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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election
Chart of Betfair movements from betdata.io
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And we're so far past the looking glass he might do it.
(welcome to pb)
(I just had to bite)
I was one once. But the behaviour of remain since the referendum has alienated me (and, seemingly, much of the public).
May's deal in Boris' clothes may well be our result.
It's not the case that the framing may not convey something better though. The political agreement will have a different feel. (Counts for nothing mind)
But am I dreaming or did one of the votes at one point outlaw a border down the Irish Sea?
And welcome.
Boris has achieved what May didn't, a sense of momentum and a genuinely cliff edge moment at which Parliament is going to have to decide just how much contempt they have for their employers. The answer of course is plenty but enough? That would be ballsy.
For the first time in some months I am starting to believe that this is possible again.
Any MP that votes down this deal is saying a big F You to British voters, and not just Leave voters.
No matter how you spin it, that will look bad.
And if the result is No Deal, or civil war, then it will look even badderer,
It's a whites-of-their-eyes time.
And off we all go into Transition Limboland where....precisely nothing changes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO_Fg6R0i5w
It’s breathtakingly cynical to go to an earlier draft of the deal before May extracted concessions and say ‘now we can vote for it.’
The EU must be scarce able to believe their luck.
Those were a very chunky pair of problems back in March, but maybe the ERG have come to their senses and decided to quit grandstanding.
But he will be remembered for delivering Brexit.
And a grateful nation will say "thank fuck that's over...."
The facts that there is no 'his deal' and the assertion that Parliament would vote in favour is pure speculation won't stand in the way of the spin.
BTW, I got home at 1am after my 2-hour delayed flight. The non-vegan XRer was sat across the aisle.
You're going to be disappointed.
But I'm sceptical that most Leave voters would be happy with it, or that it would take any of the heat out of the issue. Certainly Farage will be crying "betrayal" as loud as ever if the situation with immigration, trade deals, fishing, etc., is exactly the same as when we were in the EU.
There's also this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mURgzLiy0DA
https://apnews.com/f98d8fa1286d473ba0e5c3f8b9f03191
"They need us more than we need them"
"Who cares? We need a deal and we need it now"
No-one voted for this mess.
I find it slightly awful that they even run the quotation.
Have I found the breakfast for you...
https://twitter.com/LittleDavey1978/status/1184049035038150656?s=19
We know also that the eventual challenger's polling position relative to sitting presidents tends to be stronger after the primary process has ended than when it is in full swing and they are yet to be confirmed as their party's nominee.
I remember not thinking an election would be called once A50 had been triggered, on the basis it wasted negotiation time. How naiive I was.
To dine on the 2 year old WA with Irish sea border flavoured humble pie admittedly.
Well in my forty years of active politics almost every one of you’re claims are untrue they have progressively destroyed education are in the process of destroying the NHS and are about to sell out our principles to gain a trade deal with the US which will make things worse.
But anyone voting for 'this mess' seems pretty irrelevant, it has to be dealt with somehow, and that probably won't be in a way that most wanted at the start of all this.