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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach diff

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Foxy said:

    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
    I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
    I had a cousin who was a senior officer with the Australians in Vietnam. Regular army and decorated for combat against Japan so no shrinking violet, but he too came back from Vietnam bitterly disillusioned, particularly with the cavalier attitude by the Americans to civilian casualties.
    Which is why Ken Burns' documentary is so stunning.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    I suspect that Alex Ferguson has an integrity which Boris lacks. That lack will do for Boris eventually.

    Boris has got a deal because the combination of his date pledge and the Benn Act forced him into it and because he abandoned all the things he previously said he would do. Any fool can get a deal in such circumstances.

    He is not persuading people of the merits of the deal. He is persuading people of the merits of doing a deal, any deal, now, just to get the bloody thing over and done with. Decisions made when exhausted and in a rush are rarely good ones and risk not having the sort of long-term commitment and support they need - as this one will certainly need.
    What makes you suspect that Sir Alex has the integrity Boris lacks?

    I don't pretend to know anything much about football or Alex Ferguson. But the fact that he was able to lead a team so effectively for so long speaks to his leadership qualities. And to be a really good leader, IMO, you need a level of integrity because being a good leader requires others to trust you.

    I may be wrong about Alex F of course.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    When you argue for annexing part of an independent Scotland you don't need to bother with insulting one person when you're already insulting millions of them.
    That isn't true at all. Just because he is ignorant about the borders population does not mean it is equivalent to personal attacks. HYUFD has crazy views, but he suffers far more attacks from others and never gives them out, even under provocation.
    Diehard remainer is extremist and insulting and he means it in exactly that way.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    If we have an election soon will Johnson make a repeat do-or-die pledge to exit the transition by a specific date?

    It looks like that is the next battleground the ERG might be moving onto.

    I wonder what Boris's deal has to say about the transition exit date. Whether it is extendible, for example, and under what conditions. It's only just over a year till the end of 2020!
    I believe it's exactly the same as May's. The transition is extendable once, for one or two years, by mutual agreement at the end of June 2020.

    Assuming we exit with the Johnson Deal it looks likely to be the next big argument (rather than debating what choices we want to make with the trade negotiations).
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    I suspect that Alex Ferguson has an integrity which Boris lacks. That lack will do for Boris eventually.

    Boris has got a deal because the combination of his date pledge and the Benn Act forced him into it and because he abandoned all the things he previously said he would do. Any fool can get a deal in such circumstances.

    He is not persuading people of the merits of the deal. He is persuading people of the merits of doing a deal, any deal, now, just to get the bloody thing over and done with. Decisions made when exhausted and in a rush are rarely good ones and risk not having the sort of long-term commitment and support they need - as this one will certainly need.
    What makes you suspect that Sir Alex has the integrity Boris lacks?

    I don't pretend to know anything much about football or Alex Ferguson. But the fact that he was able to lead a team so effectively for so long speaks to his leadership qualities. And to be a really good leader, IMO, you need a level of integrity because being a good leader requires others to trust you.

    I may be wrong about Alex F of course.
    Ferguson ensured his team trusted him by immediately selling any player that went against him. Beckham, Ronaldo, Stam...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    stodge said:

    I'm very downbeat about the prospects this morning - the future looks like a Conservative boot stamping on a human face forever (though that's a shade Orwellian).

    Let's hope!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Gabs2 said:

    FF43 said:


    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Feels like this is the deal May wanted, but her 2017 election result made impossible.

    I don't think so. May believes in the Union. Johnson doesn't. More precisely Johnson believes in whatever advantages him. Every other principle is dispensable. It's a very liberating philosophy.
    I'm calling out your complete bollocks that Boris doesn't believe in the Union.
    Fair enough I'm sure Johnson does believe in the Union at some level. He keeps talking about Britain, so we have to assume it's a thing for him. But it isn't a priority for him as it is for May, and as this header points out. He won't take action to support the Union if other things dictate otherwise.

    What are Johnson's priorities? Frankly on the evidence: himself.
    Like so many English Brexiteers (as evidenced on here), BJ hasn't made the necessary differentiation between England and the UK. This it almost goes without saying means he has no understanding of Scotland, but barely any about Scottish Unionism.
    Yes. You and I obviously come from different places on this. But even I accept it's over for the Union, if English aren't prepared to make it work.
    If you look at how young Scots voted in IndyRef, it is over in the long run anyway. Unless the SNP mess it up by rerunning the vote too soon.
    Young people voted 50/50 in the independence referendum, just like everyone else, except the over 65s and those born outside Scotland. I doubt Brexit will encourage people towards the Union.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    Phil said:

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)

    I had the same thought watching the series last Christmas.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I’d be very dubious of Campbell changing his mind . He seemed resolute last night on Newsnight .
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_P said:

    So they've finally cottoned on to the fact that the can has - yet again - been kicked.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825

    "Choice is not between Brexit or no Brexit, choice is between Brexit with a deal or without a deal" - French advisor to Macron on Sky now - EU leaders do not want our membership dragging on.

    They've never talked tough before of course.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gabs2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    I suspect that Alex Ferguson has an integrity which Boris lacks. That lack will do for Boris eventually.

    Boris has got a deal because the combination of his date pledge and the Benn Act forced him into it and because he abandoned all the things he previously said he would do. Any fool can get a deal in such circumstances.

    He is not persuading people of the merits of the deal. He is persuading people of the merits of doing a deal, any deal, now, just to get the bloody thing over and done with. Decisions made when exhausted and in a rush are rarely good ones and risk not having the sort of long-term commitment and support they need - as this one will certainly need.
    What makes you suspect that Sir Alex has the integrity Boris lacks?

    I don't pretend to know anything much about football or Alex Ferguson. But the fact that he was able to lead a team so effectively for so long speaks to his leadership qualities. And to be a really good leader, IMO, you need a level of integrity because being a good leader requires others to trust you.

    I may be wrong about Alex F of course.
    Ferguson ensured his team trusted him by immediately selling any player that went against him. Beckham, Ronaldo, Stam...
    Indulged in just the odd bit of nepotism!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.
    Trimble's a member of the Conservative party these days and presumably just opting whichever way the DUP don't.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No way . Trimble was part of the UUP who agreed to the GFA which the DUP objected to.

    This is desperate spin by the Spectator , it might provide cover for the ERG but won’t wash with the DUP.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    The mistake people make is judging a persons ability to do anything on their failure to be good at one thing. Can only lead to a dogma, a code if you like.
    I agree with that if you mean that there is a tendency to overvalue academic credentials, say, and ignore the fact that some apparently highly intelligent people are utterly lacking in common-sense, integrity or other qualities.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    nico67 said:

    Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .

    Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .
    Jezza always said it was down to the members, this works both ways though, he isn't going to ride to their rescue either. If they want to vote for Johnson's deal then they accept the potential reaction to it.
    I'm not convinced this will happen. For all the talk of deselections, the only MP to actually be deselected is Margaret Hodge (and that's nothing to do with Brexit). Kate Hoey went on a boat with Nigel Farage and still comfortably got re-elected in 2017 in Vauxhall.

    John Mann has also had no problems and has said that his Brexit stance helped retain the local council.

    For all Momentum like to brag about their power, it mainly seems to be concentrated in London, Liverpool and Manchester which were all strongly remain.
    With all due respect you haven't really been paying attention then, both those MPs have effectively stood down, Kate Hoey would have been deselected if she didn't stand down, she lost a confidence vote without a single vote in her favour, John Mann was very likely to be as well.

    TBH it was mainly the RW papers spreading fear regarding Momentum deselecting everyone, the problem with being a brexit supporter is you annoy the pro EU anti Corbyn lot as well.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,390
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1185156145683599360

    Jezza has sat on the fence all through this, so why stop now.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    When you argue for annexing part of an independent Scotland you don't need to bother with insulting one person when you're already insulting millions of them.
    That isn't true at all. Just because he is ignorant about the borders population does not mean it is equivalent to personal attacks. HYUFD has crazy views, but he suffers far more attacks from others and never gives them out, even under provocation.
    The point I am trying to make is that some views are more offensive than personal insults. Although I agree it is best to avoid the latter, as indeed I hope I do.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others
    Being nominally polite whilst spreading misinformation and lies is not a virtue, it is a camouflage mechanism.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?
    He is well respected in NI is the point (not by the DUP but by unionists generally)
  • I haven’t ever sat in Parliament so may be completely wrong, but one would think that the Lavery threats would mean Boris either gets all Labour rebels, or none. You wouldn’t want to be alone or a small group of splitters. If he gets all, he’s home and dry.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    That may be so. But the writer rather overlooks the fact that the DUP and the Ulster Unionists have hated each other quite as bitterly as they have hated Irish Nationalists.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.

    Does don't know = don't care?

    I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    However recent posts have been absolutely bonkers, he seemed to just change completely a month or two ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?

    Not among the DUP! :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Foxy said:

    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
    I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
    I had a cousin who was a senior officer with the Australians in Vietnam. Regular army and decorated for combat against Japan so no shrinking violet, but he too came back from Vietnam bitterly disillusioned, particularly with the cavalier attitude by the Americans to civilian casualties.
    Nick Turse's book "Kill anything that moves" presents the starkest example of that, detailing considerable evidence that the large scale indiscriminate killing of civilians was quite deliberate policy in some areas:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23427726
  • Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/markaustintv/status/1185084314133897217

    Perhaps, when the white coated professionals finally bungle him out of the oval office, Trump will be a total laughing stock.

    The worst fate imaginable for someone with his issues.

    His other brilliant jibe was "I won my spurs on the battlefield, not the doctor's office"

    I don’t really understand how the US draft dodgers get away with it, in public opinion, with the culture here about veterans, service and duty, whereas for example Kerry had so much of what he did or didn’t do while serving used against him.
    It's a weird one. I think it's because most people didn't agree with the draft, especially for Vietnam? But it is a paradox...
    I think the right hated Kerry for “stabbing America in the back” by testifying to Congress about the actions of US soldiers in Vietnam. One of the Burns/Novick documentary episodes goes into this period in some detail. The whole “swift-boat“ stuff was a dog-whistle to remind that population of Kerry’s past actions more than anything else I suspect.

    (Yes, none of this is rational, but the Vietnam War wasn’t rational. Watching that series made it pretty clear that if you thought the U.K. was suffering on all sides from Brexit-derangement syndrome then that has /nothing/ on what the Vietnam War did to the U.S. polity which was on a whole other level of madness.)
    I had a cousin who was a senior officer with the Australians in Vietnam. Regular army and decorated for combat against Japan so no shrinking violet, but he too came back from Vietnam bitterly disillusioned, particularly with the cavalier attitude by the Americans to civilian casualties.
    Which is why Ken Burns' documentary is so stunning.
    It is indeed an astonishing piece. Parts of the current "Spotlight on the Troubles: a secret history" are the closest that I have seen from the UK.

    I don't know if you caught this, but also very good.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09cfyj9
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:

    As in Mrs May did not understand politics.
    As I said yesterday the power of personality and personal charisma is MASSIVE in politics and in life. How you carry yourself and engage with people will always outweigh everything else. That's why so many great business-people or sports coaches aren't necessarily the smartest in the room but they are capable of moving mountains. There's no doubt Boris is an engaging character.
    My willingness to be impressed by people like Boris has been permanently ruined as a result of my work. I've met lots of people like Boris - usually in interviews trying to explain their latest fuck-up. I have little patience with and much contempt for such people because I have seen close up the very real harm they do.

    The other evening I watched the Netflix film about the Fyre Festival (well worth watching if you haven't seen it) and the similarities between Boris and Billy McFarland were striking.
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    The mistake people make is judging a persons ability to do anything on their failure to be good at one thing. Can only lead to a dogma, a code if you like.
    I agree with that if you mean that there is a tendency to overvalue academic credentials, say, and ignore the fact that some apparently highly intelligent people are utterly lacking in common-sense, integrity or other qualities.
    I have a friend who is very selfish, treats people thoughtlessly, and whom I wouldn't let date any relative or friend of mine, such is his lack of loyalty/extreme insecurity when it comes to relationships. Yet he is a fantastic businessman and I would seek his advice on the property market despite all of those poor character traits, and lend him money if he ever asked. Why should one influence the other?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    malcolmg said:

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    However recent posts have been absolutely bonkers, he seemed to just change completely a month or two ago.
    I am not denying that. But he is always polite in his bonkersness.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?
    He is well respected in NI is the point (not by the DUP but by unionists generally)
    That doesn't (necessarily) get the PM any votes in the Commons tomorrow.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.

    Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.

    In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.

    And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.

    Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.
    Well, Malc, the proof will be in the pudding, won't it. I expect a period of silence from you after the next GE similar in duration to that which occurred after June 2017 when Salmond, Robertson et al bit the dust.
    You have a surprising knowledge of PB history for such a recent visitor, well done for observing a period of silence up to August of this year. Good that PB has a new voice that alternates between sockpuppeting for BJ Brexit and SNPbaaad, we just don't get enough of that.
    Have to say I don't ever remember being silent either.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens. Betfair marginally favouring yes.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Cyclefree said:

    That may be so. But the writer rather overlooks the fact that the DUP and the Ulster Unionists have hated each other quite as bitterly as they have hated Irish Nationalists.
    It's a tongue in cheek piece, foster and Donaldson quit the UUP under Trimble
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Cyclefree said:

    That may be so. But the writer rather overlooks the fact that the DUP and the Ulster Unionists have hated each other quite as bitterly as they have hated Irish Nationalists.
    But osing seats to the UUP would be the ultimate disaster to come out of Brexit for the DUP.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Andrew said:

    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).

    The key is more than 7 Lab OR several Lab abstentions.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
    So then we can't ever leave...but that isn't Labour's position. So if we take Labour complaint and their official position, that we should still look leave, have a general election and they can win that and decide the way forward.

    It is that sort of buggering about that has the public so pissed off. It is clear they just want this bringing to a head one way or another.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited October 2019
    Given Cameron's alleged history, his nickname for Boris is perhaps not the most felicitous...

    'Greased piglet' Boris Johnson could pass deal, says David Cameron
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/greased-piglet-boris-johnson-could-pass-deal-says-david-cameron
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tyson said:

    nico67 said:

    Possibly but this is a case of good cop bad cop . Corbyn playing the good cop but others in Labour are going after them .

    Labour MPs who support this deal are toast .

    Corbyn does not need to remove the whip...any Lab MP that cosies up to Johnson's deal will be vilified by the entire movement...that should be sufficient to keeping the majority in line
    Only those who want to remain in a Corbyn Labour Party.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD is more polite than many other posters on this site, I may disagree with him strongly ideologically but he is far nicer than many other people on this website.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575

    "...one of the nicest people in politics"... Er...

    "poisonous treachery of the anti-democaratic Remainers"
    "feeble and faint-hearted ...Remoaners"


    Oh yes he's so nice 😳
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andrew said:

    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens. Betfair marginally favouring yes.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).

    You're missing Woodcock but I think 10 Labour is the minimum required to pass.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Gabs2 said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I don't pretend to know anything much about football or Alex Ferguson. But the fact that he was able to lead a team so effectively for so long speaks to his leadership qualities. And to be a really good leader, IMO, you need a level of integrity because being a good leader requires others to trust you.

    I may be wrong about Alex F of course.

    Ferguson ensured his team trusted him by immediately selling any player that went against him. Beckham, Ronaldo, Stam...
    Fergie was also happy to throw football boots about....
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?
    But he has enormous moral weight as a Nobel peace prize winner for the unionists, and as someone willing to oppose Brexit deals for the unionist side. It shows the DUP are mainly upset at not being able to have a unilateral veto over the whole process, even while a unionist majority at Stormont could.

    The deal is a thoughtful compromise supported by Rees-Mogg and Juncker, Trimble and Varadkar. Those opposing it are doing it for extreme partisan reasons.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    What was the polling for May's deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 2019

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
    Scots are actually split almost evenly, 31% in favour of passing the Boris Deal, 36% against, 33% Don't Know. So more Scots back the Boris Deal as a percentage than Scottish MPs will vote for it, thanks to SNP, LD and Labour opposition

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    Brom said:

    Andrew said:

    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens. Betfair marginally favouring yes.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).

    You're missing Woodcock but I think 10 Labour is the minimum required to pass.
    Depends on the number of Labour Leave abstensions imo.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Apparently the 19 Labour MPs who signed the letter to the EU are going to discuss what to do tonight .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    Cyclefree said:



    I don't pretend to know anything much about football or Alex Ferguson. But the fact that he was able to lead a team so effectively for so long speaks to his leadership qualities. And to be a really good leader, IMO, you need a level of integrity because being a good leader requires others to trust you.

    I may be wrong about Alex F of course.

    Ferguson ensured his team trusted him by immediately selling any player that went against him. Beckham, Ronaldo, Stam...
    Fergie was also happy to throw football boots about....
    Football agent claimed he gave Alex Ferguson gold watch to fix match, court told

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/17/tommy-wright-former-barnsley-coach-allegedly-took-bribe-court-told

    For anybody who saw the special Panorama on football transfers back in the day, this might ring some bells....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Fenster said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Fenster said:
    That's fair, but I've met lots of people (women as well as men) who have serious faults and sometimes trample on the weak but they get stuff done.

    Look at someone like Alex Ferguson at Man Utd. Not the greatest player, no academic background, a brutal temper, a man who made (he admitted himself) mistakes in the heat of the moment... but a force of nature who dragged his players over the line time and time again.

    I'm not saying Boris is Sir Alex, but he is a character who seems to add a supercharge to an environment and is able to persuade and cajole (despite all his faults). The political situation has needed that.
    The mistake people make is judging a persons ability to do anything on their failure to be good at one thing. Can only lead to a dogma, a code if you like.
    I agree with that if you mean that there is a tendency to overvalue academic credentials, say, and ignore the fact that some apparently highly intelligent people are utterly lacking in common-sense, integrity or other qualities.
    I have a friend who is very selfish, treats people thoughtlessly, and whom I wouldn't let date any relative or friend of mine, such is his lack of loyalty/extreme insecurity when it comes to relationships. Yet he is a fantastic businessman and I would seek his advice on the property market despite all of those poor character traits, and lend him money if he ever asked. Why should one influence the other?

    People are a curious mixture. There are very few people who are all good or all bad. The key to success in life, it seems to me, is to find a niche where your good qualities shine and your bad ones don't matter.

    BTW I certainly wouldn't lend money to someone with the qualities you describe. If anything, I'd be asking why someone who is a fantastic businessperson would need to borrow money from a friend rather than from a more conventional source. But then I'm a somewhat mistrustful cynical sort ....... :)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Does anyone have links for how May's deal polled and in what form the questions were asked?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited October 2019
    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    What was the polling for May's deal?
    It was shit because all and sundry trashed the deal on arrival.
    Now unless you give a hoot about Northern Ireland's particular customs arrangements which I doubt 99% of people in England and Wales have ever given a second thought suddenly people are in favour of this one even though it is substantially similar to May's because the hardcore ERG have been able to hold their tongue (Even Owen Patterson it seems !) thus meaning leavers can own it far more than May.
    Barely anyone will have read either.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Brom said:

    Andrew said:

    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens. Betfair marginally favouring yes.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).

    You're missing Woodcock but I think 10 Labour is the minimum required to pass.
    And Field and possibly Lewis and Lamb
    Edit - chalk Lewis as a yes, he was a remainer but has become an out by the 31st with a deal if possible person
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
    So then we can't ever leave...but that isn't Labour's position. So if we take Labour complaint and their official position, that we should still look leave, have a general election and they can win that and decide the way forward.

    It is that sort of buggering about that has the public so pissed off. It is clear they just want this bringing to a head one way or another.
    I don't disagree with that. I do think there is going to be a lot of anger when people realise the path the country has inevitably been sent down by Brexit. An ever more divided, angry and brutal place, forced to jettison European style protections from market forces in order to attract footloose capital.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,575
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
    Scots are actually split almost evenly, 31% in favour of passing the Boris Deal, 36% against, 29% Don't Know

    Haha!

    If that was 36% in favour and 31% against you'd be dropping the DKs and telling us it was 54% in favour :lol:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    Andrew said:

    Wishing the spreadbetting companies would put up a market. Smarkets has one at least, makes it dead evens. Betfair marginally favouring yes.

    Struggling to see how they get over the line myself, although it's clearly close ( 287 + 18/21 + 7 Lab + Austin + Lloyd =314).

    That Brecon & Radnorshire by-election result looking even more important now, if Boris loses by one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    That therei s only 10% difference between Labour voters should scare Labour shitless. Dicking about delaying Brexit is, er, unwise.

    Abstain still looks their best bet.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    At the moment I think the deal will scrape through . The only forecast though that I’ve got right in the last 3 years is what would happen with the Varadkar and Johnson meeting .
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
    Scots are actually split almost evenly, 31% in favour of passing the Boris Deal, 36% against, 33% Don't Know. So more Scots back the Boris Deal as a percentage than Scottish MPs will vote for it, thanks to SNP, LD and Labour opposition

    Couldn't.
    Make.
    It.
    Up.

    Parody level now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
    So then we can't ever leave...but that isn't Labour's position. So if we take Labour complaint and their official position, that we should still look leave, have a general election and they can win that and decide the way forward.

    It is that sort of buggering about that has the public so pissed off. It is clear they just want this bringing to a head one way or another.
    I don't disagree with that. I do think there is going to be a lot of anger when people realise the path the country has inevitably been sent down by Brexit. An ever more divided, angry and brutal place, forced to jettison European style protections from market forces in order to attract footloose capital.
    So Labour should be honest and say that we should never Brexit because of this. It is the dishonest positioning that is pissing people off, all this well I still want Brexit, but Computer Says No to every single option.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Chris said:

    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.

    Does don't know = don't care?

    I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
    The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves"
    I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Gabs2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs2 said:

    tyson said:

    isam said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:



    I have learnt the wishes of Protestants as well as Catholics in Ireland must be respected

    What if there's a hamlet in Kilkenny with 13 protestants in it who fancy reunification back into the uk, and 5 catholics who don't?
    Well the Protestants can move to Antrim and the Catholics stay put
    I think you need to clarify what effect the nuclear war with Spain may have on this. You absolute loony.

    Get help - urgently.
    I really do not understand why HYUFD has become so extreme and provocative

    It is very disappointing

    I'd venture he is one of a tiny minority of people on this site not to have used pejorative terms to describe others

    That is a fair point......HYUFD never seems to play the person, and he always posts his views in a respectful way....
    Completely agree.
    However recent posts have been absolutely bonkers, he seemed to just change completely a month or two ago.
    I am not denying that. But he is always polite in his bonkersness.
    He has on occasion been quite rude to me. Quite late at night so I will put it down to that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm actually surprised the vote to back the deal is only 41-24 so plenty of Undecideds and perhaps not the stampede of public euphoria some on here would have us believe.

    Needless to say, that euphoria will be ramped up by the pro-Johnson press over the weekend especially if the Deal passes tomorrow and I imagine the next stage will be the clamour for a GE to give Boris his mandate to transform the UK into "the greatest place on Earth" which will be fine for a few but not, I suspect, for many others.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    @Cyclefree

    He wouldn't need to borrow money from me, what I am saying is he may be untrustworthy in relationships, but he is very straight in other respects, one of them being financially

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    Scotland the only region to think that parliament should vote to reject the deal, the naughty, little, diehard remainer tinkers that we are. I'm sure HYUFD will be along shortly to divine the 'real' meaning of this.
    Scots are actually split almost evenly, 31% in favour of passing the Boris Deal, 36% against, 33% Don't Know

    But 64% are against Brexit in the very same poll, in the first question. (edit: 5% DK).

    What you are getting is people who are either bored, fed up, or want to move on to indyref2 with such new opportunities which Brexit may offer, as well as a presumably decreasing minority who think Westminster is supreme.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    Other than Labour have a toxic leader and bat shit crazy platform of policies....lots of remainers are remainers because they are pro-business, pro-globalization etc, and the Labour platform is exactly the opposite of that.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?

    Not among the DUP! :smile:
    ... which may be why Trimble supports the deal. He was the leader of the largest Unionist party until usurped by the DUP.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    Chris said:

    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.

    Does don't know = don't care?

    I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
    The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves"
    I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
    Don't you trust the British public to decide their own futures?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    I'd agree with that actually.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Unclear why people think this deal is bad for Union.

    Most people in NI will breathe sigh of relief that there is no hard border. DUP losing face will help to keep nationalist-minded community on board with UK.

    In Scotland, most folk want Brexit over and simply don't want another IndyRef. There will be no SNP landslide. Fishing and farming leaders have endorsed Boris's deal, including Andrew McCornick (NFU Scotland chair) who usually is warm to ScotGov. So that helps to shore up SCon vote in rural and NE seats. SCon MPs are going to be very sticky.

    And I don't think the SNP argument about Scotland having same deal as Ulster will resonate that much. Its understood that NI is a special case. Don't mistake the preoccupations of the Nat bubble with mainstream Scottish opinion.

    Garbage from you as usual, you know zero about Scotland given the dribble you post. Majority want a referendum and when it comes a majority will want independence. Nobody believes NI is any more a special case than Scotland. Acouple of millionaire Tory farmers and fisherman do not constitute the public of Scotland you halfwitted dullard.
    Well, Malc, the proof will be in the pudding, won't it. I expect a period of silence from you after the next GE similar in duration to that which occurred after June 2017 when Salmond, Robertson et al bit the dust.
    You have a surprising knowledge of PB history for such a recent visitor, well done for observing a period of silence up to August of this year. Good that PB has a new voice that alternates between sockpuppeting for BJ Brexit and SNPbaaad, we just don't get enough of that.
    Have to say I don't ever remember being silent either.
    Quite right, lang may yer lum reek!
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?

    Not among the DUP! :smile:
    ... which may be why Trimble supports the deal. He was the leader of the largest Unionist party until usurped by the DUP.
    Except the UUP are opposing, again for partisan advantage. Trimble is independent in this, as shown by him opposing May's deal.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited October 2019

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
    So then we can't ever leave...but that isn't Labour's position. So if we take Labour complaint and their official position, that we should still look leave, have a general election and they can win that and decide the way forward.

    It is that sort of buggering about that has the public so pissed off. It is clear they just want this bringing to a head one way or another.
    The Labour position would be a specific form of Brexit that doesn't massively deregulate versus remain though, neither of which involves voting for Johnson's deal, for someone who was apparently previously Labour I can't understanding the feigning ignorance at the left being against stripping worker or environmental regulations?

    Is it really that unbelievable that the left might be strongly against removing things which are among their whole reason for being?!
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    100% this. Especially if the Tories try to pass a US trade deal with unreasonable measures, which they might. If this deal passes, Labour have a major opportunity to be constantly fighting as defenders of UK public services and regulatory protections.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    Other than Labour's:
    - awful leadership
    - 1970s economic policies
    - position on crime and national security
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    Gabs2 said:

    The irony in all of this is that Labour claim to be opposing the deal because it makes possible deregulation (even though it doesn't actually deregulate anything). But by opposing it, they are ensuring Leave seats across the North, Midlands and Wales fall to the Tories, which will actually make deregulation happen.

    I have to say of all the excuses for not voting for this, this seems the weakest. The whole point of leaving is supposedly we get to choose these kind of issues, and so if Labour get into power they can legislate to regulate to their hearts content. They can take every EU directive, gold plate it and copy it into UK law.

    But then Jezza never read the first WA and announced he was against this new deal before the actual details had even been released.
    I don't think this is quite right. We do not face a free menu of policy choices independent of each other and the broader economic context. Outside the EU single market we will be pretty much forced by economic logic to deregulate, as it will be the only way of attracting investment. Of course the free market fundamentalists who have bankrolled Brexit understand this, hence their backing for it.
    So then we can't ever leave...but that isn't Labour's position. So if we take Labour complaint and their official position, that we should still look leave, have a general election and they can win that and decide the way forward.

    It is that sort of buggering about that has the public so pissed off. It is clear they just want this bringing to a head one way or another.
    I don't disagree with that. I do think there is going to be a lot of anger when people realise the path the country has inevitably been sent down by Brexit. An ever more divided, angry and brutal place, forced to jettison European style protections from market forces in order to attract footloose capital.
    So Labour should be honest and say that we should never Brexit because of this. It is the dishonest positioning that is pissing people off, all this well I still want Brexit, but Computer Says No to every single option.
    I agree, Labour's position has been dire, although I understand the nature of their dilemma and I think the desire to find a compromise position was well motivated. I think there is a general lack of understanding among people of how the economic logic of our position post Brexit will more or less force us down a path that most people will be deeply unhappy about (while the super rich who bankrolled Brexit will be ecstatic). I am very depressed about our country's future.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Francois is a media whore and just wants to feel important . This is all showboating . The ERG will back the deal .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150058855096320

    Polling like this must be worth something in convincing the undecided. Clearly the deal is being embraced by the public in a way that May's never was.

    What was the polling for May's deal?
    It was shit because all and sundry trashed the deal on arrival.
    Now unless you give a hoot about Northern Ireland's particular customs arrangements which I doubt 99% of people in England and Wales have ever given a second thought suddenly people are in favour of this one even though it is substantially similar to May's because the hardcore ERG have been able to hold their tongue (Even Owen Patterson it seems !) thus meaning leavers can own it far more than May.
    Barely anyone will have read either.
    Yep. It was the poison from Tory leavers the minute May’s deal was unveiled that set the narrative and doomed it to fail.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    And Field and possibly Lewis and Lamb
    Edit - chalk Lewis as a yes, he was a remainer but has become an out by the 31st with a deal if possible person

    I was looking at Woodcock and Lewis as possible abstentions, at which point the number of result combinations becomes unmanageable :-)

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    edited October 2019
    If the deal is passed I think Labour should probably ditch both Corbyn & ref2 and move to a close Norway style relationship with Europe.

    It'll be an easier sell than rejoin, is coherent and leaves a gap to the Tories (Hard brexit) and Lib Dems (Rejoin for sure I think)

    I mean if they were smart...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Indie ian Austin is a yes
    David Trimble announces his backing

    That is a huge coup for Boris. Especially given Trimble opoosed May's deal.

    But Trimble doesn't have a vote in the Commons, does he? Does he have much of a following?

    Not among the DUP! :smile:
    ... which may be why Trimble supports the deal. He was the leader of the largest Unionist party until usurped by the DUP.
    The UUP are of course the sister party of the Tories so Boris will be very pleased to have the support of the former UUP Leader Lord Trimble.

    The DUP are now basically the sister party of the Brexit Party and indeed last year there was talk of Farage joining the DUP

    https://news.sky.com/story/former-ukip-leader-nigel-farage-dampens-claims-he-could-join-dup-11367561
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alastair Campbell and Richard Tice both on tv now slamming the deal!

    Tice doesn't seem to have much energy for the argument anymore to me.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Chris said:

    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.

    Does don't know = don't care?

    I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
    The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves"
    I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
    Poodles vote for their masters time and time again. Voting for a deal supported by Varadkar, Barnier and Juncker does not qualify. They are all content it will be politically impossible for the UK to deregulate, because it will be.
  • nico67 said:

    Francois is a media whore and just wants to feel important . This is all showboating . The ERG will back the deal .
    Francois is to the Tories what Jess Phillips is to labour
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    @Cyclefree

    He wouldn't need to borrow money from me, what I am saying is he may be untrustworthy in relationships, but he is very straight in other respects, one of them being financially

    Understood. Some people can be rubbish at the personal stuff but very good elsewhere I agree.

    I was perhaps more thinking about people who are lacking in common-sense and integrity in their work life despite having a lot of academic credentials. I don't assume that intelligence and honesty necessarily go together.
  • Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    I'd agree with that actually.
    Except the immediate and urgent question becomes what GB is going to do with its newfound freedom. Where on a spectrum from WTO to EEA do we actually want to end up?
  • justin124 said:

    If this Deal passes, I believe the LDs will be the main losers. There would no longer be a strong motivation for Remainers to switch from Labour. Other issues would come to the fore which play to Labour's advantage.

    Other than Labour have a toxic leader and bat shit crazy platform of policies....lots of remainers are remainers because they are pro-business, pro-globalization etc, and the Labour platform is exactly the opposite of that.
    The leader, I'll grant you that, but their policies are really good and a good platform to make this country better.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Andrew said:


    And Field and possibly Lewis and Lamb
    Edit - chalk Lewis as a yes, he was a remainer but has become an out by the 31st with a deal if possible person

    I was looking at Woodcock and Lewis as possible abstentions, at which point the number of result combinations becomes unmanageable :-)

    Lewis wrote a piece in September saying leave with a deal Oct 31 but no deal would be better than continued uncertainty. Plus he despises Corbyn, represents a leave seat and is standing again as an indy. Hes a definite yes
    Woodcock would prefer a ref so yeah maybe abstain but he would enjoy shafting Corbyn
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Chris said:

    I think the YouGov poll on the deal is interesting - 41% in favour, 24% against.

    35% don't know among the general population and remain voters, but only 23% among leave voters.

    Don't knows by party: Con 20%. LD 27%, Lab 40%.

    I'm not quite sure how to fit those figures together, but I am not sure Labour is wise to oppose the deal, because it's supporters don't care about it anywhere near as much as the Tories'.

    Does don't know = don't care?

    I think the honest answer yesterday for >75% of the population would be "don't know" tbh.
    The Northern Ireland arrangement is not a big thing with Labour. But labour market rules are. As the FT reports today: "One of the Johnson government's opening moves …..was to assert Britain's right to junk EU labour market rules and other regulatory standards after it leaves"
    I find it incomprehensible how a Labour MP, yes, a Labour MP, could possibly support this . If the vote does succeed it will be by a couple of votes and those handful of Labour MPs who vote for it will deserve all the opprobrium they will get until they die. Johnson's poodles !
    I find it equally unfathomable that people are of the opinion that we are not capable of framing our own laws and regulations on Environment, Labour, Working Practices and other regulatory standards.
This discussion has been closed.