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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2
There'll be 3+ debate polls tonight
Opinium & ICM have demographics weightings unlike YouGov last week which didn't even do gender split
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Comments
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Madeira it is ....0
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Have you had a punt Mike ?0
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Do you think he'll mention the gay sandstorms?
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When will Dimblebore retire? Obviously nobody has the guts to sack the old codger.0
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Abysmal performance by Nick Clegg.0
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The Guardian will be running an ICM poll after tonight's debate.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/apr/02/farage-v-clegg-the-debate-for-europe-politics-live-blog0 -
I'm rooting for the winner ....MikeSmithson said:
Mrs JackW and I are having something of a novelty tonight .... (make your own jokes there) .... it's called a TV diner ....
Apparently one serves the plated meal on a tray with cutlery and places the tray carefully on ones lap whilst seated in front of the idiot box.
Quite extraordinary ....
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I don't think Auntie can afford the pay-off, - much cheaper to wait for him to fall off the perch.MonikerDiCanio said:When will Dimblebore retire? Obviously nobody has the guts to sack the old codger.
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FPT
My fear for Farage has been that he has not invested enough effort into preparing his case and points ahead of the debates. We will shortly see if Farage has invested the effort. If he went for Clegg would it be on the "trust" matter? Take the tuition u-turn and add in all the duplicity and back stabbing that the LDs have done in coalition? I doubt that he will.0 -
FPT
@JackW
I'm all a quiver in anticipation ....
My tenterhooks are in a laver of discombobulation ....
Yes a decision has to made .....
I must debate - madeira or port for after dinner libation ....
Choices .. choices .. choices ..
Have some madeira, m'dear. You really have nothing to fear.
I'm not trying to tempt you, that wouldn't be right,
You shouldn't drink spirits at this time of night.
Have some madeira, m'dear. It's really much nicer than beer.
I don't care for sherry, one cannot drink stout,
And port is a wine I can well do without...
It's simply a case of chacun a son gout
Have some madeira, m'dear.
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Are there odds on the audience figures?0
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FPT
Ladbrokes constituency odds are currently giving the following numbers:
Lab 305
Con 278
LD 38
SNP 7
Lab short of majority by 21 seats.0 -
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Farage monstering Clegg!0
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This debate is a disaster for Ed Miliband. Terrible performance by him. Car crash.0
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Awkward for the staff. Or are they watching in the scullery?JackW said:
I'm rooting for the winner ....MikeSmithson said:
Mrs JackW and I are having something of a novelty tonight .... (make your own jokes there) .... it's called a TV diner ....
Apparently one serves the plated meal on a tray with cutlery and places the tray carefully on ones lap whilst seated in front of the idiot box.
Quite extraordinary ....0 -
Hash of a hashtag for the debate.0
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"muppets" and "dunce" surely odds on...is there a market?0
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I know I shouldn't laugh, but...!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/10739277/Device-exploded-in-bombers-face-after-he-forgot-about-clocks-changing.html0 -
Was Clegg staring at the wrong camera on purpose?0
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19:02: - Nigel Farage has won a toss of a coin and is speaking first.
1:0 to Farage.0 -
Great victory for Clegg in #europedebate Oh wait the clocks have changed, sorry, will repost in an hour.0
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Farage railing against "big business"... another sign he's moving UKIP to a Front National-type leftwing populist economic platform. A very smart move considering his potential voters' views.0
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They're not laugh a minute guys are they?
I mean we don't want Les Dawson reprised but a bit of humour would make them seem a bit more human, less shrill, less automaton-like.
Do these people not have lifestyle coaches? They've both had a personality bypass.0 -
Make that 7.5 SNP and 37.5 Lib Dem. The SNP just went joint FAV in Gordon today. (11/8)AndyJS said:FPT
Ladbrokes constituency odds are currently giving the following numbers:
Lab 305
Con 278
LD 38
SNP 7
Lab short of majority by 21 seats.
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I think Clegg's been told *more passion*.0
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GO NIGEL
GO NIGEL
GO NIGEL0 -
The problem for Nick Clegg is, no matter how effective his debating style might be on its own merits, it reminds people of his performance in the 2010 debates....and his performance in the 2010 debates is forever associated with the "betrayal" in the immediate aftermath.0
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It's incredible that Clegg's ostrich faction of spinners still don't realise that a Blair impersonation just puts off voters now. The hand gestures, the oily delivery, 'the HARD working people' style cadences in the platitudes. If Clegg wants to be seen as something other than a career politician with no principles, imitating Blair is hardly going to do it.0
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Looks like the podia layout changed to encourage them to respond to each other more. Though Farage looks like he's in the chair being in the centre.0
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Interesting. Where does one place the decanter?JackW said:
Mrs JackW and I are having something of a novelty tonight .... (make your own jokes there) .... it's called a TV diner ....
Apparently one serves the plated meal on a tray with cutlery and places the tray carefully on ones lap whilst seated in front of the idiot box.0 -
As expected it has turned into an attack on Farage over Putin.... marvelous distraction job by the europhiles.0
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really really really boring.
It is nothing about substance all about whether you like one or the other and that is determined in the first minute.
Neither are relaxed (fair enough) which has resulted in a wooden, humourless, shrill, shouty performance from both.
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Turning into a PMQs atmos.0
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FPT @richard_nabavi
They're not buying in what you would regard as nice areas of central London, but in Battersea and Fulham and Twickenham, where you don't need a million quid to get a reasonable flat (and there are two earners, no children, probably).
You'd be shocked. I just looked at Prince of Wales Drive - what I regard as nice Battersea. 3 bedroom flat, 1,650 square foot: £1.9 million. I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
http://www.primelocation.com/for-sale/details/31101032?search_identifier=d8e3fafad406cc6fc38a1d53aeb62f230 -
Oh dear, both getting bogged down in rubbish0
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Nick being patronising and misleading.0
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This is getting really angry, starting to worry one or both of them will say something that destroys them in the papers tomorrow.0
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FPT @another_richard
I didn't question (or didn't mean to question) the accuracy of your maths.
However, your statistics are useless in determining the right response to the situation because there are two big anomalies that you refuse to adjust for.0 -
Not as good as last week so far.0
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Dimbleby has twice picked on what Farage has said.0
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Hope it's Farage! But fear it'll be Clegg!Quincel said:This is getting really angry, starting to worry one or both of them will say something that destroys them in the papers tomorrow.
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Has anyone noticed Nige is wearing an Old Etonian tie?
Perhaps he really is aiming for No. 10?0 -
Charles, there is also a disconnect in London from house price increases and residential rental rates (+1.6% in 2013).0
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Clegg sounding comically desperate already wittering about moon landings and conspiracies.
Still, we had the 'pleasure' of seeing little Ed and Cammie banging on idiotically about dunces and muppets earlier so the labour and tory spinners rubbishing this will hardly be taken very seriously considering just how 'impressive' those two are.
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And on 'twitter' Auntie is running an instant rebuttal service - can you spot a theme..?TCPoliticalBetting said:Dimbleby has twice picked on what Farage has said.
FACTCHECKING 19:15: Emily Craig Political analyst, BBC News
Nick Clegg says half of our exports are to Europe and we buy only 8% of what they sell. Official figures back this up. In 2013, UK exports totalled £304bn, with half (£153bn) going to the EU. We import around 9% of the goods exported within the EU - in 2012 it was £257bn of a total of £2,840bn.
FACTCHECKING 19:12: Emily Craig Political analyst, BBC News
This is the car industry report they were talking about. 58% of those surveyed said they wanted to stay in with reform. 34% would stay in regardless. 3% want to leave.
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Thanks to Richard Nabavi for drawing the Putin bet to my attention. If only I could get that daily rate of interest every day.0
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Farage terrible over Putin. Hideous.
A bit of advice: when in a hole, stop digging.0 -
I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
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Yields getting crushed. People continue to buy as a safe haven rather than to make money.TCPoliticalBetting said:Charles, there is also a disconnect in London from house price increases and residential rental rates (+1.6% in 2013).
But I was chatting someone the other day. This shift to allow conversion from commercial to residential is bigger than I imagined. He is converting half of a small retail area into 4 flats - and the capital value has increased by £1m as a result. By the time he has done the rest he'll have made £3m clear profit on an investment of about £650,000 about 4 years ago.
Thanks George!0 -
@AveryLP
Whilst on the madeira theme and filed under "one that got away" I was in an Edinburgh antique shop, many moons back, and I spotted some silver wine labels with one misspelt "medeira". I thought it simply a novelty and although very modestly priced I didn't buy it.
Move on some years and these unusually spelt label make big bucks.0 -
Just had a look at that Populus monthly summary. Very frightening findings for Lamont's hopeless Slabbers and Rennie's hopeless Con-merchants.
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
SNP 34% (+14)
Lab 34% (-8)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 7% (-12)
UKIP 3% (+2)
Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats)
SNP 20 seats (+14 seats)
Con 2 seats (+1 seat)
LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140401-Populus_FT-March-2014.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=18&LAB=34&LIB=7&NAT=34®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
Not sure talking about Elvis and moon landings was a good move from Clegg.0
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Al-Beeb tickah leads 2-1 on "Dutchie" Clegg against Nigel "Protect my manor" Farage. Has anyone else noticed that Al-Beeb journalists are as reliable as a Puerto-Rican boxing-judge? *
* No disrespect to Puerto-Rican boxing-judges....0 -
Thanks for pointing that out. Dimbleby now addresses a follow up on Clegg on infrastructure for population growth.SimonStClare said:
And on 'twitter' Auntie is running an instant rebuttal service - can you spot a theme..?TCPoliticalBetting said:Dimbleby has twice picked on what Farage has said.
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Sky News keeps cutting out for me. Anyone else?0
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Not following the worm but according to twitter reaction to bickering very negative for both.0
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That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.0 -
Clegg's stats are horrendously misleading. Deliberately mixing Manchester and Greater Manchester, comparing British trade to total EU trade in percentage terms. For a straight talker he's deliberately trying to trick people with stats he knows are misleading.0
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It's going to be fairly shouty all the way through. I still expect Dimblebore to try to wrongfoot one of them sooner or later with some left-field question.0
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Nobody watching @ Toms towers---wouldn't if could---but it's fun reading the PB comments!0
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Selecitve quoting theme perhaps?SimonStClare said:
And on 'twitter' Auntie is running an instant rebuttal service - can you spot a theme..?TCPoliticalBetting said:Dimbleby has twice picked on what Farage has said.
FACTCHECKING
19:10: Anthony Reuben Head of statistics, BBC News Nigel Farage says "they sell us more than we sell them". In 2013 the UK's exports to the EU totalled £154bn while we imported £218bn worth of goods.
FACTCHECKING
19:26: Emily Craig Political analyst, BBC News Nick Clegg says there aren't 29 million people living in Romania and Bulgaria. The World Bank puts the figure at 28.6 million. I think we might let UKIP round up.0 -
I think the comedy circuit is safe post 2015.0
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Clegg now turning a new attack on Farage as "turning back" on gay marriage etc....0
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I picked up on that.maaarsh said:
Clegg's stats are horrendously misleading. Deliberately mixing Manchester and Greater Manchester, comparing British trade to total EU trade in percentage terms. For a straight talker he's deliberately trying to trick people with stats he knows are misleading.
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IndyRef - best prices
Yes 7/2 (various)
No 1/4 (Betfair)0 -
"Yes we do. Yes we do. Yes we do."
*chortle*0 -
Tory seats doubling? PB surger!!Stuart_Dickson said:Just had a look at that Populus monthly summary. Very frightening findings for Lamont's hopeless Slabbers and Rennie's hopeless Con-merchants.
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
SNP 34% (+14)
Lab 34% (-8)
Con 18% (+1)
LD 7% (-12)
UKIP 3% (+2)
Grn 2% (+1)
Baxter:
Lab 35 seats (-6 seats)
SNP 20 seats (+14 seats)
Con 2 seats (+1 seat)
LD 2 seats (-9 seats)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140401-Populus_FT-March-2014.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=18&LAB=34&LIB=7&NAT=34®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
There is a rare variety of Madeira called "Rainwater", Jack.JackW said:@AveryLP
Whilst on the madeira theme and filed under "one that got away" I was in an Edinburgh antique shop, many moons back, and I spotted some silver wine labels with one misspelt "medeira". I thought it simply a novelty and although very modestly priced I didn't buy it.
Move on some years and these unusually spelt label make big bucks.
A silver wine label on an opaque decanter would be fun.
A good way to be economical with the guests? Literally.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn
"Interesting role reversal this week. Farage adopts Clegg's cool, calm, rational style - and Clegg is doing a shouty Farage. #europedebate"0 -
https://mobile.twitter.com/TimMontgomerie
"Farage's anti-immigration, anti-war, anti-EU, anti-big business, anti-politician message undoubtedly will be / is very potent #europedebate"0 -
"What steps would you take about climate change?"
The proper kipper answer should be:
"Unfurl and open my umbrella".0 -
A Scotsman economical with the guests ??AveryLP said:
There is a rare variety of Madeira called "Rainwater", Jack.JackW said:@AveryLP
Whilst on the madeira theme and filed under "one that got away" I was in an Edinburgh antique shop, many moons back, and I spotted some silver wine labels with one misspelt "medeira". I thought it simply a novelty and although very modestly priced I didn't buy it.
Move on some years and these unusually spelt label make big bucks.
A silver wine label on an opaque decanter would be fun.
A good way to be economical with the guests?
Shirley Shum Mishtake !!
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"Ghost towns"Charles said:
That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.
It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.
F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.0 -
Another pathetic pre-planned attack about turning the clock back. Has he not noticed they go down like a bucket of cold sick?0
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In an OE tie, cut back starched collar and lightly pin-striped worsted suit?dodrade said:
Farage definitely going for the WWC traditional labour vote tonight.Danny565 said:Farage railing against "big business"... another sign he's moving UKIP to a Front National-type leftwing populist economic platform. A very smart move considering his potential voters' views.
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At least the fop chicken is taking on more hefty matters than IN or OUT of Europe.
David Cameron should take his own advice – and shut up about the England football shirts
David Cameron agrees with Helen Grant: the new England football shirt is too expensive. Mrs Grant, the sports minister, said that the £90 price of the shirt by Nike “can’t be right”. The PM’s spokesman says: “He does agree with Helen Grant. I am sure all England fans would welcome a rethink.”
Words fail me. Well, almost.
Where to start with this? How best to explain just how lamentably stupid, cravenly populist and intellectually vacuous this is?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100265945/david-cameron-should-take-his-own-advice-and-shut-up-about-the-england-football-shirts/
LOL0 -
Did Farage say Nigel Lawson was independent?0
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The only point I would make is that it is the parents and grandparents of these young people who cant afford to buy houses in rural communities who chose to sell to city slickers at vastly inflated prices for a quick buck. They could have sold to local young people but the sight of London/SE £signs made them reach for the white settlers cash and turn their backs on their own young people. It is exactly the same up here in the Highlands.JosiasJessop said:
"Ghost towns"Charles said:
That's why it is so difficult to judge when it will deflate. Ghost towns like my area are much more likely.taffys said:I nearly bought one 10 years ago for £565,000...
This isn;t a classic ballooon, in that many of the inflators of it are unleveraged wealthy foreigners looking for a bolthole. Increases in interest rates might not necessarily affect them.
Just go to any scenic area of the country out of season (e.g. the Cornish coast, Derbyshire Peaks) and you will find ghost 'towns'. The rich buy holiday homes but can't face using them in winter.
It's terrible for the young local populations who cannot afford to compete.
F' the mansion tax. Tax - heavily - second homes and rented holiday homes. They do no social good and kill communities.
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YES! Calamity Clegg now banging on about Independence. More please. Much, much more.
It's almost as good as having Osbrowne or Cammie banging on about it.
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Clegg's problem is all his soundbites sound like they're written by and aimed at a small metropolitan elite.0
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God Nick is going to force me to vote "Out" in 2017.0
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So Farage is claiming the House of Commons library is lying?0
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Clegg on the ropes0
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Clearly the BBC couldn't find anyone pro EU - the questions so far have been great for Farage. Interesting to see if they're storing up a 'gotcha' finale0
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With the first debate, I'd say it was pretty even, but of course as Farage and his opinions are more popular he was bound to win any poll on who 'won' the debate.
This one, Clegg has gotten better as it goes on (well until the questions on EU bureacracy at least), but Farage is really doing well tonight and appreciably better than Clegg I think; I would very much expect Farage to 'win' the debate by a larger margin this time.
However, that being said, there's a reason I put 'win' in inverted commas. I still don't think that harms Clegg, and in fact he's still won as well. It would be much better for him if he'd showed Farage up (but I don't see that happening in the last 15 minutes), but people who support the opinions Clegg is espousing are already in a minority, so him coming off worse in a head to head with Farage may well help galvanise those people a little - it might not, but as as been said before, the LDs are already facing a wipe out in the EU elections. There's literally nothing, however bad, he could say or do which would make the situation worse.0 -
This is getting brutal for Clegg. I didn;t watch last week - was he this poor?0
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They're calling each other liars now. The grownups were right to sit this out.0
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https://mobile.twitter.com/TimMontgomerie
"I liked Clegg's performance last week because he was reasonable. He's become nasty Nick this week and not so effective #europedebate"
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If they were pro-EU questions people would be claiming it was a sign of BBC bias. Since they're good questions for Farage...maaarsh said:Clearly the BBC couldn't find anyone pro EU - the questions so far have been great for Farage. Interesting to see if they're storing up a 'gotcha' finale
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Against almost any other politician than Farage, that would not be a noticable flaw, as it is endemic behaviour in the main parties. Clegg really struggling with these later questions - thank goodness for him in was a potential win-no lose scenario even if he gets whooped.Mick_Pork said:
Just as damaging his soundbites sound exactly like soundbites and are delivered exactly like soundbites.corporeal said:Clegg's problem is all his soundbites sound like they're written by and aimed at a small metropolitan elite.
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Number of minds changed tonight... Zero.0
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Jonathan said:
They're calling each other liars now. The grownups were right to sit this out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeS9yHxMNO4
Aye, right.
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Farage.
Winning here.0
This discussion has been closed.