Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
Or no further extensions. That kills No Deal stone dead.
That’s risky because the EU know there are some hardliners who want a no deal. I expect they’ll offer a short technical extension or a longer one for an election but will make it the final one .
The Brexit vote will break very strongly for Con as most Leavers understand Farage, with no MPs, can't deliver Brexit and only Boris can.
Disagree. Look what Farage achieved last time. Why shouldn't people think he can do the same again and, by agitating for no deal, force some kind of concession into the Cons GE manifesto. People (Boris, @isam, etc) underestimate Nigel's campaigning strengths at their peril.
Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
Or no further extensions. That kills No Deal stone dead.
That’s risky because the EU know there are some hardliners who want a no deal. I expect they’ll offer a short technical extension or a longer one for an election but will make it the final one .
I would agree as I do not see the EU agreeing for this to go to Summer 2020 and even then not be guaranteeed anything changes much in an indecisive referendum
As expected. A lot of those arguing against No Deal were actually arguing No Brexit. As soon as a Deal appears they pivot to oppose - safe in the knowledge that No Deal is off the table.
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
Someone needs to tell him what the Benn Act actually requires. A vote in favour of the deal in principle is not enough. The requirements are very specific. The complete legal text is needed, for one thing.
Is that ready yet?
If the EU lets it be known there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances, then the Benn Act is tomorrow's chip paper....
The Benn Act is still the law. Johnson would have to ask for an extension. The EU would grant it. Their bluff would be called. But the EU is not going to say there is going to be no further extension under any circumstances. Too many downside risks for them.
ND is no big problem for them.
They will say there can be an extension only if there's a GE or third ref. And that might be a "de facto" extension.
The Brexit vote will break very strongly for Con as most Leavers understand Farage, with no MPs, can't deliver Brexit and only Boris can.
Disagree. Look what Farage achieved last time. Why shouldn't people think he can do the same again and, by agitating for no deal, force some kind of concession into the Cons GE manifesto. People (Boris, @isam, etc) underestimate Nigel's campaigning strengths at their peril.
We'll see. I think Boris has seen the Brexit Party off.
The Brexit vote will break very strongly for Con as most Leavers understand Farage, with no MPs, can't deliver Brexit and only Boris can.
Disagree. Look what Farage achieved last time. Why shouldn't people think he can do the same again and, by agitating for no deal, force some kind of concession into the Cons GE manifesto. People (Boris, @isam, etc) underestimate Nigel's campaigning strengths at their peril.
Nigel is a great campaigner... But Leavers can see Brexit is now on a knife edge of never happening.
There is only one way it can can secured and that's to vote Con. So, perhaps with with a heavy heart that's what most Brexit voters will do.
That's cool. Some of us have predicted that. Aside from a few headbangers, no ordinary voter will care provided we are officially in or out, and it is better for Boris if dislocation is minimised.
As expected. A lot of those arguing against No Deal were actually arguing No Brexit. As soon as a Deal appears they pivot to oppose - safe in the knowledge that No Deal is off the table.
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
Not really. That certainly applies to the likes of me, but there are plenty of pro-Brexit anti-No Deal people out there. If you can't see that, you're blinkered.
As expected. A lot of those arguing against No Deal were actually arguing No Brexit. As soon as a Deal appears they pivot to oppose - safe in the knowledge that No Deal is off the table.
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
It was completely transparent from the off. The reaction to a deal being agreed this morning confirms what I (we by the sound of it) thought all along
Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
Or no further extensions. That kills No Deal stone dead.
That’s risky because the EU know there are some hardliners who want a no deal. I expect they’ll offer a short technical extension or a longer one for an election but will make it the final one .
There has been a law passed that effectively says we cannot No Deal. We certainly have hundreds of MPs lecturing us on the horrors of No Deal. Of course they have to vote for the deal agreed with the EU if the alternative is No Deal. Risk of the EU deal not passing if there is no further extension? Nil.
BBC thinks Boris will cancel the Saturday sitting unless the DUP get on board quickly.
The tabled amendment to the business motion suggests that the anti-Brexit MPs may have a cunning plan. Another reason not to have Saturday, if they don’t have to. And further copying from Mrs M’s playbook.
1) deal fails in parliament 2) extension forced for a general election 3) BJ wins a majority based on his deal 4) BJ pushes through his deal with the new parliament in opposition to the DUP.
what would it do to the unionist support for remaining as a part of the UK?
Brexit party position after deal passes 'we dont want a trade deal, we want higher prices and more bust businesse'
Project Fear.
Not really, we will have brexited, why on earth would anyone be against a trade deal?
Because a trade deal is likely to lead to compromises on Sovereignty. Yes, the UK can export these things, but only if they look like this, or are made this way, or you let us export these things to you, or you give us access to X visas. All those compromises that people have been encouraged to dislike. That's why trade deals take ages, or collapse totally- there's always something to dislike about them.
I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!
I'm very happy to support this new deal. There will be democratic consent and control for the new system on an ongoing basis as there always should have been. This is great news and congratulation Boris. DUP should stop while they're ahead now and accept this deal - they will get the best of both worlds, have complete and full access to both UK and EU and no doubt able to get a couple of billion in "support" from Brussels, Dublin and London. This system is no longer undemocratic.
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
As expected. A lot of those arguing against No Deal were actually arguing No Brexit. As soon as a Deal appears they pivot to oppose - safe in the knowledge that No Deal is off the table.
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
The Benn Law passed despite being opposed by the government, because both remainers and many leavers were and are appalled by the prospect of no deal.
You cannot say it was due to the MPs who want no Brexit at all.
There's certainly a lot of rumours swirling that the EU will only accept a deal or no deal at this stage. That would certainly cook Corbyn's goose
It is one thing to get the EU to renegotiate once, does anybody really think they will do it yet again....especially if those they are doing it with have made it clear they will campaign against even if they get a new new deal.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
Brexit party position after deal passes 'we dont want a trade deal, we want higher prices and more bust businesse'
Project Fear.
Not really, we will have brexited, why on earth would anyone be against a trade deal?
Because a trade deal is likely to lead to compromises on Sovereignty. Yes, the UK can export these things, but only if they look like this, or are made this way, or you let us export these things to you, or you give us access to X visas. All those compromises that people have been encouraged to dislike. That's why trade deals take ages, or collapse totally- there's always something to dislike about them.
Ok fair point but it's not really going to sway votes I'd estimate, once we are out UK concerns take over
I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!
I'm very happy to support this new deal. There will be democratic consent and control for the new system on an ongoing basis as there always should have been. This is great news and congratulation Boris. DUP should stop while they're ahead now and accept this deal - they will get the best of both worlds, have complete and full access to both UK and EU and no doubt able to get a couple of billion in "support" from Brussels, Dublin and London. This system is no longer undemocratic.
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
What was the bet? Happy to honour just would like to be reminded what we said.
Interesting that the DUP haven't just said flat no, given there's a legal text now. Holding out for more money?
I'm also curious if we might see Johnson request a short technical extension (ie a few weeks) today, to pre-empt the Benn Act and force the commons into a deal or no-deal choice.
I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!
I'm very happy to support this new deal. There will be democratic consent and control for the new system on an ongoing basis as there always should have been. This is great news and congratulation Boris. DUP should stop while they're ahead now and accept this deal - they will get the best of both worlds, have complete and full access to both UK and EU and no doubt able to get a couple of billion in "support" from Brussels, Dublin and London. This system is no longer undemocratic.
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
Cos that's the only way I can see this getting approved by Parliament.
Or no further extensions. That kills No Deal stone dead.
That’s risky because the EU know there are some hardliners who want a no deal. I expect they’ll offer a short technical extension or a longer one for an election but will make it the final one .
There has been a law passed that effectively says we cannot No Deal. We certainly have hundreds of MPs lecturing us on the horrors of No Deal. Of course they have to vote for the deal agreed with the EU if the alternative is No Deal. Risk of the EU deal not passing if there is no further extension? Nil.
Without an extension and with No Deal ruled out the only options are:-
Vote for the Deal or force things to allow someone to Revoke. Then go into the election on the basis of your actions the week before.
if we have a deal before the election Boris is safely home.
If we have revoked before the election I'm really not sure how well the Tories will do.
1) deal fails in parliament 2) extension forced for a general election 3) BJ wins a majority based on his deal 4) BJ pushes through his deal with the new parliament in opposition to the DUP.
what would it do to the unionist support for remaining as a part of the UK?
NHS to play as the biggest issue in a NI referendum - if necessary promoted by a new kind of autonomo-unionist party.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
1. Johnson can't seriously be trying to bounce the DUP. These are people who said (and I quote) "This is a battle of who blinks first, and we've cut off our eyelids". 2. I'm in no way convinced the deal will pass without the DUP. It's an awfully long way from a 'sure thing'. Just ask May. 3. It's quite possible that an extension will be requested and granted. Johnson has done his level best to absolve the Tories of blame. 4. Therefore (and yes, this is a bit of a leap) this is about positioning for a GE where Johnson expects to get a proper majority and can vote the deal through with little fuss. The new batch of MPs will be ideologically purer, and the newbies will be malleable. 5. He can afford to lose support to BXP running on a no deal ticket because (a) the BXP vote is inefficient, (b) the opposition is fractured and shows no signs of consolidating around a single party, at least while Corbyn stays as leader, and (c) the BXP will draw support from Labour as well as the Tories.
Right now, I think he's going to get away with it. Sadly.
Yes well we should gloss over that shouldn't we amidst this current wave of euphoria.
And will someone please humour me because I had thought that putting a border between GB and NI had been made specifically illegal via one of the votes in parliament but I can't for the life of me find it!
There's certainly a lot of rumours swirling that the EU will only accept a deal or no deal at this stage. That would certainly cook Corbyn's goose
It is one thing to get the EU to renegotiate once, does anybody really think they will do it yet again....especially if those they are doing it with have made it clear they will campaign against even if they get a new new deal.
And precisely what would Corbyn want to renegotiate now with the EU?
And when precisely will the EU tell him to fuck off?
True and it’s now a front stop with the NI stuck in it forever .
The DUP can’t support this as they’ll be under huge pressure in a general election from the UUP. And they can’t afford a no deal .
The ERG objection was that under the backstop we (more specifically NI) *might* be tied to EU customs arrangements forever.
Boris’s ingenious solution is to drop the backstop and concede that we (NI) will be tied to EU customs arrangements forever?
Let’s see how stupid the ERG really are.
That's not quite true, there is a concession where Stormont can vote to leave the EU customs arrangement. The fact that Stormont as a whole will never vote to leave that arrangement is something that the DUP know, hate but won't be able to fix.
Maybe I'm being stupid, I didn't get much sleep last night, but where am I going wrong?:
If the difference between this deal and May's deal is May's deal had a UK-wide backstop, whereas this one effectively leaves just NI in Customs Union+, why on earth would the DUP have any reason to support this deal and not May's deal? Isn't it just worse from their point of view?
Mind you, I never really understood why the DUP are pro-Brexit - what the hell kind of Brexit would they actually support? Have they ever proposed any kind?
As expected. A lot of those arguing against No Deal were actually arguing No Brexit. As soon as a Deal appears they pivot to oppose - safe in the knowledge that No Deal is off the table.
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
It was completely transparent from the off. The reaction to a deal being agreed this morning confirms what I (we by the sound of it) thought all along
Of course! But the key is to make it transparent to the public.
We'll soon find out who has and hasn't been honest for the last 3-years over the most contentious issue facing the country for generations.
Yes well we should gloss over that shouldn't we amidst this current wave of euphoria.
And will someone please humour me because I had thought that putting a border between GB and NI had been made specifically illegal via one of the votes in parliament but I can't for the life of me find it!
Isn't that Section 52 or something - from memory it's a JRM amendment.
I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!
I'm very happy to support this new deal. There will be democratic consent and control for the new system on an ongoing basis as there always should have been. This is great news and congratulation Boris. DUP should stop while they're ahead now and accept this deal - they will get the best of both worlds, have complete and full access to both UK and EU and no doubt able to get a couple of billion in "support" from Brussels, Dublin and London. This system is no longer undemocratic.
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
What was the bet? Happy to honour just would like to be reminded what we said.
There was more talk before but the terms were discussed here:
Philip_Thompson said: So I say when we leave we will do so without the backstop as currently formulated. If we leave without a deal or with a legally-binding change to the backstop [not the PD] then I win. If we do leave with the backstop as currently formulated OR revoke then you win.
Bet for straight cost of Conservative Party membership, as I will not be a member if we sign up to the backstop. I'm happy with that. Deal?
TOPPING: Hmm can we amend it to something that achieves the same as the backstop? Ie that administratively retains the backstop measures?
If that is a huge problem then I'm happy for the bet as you describe but I will retain bragging rights if what we end up with looks, smells, and feels like a backstop.
Philip_Thompson: For the terms of a bet I think that complicates matters and I'm not sure who could neutrally abritrate that matter, so unless someone neutral is happy to abritrate that if you're happy to go with the terms I'd prefer that. Realistically I think its moot since the EU have said they're refusing to renegotiate anyway I think any renegotiation that does occur would be meaningful.
Any change to PD is not meaningful.
TOPPING: Yes it is complicating. We will agree on that (your) bet and if either one of us feels it is not 100% appropriate to claim victory then so be it.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!
There's certainly a lot of rumours swirling that the EU will only accept a deal or no deal at this stage. That would certainly cook Corbyn's goose
It is one thing to get the EU to renegotiate once, does anybody really think they will do it yet again....especially if those they are doing it with have made it clear they will campaign against even if they get a new new deal.
And precisely what would Corbyn want to renegotiate now with the EU?
And when precisely will the EU tell him to fuck off?
That is what pb Tories claimed when Theresa May was PM. It turns out negotiations can be reopened. Who knew?
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!
Yep - Ireland has got exactly what it wanted from all this. This is an absolute triumph for Varadker.
Because of the fig leaf that after four years, the arrangement can be dropped. But by removing the DUP veto and placing the issue in the hands of a majority Stormont vote (assuming it has resumed by then!) everyone knows that a vote to cease the arrangement is in practice very unlikely.
I am absolutely delighted that there is a new deal that has gotten rid of the undemocratic backstop! Delighted!
I'm very happy to support this
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
What was the bet? Happy to honour just would like to be reminded what we said.
There was more talk before but the terms were discussed here:
Philip_Thompson said: So I say when we leave we will do so without the backstop as currently formulated. If we leave without a deal or with a legally-binding change to the backstop [not the PD] then I win. If we do leave with the backstop as currently formulated OR revoke then you win.
Bet for straight cost of Conservative Party membership, as I will not be a member if we sign up to the backstop. I'm happy with that. Deal?
TOPPING: Hmm can we amend it to something that achieves the same as the backstop? Ie that administratively retains the backstop measures?
If that is a huge problem then I'm happy for the bet as you describe but I will retain bragging rights if what we end up with looks, smells, and feels like a backstop.
Philip_Thompson: For the terms of a bet I think that complicates matters and I'm not sure who could neutrally abritrate that matter, so unless someone neutral is happy to abritrate that if you're happy to go with the terms I'd prefer that. Realistically I think its moot since the EU have said they're refusing to renegotiate anyway I think any renegotiation that does occur would be meaningful.
Any change to PD is not meaningful.
TOPPING: Yes it is complicating. We will agree on that (your) bet and if either one of us feels it is not 100% appropriate to claim victory then so be it.
Thanks. There is definitely a mechanism for NI to leave "the EU" (for that is what this current deal means) if it wants and hence staying is not the default position which it was with the backstop and hence I am happy that the backstop has been materially amended. Hence you win the bet.
My prediction: this is exactly what will come out of the Council today.
FWIW I predict it won't. The EU won't like interfering in the murky world of British politics, which is what that would do. (Hell, I find Hungarian politics more predictable than ours at the moment.)
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!
Correct - it will be easier for NI to sell to the RoI and the rest of Europe than into Great Britain.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
The practical implications of the proposal are that NI won’t depart from EU arrangements and therefore the UK is most unlikely to. As with Brexit more generally, the freedoms we gain are largely theoretically and of no practical benefit.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
It does what the RoI and the EU does. Whatever that is. Leo must be dancing a jig it is his dream outcome. There can no longer be the creative ambiguity of the island of Ireland and NI/RoI. NI is now out!
Yep - Ireland has got exactly what it wanted from all this. This is an absolute triumph for Varadker.
And a triumph for Boris. Thats what negotiation is all about.
Maybe I'm being stupid, I didn't get much sleep last night, but where am I going wrong?:
If the difference between this deal and May's deal is May's deal had a UK-wide backstop, whereas this one effectively leaves just NI in Customs Union+, why on earth would the DUP have any reason to support this deal and not May's deal? Isn't it just worse from their point of view?
Mind you, I never really understood why the DUP are pro-Brexit - what the hell kind of Brexit would they actually support? Have they ever proposed any kind?
Your logic is absolutely impeccable apart from one mistake: you're assuming that the DUP's position is rational.
I remember when all the pundits / EU said time and time again the WA / backstop was not up for renegotiation...ever.
From the Graun:
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
So how does NI sell into the UK when we vary the rules.
Comments
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1184781293176938497
I think the public as a whole has wised up to this now. Get Brexit Done will resonate and will become equally as powerful as Take Back Control. Looking forward to the vote now and to find out who has been telling porkies the whole time.
They will say there can be an extension only if there's a GE or third ref. And that might be a "de facto" extension.
There is only one way it can can secured and that's to vote Con. So, perhaps with with a heavy heart that's what most Brexit voters will do.
1) deal fails in parliament
2) extension forced for a general election
3) BJ wins a majority based on his deal
4) BJ pushes through his deal with the new parliament in opposition to the DUP.
what would it do to the unionist support for remaining as a part of the UK?
I'm very happy to support this new deal. There will be democratic consent and control for the new system on an ongoing basis as there always should have been. This is great news and congratulation Boris. DUP should stop while they're ahead now and accept this deal - they will get the best of both worlds, have complete and full access to both UK and EU and no doubt able to get a couple of billion in "support" from Brussels, Dublin and London. This system is no longer undemocratic.
Well done everyone!
PS I placed two bets here with people that there would be legally-binding changes to the WDA. I can't remember who the original bet was with, and then one with @TOPPING at the straight price of Tory Party Membership. I assume that bet is won now as there is a new deal with quite clearly legally-binding changes in this new deal compared to the old WDA?
So your statement makes no sense.
The DUP can’t support this as they’ll be under huge pressure in a general election from the UUP. And they can’t afford a no deal .
You cannot say it was due to the MPs who want no Brexit at all.
"On VAT, Barnier says an agreement was reached overnight. There was an issue with the need for consistency on VAT rates. A mechanism to ensure this was agreed. The EU system would apply in Northern Ireland. "
I'm also curious if we might see Johnson request a short technical extension (ie a few weeks) today, to pre-empt the Benn Act and force the commons into a deal or no-deal choice.
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1184773060131512320
Vote for the Deal or force things to allow someone to Revoke.
Then go into the election on the basis of your actions the week before.
if we have a deal before the election Boris is safely home.
If we have revoked before the election I'm really not sure how well the Tories will do.
[Edit: I had to Google that. I thought it was some sort of sarcasm related to the Master Wargamer]
Boris’s ingenious solution is to drop the backstop and concede that we (NI) will be tied to EU customs arrangements forever?
Let’s see how stupid the ERG really are.
2. I'm in no way convinced the deal will pass without the DUP. It's an awfully long way from a 'sure thing'. Just ask May.
3. It's quite possible that an extension will be requested and granted. Johnson has done his level best to absolve the Tories of blame.
4. Therefore (and yes, this is a bit of a leap) this is about positioning for a GE where Johnson expects to get a proper majority and can vote the deal through with little fuss. The new batch of MPs will be ideologically purer, and the newbies will be malleable.
5. He can afford to lose support to BXP running on a no deal ticket because (a) the BXP vote is inefficient, (b) the opposition is fractured and shows no signs of consolidating around a single party, at least while Corbyn stays as leader, and (c) the BXP will draw support from Labour as well as the Tories.
Right now, I think he's going to get away with it. Sadly.
And will someone please humour me because I had thought that putting a border between GB and NI had been made specifically illegal via one of the votes in parliament but I can't for the life of me find it!
And when precisely will the EU tell him to fuck off?
https://twitter.com/jnpowell1/status/1184776605308276736
If the difference between this deal and May's deal is May's deal had a UK-wide backstop, whereas this one effectively leaves just NI in Customs Union+, why on earth would the DUP have any reason to support this deal and not May's deal? Isn't it just worse from their point of view?
Mind you, I never really understood why the DUP are pro-Brexit - what the hell kind of Brexit would they actually support? Have they ever proposed any kind?
We'll soon find out who has and hasn't been honest for the last 3-years over the most contentious issue facing the country for generations.
Ha!
There was more talk before but the terms were discussed here:
Philip_Thompson said: So I say when we leave we will do so without the backstop as currently formulated. If we leave without a deal or with a legally-binding change to the backstop [not the PD] then I win.
If we do leave with the backstop as currently formulated OR revoke then you win.
Bet for straight cost of Conservative Party membership, as I will not be a member if we sign up to the backstop. I'm happy with that. Deal?
TOPPING: Hmm can we amend it to something that achieves the same as the backstop? Ie that administratively retains the backstop measures?
If that is a huge problem then I'm happy for the bet as you describe but I will retain bragging rights if what we end up with looks, smells, and feels like a backstop.
Philip_Thompson: For the terms of a bet I think that complicates matters and I'm not sure who could neutrally abritrate that matter, so unless someone neutral is happy to abritrate that if you're happy to go with the terms I'd prefer that. Realistically I think its moot since the EU have said they're refusing to renegotiate anyway I think any renegotiation that does occur would be meaningful.
Any change to PD is not meaningful.
TOPPING: Yes it is complicating. We will agree on that (your) bet and if either one of us feels it is not 100% appropriate to claim victory then so be it.
So not sure why some commentators think this will still keep Labour votes , the latter isn’t legally binding .
Waiting on markets on the MV, especially the spreadbetting ones. I fancy 300-305 votes.
The thing all Conservatives agreed was totally unnaceptable.
Everybody happy?
Make of that what you will
Whilst some want this over with I think they’re more likely to offer either a technical extension or a longer one but make it final .