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  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    edited October 2019
    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
    From the Graun:

    "On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
    So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
    It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!

    Yep - Ireland has got exactly what it wanted from all this. This is an absolute triumph for Varadker.

    And a triumph for Boris. Thats what negotiation is all about.
    Boris Johnson

    Oh lets just call him "Boris" :D

    The man who wouldn't make it to the final two of the Conservative Leadership contest, the biggest lay of all time to win it ("lay him like one of his many conquests" etc) the man who, of course, wants No Deal, has made a deal that couldn't be made.

    What a failure!! He must be feeling pretty stupid right now
  • So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.

    Everybody happy?

    And replaces the DUP veto with a Sinn Fein one. The arrangments stand if Stormont isn't sitting. And either party can collapse Stormont at will.
  • eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
    From the Graun:

    "On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
    So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
    It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!
    Correct - it will be easier for NI to sell to the RoI and the rest of Europe than into Great Britain.
    It's looking a bit far ahead but I would imagine it makes a union between NI and The Republic much more likely in due course.

    I wonder if those Sinn Fein MPs might consider taking their seats now?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 4,953

    Nigelb said:

    RIP Elijah Cummings.

    ???????

    [Edit: I had to Google that. I thought it was some sort of sarcasm related to the Master Wargamer]
    He died last night
    And 68 is not all that old....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Scott_P said:
    Of course he fucking does. It is perfect for him.

    JFC this is a Kafkaesque nightmare from whixh the country can never awaken.

    Sindy better fucking hurry up and get here so I can be shot of this mess.
  • nico67 said:

    Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .

    Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .

    Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensions
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    isam said:

    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
    From the Graun:

    "On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
    So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
    It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!

    Yep - Ireland has got exactly what it wanted from all this. This is an absolute triumph for Varadker.

    And a triumph for Boris. Thats what negotiation is all about.
    Boris Johnson

    The man who wouldn't make it to the final two of the Conservative Leadership contest, the biggest lay of all time to win it ("lay him like on of his many conquests" etc) the man who, of course, wants No Deal, has made a deal that couldn't be made.

    What a failure!! He must be feeling pretty stupid right now
    He's in a pretty strong position now despite being written off by many in recent months. He'll never get a deal they said, and what's more it seems a pretty good one to most.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Fucking thousands of posts on this message board proclaiming the genius of May and how the deal was definetly going to pass.

    Now we replay the cycle with Boris who has a worse deal.

    FUCK
    A
    DUCK
  • TOPPING said:

    I mean how could people not see this?
    Its only definitive so long as Stormont wants it to be. And if Stormont wants it to be then that is entirely appropriate!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    Morning all, having been through the reality of (Even slight) tarrifs from the USA I've come to the conclusion that between the Democratic mandate that I regard as very important of actually leaving and the economic reality of a Brexit that anything like leavers will accept, the DUP, the idiots in Labour, Jolyon Maugham, Nigel Farage, the Lib Dem manifesto essentially creating space on the right for a straight leave even post 2nd referendum based upon a simple right majority and all the other jokers in the pack we're basically fucked.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Alistair said:

    Fucking thousands of posts on this message board proclaiming the genius of May and how the deal was definetly going to pass.

    Now we replay the cycle with Boris who has a worse deal.

    FUCK
    A
    DUCK

    worse deal? what you smoking. Sound like a cybernat!
  • So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.

    Everybody happy?

    I am. Its democratic.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .

    Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .

    Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensions
    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder
  • People lining up to support Johnson's deal after trashing May's near identical deal:

    https://punch.photoshelter.com/image/I0000eHEXGJ_wImQ
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523

    So this is May's Deal, without the backstop and NI still in the EU.

    Everybody happy?

    Whatever deal our PM agrees with the EU is fine by me, same as it ever was.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    nico67 said:

    Not sure the EU will go for no extension and it’s either this deal or no deal .

    Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .

    Sky already reporting multiple EU leaders accept Boris argument for no further extensions
    This will give a few of the FBPE crowd the chills. But entirely the correct thing to do. Dragging this thing out for another couple of years fails Britain and fails the EU. Hopefully the EU leaders see sense here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    TOPPING said:

    I mean how could people not see this?
    Its only definitive so long as Stormont wants it to be. And if Stormont wants it to be then that is entirely appropriate!
    Yes I agree. It is of course a diminution in the integrity of the United Kingdom but I don't suppose leavers care too much about that.

    You saw my reply to your bet post.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all, having been through the reality of (Even slight) tarrifs from the USA I've come to the conclusion that between the Democratic mandate that I regard as very important of actually leaving and the economic reality of a Brexit that anything like leavers will accept, the DUP, the idiots in Labour, Jolyon Maugham, Nigel Farage, the Lib Dem manifesto essentially creating space on the right for a straight leave even post 2nd referendum based upon a simple right majority and all the other jokers in the pack we're basically fucked.

    Sounds about right.

    Politics is much more fun when you give into pessimism completely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    TOPPING said:

    I mean how could people not see this?
    Its only definitive so long as Stormont wants it to be. And if Stormont wants it to be then that is entirely appropriate!
    Another theoretical freedom that everybody knows, in practice, will never be exercised.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Of course he fucking does. It is perfect for him.

    JFC this is a Kafkaesque nightmare from whixh the country can never awaken.

    Sindy better fucking hurry up and get here so I can be shot of this mess.
    You ok if I move to Scotland first?
  • Not sure that's right, Carlotta. Revoking would always be an option, so if Parliament rejected Boris's Deal, it would be a straight choice - No Deal or Revoke.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,520
    Quiet morning huh?

    In all the noise, did anyone spot the UUP coming out for Remain? If the DUP didn't already have enough heat on them, they now run the risk of getting stuck and losing unionist ground if they don't have a groundswell of support behind their position. And it's always been suggested that DUP supporters are nowhere near as hardline as their leaders, particularly the farming community.

    Yet another headache and risk for poor Arlene.

    I won't rush to judgement, let's see the text, but for those who saw Theresa May's deal as too hard to consider supporting, hard to see what's attractive about this one - Boris has chosen to chase votes in the other direction which I can understand, but not much for those on the other side to think too hard about.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818

    TOPPING said:

    I mean how could people not see this?
    Its only definitive so long as Stormont wants it to be. And if Stormont wants it to be then that is entirely appropriate!
    The DUP know that because the deal can only be changed by Stormont as a whole they've lost.

    I suspect the only reason they are quiet is because they are trying to recover from discovering how screwed they now are. Brexit will slowly push Northern Ireland into Ireland and there is nothing they can do about it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Scott_P said:
    So we've smoked out the first person who has been telling porkies.

    Nigel you were lying the whole time and your party is a lie. The Brexit Party stands for perpetual madness and not actually Getting Brexit Done.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523

    People lining up to support Johnson's deal after trashing May's near identical deal:

    https://punch.photoshelter.com/image/I0000eHEXGJ_wImQ

    I know of several on here who said May's deal should have been passed... just waiting for them to congratulate Boris on resurrecting it (if that's what he has done)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,118
    edited October 2019
    No shit sherlock....I think if Gove had become PM rather than May, he would have taken a much harder stance straight out the gate and I think we would have got to this point a lot quicker.

    Instead May and the people she put in place were a combination of people who are fairly sharp, but thought Brexit was optional e.g. Olly Robbins and morons e.g. David Davis.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    edited October 2019
    Personally I'm hoping we become a vassal state outside the EU *in eternal transition* subject to all its rules and regulations without any MEPs.

    De Facto Inside EU
    De Jure Outside EU

    You lot think I'm joking ? I'm entirely serious !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    So far the reaction has been entirely predictable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Anorak said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Of course he fucking does. It is perfect for him.

    JFC this is a Kafkaesque nightmare from whixh the country can never awaken.

    Sindy better fucking hurry up and get here so I can be shot of this mess.
    You ok if I move to Scotland first?
    If only it had better weather
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    No shit sherlock....I think if Gove had become PM rather than May, he would have taken a much harder stance straight out the gate and I think we would have got to this point a lot quicker.
    I.e. we could have conceded that Northern Ireland would need a permanently different solution to Great Britain?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    isam said:

    People lining up to support Johnson's deal after trashing May's near identical deal:

    https://punch.photoshelter.com/image/I0000eHEXGJ_wImQ

    I know of several on here who said May's deal should have been passed... just waiting for them to congratulate Boris on resurrecting it (if that's what he has done)
    I supported May's deal. I supported Rory in the Tory leadership because I thought he could potentially sell Theresa's deal in MV4. I was sceptical of Boris but I am glad he has deal. I want Brexit Done with a deal. If that is impossible, after being tested to the limit, then Brexit should be no deal. But clearly a deal is there, so take it.

    Over to you Parliamentarians.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    No extension = opposition own no deal or revoke and the consequences.
    Tee hee
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited October 2019
    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Andrew said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited October 2019
    Of course it could. The EU offered something very similar in 2017. But Theresa May couldn't get it past her own cabinet and the DUP. Do keep up, Bruno!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The deal has made the chances of a second vote higher and revoke if the EU make it a take it or leave it offer .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Brom said:

    Andrew said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
    If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Personally I'm hoping we become a vassal state outside the EU *in eternal transition* subject to all its rules and regulations without any MEPs.

    De Facto Inside EU
    De Jure Outside EU

    You lot think I'm joking ? I'm entirely serious !

    That would do me fine, but I dunno about the average voter.

    Indeed, I'm not sure how aware a lot of people are that the transition changes precisely NOTHING -- that, even if Boris's Brexit deal passes, everything (immigration, trade, ECJ, regulations, etc) stays the same the day after. The EU refused to give even any token changes to fishing rights.

    I was really surprised the other day that even @Richard_Tyndall (who is much more intelligent and informed than the average Brit) seemed to think incorrectly that the transition meant just staying in the Single Market, and that we'd be released from all other EU obligations.
  • Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    Not sure that's right, Carlotta. Revoking would always be an option, so if Parliament rejected Boris's Deal, it would be a straight choice - No Deal or Revoke.
    But that would be an improvement. What is unacceptable is further prevarication because of an inability to agree now. There is a report referred to in the Telegraph today indicating that the uncertainty of the last 3 years has been costing us £525m a week. We simply cannot go on knocking this into the long grass in the hope some entirely mythical consensus evolves. Its not going to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out: am extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    An example of a huge U-turn would be the Scottish Tories with their obsession with a few millionaire fishermen - given the commitment to conservation (I should hope so too, given the fishing industry's greed in the past) and to continuing access by fellow European fishing boats. And as for the other fishermen a lot will depend on what happens to lorries at Dover.

    (It also destroys one of their claims against the SNP in Europe, that the SNP want to stay in the CFP. but that's off your topic.)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Smeeth sounds on board, which would be a coup. Presumably Snell, Nandy and the others must be strongly considering it. I don't think Boris would need the DUP in those circumstances (though it would help!).
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    edited October 2019

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    "It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage."

    What % do the Brexit Party get in a GE that they fight on No Deal , and Boris fights on his deal? What is your EVEN money line we can bet on?
  • IanB2 said:

    Brom said:

    Andrew said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
    If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.
    Looks like Boris is actively making it redundant by persuading the EU leaders to rule out an extension. Let us see what is in the final communique
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    edited October 2019
    Brom said:

    Andrew said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
    The Benn Act will be satisfied (not redundant) if:

    "United Kingdom has concluded an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and... the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown..."

    But if the deal does not get through the HoC, the PM still needs to request an extension.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    The ERG got almost 100% behind Johnson to a man in the election. Steve Baker seems to be behind the deal and he's as hard a Brexiteer as you'll find.

    I think anyone that votes against the deal should be permanently expelled from the Tories be it Owen Patterson or either Hammond.
  • nico67 said:

    The deal has made the chances of a second vote higher and revoke if the EU make it a take it or leave it offer .

    Referendum is dead if it is a take it or leave it offer
  • The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out: am extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    Boris should be fine. The Leavers' mindset is now concerned with what's best for Boris Johnson; the mechanism of how we leave the EU is now largely irrelevant to them. The way Boris turned the euro-sceptic cause into a personality cult that revolves around him was a stroke of genius.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    I was really surprised the other day that even @Richard_Tyndall (who is much more intelligent and informed than the average Brit) seemed to think incorrectly that the transition meant just staying in the Single Market, and that we'd be released from all other EU obligations.

    One thing that's surprised me throughout this process is how many people seem to have wilfully avoided engaging with the substance long after fantasy hit reality, so that the same issues keep coming back, or people discover 'new' issues that were there to begin with.
  • Alistair said:

    Fucking thousands of posts on this message board proclaiming the genius of May and how the deal was definetly going to pass.

    Now we replay the cycle with Boris who has a worse deal.

    FUCK
    A
    DUCK

    Not the same people.

    Probably.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IanB2 said:


    If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.

    Or if an extension is agreed beforehand - it would still be in force but would be irrelevant. Thus ….


    1) Johnson & Council agree a two week extension today, with the stated purpose of allowing time for Parliament to scrutinise.

    2) Sat19th arrives, Benn Act kicks in, Johnson forced to write letter. Council ignores it as extension already agreed.

    3) We have a MV, maybe not on Saturday now but in a few weeks. Parliament is forced into deal or no-deal.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!

    I'm very happy to support this

    Well done everyone!

    PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?

    What was the bet? Happy to honour just would like to be reminded what we said.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/21/with-the-iowa-betting-markets-now-being-opened-a-helpful-primer-on-how-its-caucuses-actually-work/

    There was more talk before but the terms were discussed here:

    Philip_Thompson said: So I say when we leave we will do so without the backstop as currently formulated. If we leave without a deal or with a legally-binding change to the backstop [not the PD] then I win.
    If we do leave with the backstop as currently formulated OR revoke then you win.

    Bet for straight cost of Conservative Party membership, as I will not be a member if we sign up to the backstop. I'm happy with that. Deal?

    TOPPING: Hmm can we amend it to something that achieves the same as the backstop? Ie that administratively retains the backstop measures?

    If that is a huge problem then I'm happy for the bet as you describe but I will retain bragging rights if what we end up with looks, smells, and feels like a backstop.

    Philip_Thompson: For the terms of a bet I think that complicates matters and I'm not sure who could neutrally abritrate that matter, so unless someone neutral is happy to abritrate that if you're happy to go with the terms I'd prefer that. Realistically I think its moot since the EU have said they're refusing to renegotiate anyway I think any renegotiation that does occur would be meaningful.

    Any change to PD is not meaningful.

    TOPPING: Yes it is complicating. We will agree on that (your) bet and if either one of us feels it is not 100% appropriate to claim victory then so be it.
    Thanks. There is definitely a mechanism for NI to leave "the EU" (for that is what this current deal means) if it wants and hence staying is not the default position which it was with the backstop and hence I am happy that the backstop has been materially amended. Hence you win the bet.
    Thank you, you are a gentleman.

    We've had a lot of heated discussions in the past 12 months as we both had principles involved, and I respect your and where you were coming from even though I had other priorities. Hopefully now this can go through and we can all move on soon.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited October 2019
    isam said:

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    "It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage."

    What % do the Brexit Party get in a GE that they fight on No Deal , and Boris fights on his deal?
    I've no real idea, and I don't think anyone else has. If Farage, probably with help from some of the more extreme ERGers. were to repeat the same trick they've successfully pulled before, and establish the narrative that this isn't 'real Brexit', then perhaps quite a large percentage. This is about spin, not reality; the deal clearly is 'real Brexit', but then so was Theresa May's, and they managed to spin that to an early grave.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Chalk another one up, Boris would have had Boles down as 50/50
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,068
    nice to see michael gove floating down a river in africa.

    asked "what happens when Labour get an amendment on the deal through to have a second referendum" he just keeps replying "ain't gonna happen"
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
  • If Boles is on board it is likely many others ex conservstives will be as well
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    It is interesting to cast our minds back to the cheers that Theresa May received when she said that a border between NI and GB was something that no British PM could ever sign up to.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    Still, chickens haven't yet been counted. There is a very substantial risk of failure in the HoC. But Boris does now have a possible way out via plan B: an extension and a GE where the Conservative party campaigns on this deal. That would involve a massive U-turn by some Conservative MPs and by the party as a whole, which had become obsessed with a No Deal crash-out on October 31st. It would also obviously involve losing a chunk of voters to Farage. Anyone who thinks he knows how this would play out is kidding himself.

    What has been evident, and I am far from a fan of Boris, is that there has been a real focus both with the ERG and the DUP to bring people into the process and bring them along. That may not have succeeded so far as the DUP is concerned but the attempt has been real and energetic. The contrast with the deus ex machina operations of May (whose own Brexit Secretaries were not even in the loop) is stark and telling.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    It looks like a worse deal to me. Nearly a year wasted for this? I'd take May's deal over it any day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    Brom said:

    Smeeth sounds on board, which would be a coup. Presumably Snell, Nandy and the others must be strongly considering it. I don't think Boris would need the DUP in those circumstances (though it would help!).

    Lady Smeeth if Corbyn wants to chuck her out the party ;)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Brom said:


    Chalk another one up, Boris would have had Boles down as 50/50

    Yeah, that side seem to be coming on board. Bebb thought it might be 6 to 8 no votes, but looking like 3 or 4.

    Still leaves them about 9 short without the DUP.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,176
    edited October 2019


    Boris should be fine. The Leavers' mindset is now concerned with what's best for Boris Johnson; the mechanism of how we leave the EU is now largely irrelevant to them. The way Boris turned the euro-sceptic cause into a personality cult that revolves around him was a stroke of genius.

    You might be right. One thing he has done right, or been lucky with, is to get his betrayal in early enough, without there being enough time for the normal general disillusionment to sap his support.
  • isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,983

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!

    I'm very happy to support this

    Well done everyone!

    PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?

    What was the bet? Happy to honour just would like to be reminded what we said.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/08/21/with-the-iowa-betting-markets-now-being-opened-a-helpful-primer-on-how-its-caucuses-actually-work/

    There was more talk before but the terms were discussed here:

    Philip_Thompson said: So Imething that achieves the same as the backstop? Ie that administratively retains the backstop measures?

    If that is a huge problem then I'm happy for the bet as you describe but I will retain bragging rights if what we end up with looks, smells, and feels like a backstop.

    Philip_Thompson: For the terms of a bet I think that complicates matters and I'm not sure who could neutrally abritrate that matter, so unless someone neutral is happy to abritrate that if you're happy to go with the terms I'd prefer that. Realistically I think its moot since the EU have said they're refusing to renegotiate anyway I think any renegotiation that does occur would be meaningful.

    Any change to PD is not meaningful.

    TOPPING: Yes it is complicating. We will agree on that (your) bet and if either one of us feels it is not 100% appropriate to claim victory then so be it.
    Thanks. There is definitely a mechanism for NI to leave "the EU" (for that is what this current deal means) if it wants and hence staying is not the default position which it was with the backstop and hence I am happy that the backstop has been materially amended. Hence you win the bet.
    Thank you, you are a gentleman.

    We've had a lot of heated discussions in the past 12 months as we both had principles involved, and I respect your and where you were coming from even though I had other priorities. Hopefully now this can go through and we can all move on soon.
    Likewise and likewise.

    How/where do you want the $$$?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    glw said:

    The key point here is: has Boris managed to betray the ERG who put him into No 10? He's signed up to a deal which clearly trashes their red lines more than Theresa May's deal did, but to be fair to him it is possible that he might have done this in such a way as to corner them into grudging acquiescence. He might be a lucky general after all; he's certainly been massively helped by the Benn Act.

    It looks like a worse deal to me. Nearly a year wasted for this? I'd take May's deal over it any day.
    I'm not sure how much of a difference there will be in practice by the time we get to the end of the transitional period but I certainly agree that those who voted against May's deal should continue to be held in deep contempt.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,068

    isam said:

    Many commuters were left scratching their heads this morning, bewildered by an environmental protest that targeted one of the most environmentally friendly ways to travel.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-50079716

    Perhaps because a lot of the XR leaders, the eco stuff is only part of their agenda...its to over through the system they really want.

    They've admitted it was to stop people getting into the City of London, ie the banking district.

    Wouldn't have thought Canning Town was the best place to do that, as the Jubilee Line doesn't run into the City
    "It's an electric train!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dv2O1wWpkI
    are there any diesels left on the underground?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979


    Boris should be fine. The Leavers' mindset is now concerned with what's best for Boris Johnson; the mechanism of how we leave the EU is now largely irrelevant to them. The way Boris turned the euro-sceptic cause into a personality cult that revolves around him was a stroke of genius.

    You might be right. One thing he has done right, or been lucky with, is to get his betrayal in early enough, without there being enough time for the normal general disillusionment to sap his support.
    BJ has the Brexit supporting media behind him at the moment. They can still move away from him. I dont share the view he has a personalty cult behind him, like Corbyn or Trump.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    Boris is thick - but so is the general public so all we can do is make the best of it.

    I'm just glad I sell software which is about as invisible an export as you can get.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    DavidL said:

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
    This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.

    It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I never thought I'd spend this much time frantically refreshing DUP politicians' Twitter feeds.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Have the DUP indicated if they will vote against or abstain? Could be vital too
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:
    What can Corbyn do?

    Vote for a deal that makes a united Ireland more likely or against it?

    Every facet has one that is opposite.

    This is only true of faucets if you have hot and cold.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    DavidL said:

    I'm not sure how much of a difference there will be in practice by the time we get to the end of the transitional period but I certainly agree that those who voted against May's deal should continue to be held in deep contempt.

    The backstop was not in the EU's interest as it effectively gave us single maket access for next to nothing. It would have been in the EU's interest to bring it to an end with an agreed FTA as soon as possible. Now they seem to have carved off a chunk of the UK. I don't see how any Unionist can support this deal.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Not sure that's right, Carlotta. Revoking would always be an option, so if Parliament rejected Boris's Deal, it would be a straight choice - No Deal or Revoke.
    I suspect that the Labour Leavers might finally intervene and vote for any Deal over Revoke or No Deal.

    Corbyn would hope that he could get away with not removing the whip from them.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,258

    IanB2 said:

    Brom said:

    Andrew said:


    Maugham will love that, he will be straight in court with a fresh crowdfunder

    Only if Johnson is doing it after the Benn Act kicks in, which is on Sat 19th. Then he (or more accurately, the PM) has a duty to seek an extension. He doesn't beforehand.

    This is the weakness of the Benn Act - they tried to close every loophole, focusing on no-deal scenarios, but never imagined Johnson would actually concede left and right and get a deal instead.

    This is interesting. I wonder if the Benn act will now be redundant.
    If MPs vote for a deal tomorrow or Saturday, it’s redundant. Otherwise not.
    Looks like Boris is actively making it redundant by persuading the EU leaders to rule out an extension. Let us see what is in the final communique
    I don't think the EU leaders will make a watertight 'take it or leave it' commitment. There might be some warm words commending it to the house and implicit threats that this is as good as it gets. But I reckon they'd leave the door open for a gamble on another six months in the hope of the existing or new HOC forcing a new referendum.

    If Boris doesn't get and keep control of the narrative and is forced to defend a deal in an election or referendum against charges of "BINO" from Farage and "Singapore on Thames" from Corbyn, he risks turning into May Mark 2.. buffeted from every side. So he's surely banking on getting it through quite painlessly, or he'd have been better off failing to get a deal and fighting his "people v parliament" election.

    As to the Commons maths... I think most ERG will fall into line, but I bet there'll be one or two hold-outs. I wouldn't be surprised if rebels who've announced they're retiring (or have already more or less been kicked out locally) keep rebelling, though others will vote in favour if it gets them back in.

    With Labour whipping against and the DUP not in favour, I still think any confidence in a majority is misplaced.

    (But frankly anything could happen :))
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
    This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.

    It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
    I think its too early to say the numbers aren't there. We have the 21, many but not all of whom wanted a deal, we have Stephen Kinnock's Labour faction that wants a deal, we have the DUP probably opposing, we have more odds and sods in this dysfunctional Parliament than we have had in my lifetime. I really don't know how to call it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    The removal of the UK-wide backstop from the withdrawal agreement massively weakens the UK's bargaining position during the transition. We no longer have the safety of the backstop to fall back on, while Ireland is relatively insulated from No Deal with the provisions for Northern Ireland.

    While we are still a member we had the ultimate backstop of being able to revoke Article 50 if the EU would not offer a good deal, and the EU didn't want to be seen to force a member out by not offering an extension.

    Once we're in the transition we're a third country and I think the EU will turn the screws. I think we will be fucked over really badly if we exit on Johnson's terms compared to if we'd left with May's deal.

    I thought that the UK wide backstop was a bit of a masterstroke that would be helpful even if we didn't want to use it. But these are details. What we need is a deal that can pass the Commons. If this is it, hurrah! The fact that better deals should have passed is irrelevant.
    This deal isn't going to pass - the numbers aren't there.

    It can however pass if Boris accepts a referendum and I suspect he might.
    Your view is so wide of the mark it is almost not worth replying to. That is clearly one scenario we can rule out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    Anorak said:

    1. Johnson can't seriously be trying to bounce the DUP. These are people who said (and I quote) "This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids".
    2. I'm in no way convinced the deal will pass without the DUP. It's an awfully long way from a 'sure thing'. Just ask May.
    3. It's quite possible that an extension will be requested and granted. Johnson has done his level best to absolve the Tories of blame.
    4. Therefore (and yes, this is a bit of a leap) this is about positioning for a GE where Johnson expects to get a proper majority and can vote the deal through with little fuss. The new batch of MPs will be ideologically purer, and the newbies will be malleable.
    5. He can afford to lose support to BXP running on a no deal ticket because (a) the BXP vote is inefficient, (b) the opposition is fractured and shows no signs of consolidating around a single party, at least while Corbyn stays as leader, and (c) the BXP will draw support from Labour as well as the Tories.

    Right now, I think he's going to get away with it. Sadly.

    either way he wins, if they vote deal down , then its election and he will walk it
This discussion has been closed.