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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive chart
To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.
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I guess we'll see the accuracy of these predictions in a few days. I personally think the story will be split three ways: the fall in the Conservative voteshare and seats; Labour's increase, but most of all, the rise of UKIP.
But trying to predict the media narrative is difficult, as Tim knows. ;-)
Note that on Chrome the top chart has an unnecessary vertical scrollbar.
(From a quick glance and play the charts appears to be pure HTML5 and SVG, with an image fallback for older browsers. It's a great display of the useful capabilities of the modern browsers.)
(Edit: scrollbar now fixed)
The graphs are impressive from a technical point of view; shame about the scrollbar but snazzy nevertheless.
It has been suggested that Britain should
TEMPORARILY leave the convention on human
rights so it could deport Abu Qatada.
Would you support or oppose Britain
temporarily leaving the convention on human
rights to deport Abu Qatada?
Support: 52%
Oppose: 30%
DK: 18%
only the LDs have a majority to support Oppose
In recent weeks the government have started to
introduce a number of different changes to the
welfare and benefit system, including
introducing a cap on the total benefits a
household can receive, limiting the annual rise
in benefits to below the rate of inflation,
reducing council tax benefit and reducing
housing benefit for social housing tenants with
what the government see as spare rooms (often
referred to as the "bedroom tax").
On balance do you support or oppose these
changes to the benefit system?
Support: 56%
Oppose: 31%
DK: 12%
only LAB support Oppose
Also starting in some areas this month are
trials of a new system where benefits including
jobseekers allowance, income support, working
tax credits, child tax credits and housing
benefit are all being replaced by a new single
benefit called the Universal Credit
.
In principle, do you think is it a good or bad
idea to combine all these benefits into one
single benefit?
Good: 50%
Bad: 27%
DK: 22%
Only LAB think tis a bad idea
And in principle, do you think is it right or
wrong to stop the benefits of unemployed
people who do not actively look for work?
Right: 77%
Wrong: 12%
DK: 11%
In 2004 doctors contracts for GPs changed so
that GPs no longer had the responsibility to
provide out-of-hours services, and could
instead opt-out and allow out-of-hours services
for their surgery to be provided by external
companies, contracted to the NHS.
Do you think it is right or wrong to allow GPs to
opt-out of providing out-of-hours services?
Right: 23%
Wrong: 63%
DK: 13%
Do you think each of the following would make
a better or worse Prime Minister than David
Cameron?
Ed Miliband
Better: 27%
Worse: 41%
Neither: 20%
DK: 12%
Nick Clegg:
Better: 11%
Worse: 52%
Neither: 27%
DK:10%
Nigel Farage:
Better: 11%
Worse: 40%
Neither:19%
DK: 30%
Thinking about the government's economic
policies, which of the following best reflects
your view?
The government should stick to its current strategy
of reducing the deficit, even if this means growth
remains slow. 33%(+1)
The government should change its strategy to
concentrate on growth, even if this means the
deficit stays longer or gets worse 38%(-3)
Neither: 8%(-1)
Not Sure: 21%(+3)
How do you think the financial situation of your
household will change over the next 12
months?
Better: 11%(0)
Same: 38% (+4)
Worse: 45%(-5)
DK: 5%(0)
Ed Miliband faced a growing revolt last night over his secret meeting with Respect MP George Galloway after it emerged that Mr Miliband had congratulated him on the way he beat Labour in a by-election.
The controversy over Mr Miliband’s talks with Mr Galloway – who was thrown out of the party in 2003 for his attacks on Tony Blair over the Iraq War – intensified after full details of the meeting in the Labour leader’s office were revealed for the first time.
Well-placed sources have told The Mail on Sunday that:
Mr Miliband said he wanted further meetings – but in a secret location so Labour MPs did not find out about it.
The two discussed Mr Galloway’s fierce criticism of US foreign policy and opposition to British troops in Afghanistan.
They had a ‘warm’ chat and talked about Mr Galloway’s friendship with Mr Miliband’s late father, Marxist academic Ralph Miliband.
The Labour leader said he admired Mr Galloway’s campaigning skills and his ability to woo ethnic minority voters........
A Labour MP said last night: ‘Ed Miliband should spend less time listening to people like Galloway who are despised by most Labour activists and more time listening to his own MPs.’
The new account of the meeting in Mr Miliband’s Commons office makes a mockery of claims by the leader’s aides that the two men met briefly to discuss boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315925/
This is a big issue where I live. I attended a parish council meeting last week and usually about 2 people turn up. This time there was about 50 and it got very heated.
There are a lot of disaffected Conservatives; it's a question of whether they vote Green or UKIP.
At the bottom of this article on university course hours, there is a very simple history test based on the new curriculum, which apparently many teachers would fail. Answers are provided, so no cheating!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315920/Scandal-university-students-100-hours-teaching-year.html
Also I struggled to keep down my evening meal after reading John Rentool in the Independent.
Does he not realise that "The Master" is a baddie in Dr Who?
The 2004 GP contract opting out of out of hours cover was inevitable. The increase in out of hours calls particularly for trivial things, the increase in part time GPs and feminisation of the workforce made the old system impossible to continue, and there can be no return. The BMA warned the DoH that they could not provide the service as cheaply, but the arrogant civil servants did not believe them.
With the new CCGs responsibility is back with GPs but on a collective basis.
Interesting comment from a family member who was a senior NHS administrator and is now a "management consultant" to the NHS. Many GP's, espeically in smaller practices, feel themselves more isolated from the decision making process with CCG's than they did with PCTs.
I needed to call the out of hours service a few years ago and I was happier that my own GP was not being called out as I like him and would have been less likely to seek help if I thought I was inconveniencing him and disturbing his weekend.
It worked fine for me being given a health centre to attend and being treated by a dedicated out-of-hours doctor.
http://redmolucca.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/ed-miliband-and-me/
http://m.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/31/serco-gp-service-cornwall
It is worth noting that Serco got the contract in 2006 under the last Labour govt. This privatisation and target driven culture is why I do not trust Labour on the NHS, and why I left the Labour party.
Net "well" (2010 vote)
Cameron: +83 (+44)
Miliband: +36 (+20)
Clegg: +33 (-27)
Farage: +86 (n/a)
Meanwhile YouGov also have a poll the Scottish Separatists will want to dismiss:
60% of Scots ‘unconvinced’ by Alex Salmond's case for independence
http://news.stv.tv/politics/223096-60-of-scots-unconvinced-by-alex-salmonds-case-for-independence/
Interesting couple of questions. One highlighted in the header, how would people vote if there was a mystical 4-way marginal, which shows if Ukip stand a chance of winning they siphon off another chunk of voters from the Conservatives (and to a lesser extend from the Lib Dems and Labour). But of course the reverse is true and Ukip will have no chance in any seats, and many of those voters will go back to the blues.
The other: would Ed Miliband made a better or worse PM than David Cameron.
All voters:
Better 27%
Worse 41%
Neither 20%
Labour voters:
Better 70%
Worse 6%
Neither 18%
Lab10 voters:
Better 58%
Worse 9%
Neither 25%
LD10 voters:
Better 34%
Worse 34%
Neither 23%
Hardly setting the world alight with his radical ideas for change.
Mr. Jonathan, considering the loyalty (either cast iron or sheep-like) of Labour to its leadership and the willingness of the blues to either criticise their leaders or commit regicide every second Tuesday that comment is not necessarily one I agree with entirely.
So instead he let it come out in a negative way in the Mail on Sunday?
The NHS is (and probably always has been) a postcode lottery when it comes to quality of service.
Labour supporters love nothing more than grumbling about the leadership, but when push comes to shove are loyal.
Tory supporters loudly proclaim loyalty right up to (and sometimes including) the moment they wield the knife.
This site's editorial attitude, the Smithson view, seems to be exactly right on two points: hardly anybody is interested in Europe. And secondly, of those who are willing to vote for, or even to consider voting for, UKIP very few are doing so because of BOO.
The only other candidate showing any interest is the outstanding LD current councillor, Susan van de Ven.
I'm getting a warm reception--'I'm pleased to see you standing, and walking out-and-about'. Will you consider voting UKIP on Thursday? 'No, because Susie....' Will you vote UKIP in the Euro-elections next year: Susie's not standing? 'Possibly. I'll definitely vote.' Hardly a ringing endorsement for getting out of the EU, especially said while talking to the UKIP candidate wearing his party's rosette.
Even the Lib Dems can do proper leadership coups.
So in the 2009 elections estimated vote shares fom the BBC with variance against ICM April 2009 poll were Con 38%(-2),Lab 23%(-7),Lib 28(+9).
The most relevant measure of changes in national opinion is to compare the posls in April 2013 with the 2009 using the gold standard ICM.This shows changes of CON-9,Lab +9,Lib-4 UKIP +8.This in turn gives swings of Con to Lab 9%,Con to Lib 2.5%,Lib to Lab 6.5%,Con to UKIP 8.5%.
Translating this into seat change sdoes not give massive shifts because firstly there are not that many Con Lab marginals but quite a lot on these swings of Con /UKIPmarginals.Predicting seat shifts from LD is tricky -gain thre are not taat many LD/l marginals particularly in the Counties.The small Con/LD swing is within the margin of error and so the psssible gains from cons could easily blow way leaving the Lib dem losses to labour which could be claser to 50.The CON/ UKIP swing is in my view likely to be nearer to 10% hence the UKIP gain sof near 100 I am expecting.
So overall compared to Thrasher and Rawklings model brackets) my figures are similar for Con losses-314(-310,less for Labour gains +218(350) less for Lib Dem losses -3 (-130) though could be up to -50) and more gains for UKIP +98(+40)
There are some practices in Leicester run by strings of Locums with no continuity of care, and some showing the beginnings of national chains of branded practices:
http://www.thepracticeplc.com
This is how the future NHS looks, like it or not.
Can anyone imagine the BBC doing the same thing to the Lib Dems?
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lhnabrjag7/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-260413.pdf
I think in his case it very much comes down to giving the other parties a bloodied nose rather than any definitive policy.
However our UKIP candidate in a nearby constituency comes across rather poorly in the literature.
Imagine that in your own constituency at the
next election the Conservatives, Labour,
Liberal Democrats and UK Independence party
all had a realistic chance of winning the seat.
How would you vote?
Con 26%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 18%, Nats 3%
That Labour %age should trouble them. The assumption that the Labour vote is soft, might not be true.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-18502722
But of course all parties have form on that, not least the UKIP MEPs.
As for the Mail's point that they don't know these key facts, they are hardly difficult to prepare for. Your average History graduate going on to teacher training as a secondary specialist will have significant gaps in knowledge with regard to what they need to teach, at KS3 through to KS5. The important thing is they have the ability to fill these.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyU213nhrh0&feature=youtu.be
Labour have been fighting campaigns on multiple flanks for years. For the Tories this is new.
Ideally, the Tories need to bury UKIP before the campaign. But with the timing of the Euros, that's a tall order.
British politics is very stale and may be due an earthquake, though like the Maggie earthquake not like what it gets. It is likely that a UKIP earthquake will put Labour in power for a decade, to be followed by Who knows what.
Thre are two parties benefiting now and likely to strengthen their position further.Fiirst theSNP.Scottish polls show the SNP in the lead and on current ratings that would deliver 35 seats for them.There is every reason to bleive that thier success will continue.The referendum in Scotland in Septermber 2014 may be lost but anything over 40% saying yes wil be hailed by Salmond as a triumph and will give him more momentum going into May.This would hurt Labour and the Lib Dems in terms of seat losses.
On the flank UKIP should do well next week,but the real triumoh will be at the 2014 European elections where they are ililey to emerge as the clear winners.Thus will give them terrfic momentum going into the 2015 GE.The GE in terms of seat gains is uncharted territory with the galls ceiling effect of a relativelly evenly spread vote share making it difficult to break through the 30%+barrier.( but even that could be changing as the County elections may show)
So it is quite possible that three minor parties - the Lib Dems likely reduced to 30seats,the SNP with 35 seatss and UKIP say another 30,could beween them command over 100 seats.That would leave a real nightmare of coalition forming for Labour likley to have the largest number of seats, or the Torie slikley to have the biggest share of votes.
Could Ed and his Welfare party be any more out of touch with public opinion on benefits reform?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/debate/article-2315917/Youre-Nigel-Top-Tory-donors-blistering-open-letter-UKIP-leader.html?utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=03df316ef6-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email
Personally, I don't expect UKIP to win one seat in 2015...
However, if we'd gone for AV we would right now be looking at a possibility of a Con/UKIP coalition in the next Parliament... Farage as Foreign Secretary negotiating our withdrawal from the EU? That would have given the mandarins at the Foreign Office a shake up.
Alas, we're stuck with FPTP.
How does that compare with how UKIP'ers feel about Ed Miliband? Because thats the ultimate test of whether they will return in 2015.
They may hate Cameron, but if they hate Miliband more many of them are likely to hold their nose and come back to keep Red Ed out, IMO.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/04/27/article-2315911-19843AD7000005DC-612_634x392.jpg
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2315911/Camerons-election-guru-Osborne-liability--hes-driving-voters-away.html#ixzz2RkLZNXKK
Says what a waste of space Balls is doesn't it?
What the polls show most clearly is that voters would prefer neither of them. The voters are probably wiser than EdM and DaveC.
'How does that compare with how UKIP'ers feel about Ed Miliband?'
I'm sure Ed's support for the EU,ECHR,open door mass immigration and opposition to benefits reform goes down a treat with them.
My guess compared with the chart given is that the tories will do a bit better in terms of share, Labour a bit worse, the Lib Dems quite a bit worse and UKIP rather better. It would have been fun to see what such changes might mean in terms of seats.
The big story is likely to be the advance of UKIP. Given their number of candidates they may even beat the Lib Dems in terms of share of the vote although they will be nowhere near in terms of seats. The advance of UKIP is obviously a bigger problem for the tories than anyone else but it does also show Labour's failure to gather up the disillusioned and anti government vote.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/2md56cy.jpg
http://www.espn.co.uk/mercedes/motorsport/story/106788.html
No details on the length of time, though. Even if he recovers enough physically to return to F1 he may've lost his sharpness (or not, cf Raikkonen).
'That someone so inept is charged with running the country's economy is a concern.'
And yet voters think Balls is even worse.
Bizarrely they did have UKIP's support, but the likes of Clegg refused to even be seen with Farage.
Yes 2 AV must go down as the most appallingly run national campaign of my lifetime, though Labour 83 and the Tories 2010 come close...
'Scottish independence gets boost from Hong Kong's money markets'
http://tinyurl.com/cmqvw8c
BBC ticker.
While some of the questions are obscure (I completely agree with Southam about Hilda) many are what used to be called general knowledge, the sort of thing you incidentally picked up in Primary School while doing various projects. I remember studying Boadicia and her rebellion whilst doing a project on the Romans in Britain for example.
I fear the results of the academics are rather indicative of the weaknesses of our education as a whole, too much specialisation, too much emphasis on skills rather than knowledge, too segmented. Some of us try to correct these flaws in our adult life by reading history and other fact based books which is fair enough but I would like to think that having a wide general knowledge is a key facet of being a good primary school teacher.
As with everything in education this is a question of balance and there is a risk we go too far the other way as we did in the past (at one time Scots children were taught to list all the bays on the coast of Scotland for example) but some rebalancing is necessary if only to save the pub quiz teams of the future.
The government was swearing in while the gunshots took place.
Those who think that he will do worse than some UKIP lite cabinet member people have never heard of have, in my opinion, failed to understand the nature of the problem.
But for the tory high command to try to paint a picture intended to appeal to potential UKIP voters doesn't seem to be a sensible or a winning strategy. That will put off more centrist voters than they'll gain from UKIP.
Winning without a charismatic leader will be the hard slog facing all three main parties at the next election. Governing solidly and well is dull (who, even on here on PB, knows that the only UKIP council in the country is Ramsey? Why is that not more widely known? Because it is well run. And that is not news.).
Cameron using up political capital on peripheral issues simply looks clumsy.
When did History come to a full stop?
Sellars and Yateman rule OK. http://www.amazon.co.uk/1066-All-That-W-C-Sellar/dp/0413772705
Haven't read 1314 and All That - have any of the Scots Gnats read it?
How long since the last election has to taken to get a government in place?
As the people who are considering voting UKIP are already disgruntled with what they see as nasty establishment bullying then its going to make them MORE likely to vote UKIP.
This is especially so when its coming from the Cameroons.
People who exude a "get on your bikes, cars are only for people who can afford chauffers, don't you know I'm a 12th baronet and this constituency has been my family's property since 1745, you're obliged to do as I tell you so pay up and get back to work prole" mentality are those that provoke revolutions during troubled times.
And that's what we're now seeing - a political revolution on the political right.
We can bet on if they took more time to form the government or to make it fall!
None - and if I find that any of my staff have been touching pupils.,,reminded me of a great joke one of Tom Sharpe's Wilt books when the Head of Languages implied that contact time was an oxymoron.
Must go down as the strangest leadership ticket in British politics ever!
Imagine if they'd pulled it off. Clarke and Redwood would have made Blair and Brown look like happy families.
Unless Farage hates his wife and kids