives in Ireland, Canada, NZ, Australia, etc. And when the SNP and their MSPs and MPs are full of incomers from all over. It was only when talking to a friend in Devon who is involved in local politics and was commenting on the rise of UKIP that the penny dropped.

    (No need to explain to me how this divergence has happened - this has been discussed many times on PB and is undoubtedly in part due to the rather different experiences of immigration and emigration. I'm only concerned here with the existence of the divergence and the loikely response to a rise in UKIP.)



    the rise in the acceptability of anti-foreigner discourse in English and therefore Westminster politics.

    what sanctimonious nonsense. Scotland hasn't had mass immigration in the way England has, and still despite it all England remains one of the most tolerant places on earth.
    Met police??
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    So you don't give a toss about Dickson or that weird fake cleric at WoS ? Very snubbing of you.
    Mr Campbell at WoS is doing a grand job, he may not have a vote but it looks like he is certainly influencing the decision. Nice to see the lying unionist medias stories being shown up for what they are.
    If Stuart lives in Sweden then he has no vote so that is tough.
    I am sure there are many Scots throughout the world interested in the referendum result.
    On Ms DiCanio's logic, we should ignore most of the "Scottish" media, including the BBC, as they are owned/controlled south of the border, and we should also ignore Messrs Cameron, Osborne, Hammond, Cable, Clegg, Miliband, etc. etc.
    I think you'll find he's only playing your own logic back to you.
    My own logic? Where?

    I'd read anything with interest from anywhere if it is well informed, germane and has something useful to contribute.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2014
    Arsenal is heading for another Wenger defeat.
    I say Wenger because for the last 4 years his managerial skills have been in steep decline.
    Arsenal is now paying the price for misguided loyalty to a man way past his sell by date.
    I write this as a 7+ decade supporter of Arsenal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    MalcolmG David Bowie, Billy Connolly are No backers, Brian Cox is for YES. Both have celebrity backers

    Dear Dear , you get worse. Bowie got himself some free publicity , Connolly has clearly stated he will not state his views and as he does not live in Scotland has no vote. Cox is YES but again has no vote . All are irrelevant and nobody gives a toss what any of them think, we are interested in what the people who live in Scotland think.
    But what about Cumming who desperately wants to vote - bought a flat to qualify - but sadly can't? (As some of us pointed out at the time....) And after you assured us all that he would be able to vote too.....

This discussion has been closed.