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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big ele

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election

John Bercow, as we all know, is due to step down as Speaker on October 31st coinciding with the article 50 deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • edited October 2019
    First - like Lindsay Hoyle.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Only a few more weeks of Bercow. Excellent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    "At the referendum Buckingham voted REMAIN by 51.1%"

    Superb, I'll take even money the Tories (GE or BE) then. Given you get both the Lib Dems and Brexit party as a bonus (Even Labour!) running for you going against me I'm sure someone will snap my hand off for a ton.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited October 2019
    Very easy Con hold.

    Incidentally, I believe Boris Johnson's country house is literally just over the other side of the road from the constituency boundary.
  • RobD said:

    Only a few more weeks of Bercow. Excellent.

    10 days and counting
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    RobD said:

    Only a few more weeks of Bercow. Excellent.

    Bercow has been great , very entertaining and great speaker
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Are these Assembly members still getting paid?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited October 2019
    Nigelb said:
    Me too given I've got my book organised as follows for winners now:

    Buttigieg +8.9
    Sanders +7.6
    Biden +6.4
    E Warren +5.2
    Klobuchar +5.2
    O Rourke +5.1
    Booker +4
    Harris+1.8

    Go Pete.

    Clinton -22 btw.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    I wonder if whoever the new Speaker is will be replaced by the Tories should they win a big majority. Given the tradition is the speaker should alternate between factions, first Tory vs Whig, then Conservative vs Labour, I can see Leavers saying it is their time to get one of their own in the chair. This is especially the case after Bercow was so utterly partisan in his rule-rigging, and I can see the push getting stronger if they try to replace Bercow with another arch Remainer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Brom said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.
    I'm sure all except you will agree with me then :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
  • Very easy Con hold.

    Incidentally, I believe Boris Johnson's country house is literally just over the other side of the road from the constituency boundary.

    Just checked and Chequers is in the Buckingham constituency.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
    Richard Burgon or Mark Francois?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Wow I never realised that Buckingham is so close to Brackley. I think they should ennoble Bercow. I imagine if he tried to act like he does as speaker in the Lords he would get short shrift.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
    Richard Burgon or Mark Francois?
    Diane abbott
  • FPT
    viewcode said:

    Thank you for the article. In most cases it consisted of the author stating that the speaker really meant something different when he said the words. Specifically:

    The Hannan quote
    The author states that Hannan did not mean "threatening our membership in the Single Market" when he said "threatening our place in the Single Market", and made that clear later on in the interview. Fair enough, but it's very badly phrased and the listener could be forgiven for thinking Hannan meant what he actually said.

    The Paterson quote
    The author states that Paterson meant “Only a madman would actually stop trading with the market” when he said “Only a madman would actually leave the market”, and points out that he later said that we would “carry on trading with the market”. This is more badly phrased than Hannan's and would lead the listener to believe that he meant two contradictory things simultaneously

    The Farage quote
    The author states that since Switzerland is not in the Single Market, his statement that “Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland?" cannot be taken as a statement that we should not leave it. Fair enough.

    The Elliott quote
    The author states that when Matthew Elliot said “The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initally (sic) attractive for some business people”, he was outlining the beliefs of those people, not speaking of his own position nor advocating it. Fair enough, but the quote as it stands is exactly true: If I say "Dogs like bones", I am not advocating that I like bones or that you should eat bones, I am telling you that dogs like bones. Matthew said what he said and meant what he said.

    The Banks quote
    the author agrees that Arron Banks said “Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK”, but points out that Banks was not part of the official Leave campaign (he was Leave.EU, not Vote Leave). OK, but again Arron said what he said and meant what he said.

    So of the five quotes, Hannan and Paterson's were bad phrasing on their part and Elliott and Banks's were quoted correctly. He's right about Farage tho.

    (Parenthetically, both Farage and Banks say what they mean and mean what they say and don't usually indulge in sophistry. Annoying, yes, worrying, yes, but unclear or dishonest? Not often. If Farage hadn't turned into a CPAC groupie he'd deserve a place in the Lords)

    To be fair regarding Paterson he didn't misphrase. He clearly means "leave the [global] market" and not "leave the [Single] Market". Even after we leave the EU we would still be part of the global market and would be able to trade with the EU.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Gabs2 said:

    I wonder if whoever the new Speaker is will be replaced by the Tories should they win a big majority. Given the tradition is the speaker should alternate between factions, first Tory vs Whig, then Conservative vs Labour, I can see Leavers saying it is their time to get one of their own in the chair. This is especially the case after Bercow was so utterly partisan in his rule-rigging, and I can see the push getting stronger if they try to replace Bercow with another arch Remainer.

    Con will be happy to support Lindsay I'd think.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).

    Brom said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.
    I'm sure all except you will agree with me then :D
    Harman is too political. Hoyle would be a much better choice. Bring back Betty Boothroyd I say.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Is it a given that he will not continue to sit in the House as an MP for a while?

    Assuming the 31/10/19 date is kept, isn't there a chance that he will want to let his voice be heard and his vote be used on Brexit issues?

    Don't expect him to act in a way that precedent dictates, and the Government may also take this as a chance to operate outside precedent.

    I would predict the noisiest ex speaker for many years.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Are these Assembly members still getting paid?
    Only 50%
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Great to see such muscular support for Harriet right here on PB.

    I know the PB Tories are finding the loss of Bercow hard to handle, but the prospect – albeit a narrow one – of Harriet's ascension to the throne will no doubt get them through the lengthening nights.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Only a few more weeks of Bercow. Excellent.

    Bercow has been great , very entertaining and great speaker
    I agree he was good for the backbenchers, but when one side of the house gives you rapturous applause, while the other remains silent, perhaps you haven’t been so even handed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    Crikey.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    timmo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Are these Assembly members still getting paid?
    Only 50%
    Should be 0%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    I wonder if whoever the new Speaker is will be replaced by the Tories should they win a big majority. Given the tradition is the speaker should alternate between factions, first Tory vs Whig, then Conservative vs Labour, I can see Leavers saying it is their time to get one of their own in the chair. This is especially the case after Bercow was so utterly partisan in his rule-rigging, and I can see the push getting stronger if they try to replace Bercow with another arch Remainer.

    Con will be happy to support Lindsay I'd think.
    Yeah, I think he has a good chance.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
    Richard Burgon or Mark Francois?
    Who’s the one who said she couldn’t be friends with a Tory?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
    Richard Burgon or Mark Francois?
    Who’s the one who said she couldn’t be friends with a Tory?
    I thought she was touted as next Labour leader? :)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    This is local to us.

    Firstly the Tories selected last night - Greg Smith will be their candidate. Previously a Hammersmith and Fulham candidate but I've seen him in leaflets / on twitter locally for a while so not as much a parachute as it looks.

    If you think everyone is peed off with British politics at the moment, come to Buckingham and you'll realise it's even worse. They feel they have been totally disenfranchised for the past 10 years, their votes don't count at all, and they have been frustrated with the speaker system. I'd expect a good boost at any by-election for candidate or party who pledges to rip up the convention about Speakers getting a free ride (the Lib Dems almost stood in 2017 - they may wish they had seen it through)

    Buckingham is a bit of a left behind town, strong Labour vote but actually a lot smaller than you'd think for a county town. The majority of this huge constituency is in the villages, well off, naturally conservative, but Brexit and HS2 (as well as some concerns over imposed growth, the bubbling away issues of the Aylesbury Vale Local Plan saga and the Oxford-Cambridge growth arc which would include a new expressway across the constituency) strike at the heart of this natural conservatism. Some similarities to Brecon in outlook and campaigning challenges.

    It's the sort of place that (HS2 aside) loved Cameron, tolerated May, and will loathe Boris Johnson. I would bet on the Greens to keep their deposit here - anti-HS2, anti-Speaker free ride, will play very well. Labour will surely struggle - Corbyn doesn't cut through here. Lib Dems? hard to say - possibly similar to Witney in terms of outlook and infrastructure (less military) and there are strong nearby bases in Aylesbury Oxford and Bedford to pile in from. Not sure whether that will be enough to mount a serious challenge. But the LDs are motivated enough to give it a very good try at the moment.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    Crikey.
    One of Magic Grandpas kinder, gentler footsoldiers
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    GIN1138 said:


    Con will be happy to support Lindsay I'd think.

    Agreed.

    He seems to have the gravitas and integrity to restore the reputation of a hugely diminished position.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...

    Then I looked up who it was - The German Energy minister! Not exactly a headline scoop.

    Having said this Germany is clearly more willing to support an extension than France and some of the other EU nations. I suspect there would be intense debate with France pushing for something much shorter than the Germans if they agreed.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    Crikey.
    One of Magic Grandpas kinder, gentler footsoldiers
    Why look up where she was born when you can assume, and infer she's not really English/British while doing so?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    Crikey.
    One of Magic Grandpas kinder, gentler footsoldiers
    Why look up where she was born when you can assume and infer she's not really English/British while doing so?
    Yes, this is clearly one of the nicer ones!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    "Letscrackon" wins the 2.30 Windsor by a street
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019

    To be fair regarding Paterson he didn't misphrase. He clearly means "leave the [global] market" and not "leave the [Single] Market". Even after we leave the EU we would still be part of the global market and would be able to trade with the EU.

    Paterson's position, expressed in multiple interviews, was for EFTA and single market membership, ie the Norway option. See prev thread for several quotes, there are lots of them.

    Like many leavers, he's become more puritanical since. Whether that's just another example of wider polarisation, or he was lying beforehand, I'm not sure.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Brom said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...

    Then I looked up who it was - The German Energy minister! Not exactly a headline scoop.

    Having said this Germany is clearly more willing to support an extension than France and some of the other EU nations. I suspect there would be intense debate with France pushing for something much shorter than the Germans if they agreed.
    My guess is we'll see a two-stage offer like last time.. a few weeks to tidy up if we can be arsed to sort ourselves out, or a substantially longer extension if not (my guess is longer than Jan 30 given where we are now and the likely electoral timetable).
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    "Siri, what is a sucker for punishment"
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    "Letscrackon" wins the 2.30 Windsor by a street
    The lab indies in support were very vocal in this regard over the weekend
  • See Lisa Nandy.

    I expect this weekend has seen labour mps from leave seats come under a torrent of anger from their constituents

    If this is true then Boris gets his brexit but I fear the police will have a mountain of abusive comments to these mps to deal with as evidenced by Lisa today

    And of course just as we see the conservative party unite labour could tear themselves apart
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Brom said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...

    Then I looked up who it was - The German Energy minister! Not exactly a headline scoop.

    Having said this Germany is clearly more willing to support an extension than France and some of the other EU nations. I suspect there would be intense debate with France pushing for something much shorter than the Germans if they agreed.
    My guess is we'll see a two-stage offer like last time.. a few weeks to tidy up if we can be arsed to sort ourselves out, or a substantially longer extension if not (my guess is longer than Jan 30 given where we are now and the likely electoral timetable).
    That would really complicate matters since the Benn Act states that the PM must accept the offer (presumably even if the acceptance has to be accompanied with a cheque for a further £50bn). What would we do with a choice?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Labour may well rise in the polls once we're out.
    What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Very easy Con hold.

    Incidentally, I believe Boris Johnson's country house is literally just over the other side of the road from the constituency boundary.

    Just checked and Chequers is in the Buckingham constituency.
    I was thinking of his personal house in North Weston, but yes, good point.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    tpfkar said:

    This is local to us.

    Firstly the Tories selected last night - Greg Smith will be their candidate. Previously a Hammersmith and Fulham candidate but I've seen him in leaflets / on twitter locally for a while so not as much a parachute as it looks.

    If you think everyone is peed off with British politics at the moment, come to Buckingham and you'll realise it's even worse. They feel they have been totally disenfranchised for the past 10 years, their votes don't count at all, and they have been frustrated with the speaker system. I'd expect a good boost at any by-election for candidate or party who pledges to rip up the convention about Speakers getting a free ride (the Lib Dems almost stood in 2017 - they may wish they had seen it through)

    Buckingham is a bit of a left behind town, strong Labour vote but actually a lot smaller than you'd think for a county town. The majority of this huge constituency is in the villages, well off, naturally conservative, but Brexit and HS2 (as well as some concerns over imposed growth, the bubbling away issues of the Aylesbury Vale Local Plan saga and the Oxford-Cambridge growth arc which would include a new expressway across the constituency) strike at the heart of this natural conservatism. Some similarities to Brecon in outlook and campaigning challenges.

    It's the sort of place that (HS2 aside) loved Cameron, tolerated May, and will loathe Boris Johnson. I would bet on the Greens to keep their deposit here - anti-HS2, anti-Speaker free ride, will play very well. Labour will surely struggle - Corbyn doesn't cut through here. Lib Dems? hard to say - possibly similar to Witney in terms of outlook and infrastructure (less military) and there are strong nearby bases in Aylesbury Oxford and Bedford to pile in from. Not sure whether that will be enough to mount a serious challenge. But the LDs are motivated enough to give it a very good try at the moment.

    The Greens won a by-election in Haddenham a few months ago.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    tpfkar said:

    This is local to us.

    Firstly the Tories selected last night - Greg Smith will be their candidate. Previously a Hammersmith and Fulham candidate but I've seen him in leaflets / on twitter locally for a while so not as much a parachute as it looks.

    If you think everyone is peed off with British politics at the moment, come to Buckingham and you'll realise it's even worse. They feel they have been totally disenfranchised for the past 10 years, their votes don't count at all, and they have been frustrated with the speaker system. I'd expect a good boost at any by-election for candidate or party who pledges to rip up the convention about Speakers getting a free ride (the Lib Dems almost stood in 2017 - they may wish they had seen it through)

    Buckingham is a bit of a left behind town, strong Labour vote but actually a lot smaller than you'd think for a county town. The majority of this huge constituency is in the villages, well off, naturally conservative, but Brexit and HS2 (as well as some concerns over imposed growth, the bubbling away issues of the Aylesbury Vale Local Plan saga and the Oxford-Cambridge growth arc which would include a new expressway across the constituency) strike at the heart of this natural conservatism. Some similarities to Brecon in outlook and campaigning challenges.

    It's the sort of place that (HS2 aside) loved Cameron, tolerated May, and will loathe Boris Johnson. I would bet on the Greens to keep their deposit here - anti-HS2, anti-Speaker free ride, will play very well. Labour will surely struggle - Corbyn doesn't cut through here. Lib Dems? hard to say - possibly similar to Witney in terms of outlook and infrastructure (less military) and there are strong nearby bases in Aylesbury Oxford and Bedford to pile in from. Not sure whether that will be enough to mount a serious challenge. But the LDs are motivated enough to give it a very good try at the moment.

    Buckingham is my dad's constituency and was mine when Milton Keynes was included it (which is why older data, such as Maxwell's tenure, is unrelaible). I don't really think this is especially anti-Boris territory but it is quite agricultural and there's no way this constituency would go for a no-deal Brexit. There's quite a lot of commuter-belt housing (both to MK and London) and so I think that the LibDems would expect to have a chance but in practice I'd put money on them falling short (unless Bercow stands as an Independent!!).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour may well rise in the polls once we're out.
    What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !

    The behaviour of MPs/parties who said they would implement the result of the referendum at GE 17, then did all they could to prevent that implementation once elected will hopefully stick long in the memory of voters
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Gabs, Hoyle is the favourite to get it, and seems widely respected for his neutrality. Wouldn't imagine a rush to replace him.
  • FPT
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    I expect only a few thousand people would have seen Farage's poster if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched quite so loudly about it. It was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    The £350m per week would have had far less impact if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched about how it was only £250m per week. Again it was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    Well done to all the squealers and bitchers.

    But just a week ago you said "news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind".
    I don't think I did.
    You did. Here's your full quote, I've just copied and pasted it:
    "You seem to think that it matters what the BBC says but news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind. In fact we could and should shut down all the newspapers in the country and it wouldn't change a thing."
    If anyone believes @Noo, then paste his "quote" into the Vanilla search function.

    It returns one result: his post just now.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    He knows how to have a good time
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
  • We really need the thoughts of @Scrapheap_as_was on this thread.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    FPT

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    I expect only a few thousand people would have seen Farage's poster if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched quite so loudly about it. It was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    The £350m per week would have had far less impact if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched about how it was only £250m per week. Again it was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    Well done to all the squealers and bitchers.

    But just a week ago you said "news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind".
    I don't think I did.
    You did. Here's your full quote, I've just copied and pasted it:
    "You seem to think that it matters what the BBC says but news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind. In fact we could and should shut down all the newspapers in the country and it wouldn't change a thing."
    If anyone believes @Noo, then paste his "quote" into the Vanilla search function.

    It returns one result: his post just now.
    Oh, I see you're "squealing and bitching" about untruths. Feel different when the boot's on the other foot, doesn't it?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour may well rise in the polls once we're out.
    What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !

    To get Boris negotiating the next stage.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    DavidL said:

    Brom said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...

    Then I looked up who it was - The German Energy minister! Not exactly a headline scoop.

    Having said this Germany is clearly more willing to support an extension than France and some of the other EU nations. I suspect there would be intense debate with France pushing for something much shorter than the Germans if they agreed.
    My guess is we'll see a two-stage offer like last time.. a few weeks to tidy up if we can be arsed to sort ourselves out, or a substantially longer extension if not (my guess is longer than Jan 30 given where we are now and the likely electoral timetable).
    That would really complicate matters since the Benn Act states that the PM must accept the offer (presumably even if the acceptance has to be accompanied with a cheque for a further £50bn). What would we do with a choice?
    The Benn Act realistically says it's up to the Commons: if Boris spits the dummy he can put it to a vote to get him off the hook (ie the requirement for him to approve disappears if the Commons votes down a motion to similar effect).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, somewhat surprised by that.

    Suspect it may mask some shy Leave voters.

    Hmm.
  • Mr. Eagles, somewhat surprised by that.

    Suspect it may mask some shy Leave voters.

    Hmm.

    Suspect = I wish
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Got to say Bercow looks particularly grumpy this afternoon.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    And of course just as we see the conservative party unite labour could tear themselves apart

    My view has long been that the Brexit outcome is an existential event for both parties.

    If Brexit goes through then the Tories will have removed the running sore of Europe that has dogged them for decades. No Tory leader will ever countenance rejoining.

    Equally, an exit means Labour are faced with internal warfare as they pull themselves apart over their positioning on rejoining the EU.

    If we don't leave then the problems are reversed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Top 3 place in Iowa is crucial to have much of a chance going forward.
  • In my experience ‘shy’ is not adjective I’d use to describe Leavers.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    isam said:

    "Letscrackon" wins the 2.30 Windsor by a street
    Those MPs should in future be redirected to meetings of the 1922 Committee rather than the PLP.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    SunnyJim said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Con will be happy to support Lindsay I'd think.

    Agreed.

    He seems to have the gravitas and integrity to restore the reputation of a hugely diminished position.
    You want gravitas and integrity? Join the campaign for Harriet – the woman for our times!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).
    Richard Burgon or Mark Francois?
    Diane abbott
    Step forward Peter Bone.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Makes sense. He has much useful knowledge from the previous phase.

    Hopefully we will take a leaf and field David Davis.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Can someone tell me - if a vote for the deal today meant Johnson could withdraw his request for an extension, why would the MPs who voted for Letwin on Saturday enable him to do so?

    And why should the Speaker view the sending of the letter as a sufficient change in circumstances to allow the same motion to be put again?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Several were Tories - and Brexiteers!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    Anorak said:

    "Siri, what is a sucker for punishment"

    Barnier is a class act.

    ...and, yes to your point, weirdly dedicated and energetic!!
  • Noo said:

    FPT

    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    I expect only a few thousand people would have seen Farage's poster if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched quite so loudly about it. It was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    The £350m per week would have had far less impact if the remainiacs hadn't squealed and bitched about how it was only £250m per week. Again it was the squealing and bitching that got the news coverage.

    Well done to all the squealers and bitchers.

    But just a week ago you said "news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind".
    I don't think I did.
    You did. Here's your full quote, I've just copied and pasted it:
    "You seem to think that it matters what the BBC says but news coverage doesn't matter, it doesn't change a single person's mind. In fact we could and should shut down all the newspapers in the country and it wouldn't change a thing."
    If anyone believes @Noo, then paste his "quote" into the Vanilla search function.

    It returns one result: his post just now.
    Oh, I see you're "squealing and bitching" about untruths. Feel different when the boot's on the other foot, doesn't it?
    I'm not squealing or bitching, not even a little bit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Several were Tories - and Brexiteers!
    I can only assume they were agreeing with you to get you to stop wittering on about similarities between Brexit and Nazism.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister
    The unconventional “form” of Boris Johnson’s extension request is irrelevant to the EU, the European commission has confirmed, as Germany’s economic affairs minister said “it goes without saying” that a further Brexit delay would be granted.

    Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed either a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

    “We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then certainly get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.

    ”If the British are to opt for one of the longer-term options, that is new elections or a new referendum, then it goes without saying that the European Union should do it, for me anyway.”...

    I do not think this is in doubt. The EU will grant an extension. It will be either a short one to get the Deal through, a medium one for a GE, or a long one for Ref2. Those ranked in decreasing order of likelihood.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Several were Tories - and Brexiteers!
    I can only assume they were agreeing with you to get you to stop wittering on about similarities between Brexit and Nazism.
    You are wrong.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour may well rise in the polls once we're out.
    What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !

    The behaviour of MPs/parties who said they would implement the result of the referendum at GE 17, then did all they could to prevent that implementation once elected will hopefully stick long in the memory of voters
    Lab: no Tory deal
    Cons: the best possible deal as we leave the EU in a smooth and orderly exit
    Voters: Not going to let either of you do what you want.

    You blame the remainer parliament whereas it's the voters who decided we would have this impasse. Because the voters are split and didn't the tiniest bit feel beholden to "honour the 2016 referendum".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).

    Brom said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.
    I'm sure all except you will agree with me then :D
    Harman is too political. Hoyle would be a much better choice. Bring back Betty Boothroyd I say.
    Eleanor Laing playing for the Leaver vote

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleanor_Laing

  • RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Justin reminds me of that infamous propagandist and whipper upperer of hysteria Joseph Goebbels.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Why would the government give John Bercow a peerage? It would cut across their lines to take.

    And if it doesn't, why would John Bercow step down as an MP?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Several were Tories - and Brexiteers!
    I can only assume they were agreeing with you to get you to stop wittering on about similarities between Brexit and Nazism.
    There's a me in assume and there is an ass!

    (Is that right? :/ )
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Eagles, I'm sure the gentlemen that patronise the Salmon Pink Trouser Emporium are mostly pro-EU, but there was some polling a while back suggesting Remainers were more clustered (which makes sense with the urban/rural divide) and less tolerant than Leavers when it comes to accepting alternative views within social groups.

    Psychologists have found that even in the absence of a disapproving other, one's behaviour is altered (not buying a shirt if you think your girlfriend will dislike it, for example). Given that, I'd perhaps be inclined to think level-pegging could be better for Leave than Remain.

    A bit advantage, relative to last time, for Remain is that they'd have a specific deal to poke holes in, and turnout will be great for them. Remains, ahem, to be seen how that'll work for Leavers.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    If passing a Customs Union amendment is likely to have the effect of the WAIB being withdrawn, why would the DUP not vote for it simply as an act of sabotage?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Meeks, to stop Bercow being an MP.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Brom said:

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.

    (i) People who like Harriet Harman.
    (ii) People who own Union Jack beach towels.

    There is almost zero intersect between these two populations.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    I also hang around like-minded people.
    Several were Tories - and Brexiteers!
    I can only assume they were agreeing with you to get you to stop wittering on about similarities between Brexit and Nazism.
    There's a me in assume and there is an ass!

    (Is that right? :/ )
    Oops, I rely too much on autocorrect these days
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,498

    malcolmg said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    She would be garbage , hopefully consigned to the bin where she belongs. Cannot think of a worse choice ( well Gove would be ).

    Brom said:

    I'm sure everyone will agree with me that Harriet would be a fantastic choice. However, I don't think she will win.

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.
    I'm sure all except you will agree with me then :D
    Harman is too political. Hoyle would be a much better choice. Bring back Betty Boothroyd I say.
    Harriet is the lady for our times: a winner for leavers and remainers alike. The consensual choice!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s not only Justin sending demented letters to MPs:

    https://www.twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1186219256993800197

    I can assure you that my messages were far more polite and considered.
    Last night in a pub discussion which contained Tory Brexiteers , I referred to the manure thrown in my direction yesterday as a result of my reference to the 1933 Enabling Act in the Reichstag. I read out my message , and not one of those present considered its content to be remotely anti-semitic.I am greatly reassured by that.
    Was that before or after you all got up and sang Tomorrow Belongs to Me?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour may well rise in the polls once we're out.
    What's the point of voting Tory once we're out many will ask !

    The behaviour of MPs/parties who said they would implement the result of the referendum at GE 17, then did all they could to prevent that implementation once elected will hopefully stick long in the memory of voters
    Lab: no Tory deal
    Cons: the best possible deal as we leave the EU in a smooth and orderly exit
    Voters: Not going to let either of you do what you want.

    You blame the remainer parliament whereas it's the voters who decided we would have this impasse. Because the voters are split and didn't the tiniest bit feel beholden to "honour the 2016 referendum".
    Fair enough. A referendum between the Tory deal and the Labour deal then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    I think a 2nd ref addon to the bill is legally fine as we don't have to negotiate a 2nd ref (Aside from an extension) to the WAIB but Customs Union discussions are surely for the "next phase" ?!
    An attempt to add them on to the bill now is clearly wrecking. As would a Norway SM style amendment be.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    Brom said:

    I think next to no one will agree with you. Hoyle has been an excellent deputy and always seems fair and courteous. It makes far more sense to have someone who already knows the role and is good at it.

    (i) People who like Harriet Harman.
    (ii) People who own Union Jack beach towels.

    There is almost zero intersect between these two populations.
    I have never seen a union jack beachtowel. I believe you just made that up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Meeks, to stop Bercow being an MP.

    It would be an interesting message to send to the plebeian Leavers who have been constantly told that John Bercow is Public Enemy Number *.

    (* being a number that varies according to this week's meltdown.)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    In my experience ‘shy’ is not adjective I’d use to describe Leavers.

    Arrogant and unable to grasp how Incompetent they are is a starting point.
This discussion has been closed.