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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive ch

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive chart

To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • First!!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited April 2013
    Interesting charts, thanks.

    I guess we'll see the accuracy of these predictions in a few days. I personally think the story will be split three ways: the fall in the Conservative voteshare and seats; Labour's increase, but most of all, the rise of UKIP.

    But trying to predict the media narrative is difficult, as Tim knows. ;-)

    Note that on Chrome the top chart has an unnecessary vertical scrollbar.

    (From a quick glance and play the charts appears to be pure HTML5 and SVG, with an image fallback for older browsers. It's a great display of the useful capabilities of the modern browsers.)

    (Edit: scrollbar now fixed)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Agree, Mr Jessop. Personally I suspect that the rise of UKIP will be the dominant narrative, but as you observe, it's hard to predict these things - as one of the Tim Team recently found out.

    The graphs are impressive from a technical point of view; shame about the scrollbar but snazzy nevertheless.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    It has been suggested that Britain should
    TEMPORARILY leave the convention on human
    rights so it could deport Abu Qatada.
    Would you support or oppose Britain
    temporarily leaving the convention on human
    rights to deport Abu Qatada?

    Support: 52%
    Oppose: 30%
    DK: 18%
    only the LDs have a majority to support Oppose

    In recent weeks the government have started to
    introduce a number of different changes to the
    welfare and benefit system, including
    introducing a cap on the total benefits a
    household can receive, limiting the annual rise
    in benefits to below the rate of inflation,
    reducing council tax benefit and reducing
    housing benefit for social housing tenants with
    what the government see as spare rooms (often
    referred to as the "bedroom tax").
    On balance do you support or oppose these
    changes to the benefit system?

    Support: 56%
    Oppose: 31%
    DK: 12%
    only LAB support Oppose

    Also starting in some areas this month are
    trials of a new system where benefits including
    jobseekers allowance, income support, working
    tax credits, child tax credits and housing
    benefit are all being replaced by a new single
    benefit called the Universal Credit
    .
    In principle, do you think is it a good or bad
    idea to combine all these benefits into one
    single benefit?

    Good: 50%
    Bad: 27%
    DK: 22%
    Only LAB think tis a bad idea

    And in principle, do you think is it right or
    wrong to stop the benefits of unemployed
    people who do not actively look for work?

    Right: 77%
    Wrong: 12%
    DK: 11%

    In 2004 doctors contracts for GPs changed so
    that GPs no longer had the responsibility to
    provide out-of-hours services, and could
    instead opt-out and allow out-of-hours services
    for their surgery to be provided by external
    companies, contracted to the NHS.
    Do you think it is right or wrong to allow GPs to
    opt-out of providing out-of-hours services?

    Right: 23%
    Wrong: 63%
    DK: 13%


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Do you think each of the following would make
    a better or worse Prime Minister than David
    Cameron?

    Ed Miliband
    Better: 27%
    Worse: 41%
    Neither: 20%
    DK: 12%

    Nick Clegg:
    Better: 11%
    Worse: 52%
    Neither: 27%
    DK:10%

    Nigel Farage:
    Better: 11%
    Worse: 40%
    Neither:19%
    DK: 30%
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    If Labour and UKIP do well on Thursday, the story will be all about the Tories over the following days. However, as someone who believes we are heading for another hung Parliament in 2015, I suspect it won't be that straightforward. Labour will not do too well in the south, UKIP's performance will be patchy, the Tories will not quite have a disastrous night, the LDs will do OK. There'll be an awful lot of spin, but essentially the story will remain the same: the country is pretty well split down the middle. It has been since 2010 and will be in 2015.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Thinking about the government's economic
    policies, which of the following best reflects
    your view?

    The government should stick to its current strategy
    of reducing the deficit, even if this means growth
    remains slow. 33%(+1)

    The government should change its strategy to
    concentrate on growth, even if this means the
    deficit stays longer or gets worse 38%(-3)

    Neither: 8%(-1)
    Not Sure: 21%(+3)

    How do you think the financial situation of your
    household will change over the next 12
    months?

    Better: 11%(0)
    Same: 38% (+4)
    Worse: 45%(-5)
    DK: 5%(0)


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Truth or Gossip?

    Ed Miliband faced a growing revolt last night over his secret meeting with Respect MP George Galloway after it emerged that Mr Miliband had congratulated him on the way he beat Labour in a by-election.

    The controversy over Mr Miliband’s talks with Mr Galloway – who was thrown out of the party in 2003 for his attacks on Tony Blair over the Iraq War – intensified after full details of the meeting in the Labour leader’s office were revealed for the first time.

    Well-placed sources have told The Mail on Sunday that:

    Mr Miliband said he wanted further meetings – but in a secret location so Labour MPs did not find out about it.

    The two discussed Mr Galloway’s fierce criticism of US foreign policy and opposition to British troops in Afghanistan.

    They had a ‘warm’ chat and talked about Mr Galloway’s friendship with Mr Miliband’s late father, Marxist academic Ralph Miliband.

    The Labour leader said he admired Mr Galloway’s campaigning skills and his ability to woo ethnic minority voters........

    A Labour MP said last night: ‘Ed Miliband should spend less time listening to people like Galloway who are despised by most Labour activists and more time listening to his own MPs.’

    The new account of the meeting in Mr Miliband’s Commons office makes a mockery of claims by the leader’s aides that the two men met briefly to discuss boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315925/
  • SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Where I live in the Havant ward, there is an election for county council and district (latter caused by resignation). The five main parties are standing for both seats. So far I've had campaign leaflets from the Conservatives, Labour (county candidate only ) and Greens. The Green leaflet was impressive with lot of specific local detail criticising developments in greenfield sites and advocating more brownfield site development.
    This is a big issue where I live. I attended a parish council meeting last week and usually about 2 people turn up. This time there was about 50 and it got very heated.
    There are a lot of disaffected Conservatives; it's a question of whether they vote Green or UKIP.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    History Test - Try IT!

    At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited April 2013
    Well placed sources. Mmm
    Also I struggled to keep down my evening meal after reading John Rentool in the Independent.
    Does he not realise that "The Master" is a baddie in Dr Who?
    Financier said:

    Truth or Gossip?

    Ed Miliband faced a growing revolt last night over his secret meeting with Respect MP George Galloway after it emerged that Mr Miliband had congratulated him on the way he beat Labour in a by-election.....


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315925/

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @financier

    The 2004 GP contract opting out of out of hours cover was inevitable. The increase in out of hours calls particularly for trivial things, the increase in part time GPs and feminisation of the workforce made the old system impossible to continue, and there can be no return. The BMA warned the DoH that they could not provide the service as cheaply, but the arrogant civil servants did not believe them.

    With the new CCGs responsibility is back with GPs but on a collective basis.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715


    Interesting comment from a family member who was a senior NHS administrator and is now a "management consultant" to the NHS. Many GP's, espeically in smaller practices, feel themselves more isolated from the decision making process with CCG's than they did with PCTs.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @foxinsoxuk
    I needed to call the out of hours service a few years ago and I was happier that my own GP was not being called out as I like him and would have been less likely to seek help if I thought I was inconveniencing him and disturbing his weekend.

    It worked fine for me being given a health centre to attend and being treated by a dedicated out-of-hours doctor.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Miliband has got himself into all sorts of trouble with this Galloway meeting. Should have just briefed on his own terms instead of trying to keep secrets.

    http://redmolucca.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/ed-miliband-and-me/
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Never mind the out of hours sevice, how about the in hours service? I had a nasty eye infection and it was very troublesome. when I rang the surgery, they were closed for "training".
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    If EdM wanted "to keep secrets", I doubt he would have held it in his private office where all can see who his visitors are.
    Millsy said:

    Miliband has got himself into all sorts of trouble with this Galloway meeting. Should have just briefed on his own terms instead of trying to keep secrets.

    http://redmolucca.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/ed-miliband-and-me/

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @foxinsoxuk
    I needed to call the out of hours service a few years ago and I was happier that my own GP was not being called out as I like him and would have been less likely to seek help if I thought I was inconveniencing him and disturbing his weekend.

    It worked fine for me being given a health centre to attend and being treated by a dedicated out-of-hours doctor.

    The better areas have GP co-operatives covering, but some of the PCTs have commissioned less good services from private companies that rely on locums and non medical staff. The experience of Service in Cornwall is illustrative, and has been in the news again this week for manipulating figures to meet targets:

    http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/31/serco-gp-service-cornwall

    It is worth noting that Serco got the contract in 2006 under the last Labour govt. This privatisation and target driven culture is why I do not trust Labour on the NHS, and why I left the Labour party.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    YouGov - own supporters' rating:

    Net "well" (2010 vote)
    Cameron: +83 (+44)
    Miliband: +36 (+20)
    Clegg: +33 (-27)
    Farage: +86 (n/a)

    Meanwhile YouGov also have a poll the Scottish Separatists will want to dismiss:

    60% of Scots ‘unconvinced’ by Alex Salmond's case for independence

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/223096-60-of-scots-unconvinced-by-alex-salmonds-case-for-independence/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2013
    @CarlottaVance These supporters' rating could just reflect the nature of the parties and their relationship with the leadership. The left has never idolised its leaders in the same way as the right.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    On YouGov, the only change on last week is MOE Con -1 and Ukip +1.

    Interesting couple of questions. One highlighted in the header, how would people vote if there was a mystical 4-way marginal, which shows if Ukip stand a chance of winning they siphon off another chunk of voters from the Conservatives (and to a lesser extend from the Lib Dems and Labour). But of course the reverse is true and Ukip will have no chance in any seats, and many of those voters will go back to the blues.

    The other: would Ed Miliband made a better or worse PM than David Cameron.

    All voters:

    Better 27%
    Worse 41%
    Neither 20%

    Labour voters:

    Better 70%
    Worse 6%
    Neither 18%

    Lab10 voters:

    Better 58%
    Worse 9%
    Neither 25%

    LD10 voters:

    Better 34%
    Worse 34%
    Neither 23%

    Hardly setting the world alight with his radical ideas for change.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jonathan, considering the loyalty (either cast iron or sheep-like) of Labour to its leadership and the willingness of the blues to either criticise their leaders or commit regicide every second Tuesday that comment is not necessarily one I agree with entirely.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    @old_labour

    So instead he let it come out in a negative way in the Mail on Sunday?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    @foxinsoxuk
    I needed to call the out of hours service a few years ago and I was happier that my own GP was not being called out as I like him and would have been less likely to seek help if I thought I was inconveniencing him and disturbing his weekend.

    It worked fine for me being given a health centre to attend and being treated by a dedicated out-of-hours doctor.

    The better areas have GP co-operatives covering, but some of the PCTs have commissioned less good services from private companies that rely on locums and non medical staff. The experience of Service in Cornwall is illustrative, and has been in the news again this week for manipulating figures to meet targets:

    http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/31/serco-gp-service-cornwall

    It is worth noting that Serco got the contract in 2006 under the last Labour govt. This privatisation and target driven culture is why I do not trust Labour on the NHS, and why I left the Labour party.
    As I've mentioned before, my experience of GP services as I've moved around the country have been decidedly mixed. My GP practice in Romsey (Hampshire) was brilliant in so many ways on the service side; my current GP practice is, sadly, abysmal.

    The NHS is (and probably always has been) a postcode lottery when it comes to quality of service.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    @Morris_Dancer

    Labour supporters love nothing more than grumbling about the leadership, but when push comes to shove are loyal.
    Tory supporters loudly proclaim loyalty right up to (and sometimes including) the moment they wield the knife.
  • I post as the UKIP candidate both in a SCDC by-election, and in the Cambridgeshire Council election, both this Thursday.
    This site's editorial attitude, the Smithson view, seems to be exactly right on two points: hardly anybody is interested in Europe. And secondly, of those who are willing to vote for, or even to consider voting for, UKIP very few are doing so because of BOO.
    The only other candidate showing any interest is the outstanding LD current councillor, Susan van de Ven.
    I'm getting a warm reception--'I'm pleased to see you standing, and walking out-and-about'. Will you consider voting UKIP on Thursday? 'No, because Susie....' Will you vote UKIP in the Euro-elections next year: Susie's not standing? 'Possibly. I'll definitely vote.' Hardly a ringing endorsement for getting out of the EU, especially said while talking to the UKIP candidate wearing his party's rosette.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jonathan, the only reason Labour didn't knife Brown was because they kept cocking it up. Blair was knifed, but it took Brown 10 years of unrivalled power and a stupid comment by Blair to actually make it happen.

    Even the Lib Dems can do proper leadership coups.
  • tonyhilltonyhill Posts: 3
    The feedback that I have been getting suggests that the main story from the elections on Thursday will be the success of UKIP. This will be bad news for the good governance of our counties, particularly where UKIP hold the balance of power, which could be in a number of places. An influx of councillors who have no settled policies, who are not familiar with how governance actually works, who have eccentric and simplistic ideas about the political process, and in many cases will not have expected to be elected is, at the very least, going to try the patience of council officers and provide plenty of copy for local newspaper editors.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, the only reason Labour didn't knife Brown was because they kept cocking it up. Blair was knifed, but it took Brown 10 years of unrivalled power and a stupid comment by Blair to actually make it happen.

    Even the Lib Dems can do proper leadership coups.

    You only need to be good at leadership coups when you are stupid enough to elect characters like IDS in the first place.
  • Jonathan said:

    Mr. Jonathan, the only reason Labour didn't knife Brown was because they kept cocking it up. Blair was knifed, but it took Brown 10 years of unrivalled power and a stupid comment by Blair to actually make it happen.

    Even the Lib Dems can do proper leadership coups.

    You only need to be good at leadership coups when you are stupid enough to elect characters like IDS in the first place.
    And what kind of election brought Gordon Brown to power then?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    I post as the UKIP candidate both in a SCDC by-election, and in the Cambridgeshire Council election, both this Thursday.
    This site's editorial attitude, the Smithson view, seems to be exactly right on two points: hardly anybody is interested in Europe. And secondly, of those who are willing to vote for, or even to consider voting for, UKIP very few are doing so because of BOO.
    The only other candidate showing any interest is the outstanding LD current councillor, Susan van de Ven.
    I'm getting a warm reception--'I'm pleased to see you standing, and walking out-and-about'. Will you consider voting UKIP on Thursday? 'No, because Susie....' Will you vote UKIP in the Euro-elections next year: Susie's not standing? 'Possibly. I'll definitely vote.' Hardly a ringing endorsement for getting out of the EU, especially said while talking to the UKIP candidate wearing his party's rosette.

    A generous and honest post that does you credit.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    What was the actual NEV in 2009?
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    The County Coucil elections have very skewed national vote shares becoase of the weakness of Labour in rural England and the stregth of Indpendents.This gives the Lib dem share a boost.
    So in the 2009 elections estimated vote shares fom the BBC with variance against ICM April 2009 poll were Con 38%(-2),Lab 23%(-7),Lib 28(+9).
    The most relevant measure of changes in national opinion is to compare the posls in April 2013 with the 2009 using the gold standard ICM.This shows changes of CON-9,Lab +9,Lib-4 UKIP +8.This in turn gives swings of Con to Lab 9%,Con to Lib 2.5%,Lib to Lab 6.5%,Con to UKIP 8.5%.
    Translating this into seat change sdoes not give massive shifts because firstly there are not that many Con Lab marginals but quite a lot on these swings of Con /UKIPmarginals.Predicting seat shifts from LD is tricky -gain thre are not taat many LD/l marginals particularly in the Counties.The small Con/LD swing is within the margin of error and so the psssible gains from cons could easily blow way leaving the Lib dem losses to labour which could be claser to 50.The CON/ UKIP swing is in my view likely to be nearer to 10% hence the UKIP gain sof near 100 I am expecting.
    So overall compared to Thrasher and Rawklings model brackets) my figures are similar for Con losses-314(-310,less for Labour gains +218(350) less for Lib Dem losses -3 (-130) though could be up to -50) and more gains for UKIP +98(+40)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @foxinsoxuk
    I needed to call the out of hours service a few years ago and I was happier that my own GP was not being called out as I like him and would have been less likely to seek help if I thought I was inconveniencing him and disturbing his weekend.

    It worked fine for me being given a health centre to attend and being treated by a dedicated out-of-hours doctor.

    The better areas have GP co-operatives covering, but some of the PCTs have commissioned less good services from private companies that rely on locums and non medical staff. The experience of Service in Cornwall is illustrative, and has been in the news again this week for manipulating figures to meet targets:

    http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/31/serco-gp-service-cornwall

    It is worth noting that Serco got the contract in 2006 under the last Labour govt. This privatisation and target driven culture is why I do not trust Labour on the NHS, and why I left the Labour party.
    As I've mentioned before, my experience of GP services as I've moved around the country have been decidedly mixed. My GP practice in Romsey (Hampshire) was brilliant in so many ways on the service side; my current GP practice is, sadly, abysmal.

    The NHS is (and probably always has been) a postcode lottery when it comes to quality of service.
    I agree, Romsey has a very good practice, my father is registered there, but things are more patchy elsewhere. Generally, suburban and small town practices are good, simply because they are more pleasant places to live so attract good GPs.

    There are some practices in Leicester run by strings of Locums with no continuity of care, and some showing the beginnings of national chains of branded practices:

    http://www.thepracticeplc.com

    This is how the future NHS looks, like it or not.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The Marr show just had a conversation about UKIP, with the guests being a Lib Dem MP and a conservative-supporting journalist. Both tore into them, one saying they didn't stand for anything and the other saying their candidates were jokes and they were just a protest party. No push back from the presenter.

    Can anyone imagine the BBC doing the same thing to the Lib Dems?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    The jolly thing about Sunday Times Yougovs is that they ask so many questions that there's something to please everyone. Various posts below illustrate that, and I'll add to them by observing that the Osborne relaunch (No triple dip! Weighty warning to Salmond1 Hammer of the workshy!) has flopped. At the end of February his rating (measured by "Should he be replaced?") was -33. After all that effort it is now -29.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lhnabrjag7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260413.pdf
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    tonyhill said:

    The feedback that I have been getting suggests that the main story from the elections on Thursday will be the success of UKIP. This will be bad news for the good governance of our counties, particularly where UKIP hold the balance of power, which could be in a number of places. An influx of councillors who have no settled policies, who are not familiar with how governance actually works, who have eccentric and simplistic ideas about the political process, and in many cases will not have expected to be elected is, at the very least, going to try the patience of council officers and provide plenty of copy for local newspaper editors.

    All probably quite true Tony although I would make two points. Firstly that the fact the people are new to a job is no reason not to support them. If that were the case we would still be back with Whigs and Tories. And secondly that your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that we currently have anything approaching good governance in our counties. Something I would dispute very strongly in many cases.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    I post as the UKIP candidate both in a SCDC by-election, and in the Cambridgeshire Council election, both this Thursday.
    This site's editorial attitude, the Smithson view, seems to be exactly right on two points: hardly anybody is interested in Europe. And secondly, of those who are willing to vote for, or even to consider voting for, UKIP very few are doing so because of BOO.
    The only other candidate showing any interest is the outstanding LD current councillor, Susan van de Ven.
    I'm getting a warm reception--'I'm pleased to see you standing, and walking out-and-about'. Will you consider voting UKIP on Thursday? 'No, because Susie....' Will you vote UKIP in the Euro-elections next year: Susie's not standing? 'Possibly. I'll definitely vote.' Hardly a ringing endorsement for getting out of the EU, especially said while talking to the UKIP candidate wearing his party's rosette.

    David, if it's any consolation I know of at least one person in Melbourn who says he's going to vote for you. And I think his missus might do the same. It's always difficult to get people's true intention to vote, and especially their reasons, but he is >60, approaching imminent retirement, and fed up with the other parties.

    I think in his case it very much comes down to giving the other parties a bloodied nose rather than any definitive policy.

    However our UKIP candidate in a nearby constituency comes across rather poorly in the literature.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    That YouGov poll:

    Imagine that in your own constituency at the
    next election the Conservatives, Labour,
    Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
    all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
    How would you vote?

    Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Socrates said:

    That YouGov poll:

    Imagine that in your own constituency at the
    next election the Conservatives, Labour,
    Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
    all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
    How would you vote?

    Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%

    That is a really interesting question and result. And contains within it the way the Tories should be dealing with UKIP. "Can't win, Won't win"

    That Labour %age should trouble them. The assumption that the Labour vote is soft, might not be true.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    tonyhill said:

    The feedback that I have been getting suggests that the main story from the elections on Thursday will be the success of UKIP. This will be bad news for the good governance of our counties, particularly where UKIP hold the balance of power, which could be in a number of places. An influx of councillors who have no settled policies, who are not familiar with how governance actually works, who have eccentric and simplistic ideas about the political process, and in many cases will not have expected to be elected is, at the very least, going to try the patience of council officers and provide plenty of copy for local newspaper editors.

    All probably quite true Tony although I would make two points. Firstly that the fact the people are new to a job is no reason not to support them. If that were the case we would still be back with Whigs and Tories. And secondly that your whole argument seems to be predicated on the idea that we currently have anything approaching good governance in our counties. Something I would dispute very strongly in many cases.
    Too true: in Leics we have had our council leader resign last year because of an expenses scandal:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-18502722

    But of course all parties have form on that, not least the UKIP MEPs.
  • Sir_GeoffSir_Geoff Posts: 41
    Financier said:

    History Test - Try IT!

    At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html

    Which is why the changes concern me. If the specified events up to 1700 are so important, why do the proposals insist they are taught at primary schools, few of whom will have the necessary expertise. Any who are academy can simply opt not to bother. As the remit of secondary schools is to cover after that date, the gaps are simply left unfilled.

    As for the Mail's point that they don't know these key facts, they are hardly difficult to prepare for. Your average History graduate going on to teacher training as a secondary specialist will have significant gaps in knowledge with regard to what they need to teach, at KS3 through to KS5. The important thing is they have the ability to fill these.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Jonathan said:

    Socrates said:

    That YouGov poll:

    Imagine that in your own constituency at the
    next election the Conservatives, Labour,
    Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
    all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
    How would you vote?

    Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%

    That is a really interesting question and result. And contains within it the way the Tories should be dealing with UKIP. "Can't win, Won't win"

    That Labour %age should trouble them. The assumption that the Labour vote is soft, might not be true.
    That message can be hard to do when every couple of months there's a new story about UKIP almost winning this by-election or that by-election, surging in the locals, getting record numbers in the Euros etc...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2013
    One problem with a Tory "UKIP can't win, won't win" strategy is that the Euros precede the GE. It's quite possible that UKIP could beat the Tories or even top the poll. It would be quite a good comeback to ant Tory accusation.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Steven Spielberg to create another political movie on the presidency of Barack Obama:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyU213nhrh0&feature=youtu.be
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Socrates said:

    Jonathan said:

    Socrates said:

    That YouGov poll:

    Imagine that in your own constituency at the
    next election the Conservatives, Labour,
    Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
    all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
    How would you vote?

    Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%

    That is a really interesting question and result. And contains within it the way the Tories should be dealing with UKIP. "Can't win, Won't win"

    That Labour %age should trouble them. The assumption that the Labour vote is soft, might not be true.
    That message can be hard to do when every couple of months there's a new story about UKIP almost winning this by-election or that by-election, surging in the locals, getting record numbers in the Euros etc...
    Indeed. And to extend your point, if in the 6 week 'short' campaign the Tories still have to devote serious resources to fighting UKIP they are in unchartered waters.

    Labour have been fighting campaigns on multiple flanks for years. For the Tories this is new.

    Ideally, the Tories need to bury UKIP before the campaign. But with the timing of the Euros, that's a tall order.



  • The jolly thing about Sunday Times Yougovs is that they ask so many questions that there's something to please everyone. Various posts below illustrate that, and I'll add to them by observing that the Osborne relaunch (No triple dip! Weighty warning to Salmond1 Hammer of the workshy!) has flopped. At the end of February his rating (measured by "Should he be replaced?") was -33. After all that effort it is now -29.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lhnabrjag7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260413.pdf

    I don't think that the relaunch was for the messenger, it was for the message. And the fact that DC/GO consistently out perform Ed/Ed on economic competence might suggest an endorsement.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Sir_Geoff said:

    Financier said:

    History Test - Try IT!

    At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html

    Which is why the changes concern me. If the specified events up to 1700 are so important, why do the proposals insist they are taught at primary schools, few of whom will have the necessary expertise. Any who are academy can simply opt not to bother. As the remit of secondary schools is to cover after that date, the gaps are simply left unfilled.

    As for the Mail's point that they don't know these key facts, they are hardly difficult to prepare for. Your average History graduate going on to teacher training as a secondary specialist will have significant gaps in knowledge with regard to what they need to teach, at KS3 through to KS5. The important thing is they have the ability to fill these.

    When you have a country with as much history as we do, it's going to be inevitable that not everything can be squeezed in during primary school. But as important as the previous stuff is, the real modern formation of our country has been done since the Glorious Revolution. I'd like that and everything after to be at secondary school.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Sir_Geoff said:

    Financier said:

    History Test - Try IT!

    At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html

    Which is why the changes concern me. If the specified events up to 1700 are so important, why do the proposals insist they are taught at primary schools, few of whom will have the necessary expertise. Any who are academy can simply opt not to bother. As the remit of secondary schools is to cover after that date, the gaps are simply left unfilled.

    As for the Mail's point that they don't know these key facts, they are hardly difficult to prepare for. Your average History graduate going on to teacher training as a secondary specialist will have significant gaps in knowledge with regard to what they need to teach, at KS3 through to KS5. The important thing is they have the ability to fill these.

    If you study history at university you study it in modules. It is not a surprise that someone who has focused on the last 200 years would not know much about what had gone before - especially the seemingly random stuff in many of those questions. The only one on there that I'd say it would be criminal for a history teacher/graduate not to know immediately is the Magna Carta one. I studied anglo-saxon history for three years at Uni and I could not tell you a thing about Hilda.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    Socrates said:

    Sir_Geoff said:

    Financier said:

    History Test - Try IT!

    At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html

    Which is why the changes concern me. If the specified events up to 1700 are so important, why do the proposals insist they are taught at primary schools, few of whom will have the necessary expertise. Any who are academy can simply opt not to bother. As the remit of secondary schools is to cover after that date, the gaps are simply left unfilled.

    As for the Mail's point that they don't know these key facts, they are hardly difficult to prepare for. Your average History graduate going on to teacher training as a secondary specialist will have significant gaps in knowledge with regard to what they need to teach, at KS3 through to KS5. The important thing is they have the ability to fill these.

    When you have a country with as much history as we do, it's going to be inevitable that not everything can be squeezed in during primary school. But as important as the previous stuff is, the real modern formation of our country has been done since the Glorious Revolution. I'd like that and everything after to be at secondary school.

    That is still a huge amount. And what is left out could get very political, as could the focus of what is left in. Enclosure and the industrial revolution could be hugely controversial, as could the focus there is on Ireland. And that's before you go beyond the British Isles. History looks set to become a real hot potato.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    YouGov - own supporters' rating:

    Net "well" (2010 vote)
    Cameron: +83 (+44)
    Miliband: +36 (+20)
    Clegg: +33 (-27)
    Farage: +86 (n/a)

    Meanwhile YouGov also have a poll the Scottish Separatists will want to dismiss:

    60% of Scots ‘unconvinced’ by Alex Salmond's case for independence

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/223096-60-of-scots-unconvinced-by-alex-salmonds-case-for-independence/

    Yawn yawn, your imbecilic hatred of Scotland spoils anything you post , get a life.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Do you think each of the following would make
    a better or worse Prime Minister than David
    Cameron?

    Ed Miliband
    Better: 27%
    Worse: 41%
    Neither: 20%
    DK: 12%

    I find it hard to imagine Ed Miliband walking into Downing Street as Prime Minister on 8th May 2015 on those sort of numbers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    tim said:

    "Cameron's election guru: 'Osborne is a liability - he's driving voters away'

    David Cameron's election guru believes that Tory chairman Grant Shapps and Chancellor George Osborne are ‘liabilities’ who will cost the party votes in this week’s crucial town hall polls, it was claimed last night.
    Tough-talking Lynton Crosby has had a series of clashes with fellow campaign chiefs Shapps and Osborne, according to insiders. They say that Australian-born Mr Crosby, recruited by Mr Cameron to revive flagging Tory ratings, regards Mr Shapps as ‘ineffective’.
    And he reportedly believes Mr Osborne’s abysmal personal popularity means he is driving voters away in large numbers.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315911/Camerons-election-guru-Osborne-liability--hes-driving-voters-away.html#ixzz2RkLZNXKK
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


    Toxic George is blaming Shapps, Crosby is blaming both of them.

    Oh to be a fly on the wall when Lynton's giving Boy George a verbal kick up the ass! :^O

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Socrates said:

    That YouGov poll:

    Imagine that in your own constituency at the
    next election the Conservatives, Labour,
    Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
    all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
    How would you vote?

    Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%

    That is a really interesting question and result. And contains within it the way the Tories should be dealing with UKIP. "Can't win, Won't win"

    That Labour %age should trouble them. The assumption that the Labour vote is soft, might not be true.
    Without knowing the churn we cannot say how solid the Labour vote is. The question is intended to unwind tactical voting. The only party unlikely to be benefiting from this in at least some places is UKIP.

    British politics is very stale and may be due an earthquake, though like the Maggie earthquake not like what it gets. It is likely that a UKIP earthquake will put Labour in power for a decade, to be followed by Who knows what.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    The 2015 GE is shaping up to be truly fascinating.The coalition partners are likely to be still sufffering from PCS (Poisoned Chalice Syndrome.The official opposition which should have double the lead polls are currently showing is best called LLS(Lack Lustre Labour)
    Thre are two parties benefiting now and likely to strengthen their position further.Fiirst theSNP.Scottish polls show the SNP in the lead and on current ratings that would deliver 35 seats for them.There is every reason to bleive that thier success will continue.The referendum in Scotland in Septermber 2014 may be lost but anything over 40% saying yes wil be hailed by Salmond as a triumph and will give him more momentum going into May.This would hurt Labour and the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
    On the flank UKIP should do well next week,but the real triumoh will be at the 2014 European elections where they are ililey to emerge as the clear winners.Thus will give them terrfic momentum going into the 2015 GE.The GE in terms of seat gains is uncharted territory with the galls ceiling effect of a relativelly evenly spread vote share making it difficult to break through the 30%+barrier.( but even that could be changing as the County elections may show)

    So it is quite possible that three minor parties - the Lib Dems likely reduced to 30seats,the SNP with 35 seatss and UKIP say another 30,could beween them command over 100 seats.That would leave a real nightmare of coalition forming for Labour likley to have the largest number of seats, or the Torie slikley to have the biggest share of votes.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Financier

    Could Ed and his Welfare party be any more out of touch with public opinion on benefits reform?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Another engaging Ashcroft piece, more subtle anti-UKIP material than the "gosh, their candidate for Lesser Snoddington once liked Mussolini" stuff::

    http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-2315917/Youre-Nigel-Top-Tory-donors-blistering-open-letter-UKIP-leader.html?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=03df316ef6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    Good morning. In the absence of hard dramatic news this Sunday, PBers have taken to dissecting the latest YouGov in minute detail. We are in a pre election hold-over waiting to know the key answer of the year in regard to future politics and UKIP's performance. Will they, won't they?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    rogerh said:

    The 2015 GE is shaping up to be truly fascinating.The coalition partners are likely to be still sufffering from PCS (Poisoned Chalice Syndrome.The official opposition which should have double the lead polls are currently showing is best called LLS(Lack Lustre Labour)
    Thre are two parties benefiting now and likely to strengthen their position further.Fiirst theSNP.Scottish polls show the SNP in the lead and on current ratings that would deliver 35 seats for them.There is every reason to bleive that thier success will continue.The referendum in Scotland in Septermber 2014 may be lost but anything over 40% saying yes wil be hailed by Salmond as a triumph and will give him more momentum going into May.This would hurt Labour and the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
    On the flank UKIP should do well next week,but the real triumoh will be at the 2014 European elections where they are ililey to emerge as the clear winners.Thus will give them terrfic momentum going into the 2015 GE.The GE in terms of seat gains is uncharted territory with the galls ceiling effect of a relativelly evenly spread vote share making it difficult to break through the 30%+barrier.( but even that could be changing as the County elections may show)

    So it is quite possible that three minor parties - the Lib Dems likely reduced to 30seats,the SNP with 35 seatss and UKIP say another 30,could beween them command over 100 seats.That would leave a real nightmare of coalition forming for Labour likley to have the largest number of seats, or the Torie slikley to have the biggest share of votes.


    Personally, I don't expect UKIP to win one seat in 2015...

    However, if we'd gone for AV we would right now be looking at a possibility of a Con/UKIP coalition in the next Parliament... Farage as Foreign Secretary negotiating our withdrawal from the EU? That would have given the mandarins at the Foreign Office a shake up.

    Alas, we're stuck with FPTP.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    tim said:

    I see the Tories have inevitably sent out the few non public schoolboys this morning

    Ken Clarke on UKIP - "it’s against foreigners, it’s against immigrants but it doesn’t have any positive policies" #murnaghan


    Ken Clarke on UKIP: "A party of waifs and strays."

    Transport Minister Patrick McLoughlin tells '#marr he is "not worried at all" about the threat of Ukip in next week's local elections.


    Interesting approach



    Everything they say strengthens UKIP! Maybe they should just shut up!!

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I post as the UKIP candidate both in a SCDC by-election, and in the Cambridgeshire Council election, both this Thursday.

    What attracted you to UKIP?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Another engaging Ashcroft piece, more subtle anti-UKIP material than the "gosh, their candidate for Lesser Snoddington once liked Mussolini" stuff::

    http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-2315917/Youre-Nigel-Top-Tory-donors-blistering-open-letter-UKIP-leader.html?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=03df316ef6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

    When a person like Ashcroft write a personal letter piece, things must look terribly desperate from the Tories point of view.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    @Tim,

    How does that compare with how UKIP'ers feel about Ed Miliband? Because thats the ultimate test of whether they will return in 2015.

    They may hate Cameron, but if they hate Miliband more many of them are likely to hold their nose and come back to keep Red Ed out, IMO.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    YouGov - own supporters' rating:

    Net "well" (2010 vote)
    Cameron: +83 (+44)
    Miliband: +36 (+20)
    Clegg: +33 (-27)
    Farage: +86 (n/a)

    Meanwhile YouGov also have a poll the Scottish Separatists will want to dismiss:

    60% of Scots ‘unconvinced’ by Alex Salmond's case for independence

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/223096-60-of-scots-unconvinced-by-alex-salmonds-case-for-independence/

    Yawn yawn, your imbecilic hatred of Scotland spoils anything you post , get a life.
    I don't think Carlotta shows a hatred of Scotland anymore than the 60% of Scots in the poll do. Unionists do not hate Scotland, but prefer it to be part of the UK. Dislike of the SNP does not mean dislike of Scotland or Scots, just a different view of how Scotland should be.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Everything they say strengthens UKIP! Maybe they should just shut up!!

    Now you see, if you'd been the Tories Master Strategist then they wouldn't have dug themselves into this hole.

    That someone so inept is charged with running the country's economy is a concern.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Everything they say strengthens UKIP! Maybe they should just shut up!!

    Now you see, if you'd been the Tories Master Strategist then they wouldn't have dug themselves into this hole.

    That someone so inept is charged with running the country's economy is a concern.

    Yet poll after poll shows the public has more faith in Osborne's economic management than Ed Balls.

    Says what a waste of space Balls is doesn't it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited April 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    tim said:

    @SouthamObserver

    Everything they say strengthens UKIP! Maybe they should just shut up!!

    Now you see, if you'd been the Tories Master Strategist then they wouldn't have dug themselves into this hole.

    That someone so inept is charged with running the country's economy is a concern.

    Yet poll after poll shows the public has more faith in Osborne's economic management than Ed Balls.

    Says what a waste of space Balls is doesn't it?

    Balls is harmless. Osborne has power.

    What the polls show most clearly is that voters would prefer neither of them. The voters are probably wiser than EdM and DaveC.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    rogerh said:

    The 2015 GE is shaping up to be truly fascinating.The coalition partners are likely to be still sufffering from PCS (Poisoned Chalice Syndrome.The official opposition which should have double the lead polls are currently showing is best called LLS(Lack Lustre Labour)
    Thre are two parties benefiting now and likely to strengthen their position further.Fiirst theSNP.Scottish polls show the SNP in the lead and on current ratings that would deliver 35 seats for them.There is every reason to bleive that thier success will continue.The referendum in Scotland in Septermber 2014 may be lost but anything over 40% saying yes wil be hailed by Salmond as a triumph and will give him more momentum going into May.This would hurt Labour and the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
    On the flank UKIP should do well next week,but the real triumoh will be at the 2014 European elections where they are ililey to emerge as the clear winners.Thus will give them terrfic momentum going into the 2015 GE.The GE in terms of seat gains is uncharted territory with the galls ceiling effect of a relativelly evenly spread vote share making it difficult to break through the 30%+barrier.( but even that could be changing as the County elections may show)

    So it is quite possible that three minor parties - the Lib Dems likely reduced to 30seats,the SNP with 35 seatss and UKIP say another 30,could beween them command over 100 seats.That would leave a real nightmare of coalition forming for Labour likley to have the largest number of seats, or the Torie slikley to have the biggest share of votes.


    Personally, I don't expect UKIP to win one seat in 2015...

    However, if we'd gone for AV we would right now be looking at a possibility of a Con/UKIP coalition in the next Parliament... Farage as Foreign Secretary negotiating our withdrawal from the EU? That would have given the mandarins at the Foreign Office a shake up.

    Alas, we're stuck with FPTP.

    I agree. It was a catestrophic failure of the AV campaign to turn it into a left wing issue. If they had got UKIP on board there would have been a much better debate.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @GIN1138

    'How does that compare with how UKIP'ers feel about Ed Miliband?'

    I'm sure Ed's support for the EU,ECHR,open door mass immigration and opposition to benefits reform goes down a treat with them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Plenty of actors have played presidents, but is Daniel Day Lewis the first actor to have been played by a president? As far as I can see, Ronald Reagan never took the part of an actor.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Is all this talk of local election "doom" coming from the Tories themselves? Could be pretty good expectation management - Anything less than a total meltdown, 1995 style, might not seem too bad on Friday morning...

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Are we supposed to be able to play with these charts and switch the percentages? If so I can't get that to work in IE.

    My guess compared with the chart given is that the tories will do a bit better in terms of share, Labour a bit worse, the Lib Dems quite a bit worse and UKIP rather better. It would have been fun to see what such changes might mean in terms of seats.

    The big story is likely to be the advance of UKIP. Given their number of candidates they may even beat the Lib Dems in terms of share of the vote although they will be nowhere near in terms of seats. The advance of UKIP is obviously a bigger problem for the tories than anyone else but it does also show Labour's failure to gather up the disillusioned and anti government vote.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    edited April 2013
    I can't help noticing the resemblance between Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the USA, and Jimmy Carter, the lead singer (and original member) of the Blind Boys of Alabam. I wonder if they are related in some way?
    http://oi42.tinypic.com/2md56cy.jpg
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Shooting in front of Quirinale while new Italian government is swearing in
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: Kubica has been in a Mercedes simulator:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/106788.html

    No details on the length of time, though. Even if he recovers enough physically to return to F1 he may've lost his sharpness (or not, cf Raikkonen).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @DavidL We have enough buttons, so I don't have access to a "semi-agree". Labour has clearly not picked up much of the disillusioned anti-government vote that it might reasonably be expected to get. But set against that, the disillusioned anti-government vote that it has picked up is looking reasonably solid at present.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'That someone so inept is charged with running the country's economy is a concern.'

    And yet voters think Balls is even worse.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2013

    GIN1138 said:

    rogerh said:

    The 2015 GE is shaping up to be truly fascinating.The coalition partners are likely to be still sufffering from PCS (Poisoned Chalice Syndrome.The official opposition which should have double the lead polls are currently showing is best called LLS(Lack Lustre Labour)
    Thre are two parties benefiting now and likely to strengthen their position further.Fiirst theSNP.Scottish polls show the SNP in the lead and on current ratings that would deliver 35 seats for them.There is every reason to bleive that thier success will continue.The referendum in Scotland in Septermber 2014 may be lost but anything over 40% saying yes wil be hailed by Salmond as a triumph and will give him more momentum going into May.This would hurt Labour and the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
    On the flank UKIP should do well next week,but the real triumoh will be at the 2014 European elections where they are ililey to emerge as the clear winners.Thus will give them terrfic momentum going into the 2015 GE.The GE in terms of seat gains is uncharted territory with the galls ceiling effect of a relativelly evenly spread vote share making it difficult to break through the 30%+barrier.( but even that could be changing as the County elections may show)

    So it is quite possible that three minor parties - the Lib Dems likely reduced to 30seats,the SNP with 35 seatss and UKIP say another 30,could beween them command over 100 seats.That would leave a real nightmare of coalition forming for Labour likley to have the largest number of seats, or the Torie slikley to have the biggest share of votes.


    Personally, I don't expect UKIP to win one seat in 2015...

    However, if we'd gone for AV we would right now be looking at a possibility of a Con/UKIP coalition in the next Parliament... Farage as Foreign Secretary negotiating our withdrawal from the EU? That would have given the mandarins at the Foreign Office a shake up.

    Alas, we're stuck with FPTP.

    I agree. It was a catestrophic failure of the AV campaign to turn it into a left wing issue. If they had got UKIP on board there would have been a much better debate.
    Indeed. The YES 2 AV campaign was a stinker. Who in their right mind thought it was a good idea to turn it into a Left Vs Right issue I don't know?

    Bizarrely they did have UKIP's support, but the likes of Clegg refused to even be seen with Farage.

    Yes 2 AV must go down as the most appallingly run national campaign of my lifetime, though Labour 83 and the Tories 2010 come close...

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    2 policemen injured...one lying down on the ground
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    tim said:

    I see the Tories have inevitably sent out the few non public schoolboys this morning

    Ken Clarke on UKIP - "it’s against foreigners, it’s against immigrants but it doesn’t have any positive policies" #murnaghan


    Ken Clarke on UKIP: "A party of waifs and strays."

    Sending out the well known Eurofanatic Ken Clarke to brief against UKIP is hardly the brightest move by CCHQ. Surely they would have been better choosing a known Eurosceptic from within the cabinet If anything an attack from Ken Clarke might make people more likely to vote UKIP than less.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    The market speaks:

    'Scottish independence gets boost from Hong Kong's money markets'

    http://tinyurl.com/cmqvw8c
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    BREAKING NEWS:Gunshots fired outside Italian prime minister's office, one person wounded, reports say

    BBC ticker.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited April 2013

    tim said:

    I see the Tories have inevitably sent out the few non public schoolboys this morning

    Ken Clarke on UKIP - "it’s against foreigners, it’s against immigrants but it doesn’t have any positive policies" #murnaghan


    Ken Clarke on UKIP: "A party of waifs and strays."

    Sending out the well known Eurofanatic Ken Clarke to brief against UKIP is hardly the brightest move by CCHQ. Surely they would have been better choosing a known Eurosceptic from within the cabinet If anything an attack from Ken Clarke might make people more likely to vote UKIP than less.
    To be honest I'm not sure CCHQ "sends" Ken anywhere. I get the feeling he does and says pretty much whatever the hell he likes and most of the time CCHQ are just standing in the background open mouthed. ;)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    The market speaks:

    'Scottish independence gets boost from Hong Kong's money markets'

    http://tinyurl.com/cmqvw8c

    Not sure I would want the support of people who clearly do not have the first idea about the way in which currency exchange works!!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    edited April 2013
    Well I got 8/12 for the history test which I thought was pretty poor until I read the rest of the article. I felt slightly better after that.

    While some of the questions are obscure (I completely agree with Southam about Hilda) many are what used to be called general knowledge, the sort of thing you incidentally picked up in Primary School while doing various projects. I remember studying Boadicia and her rebellion whilst doing a project on the Romans in Britain for example.

    I fear the results of the academics are rather indicative of the weaknesses of our education as a whole, too much specialisation, too much emphasis on skills rather than knowledge, too segmented. Some of us try to correct these flaws in our adult life by reading history and other fact based books which is fair enough but I would like to think that having a wide general knowledge is a key facet of being a good primary school teacher.

    As with everything in education this is a question of balance and there is a risk we go too far the other way as we did in the past (at one time Scots children were taught to list all the bays on the coast of Scotland for example) but some rebalancing is necessary if only to save the pub quiz teams of the future.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    dr_spyn said:

    BREAKING NEWS:Gunshots fired outside Italian prime minister's office, one person wounded, reports say

    BBC ticker.

    Does Italy actually have a Prime Minister? I thought they were still all sitting around trying to work out the result of the last election? ;)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. L, I missed the history test until your post. Went back but immediately found it rather hard. It's simply unreasonable to expect us to know about such modern things (although thanks to a [former?] member of this parish I did get one I otherwise would not).
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @GIN

    The government was swearing in while the gunshots took place.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Ken Clarke wandering around TV studios has the happy effect of reminding a significant segment of the population that there are tories that they actually like other than Boris. He may well have no interest whatsoever in being "on message" (surely a major part of the charm) but he is good value and generally right.

    Those who think that he will do worse than some UKIP lite cabinet member people have never heard of have, in my opinion, failed to understand the nature of the problem.
  • 'The tories need to bury UKIP'. There is absolutely no chance of that being directly achievable. Some UKIP supporters say that none of the parties has 'a proper leader'. Some say that none of them is 'competent'. 'Can you imagine Mrs Thatcher or Tony Blair being over-ruled by random courts all the time?'

    But for the tory high command to try to paint a picture intended to appeal to potential UKIP voters doesn't seem to be a sensible or a winning strategy. That will put off more centrist voters than they'll gain from UKIP.
    Winning without a charismatic leader will be the hard slog facing all three main parties at the next election. Governing solidly and well is dull (who, even on here on PB, knows that the only UKIP council in the country is Ramsey? Why is that not more widely known? Because it is well run. And that is not news.).
    Cameron using up political capital on peripheral issues simply looks clumsy.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited April 2013
    Who won the 100 years war, and who came second?

    When did History come to a full stop?

    Sellars and Yateman rule OK. http://www.amazon.co.uk/1066-All-That-W-C-Sellar/dp/0413772705

    Haven't read 1314 and All That - have any of the Scots Gnats read it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Mr. L, I missed the history test until your post. Went back but immediately found it rather hard. It's simply unreasonable to expect us to know about such modern things (although thanks to a [former?] member of this parish I did get one I otherwise would not).

    Modern and arguably a little parochial as well but it is our history.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    @GIN

    The government was swearing in while the gunshots took place.

    Thanks Andrea.

    How long since the last election has to taken to get a government in place?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    The whole anti-UKIP agenda seems to have an atmosphere of nasty establishment bullying about it.

    As the people who are considering voting UKIP are already disgruntled with what they see as nasty establishment bullying then its going to make them MORE likely to vote UKIP.

    This is especially so when its coming from the Cameroons.

    People who exude a "get on your bikes, cars are only for people who can afford chauffers, don't you know I'm a 12th baronet and this constituency has been my family's property since 1745, you're obliged to do as I tell you so pay up and get back to work prole" mentality are those that provoke revolutions during troubled times.

    And that's what we're now seeing - a political revolution on the political right.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    @GIN

    The government was swearing in while the gunshots took place.

    Thanks Andrea.

    How long since the last election has to taken to get a government in place?
    A bit more than 2 months.
    We can bet on if they took more time to form the government or to make it fall!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    teaching contact time...

    None - and if I find that any of my staff have been touching pupils.,,reminded me of a great joke one of Tom Sharpe's Wilt books when the Head of Languages implied that contact time was an oxymoron.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Talking of Ken Clarke, I was thinking the other day about that bizarre leadship bid he staged with John Redwood as his number two!

    Must go down as the strangest leadership ticket in British politics ever!

    Imagine if they'd pulled it off. Clarke and Redwood would have made Blair and Brown look like happy families.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    How does Ken Clarkes "UKIP hate foreigners" jibe sit alongside the fact Farage is married to and has two daughters by a German?

    Unless Farage hates his wife and kids
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