I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
In fairness, it is true for the DUP. They’ve always been very open about it.
So the negotiations are now about the size of the bribe ?
I don't get the DUP point. Johnson has a majority of -45, so if the DUP are on board and nobody else, he loses. Or throw Arlene and the Bigots into Lough Neagh and propose something they hate and everyone else hates and he loses.
Or, just maybe, Lough the DUP and find something that others may be prepared to compromise on.
That would make total sense, but the problem is that anything that would attract significant support from the opposition parties would lose support from the right, which imperils both his election plan and his job as Tory leader.
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
In fairness, it is true for the DUP. They’ve always been very open about it.
So the negotiations are now about the size of the bribe ?
Trouble for the DUP is if the tories win an election they dont get an extra incentive so theyd need to secure the amount long term.
Interesting but it’s not asking the question on a second vote . Basically it’s asking if the ref result should be honoured . I think Brexit sucks but think the UK needs to leave now in an orderly way with a deal .
If there was a second vote I’d vote Remain though .
I should imagine odds on a second referendum are quite long now.
"Gandhi 'was racist and planned statue of him outside Manchester Cathedral must be scrapped due to his complicity in British Empire's actions in Africa', demand city students"
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
In fairness, it is true for the DUP. They’ve always been very open about it.
So the negotiations are now about the size of the bribe ?
Trouble for the DUP is if the tories win an election they dont get an extra incentive so theyd need to secure the amount long term.
Indeed - which is why it's taking so long to wrap up a deal ?
Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.
And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.
Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
It's not a lazy suggestion. The likely imposition of a Brexit settlement against the wishes of large majorities in both NI and Scotland is part of that mindset.
Imposition of a brexit settlement was not the point made, the point made was that they should be let go, without a care if they want to be let go.
When people reach for the imperial comparisons, either as an attack in some nostalgic approval, it's a fair bet it is very lazy indeed. Like WW2 analogies in that regard, or references to Thatcher, again pro or anti.
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
Its almost as if, if we could just get Brexit out of the way, there is a moderate centre right agenda that could be good for growth waiting to be picked up and implemented, isn't it?
Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.
And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.
Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
It's not a lazy suggestion. The likely imposition of a Brexit settlement against the wishes of large majorities in both NI and Scotland is part of that mindset.
Imposition of a brexit settlement was not the point made, the point made was that they should be let go, without a care if they want to be let go.
Well, in the case of NI, May's settlement was definitely a move in that direction - and was supported by about two thirds of the electorate.
So after rejecting May’s deal, the DUP are going to accept one that is substantially worse for NI’s position in the Union? Seems a bit unlikely. Will May even back a deal with a border in the Irish Sea?
Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.
And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.
Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
It's not a lazy suggestion. The likely imposition of a Brexit settlement against the wishes of large majorities in both NI and Scotland is part of that mindset.
Imposition of a brexit settlement was not the point made, the point made was that they should be let go, without a care if they want to be let go.
Well, in the case of NI, May's settlement was definitely a move in that direction - and was supported by about two thirds of the electorate.
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.
And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.
Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
It's not a lazy suggestion. The likely imposition of a Brexit settlement against the wishes of large majorities in both NI and Scotland is part of that mindset.
Imposition of a brexit settlement was not the point made, the point made was that they should be let go, without a care if they want to be let go.
Well, in the case of NI, May's settlement was definitely a move in that direction - and was supported by about two thirds of the electorate.
I've generally only read about most of the candidates, I didn't know Tulsi Gabbard was that young. Big range of ages with her and the mayor and the oldies. But sounds like no chance unless suddenly it becomes a beauty pageant.
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Am I right in remembering that Sir Keith Joseph deleted that part from his edition of Wealth of Nations?
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
But as a fitting summation of Remainer activity for the past three and a half years.....
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
In fairness it's not totally pointless- they probably hope it causes the Mail to be outraged or something.
As this deal - if one is produced at all - is proffered later then it's inherent contradictions and pleases nobody nature surely will force lengthy scrutiny of the deal on both sides of the channel.
Johnson will have to extend. And then go out campaigning for a deal worse than the previous one that the most ardent Brexit supporters consider to be a betrayal.
Interesting but it’s not asking the question on a second vote . Basically it’s asking if the ref result should be honoured . I think Brexit sucks but think the UK needs to leave now in an orderly way with a deal .
If there was a second vote I’d vote Remain though .
Everyone's Brexit preference is the same: for the rest of the country to come to its senses at last and agree with me.
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
Its almost as if, if we could just get Brexit out of the way, there is a moderate centre right agenda that could be good for growth waiting to be picked up and implemented, isn't it?
It's that moderate centre right thing that is the underlying cause of Brexit and other Populist movements.
I’ve asked Betfair if they can add new months for the monthly general election market but they tell me they only do that at year ends, so not to get my hopes up.
New month of GE market now opened with months in 2020.
NB. Has to be a new market so "2020 or later" can be declared winner on current market (if necessary!)
"Gandhi 'was racist and planned statue of him outside Manchester Cathedral must be scrapped due to his complicity in British Empire's actions in Africa', demand city students"
I dont know why they dont take up my suggestion of leaving statues up/allowing them but including a plaque saying 'this person did great things but theres a good chance given the time period that they were also racist or believed something else terrible'. Problem solved
I've generally only read about most of the candidates, I didn't know Tulsi Gabbard was that young. Big range of ages with her and the mayor and the oldies. But sounds like no chance unless suddenly it becomes a beauty pageant.
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
In fairness it's not totally pointless- they probably hope it causes the Mail to be outraged or something.
"Gandhi 'was racist and planned statue of him outside Manchester Cathedral must be scrapped due to his complicity in British Empire's actions in Africa', demand city students"
I’ve asked Betfair if they can add new months for the monthly general election market but they tell me they only do that at year ends, so not to get my hopes up.
New month of GE market now opened with months in 2020.
NB. Has to be a new market so "2020 or later" can be declared winner on current market (if necessary!)
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Am I right in remembering that Sir Keith Joseph deleted that part from his edition of Wealth of Nations?
Not heard that. Seems unlikely. He was a genuine intellectual and well able to deal with different ideas.
So after rejecting May’s deal, the DUP are going to accept one that is substantially worse for NI’s position in the Union? Seems a bit unlikely. Will May even back a deal with a border in the Irish Sea?
I'm wondering about a repeat of Chequers.
Will Johnson stand by his deal while watching others gain the plaudits for opposing it?
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
There was a Tory MP on Sky this morning, I think Mercer who was asked if we would leave on 31/10. He said he believed Johnson would have the UK out by that date because that’s what he promised and he has to deliver on his promise. Make of that what you will.
Bernie Sanders - 7/10. While I'm not a great fan of the content, he was articulate and had a lot of energy.
Kamala Harris - 3/10. Was she at the debate? I didn't notice her.
Tulsi Gabbard - 4/10. Sensible but stilted. Lacked any kind of connection with the audience.
Andrew Yang - 6/10. Better than I expected. Still going nowhere.
Tom Steyer - 4/10. Had some passion. But ultimately, who is he? And why is he still in the race?
Beto O'Rourke - 4/10. I had high hopes for Beto. Those hopes were dashed. He needs to quit the race.
Elizabeth Warren - 6/10. She started strong. But her schtick got irritating. She was the focus of a lot of attacks, so she spoke a lot.
Pete Buttigieg - 7.5/10. He was great on foreign policy and his service. His healthcare plan looks sensible. He talks with enormous sincerity.
Joe Biden - 5/10. He really is sleepy Joe. "I want to abolish capital gains tax. I mean I want to increase capital gains tax." "And thirdly... I mean secondly... No, thirdly." When he's on point he's persuasive, but it's fair to say he's not good on his feet.
Cory Booker - 6.5/10. You know, I really liked Cory tonight. But he's probably not going anywhere.
Julian Castro - 5/10. Anonymous except for one good zinger: the Trump adminstration's policy is locking up children in cages while letting ISIS fighters go free.
Amy Klobucher. 5/10. She speaks a lot of sense. But has no gravitas and a weird smirk.
Did I miss anyone?
If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?
Before tonight, I'd have said Tulsi Gabbard. But she bombed.
So I'd go for Midwestern moderate who is not showing signs of mental degradation.
Interesting but it’s not asking the question on a second vote . Basically it’s asking if the ref result should be honoured . I think Brexit sucks but think the UK needs to leave now in an orderly way with a deal .
If there was a second vote I’d vote Remain though .
Everyone's Brexit preference is the same: for the rest of the country to come to its senses at last and agree with me.
I dont think that is fair. My own preference is anything but no deal, for others it might be any type of leave. Neither of those views, both of which are pretty common, are demanding others specifically agree with them. A wide range of options satisfies each of those prefences.
In the search for a workable Brexit solution, it is the fault of our leaders looking for a very narrow range of options, especially both PMs.
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
"Gandhi 'was racist and planned statue of him outside Manchester Cathedral must be scrapped due to his complicity in British Empire's actions in Africa', demand city students"
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
Its almost as if, if we could just get Brexit out of the way, there is a moderate centre right agenda that could be good for growth waiting to be picked up and implemented, isn't it?
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
"Gandhi 'was racist and planned statue of him outside Manchester Cathedral must be scrapped due to his complicity in British Empire's actions in Africa', demand city students"
If Johnson can bring a 'Deal' to parliament that is supported by almost all Cons and the DUP, I think he is looking good.
If it passes, political triumph, big kudos, much national relief, and he wins a GE off the back of that.
And if it does NOT pass, the rejection will be seen to be down to the various opposition parties. Which gives him a different - but still good - platform for a GE.
I backed the risible charlatan to be PM beyond 2022 at quite a big price a few weeks ago and as of right now I'm glad I did.
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
Quite so. I think they're on board, and so are the ERG, mostly. Probably will squeak home.
On topic, I remain a Buttisceptic - too much of a nice intellectual's choice. Doing well in Iowa is good, but not as decisive as all that, and he lacks a nationwide core vote; in particular, he doesn't do especially well against Trump.
So after rejecting May’s deal, the DUP are going to accept one that is substantially worse for NI’s position in the Union? Seems a bit unlikely. Will May even back a deal with a border in the Irish Sea?
I'm wondering about a repeat of Chequers.
Will Johnson stand by his deal while watching others gain the plaudits for opposing it?
When the facts change......
Anyway, what appears to be Johnson's prime motivation?
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
Quite so. I think they're on board, and so are the ERG, mostly. Probably will squeak home.
On topic, I remain a Buttisceptic - too much of a nice intellectual's choice. Doing well in Iowa is good, but not as decisive as all that, and he lacks a nationwide core vote; in particular, he doesn't do especially well against Trump.
15/1 is (was) a great price, and will be eminently layable at a good profit should he do well in Iowa.
As for the odds against Trump, they are of fairly limited meaning this early in the game.
AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
Its almost as if, if we could just get Brexit out of the way, there is a moderate centre right agenda that could be good for growth waiting to be picked up and implemented, isn't it?
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
the failures of conservatism to address business issues pre date the referendum.
Off topic but in the vain hope we can talk about something other than whatever gruel is being prepared for the DUP and ERG to sample, some comment on the Queen's Speech:
As usual with Johnson, very long on generalities and very short on anything approaching specifics. A word like "devolution" can mean anything to anyone. Is Boris advocating regional assemblies or simply giving more central Government largesse (no doubt with strings attached) to Councils?
Then of course there's the small matter of reforming adult social care which is once again dressed up in aspirations but is devoid of real content. In my view, that is going to be the defining policy issue of post-EU Britain. How are we going to treat older people not just in terms of care but in more general terms? I see a growing trend away from treating them as a separate social group and more to re-integrating them within working society but end of life or palliative care remains one of those very difficult areas for public debate and discussion which I suspect Johnson will go nowhere near.
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
As usual, you are entirely wrong. Many of the pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members (or in some cases, returnees after a fling with their UKIP mistress before seeing sense and returning to the bosom of their true family). They are often involved in business - in small and medium sized businesses. They fully understand business. And they understand that big business shafts them. They see a big business thhat expects everything on its terms, handed to it on a plate, and propped up by Govt. support when they fuck up. THAT is what provokes a "fuck (big) business" attitude.
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
Off topic but in the vain hope we can talk about something other than whatever gruel is being prepared for the DUP and ERG to sample, some comment on the Queen's Speech:
As usual with Johnson, very long on generalities and very short on anything approaching specifics. A word like "devolution" can mean anything to anyone. Is Boris advocating regional assemblies or simply giving more central Government largesse (no doubt with strings attached) to Councils?
Then of course there's the small matter of reforming adult social care which is once again dressed up in aspirations but is devoid of real content. In my view, that is going to be the defining policy issue of post-EU Britain. How are we going to treat older people not just in terms of care but in more general terms? I see a growing trend away from treating them as a separate social group and more to re-integrating them within working society but end of life or palliative care remains one of those very difficult areas for public debate and discussion which I suspect Johnson will go nowhere near.
I think the reality is that whoever wins the next working majority will probably have promised “free” social care isn’t it? Sensible insurance based models aren’t going to get votes, and the barest beginnings of the sorts of sensible reforms to get where you suggest (NI for working pensioners, for example) are going to be electoral kryptonite. It’s depressing but I think pensioners are going to start to cost even more, and get even more comfy. When can I retire?
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
As usual, you are entirely wrong. Many of the pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members (or in some cases, returnees after a fling with their UKIP mistress before seeing sense and returning to the bosom of their true family). They are often involved in business - in small and medium sized businesses. They fully understand business. And they understand that big business shafts them. They see a big business thhat expects everything on its terms, handed to it on a plate, and propped up by Govt. support when they fuck up. THAT is what provokes a "fuck (big) business" attitude.
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
You of course have no idea whether or how many pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members or ex-Kippers.
I would say that 82% of Cons members that I see would be incapable of running an ice-cream stall in a heatwave. Those that haven't left their business days long behind them.
Those noble people involved in small- and medium-sized business are far too busy being involved in their small- and medium-sized businesses to have the time to fanny around at political party meetings, still less head out on cold, windy nights shoving Party literature through letterboxes.
But as a vision that you have pulled out of your arse, yours is certainly a compelling one.
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
We will see. I suspect that the DUP sign-off will be accompanied by a hell of a lot of cash!
You can bet on it , they are worse than the Lib Dems.
We used to hear about BINO or Brexit in Name Only. This is Deal in Name Only. It gets us out Oct 31st -ish and a one year transition. It does absolutely nothing for mainland UK, which is why the ERG love it. It utterly screws the DUP tendency in NI. Although I don't have a lot of sympathy for them as a party, I have a feeling we're storing up problems.
Yes. PB is at the point whereby we have raging arguments with each other about something that has yet to be published and no one knows the details about.
I suppose it is the old buy on rumour sell on fact dynamic.
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
As usual, you are entirely wrong. Many of the pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members (or in some cases, returnees after a fling with their UKIP mistress before seeing sense and returning to the bosom of their true family). They are often involved in business - in small and medium sized businesses. They fully understand business. And they understand that big business shafts them. They see a big business thhat expects everything on its terms, handed to it on a plate, and propped up by Govt. support when they fuck up. THAT is what provokes a "fuck (big) business" attitude.
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
That's quite an interesting insight, so thank you. It slightly mirrors the way that some people feel about wealth. Replace "small business" with "wage earner" and "big business" with "high net worth individuals". The wealth one is one I've always sympathised with, but I haven't thought much about small businesses' attitudes towards big businesses, so thanks for giving me something to chew over.
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
As usual, you are entirely wrong. Many of the pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members (or in some cases, returnees after a fling with their UKIP mistress before seeing sense and returning to the bosom of their true family). They are often involved in business - in small and medium sized businesses. They fully understand business. And they understand that big business shafts them. They see a big business thhat expects everything on its terms, handed to it on a plate, and propped up by Govt. support when they fuck up. THAT is what provokes a "fuck (big) business" attitude.
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
You of course have no idea whether or how many pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members or ex-Kippers.
I would say that 82% of Cons members that I see would be incapable of running an ice-cream stall in a heatwave. Those that haven't left their business days long behind them.
Those noble people involved in small- and medium-sized business are far too busy being involved in their small- and medium-sized businesses to have the time to fanny around at political party meetings, still less head out on cold, windy nights shoving Party literature through letterboxes.
But as a vision that you have pulled out of your arse, yours is certainly a compelling one.
The only people you have any understanding of in the Tory party are those very few ex-military bores, who enjoy regaling others with how many of johnny foreigner they have done for.....
Meanwhile, in Canada, just a few days left before the GE on 21/10.
Last night's Angus Reid poll put the Conservatives four points ahead but with both main parties losing ground to the NDP which is closing in on 20% - the numbers were CON 33%, LIB 29%, NDP 19%. This is very close to the IPSOS numbers from Monday which were 32-30-20.
The last Quebec poll confirms BQ continuing to surge and are on 31%, just two points behind the Liberals. The Conservatives and NDP remain in the doldrums and the question is with BQ up 12 from 2015 and NDP down 15 is how many gains will BQ make - perhaps as many as twenty.
The NDP national numbers are comparable to 2015 but they are well down in Quebec so where is the consequential improvement - British Columbia perhaps?
The Conservatives are doing no better in percentage terms than 2015 but the 3-4% swing from Trudeau will give Scheer more seats than the 99 won by Harper last time but nowhere near a majority. I do think the Conservatives could just be the largest party in terms of votes and seats but it may be Trudeau will be able to survive in power with BQ and NDP support.
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
We will see. I suspect that the DUP sign-off will be accompanied by a hell of a lot of cash!
You can bet on it , they are worse than the Lib Dems.
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
VONC'd so far... deselection yet to occur (not that I'm arguing it's not gonna happen!)
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
Yes, but the problem is that the party that traditionally and pragmatically held that position for many years has been taken over by zealots and swiveleyed nutters from the far right who have about as much understanding of business as I do of brain surgery
As usual, you are entirely wrong. Many of the pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members (or in some cases, returnees after a fling with their UKIP mistress before seeing sense and returning to the bosom of their true family). They are often involved in business - in small and medium sized businesses. They fully understand business. And they understand that big business shafts them. They see a big business thhat expects everything on its terms, handed to it on a plate, and propped up by Govt. support when they fuck up. THAT is what provokes a "fuck (big) business" attitude.
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
You of course have no idea whether or how many pro-Brexit members of the party are long-standing members or ex-Kippers.
I would say that 82% of Cons members that I see would be incapable of running an ice-cream stall in a heatwave. Those that haven't left their business days long behind them.
Those noble people involved in small- and medium-sized business are far too busy being involved in their small- and medium-sized businesses to have the time to fanny around at political party meetings, still less head out on cold, windy nights shoving Party literature through letterboxes.
But as a vision that you have pulled out of your arse, yours is certainly a compelling one.
The only people you have any understanding of in the Tory party are those very few ex-military bores, who enjoy regaling others with how many of johnny foreigner they have done for.....
Many, many days and nights canvassing for in no particular order Justine Greening (I know), Shaun Bailey, Boris Johnson for mayor x 2 (I KNOW!), Angie Bray, Joy Morrissey, Greg Hands, Chris Philp, Joanne Cash and others I can't remember plus plenty of constituency stuff. And the only ex-military person I bumped into (who I knew; there could have been others) was Theresa May's erstwhile political advisor for the 2017 election (IIIII KNOWWWWW!)
Another monumentally wrong insight from you. Not hugely surprising, that said.
Adam Boulton just called Extinction Rebellion 'middle class berks' and many will agree with him
Thomas Adam Babington Boulton, son of pioneering anaesthetist Dr Thomas Babington Boulton OBE, studied at Christ Church, Oxford... and he comes from Berkshire
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
I think the reality is that whoever wins the next working majority will probably have promised “free” social care isn’t it? Sensible insurance based models aren’t going to get votes, and the barest beginnings of the sorts of sensible reforms to get where you suggest (NI for working pensioners, for example) are going to be electoral kryptonite. It’s depressing but I think pensioners are going to start to cost even more, and get even more comfy. When can I retire? Sigh... Please tell me I’m wrong.
Yes, this is the irony. The sheer voting power of the elderly gives them the whip hand. I'm sure as @HYUFD will tell us the Conservatives have dominated the 65+ age group since 2001 (I think). That of course means no Party reliant on a core vote is going to suggest policies aimed at antagonising that core vote (ditto for Labour and the Unions of course) unless they are prepared to argue the case and accept the consequences of losing the argument.
We cannot go on as we are and I think NI for working pensioners is sellable as a policy for all the howls of outrage it will provoke. Care is a much harder question to resolve and we often forget the numbers requiring care are a small proportion of the elderly population and it's not just about dementia care - it also means helping those families who take on the care of elderly relatives.
I think Warren is now the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, with Buttigieg her closest rival in Iowa, Sanders in New Hampshire and Biden in South Carolina.
Buttigieg also scored some hits on Warren in the debate last night on how she will have to raise taxes for her proposed Medicare for all plan, something Sanders has admitted he will have to do but not yet her. If she did become nominee be assured the Trump campaign would also run ads hitting her on taxes
We used to hear about BINO or Brexit in Name Only. This is Deal in Name Only. It gets us out Oct 31st -ish and a one year transition. It does absolutely nothing for mainland UK, which is why the ERG love it. It utterly screws the DUP tendency in NI. Although I don't have a lot of sympathy for them as a party, I have a feeling we're storing up problems.
I was wondering that. It seems to be the original deal which was unacceptable and worse than May’s deal - also unacceptable. So we appear to have gone backwards.
Assuming that (a) a deal is reached and (b) it is as reported.
And if the PD takes out all the bits Labour likes why should they vote for it?
All a bit of a clusterfuck really.
Meanwhile Syria is a mess, again, and Barcelona burns.
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
I think Warren is now the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, with Buttigieg her closest rival in Iowa, Sanders in New Hampshire and Biden in South Carolina.
Buttigieg also scored some hits on Warren in the debate last night on how she will have to raise taxes for her proposed Medicare for all plan, something Sanders has admitted he will have to do but not yet her. If she did become nominee be assured the Trump campaign would also run ads hitting her on taxes
Meanwhile, in Canada, just a few days left before the GE on 21/10.
Last night's Angus Reid poll put the Conservatives four points ahead but with both main parties losing ground to the NDP which is closing in on 20% - the numbers were CON 33%, LIB 29%, NDP 19%. This is very close to the IPSOS numbers from Monday which were 32-30-20.
The last Quebec poll confirms BQ continuing to surge and are on 31%, just two points behind the Liberals. The Conservatives and NDP remain in the doldrums and the question is with BQ up 12 from 2015 and NDP down 15 is how many gains will BQ make - perhaps as many as twenty.
The NDP national numbers are comparable to 2015 but they are well down in Quebec so where is the consequential improvement - British Columbia perhaps?
The Conservatives are doing no better in percentage terms than 2015 but the 3-4% swing from Trudeau will give Scheer more seats than the 99 won by Harper last time but nowhere near a majority. I do think the Conservatives could just be the largest party in terms of votes and seats but it may be Trudeau will be able to survive in power with BQ and NDP support.
Canadians like to make their minds up in the last four or five days before polling and are not averse to wildly zig-zagging their vote.
This year, it’s the BQ surging and NDP ticking up (a bit). That will hurt the Liberals as they’ll lose seats in Quebec (the Tories won’t be too badly affected there) and the NDP will hurt their vote share in Ontario, thereby helping the Tories win a few more seats there.
Meanwhile, in Canada, just a few days left before the GE on 21/10.
Last night's Angus Reid poll put the Conservatives four points ahead but with both main parties losing ground to the NDP which is closing in on 20% - the numbers were CON 33%, LIB 29%, NDP 19%. This is very close to the IPSOS numbers from Monday which were 32-30-20.
The last Quebec poll confirms BQ continuing to surge and are on 31%, just two points behind the Liberals. The Conservatives and NDP remain in the doldrums and the question is with BQ up 12 from 2015 and NDP down 15 is how many gains will BQ make - perhaps as many as twenty.
The NDP national numbers are comparable to 2015 but they are well down in Quebec so where is the consequential improvement - British Columbia perhaps?
The Conservatives are doing no better in percentage terms than 2015 but the 3-4% swing from Trudeau will give Scheer more seats than the 99 won by Harper last time but nowhere near a majority. I do think the Conservatives could just be the largest party in terms of votes and seats but it may be Trudeau will be able to survive in power with BQ and NDP support.
Yes neck and neck between the Tories and Liberals for most seats but given the NDP have confirmed they will form a coalition with the Liberals if they hold the balance of power as most likely would the Greens, the Tories need to do a deal with the BQ to have any hope of forming a government and that is a big ask.
The Tories only likely coalition partners, the People's Party of Canada, are just polling 3% at most.
Latest Nanos is Liberals 32%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 19% but Trudeau still narrowly leads as preferred PM
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
You just haven't got this whole pointless gesture thing, have you?
Grieve and co have played a much more astute game than Cummings.
Grieve has had it easy, with 400 MPs quietly (or otherwise) urging him on - and determinedly blocking off any route to the voters.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
Antoinette Sandbach has been overwhelmingly deselected by her consituency in her safe seat of Eddisbury
I think the reality is that whoever wins the next working majority will probably have promised “free” social care isn’t it? Sensible insurance based models aren’t going to get votes, and the barest beginnings of the sorts of sensible reforms to get where you suggest (NI for working pensioners, for example) are going to be electoral kryptonite. It’s depressing but I think pensioners are going to start to cost even more, and get even more comfy. When can I retire? Sigh... Please tell me I’m wrong.
Yes, this is the irony. The sheer voting power of the elderly gives them the whip hand. I'm sure as @HYUFD will tell us the Conservatives have dominated the 65+ age group since 2001 (I think). That of course means no Party reliant on a core vote is going to suggest policies aimed at antagonising that core vote (ditto for Labour and the Unions of course) unless they are prepared to argue the case and accept the consequences of losing the argument.
We cannot go on as we are and I think NI for working pensioners is sellable as a policy for all the howls of outrage it will provoke. Care is a much harder question to resolve and we often forget the numbers requiring care are a small proportion of the elderly population and it's not just about dementia care - it also means helping those families who take on the care of elderly relatives.
You have to say 2010-2013 was the best chance to make some changes, and it didn’t happen. And we’re now left with one hell of a demographic risk. I guess the best that can be hoped for is a party coming to power with a good majority, having mostly managed to stay silent on pensioner perks, and relying on young folks for its votes. So a Labour/LibDem coalition hunting for savings?
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7576099/University-Manchester-students-say-statue-Gandhi-scrapped.html
When people reach for the imperial comparisons, either as an attack in some nostalgic approval, it's a fair bet it is very lazy indeed. Like WW2 analogies in that regard, or references to Thatcher, again pro or anti.
Johnson will have to extend. And then go out campaigning for a deal worse than the previous one that the most ardent Brexit supporters consider to be a betrayal.
Nailed on Tory landslide obviously
NB. Has to be a new market so "2020 or later" can be declared winner on current market (if necessary!)
Will Johnson stand by his deal while watching others gain the plaudits for opposing it?
In the search for a workable Brexit solution, it is the fault of our leaders looking for a very narrow range of options, especially both PMs.
Whether that plays well long term has yet to be seen. If we still end up with Brexit and a House shorn of its Europhile MPs, some may think Cummings has had the last laugh.....
If it passes, political triumph, big kudos, much national relief, and he wins a GE off the back of that.
And if it does NOT pass, the rejection will be seen to be down to the various opposition parties. Which gives him a different - but still good - platform for a GE.
I backed the risible charlatan to be PM beyond 2022 at quite a big price a few weeks ago and as of right now I'm glad I did.
On topic, I remain a Buttisceptic - too much of a nice intellectual's choice. Doing well in Iowa is good, but not as decisive as all that, and he lacks a nationwide core vote; in particular, he doesn't do especially well against Trump.
Anyway, what appears to be Johnson's prime motivation?
Con Majority 2.64
Con Minority 6.60
Lab Minority 4.10
If you think that BXP will damage Tories due to what they will call a BINO, I`m tempted by the Lab Minority odds.
Comments?
As for the odds against Trump, they are of fairly limited meaning this early in the game.
Edited extra bit: ha, sleepy homophone error corrected.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1183885426412703745?s=20
Off topic but in the vain hope we can talk about something other than whatever gruel is being prepared for the DUP and ERG to sample, some comment on the Queen's Speech:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/10/queens-speech-confirms-governments-devolution-plans?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
As usual with Johnson, very long on generalities and very short on anything approaching specifics. A word like "devolution" can mean anything to anyone. Is Boris advocating regional assemblies or simply giving more central Government largesse (no doubt with strings attached) to Councils?
Then of course there's the small matter of reforming adult social care which is once again dressed up in aspirations but is devoid of real content. In my view, that is going to be the defining policy issue of post-EU Britain. How are we going to treat older people not just in terms of care but in more general terms? I see a growing trend away from treating them as a separate social group and more to re-integrating them within working society but end of life or palliative care remains one of those very difficult areas for public debate and discussion which I suspect Johnson will go nowhere near.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50065292
I am, though, prepared to believe you know bugger all about brain surgery.
Sigh... Please tell me I’m wrong.
Every single time PB gets over excited.
So, I’ll believe it when I see it.
I would say that 82% of Cons members that I see would be incapable of running an ice-cream stall in a heatwave. Those that haven't left their business days long behind them.
Those noble people involved in small- and medium-sized business are far too busy being involved in their small- and medium-sized businesses to have the time to fanny around at political party meetings, still less head out on cold, windy nights shoving Party literature through letterboxes.
But as a vision that you have pulled out of your arse, yours is certainly a compelling one.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42277040
We used to hear about BINO or Brexit in Name Only. This is Deal in Name Only. It gets us out Oct 31st -ish and a one year transition. It does absolutely nothing for mainland UK, which is why the ERG love it. It utterly screws the DUP tendency in NI. Although I don't have a lot of sympathy for them as a party, I have a feeling we're storing up problems.
I suppose it is the old buy on rumour sell on fact dynamic.
It slightly mirrors the way that some people feel about wealth. Replace "small business" with "wage earner" and "big business" with "high net worth individuals". The wealth one is one I've always sympathised with, but I haven't thought much about small businesses' attitudes towards big businesses, so thanks for giving me something to chew over.
Last night's Angus Reid poll put the Conservatives four points ahead but with both main parties losing ground to the NDP which is closing in on 20% - the numbers were CON 33%, LIB 29%, NDP 19%. This is very close to the IPSOS numbers from Monday which were 32-30-20.
The last Quebec poll confirms BQ continuing to surge and are on 31%, just two points behind the Liberals. The Conservatives and NDP remain in the doldrums and the question is with BQ up 12 from 2015 and NDP down 15 is how many gains will BQ make - perhaps as many as twenty.
The NDP national numbers are comparable to 2015 but they are well down in Quebec so where is the consequential improvement - British Columbia perhaps?
The Conservatives are doing no better in percentage terms than 2015 but the 3-4% swing from Trudeau will give Scheer more seats than the 99 won by Harper last time but nowhere near a majority. I do think the Conservatives could just be the largest party in terms of votes and seats but it may be Trudeau will be able to survive in power with BQ and NDP support.
https://twitter.com/Sandbach/status/1184371828980178944
NB Antoinette Sandbach voted for Theresa May's deal at every opportunity.
It does seem a big price to pay but she is one of several who will see their seats won by anti EU conservatives, unfortunately
Another monumentally wrong insight from you. Not hugely surprising, that said.
and he comes from Berkshire
I am on at crazy long odds. Make my year America!!!
I will post the link if I find it again.
Sees Private Francois is trending.
Swear a bit.
Logs off.
We cannot go on as we are and I think NI for working pensioners is sellable as a policy for all the howls of outrage it will provoke. Care is a much harder question to resolve and we often forget the numbers requiring care are a small proportion of the elderly population and it's not just about dementia care - it also means helping those families who take on the care of elderly relatives.
Buttigieg also scored some hits on Warren in the debate last night on how she will have to raise taxes for her proposed Medicare for all plan, something Sanders has admitted he will have to do but not yet her. If she did become nominee be assured the Trump campaign would also run ads hitting her on taxes
Assuming that (a) a deal is reached and (b) it is as reported.
And if the PD takes out all the bits Labour likes why should they vote for it?
All a bit of a clusterfuck really.
Meanwhile Syria is a mess, again, and Barcelona burns.
Oh - and I have bronchitis. Bummer.
This year, it’s the BQ surging and NDP ticking up (a bit). That will hurt the Liberals as they’ll lose seats in Quebec (the Tories won’t be too badly affected there) and the NDP will hurt their vote share in Ontario, thereby helping the Tories win a few more seats there.
What I can’t see is Scheer forming a Government.
The Tories only likely coalition partners, the People's Party of Canada, are just polling 3% at most.
Latest Nanos is Liberals 32%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 19% but Trudeau still narrowly leads as preferred PM
(LEGAL MUST KEEP IN) Prof Obbink did not respond to The Times, The Washington Post and The Daily Telegraph's requests for comment.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7577717/Oxford-professor-accused-selling-ancient-Bible-fragments-American-billionaire.html
Mr. B, I appreciate the link but my time's a bit limited (hence only posting every 45-60 minutes or so) so it might take me a while to get to it.
A good article here from Syed Kamall