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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s not forget that Johnson’s precarious parliamentary situa

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s not forget that Johnson’s precarious parliamentary situation is largely self-made

The reason that Johnson is in such a weak parliamentary position stems directly from two big decisions that he has made. First there was the reaction to his first Commons vote when he stripped 21 of his party’s MPs from the whip. Then there was his Brexit agreement with its changes for the status Northern Ireland which have resulted in the DUP’s 10 MPs moving entirely to the other side.

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    edited October 2019
    Can’t argue.

    I’m not Bercow’s greatest fan, and it’s undeniable that he has pushed the envelope, but Johnson has tried to rip it up and thrown it away...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Second
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    Interesting Wisconsin poll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/poll-biden-trump-wisconsin-055929

    The assumption that Biden is going away is flawed, I think. And if he does, the Democrats have something of a problem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    His "majority" was not helped early on by May agreeing to let the convicted former MP stand again in B&R. I'm sure she had the purest of motives.

    The arrangement with the DUP he inherited was always going to be testing, once it got to the sharp end of a Brexit Deal to remove the immoveable backstop. That he didn't get a deal they liked was, again, a replay of the position he inherited from May.

    The "outrage" over a prorogued Parliament looks mightily overdone when they returned and, er, did nothing - because in that period there was no response from the EU. As was said at the time. Boris's deal was done after the House would have resumed under that initial prorogation timeline. But at least he got to discover who his enemies were.

    And it is a strange reading of history to suggest that the Speaker only increased his power grab against the executive once Boris was elected. It began once there was no majority after June 2017.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Remarkable how the next week or so has such a range of plausible paths.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Good morning, everyone.

    Remarkable how the next week or so has such a range of plausible paths.

    Most of which if you submitted as a script for a political drama would be rejected out of hand as ridiculously over the top!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Wisconsin poll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/poll-biden-trump-wisconsin-055929

    The assumption that Biden is going away is flawed, I think. And if he does, the Democrats have something of a problem.

    But Biden's lead over Trump in Wisconsin has gone from 9 to 6 in two months.... At a time when things haven't exactly been all ginger, peachy and ever so ever so nice for the Pres. More impeachy, rather.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited October 2019

    His "majority" was not helped early on by May agreeing to let the convicted former MP stand again in B&R. I'm sure she had the purest of motives.

    The problem May had - and this is where it gets murky - is (1) the actual offence was a bit technical and quite low key. Although we are assured there was more behind it, on the facts it wasn't as serious as, say, a certain Labour MP awarding himself many thousands of pounds in redundancy payments from a fund he controlled at the time he resigned (2) Davies had the backing of his local party (3) The nature of that constituency meant that an alternative candidate might well have done a lot worse, unless they had someone local and high profile to parachute in (4) they couldn't really pick a new candidate until recall was complete and by the time it was it was too late.

    So I don't think it's fair to criticise May for that. In the end, it wasn't I think decisive there anyway. What did for the Tories was the collapse of the last Labour stronghold in Ystradgynlais and that is a Wales-wide phenomenon that would have happened whoever their candidate was.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Marquee Mark is characteristically completely wrong and Mike Smithson by contrast characteristically spot on. This is almost entirely self-inflicted. Johnson's majority did not stand and fall according to whoever won Brecon & Radnor tsk.

    Johnson boxed himself in and I can just imagine Dominic Cummings deciding on the spur of the moment to throw Northern Ireland to the dogs. The shabby treatment of the DUP, whatever one thinks of their politics, are the movements of two totally unprincipled shysters: Johnson and Cummings.

    We all knew it would come home to roost, just not many of us imagined it would happen so quickly.

    There's a marked contrast to the way this has been handled with Labour and their leavers. Corbyn's tightrope act may have looked ridiculous at times, but Tuesday was a brilliant piece of deft balancing by the Labour Whips. There was a moment when Corbyn turned and nodded to Gloria de Piero. This was to acknowledge that he would NOT withdraw the whip when they voted for the 2nd reading but the quid pro quo which he encouraged would be their support for rejecting the timetable main motion. This was brilliant politicking and must be largely thanks to Nick Brown (whom I know many inside Westminster rate very highly). It's such a contrast to those berks Cummings and Johnson. In these incredibly tight margins you HAVE to know when to let something pass, when to drop your red lines, when to turn a blind eye. You have to know what your battle lines really are: when is the moment to say, 'No this one counts.' The No 10 machine got it hopelessly wrong. Kicking out the rebels was a huge huge tactical error.

    The end result, which the Daily Mail have typically misjudged, is that it's No 10 now currently in an internal war and the Labour party which is relatively relaxed. Corbyn does want an election but he's also got Johnson back on the ropes. He can afford to insist that the Brexit Bill be brought back and let it be amended before an election. By an extraordinary twist of events, it's Labour that can now be seen to be pushing for a Brexit deal and the Conservatives who are delaying or blocking it.

    Labour rode high in Parliament this week. Whether it will last, remains to be seen.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540


    And it is a strange reading of history to suggest that the Speaker only increased his power grab against the executive once Boris was elected. It began once there was no majority after June 2017.

    Yes his adherence to parliamentary convention/innovation of outdated traditions (delete as appropriate) well preceded Boris - and has tended to be applied almost exclusively to the matter of Brexit. Sometimes the government has brought it on themselves, at other times Bercow’s own vision of his “place in history” appears to be guiding him...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Marquee Mark is characteristically completely wrong and Mike Smithson by contrast characteristically spot on. This is almost entirely self-inflicted. Johnson's majority did not stand and fall according to whoever won Brecon & Radnor tsk.

    Johnson boxed himself in and I can just imagine Dominic Cummings deciding on the spur of the moment to throw Northern Ireland to the dogs. The shabby treatment of the DUP, whatever one thinks of their politics, are the movements of two totally unprincipled shysters: Johnson and Cummings.

    We all knew it would come home to roost, just not many of us imagined it would happen so quickly.

    There's a marked contrast to the way this has been handled with Labour and their leavers. Corbyn's tightrope act may have looked ridiculous at times, but Tuesday was a brilliant piece of deft balancing by the Labour Whips. There was a moment when Corbyn turned and nodded to Gloria de Piero. This was to acknowledge that he would NOT withdraw the whip when they voted for the 2nd reading but the quid pro quo which he encouraged would be their support for rejecting the timetable main motion. This was brilliant politicking and must be largely thanks to Nick Brown (whom I know many inside Westminster rate very highly). It's such a contrast to those berks Cummings and Johnson. In these incredibly tight margins you HAVE to know when to let something pass, when to drop your red lines, when to turn a blind eye. You have to know what your battle lines really are: when is the moment to say, 'No this one counts.' The No 10 machine got it hopelessly wrong. Kicking out the rebels was a huge huge tactical error.

    The end result, which the Daily Mail have typically misjudged, is that it's No 10 now currently in an internal war and the Labour party which is relatively relaxed. Corbyn does want an election but he's also got Johnson back on the ropes. He can afford to insist that the Brexit Bill be brought back and let it be amended before an election. By an extraordinary twist of events, it's Labour that can now be seen to be pushing for a Brexit deal and the Conservatives who are delaying or blocking it.

    Labour rode high in Parliament this week. Whether it will last, remains to be seen.

    Labour riding high in Parliament to keep its 240 MPs together. Meanwhile, in doing so in the world outside Westminster, Labour sinks to the low 20's in the polls.

    And you want to talk misjudgment?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Wisconsin poll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/poll-biden-trump-wisconsin-055929

    The assumption that Biden is going away is flawed, I think. And if he does, the Democrats have something of a problem.

    But Biden's lead over Trump in Wisconsin has gone from 9 to 6 in two months.... At a time when things haven't exactly been all ginger, peachy and ever so ever so nice for the Pres. More impeachy, rather.
    With an MOE of over 4%, that’s not entirely persuasive.

    The detail on impeachment suggests that positions on either side have hardened, and its particularly interesting that of those who have read the call ‘transcript’, over half support impeachment:
    https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/10/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-increased-support-for-trump-impeachment-hearings-since-the-spring-while-opinions-about-trump-have-changed-little/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    A former Republican who was part of the Benghazi investigation calls for impeachment:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/how-trumps-defenders-now-approached-benghazi-back-then/600556/
    The reality is that if Pompeo, Jordan, and House Republicans had received the kind of bombshell testimony we heard from Taylor yesterday, they would have immediately moved to impeach the president.

    In a blatant display of hypocrisy, Pompeo has refused to cooperate with Congress’s impeachment investigation and has blocked other State Department officials from testifying. Jordan has spent his time attacking the impeachment proceedings, bizarrely suggesting that the Democrats have something to hide.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    FPT

    It's quite remarkable that the man who was Chancellor a few months ago is now persona non grata in the party. Has there ever been a similar case?

    The defectors from both major parties who don't feel especially akin to the LibDems have a real problem - it'd be absurd for someone of Hammond's talent to just wander off the scene, but standing as an independent is probably doom. Perhaps a future PM will put him in the Lords.
    Someone of his what?

    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Marquee Mark is characteristically completely wrong and Mike Smithson by contrast characteristically spot on. This is almost entirely self-inflicted. Johnson's majority did not stand and fall according to whoever won Brecon & Radnor tsk.

    Johnson boxed himself in and I can just imagine Dominic Cummings deciding on the spur of the moment to throw Northern Ireland to the dogs. The shabby treatment of the DUP, whatever one thinks of their politics, are the movements of two totally unprincipled shysters: Johnson and Cummings.

    We all knew it would come home to roost, just not many of us imagined it would happen so quickly.

    There's a marked contrast to the way this has been handled with Labour and their leavers. Corbyn's tightrope act may have looked ridiculous at times, but Tuesday was a brilliant piece of deft balancing by the Labour Whips. There was a moment when Corbyn turned and nodded to Gloria de Piero. This was to acknowledge that he would NOT withdraw the whip when they voted for the 2nd reading but the quid pro quo which he encouraged would be their support for rejecting the timetable main motion. This was brilliant politicking and must be largely thanks to Nick Brown (whom I know many inside Westminster rate very highly). It's such a contrast to those berks Cummings and Johnson. In these incredibly tight margins you HAVE to know when to let something pass, when to drop your red lines, when to turn a blind eye. You have to know what your battle lines really are: when is the moment to say, 'No this one counts.' The No 10 machine got it hopelessly wrong. Kicking out the rebels was a huge huge tactical error.

    The end result, which the Daily Mail have typically misjudged, is that it's No 10 now currently in an internal war and the Labour party which is relatively relaxed. Corbyn does want an election but he's also got Johnson back on the ropes. He can afford to insist that the Brexit Bill be brought back and let it be amended before an election. By an extraordinary twist of events, it's Labour that can now be seen to be pushing for a Brexit deal and the Conservatives who are delaying or blocking it.

    Labour rode high in Parliament this week. Whether it will last, remains to be seen.

    Labour sinks to the low 20's in the polls.
    We'll see
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited October 2019
    eek said:

    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    She kicked him out of the cabinet, not the party. Leaving Parliament was his own choice.
  • I couldn't disagree more.

    The reason Boris finds himself in such a precarious position is that May threw away Cameron's majority and allowed a total breakdown in discipline and collective responsibility.

    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    If you face a problem the first step to dealing with it isn't to pretend like May did that the problem doesn't exist and just stick your head in your sand. Yes Boris nominally has fewer MPs he can rely on than May did but in reality he has more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Marquee Mark is characteristically completely wrong and Mike Smithson by contrast characteristically spot on. This is almost entirely self-inflicted. Johnson's majority did not stand and fall according to whoever won Brecon & Radnor tsk.

    Johnson boxed himself in and I can just imagine Dominic Cummings deciding on the spur of the moment to throw Northern Ireland to the dogs. The shabby treatment of the DUP, whatever one thinks of their politics, are the movements of two totally unprincipled shysters: Johnson and Cummings.

    We all knew it would come home to roost, just not many of us imagined it would happen so quickly.

    There's a marked contrast to the way this has been handled with Labour and their leavers. Corbyn's tightrope act may have looked ridiculous at times, but Tuesday was a brilliant piece of deft balancing by the Labour Whips. There was a moment when Corbyn turned and nodded to Gloria de Piero. This was to acknowledge that he would NOT withdraw the whip when they voted for the 2nd reading but the quid pro quo which he encouraged would be their support for rejecting the timetable main motion. This was brilliant politicking and must be largely thanks to Nick Brown (whom I know many inside Westminster rate very highly). It's such a contrast to those berks Cummings and Johnson. In these incredibly tight margins you HAVE to know when to let something pass, when to drop your red lines, when to turn a blind eye. You have to know what your battle lines really are: when is the moment to say, 'No this one counts.' The No 10 machine got it hopelessly wrong. Kicking out the rebels was a huge huge tactical error.

    The end result, which the Daily Mail have typically misjudged, is that it's No 10 now currently in an internal war and the Labour party which is relatively relaxed. Corbyn does want an election but he's also got Johnson back on the ropes. He can afford to insist that the Brexit Bill be brought back and let it be amended before an election. By an extraordinary twist of events, it's Labour that can now be seen to be pushing for a Brexit deal and the Conservatives who are delaying or blocking it.

    Labour rode high in Parliament this week. Whether it will last, remains to be seen.

    Labour sinks to the low 20's in the polls.
    We'll see
    We have.

    The question is how that plays out come an election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Britain Elects reports that there are 8 council by-elections today; 5 in England, 3 in Wales. Four are currently Conservative held, 3 Labour and Andrew Teals describes the other as a free-for-all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting Wisconsin poll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/23/poll-biden-trump-wisconsin-055929

    The assumption that Biden is going away is flawed, I think. And if he does, the Democrats have something of a problem.

    But Biden's lead over Trump in Wisconsin has gone from 9 to 6 in two months.... At a time when things haven't exactly been all ginger, peachy and ever so ever so nice for the Pres. More impeachy, rather.
    With an MOE of over 4%, that’s not entirely persuasive.

    The detail on impeachment suggests that positions on either side have hardened, and its particularly interesting that of those who have read the call ‘transcript’, over half support impeachment:
    https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/10/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-increased-support-for-trump-impeachment-hearings-since-the-spring-while-opinions-about-trump-have-changed-little/
    It is still damning of the choices on offer by the Democrats that Trump is still within touching distance in Wisconsin.

    There's an interesting article here about the Democrats and Wisconsin:

    https://theintercept.com/2019/03/10/hillary-clinton-bloody-sunday-speech-selma/

    "in November 2016, the black voter turnout rate dropped from 79 percent in 2012 to 47 percent, the lowest black voter turnout in the state’s recorded history."
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Thanks Mike. That needed to be said.

    Boris' complaints about parliament are disingenuous. He was a serial rebel under May. He created chaos deliberately as PM. He created the people vs. parliament narrative and unleashed forces that will damage us for years to come. And yet he plays the victim.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Marquee Mark is characteristically completely wrong and Mike Smithson by contrast characteristically spot on. This is almost entirely self-inflicted. Johnson's majority did not stand and fall according to whoever won Brecon & Radnor tsk.

    Johnson boxed himself in and I can just imagine Dominic Cummings deciding on the spur of the moment to throw Northern Ireland to the dogs. The shabby treatment of the DUP, whatever one thinks of their politics, are the movements of two totally unprincipled shysters: Johnson and Cummings.

    We all knew it would come home to roost, just not many of us imagined it would happen so quickly.

    There's a marked contrast to the way this has been handled with Labour and their leavers. Corbyn's tightrope act may have looked ridiculous at times, but Tuesday was a brilliant piece of deft balancing by the Labour Whips. There was a moment when Corbyn turned and nodded to Gloria de Piero. This was to acknowledge that he would NOT withdraw the whip when they voted for the 2nd reading but the quid pro quo which he encouraged would be their support for rejecting the timetable main motion. This was brilliant politicking and must be largely thanks to Nick Brown (whom I know many inside Westminster rate very highly). It's such a contrast to those berks Cummings and Johnson. In these incredibly tight margins you HAVE to know when to let something pass, when to drop your red lines, when to turn a blind eye. You have to know what your battle lines really are: when is the moment to say, 'No this one counts.' The No 10 machine got it hopelessly wrong. Kicking out the rebels was a huge huge tactical error.

    The end result, which the Daily Mail have typically misjudged, is that it's No 10 now currently in an internal war and the Labour party which is relatively relaxed. Corbyn does want an election but he's also got Johnson back on the ropes. He can afford to insist that the Brexit Bill be brought back and let it be amended before an election. By an extraordinary twist of events, it's Labour that can now be seen to be pushing for a Brexit deal and the Conservatives who are delaying or blocking it.

    Labour rode high in Parliament this week. Whether it will last, remains to be seen.

    Labour sinks to the low 20's in the polls.
    We'll see
    We are already seeing.

    None so blind.....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019

    It's quite remarkable that the man who was Chancellor a few months ago is now persona non grata in the party. Has there ever been a similar case?

    James Ramsay MacDonald?



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If MPs disapproved of John Bercow’s decisions, they could have expressed that through their votes. Evidently a majority of MPs do approve. So Mike is quite right: it is Boris Johnson’s disregard for constructing a majority that is at the root of his problems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    ..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    alex. said:

    It's quite remarkable that the man who was Chancellor a few months ago is now persona non grata in the party. Has there ever been a similar case?

    James Ramsay MacDonald?
    You could make several cases for David Lloyd George, depending on what party and what period we are talking about for him...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The political earth continues to shift in Sweden. A century of Social Democratic dominance seems to be well and truly history now, as members of the largest trade union congress - LO - continue to shift slowly, but steadily, away from the Social Democrats to the anti-immigration, Euro-skeptic Sweden Democrats.

    The Sweden Democrats today record a record high VI figure, while the Liberals and Greens are still in deep trouble (parliamentary threshold is 4%):

    (change since Swedish GE 2018; approx UK sister-party)

    Social Democrats (Blairite Lab) 24.5% (-3.8)
    Sweden Democrats (Bxp, UKIP, BNP) 22.7% (+5.2)
    Moderates (Tory wets) 17.9% (-1.9)
    Left (SF, Momentum, Comm) 9.1% (-1.1)
    Centre (LD rural) 8.6% (nc)
    Christian Democrats (social conservatives) 6.8% (-0.5)
    Greens (Greens, SNP, PC, SDLP) 4.9% (+0.5)
    Liberals (LD urban) 3.9% (-1.6)

    TV4 Väljaropinion October

    Note: although the Sweden Democrats are often likened to UKIP or the BNP, they are actually a very different beast. They have without doubt the most gifted leader of any party, and he is no raving idiot. They are *not* in favour of Swexit. At least, not for the time being.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405
    eek said:

    FPT


    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    Johnson may well have treated Hammond as badly as May treated Osborne. But he did so at a time the Tory party was in a far, far, more vulnerable mess. And grown-up politics isn't about "whataboutery": it's about making the best of the cards on the table.

    Johnson's cabinet is demonstrating world-class incompetence on the Tory basics of sound management, fiscal prudence and mastering individual briefs: look at yesterday's mega shit show on what, exactly, the processes will be for trade between NI and GB. The last thing the Tories need is the permanent exile of the only member of May's team who's properly numerate: it's clear from his performance so far that Javid doesn't, and probably can't, count.

    The only parallel I can find for Johnson's shooting his own side when he needs all the help he can get is the dying days of the Third Reich
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    She kicked him out of the cabinet, not the party. Leaving Parliament was his own choice.
    As was editing a local free sheet....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited October 2019
    Flanner said:

    it's clear from his performance so far that Javid doesn't, and probably can't, count.

    Sheer genius. What a brilliant double meaning!

    (And very shrewd as well.)

    Shame about the last sentence...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    She kicked him out of the cabinet, not the party. Leaving Parliament was his own choice.
    As was editing a local free sheet....
    He set a new standard for hissy fits.

  • May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    eek said:

    FPT

    It's quite remarkable that the man who was Chancellor a few months ago is now persona non grata in the party. Has there ever been a similar case?

    The defectors from both major parties who don't feel especially akin to the LibDems have a real problem - it'd be absurd for someone of Hammond's talent to just wander off the scene, but standing as an independent is probably doom. Perhaps a future PM will put him in the Lords.
    Someone of his what?
    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    It’s totally different . May did not strip Osborne of the whip .

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    There were 2 different problems for Boris.

    The first is that in reality there never was a majority in Parliament for leaving and all Boris has done so far as his own party is concerned is expose the reality. What is the point of letting people who will not vote for your central policy retain the whip and the security of membership of the party? If May had taken a similar line with the loons in the ERG at an earlier stage we might not be, well we would be in a different mess.

    Boris' second problem is the DUP. There is simply no solution to the Irish border which (a) actually involves the UK leaving the EU in any meaningful sense (May's version of the UK wide backstop didn't in this respect) and (b) retains the all Ireland economy. The 2 are simply incompatible. Boris had to choose between the ERG by giving them a much harder leave for rUK or the DUP. He chose the former because they had more votes and these friends of the Union followed him without a backward glance.

    So to say that Boris has thrown away his majority is unfair. It never really existed. The outcome of his decisions will be a much more united party after the next election with a significant strand expunged. Whether that more united party can still attract votes across a wide enough spectrum remains to be seen.

    What I accept is completing missing from every part of the political spectrum at the moment is a consensus builder. Rory Stewart auditioned for the role but got only modest support. The superficially binary choice of Brexit has divided us and the reluctance of both sides to compromise on a soft Brexit (such as May put to the House 3x) has greatly damaged our politics. The more we see the consequences play out the more angry I get at the fuckwits who didn't vote for it on both sides of the divide.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    She kicked him out of the cabinet, not the party. Leaving Parliament was his own choice.
    As was editing a local free sheet....
    He set a new standard for hissy fits.
    Osborne and Hammond are two cheeks of the same Remainer arse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Flanner said:

    eek said:

    FPT


    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    Johnson may well have treated Hammond as badly as May treated Osborne. But he did so at a time the Tory party was in a far, far, more vulnerable mess. And grown-up politics isn't about "whataboutery": it's about making the best of the cards on the table.

    Johnson's cabinet is demonstrating world-class incompetence on the Tory basics of sound management, fiscal prudence and mastering individual briefs: look at yesterday's mega shit show on what, exactly, the processes will be for trade between NI and GB. The last thing the Tories need is the permanent exile of the only member of May's team who's properly numerate: it's clear from his performance so far that Javid doesn't, and probably can't, count.

    The only parallel I can find for Johnson's shooting his own side when he needs all the help he can get is the dying days of the Third Reich
    Somebody else who can see many parallels wth the Tories and 1930's Nazis - but none with Labour.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    justin124 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sad to see Big G back in the spin zone. Boris really doesn’t deserve it.

    I am in the spin zone for a deal that stops no deal and respects the referendum

    Sorry if that upsets you
    And to you Big_G, I have read PB for years despite only posting recently.

    You have in absolute fairness always maintained your belief in ensuring no No deal whilst respecting the result.

    It was, as a viewer, quite a drama seeing you being driven away from the Tories - and a (sudden) decision I absolutely understood. However I am glad that you have felt comfortable enough to consider re-joining. BJ isn't everyone's cup-of-tea (evidently) but he is nothing compared to the danger of Corbyn and his entourage. We must never forget that.
    Quite a few people who left the NSDAP in early July 1934 in the wake of 'The Night of the Long Knives' mysteriously decided to rejoin a few months later.
    You do like Nazi Germany analogies don't you?
    I must admit to being a bit of a Soviet Union fan myself.
    But in the spirit of my avatar, can we work in a NCR reference perhaps? Something something, Hoover Dam... something something Boone shoots Jeannie May Crawford.
    Hail caesar!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    The EU should offer a flextension until July 2022. Effectively give the U.K. all options (statutory GE, referendum, May’s deal, Johnson’s deal - latter two with new transition periods) to sort it out themselves and tell us to come back when we’re done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Britain Elects reports that there are 8 council by-elections today; 5 in England, 3 in Wales. Four are currently Conservative held, 3 Labour and Andrew Teals describes the other as a free-for-all.

    4th of the year in wiltshire with another to follow. UKIP were close behind the Tories in 2013 so in the normal course of events one would think an easy tory hold. The adjacent town is all ld held at unitary but at parish level is a tight and bitter battleground between ld and con.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Flanner said:

    eek said:

    FPT


    It's no different from what May did to the previous Chancellor.

    Johnson may well have treated Hammond as badly as May treated Osborne. But he did so at a time the Tory party was in a far, far, more vulnerable mess. And grown-up politics isn't about "whataboutery": it's about making the best of the cards on the table.

    Johnson's cabinet is demonstrating world-class incompetence on the Tory basics of sound management, fiscal prudence and mastering individual briefs: look at yesterday's mega shit show on what, exactly, the processes will be for trade between NI and GB. The last thing the Tories need is the permanent exile of the only member of May's team who's properly numerate: it's clear from his performance so far that Javid doesn't, and probably can't, count.

    The only parallel I can find for Johnson's shooting his own side when he needs all the help he can get is the dying days of the Third Reich
    Somebody else who can see many parallels wth the Tories and 1930's Nazis - but none with Labour.
    Labour and the Tories have more in common than either would care to admit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    alex. said:

    The EU should offer a flextension until July 2022. Effectively give the U.K. all options (statutory GE, referendum, May’s deal, Johnson’s deal - latter two with new transition periods) to sort it out themselves and tell us to come back when we’re done.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1187259515458281472?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
  • Sarah Wollaston on Sky just now understands why some mps are trying to avoid an election but she said that she has switched parties and will support a GE now to seek her mandate

    I do not agree with her stance on brexit but full marks to her and her integrity on this

    It makes a refreshing change
  • kle4 said:

    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
    With some justification
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    If they want to pass it try to seize the order paper for weeks - the ex cons will help.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    Alistair said:
    There's a country-wide swamp that needs draining here. And Tories and Labour sure aren't going to do it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. NorthWales, nothing stopped her resigning to call a by-election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    BoZo is no closer to getting his deal passed than May ever was
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Sarah Wollaston on Sky just now understands why some mps are trying to avoid an election but she said that she has switched parties and will support a GE now to seek her mandate

    I do not agree with her stance on brexit but full marks to her and her integrity on this

    It makes a refreshing change

    Really? Or are the LDs currently up in the polls?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
    With some justification
    Boo hoo. Being picked on is not a valid reason and things are more critical for him than them, it's not hard to find a day, especially when he doesnt plan to work on Brexit right now.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    kle4 said:

    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
    I mean, he has started his Premiership in unprecedented ways, dealing with unprecedented issues. That suggests maybe oversight is needed, even this early on.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    It was raised at the time of the Leadership election that Johnson would be utterly unsuited to be PM because he doesn’t have the skills for the role. It is why those at the time citing his “record” as Mayor were so wrong - a role where he could pick his own team, and had minimal scrutiny from Parliament/GLA.

    At the moment he only retains any serious support in Parliament because of loyalty to the Conservative Party as a point of principle. His personal loyalty must be almost zero (this was never true of past Tory leaders). But he’s stretching the elastic to it’s limits. Not unlike Trump to many extents.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    alex. said:

    The EU should offer a flextension until July 2022. Effectively give the U.K. all options (statutory GE, referendum, May’s deal, Johnson’s deal - latter two with new transition periods) to sort it out themselves and tell us to come back when we’re done.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1187259515458281472?s=20
    Yes it would, but I think they are not thinking of potential downsides. Some remainers are guilty of pretending all will be hunky dory if we stay but odds are good we will continue to be fractious and confused and cause trouble.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    kle4 said:

    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
    With some justification
    With justifiable justification.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    kle4 said:

    148grss said:
    The supposed reason he asked for that length of time is telling- apparently its around when Brown Cameron and May went. He thinks they are picking on him.
    With some justification
    Wollaston is shit-stirring - for political gain for her new party.

    Enjoy it while you can, Dr. Sarah.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited October 2019

    Mr. NorthWales, nothing stopped her resigning to call a by-election.

    Spot on and with the rest

    However, the significance with her statement, apart from her honesty, is that it looks like the Lib Dems are on board for a GE, and as you say with their polling they have a real chance of making considerable gains

    So Boris calls a GE, the SNP and Lib Dems endorse it are labour mps going to try to stop it and face polling sub 20%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    Scott_P said:
    So nothing to do with being signed up to Treaties that supposedly didn't mean much and didn't require a referendum after all but in fact tied our hands, our legislature and our laws then? Right.
  • kle4 said:

    If they want to pass it try to seize the order paper for weeks - the ex cons will help.
    And that is why a GE is coming
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    BoZo is no closer to getting his deal passed than May ever was
    If they'd kept the same procedure he would be. But he obviously does not believe he can pass it or hed try to.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    I don't think Dunt does find it humiliating, just that the people who use the language of "vassalisation" and claim "foreign collusion" by our MPs are now beholden (and hoping) for the French to sort this issue out the way they want.

    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    No,they were completely wrong. They were people who thought that 52% was a sufficient basis for extreme forms of Brexit. It wasn't and isn't. We need to leave. Everything else should be up for grabs and a decision for a future consensus. By insisting on their extreme version they have deeply divided our country. It was shameful, partisan and very likely self defeating.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:
    Bloody Public Relations and Communications Associations sticking their noses in. What's it got to do with them?!!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited October 2019
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    So nothing to do with being signed up to Treaties that supposedly didn't mean much and didn't require a referendum after all but in fact tied our hands, our legislature and our laws then? Right.
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    148grss said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    I don't think Dunt does find it humiliating, just that the people who use the language of "vassalisation" and claim "foreign collusion" by our MPs are now beholden (and hoping) for the French to sort this issue out the way they want.

    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.
    It's the same thing, he thinks they should feel humiliated, wants them to feel humiliated. Maybe some of then are, they get worked up enough.

    But bottom line is it isn't humiliating to wait on the others when we are so conflicted we asked for more time.

    People are too quick to see humiliation for the country or hope for it in their opponents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    148grss said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    I don't think Dunt does find it humiliating, just that the people who use the language of "vassalisation" and claim "foreign collusion" by our MPs are now beholden (and hoping) for the French to sort this issue out the way they want.

    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.
    We haven't left yet. This is just a demonstration of why we are.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    So nothing to do with being signed up to Treaties that supposedly didn't mean much and didn't require a referendum after all but in fact tied our hands, our legislature and our laws then? Right.
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
    Because Parliament passed the Benn Act requiring us to ask nicely and accept a positive answer. This is the fault of nationalists? It's a pathetic argument.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    148grss said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    I don't think Dunt does find it humiliating, just that the people who use the language of "vassalisation" and claim "foreign collusion" by our MPs are now beholden (and hoping) for the French to sort this issue out the way they want.

    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.
    We haven't left yet. This is just a demonstration of why we are.
    You are going to love trade deals and FTA agreements where ideas that aren't in the interest of the EU get rejected.

    And at that moment we will have left the EU.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    I note I'm not the only one struggling with the notion that May gifted Johnson some sort of legacy as PM which he has somehow squandered.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    kle4 said:

    148grss said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    I don't think Dunt does find it humiliating, just that the people who use the language of "vassalisation" and claim "foreign collusion" by our MPs are now beholden (and hoping) for the French to sort this issue out the way they want.

    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.
    It's the same thing, he thinks they should feel humiliated, wants them to feel humiliated. Maybe some of then are, they get worked up enough.

    But bottom line is it isn't humiliating to wait on the others when we are so conflicted we asked for more time.

    People are too quick to see humiliation for the country or hope for it in their opponents.
    I read it differently.

    I read it as him pointing out that if you take them at their word that they should feel humiliated, and their lack of humiliation and indeed eagerness for the French to step in is a sign of their insincerity. That the Leave rhetoric is nothing but that, and all their talk of freedom and Britain alone is just sloganeering in an attempt to ride a political payout for them alone.

    But that's just me.
  • DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    So nothing to do with being signed up to Treaties that supposedly didn't mean much and didn't require a referendum after all but in fact tied our hands, our legislature and our laws then? Right.
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
    Because Parliament passed the Benn Act requiring us to ask nicely and accept a positive answer. This is the fault of nationalists? It's a pathetic argument.
    The Benn Act does nothing of the sort and you know it. Unless us=the PM not the sovereign body of the United Kingdom.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777
    Endillion said:

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    I note I'm not the only one struggling with the notion that May gifted Johnson some sort of legacy as PM which he has somehow squandered.
    Oh he got a legacy alright.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    148grss said:



    It was not the Post EU vision sold of a plucky but important nation punching above its weight.

    I have multiple bridges to sell to anyone who bought than vision.

    Blinkered, empire-nostalgic idiots.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. L, that's the critical problem, I think. And the resolution to it should've, perhaps must've, happened in the past. But didn't.

    We've been integrated far more than most people wanted, and the public were never consulted. And for those who wrongly allege General Elections permitted this, a GE has every other aspect of national politics involved, it isn't a single issue event. On top of that, the public were promised a vote on Lisbon, probably the last such time that we could've signalled dislike of ever-increasing integration short of withdrawal, and then denied it by contemptible politicians who considered manifesto pledges as optional.

    The political centre ground was pro-EU, and moved significantly in that direction away from common ground with the electorate. One of the reasons this will rumble on for a long time, whatever happens in the next week, is that disentangling ourselves will be very difficult, and the political class remains far more pro-EU than the general population (though it's worth noting events have helped kickstart a significant pro-EU movement more widely).

    The next week may very well be turbulent and bitter, but there'll be lots more rancour and argument afterwards too. The week ahead will not resolve anything, it might simply be the moment we take one turning instead of another.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Mango, and yet, it's almost always pro-EU types who keep banging on about the empire.

    If pro-EU people had actually fought against the argument the public was hearing and not the strawman they invented, they might have won the referendum...
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    So nothing to do with being signed up to Treaties that supposedly didn't mean much and didn't require a referendum after all but in fact tied our hands, our legislature and our laws then? Right.
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
    Because Parliament passed the Benn Act requiring us to ask nicely and accept a positive answer. This is the fault of nationalists? It's a pathetic argument.
    The Benn Act does nothing of the sort and you know it. Unless us=the PM not the sovereign body of the United Kingdom.
    The Benn Act specifically has a date chosen by Parliament and then, if that date is refused, a mechanism by which Parliament is happy with a different date. That is control. The part where someone else has the control is whether they just chose to veto another extension and kick us out of the EU on no terms at all (which is unlikely, but Macron has to save face and throw his weight about some how).

    I think a French veto is unlikely. Sure, Macron would rather be dealing with other things and cba with Brexit any more, but he is using up his political capital on other things (and losing friends along the way), so he cannot afford to use more on us when he has Big Plans for the EU.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Local authorities up and down the country are having to plan for an election that might or might not happen. Having to provisionally book polling stations and count venues at a cost of many thousands of pounds (that they might never get back). They are having (obviously) to assume that at least a date of a Thursday, but it seems even that might not be certain. There is the Christmas post to consider.

    I feel sorry for civil servants in the Cabinet Office who are no doubt doing their best to advise and keep informed, but realistically expect the whole thing to be a complete sh*tshow. And god knows what happens if it snows...
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    BoZo is no closer to getting his deal passed than May ever was
    If they'd kept the same procedure he would be. But he obviously does not believe he can pass it or hed try to.
    That is the 'nub' of the problem and no doubt why be decided to cut adrift the ex conservatives including Hammond who voted against on one or both votes. It does not make much of a difference to his numbers as they were in the no column anyway

    It is likely that this is the motive behind a GE to ensure conservative mps are elected fully committed to this deal.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    The EU should offer a flextension until July 2022. Effectively give the U.K. all options (statutory GE, referendum, May’s deal, Johnson’s deal - latter two with new transition periods) to sort it out themselves and tell us to come back when we’re done.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1187259515458281472?s=20
    Yes it would, but I think they are not thinking of potential downsides. Some remainers are guilty of pretending all will be hunky dory if we stay but odds are good we will continue to be fractious and confused and cause trouble.
    It would work better, of course, if we had a fair and honest voting system in this country.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    alex. said:

    It was raised at the time of the Leadership election that Johnson would be utterly unsuited to be PM because he doesn’t have the skills for the role. It is why those at the time citing his “record” as Mayor were so wrong - a role where he could pick his own team, and had minimal scrutiny from Parliament/GLA.

    At the moment he only retains any serious support in Parliament because of loyalty to the Conservative Party as a point of principle. His personal loyalty must be almost zero (this was never true of past Tory leaders). But he’s stretching the elastic to it’s limits. Not unlike Trump to many extents.

    I'm treading on thin ice here in trying to discern the motivations of Conservative MPs, but I think there are a couple of other reasons for substantial numbers of MPs to support him.

    1. They believe he has the best chance of implementing the variant of Brexit that they want to see. In this group are, for example, the ERG backbenchers who were urging the government to bring another programme motion back and schedule sittings through the night and over the weekend.

    2. They believe he has the best chance of helping them to hold their seats at a general election.
  • Endillion said:

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    I note I'm not the only one struggling with the notion that May gifted Johnson some sort of legacy as PM which he has somehow squandered.
    The EU did not cave, we went back to the position before the UK asked for the backstop to be expanded from NI to the whole UK. It was us who asked for that! Then we said actually we dont want it, and somehow brexiteers see that as the EU caving in and the PM as a great negotiator.

    What he is, is a great salesman, who gets people to believe what he wants but never delivers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,777

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    .
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
    Because Parliament passed the Benn Act requiring us to ask nicely and accept a positive answer. This is the fault of nationalists? It's a pathetic argument.
    The Benn Act does nothing of the sort and you know it. Unless us=the PM not the sovereign body of the United Kingdom.
    Benn Act s1(4)

    "The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."
    S3 (1)
    If the European Council decides to agree an extension of the period in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00 pm on 31 October 2019 to the period ending at 11.00pm on 31 January 2020, the Prime Minister must, immediately after such a decision is made, notify the President of the European Council that the United Kingdom agrees to the proposed extension.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Each time this happens I remain astonished people think that it is humiliating. Our political crisis is embarrassing. Waiting on the response of the EU to a request from us is not.
    It's what the mp's who voted in the Benn Act wanted. Not down to Boris in any way.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Endillion said:

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    Rubbish. We could have had this “deal” 2 years ago if we’d wanted it. It is basically the EU’s opening negotiating position!

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Endillion said:

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    I note I'm not the only one struggling with the notion that May gifted Johnson some sort of legacy as PM which he has somehow squandered.
    Indeed. A legacy in which at the start of June the governing party was regularly scoring 20% or less in GE opinion polls, had just polled 9% in a nationwide election and faced a very real existential threat from a new party that was leading in several opinion polls.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    .
    That's irrelevant - the issue is our future is now controlled not be the PM or Parliament but by a decision made in Paris or Berlin to which we can be part of the discussion.

    And this will be the case for most things for the foreseeable future.
    Because Parliament passed the Benn Act requiring us to ask nicely and accept a positive answer. This is the fault of nationalists? It's a pathetic argument.
    The Benn Act does nothing of the sort and you know it. Unless us=the PM not the sovereign body of the United Kingdom.
    Benn Act s1(4)

    "The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks."
    S3 (1)
    If the European Council decides to agree an extension of the period in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00 pm on 31 October 2019 to the period ending at 11.00pm on 31 January 2020, the Prime Minister must, immediately after such a decision is made, notify the President of the European Council that the United Kingdom agrees to the proposed extension.
    That is the UK request, of course we accept it, we asked for it! If the French or EU ask for something different, it is up to parliament to decide, we are not required to accept it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Mr. Mango, and yet, it's almost always pro-EU types who keep banging on about the empire.

    If pro-EU people had actually fought against the argument the public was hearing and not the strawman they invented, they might have won the referendum...

    Maybe if Leave hadn’t lied and lied some more they wouldn’t have won the referendum.

    Stop victim blaming.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Endillion said:

    DougSeal said:


    May never came as close as Boris has to getting a deal through Parliament.

    That’s because the Tory party prevented her from bringing her WAB to Parliament.
    Because her WAB was a disgrace and Boris has a far better one. The Tory rebels who blocked her were principled heroes in doing so.
    I call this derangement the “Corbyn Syndrome” - it’s symptoms are believing that people who defy the whip in a way the patient approves of are “principled heroes” and those that do it in a way the patient disapproves of are “a disgrace”. The condition is named for supporters of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Generally, all parties regard dissident votes that don't help the other side win as pretty harmless. I don't think Corbyn ever cast a vote that helped the Tories win - his dissent was usually when Labour and the Tories were mostly voting together, as with Iraq. But he's notably tolerant of dissenters who vote with the Tories too - more than many of us, frankly.
    Being right is better than being "principled heroes". They said the EU would cave over the backstop, and they did.

    I note I'm not the only one struggling with the notion that May gifted Johnson some sort of legacy as PM which he has somehow squandered.
    Imagine thinking the EU ‘caved’ on the backstop.

    Laughable.
  • alex. said:

    It was raised at the time of the Leadership election that Johnson would be utterly unsuited to be PM because he doesn’t have the skills for the role. It is why those at the time citing his “record” as Mayor were so wrong - a role where he could pick his own team, and had minimal scrutiny from Parliament/GLA.

    At the moment he only retains any serious support in Parliament because of loyalty to the Conservative Party as a point of principle. His personal loyalty must be almost zero (this was never true of past Tory leaders). But he’s stretching the elastic to it’s limits. Not unlike Trump to many extents.

    I'm treading on thin ice here in trying to discern the motivations of Conservative MPs, but I think there are a couple of other reasons for substantial numbers of MPs to support him.

    1. They believe he has the best chance of implementing the variant of Brexit that they want to see. In this group are, for example, the ERG backbenchers who were urging the government to bring another programme motion back and schedule sittings through the night and over the weekend.

    2. They believe he has the best chance of helping them to hold their seats at a general election.
    I agree with you
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