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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big ele
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election
John Bercow, as we all know, is due to step down as Speaker on October 31st coinciding with the article 50 deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU.
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Superb, I'll take even money the Tories (GE or BE) then. Given you get both the Lib Dems and Brexit party as a bonus (Even Labour!) running for you going against me I'm sure someone will snap my hand off for a ton.
Incidentally, I believe Boris Johnson's country house is literally just over the other side of the road from the constituency boundary.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466670-buttigieg-closes-on-biden-warren-in-iowa-poll
Buttigieg +8.9
Sanders +7.6
Biden +6.4
E Warren +5.2
Klobuchar +5.2
O Rourke +5.1
Booker +4
Harris+1.8
Go Pete.
Clinton -22 btw.
https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197
Assuming the 31/10/19 date is kept, isn't there a chance that he will want to let his voice be heard and his vote be used on Brexit issues?
Don't expect him to act in a way that precedent dictates, and the Government may also take this as a chance to operate outside precedent.
I would predict the noisiest ex speaker for many years.
I know the PB Tories are finding the loss of Bercow hard to handle, but the prospect – albeit a narrow one – of Harriet's ascension to the throne will no doubt get them through the lengthening nights.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.
Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.
“We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.
”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...
Firstly the Tories selected last night - Greg Smith will be their candidate. Previously a Hammersmith and Fulham candidate but I've seen him in leaflets / on twitter locally for a while so not as much a parachute as it looks.
If you think everyone is peed off with British politics at the moment, come to Buckingham and you'll realise it's even worse. They feel they have been totally disenfranchised for the past 10 years, their votes don't count at all, and they have been frustrated with the speaker system. I'd expect a good boost at any by-election for candidate or party who pledges to rip up the convention about Speakers getting a free ride (the Lib Dems almost stood in 2017 - they may wish they had seen it through)
Buckingham is a bit of a left behind town, strong Labour vote but actually a lot smaller than you'd think for a county town. The majority of this huge constituency is in the villages, well off, naturally conservative, but Brexit and HS2 (as well as some concerns over imposed growth, the bubbling away issues of the Aylesbury Vale Local Plan saga and the Oxford-Cambridge growth arc which would include a new expressway across the constituency) strike at the heart of this natural conservatism. Some similarities to Brecon in outlook and campaigning challenges.
It's the sort of place that (HS2 aside) loved Cameron, tolerated May, and will loathe Boris Johnson. I would bet on the Greens to keep their deposit here - anti-HS2, anti-Speaker free ride, will play very well. Labour will surely struggle - Corbyn doesn't cut through here. Lib Dems? hard to say - possibly similar to Witney in terms of outlook and infrastructure (less military) and there are strong nearby bases in Aylesbury Oxford and Bedford to pile in from. Not sure whether that will be enough to mount a serious challenge. But the LDs are motivated enough to give it a very good try at the moment.
He seems to have the gravitas and integrity to restore the reputation of a hugely diminished position.
https://twitter.com/liliebayer/status/1186269536041029633
Having said this Germany is clearly more willing to support an extension than France and some of the other EU nations. I suspect there would be intense debate with France pushing for something much shorter than the Germans if they agreed.
Like many leavers, he's become more puritanical since. Whether that's just another example of wider polarisation, or he was lying beforehand, I'm not sure.
I expect this weekend has seen labour mps from leave seats come under a torrent of anger from their constituents
If this is true then Boris gets his brexit but I fear the police will have a mountain of abusive comments to these mps to deal with as evidenced by Lisa today
And of course just as we see the conservative party unite labour could tear themselves apart
What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !
It returns one result: his post just now.
Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
Suspect it may mask some shy Leave voters.
Hmm.
Go Pete.
If Brexit goes through then the Tories will have removed the running sore of Europe that has dogged them for decades. No Tory leader will ever countenance rejoining.
Equally, an exit means Labour are faced with internal warfare as they pull themselves apart over their positioning on rejoining the EU.
If we don't leave then the problems are reversed.
Hopefully we will take a leaf and field David Davis.
And why should the Speaker view the sending of the letter as a sufficient change in circumstances to allow the same motion to be put again?
Barnier is a class act.
...and, yes to your point, weirdly dedicated and energetic!!
Cons: the best possible deal as we leave the EU in a smooth and orderly exit
Voters: Not going to let either of you do what you want.
You blame the remainer parliament whereas it's the voters who decided we would have this impasse. Because the voters are split and didn't the tiniest bit feel beholden to "honour the 2016 referendum".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleanor_Laing
And if it doesn't, why would John Bercow step down as an MP?
(Is that right?
Psychologists have found that even in the absence of a disapproving other, one's behaviour is altered (not buying a shirt if you think your girlfriend will dislike it, for example). Given that, I'd perhaps be inclined to think level-pegging could be better for Leave than Remain.
A bit advantage, relative to last time, for Remain is that they'd have a specific deal to poke holes in, and turnout will be great for them. Remains, ahem, to be seen how that'll work for Leavers.
(ii) People who own Union Jack beach towels.
There is almost zero intersect between these two populations.
An attempt to add them on to the bill now is clearly wrecking. As would a Norway SM style amendment be.
(* being a number that varies according to this week's meltdown.)