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System · October 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

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Omnium · October 2019

Not last

ozymandias · October 2019

or first. but second

kle4 · October 2019

Makes sense. The numbers just are't there to pass something, even now. Possibly getting closer, if only because of Brexit fatigue from the ERG.

ozymandias · October 2019

kle4 said:
Makes sense. The numbers just are't there to pass something, even now. Possibly getting closer, if only because of Brexit fatigue from the ERG.

ERG can probably see the writing on the wall for the whole Brexit adventure. Evident even to them it's in with the Deal or nothing now.

rcs1000 · October 2019

Foxy said:
Actually, at least in the Premier League, football fans are now very woke.

Not at the Emirates, they're not. Most of them are dozing lightly, and the rest are on their phones. Occasionally someone will find they've woke-n up, and accidentally watched a bit of football.

Yellow_Submarine · October 2019

A deal means ratification. Ratification takes time and needs Parliament to be sitting. That time pushes any election too close to Christmas. Once an election can't be held as it's too close to Christmas then dissolution has to be in January as you can't have a campaign over the Christmas period. An early February election is so long after Do or Die day as to be too much of a risk for Boris. So if there is a deal then it makes sense imho to wrap Brexit up in it's entirety - actual exit day before polling day. So the market moves in threader are reasonable - if the deal speculation is accurate.

Theuniondivvie · October 2019

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:
Actually, at least in the Premier League, football fans are now very woke.
Not at the Emirates, they're not. Most of them are dozing lightly, and the rest are on their phones. Occasionally someone will find they've woke-n up, and accidentally watched a bit of football.

Or even played a bit.

Brom · October 2019

Given the positive noises from Labour rebels/ERG and nothing too unpleasant from the DU P there is now a high likelihood of a deal passing. Could well be crossover soon

scapa · October 2019

Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.

Yellow_Submarine · October 2019

Alternately if MV4 fails or we don't get as far as an agreed treaty text - or the DUP decides to go nuclear by backing a No Confidence motion - then the market in the thread header will quickly move the other way.

Omnium · October 2019

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.

Yep.

(welcome to pb)

ozymandias · October 2019

Omnium said:

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
Yep.

(welcome to pb)

Well - the shape might be quite different to Mays deal. We'll just have to wait and see,

PeterMannion · October 2019

TMay has to vote against, Shirley?

ozymandias · October 2019

PeterMannion said:
TMay has to vote against, Shirley?

I don't see why. And don't call me Shirley.

(I just had to bite)

ozymandias · October 2019

I'm hoping for Boris' version of the Benn Act to be in the Deal. Sure I'll be disappointed but I can hope.

basicbridge · October 2019

Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).

Omnium · October 2019

ozymandias said:

Omnium said:

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
Yep.

(welcome to pb)

Well - the shape might be quite different to Mays deal. We'll just have to wait and see,

Sure. I think scapa got the gist of things right though, and I wasn't going to be picky about the detail on his/her first post.

May's deal in Boris' clothes may well be our result.

It's not the case that the framing may not convey something better though. The political agreement will have a different feel. (Counts for nothing mind)

ozymandias · October 2019

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).

As it did for a friend of mine at work.

TOPPING · October 2019

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.

In a nutshell.

But am I dreaming or did one of the votes at one point outlaw a border down the Irish Sea?

And welcome.

ozymandias · October 2019

Omnium said:

ozymandias said:

Omnium said:

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
Yep.

(welcome to pb)

Well - the shape might be quite different to Mays deal. We'll just have to wait and see,
Sure. I think scapa got the gist of things right though, and I wasn't going to be picky about the detail on his/her first post.

May's deal in Boris' clothes may well be our result.

It's not the case that the framing may not convey something better though. The political agreement will have a different feel. (Counts for nothing mind)

Very true. And yes - good first post Scapa. Welcome,

TGOHF2 · October 2019

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1184192253683785728?s=21

DavidL · October 2019

So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.

RochdalePioneers · October 2019

TGOHF2 said:
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1184192253683785728?s=21

And nobody has a clue where we will be at 4pm tomorrow

Byronic · October 2019

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.

Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.

Danny565 · October 2019

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.

Yes, I tend to agree that this deal might well get through, and Brexit will officially, technically, happen.

And off we all go into Transition Limboland where....precisely nothing changes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO_Fg6R0i5w

Brom · October 2019

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).

If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)

Andrew · October 2019

BF approx 40% of a MV passing in 2019. Makes sense I think: Benn extension of 3 mths, or a possible technical extension into the new year, or the HoC votes it down again, etc etc.

TOPPING · October 2019

ozymandias said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
As it did for a friend of mine at work.

Well that settles it then.

DavidL · October 2019

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.

What he really needs from the summit is a declaration that an extension is available to implement a deal but not otherwise. He gets that and he is home and hosed.

ydoethur · October 2019

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.

That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.

nichomar · October 2019

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.

That is complete shite, any MP who votes for this knowing it will damage his constituents and the country is failing in his duty to protect them.

ozymandias · October 2019

TOPPING said:

ozymandias said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
As it did for a friend of mine at work.
Well that settles it then.

Didn't say it did - others have gone the opposite way. I wasn't making any profound universal point.

Phil · October 2019

There’s an awful lot of chicken counting going on in this thread. I’m inclined to wait & see the text of any deal: /If/ Boris can pull something out of the hat & get the ERG and the DUP onside, then it looks like it’ll be game on for Brexit.

Those were a very chunky pair of problems back in March, but maybe the ERG have come to their senses and decided to quit grandstanding.

Brom · October 2019

As a supporter of May's deal the potential new deal is very palatable. There are many differences between TM and BJ but the widest chasm was the formers inability to sell something and the latter's ability as a salesman. I suspect Bozza's gumption and charisma will give this more than a fighting chance of passing, whereas Terry never stood up for or believed in what she negotiated.

rottenborough · October 2019

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184189599763091462

rcs1000 · October 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:
"British family detained after 'accidentally' crossing the US border
The family claim they have been mistreated in detention and have been subjected to "frigid" temperatures.

A British family have been detained after they accidentally crossed into the US while trying to avoid hitting an animal on the road.
David Connors, 30, his wife Eileen, 24, and their three-month-old son claim they took a wrong turn as they were driving across the US-Canada border near Vancouver during a family holiday on 3 October."

https://news.sky.com/story/british-family-detained-after-accidentally-crossing-the-us-border-11836492
Easy to do from Vancouver but a real warning to take care near the border.

When we visit our son and daughter in law in Vancouver we steer well clear of the Canadian-US border

There's a golf course in the US where the clubhouse is in Canada to take advantage of the looser alcohol restrictions. In theory you're supposed to use a telephone at the course to go through immigration on your way in and out. I doubt anyone does.

DavidL · October 2019

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, I tend to agree that this deal might well get through, and Brexit will officially, technically, happen.

And off we all go into Transition Limboland where....precisely nothing changes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO_Fg6R0i5w

I disagree. The difference is that we will be technically out. No MEPs, no EU Summits, no meetings of ministers. The economics of trade will be similar but there is a real chance that the heat will be gone. When we get to that point I sincerely hope we all start to calm down and appreciate how much it makes sense for us to work on together.

nichomar · October 2019

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)

The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.

MarqueeMark · October 2019

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.

I've been very bullish on here about a deal for ages. The pieces are falling as I've predicted. Boris to take credit for doing what May could not do - get May's Shit Deal through. Admittedly, it will have a few tweaks. He has got the unopenable WA reopened. He has got Tusk and Barnier looking like they've chewed a picnic of hornet-encrusted sandwiches. He's driven round the Benn Act Maginot Line.

But he will be remembered for delivering Brexit.

And a grateful nation will say "thank fuck that's over...."

TOPPING · October 2019

ozymandias said:

TOPPING said:

ozymandias said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
As it did for a friend of mine at work.
Well that settles it then.
Didn't say it did - others have gone the opposite way. I wasn't making any profound universal point.

Listen, if your mate at work has been turned that's the whole country.

DavidL · October 2019

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.

Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.

SandyRentool · October 2019

Isn't all this just Bozo preparing to blame the EU for the lack of an agreement? He'll claim that Parliament was ready to agree to 'his deal' and it is only Jonny Foreigner who stopped it.

The facts that there is no 'his deal' and the assertion that Parliament would vote in favour is pure speculation won't stand in the way of the spin.

BTW, I got home at 1am after my 2-hour delayed flight. The non-vegan XRer was sat across the aisle.

ozymandias · October 2019

TOPPING said:

ozymandias said:

TOPPING said:

ozymandias said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
As it did for a friend of mine at work.
Well that settles it then.
Didn't say it did - others have gone the opposite way. I wasn't making any profound universal point.
Listen, if your mate at work has been turned that's the whole country.

You know that I know that's not true.

Yellow_Submarine · October 2019

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.

That's true. Without the UK wide backstop in the WA the EU hand in the FTA negotiations just got stronger. As the drop over the cliff edge is higher. But Boris has invested so much - and by extension the entire Tory Party - in doing and dying that that is a problem for another day. Of course with no UK wide backstop investment will continued to be chilled until an FTA is agreed but again I think the Tories are passed caring.

DavidL · October 2019

Phil said:
There’s an awful lot of chicken counting going on in this thread. I’m inclined to wait & see the text of any deal: /If/ Boris can pull something out of the hat & get the ERG and the DUP onside, then it looks like it’ll be game on for Brexit.

Those were a very chunky pair of problems back in March, but maybe the ERG have come to their senses and decided to quit grandstanding.

You really know how to shake our confidence don't you?

MarqueeMark · October 2019

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.

That is the only hope you have. Poisoning the well. Salting the fields.

You're going to be disappointed.

Danny565 · October 2019

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, I tend to agree that this deal might well get through, and Brexit will officially, technically, happen.

And off we all go into Transition Limboland where....precisely nothing changes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO_Fg6R0i5w
I disagree. The difference is that we will be technically out. No MEPs, no EU Summits, no meetings of ministers. The economics of trade will be similar but there is a real chance that the heat will be gone. When we get to that point I sincerely hope we all start to calm down and appreciate how much it makes sense for us to work on together.

Like I was saying earlier, I would personally be very happy with the transition going on indefinitely, with extensions to it being granted every year (which seems like by far the most likely outcome to me).

But I'm sceptical that most Leave voters would be happy with it, or that it would take any of the heat out of the issue. Certainly Farage will be crying "betrayal" as loud as ever if the situation with immigration, trade deals, fishing, etc., is exactly the same as when we were in the EU.

Brom · October 2019

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.

A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.

DavidL · October 2019

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:
"British family detained after 'accidentally' crossing the US border
The family claim they have been mistreated in detention and have been subjected to "frigid" temperatures.

A British family have been detained after they accidentally crossed into the US while trying to avoid hitting an animal on the road.
David Connors, 30, his wife Eileen, 24, and their three-month-old son claim they took a wrong turn as they were driving across the US-Canada border near Vancouver during a family holiday on 3 October."

https://news.sky.com/story/british-family-detained-after-accidentally-crossing-the-us-border-11836492
Easy to do from Vancouver but a real warning to take care near the border.

When we visit our son and daughter in law in Vancouver we steer well clear of the Canadian-US border
There's a golf course in the US where the clubhouse is in Canada to take advantage of the looser alcohol restrictions. In theory you're supposed to use a telephone at the course to go through immigration on your way in and out. I doubt anyone does.

There's a British couple + child who crossed from Canada on a dirt track and have been in custody for 2 weeks. I can't be the only one who thought about the NI border on hearing that story.

rcs1000 · October 2019

Anabobazina said:

TGOHF2 said:

AndyJS said:
"British family detained after 'accidentally' crossing the US border
The family claim they have been mistreated in detention and have been subjected to "frigid" temperatures.

A British family have been detained after they accidentally crossed into the US while trying to avoid hitting an animal on the road.
David Connors, 30, his wife Eileen, 24, and their three-month-old son claim they took a wrong turn as they were driving across the US-Canada border near Vancouver during a family holiday on 3 October."

https://news.sky.com/story/british-family-detained-after-accidentally-crossing-the-us-border-11836492
More to come on this one I suspect..
It’s not possible, as I understand it, to just drive across the North American Border without passing a checkpoint. You can walk across the border illegally (although you’d have to cross a 20ft wide border strip in woodland areas) but driving, not that I can see. So, I don’t understand this story. Details missing I think.

I'm not sure that's true. There's the Northwest Angle, for example, which is part of the US but only accessible from Canada. (And there's no border guards, so you are free to walk between the two.)

There's also this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mURgzLiy0DA

kle4 · October 2019

DavidL said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
What he really needs from the summit is a declaration that an extension is available to implement a deal but not otherwise. He gets that and he is home and hosed.

What's in it for the EU to do that? They've just proven they can, with great effort, be willing to entertain fresh offers, so presumably are open to a theoretical Labour negotation so why close off such an option, should the British people want to go for it, or indeed remain etc?

not_on_fire · October 2019

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.

I thought you said No Deal would be just fine?

ozymandias · October 2019

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
What he really needs from the summit is a declaration that an extension is available to implement a deal but not otherwise. He gets that and he is home and hosed.
What's in it for the EU to do that? They've just proven they can, with great effort, be willing to entertain fresh offers, so presumably are open to a theoretical Labour negotation so why close off such an option, should the British people want to go for it, or indeed remain etc?

Because it keeps it going. I doubt the EU want to continually have to go through this charade.

oldpolitics · October 2019

Dream job for some posters? Shame about the likely pay: http://www.w4mpjobs.org/JobDetails.aspx?jobid=73100

DecrepitJohnL · October 2019

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1184189599763091462

It will have surprised many that it is the Conservatives purging moderate MPs, not the Corbynite trots.

nichomar · October 2019

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
That is the only hope you have. Poisoning the well. Salting the fields.

You're going to be disappointed.

No I won’t be, I’ll be better off financially than I have been for the last three years and hopefully the government won’t continue to piss off EU citizens in the UK. Maybe one day you will be able to tell me what benefit all this has been about without resorting to ridiculous claims about non existent loss of sovereignty and the wonderful future we now face.

rottenborough · October 2019

Some Democratic presidential campaigns are contemplating once unheard-of White House victory scenarios that leave out Ohio. The storied swing state — a place that sided with the winning presidential candidate in all but one election since 1944 — seems likely to be eclipsed by Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in next year’s election.

https://apnews.com/f98d8fa1286d473ba0e5c3f8b9f03191

Gabs2 · October 2019

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.

No, he is not. Neither the May backstop nor the EU backstop had a get-out clause for Northern Ireland or Northern Ireland outside the EU Customs Territory. This is the first deal with both Northern Ireland's democratic consent and also then benefitting from UK trade deals with the rest of the world.

kle4 · October 2019

SandyRentool said:
Isn't all this just Bozo preparing to blame the EU for the lack of an agreement? He'll claim that Parliament was ready to agree to 'his deal' and it is only Jonny Foreigner who stopped it.

The facts that there is no 'his deal' and the assertion that Parliament would vote in favour is pure speculation won't stand in the way of the spin.

I'd have thought that is his plan, but in his defence if it is his plan he has put in more effort to sell the ruse than it looked like he would.

Wulfrun_Phil · October 2019

RochdalePioneers said:

TGOHF2 said:
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1184192253683785728?s=21
And nobody has a clue where we will be at 4pm tomorrow

This we do know. As it is clear that the EU and UK are already within touching distance of a deal, it is certain that a deal would have been reached if the EU still faced the otherwise inevitable outcome that the UK would leave on 31st October, because they would then clearly have been induced to put something extra on the table to avoid the outcome they really don't want. So it turns out that that the only point of the Benn Act has either been to prevent Brexit occuring with a deal or to ensure that the UK leaves with a deal but under inferior terms to those which the UK could otherwise have secured.

scapa · October 2019

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.

"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.

Scott_P · October 2019

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1184197793877020672

nichomar · October 2019

Gabs2 said:

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
No, he is not. Neither the May backstop nor the EU backstop had a get-out clause for Northern Ireland or Northern Ireland outside the EU Customs Territory. This is the first deal with both Northern Ireland's democratic consent and also then benefitting from UK trade deals with the rest of the world.

Which deal is this?

Scott_P · October 2019

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1184196834526408705

ozymandias · October 2019

nichomar said:

Gabs2 said:

scapa said:
Johnson's going to try and sell something that May rejected, the Brexit blocking ERG extremists rejected, the Dup rejected, that no-one voted for, and that has no benefits to any party concerned.

And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
No, he is not. Neither the May backstop nor the EU backstop had a get-out clause for Northern Ireland or Northern Ireland outside the EU Customs Territory. This is the first deal with both Northern Ireland's democratic consent and also then benefitting from UK trade deals with the rest of the world.
Which deal is this?

Wait and see.

Scott_P · October 2019

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1184198619773198336

Omnium · October 2019

How can the BBC website find the most important issue of the moment to be that 'football must wage war on racists' ?

I find it slightly awful that they even run the quotation.

DavidL · October 2019

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
What he really needs from the summit is a declaration that an extension is available to implement a deal but not otherwise. He gets that and he is home and hosed.
What's in it for the EU to do that? They've just proven they can, with great effort, be willing to entertain fresh offers, so presumably are open to a theoretical Labour negotation so why close off such an option, should the British people want to go for it, or indeed remain etc?

I think that they are sick to death of this and have a very full agenda that there is never the time nor the energy to discuss. A transitional arrangement with the UK keeps most of the positives from their side without the political hassle. The technical stuff will still have to be debated of course but the polys can move on to reforming the EZ, agreeing the parameters of centralised budgetary approval, the collapsing democracies of the east, the immigration crisis, the huge distortions caused by the ECB's policies, the oncoming recession etc etc.

ydoethur · October 2019

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.

We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.

rottenborough · October 2019

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184198184509288449

nichomar · October 2019

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.

What opportunities?

Brom · October 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1184196834526408705

Not sure what stage these nutters are at yet.Possibly denial? The problem with those who were spoiled and never accepted the referendum result is that they'll struggle more than the rest of us to get their heads round reality

ozymandias · October 2019

nichomar said:

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.
What opportunities?

The opportunities provided by a solid re-elected majority Conservative government of course.

DavidL · October 2019

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.

Agree 100%

nichomar · October 2019

ozymandias said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.
What opportunities?
The opportunities provided by a solid re-elected majority Conservative government of course.

Well that fucks 60% of the country

Foxy · October 2019

@AlastairMeeks

Have I found the breakfast for you...

https://twitter.com/LittleDavey1978/status/1184049035038150656?s=19

SquareRoot · October 2019

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184198184509288449

This is all bullshit IMHO.. They are going to say they have done a deal even if there is no 100% agreement. Both sides NEED a deal.

Wulfrun_Phil · October 2019

rottenborough said:
Some Democratic presidential campaigns are contemplating once unheard-of White House victory scenarios that leave out Ohio. The storied swing state — a place that sided with the winning presidential candidate in all but one election since 1944 — seems likely to be eclipsed by Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in next year’s election.

https://apnews.com/f98d8fa1286d473ba0e5c3f8b9f03191

A touch premature. Yesterday's polling had Biden 2 points ahead of Trump in Ohio, and Warren and Sanders both tied with Trump there.

We know also that the eventual challenger's polling position relative to sitting presidents tends to be stronger after the primary process has ended than when it is in full swing and they are yet to be confirmed as their party's nominee.

ozymandias · October 2019

nichomar said:

ozymandias said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.
What opportunities?
The opportunities provided by a solid re-elected majority Conservative government of course.
Well that fucks 60% of the country

If you say so then it must be true

kle4 · October 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1184198619773198336

I thought they only had a couple of hours left to send something to the EU? Either its too late, or it's done, surely?

Omnium · October 2019

nichomar said:

ozymandias said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.
What opportunities?
The opportunities provided by a solid re-elected majority Conservative government of course.
Well that fucks 60% of the country

Well yes in terms of dinner-party-diatribes. They will of course benefit from a more prosperous, healthier, better educated, and generally better run state. But as you say their wibbling will lose its force.

Scott_P · October 2019

SquareRoot said:
Both sides NEED a deal.

Which 2 of the many sides are you referring to?

DavidL · October 2019

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.

We voted to leave. The fact that the tossers who constitute our political class thought that they knew better and insisted that we negotiated with both hands and a leg tied behind our backs whilst cheering on the other side at every opportunity is not the fault of those who voted to leave.

nichomar · October 2019

DavidL said:

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.
We voted to leave. The fact that the tossers who constitute our political class thought that they knew better and insisted that we negotiated with both hands and a leg tied behind our backs whilst cheering on the other side at every opportunity is not the fault of those who voted to leave.

You voted to leave, there was and never has been a we about this. Put EEA/EFTA on the table and then we can talk

Mexicanpete · October 2019

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.

A border in the North Sea! Why did no one think of that before? Boris really is a genius!

DavidL · October 2019

nichomar said:

DavidL said:

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.
We voted to leave. The fact that the tossers who constitute our political class thought that they knew better and insisted that we negotiated with both hands and a leg tied behind our backs whilst cheering on the other side at every opportunity is not the fault of those who voted to leave.
You voted to leave, there was and never has been a we about this. Put EEA/EFTA on the table and then we can talk

Happy to. Once we have left it is a sensible option to be carefully and hopefully more rationally considered.

ydoethur · October 2019

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.
A border in the North Sea! Why did no one think of that before? Boris really is a genius!

To be picky, it’s the Irish Sea.

kle4 · October 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1184196834526408705

It was a big mistake, but it was understandable she gave in to the temptation - the government was going to find it a hard slog with a slender majority, and it really did look like they could win a comfortable majority and make things, Brexit primarily, go through so much easier. How amusing that it would have gone so much easier without that though.

I remember not thinking an election would be called once A50 had been triggered, on the basis it wasted negotiation time. How naiive I was.

Foxy · October 2019

DavidL said:

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.
We voted to leave. The fact that the tossers who constitute our political class thought that they knew better and insisted that we negotiated with both hands and a leg tied behind our backs whilst cheering on the other side at every opportunity is not the fault of those who voted to leave.

Surely you agree that the Benn Act has been very effective at forcing the PM to the table.

To dine on the 2 year old WA with Irish sea border flavoured humble pie admittedly.

ozymandias · October 2019

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.
A border in the North Sea! Why did no one think of that before? Boris really is a genius!
To be picky, it’s the Irish Sea.

Pedant.

OblitusSumMe · October 2019

PeterMannion said:
TMay has to vote against, Shirley?

She did say that no British Prime Minister could accept a customs border in the Irish Sea. We'll see if that really is what Johnson agrees to, or if it's a sort of Schroedinger's Brexit where the border is simultaneously in the Irish Sea, and not in the Irish Sea.

DavidL · October 2019

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.
We voted to leave. The fact that the tossers who constitute our political class thought that they knew better and insisted that we negotiated with both hands and a leg tied behind our backs whilst cheering on the other side at every opportunity is not the fault of those who voted to leave.
Surely you agree that the Benn Act has been very effective at forcing the PM to the table.

To dine on the 2 year old WA with Irish sea border flavoured humble pie admittedly.

The Benn Act was a ridiculous mistake. If we don't get this over the line that will be why.

Mexicanpete · October 2019

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.
A border in the North Sea! Why did no one think of that before? Boris really is a genius!
To be picky, it’s the Irish Sea.

Oh yeah. No wonder it takes me so long to get from Wales to Ireland!

MarqueeMark · October 2019

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
That is the only hope you have. Poisoning the well. Salting the fields.

You're going to be disappointed.
No I won’t be, I’ll be better off financially than I have been for the last three years and hopefully the government won’t continue to piss off EU citizens in the UK. Maybe one day you will be able to tell me what benefit all this has been about without resorting to ridiculous claims about non existent loss of sovereignty and the wonderful future we now face.

Well as you have already demonstrated your mind is closed to the benefits, I don't think I'll be arsed, thanks.

ydoethur · October 2019

ozymandias said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
We wouldn’t need a deal and need it now if these stupid wankers hadn’t voted against a better deal nine months ago.
A border in the North Sea! Why did no one think of that before? Boris really is a genius!
To be picky, it’s the Irish Sea.
Pedant.

I suppose technically I’m wrong as well. Johnson is proposing a border in the North Sea and English Channel in addition to one in the Irish Sea.

nichomar · October 2019

Omnium said:

nichomar said:

ozymandias said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
A reasonable deal won't damage much either so at worst your man from Hartlepool will wonder what all the fuss was about. Hopefully all but the most ardent remainers come on board when they see the opportunities and realise Britain won't turn into Bulgaria.
What opportunities?
The opportunities provided by a solid re-elected majority Conservative government of course.
Well that fucks 60% of the country
Well yes in terms of dinner-party-diatribes. They will of course benefit from a more prosperous, healthier, better educated, and generally better run state. But as you say their wibbling will lose its force.

Well in my forty years of active politics almost every one of you’re claims are untrue they have progressively destroyed education are in the process of destroying the NHS and are about to sell out our principles to gain a trade deal with the US which will make things worse.

TOPPING · October 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1184196834526408705

If only I'd kept that tweet just after the leadership election which said - can we just skip to the part whereby the only deal that is available is May's WA.

OblitusSumMe · October 2019

It would be quite something if Theresa May were to lose the Conservative whip by voting against a Johnson Brexit deal with an Irish Sea border, though.

kle4 · October 2019

scapa said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

DavidL said:
So Boris is going to have a deal which will involve the EU having moved quite significantly (and him as well of course) to bring to the Commons on Saturday. Will the fanatics who hold the majority in Parliament really have the balls to reject a second deal from the EU? It's possible but the pressure this time is immense.

Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.

For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Yes, indeed. Well put.

Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.

No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.

And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,

It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
That was true when they repeatedly voted down May’s deal, but Johnson, Baker, Francois etc didn’t care then.

It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’

The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now. Right now.
"Easiest deal in human history"

"They need us more than we need them"

"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"

No-one voted for this mess.

No one voted wanting this mess, but our votes opened up to the potential of this mess, even if too many discounted even the possibility of such mess and others, like me, miscalculated just how big a mess it would become.

But anyone voting for 'this mess' seems pretty irrelevant, it has to be dealt with somehow, and that probably won't be in a way that most wanted at the start of all this.

GIN1138 · October 2019

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

nichomar said:

Brom said:

basicbridge said:
Looks to me like a rout of the remainers.

I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
If Boris puts together a reasonable deal against the so called odds as reported in the Guardian then we'll soon find out who the good guys are. Those who feared no deal yet oppose the latest potential deal clearly only care for chaos and making a name for themselves rather than the National Good. (I'll excuse the hard left and SNP from that as by default they would never approve any Tory deal)
The national good was never about leaving it’s only benefiting a few tax avoiding billionaires it won’t be long before the man on the Hartlepool omnibus finds out he’s been conned.
That is the only hope you have. Poisoning the well. Salting the fields.

You're going to be disappointed.
No I won’t be, I’ll be better off financially than I have been for the last three years and hopefully the government won’t continue to piss off EU citizens in the UK. Maybe one day you will be able to tell me what benefit all this has been about without resorting to ridiculous claims about non existent loss of sovereignty and the wonderful future we now face.

You'll have to start campaigning to REJOIN!

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