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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive ch

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,068
    edited April 2013
    Roger said:

    @Klee4
    "On average, I would say the Tories are self conscious about the fact they are out of touch, and try to overcompensate as a result."

    Overcompensate for being out of touch by making membership of the Bullingdon Club a first step to advancement in the Party? Is this post a spoof? Look at their latest recruit and feel embarrassed.

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/25/article-2314934-14056383000005DC-643_308x425.jpg

    Surely Eton would be the first step, and the Bullingdon later.

    Regardless, I mean overcompensate in displays of 'in touchness' rather than actually making themselves less out of touch. Meaning they appear more likely to engage in those embarrasing politician moments where they pretend to like band x of the day, or how they are totally down with the young people. They all do it, and it is always funny, but my sense is Tories worry more about such things - you may think with cause, but since I don't believe being out of touch is itself a problem, it is still mostly unnecessary.

    Someone belong to a university group known for being prats doesn't bother me in the slightest though. I imagine many people would say belonging to a young Labour/Conservatives group would be even more embarrasing!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Buy your own souvenir of Plodgate.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22117380

    Mitchell's bike up for sale.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @Tim

    I couldn't care less about Cameron's pledges, but I do care more about holding incompetent Ministers and other politicians to account. Burnham is not fit to hold office.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    @Klee4
    "On average, I would say the Tories are self conscious about the fact they are out of touch, and try to overcompensate as a result."

    Overcompensate for being out of touch by choosing half their staff from ex members of the Bullingdon Club? Is this post a spoof? Look at their latest recruit. He gives the word 'louche' a bad name

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/25/article-2314934-14056383000005DC-643_308x425.jpg

    Roger, Have you ever met the person you are slagging off? I think your comment says more about you and your personal prejudices than anything about the object of your rather nasty comment.
    Of course when it comes to out of touch, the hypocrisy of your comments contrasting to your personal lifestyle as expressed on here does not go unnoticed.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Has anyone an explanation or a link to an explanation as to why the Lib Dems will have a NEV vote significantly higher than UKIP? It is what most expect, but I would be interested in the analysis of others.

    Is the R&T forecast based on much older by election data than the reality of recent months?

    And if UKIP get 18%, rather than 11%, what would that do to their projected seat haul?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A gunman who shot and seriously injured two policemen outside the Italian PM's office in Rome was acting out of anger at politicians, prosecutors allege.

    A suspect named as 49-year-old Luigi Preiti was arrested at the scene.

    Rome prosecutor, Pierfilippo Laviani, said the gunman had hoped to target politicians but as he was unable to, he shot the police officers instead."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22330952
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Has anyone an explanation or a link to an explanation as to why the Lib Dems will have a NEV vote significantly higher than UKIP? It is what most expect, but I would be interested in the analysis of others.

    Is the R&T forecast based on much older by election data than the reality of recent months?

    And if UKIP get 18%, rather than 11%, what would that do to their projected seat haul?

    R and T and the BBC have no past experience to go on in taking UKIP actual votes in the local elections and converting them into a NEV . I would guess that they will assume that UKIP would not perform as well in Scotland , Wales , London and the Mets as they will do in the counties therefore an NEV of 11% would reflect an actual vote share next Thursday of around 14% . As R and T and the BBC keep their methodology for calculating NEV a secret , this is just conjecture .
    As I have posted before the actual Labour vote share next Thursday will be around 24/25% which will somehow be recalculated as a NEV of 35 - 38% without any meaningful explanation of the calculation(s) involved .

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Superb timing from IDS. Just in time for the locals.
    Iain Duncan Smith faces backlash after telling wealthy pensioners: 'hand back your benefits'

    IDS says it is an 'anomaly' that all pensioners receive universal benefits, no matter how well-off they are

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-faces-backlash-after-telling-wealthy-pensioners-hand-back-your-benefits-8591432.html
    The angry backlash from his colleagues and comical confusion it's sparked certainly makes it look like another cast iron case of incompetence.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb timing from IDS. Just in time for the locals.

    Iain Duncan Smith faces backlash after telling wealthy pensioners: 'hand back your benefits'

    IDS says it is an 'anomaly' that all pensioners receive universal benefits, no matter how well-off they are

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-faces-backlash-after-telling-wealthy-pensioners-hand-back-your-benefits-8591432.html
    The angry backlash from his colleagues and comical confusion it's sparked certainly makes it look like another cast iron case of incompetence.

    Make them taxable
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2013
    The UKIP counter attack:
    A furious Mr Farage responded by saying that Mr Clarke is a member of “of the bloated self-satisfied political machine”.
    “It is obvious that Mr Clarke holds millions of people in this country in utter contempt. Ukip are attracting supporters from all three main parties and significantly those who have either not voted for over 10 years or have never voted before in their lives.
    “Instead of slagging them off maybe he should try to wrap his head around the idea that Ukip are appealing to people due to the failure of the bloated self-satisfied political machine of which he is such a typical member.
    “He obviously doesn't care and isn't at all interested in attracting those millions to vote for the Conservatives, well so be it. The way things are going they won't be doing so any time soon. “
    Mr Farage added: “So stuck in his rut is he that he cannot understand that national independence, choice in education, lower simple taxes, direct democracy, serious border control, proper criminal justice and a host of other things make a positive program for national renewal.
    “To him, like so many in the ossified elite these things are negative, well Mr Clarke they are not so to the general public.”

    Ukip has accused the Tories of running a "morally reprehensible" smear campaign by trawling through would-be councillors' Twitter and Facebook posts.
    The party - which is investigating a handful of candidates over links to groups such as the BNP and alleged racist and homophobic comments - said it did not condone "unpalatable views".
    A Ukip spokesman said there is “evidence that Conservative Campaign Head Quarters has been scrutinising each and every one of our 1,732 candidates, monitoring every social media output over the last few years”.


    Patrick McLoughlin, the Transport Secretary, said Ukip candidates were being put under the same scrutiny as those from other parties.
    “Candidates are always put under scrutiny and I think it's right. Why should Ukip candidates get away without any scrutiny when other parties have scrutiny as far as their candidates are concerned?" he told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show.
    "I don't know anything about a smear campaign."
    Asked whether it was right to trawl through would-be councillors' social media accounts, he said: "I don't know whether that's happened, I'm just saying it happens to all parties and candidates are put under scrutiny."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10023734/Nigel-Farage-attacks-Ken-Clarke-for-calling-Ukip-voters-racists.html


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,068
    philiph said:



    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb timing from IDS. Just in time for the locals.

    Iain Duncan Smith faces backlash after telling wealthy pensioners: 'hand back your benefits'

    IDS says it is an 'anomaly' that all pensioners receive universal benefits, no matter how well-off they are

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-faces-backlash-after-telling-wealthy-pensioners-hand-back-your-benefits-8591432.html
    The angry backlash from his colleagues and comical confusion it's sparked certainly makes it look like another cast iron case of incompetence.
    Make them taxable
    What - government cases of incompetence? That would bring in a fair amount, no question.

    Actually on this one I don't think IDS said anything that should have gotten all his colleagues jumpy, it was cautiously enough phrased I think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    James - my attempts to find the data tables on the PanelBase website have come to nought - could you post a link please?

    @JamesKelly - sorry dear, been away for a while - missed your link...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb timing from IDS.

    And you thought the only stupid people in the Tories were Etonians?

    Time for a new (scratched) record...
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "@JamesKelly - sorry dear, been away for a while - missed your link..."

    What in God's name are you talking about, woman? More rambling for Blighty?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited April 2013

    James - my attempts to find the data tables on the PanelBase website have come to nought - could you post a link please?

    @JamesKelly - sorry dear, been away for a while - missed your link...

    Here is an example one from a recent Green survey

    http://www.panelbase.com/news/GreenPartyforpublication09042013.pdf

    There listed on the news section of their website.. http://www.panelbase.com/news/

    Edit: That example one does seem a bit sparse with only one question. The other pdfs on that link have much more info.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb timing from IDS.

    And you thought the only stupid people in the Tories were Etonians?
    Not at all. PB is all the proof you need that some of the most moronic and cretinous tories to be found are the tea party tories with the always hilarious stupidity from the inept public relations tory spinners

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Lord Ashcroft writes to Nigel Farage Esquire:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/04/a-memo-to-nigel-farage/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-memo-to-nigel-farage

    One of your favourite riffs is that you are prepared to raise things that the other parties brush under the carpet. But in your own way, you do the same. You know the world can’t be changed back to the way many of your supporters would like it to be. But rather than say so, you pretend that our problems could be solved – and we could increase defence spending, cut tax and balance the budget all at once – if only we did a handful of apparently simple things, like leave the EU and clamp down on immigration.

    (Making unkeepable promises in the expectation of never having to keep them is another qualification in the Heir to Clegg stakes). As it happens, your supporters know the world is more complicated than that; a vote for UKIP is a vote against the complication.

    It seems to be working for the time being. But to keep your momentum up, you must continue to cultivate disaffection, disillusionment, anxiety, distrust and grumpiness – and no longer for a cause, but as an end in itself. I can’t believe that’s what you went into politics to do. And as I say, it must be demoralising for someone of your talent. So why on earth do you do it?

    Maybe you could explain it to me over a pint.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    James - my attempts to find the data tables on the PanelBase website have come to nought - could you post a link please?

    @JamesKelly - sorry dear, been away for a while - missed your link...

    Here is an example one from a recent Green survey

    http://www.panelbase.com/news/GreenPartyforpublication09042013.pdf

    There listed on the news section of their website.. http://www.panelbase.com/news/

    Edit: That example one does seem a bit sparse with only one question. The other pdfs on that link have much more info.
    Yes - only publishing question 13a.....(which indicates the uncharitable conclusions the SS would rather we not observe...)

    YouGov usually publishes all the questions....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    "@JamesKelly - sorry dear, been away for a while - missed your link..."

    What in God's name are you talking about, woman? More rambling for Blighty?

    So that's a 'no' then...with added condescension...classy!

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,890
    @SquareRoot.

    "Roger, Have you ever met the person you are slagging off? I think your comment says more about you and your personal prejudices than anything about the object of your rather nasty comment."


    I actually stole the sentiment from Peter Oborne someone I normally find unreadable but his description of Cameron and his henchmen as "an incestuous collection of louche, affluent, power-hungry and amoral Londoners" shows how wrong I was

    PS. What was your most recent username before "Square Root"?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NEW THREAD!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Superb timing from IDS.

    And you thought the only stupid people in the Tories were Etonians?
    Not at all. PB is all the proof you need that some of the most moronic and cretinous tories to be found are the tea party tories with the always hilarious stupidity from the inept public relations tory spinners

    moronic
    cretinous
    tea party
    hilarious
    stupidity
    inept
    spinners

    Damn!

    Missed

    Osbrowne
    Fops

    Otherwise it would have been 'PORCINE BINGO!'

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    @CarlottaVance

    Calm down dear. You're sounding quite unhinged again.

    You need to save your eccentric hysteria for May the 3rd like the other inept tory PR spinners.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Dan Hodges tweets:

    And a simpleton retweets his stupidity as usual. Unspoofable. ;^)

This discussion has been closed.